Some remarks on climate change and our future energy system Wim Turkenburg
[email protected] Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University & Wim Turkenburg Energy and Environmental Consultancy, Amsterdam
Springtij Forum - Terschelling 25 September 2014 Source drawing: NRC-HB, 19 August 2013
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Climate Change
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Monthly average CO2 concentration in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa Observatory, in the period 1958 – August 2014 Note: - In 2010 manmade emission of CO2 was ~37 GtCO2; the emission of all GHG’s together ~49 GtCO2-eq. - In 2010 the concentration of CO2 was ~388 ppm and of all GHG’s together ~444 ppm CO2-eq. - In 2010 the concentration of all GHG’s including cooling aerosols was ~403 ppm CO2-eq. (Source: IPCC, 2013 & EEA, 2013).
400 ppm
Source curve: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.pdf (visited: 24 Sept. 2014)
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Indicatoren van een veranderend klimaat (IPCC, 2013)
(a) gemiddelde sneeuwoppervlak op het noordelijk halfrond in maart-april, (b) gemiddelde zeeijsoppervlak in het Noordpoolgebied in juli-augustus-september, (c) verandering in de mondiaal gemiddelde hoeveelheid warmte in de bovenste laag van de oceaan (0-700m), ten opzichte van het gemiddelde van alle datasets voor 1971, (d) mondiaal gemiddelde zeespiegel, afwijking ten opzichte van het 1900-1905 gemiddelde van de langstlopende dataset. Alle tijdseries (gekleurde lijnen corresponderen met verschillende datasets) tonen jaarlijkse waarden. Waar beschikbaar zijn de onzekerheden aangegeven met gekleurde banden. Bron: Rob van Dorland, in: ‘De Staat van het Klimaat 2014’, HIER Klimaatbureau, Utrecht, 2014, pp.10-14.
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Average global temperature change (relative to average value of 1961-1990)
Question: Quite some people are saying: “We are noticing a stagnation in the warming-up of the earth”.
True or False?
Source: KNMI, De Bilt, 2012
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Elsevier – 02-10-2013
Which heating?
Welke opwarming? Klimaatpanel IPCC wordt met elk rapport ongeloofwaardiger. Zeker nu de temperatuur sinds 1998 niet meer stijgt. Door Simon Rozendaal Er is weer een nieuw rapport van het VNklimaatpanel IPCC. En opnieuw luidt de boodschap dat het zeer waarschijnlijk is dat de opwarming door de mens wordt veroorzaakt. Je moet maar durven.
NRC-HB – 21 -09-2013
The disaster that didn’t come
De ramp die niet kwam Door Karel Knip
De modellen die het broeikaseffect voorspellen, hadden niet voorzien dat het op aarde al twaalf jaar niet meer warmer wordt. Alle waarschuwingen voor de rampen die klimaatverandering zal veroorzaken, zijn nog veel dubieuzer. (…) Klimaatverandering bestaat. Maar al die CO2 veroorzaakt tot nu toe geen overstromingen. Geen cyclonen. Geen woestijnvorming. Geen malaria. Geen voedseltekorten. Geen waterschaarste. En geen oorlog.
Trouw – 21 sept. 2013
Aarde warmt minder snel Heating of the op dan gedacht earth less than Door Joep Engels
expected
De klimaatsceptici krijgen een beetje gelijk: de aarde warmt mogelijk iets minder snel op dan eerder voorspeld. Deze ontwikkeling is nieuwe brandstof voor de verhitte controverses over de noodzaak van urgente maatregelen om het klimaat te redden.
