CLIMATE CHANGE Choose your future today
www.futureproofed.com
Serge de Gheldere
THE CLIMATE PROJECT “Climate ambassador” for Al Gore
(Clients)
Nike Ecover Fortis Holistic Architecture European Parliament Van Marcke Groep Machiels Colruyt Bayer Cropscience Houthalen - Helchteren
GROEPT Engineering College Guest professor / director
FUTUREPROOFED.com • climate change solutions Mara Callaert, Jan Aerts, Serge de Gheldere, Steven Van Praet, Lore Vantomme
1980
2005
Disappearing artic ice: surface comparison
2005 Extent
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Equivalent Area
2005
Decrease of artic sea-ice extend over time 10
sea ice area in million km2
9
8
7
6
5
2007
4 1953
2007
1960
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
1970
1980
1990
2000
75 % CHANCE SUMMER ARTIC ICE
GONE IN 5 YEARS
© Bryon and Cherry Alexander
Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
Peace nobel prize laureates 2007 Al Gore + IPCC
Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007
Change in Annual Global Temperatures
The Ten Hottest Years on Record
Temperature Change in ºC
1,0
0,7
2005
2007
1998
2002
2003
2006
2004
2001
2008
1999
0,4
0,1
-0,2 1900
Source: New York Times / Andrew Revkin; NCDC / University of Alabama, Huntsville Note: 1901—2000 used as baseline
1950
2000
Source: NASA/GISS
Global warming is effect of mainly human causes
Expected level within 40 years
600
500
400
300 CO2
280
human
CO2 [ppmv]
260 240 220 200 180 Temperature
natural
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 IPCC 2007
Years before present
Upsala Gletsjer Argentina
Portage Gletsjer Alaska
1928
1914
2004
Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org
Photo: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra
Rhone Glacier
Rhone Glacier
2004
Himalayan glaciers melting lakes
Himalayan Glaciers 40% of the world’s population depends on the Himalayan watershed for water Yangtze River
Indus River Salween River
Brahmaputra River
Ganges River
Mekong River
Yellow River
Switzerland August 23, 2005
AP Photo/Keystone, Allesandro della Valle
Cedar Rapids, Iowa June 12, 2008
Photo: AP Photo/Steve Pope
Chehalis, Washington December 4, 2007
Photo: AP Photo/Elaine Thompson
Yantai Airport China, 2007
Photo: China Foto Press
Amazon River Brazil, October 2005
Photo: Daniel Beltra/Greenpeace
More than 13.000 excess deaths during heat wave !"#""$%&'()*+"$+"$#&,,&'()-&.)#&,,"(*/+"'
Victoria, Australia February 9, 2009
!"# $%"&'(')*') +,,! -./0&12* &&3*&4 )*./5(.6&44.37"$89:8 ;&&/(.3<=.3 &&3*&4 )*./5(.6&44.37"!$>!$
Paris, 3 - 15 August 2003 Photo: NASA GSFC/MODIS Rapid Response Team
Victoria, Australia
Tonimbuk, Australia
February 9, 2009
February 7, 2009
Photo: NASA GSFC/MODIS Rapid Response Team
Photo: AP
Kinglake, Australia
Worldwide Fires
February 8, 2009
Photo: AP/Rick Rycroft
January – September, 2008
Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
A Century of WeatherRelated Disasters Includes droughts, extreme temperatures,
50
floods, landslides, waves and surges, wildfires and wind storms.
The U.S has suffered more weather related disasters than any other country
The United States The rest of the world
The rest of the world
The United States
1900
1950
2007
Source: Center of Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
Source: Center of Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
How much improvement is needed ?
Tropospheric CO2
Tropospheric CO2
July 2003
July 2008
386
363 Source: NASA/JPL
CO2 Concentration PPMV
386
363 Source: NASA/JPL
CO2 Concentration PPMV
The global challenge is immense ton CO2 / person*year
What is a ‘safe’ level ? !2°C
22,0
22,0
16,5 16,0 14,4
! 350 ppm CO2 equiv
11,0 10,5
emissions = absorption
5,5
-90 % by 2040 6,0
2,0
0
USA
Russia
Belgium
E.U.
