Weekly. Dow Jones Index

Weekly 03— 03—07 Februari 2014

BIRD

BURSA EFEK INDONESIA Closing (24/01/2014)

4.437,34

Closing (30/01/2014)

4.418,76

Perubahan

-18,58 (-0,42%)

Kapitalisasi Pasar (Rp tn) (30/01)

4.382

USD/IDR (24/01/2014—30/01/2014)

12.177—12.226

Support-Resistance (03—07/02)

4256—4417

Kekhawatiran mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi China, lanjutan pemotongan paket stimulus yang diperkirakan akan seelsai total sekitar September/Oktober 2014, turunnya Consumer Confidence bulan January serta bagaimana kelanjutan kejatuhan mata uang Negara berkembang besar menjadi faktor selama minggu lalu IHSG turun –18,58 poin (-0,42%) .

BURSA GLOBAL Index DJIA

24/01

30/01

+/-

%

15.879,11

15.698,85

-180,26

-1,14

4.128,17

4.103,88

-24,29

-0,59

NIKKEI

15.391,56

15.007,06

-384,5

-2,50

HSEI

22.450,06

22.035,42

-414,64

-1,85

3.075,99

3.027,22

-48,77

-1,59

NASDAQ

STI

Dow Jones Index

Hang Seng Index

Kekhawatiran atas mata uang dan kesehatan ekonomi beberapa emerging market besar, termasuk potensi perlambatan ekonomi China serta tapering setiap bulannya dan lebih rendahnya released revenue plus earnings beserta guidance kedepannya seperti: Amazon.Com sahamya turun -11% dan Chevron -4,1%, menjadi pemicu di hari Jumat DJIA TURUN TAJAM -149,76 poin (-0,94%) disertai volume perdagangan di atas rata-rata yakni 7,8 miliar lembar, sehingga dengan kejatuhan Jumat selama 1 minggu DJIA turun -1,1% dan selama January DJIA turun -5,3% disertai kenaikan The Vix +34,2% (kejatuhan bulanan DJIA terburuk sejak May 2012).

HARGA KOMODITAS Komoditas

24/01

30/01

+/-

%

Nymex US/barrel

96,9

97,49

0,59

0,61

Batubara US/ton

80,70

80,40

-0,3

-0,37

Emas US/oz

1.268,8

1.239,8

-29

-2,29

Nikel US/ton

14.490

13.980

-510

-3,52

Timah US/ton

21.880

22.025

+145

+0,66

2.591

2.559

-32

-1,24

CPO RM/ton

Oil

Gold

Akibat mengecewakannya data PM China dan kejatuhan tajam mata uang dibeberapa Negara emerging market sehingga terjadi tekanan jual terhadap beberapa komoditas diantaranya: emas $1.239,8/ton (-2,29%) dan Timah turun –0,45%.

1 www.mncsecurities.com

BIRD Weekly “WHILE WAITING FOR EMPLOYMENT REPORT, MORE JITTERS AHEAD”

