Bagian I Pendahuluan
Economic planning • Economic planning A component of public policy that controls economic activity. It can involve the use of direct controls, such as rationing and price, rent, and wage limits, or indirect controls, such as monetary and fiscal policy. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Economic planning the process by which key economic decisions are made or influenced by central governments. It contrasts with the laissez-faire approach that, in its purest form, eschews any attempt to guide the economy, relying instead on market forces to determine the speed, direction, and nature of economic evolution. (https://www.britannica.com/topic/economic-planning)
Economic development
• Economic development An economic transformation of a country or a region that leads to the improvement of the well-being and economic capabilities of its residents. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Economic development. Progress in an economy, or the qualitative measure of this. Economic development usually refers to the adoption of new technologies, transition from agriculture-based to industry-based economy, and general improvement in living standards. (http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/economic-development.html)
Development economics • Development economics. The branch of economics devoted to the understanding of the process of economic development. Development economists are particularly concerned with policies to raise the standard of living in less developed countries. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics) • Development economics. A branch of economics that focuses on improving the economies of developing countries. Development economics considers how to promote economic growth by improving factors such as health, education, working conditions, domestic and international policies, and market conditions in developing countries. It examines both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors relating to the structure of a developing economy and how that economy can create effective domestic and international growth. (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/developmenteconomics.asp#ixzz4p5EFrO6p)
Economic growth is far below the government's target Average 2015 2016* 2017** 2018** 2019** 2015-19
RPJM target
5.5
6.6
7.1
7.5
8.0
6.9
Actual & projection
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.4
5.9
5.2
-0.6 -1.6
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-1.7
Difference * Estimate ** Projection
Bagian II Ekonomi Dunia Membaik, Indonesia?
IMF raises global growth forecasts, gaining momentum—for now IMF: “…“ the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies.”
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* World GDP growth Advanced economies - United States - Euro area - Japan Developing economies - China - India - Asean-5 Indonesia World trade volume growth
3.4 1.4 2.2 -0.4 1.6 5.0 7.7 6.9 5.1 5.6 3.3
3.4 1.8 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.6 7.3 7.3 4.6 5.0 3.4
3.4 2.1 2.6 2.0 1.2 4.2 6.9 7.9 4.8 4.8 2.7
* Projection. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2014 and October 2016; and World Economic Outlook Update, July 2017.
3.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.0 4.1 6.7 6.8 4.9 5.0 2.2
3.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.3 4.6 6.7 7.2 5.1 5.1 4.0
3.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 0.6 4.8 6.4 7.7 5.2 5.3 3.9
Turning point? • Global manufacturing has been strengthening since last summer, along with a pickup in shipment and trade. • Emerging and developing economies, led by China and India, continue to contribute more than three-quarters of total global GDP growth in 2017. Adding to this is a projected normalization of conditions in Brazil and Russia, which have been facing deep recessions. • stronger-than-expected economic activity in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Source: https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/03/14/maintaining-the-positive-momentum-of-the-global-economy/
Pola pertumbuhan Indonesia vs dunia 10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Indonesia
Sources: BPS_Statistics Indonesia and IMF
World
Bagian III Kinerja Perekonomian Indonesia Melemah: Perlu Energi Tambahan dan Darah Segar
The rise and decline of Indonesian economy: GDP growth 1961-2017 (%) 12.0
Trendline-polynomial 9.8
6.2
6.1
9.2
-2.3
8.4
5.7
6.3
6.4 5.0 5.0 5.0
6.0
Pertamina crisis 1.1
9.1
8.5
4.6
4.9
Global financial crisis
3.5 1.1
Oil price collapse
The fall of Old Order
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
-13.1
Economic crisis and the end of New Order/Soeharto era
* First semester. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
The declining trend of economic growth from 6% to 5% GDP growth, year-on-year 6.5
6.4 6.2
6.1
6.0 5.6
5.5 5.0
5.0 4.9
5.0
5.0
4.5 4.0
2010
2011
* First semester. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017*
The second quarter of 2016 was a turning point? Not yet!!! Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 5.9
5.8
5.6
6.3 6.4
6.2 6.1
6.0 5.8 5.6
5.7 5.1
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.2 4.9
5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0
4.7 4.7 4.7
4.5 4.3
Q1-09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-17 Q2
4.1
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..
Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and Sumetera suffered the most
2015 : 3.5% 2016 : 4.3% 2017*: 4.1% Share : 21.7%
2015 : 1.3% 2016 : 2.% 2017*: 4.4% Share: 8.2%
2015 : 5.5% 2016 : 5.6% 2017*: 5.4% Share : 58.7%
* First semester. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2015 : 8.2% 2016 : 7.4% 2017*: 6.5% Share : 6.1%
2015 : 10.3% 2016 : 5.9% 2017*: 3.1% Share : 3.1%
2015 : 6.6% 2016 : 7.5% 2017*: 4.5% Share: 2.3%
Analogi perekonomian dengan anatomi tubuh manusia
Menjadi juara: asupan harus bermutu, kerja keras, dan disiplin
Pengalaman pribadi: ikut lomba marathon tanpa latihan dan persiapan memadai Mekani Marathon, Lombok Barat, April 2017
Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP), 2015
Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP), 2015
China
153.3
China
Thailand
151.3
South Africa
South Africa
149.2
Thailand
Singapore
129.7
Malaysia
India
52.6 43.9
Philippines
41.8
Indonesia
39.1
144.8 128.3 121.1 108.7
India
63.1
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Brazil
67.9
Cambodia
173.4
Singapore
111.9
Brazil
179.0
Vietnam
125.2
Vietnam
194.4
Pada tahun 1990 di Indonesia mencapai 51,8%.
76.7
Bangladesh
59.7
Philippines
59.1
Cambodia Indonesia
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
53.9 46.7
Stock market capitalization Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP) 234
South Africa
154.2 219
Singapore
159.5 129 124.7
Malaysia 88
Thailand
24 82
Philippines
32 74
China
48.5 72
India Indonesia
31.1 41 16.3 28 35.1
Brazil Vietnam
27 []*
* 2003 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
2015
2000
Size of local currency bonds market: Indonesia is still lagging behind in the long-term financing (% of GDP, September 2016) 250
Corporate bonds
Government bonds
16 200 150
80
45
57
25
20 6
45
43
46
28 s ilip pi ne
na
Ph
st Ea
gi ng
Em er
Ch i
As ia
g Ko n
d
Ho ng
ila n Th a
re Sin ga po
ia M
al ay s
a Ko re
Ja
pa
n
0
Source: Asian Development Bank, Asia Bond Monitor, November 2016.
1 23
2 15
on es ia
52
33
In d
56
20
m
50
33
na
45
Vi et
208
100
Selected top-30 merchandise exporters 2015 (2010) Rank 1 (1) 2 (2) 3 (3) 4 (4) 6 (7) 7 (11) 14 (14) 17 (16) 19 (20) 20 (19) 21 (25) 22 (17) 23 (23) 25 (22) 27 (39) 30 (27)
Value (Billion US$) Country China United States Germany Japan Korea, Republic of Hong Kong, China Singapore Chinese Taipei India United Arab Emirates
Thailand Saudi Arabia Malaysia Brazil Viet Nam Indonesia
2015 2,275 1,505 1,329 625 527 511 351 285 267 265 214 202 200 191 162 150
2010 1,578 1,278 1,269 770 466 401 352 275 216 235 195 254 199 202 72 158
Share (%) 2015 13.8 9.1 8.1 3.8 3.2 3.1 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9
2010 10.4 8.4 8.3 5.1 3.1 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.5 1.0
Growth Manufactures (%) exports as % of 2010-15 total exports, 2015 44.2 94.3 17.8 64.0 4.7 84.1 -18.8 88.0 13.1 89.6 27.4 65.7 -0.3 77.0 3.6 99.0 23.6 70.6 12.8 7.5 9.7 77.8 -20.5 18.4 0.5 66.9 -5.4 38.1 125.0 76.3 -5.1 40.9
Sources: World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2011 and 2016; and World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Selected top-30 merchandise importers 2015 (2010) Rank 1 (1) 2 (2) 3 (3) 4 (4) 7 (9) 9 (10) 13 (13) 16 (15) 18 (17) 19 (25) 22 (22) 25 (20) 26 (26) 27 (31) 28 (34)
Value (Billion US$) Country United States China Germany Japan Hong Kong, China Korea, Republic of India Singapore Chinese Taipei United Arab Emirates
Thailand Brazil Malaysia Saudi Arabia Viet Nam
30 (29) Indonesia
Share (%)
2015 2,308 1,682 1,050 648 559 436 392 297 238 230 203 179 176 172 166
2010 1,968 1,395 1,067 693 442 425 323 311 251 170 182 191 165 107 85
2015 13.8 10.1 6.3 3.9 3.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