China
India
1,2
Target
Sustainable prosperity
Sustainable prosperity
Human Development Index
Ecological Footprint
We share a common goal on a crowded planet:
Ecological Footprint
We share a common goal on a crowded planet:
Human Development Index
FUTUREPROOFED VISION
90% reduction = factor 10
FACTOR 10 =
NECESSARY
POSSIBLE DESIRABLE PROFITABLE
Interface Carpets
FACTOR 10 improvement at lower INITIAL cost
-90 % From
the
Driv ep
ower
Tech
nolo
gy A
tlas.
Pipes
Larger diameter; straight layout
Pump specs.
Smaller pumps and motors
Capital investment
Lower than original design
Pumping power (hp)
before: 95
STRATEGY TO CUT CARBON AND COSTS
transportation
after: 7
saving: 93%
buildings
change of behavior
1. Energy efficiency first 2. Renewables second
government initiatives new business opportunities
Sources: EIPRO study (2006), Futureproof/ed
BUILDINGS HOW TO IMPROVE COMFORT AND REDUCE TCO AND CARBON
Parans lighting system Optical fibres transporting energy instead of data
food
Applied foresight: more insulation, better windows, high air tightness and heat recovery from exhaust air Air tight construction Season dependent shading Triple-pane, low-e glazing gain more heat than they lose Highly efficient appliances
Earth-to-air heat exchangers to precool the intake air
Great thermal insulation against cold and heat No thermal bridges Highly efficient ventilation with heat recovery and bypass for (night) cooling Minimal additional heating or cooling through ventilation
4 to 7 x more efficient
4 to 7 x more efficient
Energy requirements kWh per m2 per year
Energy requirements kWh per m2 per year
300
300
275
275
225
225
170
150
75
40
0
Current buildings Newly built Passive
4 to 7 x more efficient
4 to 7 x more efficient
Energy requirements kWh per m2 per year
Energy requirements kWh per m2 per year
300
300
275
275
225
225
170
150
75
40
Current buildings Newly built Passive
OPEN KLIMAATHUIZEN IS EEN ORGANISATIE VAN BOND BETER LEEFMILIEU
Dat verleden en toekomst onlosmakelijk met elkaar verbonden zijn, staat vast. De manier waarop kan echter verrassen. Zo is de 78-jarige Sonia Skatchkoff uit Kortrijk eigenares van een ecologisch passiefhuis, volgens zieners de bouwstijl van morgen. Dat haar zoon Serge de Gheldere heet, de Vlaamse klimaatambassadeur van Al Gore is en tot dat clubje zieners behoort, heeft daar uiteraard alles mee te maken.
tekst Dirk Knapen & Sarah Vandenbroucke foto Dirk Knapen, courtesy of Stad Kortrijk tekening HUB architectuur
Afspreken doen we ten huize Skatchkoff, in een nieuwe verkaveling aan de rand van Kortrijk. Er worden ijverig rijwoningen gebouwd in klassieke stijl. Het passiefhuis met het zaagtanddak en de houten gevelbekleding ligt wat verscholen aan de rand ervan. Toen mevrouw Skatchkoff in 2002 begon uit te kijken naar een kleinere en minder kostelijke woning, stond zoon Serge pal achter de idee van een nieuwbouw – zolang ze maar passief zou bouwen. ‘Vroeger woonde ik in een woning hierachter’, verklaart de bewoonster. ‘Een mooi huis uit de jaren zestig dat slecht geïsoleerd was. In augustus 2006 bezochten we op een koude, miezerige dag een passiefhuis in Destelbergen. Zonder verwarming was het daar aangenaam warm. Toen we daarna thuis kwamen was het, al was hartje zomer, ongezellig kil. Bijna ongemerkt is toen de beslissing gevallen.’ ‘Wie hier over de vloer komt, brengt nog al te vaak dezelfde vooroordelen mee. Hoewel ze zelf aanvoelen dat de temperatuur hier binnen altijd aangenaam is, komt steeds weer de vraag of het wel goed gaat bij -15°C. Toen ik hier naartoe verhuisde in maart had het gesneeuwd. Toch was het hier warm genoeg. Goochelen met de thermostaat is niet meer nodig en de dikke truien die ik had meegePrevious home
10 x lower energy bill Monthly energy bill in eur
300 225 150 75 0
290!"