Wall Street dalam pekan ini Kekhawatiran atas mata uang dan kesehatan ekonomi beberapa emerging market besar, termasuk potensi perlambatan ekonomi China serta tapering setiap bulannya dan lebih rendahnya released revenue plus earnings beserta guidance kedepannya seperti: Amazon.Com sahamya turun -11% dan Chevron -4,1%, menjadi pemicu di hari Jumat DJIA TURUN TAJAM -149,76 poin (-0,94%) disertai volume perdagangan di atas ratarata yakni 7,8 miliar lembar, sehingga dengan kejatuhan Jumat selama 1 minggu DJIA turun -1,1% dan selama January DJIA turun -5,3% disertai kenaikan The Vix +34,2% (kejatuhan bulanan DJIA terburuk sejak May 2012). Gonjang ganjing nampaknya berlanjut minggu ini seiring investor menantikan laporan tenaga kerja di hari Jumat dan memperhatikan apakah terjadi kelanjutan aksi jual atas mata uang emerging market. Disamping itu emiten besar yang akan merelease LK FY 2013: Sysco, UBS, Michael Kors, BP, Disney, Merck, Twitter, GlaxoSmithKline, Time Warner, General Motors, Philip Morris, Credit Suisse, Kellogg, sedangkan data ekonomi penting yang perlu diperhatikan: Manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, Factory orders, ADP employment, Services PMI dan Employment report. Upcoming US Economic Data yang diumumkan Senin (03/02) - Jumat (07/02) Feb 03 Earnings: Crown Holdings, Anadarko, Sysco, Torchmark, Hartford Financial, Carefusion, Take-Two Interactive Auto sales Manufacturing PMI ISM manufacturing Construction spending Feb 04 Earnings: Toyota, UBS, Arm Holdings, Clorox, Delphi Automotive, McGraw-Hill Financial, Boston Scientific, BP, CME Group, Eaton, Genworth Financial, Aflac, Buffalo Wild Wings Factory orders Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on monetary challenges Feb 05 Earnings: Disney, Merck, Twitter, Estee Lauder, Ralph Lauren, Nasdaq OMX, Lazard, Shutterfly, Pandora, Solera ADP employment Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing survey Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on economic outlook Feb 06 European Central Bank rate decision Earnings: General Motors, Philip Morris, Sanofi, Credit Suisse, Alliance Data, Kellogg, Sony, Flowers Foods, New York Times, LinkedIn, Netgear, OpenTable, True Blue, Lionsgate, Expedia Initial claims International trade Feb 07 Earnings: Apollo Management, ArcelorMittal, Buckeye Partners, Cigna, Moody's, Statoil, Wyndham Worldwide Employment report Consumer credit www.mncsecurities.com

2

BIRD Weekly Top Picks (1) PT WIJAYA KARYA Tbk (WIKA) Last Price Target Price

Rp 1.975 Rp 2.400 (Target Price end of year 2014)

Reason Proyeksi Kinerja Full Year 2013: Net Revenue naik +7% menjadi Rp 10,55 triliun; Operating Profit naik +23% menjadi Rp 1,04 triliun; Profit before tax naik +16% menjadi Rp 936,34 triliun; Net Profit naik +13% menjadi Rp 520,04 miliar; Cash & Cash Equivalent naik +23% menjadi Rp 8,8 triliun; Debt Equity Ratio menjadi 2,88x Gross Profit Margin menjadi 10,67% Operating Profit Margin menjadi 9,82% Net Profit Margin menjadi 4,93% ROE menjadi 14,59% ROA menjadi 3,76% Proyeksi Kinerja Full Year 2014: Net Revenue menjadi Rp 11,97 triliun; Operating Profit Rp 1,26 triliun; Profit before tax Rp 1,20 triliun; Net Profit Rp 674,76 miliar; BV Rp 754,76 EPS Rp 115,42 PER 20,79x PBV 3,18x

3 www.mncsecurities.com

BIRD Weekly Top Picks (2) PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk (SMAR) Last Price Target Price

Rp 6.850 Rp 8.200 (Target Price End of Year 2014)

Reasons:

•

Merupakan Grup Perusahaan yang mempunyai total lahan terbesar di Indonesia, yaitu sebesar 320.463 ha dengan luas lahan tertanam sebesar 138.612 ha, yang terdiri dari 134.102 hektar matang dan 4.510 hektar perkebunan belum menghasilkan. Inti dan plasma perkebunan masing – masing sebesar 107.973 dan 30.639 hektar (per Juni 2013).

•

Rasio utang terhadap modal atau debt to equity ratio (DER) Perseroan sebesar 1,57 kali. Sedangkan DER industry adalah sebesar 1,32 kali.

•

Tingkat pengembalian modal atau return on equity (ROE) Perseroan mencapai 17,91%. Rata-rata ROE industri kelapa sawit mencapai 3,22%. Sedangkan Return On Asset (ROA) Perseroan hanya 6,95% (ROA industri sebesar 2,60%).

•

Rasio harga terhadap laba bersih atau price to earning ratio (PER) Perseroan sebesar 17,33 kali. Angka ini lebih tinggi dari PER industri yang sebesar 25,74 kali.