2010 12.8 9.1 6.9 4.5 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6
143
132
0.9
0.9
Growth Manufactures (%) imports as % of 2010-15 total imports, 2015 17.3 78.9 20.6 61.7 -1.6 72.6 -6.5 59.9 26.5 91.2 2.6 62.1 21.4 52.7 -4.5 70.1 -5.2 n.a. 35.3 74.8 11.5 72.2 -6.3 75.9 6.7 70.9 60.7 80.7 95.3 76.6 8.3
58.9
Sources: World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2011 and 2016; and World Bank, World Development Indicators.
he utilization of such implementation flexibility may well be
Indonesia has actively used restrictive trade and investment measures Figure 28: Indonesia has actively used restrictive act on
quo, to e
ing. s ity to tions rds ies. As vides
on of cies. be for he
trade and investment measures (number of restrictive measures on trade and investments passed and implemented June 2009-to date, select South East Asian countries) 250
Passed
Implemented
200 150 100 50 0
Source: Global Trade Alert (accessed 13/11/2015); World Bank staff calculations Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Reforming Amid Uncertainty, December 2015, p. 35.
among South East Asian comparators (Figure 28). On the
Strategi menyerang lebih ampuh, musim 2016-17
Bagian IV Transformasi Struktural: Dominasi Sektor Jasa Terlalu Cepat?
GDP growth by sector Sectors
Share 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-17 Q2-17 2017*
Agriculture, forestry & fishery
4.59 4.20 4.24 3.77 3.25
7.12
3.33
13.76
Mining and Quarrying
3.02 2.53 0.43 -3.42 1.06
-0.64
2.24
7.65
Manufacturing industry
5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29
4.24
3.54
20.37
10.06 5.23 5.90 0.90 5.39
1.60
-2.53
1.19
Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling
3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.60
4.39
3.67
0.07
Construction
6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22
5.95
6.96
10.17
Wholesale & retail trade, cars & motorcycles reparations
5.40 4.81 5.18 2.59 3.93
4.96
3.78
13.13
Transportation and warehousing
7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.74
8.03
8.37
5.24
Accommodation, food and beverages
6.64 6.80 5.77 4.31 4.94
4.68
5.07
2.87
9.13 10.88
3.81
Electricity and gas
Information and communication
12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.87
Finance and insurance
9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.90
5.99
5.94
4.25
Real estate
7.41 6.54 5.00 4.11 4.30
3.67
3.86
2.82
Business services
7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36
6.80
8.14
1.75
Public adm., defense, and compulsory social security
2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.19
0.22
-0.03
3.59
Education
8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84
4.09
0.90
3.18
Health and social activities
7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5.00
7.10
6.40
1.07
Other services
5.76 6.40 8.93 8.08 7.80
8.01
8.63
1.76
Gross domestic product
6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02
5.01
5.01 100.00
* First semester; excluding taxes minus subsidies. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
The service sectors have dominated the Indonesian economy: too early? Economic structure of Indonesia: tradables vs. non-tradables (% of GDP)
Economic structure of China: good-producing sectors and service sertors (% of GDP) 59
80 70
55 54
60 50 40
46
30
45 41
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
20
Good-producing sectors Tradables
Non-tradables
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank
Services
Indonesia’s services trade restrictiveness index*
* The indices take values between zero and one, with one being the most restrictive.
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 32.