22!"
nomen blijven in de kast liggen.’ Waar mevrouw Skatchkoff helemaal van omver viel, is het feit dat er vanuit de centrale open keuken geen geuren ontsnappen naar de woonkamer. De ventilatielucht stroomt namelijk van de kamers aan de buitenwand naar het centrale blok. ‘Dat kon ik toch moeilijk geloven. Ik heb het uitgetest met bloemkool, vis, witlof… maar even later is er echt niets meer te ruiken.’
Exceptional thermal comfort
Kortrijks-Russische roots Het opvallende zaagtanddak en de vlasisolatie lijken te verwijzen naar lokale textielgebouwen en de traditionele Kortrijkse vlasindustrie. Bespeuren we ook een vleugje nostalgie naar de Russische roots van mevrouw Skatchkoff? ‘Dat zou kunnen. Mijn vader was Russisch, vandaar wellicht mijn voorliefde voor de geur van hout. Hij had hier ook een textielfabriek met een dergelijk dak – vlas zat altijd in de familie. Vroeger hing hier ’s zomers in de streek een doordringende geur van in het water rottende vlas – passanten vroegen ons hoe we hier konden wonen.’ ‘Architect Bart Biermans (HUB architectuur, Antwerpen) heeft een schetsontwerp voorgesteld dat qua vorm ook verwijst naar de achterliggende wijk’, vult Serge aan. ‘Daar is op aansturen van mijn grootvader in de jaren zestig volgens een streng lastenkohier een volledige wijk gebouwd. Die is nu nog steeds erg leefbaar. De wijk werd ontworpen door een jonge architect-urbanist Jan De Jaegher en heeft iets van een kashba (ommuurde stadswijk in steden in Noord-Afrika met veel patio’s en verborgen voortuintjes, nvdr.). De gevels zien er vrij gelijk uit, met wit geschilderde baksteen. Maar iedere bewoner heeft de binnenkant zelf ingedeeld, en er een persoonlijke toets aan gegeven. De luxe
Passive house 12
BOND BETER LEEFMILIEU 18&19 OKT 2008
40
0
Current buildings Newly built Passive
‘De toekomst is: warme, behaaglijke passiefgebouwen’
170
75
0
Serge de Gheldere: klimaat- en passiefhuisambassadeur
40
0
Current buildings Newly built Passive
150
170
150
75
18&19 OKT 2008 OPEN KLIMAATHUIZEN
13
Source PHP
-90 %
10 x lower emissions CO2 emissions kg per ton 1000
750 500 250 50 0
10 Electricity production Fossil fuel Process emissions
Ground granulated slack replaces Portland Cement 1 ton portland cement = 1 ton CO2
Wooddach pavilion Hannover
TRANSPORTATION HOW TO IMPROVE PERFORMANCE AND CUT CARBON
Locally, solar produced, CO2 sequestering, biodegradable, renewable, high performance composite materials.
Foldable bikes
Metro-like efficiency. Bus-like investment.
Protected bus shelter with sale and validation of tickets
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wide
Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wide
Rapid, easy in and out of busses
Reserved bus-lanes. High frequency in peak hours.