De Volkskrant – 28 sept. 2013
Heating is inevitable
Opwarming is onontkoombaar Het is nu vrijwel zeker: het komt door de mens. Die stoot zoveel broeikasgassen uit dat de aarde aan het opwarmen is. En die opwarming zet door, zelfs als vandaag alle uitstoot van CO2 stopt. Door Martijn van Calmthout en Maarten Keulemans De mens is de belangrijkste oorzaak van de opwarming van de aarde, zeker in de periode na 1950. Dit concludeert het VN panel IPCC met aan zekerheid grenzende waarschijnlijkheid in zijn 5de rapportage over klimaatverandering. Het rapport legt een vrijwel eenduidig verband tussen veranderingen in de atmosfeer, de oceanen en de ijsmassa’s enerzijds en de toenemende concentratie van CO2 en andere broeikasgassen in de lucht.
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The greenhouse effect and Global Warming - two remarks 1. ‘Global Warming’ is not equivalent to ‘average temperature on earth (troposhere)’ ! because of mechanisms like: - storage of heat into the (deep) ocean; - heat used to warm land, to melt ice, etcetera 2. The greenhouse effect of gases like CO2, caused by molecular absorption of heat radiation, is a scientific fact – nevertheless quite some (sceptical) people are denying it. For a demonstration of the absorption of heat radiation bij CO2, see a 1-min. movie on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot5n9m4whaw 7
Where is global warming going?
Source: John Cook, ‘Where is global warming going?’, Skeptical Science, 20 April 2010. (Calculated from IPCC-AR4; data from the period 1993-2003)
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(8 January 2014)
Two views on global warming The data (green) are the average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
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Carbon budget, ‘stranded assets’ and CCS
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Development of global CO2 emissions from energy and industrial sources to limit temp. change to below 2°C (prob. > 50%) - GEA energy pathways toward a sustainable future -
Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012
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Global Carbon budget compatible with limiting global warming to +2°C versus fossil fuel reserves
Conventional and unconventional fossil fuel reserves of coal, oil, and gas and the global carbon budget compatible with scenarios limiting global mean warming to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures (with a 66% probability). Source of Fossil Fuel reserves: IPCC, 2011 (figure 1.7). Source of Carbon budget: IPCC, 2013 and IPCC erratum, November 2013.
Source figure: ECF, “Statement by leading climate and energy scientists”, 2013
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Unburnable Carbon and Stranded Assets Carbon Tracker (2013): -
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The Carbon budget for a 2°C scenario would be around 565-886 GtCO2 to 2050. A precautionary approach would mean that only 20% of the total fossil fuel reserves of 2,860 GtCO2 can be burnt to 2050. As a result the global economy faces fossil fuel assets becoming stranded.
Source: Carbon Tracker, ‘Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets’, 2013
Comments WCT: -
Not the use of fossil fuels but the emission of CO2 is the problem!
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Carbon Tracker, and groups like Urgenda in NL, don’t give enough attention to the potential of CCS, although CCS can have a large impact (~2000 GtCO2) on ‘unburnable carbon’ and ‘stranded assets’!
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However, within about 20 years we can’t allow any new investments in unabated use of any fossil fuel (given ‘max +2°C), having huge consequences for Shell, Exxon, BP, Gasunie, EBN, RWE, E.ON, etc. 13
Energy scenarios & Renewables
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World Primary Energy Supply in 2009 (using GEA substitution method to calculate contribution from renewables) Fossil fuels: - oil - gas - coal
412 EJ
( 78 % )
167 EJ 106 EJ 139 EJ
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Renewables: - large hydro 30 EJ *) - traditional biomass 39 EJ - ‘new’ renewables 20 EJ *)
89 EJ
Nuclear:
27 EJ
( 17 % )
Figure NL: ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ also ~ 4%
(~ 4%)
( 5%)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Total:
528 EJ
( 100 % )
*) Assuming for hydro, wind, solar and geothermal electricity: 1 EJ(el) = 2.85 EJ savings on fossil fuels, and for solar and geothermal heat: 1 EJ(th) = 1.17 EJ savings on fossil fuels. Source: W.C. Turkenburg et al., ‘Renewable Energy’. In: Global Energy Assessment, 2012, chapter 11
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Gross inland energy consumption EU-28 (1990-2012) Gross energy consumption EU-28, in Mtoe (1990-2012)
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Between 2006 and 2012, gross inland energy consumption in the EU-28 has fallen by 8%.
