Antisipasi Krisis Keuangan Global 2011 - 2012 Mirza Adityaswara (Ekonom) 30 September 2011 Business Forum di Kementerian Perindustrian
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Penyebab Krisis • Resesi 2009 + Rekapitalisasi Bank 2009 = Sovereign Crisis 2011 • Krisis Keuangan 2008/09 berawal dari ‘sub-prime mortgage’ di AS • Krisis Keuangan 2008 mulai dirasakan kwartal III/2007 di AS, kemudian menjalar ke pasar Global pada akhir 2008 • Krisis 2011 berawal dari ‘Sovereign”, mulai di Eropa pada awal 2010, • Problem Sovereign : utang tinggi, defisit fiskal tinggi di Eropa & AS • Belum ada solusi yang ampuh, berisiko menjadi krisis Global 2012
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Formula Solusi Krisis 2008/09 • Krisis AS 2008 menjadi krisis likuiditas global pada waktu Lehman Brothers dibiarkan bangkrut Sep 2008 • Pengambilalihan lembaga keuangan sistemik (bank, asuransi, pembiayaan) • Menaikkan ‘Deposit Guarantee’ • Injeksi likuiditas & SWAP lines oleh bank sentral global • Penurunan suku bunga global (termasuk penurunan GWM) • Larangan melakukan ‘transaksi short’ di pasar saham, dsb • Ekspansi fiskal dan kredit terutama oleh China • TARP $ 700bn, Rekapitalisasi Perbankan AS & Eropa – Citigroup, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mack, UBS, RBS, Lloyd Bank, dll 3
Solusi Krisis 2008/09 di Indonesia • Ekspor turun, sehingga fokus pertumbuhan kepada Domestik • Moneter & Perbankan : – – – – –
Penurunan GWM Penurunan BI rate, akses likuiditas repo SUN Menaikkan ‘deposit gurantee LPS” menjadi Rp 2bn Menyelamatkan ‘bank Century’ karena situasi sistemik Perbankan cukup modal (CAR tinggi) dan cukup likuiditas (LDR rendah)
• Pasar modal : restriksi ‘short’, suspension, buy back saham dan intervensi SUN • Fiskal : ekspansi anggaran (defisit dinaikkan dari 1.8% ke 2.3% PDB)
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Bagaimana Formula 2011/2012 ? • Jangan biarkan ‘bank sistemik’ jatuh di Eropa • Injeksi likuiditas Dollar, Euro oleh bank sentral
• Pertahankan suku bunga rendah di Eropa, AS • Problem : EM BRIC overheating, sulit ekspansi fiskal dan moneter • Perluas mandat dan nilai EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) secara signifikan (dari Euro 440bn menjadi Euro 1 tn sd 2 tn ?) • China, US, dan G20 dan IMF harus membantu ‘bail out Eropa” • Solusi jangka panjang : Fiscal Union in Europe ? • Problem : Euro zones terdiri 17 negara (fiskal, rating, dan budaya berbeda) 5
Worst Case Scenario ? • Peningkatan EFSF tidak disetujui oleh 17 parlemen Eropa ? • Yunani default ? • Spanyol dan/atau Italy restrukturisasi utang ? • Sistemic financial institution collapse ? • Jerman kembali ke DEM ?
• *Perkembangan positif, perluasan EFSF kemungkinan disetujui minggu depan 6
Solusi Antisipasi Krisis 2012 di Indonesia ?