Ten out of twelve service sectors have excess demand, the other two have excess supply Excess supply, percent, LHS; 100 percent RHS
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 31.
Manufacturing matters: the share of manufacturing industry continued to decline Manufacturing value added as percent of GDP Percent of GDP
30
29.0 27.8
28 26 24 22
22.0 20
20.51 20.47
18 16 14 12 10
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
12.0
Note: Until 2009 based on GDP 2000 Serie, since 2010 based on GDP 2010 serie. * First quarter. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
GDP and manufacturing growth percent
7.5 7.0
7
GDP Total 6
5.6 5.5
Manufacturing, Total 5.1 5.0
5
4.4 4.3 4 2011
2012
2013
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2014
2015
2016
Non-oil & gas manufacturing
Jumlah perusahaan manufaktur besar-menengah
US$ billions
Trade deficit: manufacturing products 70 50 30 10 -10 -30 -50 -70 -90 -110 -130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Imports Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Exports
Surplus (deficit)
Trade deficit: food products Trade account of food (SITC 0) 2000-2016, US$ billions 15
Exports
Imports
Surplus (deficit)
10
5
0
-5
-10
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-15
Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the production slump, making imports increasingly undermined the economy
-789 (Imports)
1,398 (Exports)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities. Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of fuel ethanol and biodiesel is also included.
Bagian V Domestic Demand under Pressure, but the Purchasing Power does not Decrease
Daya beli masyarakat tidak turun!!! •
Tidak ada kejadian luar biasa yang menyebabkan daya beli masyarakat secara nasional mengalami penurunan.
•
Penurunan omzet atau laba beberapa outlet pasar modern tidak bisa dijadikan acuan terjadinya penurunan daya beli masyarakat.
•
Begitu banyak ragam barang dan jasa serta berbagai kelompok pendapatan. Sangat boleh jadi penjualan beberapa produk turun dan daya beli kelompok pendapatan tertentu juga turun. Tetapi, secara keseluruhan naik, yang tercermin dari peningkatan riil konsumsi masyarakat sekitar 5%, semetara secara nominal naik sekitar 8%.
•
Ada indikasi penurunan konsumsi (bukan daya beli) kelompok menengah-atas untuk berjaga-jaga dengan menaikkan tabungan (switching to saving).
•
Ada pula yang belanjanya beralih ke online system/e-commerce.
GDP growth by expenditure (percent) Share 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2016 Private consumption
4.26 5.05 5.49 5.43 5.15 4.96
5.01
4.93
56.50
-3.70 5.54 6.68 8.18 12.19 -0.62
6.62
8.02
1.16
General government consumption
3.99 5.52 4.53 6.75 1.16 5.32 -0.15
2.71
9.45
Gross domestic fixed capital formation
6.69 8.86 9.13 5.01 4.45 5.01
4.48
4.81
32.57
Exports of goods and services
15.28 14.77 1.61 4.17 1.07 -2.12 -1.74
8.04
19.08
Less imports of goods and services
16.58 15.03 8.00 1.86 2.12 -6.41 -2.27
5.02
18.31
Non-profit private consumption
Gross domestic product * First quarter. ** Withiout changes in investory (1.73)%. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
6.38 6.17 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88
5.02
5.01 100.00**
Konsumsi Rumah Tangga
Composition of GDP by expenditure, 2016 (%) 9
1
Private consump on
32
Gross fixed capital forma on
Top-20 Mid-40 Bottom-40
58
Government consump on Exports minus imports
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Distribution of spending by “income” group March 2017, percent 17
Bottom-40 46 Mid-40 Top-20
36
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Bottom-40 is under considerable pressure •
The majority are farmers, farm workers, construction workers and other informal workers, and factory workers.
•
Their purchasing power generally have decreased for quite long enough.
•
Some can still survive by working longer hours, side jobs, or family members enter the labor market, so that family income does not go down significantly.
•
The delay of disbursement of social assistance funds.
•
The decline of purchasing power of this group on the national purchasing power is relatively small because their consumption share to the total private consumption is relatively low.
