DAFTAR ISI
HALAMAN JUDUL........................................................................................
i
HALAMAN PENGESAHAN ..........................................................................
ii
HALAMAN PERNYATAAN .........................................................................
iii
HALAMAN PERSEMBAHAN ......................................................................
iv
PRAKATA .......................................................................................................
v
DAFTAR ISI ....................................................................................................
vii
DAFTAR TABEL ............................................................................................
x
DAFTAR GAMBAR .......................................................................................
xii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN ....................................................................................
xiv
INTISARI.........................................................................................................
xv
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................
xvi
BAB I
PENDAHULUAN ........................................................................... 1.1 Latar Belakang .......................................................................... 1.2 Keaslian Penelitian .................................................................... 1.3 Rumusan Masalah ..................................................................... 1.4 Pertanyaan Penelitian ................................................................ 1.5 Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................... 1.6 Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................... 1.7 Sistematika Penulisan ...............................................................
1 1 9 12 13 14 14 15
BAB II
LANDASAN TEORI ...................................................................... 2.1 Teori .......................................................................................... 2.1.1 Teori Pertumbuhan ........................................................ 2.1.2 Teori Pertumbuhan Klasik ............................................ 2.1.3 Teori Pertumbuhan Keynesian (Harrod-Domar) .......... 2.1.4 Teori Pertumbuhan Neoklasik (Solow Neoclassical Growth Model) .............................................................. 2.1.5 Teori Pertumbuhan Endogen......................................... 2.1.6 Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) ................... 2.1.7 Belanja Pemerintah dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi........... 2.1.8 Investasi Swasta dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ............... 2.1.9 Tenaga Kerja dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .................... 2.1.10 Kerangka Teoritis .......................................................... 2.2 Hasil Peneltian Sebelumnya ...................................................... 2.3 Hipotesis.................................................................................... 2.4 Model Penelitian .......................................................................
16 16 16 17 18 18 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 32 33
vii
BAB III METODA PENELITIAN ............................................................... 3.1 Desain Penelitian ....................................................................... 3.2 Metoda Pengumpulan Data ....................................................... 3.3 Definisi Operasional.................................................................. 3.4 Metoda Analisis ........................................................................ 3.4.1 Model Regresi Data Panel ............................................. 3.4.1.1 Model Common Effect (CEM) .......................... 3.4.1.2 Model Fixed Effect (FEM)................................ 3.4.1.3 Model Random Effect (REM) ........................... 3.4.2 Pemilihan Model Terbaik .............................................. 3.4.2.1 Uji Chow........................................................... 3.4.2.2 Uji LM .............................................................. 3.4.2.3 Uji Hausman ..................................................... 3.4.3 Uji Asumsi Klasik ......................................................... 3.4.3.1 Uji Multikolinearitas......................................... 3.4.3.2 Uji Heteroskedastisitas ..................................... 3.4.3.3 Uji Autokorelasi................................................ 3.4.4 Uji Signifikansi ............................................................. 3.4.4.1 Uji Koefisien Regresi Parsial (Uji t) ................. 3.4.4.2 Uji Koefisien Regresi Secara Serempak (Uji F)
36 36 36 37 39 41 42 42 43 44 44 45 45 46 46 46 47 48 48 49
Bab IV
51 51 51 58 58 62 65 68 71 73 73 73 74 76 76 76 77 77 79
ANALISIS ...................................................................................... 4.1 Deskripsi Data ........................................................................... 4.1.1 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi Jawa Tengah ............. 4.1.2 Kondisi Belanja Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Tengah ..... 4.1.2.1 Belanja Infrastruktur ......................................... 4.1.2.2 Belanja Pendidikan ........................................... 4.1.2.3 Belanja Kesehatan ............................................ 4.1.3 Kondisi Ketenagakerjaan Provinsi Jawa Tengah .......... 4.1.4 Kondisi Investasi Swasta Provinsi Jawa Tengah .......... 4.2 Hasil Regresi ............................................................................. 4.2.1 Uji Chow ....................................................................... 4.2.2 Uji Hausman.................................................................. 4.2.3 Uji LM ........................................................................... 4.3 Uji Asumsi Klasik ..................................................................... 4.3.1 Uji Multikolinearitas ..................................................... 4.3.2 Uji Heteroskedastisitas .................................................. 4.3.3 Uji Autokorelasi ............................................................ 4.4 Uji Hipotesis ............................................................................. 4.5 Pembahasan ............................................................................... 4.5.1 Pengaruh Belanja Infrastruktur terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ........................................................................ 4.5.2 Pengaruh Belanja Pendidikan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ........................................................................ 4.5.3 Pengaruh Belanja Kesehatan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ........................................................................
79 81 83
viii
4.5.4 Pengaruh Investasi Swasta terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ........................................................................ 4.5.5 Pengaruh Tenaga Kerja terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ........................................................................ Bab V
86 87
SIMPULAN DAN SARAN ............................................................ 5.1 Simpulan ................................................................................... 5.2 Implikasi .................................................................................... 5.3 Keterbatasan .............................................................................. 5.4 Saran ..........................................................................................
91 91 91 92 93
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ......................................................................................
94
LAMPIRAN .....................................................................................................
102
ix
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 1.1
Hasil Berbagai Penelitian Sebelumnya Mengenai Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .....................................................................................
9
Tabel 3.1
Pengumpulan Data ......................................................................
36
Tabel 4.1
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten/Kota dan Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) .......................................
56
Pertumbuhan Sektoral PDRB Kabupaten Klaten, Kabupaten Kudus, Kabupaten Batang, Kabupaten Sragen, Kota Semarang dan Kota Surakarta, 2010-2012 (%) .................