Kinerja Triwulan III/ 2013:

•

Pendapatan Perseroan di triwulan III/ 2013 turun 20,41% menjadi Rp16,73 triliun dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp21,02 triliun.

•

Laba usaha di triwulan III/ 2013 turun 42,15% menjadi Rp1,40 triliun dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp2,42 triliun.

•

Laba bersih Perseroan di triwulan III/ 2013 turun 45,62% menjadi Rp864,63 miliar dibandingkan yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp1,59 triliun.

P/BV 2014F PE 2014F EPS 2014F

periode

2,2x 21,13x Rp 388,07

4 www.mncsecurities.com

BIRD Weekly

Edwin J. Sebayang [email protected] Mining, Energy, Company Groups

Reza Nugraha [email protected] Cement, Transportation, Infrastructure, Property

Dian Agustina [email protected] Plantation, Pharmacy

Zabrina Raissa [email protected] Banking

Head of Research Ext.260

Research Ext.261

Research Ext.262

Research Ext.264

MNC Securities MNC Tower Lt.4 Jl. Kebon Sirih No.17-19 Jakarta 10340 Phone 021-3922000 Fax 021-39836857

Disclaimer This research report has been issued by PT MNC Securities It may not be reproduced or further distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. PT MNC Securities has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; PT MNC Securities makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility to liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expression of opinion herein are those of the research department only and are subject to change without notice. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any investment. PT MNC Securities and its affiliates and/or their offices, directors and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. PT MNC Securities and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting position in the securities of companies discusses herein (or investment related thereto) and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies

5 www.mncsecurities.com

BIRD Weekly MNC Tower - Jakarta Jl. Kebon Sirih No 17-19 Jakarta 10340 Telp. 021- 3928333 Fax. 021-3919930 HP. 0888 800 9138 Yelly Syofita [email protected]

MANGGA DUA - Jakarta Arkade Belanja Mangga Dua Ruko No. 2 Jl Arteri Mangga Dua Raya Jakarta 10620 Telp. 021-6127668 Fax. 021-6127701 HP. 0812 910 0807 Yenny Mintarjo [email protected] [email protected]

SURYO - Jakarta Jl. Suryo No. 20 Senopati Jakarta Selatan Telp. ( 021 ) 72799989 Fax. (021 ) 72799977 Suta Vanda Syafril [email protected]

INDOVISION - Jakarta Wisma Indovision Lantai Dasar Jl Raya Panjang Z / III Jakarta 11520 Telp. 021-5813378 / 79 Fax. 021-5813380 HP. 0815 1650 107 Denny Kurniawan [email protected] [email protected]

GAJAH MADA - Jakarta Mediterania Gajah Mada Residence Unit Ruko TUD 12 Jl. Gajah Mada 174 Telp. ( 021 ) 63875567 '( 021 ) 63875568 Anggraeni [email protected]

TAMAN PERMATA BUANA - Jakarta Ruko Taman Permata Buana Jalan Pulau Bira D1 No. 26 Jakarta 11610 Telp. 021-5803735 Fax . 021-58358063 Kie Henny Roosiana [email protected] [email protected]

KEMAYORAN - Jakarta Jl. Landasan Pacu Utara Selatan Blok A1, Kav 2 Apartemen Mediterania Palace, Ruko C/OR/M Kemayoran, Jakarta 10630 Telp. (021) 30044599 Ponirin Johan [email protected]

KELAPA GADING - Jakarta Komplek Bukit Gading Mediterania Jl. Boulevard BGR Blok A/12 Kelapa Gading Barat Jakarta Utara 14240 Telp. 021-45842111 Fax . 021-45842110 Andri Muharizal Putra [email protected] [email protected]

GANDARIA - Jakarta Jl. Iskandar Muda No. 9 A Arteri Pondok Indah (depan Gandaria City) Jakarta 12240 Telp. (021) 7294243, 7294230 Fax. (021) 7294245 A. Dwi Supriyanto [email protected]

OTISTA - Jakarta Jl. Otista Raya No.31A Jakarta Timur Telp. (021) 29360105 FAX. (021) 29360106 Fauziah/Nadia Otista [email protected]