Began to spread to the lower-middle •
Elimination of of electricity subsidies for 900 VA for approximately 19 million customers. The average spending on electricity of this group went up from Rp 80,000 to Rp 170,000.
•
Salaries of civil servants, soldiers, and police officers have not risen in the last two years. Also due to budget cuts for current expenditures.
Farmers' purchasing power under pressure Farmers' terms of trade 104 103
102.95
102.87
103 102.02 102 101.49
102
101.31
101 101
100 100.02 100 99
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
NTP: perbandingan indeks harga yang diterima petani terhadap indeks harga yang dibayar petani, yang mencerminkan tingkat kemampuan/daya beli petani di pedesaan. NTP juga mencerminkan daya tukar (terms of trade) produk pertanian terhadap barang dan jasa yang dikonsumsi maupun untuk biaya produksi petani.
100.15
99.95
Farmers' purchasing power under pressure Farmers' terms of trade - food 104.1 104
102.0 102
100
98
98.1
96.7 96.7
96
95.4 94
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
5
4
3
2
Jan'17
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Jan'16
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Jan'15
12
11
10
Sep'14
92
Informal workers in rural sufferred more than in urban Daily real wages, rupiah Farm workers
Construction workers
40,000
69,000
39,500
68,000
39,000 38,500
67,000
38,000
66,000
37,500 65,000
37,000
4
Jan'17
10
7
4
Jan'16
10
7
4
Jan'15
10
7
4
Jan'14
4
Jan'17
10
7
4
Jan'16
10
7
4
Jan'15
10
7
4
64,000
Jan'14
36,500
Change of daily real wages, year-on-year, percent Nov’15-Nov’14
Nov’16-Nov’15
Apr’17-Apr’16
Apr’17-Nov’14
Farm workers
-1.67
-1.80
-0.03
-2.38
Construction workers
0.15
-0.91
-1.43
-1.80
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Wages: barely able to keep up with inflation
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Working hours
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia
An increase at the household level?
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Grappling with the issue of overwork: 26.3% of workers in Indonesia worked 49+ hours per week
Source: Nikkei Asian Review http://s.nikkei.com/2hvdkNO
Takes longer to find a job
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Dari demographic bonus menjadi demographic burden: youth unemployment Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled ILO estimate, 2014) Libya
48.9
Egypt
42.0
Iraq
34.6
Syria
30.1
Saudi Arabia
29.5
Indonesia
21.8
China
10.5
India
10.4
Malaysia
6.7
Vietnam
6.3
Thailand
Source: World Bank.
3.9
Motorcycle sales and growth dropped sharply since 2015 Thousands
Motorcycle sales and growth 9,000
40 8,044
8,000
7,399
30
7,142 6,708
7,000
6,281
6,000 5,000
7,771 7,909
4,471
6,215
5,882
20
4,714
8.8
4,000
10
1.8
3,000
0
-7.3
2,000
1,579
-6.4 1,000
-11.2 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sales (thousand unit)-LHS
2012
2013
2014
2015
-10
-11.2
-15.2
0
1,402
-20 2016 2016* 2017*
Growth (yoy, %)-RHS
* January-March. Sources: Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Indonesia (AISI) and ASEAN Automotive Federation.
Thousands
Car sales increased by 6.0 percent in Q1-2017 1,400
80 1,230
1,200
1,208
60
1,116 1,062 1,013
1,000
40 894 765
800
20
6.0
4.8 604
600
0
534 484
483 433 400 301
300
318
355
-20
-16.12
319
267
283
200
-40
0
-60
Sales-LHS * First quarter. Source: Gaikindo
Growth (%)-RHS
Prioritas perencanaan
Perencanaan sejatinya mengutamakan pemberdayaan Bottom-40.