• Moneter :
– likuiditas Rp & valas harus cukup – Penurunan harga komoditas, inflasi terkendali +/- 5%
• Perbankan : – – – –
LDR Perbankan masih sehat, dibawah 100 pct CAR perbankan sehat, diatas 12 pct Kredit berjalan normal tapi tetap ‘prudent’ Pantau situasi ‘global sistemic risk’
• Fiskal : percepat pelaksanaan proyek, pencairan anggaran • BOP : Antisipasi penurunan Capital Inflows, kurangi impor yang tidak perlu • BOP : Diversifikasi ekspor, tourism, PMA
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Panic Level (VIX Index)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
8
CDS of GIPSI September 9, 2011
Greece = 3,400
Portugal = 1,136 Ireland = 871 Spain = 413 Italia = 467
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
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CDS INDONESIA 5 Years 1300,000 1200,000 1100,000 1000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000
306,435 (Sept 26 ’11)
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,000 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 26, 2011 10
Harga Saham Societte Generale 200 180 160 140 120 100
80
27,8718
60
(Sept ‘11)
40 20 0 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2011 11
Kurs IDR terhadap USD 13000
12,700
12500 12000 11500 11000 10500 10000 9500
8,923
9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500
6000 Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011 12
USD terhadap mata uang lain
Currency IDR (Indonesia)
Rate Jun 11
Sept 11
%
8579
8970
4,6
SGD (Singapore)
1,2284
1,2948
5,4
BAHT (Thailand)
30,7
31,19
1,6
6,672
7,8875
18,2
REAL (Brazil)
1,5633
1,861
19,0
LIRA (Turkey)
1,623
1,861
14,7
WON (Korea)
1067,65
1176,78
10,2
RAND (South Africa)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011 13
Jakarta Composite Index
3507,424 (Sept 28 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
14
Index Indonesia Govt Bond Yield 10 yr
7,087 (Sept 29 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
15
Yield SUN Indon 6 7/8 18
4,452 (Sept 29 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
16
SIBOR Tenor 1 Bulan
0,26789 (Jul ‘11)
17
EMBI Spread
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011
18
US10 Year T-Bonds Yield
1,9745 (Sept 28 ’11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011
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Global economists cut USD GDP growth • Neill Soss (US Credit Suisse chief economist) • GDP 3Q11 has been cut from 3.3% to 1.5% • GDP 4Q11 has been cut from 3.1% to 2.2% • Morgan Stanley cut Global growth forecast from 4.2% to 3.9% in 2011 • The FED will maintain very low interest rate until 2013
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IMF Economic Forecast Global growth is expected to weaken in 2011. World growth 4% in 2011 and 2012. Year over Year Projections Area
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
World
3,0
-0,5
5,1
4,0
4,0
Euro Area
0,6
-4,1
1,8
1,6
1,1
United Kingdom
0,5
-4,9
1,3
1,1
1,6
United States
0,4
-2,6
2,9
1,5
1,8
Japan
-1,2
-6,3
4,0
-0,5
2,3
China
9,6
9,2
10,3
9,5
9,0
India
7,3
6,8
10,4
7,8
7,5
ASEAN-5
4,7
1,7
6,9
5,3
5,6
Source: IMF, September 2011 21
Indonesia GDP 2Q11: 6,5% (YoY) More confidence to the economy, strong growth supported by recovery in private investment and international trade. 7,0 6,5 6,3
6,0 5,5
5,6
5,0
6,5 6,1
6,1
5,5
5,1
4,5 4,5 4,0
4,1
3,5 3,0
3,7 3,3
2,5 2,0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Q2 2011
Source: BPS, September 2011 22
Indonesia August Inflation 2011: 4,79% (YoY)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 23, 2011
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European Union is 13% of Non-Oil Export Indonesia had trade deficit with China NON-OIL EXPORT BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION Country of Destination European Union Japan China US Singapore
FY 2010 17.070 16.501 14.073 13.327 9.560
YoY FY 2010 (%) 26 38 58 27 20
Jan-Jul 2011 12.332 10.442 10.923 9.265 6.609
YoY (%)
Share (%)
35 16 57 23 24
13 11 12 10 7
NON-OIL IMPORT OF COUNTRY OF ORIGIN Country of Origin
FY 2010
China Japan Singapore European Union US
19.687 16.908 10.054 9.767 9.291
YoY FY 2010 (%) 46 72 9 13 32
Jan-Jul 2011 14.311 10.450 6.118 6.836 5.905
YoY (%)
Share (%)
30 12 6 28 11
19 14 8 9 8
Source: BPS 24
Government Debt to GDP Indonesia is one of the lowest
Source : Citigroup report 25
Indonesia is less dependent on exports
Source : Citigroup report 26
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LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio) 79,8% in July 2011
LDR SOE Bank Forex Private Bank Non-forex Private Bank Regional Bank Joint Venture Bank Foreign Bank Commercial Bank
Dec 2008 70,3 74,7 81,7 67,3 98,6 88,3 74,6
Dec 2009 69,6 71,1 81,2 79,3 85,5 85,1 73,7
Dec 2010 71,5 73,2 79,1 78,3 100,6 90,8 75,2