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wide
Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wide
87 % of fuel energy wasted in conventional car Engine loss Idling loss 87 % wasted Drivetrain loss Accessory loss Braking resistance Rolling resistance 13 % tractive load Aerodynamic drag
Aerodynamic drag 3% Rolling resistance 4% Braking resistance 6% 2% Drivetrain loss 6%
Idling loss 17%
National Geographic
Decrease in SUV sales in US since 2004 5
USA
(million)
4 3 2 1 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Sources: WARD’S AUTO
Engine loss 62%
Graph: Futureproofed
Angelina Jolie Arianna Huffington Billy Crystal Brad Pitt Cameron Diaz Charlize Theron Danny DeVito David Duchovny Edward Norton Ewan McGregor Gwyneth Paltrow Harrison Ford Jack Black Jack Nicholson Jenifer Lopez J.J. Abrams Julia Roberts Kevin Bacon Kirsten Durst Larry Page Leonardo DiCaprio Natalie Portman Meryl Streep Penolope Cruz Prince Charles Robin Williams Salma Hayek Sergey Brin Sheryl Crow Susan Sarandon Tim Robbins Ted Danson Tom Hanks Woody Harrelson Will Ferrell
Prius 3 • June 2009 • 134 pk • 89 g CO2 / km • 3.9 l/100 km
-80 %
350 - 400 km radius 46 g CO2/km (well to wheel) 0 - 100 km/h: 3.7 s
Tesla Model S
-80 %
5 x more efficient Energy requirements kWh per 100 km per passenger 80
80
60
480 km radius 5 adults + 2 children 45 g CO2/km
well to wheel, using grey electricity
0 - 100 km/h: 5.6 s
40 20 15 0 Car
Tesla S
Plug-in hybrid project: RechargeIT (Google.org)
Plug-in hybrid project: RechargeIT (Google.org)
Plug-in hybrid project: RechargeIT (Google.org)
Plug-in hybrid project: RechargeIT (Google.org)
STRATEGY TO CUT CARBON AND COSTS
‘do-it-yourself’ solar boiler courses kwb.be
1. “Negawatts” first 2. Renewables second
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
High Voltage DC connects it all
A new energy infrastructure: THE ENERGY SUPER GRID
C-power / Belwinds
Solar income is strong, consistant, and could be a source of wealth
New sources of solar income
Source: Massive Change
Carbon Footprint Methodology
CASE
production
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (Deloitte + Futureproofed)
1.000.000 m2 10.000 people 3 countries
10.000 people 20 buildings 1 million m2 3 countries
COST CURVE FOR EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
European parliament 2007 Carbon footprint Our fee !
Rest 1% Fixed assets 19%
30%
Energy in house 32%
Services 20% Transport of persons 28%
Source: Futureproofed
GDP cost for mitigation are low relative to overall growth
Boost upside
Reduce downside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
Costs
Risks
From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
Source: IPCC, AR4, Barker & Jenkins
The missing powerplant Austin Texas utilities Boost upside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
Costs
Risks
Reduce downside
730 MW powerplant completely avoided, at lower cost by National Geographic reduction of energy demand through rebates on energy-saving appliances
From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
Coca cola Water Stewardship
Boost upside
Reduce downside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
Costs
Risks
From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
Tesla Model S
Boost upside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
-80 %
5 x more efficient Energy requirements kWh per 100 km per passenger Reduce downside
Costs
80
Risks 480 km radius 5 adults + 2 children 45 g CO2/km
well to wheel, using grey electricity From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
80
60
0 - 100 km/h: 5.6 s
40 20 15 0 Car
Tesla S
Boost upside
Reduce downside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
Costs
Risks
Boost upside
Reduce downside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
Costs
Risks
From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
Patagonia: Footprint chronicles
Boost upside
Reduce downside
short term (more certain)
long term (less certain)
Revenues
Intangibles
Costs
Risks
From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
Cleantech Biotech Software
Software 26%
Cleantech 39%
Biotech 35%
Q3 2009 - Venture capital investment (USA) Cleantech venture capital sector largest.
Green building 110 $ Solar 253!$
Transportation Solar Green building
Transportation 383!$
RESOURCES 1. www.natcap.com 2. www.ted.com 3. www.withouthotair.com 4. www.rmi.org
Q3 2009 - Venture capital in million $ (USA) Estimated total global cleantech investment in Q3: 1.9 billion dollar
THINKING IN SYSTEMS Donella Meadows
NATURAL CAPITALISM
www.amazon.co.uk
Amory, & Hunter Lovins, Paul Hawken
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY WITHOUT THE HOT AIR
TED TALKS
David J. MacKay
Assorted speakers (500 talks): Michael McDonough / Janine Benyus / Ross Lovegrove / Al Gore / Bill Clinton / Juan Enriquez
www.withouthotair.com
YOUR TURN
TO CUT CARBON AND COSTS
BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE
www.natcap.org
www.ted.com
YOUR TURN
TO CUT CARBON AND COSTS
POLITICAL INITIATIVES Demand visionary leadership and courage from our representatives at Copenhagen 1. 350 ppm 2. < 2°C 3. Climate law 4. Assistance for developing countries
YOUR TURN
TO CUT CARBON AND COSTS
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES 1. Map organization’s emissions 2. Identify climate opportunities 3. Implement action plan 4. Inspire others with your succes www.futureproofed.com