Perencanaan Fiskal
Tax revenue target is still too ambitious, tax amnesty is not enough to cover the shortfall Summary of State Budget 2014-2017 (IDR trillion unless otherwise indicated) 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 Actual Revised Actual Revised Actual audited Budget Budget audited Budget budget (Prelim) A. Revenues
2017
2017 Revised Budget Budget
1,550
1,794
1,762
1,508
1,822
1,786
1,552
1,750
1,736
I. Tax revenues
1,147
1,380
1,489
1,240
1,547
1,539
1,284
1,499
1,428
a. Income tax
546
644
679
602
757
856
667
788
784
87
89
50
50
41
36
36
36
42
459
556
630
553
716
819
631
752
742
b. VAT/LGST
409
525
576
424
572
474
411
494
476
c. Excises
118
127
146
145
146
148
143
157
d. Others
73
84
88
70
71
61
62
60
399
410
269
256
274
245
262
250
260
1,777
2,040
1,984
1,806
2,096
2,083
1,860
2,080
2,133
-227
-246
-223
-298
-274
-297
-308
-330
-397
-2.2
-2.1
-1.9
-2.6
-2.2
-2.4
-2.5
-2.41
-2.92
i. Oil and gas ii. Non-oil & gas
II. Non-tax revenues B. Expenditures C. Overall balance as percent of GDP
Sources: Ministry of Finance and World Bank.
Pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak • Pertumbuhan 2015 semu karena praktek “ijon” dan penundaan pembayaran restitusi. Tak ada lagi akrobat pajak pada 2016. • Pertumbuhan 2016 tanpa penerimaan tebusan -4,8% . • Pertumbuhan 2017 dibandingkan realisasi 2016 * Realisasi sementara ** APBN 2017 dibandingkan dengan realisasi 2016. tanpa tebusan adalah 26,9%. • Dengan skenario pertumbuhan 15% pada 2017, penerimaan pajak 2017 Rp 1.358, lebih rendah sebesar Rp 141 triliun dibandingkan dengan APBN 2017. • Hingga Mei 2017, penerimaan pajak Rp 463,5T atau 30,9% dari target Rp 1.499T. Diekstrapolasi ke tahunan, penerimaan pajak 2017 adalah Rp 1.112T. “Shortfall” = Rp 387T. Ini sudah termasuk uang tebusan dan puncak penerimaan pajak Maret.
Tahun 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017**
persen 12.2 9.9 6.5 8.1 3.5 16.7
Berbagai pemberitaan belakangan ini Pemerintah Belum Bayar Dana Subsidi Elpiji ke Pertamina Rp 16 Triliun “Total tagihan Pertamina ke Pemerintah Rp 35 triliun.“ http://katadata.co.id/berita/2017/06/09/subsi di-elpiji-jadi-utang-terbesar-pemerintah-kepertamina
Penerimaan pajak hingga Mei baru 31% dari target http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/penerimaanpajak-hingga-mei-baru-31-dari-target
Ditjen Pajak: Batas Gaji Bebas Pajak Belum Bakal Turun http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/3029289/ditjen-pajakbatas-gaji-bebas-pajak-belum-bakal-turun
Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Ubah Batas Dana Wajib Lapor Pajak Jadi Rp 1 Miliar
Gaji ke-13 Telat, Konsumsi Masyarakat Lesu? http://ekonomi.kompas.com/read/2017/07/21/194500126/gaj i-ke-13-telat-konsumsi-masyarakat-lesu-
Tax ratio decreased in the last 5 years Rp trillion
% of GDP
1,500
12.0
11.4 11.2
11.5
11.3 10.9
1,000
11.0
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.5
10.1 500
10.0
9.5 9.5
0
723
874
981
1,077
1,147
1,240
1,284
1,181
1,358
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2016**
2017***
Tax revenue (LHS)
9.0
Tax ratio, (RHS)
* Preliminary actual. ** Without penalties from tax amnesty. *** own projection. Sources: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance; GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia based on 2010 Serie and current prices.
ral to
n
esty T
all
ed, ax
,
Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared Figure 37: Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low to peers to peers compared (percent of GDP) percent of GDP
40
2011
2012
2013
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 21.
Source: IMF; World Bank calculations
2014
4,500
30
2017 Interest payments = Rp 221,405.1 New debts (net) = Rp 389,009.3
4,000
3,856 3,467
3,500
3,165
3,000
2,609 2,376
2,500 2,000
1,809
29
28.8 28
27.9
27.4
27
1,978 26
1,500 25
24.9
1,000 500
24.4
24.7 24
24.0
0
23 2011
2012
2013
2014
Total Government debt
2015
2016
Debt to GDP ratio
* 2016 plus additional Government plan for net new debts; and own projection for nominal GDP. Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and Ministry of Finance.