Juni 2011 81,8 76,5 85,1 68,2 102,8 89,6 79,7
Juli 2011 81,8 75,6 83,5 69,6 105,5 95,0 79,8
Source : Bank Indonesia
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Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) 17,2% in July 2011 CAR SOE Bank Forex Private Bank Non-forex Private Bank Regional Bank Joint Venture Bank Foreign Bank Commercial Bank
Dec 2008 14,3 14,8 24,4 16,8 24,9 29,1 16,8
Dec Dec June July 2009 2010 * 2011 * 2011 * 13,8 15,4 16,4 17,2 16,6 15,7 15,6 15,6 19 18,9 16,6 19,6 15,8 16,7 14,2 14,5 27 23,4 22,0 21,8 32,1 27,1 25,3 24,3 17,4 17,2 17,0 17,2
*) included operational bank Source: Bank Indonesia 29
Deposits Grew 18,3% YoY and Credit Grew 23,5% YoY in July 2011
Date Deposit (IDR Bn) %YoY %MoM 2006 1.287.102 14,1 2007 1.510.834 17,4 2008 1.753.292 16,0 2009 1.973.042 12,5 Dec-10 2.338.824 18,5 5,7 Jul-11 2.464.083 18,3 1,1
Date 2006 2007 2008 2009 Dec-10 Jul-11
Credit (IDR Bn) %YoY %MoM 792.297 13,9 1.002.012 26,5 1.307.688 30,5 1.437.930 10 1.765.845 22,8 3,5 1.973.599 23,5 1,2
Source: Bank Indonesia
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Foreign Exchange Loans as % of Total Loans 15,7% (in Jul 11)
Source: Bank Indonesia 31
Credit Spread rose during recession
JP Morgan, 12 August
32
NPL 2,7% in July 2011
Source: Bank Indonesia 33
Import by Category: Mostly Raw Material Category
Jan-Dec 2010
FY 2010 Jul 11 YoY (%)
MoM (%)
Jan-Jul 2011
(mn USD)
YoY (%)
Share (%)
Consumption Goods
9.993
48
1.211
12,25
7.554
35
8
Raw Material
98.698
42
12.039
6,93
74.913
36
75
Capital Goods
26.916
32
2.813
2,87
17.177
15
17
Total Import
135.606
40
16.063
6,57
99.644
32
100
Source: BPS
Ekspor Non-Migas
35
Impor Non-Migas
36
Indonesia and Global Economic Update September , 2011
37
Purchasing Manager Index US
US 50,6 (Aug ‘11) vs 50,9 (Jul ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
38
Conference Board US Leading Index Building Permits
620 (August ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011
39
Purchasing Manager Index Euro Zone
Euro Zone 49,0 (Aug ‘11) vs 50,4 (Jul ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
40
Purchasing Manager Index China
China 50,9 ( Aug ‘11) vs 50,7 (Jul ’11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
41
China Loan Growth (YoY)
16,6 (Jul ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 9, 2011
42
Indeks Dow Jones 15000 14000 13000 12000
11000 10000 11190,69 (Sept 27, 11)
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2011 43
Italia’s Bond Yield
5,644 (Sept 28 ’11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
44
Portugal’s Bond Yield
11,584 (Sept 28 ’11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
45
Spain’s Bond Yield
5,081 (Sept 28 ’11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
46
Ireland’s Bond Yield
7,927 (Sept 29 ’11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
47
Harga Saham BNP Paribas 130 120 110 100 90 80 70
60 50 40 30 20
40,85598 (Sept ’11)
10 0 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2011 48
Harga Saham Credit Agricole 45
40
35
30
25
20
7,05361 (Sept ‘11)
15
10
5
0 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2011 49
Harga Saham Deutsche Bank 160
140
120
100
80
37,39912 (Sept ‘11)
60
40
20
0 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011 50
Harga Saham Commerze Bank 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
2,63549 (Sept ‘11)
5
0 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011 51
Harga Saham Citigroup 600 550 500 450
400 350
300 250
200 150
26.3 (Sept ‘11)
100 50
0 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2011 52
COAL
USD122,5/Short ton (Sept 23 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 23, 2011
53
OIL
USD81,30/Barrel (Sept 29 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 29, 2011
54
NICKEL
USD18.610 (Sept 28 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 28, 2011
55
Malaysia Palm Oil Board CPO fob Spot Price
2940 (Sept 27 ‘11)
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2011
56
Indonesia’s Banking Sector
57
Investment Credit Grew 21,9% (YoY) and Working Capital Loan Grew 25,3% (YoY)
Date 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Dec-10 Jul-11
Investment Credit Working Capital (IDR bn) %YoY %MoM Credit (IDR bn) %YoY %MoM 134.400 13,2% 354.557 22,4% 151.209 12,5% 414.749 17,0% 186.218 23,2% 533.240 28,6% 255.900 37,4% 0,0% 684.672 28,4% -2,9% 297.939 16,4% 3,8% 703.002 2,8% 2,8% 348.518 17,0% 5,6% 880.208 25,2% 3,2% 413.450 21,9% 1,6% 950.041 25,3% 1,0%
Source : Bank Indonesia
58
Percentage of Undisbursed Loans Still Above 30.0%
Date Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec-10 Jul-11
Undisbursed Loan (IDR bn) 162,988 208,338 247,673 323,716 554,709 623,272
% Total Loan 20.6% 20.8% 18.9% 22.5% 31.4% 31.6%
Source: Bank Indonesia
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