-
Between 2006 and 2012 energy consumption fell in 24 Member states, but increased in Estonia (+12%), Netherlands (+3%), Poland (+1%), and Sweden (+0.4%).
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In 2012, Denmark the only net exporter of energy.
2006
1990 (EJ)
2000 (EJ)
2006 (EJ)
2010 (EJ)
2012 (EJ)
% change 2006/2012
Energy dependence rate, 2012
EU-28
69.82
72.31
76.71
73.65
70.46
-8%
53%
Belgium
2.04
2.48
2.41
2.54
2.36
-2%
74%
Denmark
0.75
0.83
0.88
0.84
0.76
-14%
-3%
Germany
14.92
14.33
14.73
13.97
13.38
-9%
61%
Netherlands
2.80
3.17
3.33
3.63
3.43
+3%
31%
UK
8.83
9.66
9.65
8.84
8.47
-12%
42%
Source: Eurostat, 17 February 2014
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World renewables-based power sector investments by type (2001-2012) and total generation by type (2012)
Increase of investments in new renewables by a factor 100 within about 20 years)! Source: IEA, 2013 (based on: BNEF, 2013)
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Global Market Overview – Power Markets - Renewable energy comprises more than 26% of global power generation capacity in 2012. - Almost 22% of global electricity was produced from renewable energy (with 16.5% from hydro). - Renewables accounted globally for just over half (51%) of the estimated 280 GW of new installed electric capacity in 2012 (and in Europe even 70%). - We are witnessing a revolution in the energy field!
Source: REN21, ‘Renewables 2013 Global Status Report’, June 2013
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IEA on Renewables: Market Analysis 2014 & Forecasts to 2020 - In 2013, renewable power capacity expanded at its fastest pace to date. - Renewable power generation continued to grow strongly, reaching almost 22% of the global mix, compared with 21% in 2012 and 18% in 2007. - Globally, renewable electricity generation is now on par with that of natural gas, which remained relatively stable in 2013. - Investment in new renewable power capacity topped USD 250 billion globally in 2013 and is likely to remain at high levels. - Nevertheless, policy and market risks are increasingly clouding the development picture. - As a result, renewable power capacity additions and investment are expected to level off through 2020. Source: IEA, “Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014”, August 2014
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Some recent energy scenario studies - Can we achieve a sustainable future? -
• Shell, 2013: ‘New LENS scenarios’ (Mountains and Oceans) - Global warming will continue up to at least +4°C. - Increase energy efficiency: 1.4% per year. - Contribution from renewables in 2050: 22%-31%.
• GEA, 2012: ‘Toward a Sustainable Future’ - Many combinations of energy resources, end-use, and supply technologies that can simultaneously address the multiple sustainability challenges. - Increase energy efficiency: 1.5% up to 2.2% per year. - Contribution from renewables in 2050: 30%-75%. - Cumulative storage of CO2 in 2050: up to 250 GtCO2.
• Ecofys and WWF, 2011: ‘The Energy Report’ - A fully sustainable system is possible by 2050. - Increase energy efficiency: 3%-4% per year. - Almost 100% of all energy carriers, all regions and all sectors of the global energy system can be renewable, by 2050.
NO !
YES !
YES !
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Renewable Energy in The Netherlands
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Contribution renewables to gross electricity consumption in NL (1990-2013) and in EU-28 (2012)
Contribution RE in NL (2012): about 10.5% to electr. cons. mostly from biomass and wind
Bron: CBS, July 2014
Contribution RE in EU-28 (2012): about 23.5% to electr. cons.