SURABAYA GEDUNG ICBC CENTER JL. BASUKI RAHMAT 16-18 SURABAYA TELP. 031-5317929 HP. 0888 303 7338 ANDRIANTO WIJAYA [email protected] [email protected]

Sby-Sulawesi Jl. Sulawesi No. 60 Surabaya 60281 Telp. 031-5041690 Fax. 031-5041694 HP. 0812 325 2868 Lius Andy H. [email protected] [email protected]

MEDAN Jl. Karantina No 46 Kel. Durian, Kec Medan Timur Medan 20235 Telp. 061-6641905

MALANG Jl. Pahlawan TRIP No. 9 Malang 65112 Telp. 0341-567555 Fax. 0341-586086 HP. 0888 330 0000 Lanny Tjahjadi [email protected] [email protected]

SOLO Jl. Dr. Rajiman 64 / 226 Solo Telp. (0271) 642722, 631662, 633707 Fax. (0271) 637726 Tindawati LY. Lennywati [email protected]

Bandung Jl. Gatot Subroto No. 2 Bandung - 40262 Telp No. 022- 733 1916-17 Fax No. 022- 733 1915 Bismar / Dimas Panji [email protected] [email protected]

MAGELANG Jl. Cempaka No. 8 B Komp. Kyai Langgeng Kel. Jurang Ombo, Magelang 56123 Telp. 0293-313338 0293-313468 Fax. 0293-313438 HP. 0888 282 6180 Deddy Irianto [email protected]

SEMARANG Rukan Mutiara Marina No. 36 Lt. 2 Kav. 35 - 36 Semarang Telp. 024-76631623 Fax. 024-76631627 Widyastuti [email protected]

DENPASAR Gedung Bhakti Group ( Koran Seputar Indonesia ) Jl. Diponegoro No. 109 Denpasar - 80114 Telp. 0361-264569 Fax. 0361-264563

MAKASSAR Jl. Lanto Dg Pasewang No. 28 C Makassar - Sulawesi Selatan Kompleks Rukan Ratulangi Blok. C12-C13 Jl. DR. Sam Ratulangi No. 7 Makassar - 90113 Telp. 0411-858516 Fax. 0411-858526 Fax. 0411 - 850913 Daniel R. Marsan email: [email protected]

BATAM Hotel Nagoya Plaza Jl. Imam Bonjol No. 3-4 Lubuk Baja, Batam 29432 Telp. 0778-459997 Fax. 0778-456787 HP. 0812 701 7917 Manan [email protected] [email protected]

Sentul - Bogor Jl. Ir. H. Djuanda No. 78 Sentul City, Bogor – 16810 Telp. 6221- 87962291 – 93 Fax. 6221- 87962294 Hari Retnowati [email protected]

TEGAL Ahmad Yani No 237 Tegal Telp. 0283 - 335 7768 Fax. 0283 - 340 520 Tubagus Anditra/ Aprilia [email protected]

PATI Jalan HOS Cokroaminoto Gang 2 No. 1 Pati – Jawa Tengah Telp (0295) 382722 Faks (0295) 385093 Arie Santoso [email protected]

Semarang_Pojok BEI Univ Dian Nuswantoro Telp . (024) 356 7010 Gustav Iskandar

Semarang_Pojok BEI Universitas Stikubank Telp . (024) 841 4970 Gustav Iskandar

Balikpapan Jl. Jend Sudirman No.33 Balikpapan – Kaltim Tel. (0542) 736259 [email protected]

Bandar Lampung Jl. Brigjen Katamso No. 12 Tanjung Karang, Bandar Lampung 35111 Tel. (0721) 251238 DEALING Tel. (0721) 264569 CSO [email protected]

Menado Jl. Pierre Tendean Komp Mega Mas Blok 1 D No.19 Tel. (0431) 877888 Fax. (0431) 876222 [email protected]

Jambi Jl. GR. Djamin Datuk Bagindo No.7 Jambi Telp : 0741-7554595/7075309 Jasman

Jl.

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