Update on Indonesia Climate Change Policy Development Dr. Medrilzam Director for Environment Affairs Ministry of National Development Planning/ National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS)
Presented at the Workshop of Joint Crediting Mechanism Accelerating Private Sector Participation towards Low Carbon Development in Indonesia Jakarta, 30 November 2016
Principles for Climate Change Policy in Indonesia:
Addressing Economy-Poverty-Emission Nexus and mainstreaming the Nexus into Development Plan
Article 3.4 of UNFCCC ‘policies and measures to protect the climate system against human-induced … should be integrated with national development program…’
Article 4.7 of UNFCCC ‘The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.’
Article 2 Paris Agreement This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.
Logical Framework of Climate Change Policy Exercise in Indonesia: POVERTY
ECONOMY TRADE OFFS
Waste
Development Policies ?
Population
CO2 Industry
Land Use
Economy
Transportation
Emission
Energy
Focus for NDC Partnership: develop and implement sustainable development policies aiming toward strengthening economy, reducing poverty and GHG emission
Mainstreaming (i)NDC into Development Policy Agenda •
National Mid Term Development Plan
• •
(I)NDC
Annual Work Plan
• • • •
Budget
Indonesia Ratify Paris Agreement (Law No.16/2016) No. 103 among UNFCCC parties Plan to prepare investment strategy for 2020-2030. Prepare database for (i)NDC Improving (i)NDC regularly Prepare the Presidential Regulation for Low Emission Development Strategy and SDGs Input for Indonesia Vision 2045 Aligment between Climate and Development Agendas with long term emissions mitigation and adaptation impact
Emission Baseline Indonesia : 2000-2030 (in ton CO2e) 3000000 2500000
Note: Coal as the main energy source (RUEN, 2015) will shift the emission source from land to energy sector
2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Energi dan transportasi
IPPU
Limbah
AFOLU (no peat)
Peat Dekomposisi
Peat Fire
Total Emisi GRK dalam ribu ton CO2e
3,500,000
Skenario Fair: Reduksi Emisi sebesar 832 Mton CO2e atau setara 29 % dari BAU pada 2030
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000
Skenario Ambisius: Reduksi Emisi sebesar 1,19 Giga ton ton CO2e atau setara 41 % dari BAU pada 2030
1,000,000 500,000 1995
2000
2005
Baseline BAU Total Emisi
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Baseline Total Emisi Skenario Fair
2035
Indonesia Low Emission Development PRE-2020
Economic Development Target +
7%
Emission Reduction Target by
Economic Growth
2020
LED Sector
- 26/41% Reduction of GHG Climate Change Objective Presidential Regulation No. 61/2011 on GHG Emission Reduction Action Plan
Emission Reduction Target (Gton CO2e) by 2020 26 %
41 %
Land Based Sector (Forestry, peatland and agriculture)
0.680
1.050
Energy Based Sector
0.036
0.056
IPPU
0.001
0.005
Waste Management Sector
0.048
0.078
Beban Penurunan Emisi Tiap Sektor di 2030
Baseline
Skenario Fair di 2030
Skenario Ambisius di 2030
Jumlah (Mton CO2e) %
Jumlah (Mton CO2e) %
-
2.881
2.881
-
23.1% 16.4% 0.2% 1.7%
Penurunan Emisi: Hutan, Pertanian dan Gambut Energi IPPU Waste
545 253 3 31
19% 8.8% 0.1% 1.1%
666 472 6 48
Total Penurunan emisi
832
29%
1,192
41%
Berdasarkan 3 skenario kebijakan, hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa upaya penurunan emisi GRK tetap bertumpu pada sektor lahan mengingat pertimbangan kemudahan, biaya yang rendah tanpa memerlukan penguasaan teknologi canggih. Di sisi lainnya, masih terdapat delay dalam hal penguasaan teknologi mitigasi dan EBT di sektor energi sehingga belum dapat mengimbangi kebutuhan penurunan emisi dan energi yang ada.
Emisi per Kapita (dalam ton CO2/cap) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1995
2000
Emisi per Kapita BAU
2005
2010
2015
Emisi Per Kapita Skenario Fair
2020
2025
2030
2035
Emisi Per Kapita Skenario Ambisius
Emisi per PDB (dalam ton CO2/ Miliar Rupiah)
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1995
2000
Emisi per PDB BAU
2005
2010
2015
Emisi per PDB Skenario Fair
2020
2025
2030
2035
Emisi per PDB Skenario Ambisius
Hasil Simulasi (2010-2030) Level of National Poverty
• • •
0.15
• 0.10
•
0.05
0.00 2,000 2,002 2,004 2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014 2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024 2,026 2,028 2,030 *Level of National Poverty
Level of National Poverty
Level of National Poverty Fair m ix Wage
Level of National Poverty Fair m ix ID
Level of National Poverty Baseline
Number of National Poor People person 40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0 2,000 2,002 2,004 2,006 2,008 2,010 2,012 2,014 2,016 2,018 2,020 2,022 2,024 2,026 2,028 2,030 *National poor people
National poor people
Num ber of national poor people baseline
Num ber of national poor Fair m ix Wage
Num ber of national poor Fair m ix ID
Kurva 1 Skenario Baseline Kurva 2 skenario Fair INDC Kurva 3 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Harga Kurva 4 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Upah Kurva 5 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Distribusi Pendapatan
Kurva 3,4,dan 5 ditujukan untuk mengatasi dampak dari kebijakan INDC Fair (kurva 2) pada indikator kemiskinan Tampak bahwa masing-masing skenario memberikan dampak untuk mengatasi proyeksi kemiskinan pada kondisi Fair (Kurva biru), tampak bahwa pada kebijakan upah dampak penurunan kemiskinan lebih signifikan dibandingkan pada skenario kebijakan distribusi pendapatan dan harga.
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Hasil Simulasi (2010-2030) 0.05
• • •
0.04
•
0.03
•
Pertumbuhan PDB
per year 0.06
0.02 0.01 0.00 2,000
2,002
*GROWTH PDB
2,004
2,006
2,008
GROWTH PDB
2,010
2,012 2,014
Growth PDB Baseline
2,016
2,018
2,020
2,022
Growth PDB Fair mix Wage
2,024
2,026 2,028
2,030
2,500,000 *TOTAL EMISSIONS Emission Fair mix Wage TOTAL EMISSIONS
Pada indikator LPE, range pertumbuhan ekonomi pada akhir tahun simulasi berada pada kisaran 5-6% per tahun dari berbagai variasi skenario. Namun yang terbaik adalah skenario Fair INDC + upah, diikuti skenario fair INDC upah dan Skenario baseline
Baseline Emission2 Emission Fair mix ID
1,500,000
2,000
Pada indikator Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Emisi, pada variasi skenario Fair tidak memberikan banyak perbedaan.
Growth PDB Fair mix ID
CO2*Gg/year 3,000,000
2,000,000
Kurva 1 Skenario Baseline Kurva 2 skenario Fair INDC Kurva 3 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Harga Kurva 4 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Upah Kurva 5 Skenario Fair INDC + Kebijakan Distribusi Pendapatan
2,005
2,010
2,015
2,020
2,025
2,030
Sementara untuk hasil emisi, besaran emisi skenario Fair dengan berbagai variasinya tidak memiliki perbedaan yang signifikan. Penurunan berada pada besaran 29%
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Drivers to Achieve Low Emission Development Objectives:
• Innovation and Technology • Human Productivity • Shifting from resource/extraction based industry to service based Industry • Enhancing private sector involvement and foreign direct investment
Thank You