57
Belanja Infrastruktur Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, konstan) .....................
60
Belanja Pendidikan Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, konstan) .....................
63
Belanja Kesehatan Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, konstan) ....................
66
Jumlah Tenaga Kerja Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (orang) ...............................................
69
Pertumbuhan Tenaga Kerja Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) ...................................
70
Jumlah Investasi Swasta Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, konstan) ..
72
Tabel 4.9
Hasil Uji Chow ...........................................................................
73
Tabel 4.10
Hasil Uji Hausman ......................................................................
73
Tabel 4.11
Hasil Uji LM ..............................................................................
74
Tabel 4.12
Hasil Regresi ..............................................................................
74
Tabel 4.13
Nilai Intersep Akhir Kabupaten/Kota .........................................
75
Tabel 4.14
Correlation Matrix Antarvariabel Bebas ...................................
76
Tabel 4.15
Perbandingan Weighted Statistics dan Unweighted Statistics ....
77
Tabel 4.16
Uji Signifikansi Uji Koefisien Determinasi (R-squared), Uji Parsial (t test) dan Uji Serempak (F test) dan Interpretasinya
78
Tabel 4.2
Tabel 4.3 Tabel 4.4 Tabel 4.5 Tabel 4.6 Tabel 4.7 Tabel 4.8
x
Tabel 4.17
Tabel 4.18
Tabel 4.19
Perbandingan Belanja Langsung dan Tidak Langsung pada Urusan Pendidikan di Kabupaten Sragen, Kabupaten Jepara, dan Kabupaten Kudus, 2012 .......................................................
83
Perbandingan Belanja Langsung dan Tidak Langsung pada Urusan Kesehatan di Kabupaten Sragen, Kabupaten Jepara, dan Kabupaten Kudus, 2012 .......................................................
85
Pertumbuhan Tenaga Kerja dan Angkatan Kerja Berdasarkan Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) ............................................................................
88
xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1
Rata-rata Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi di Pulau Jawa dan Indonesia, 2005-2012 (%, ADHK, tanpa migas) ............
4
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi di Pulau Jawa, 2005-2012 (%, ADHK, tanpa migas) ....................................
5
Rata-rata Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%, ADHK, tanpa migas) .......................................................
6
Trend Belanja Infrastruktur, Belanja Pendidikan, Belanja Kesehatan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (ADHK, tanpa migas) ............................................................
7
Trend Investasi Swasta dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (ADHK, tanpa migas) ............................................................
7
Trend Tenaga Kerja dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (ADHK, tanpa migas) ............................................................
8
Gambar 2.1
Kerangka Teoritis ..................................................................
26
Gambar 2.2
Kerangka Hubungan Antarvariabel .......................................
35
Gambar 3.1
Tahapan Analisis ...................................................................
41
Gambar 4.1
PDRB Menurut Lapangan Usaha ADHK Tahun 2000 di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (triliun rupiah, tanpa migas) ..................................................
52
Distribusi PDRB Menurut Lapangan Usaha ADHK Tahun 2000 di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%, tanpa migas).....................................................................
53
Pertumbuhan PDRB Menurut Lapangan Usaha ADHK Tahun 2000 di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%, tanpa migas) ....................................................................
53
PDRB Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Menurut Lapangan Usaha, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, ADHK, tanpa migas) .....................................
55
Gambar 1.2 Gambar 1.3
Gambar 1.4
Gambar 1.5
Gambar 1.6
Gambar 4.2
Gambar 4.3
Gambar 4.4
xii
Gambar 4.5
Gambar 4.6
Gambar 4.7
Gambar 4.8
Gambar 4.9 Gambar 4.10 Gambar 4.11
Proporsi Belanja Infrastruktur terhadap Total Belanja APBD Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) ......................................................................
61
Proporsi Belanja Pendidikan terhadap Total Belanja APBD Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) ......................................................................
64
Proporsi Belanja Kesehatan terhadap Total Belanja APBD Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) ......................................................................
67
Panjang Jalan dan Penambahan Panjang Jalan yang Menjadi Kewenangan Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (km) ............................
81
Angka Harapan Hidup Menurut Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (tahun) ........................
85
Komposisi Tingkat Pendidikan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (%) .............................
88
Hasil Survei Kegiatan Dunia Usaha (SKDU), 2009-2012 .....
89
xiii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1
PDRB ADHB Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, tanpa migas) .................................
102
PDRB ADHK Tahun 2000 Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2005-2012 (miliar rupiah, tanpa migas) ...................................................
103
Lampiran 3
PDRB Deflator .......................................................................
104
Lampiran 4
Data Dasar ..............................................................................
105
Lampiran 5
Data Dasar Logaritma Natural dan Persentase untuk Regresi dengan E-Views 6.0...................................................
112
Lampiran 6
Hasil Regresi dengan CEM ....................................................
118
Lampiran 7
Hasil Regresi dengan FEM ....................................................
119
Lampiran 8
Cross Section Fixed Effects....................................................
120
Lampiran 9
Hasil Regresi dengan REM ....................................................
121
Lampiran 10
Cross Section Random Effects ...............................................
122
Lampiran 11
Hasil Regresi dengan REM dan White Period Standard Errors and Covariance ..........................................................
123
Cross Section Random Effects pada REM dengan White Period Standard Errors and Covariance.....................
124
Lampiran 13
Hasil Uji Chow.......................................................................
125
Lampiran 14
Hasil Uji Hausman .................................................................
126
Lampiran 15
Hasil Uji LM ..........................................................................
127
Lampiran 16
Hasil Uji Heteroskedastisitas dengan Metoda White No Cross Term .......................................................................
134
Lampiran 2
Lampiran 12
xiv