Ranking NL on renew. electr.: nr. 24
Source: Eurostat, 2013
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Contribution renewables to gross energy consumption in NL and EU-28 in 2012 Contribution RE in NL (2012): about 4.5% to energy cons. -
mostly from biomass (86.9%) and wind (11.3%) from solar 1.3%, geoth. 0.3% and hydro 0.2%
Contribution RE in EU-28 (2012): about 14.1% to energy cons. -
65.4% from biomass energy 16.2% from hydro power 10.0% from wind energy 5.2% from solar energy 3.2% from geothermal energy 0.02% from tide, wave, and ocean power
Source: Eurostat, 2014
Ranking NL on renew. energy: nr. 25 Note: • NL has limited resources: - small country (in km2); - hardly any hydro power resources; - limited availability of land for biomass energy cultures.
• Also: high ranking NL on population density: nr. 2 Nevertheless, within EU-28: • Ranking NL on biopower use: nr. 6 • Ranking NL on wind electricity: nr. 13 • Ranking NL on solar PV: nr. 13
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Cumulative installed grid-connected solar-PV in NL
Source: P.J. Segaar, 2014 – based on: CBS, 26 May 2014
Forecast for 2020: between 4 and 8 GigaWatt installed Source: Wim Sinke, ECN, 2014 24
Renewable Energy in 2011 in the EU countries (EU-27) The colour table shows: Within the EU, the Netherlands is not a favourable country for renewable energy, apart from wind energy
Source: Wim Turkenburg Consultancy, 2013 (based on data from IRENA, 2013).
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How to deal with intermittent renewables (wind / solar-PV)? … and misunderstandings about P2G and re-utilization of CO2
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Integrating renewables:
Electricity production by solar PV, wind and conventional capacity in Germany, 21-17 May 2012
Source: Fraunhofer ISI, 2013
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Integrating renewables: Spain’s (possible) load curve and supply in 2050, Week 27 (on an hourly basis; weather data from 2008)
Calculation based on the PowerAce model Source: W. Eichhammer, June 2013 / Fraunhofer ISI, 2012 28
Integrating renewables:
Effect on peak electricity prices
Solar power reduces average trading prices on liquid wholesale markets (Merit Order Effect) Source: Wim Sinke, ECN, 2013 (based on EU PVTP GA 2012 and IZES, Germany, 2012)
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“EU utilities to be negatively affected by low energy prices until 2020” “Low wholesale power prices will make Europe's utilities suffer, corroding their revenues until the end of the decade since increasing renewable production and low demand integrate” (Source: rating agency Moody, on 3 July 2014). - Europe's electricity generators have been pressurized by the development of renewable energy, which is causing overcapacity and eroding prices, while productive coal-fired power stations are obliged to shut down under European climate protection regulations. - Benchmark German wholesale electricity prices have decreased by more than 40 percent since spring 2011, when Japan's Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown rose global energy prices. - Meanwhile, electricity demand has been reducing due to the euro zone crisis and enhancing energy efficiency. Source: Energy Market Price, 3 July 2014
Electricity - Germany - spot price baseload (EUR/MWh) Electricity - France - spot price baseload (EUR/MWh)
Negative!
Blue: Germany / Red: France
NB: At the end of 2013, the total installed renewable capacity - mostly solar and onshore wind, in Germany, Spain, Britain, France, Italy and the Nordic region - augmented to 290,000 MW, an increase from 205,000 MW in 2009. 30
Interaction between renewable energy supply, conventional energy supply, and the demand side Figure shows: - Many options available to deal with flexibility components (solar-PV & wind). - Power-to-Heat at present far more attractive than Power-toGas (P2G). - Large scale P2G probably not attractive below 80% contribution from flexibility components!