2017*
% of GDP
IDR trillion
Government debt increased sharply in the last two years
Indonesia’s sovereign rating by 5 agencies
Rating Agency
Latest Rating Awarded Date Outlook Note
Moody's
Baa3
Feb. 8, 2017
Positive*
IG
Fitch
BBB-
Dec. 21, 2016
Positive*
IG
Rating and Investment
BBB-
Apr. 5, 2017
Positive*
IG
Japan Credit Rating Agency
BBB-
Mar. 7, 2017
Positive*
IG
Standard & Poor's
BBB-*
May 19, 2017
Stable
IG
IG = Investment Grade * Revised from stable ** Raised by one notch from BB+ Source: Bank Indonesia.
S&P rating and sovereign bond yields Government bond yields had significantly decreased over the past year in Indonesia and Vietnam even though both countries had not yet obtained investment grade status S&P
BB+ BBBBB AAA-
BBB+
http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/164681492024146238/EAP-Economic-Update-April-2017.pdf?cid=EXTEAPMonth1
Government bond real yield and credit rating Interest payments as % of total expenditures 2015: 8.6% (US: 6.0%) 2016: 9.8% 2017: 10.9% bigger than capex (10.3%)
http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2017/02/11/Indonesia-Selected-Issues-44654
Perencanaan untuk membuat perekonomian sehat •
Perencanaan untuk mampu mengidentifikasi perluasan basis pajak.
•
Peningkatan pajak dihasilkan dari proses untuk membuat perekonomian sehat.
•
Ibarat kita hendak memetik buah yang bermutu: tanamlah dengan bibit unggul, sirami dan pupuk secara teratur.
•
Pajak juga begitu. Merupakan hasil dari membangun perekonomian yang berkualitas.
•
Jadi pajak tidak mencekik.
Investasi
Low quality of investment Structure of gross fixed capital formation, percent Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-15 Construction
73.1
72.9
73.5
74.6
75.4
73.9
Machinery & equipment
11.4
11.7
11.2
10.2
9.6
10.8
Vehicles
6.0
6.3
5.7
4.6
4.4
5.4
Other equipments
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
Cultivated biological resources
5.9
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.1
5.9
Intellectual property products
2.1
2.1
2.4
3.2
3.0
2.6
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sep 2016: sagging loan growth, the lowest level since 2009; deposit growth dropped to lowest level since 2004 (y-o-y, % for LHS; % for RHS) 25
94 92
20 90 88
15
86 10.0 10
84 9.2 82
5 80
0
78
LDR-RHS
Credits
Sources: Bank Indonesia and Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Third party funds-LHS
Time deposit growth started creeping up since October 2016 30
Growth, year-on-year, percent
25
20
15
11.5 10.9
10
6.9 5
0
-5
Time deposit (46%)
Demand deposit (23%)
Sources: Bank Indonesia and Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Saving Account (31%)
Factors that lead to credit growth will still be relatively weak • •
Credit growth has always been below 1 digit for the last 14 months “We haven’t seen the bottom for NPLs (3.1 % in January 2017) because commodity prices are still volatile and we see uncertainties that can affect our domestic economy.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-0409/indonesia-bad-loan-problem-to-worsen-bank-bailout-chief-says
•
“Weak loans" -- which comprises NPLs, special-mention loans and restructured loans, is around 11% of total credit in Indonesia -- is among the highest in Asia. http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Indonesian-banks-tackle-bad-loans-amid-lingering-doubts
Bagian VI Need More Capital Inflow
US$ billions
FDI inflows (net) reached the highest in 2016 Foreign direct investment (net)
20
16.0 14.7
15
13.7 11.1
12.2
11.5
10.7
10
5
3.4
2.6
2.9
2.5
2016*
2017*
0
2008 * First quarter. Source: Bank Indonesia.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Far more portfolio investment than FDI since 2014
* First quarter. Source: Bank Indonesia.
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