Source: Steering Committee of the Renewable Energy Platforms, Germany, 15 Oct. 2012
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Surplus Electricity in 8 scenarios until 2050 Power sector will demand storage > 80% share of RE
Source: Michael Sterner, ‘The impact of the next big thing: (Solar) energy storage’, OTH Regensburg, 2014
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’Utility in a box’ When and where distributed solar generation plus storage competes with traditional utility service Vision of Rocky Mountain Institute (Amory Lovins), CohnReznick Think Energy, and HOMER Energy (2014): - Distributed electricity generation, especially solar PV, is rapidly spreading and getting much cheaper. - Distributed electricity storage is doing the same, thanks largely to mass production of batteries for electric vehicles. - Together they can make the electric grid optional for many customers — without compromising reliability and increasingly at prices cheaper than utility retail electricity. - Equipped with a solar-plus-battery system, customers can take or leave traditional utility service with what amounts to a “utility in a box”. - The point at which solar-plus-battery systems reach grid parity is well within the 30-year planned economic life of central power plants and transmission infrastructure. Source: Rocky Mountain Institute, et al, ‘The Economics of Grid Defection’, RMI, USA, 2014, 72 pp.
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Historic Battery Price Y-axis: 2012$/kWh
Battery Price Projection Y-axis: 2012$/kWh
Data from: US Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg New Energy Finance & Navigant Research
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute a.o., ‘The Economics of Grid Defection’, RMI, USA, 2014, 72 pp
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Power-to-Gas (H2 and/or CH4) Energy storage by coupling electricity and gas networks
Source: Michael Sterner, ‘The impact of the next big thing: (Solar) energy storage’, OTH Regensburg, 2014
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Power-to-Gas (H2 / CH4) - From the perspective of climate change, the production of CH4 using H2 from solar/wind and captured CO2 from fossil fuel power plants can only be an option if it doesn’t result into an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
- Electrochemical production of H2 is very expensive: About 510€/kgH2. Also ~25% of the kWh-energy will be lost (but in practise at present ~50%). - Note: Captured CO2 from a coal plant would cost at present about 80$/tCO2. - There is a need to develop a H2 production technology with (much) lower energy losses and production costs. - An interesting approach might be: plasmolytic H2 production: step 1: CO from CO2 (CO2 → CO + ½ O2) step 2: water-gas shift reaction (CO + H2O → CO2 + H2) step 3: Separating H2 from CO2 and re-use CO2 in step 1 Source: Partly based on a discussion with Richard van de Sanden, DIFFER, NL, 7 January 2014.
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Advies Commissie Duurzame Toekomst Noord-Oost Groningen Maatregel 11 (330 mln Euro): Ambitieus innovatieprogramma ‘Gas 2.0’
“De aanwezigheid van de gassector en bijbehorende transportinfrastructuur bieden Power2Gas geweldige mogelijkheden: • De omzetting van overschotten (duurzame) elektriciteit in gasvormige energiedragers als waterstof en synthetisch aardgas. • CO2 dat vrijkomt bij verbranding van fossiele brandstoffen kan benut worden door er, met behulp van goedkope duurzame elektriciteit, methaan van te maken.
Bron: Commissie Wim Meijer et al., 2013
• Het gassysteem, inclusief de ‘nieuwe gassen’ als waterstof en synthetisch methaan, kan worden gebruikt om energie op te slaan en het wisselende aanbod van zon- en windenergie in te passen (balanceren).” 37
Misunderstandings about re-utilization of CO2 - Re-utilization of captured CO2 from fossil fuel power plants is more and more promoted [see e.g.: Chemical Magazine; TV program ‘Labyrint’; Report Cie Meijer (Noord-Groningen); NWO and FOM research progr.; EDGaR progr., URGENDA, TKI-Gas, etc.].
- But: From the perspective of climate change it can only be an option if the emission of CO2 to the air is reduced, and about 25-30 years from now completely avoided. (Thereafter CO2 emissions should become negative!)
Consequently: - Re-utilization of fossil CO2 in horticultures: not a permanent solution when striving for zero GHG emissions. - Re-utilization of CO2: no problem when CO2 from biomass. - Re-utilization of fossil CO2: only in a circular approach! - Massive application of methanation of H2 only with air capture of CO2. Cost CO2: ~$600/tonne (Source: Am. Phys. Soc., 2011). 38
Thanks! Wim Turkenburg
[email protected]
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