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Teleurstellend mager economisch herstel in 2011 komt niet geheel onverwacht Het afgelopen jaar zagen we een mager economisch herstel. Voor 2011 ligt er niet veel beters in het verschiet. Dit is uitermate teleurstellend gezien de voorafgaande stevige recessie, maar komt niet onverwacht. In de Verenigde Staten, maar ook in een aantal Europese landen, leefden consumenten jarenlang op de pof. De wereldwijde crisis legde dit genadeloos bloot, evenals ernstige tekortkomingen in de Amerikaanse en Europese financiële sector en de spanning in de overheidsfinanciën. Economische actoren zijn druk bezig met het opbouwen van nieuwe financiële buffers. Dit is een noodzakelijk, maar langdurig proces dat een rem zet op de economische groei. Het vertrekpunt met torenhoge overheidsschulden in veel landen en hoge werkloosheid helpen absoluut niet om het aanpassingsproces te versnellen of te verzachten. In dit onzekere ondernemingsklimaat blijven bedrijven uiterst behouden in hun investeringsbeslissingen.

Auteurs

Allard Bruinshoofd Eddie Clarke Jane Foley Adrian Foster Elwin de Groot Shahin Kamalodin Jan Lambregts Tim Legierse Philip Marey Elisabeth Selk Financial Markets Research & Kennis en Economisch Onderzoek

Structureel weinig opgelost _",%47(& 9"#*$+--+,%& 7.& %+& ;",.()(+#7,*& %)(& ,)& 6++#& %),& ?Q& <))#& 3),& =7,),;7X1+& ;#7.7.& %+& *#"(+& $+#+1%$7<%+& ",+3+,$7;0(7*0+%+,& 7,();(& 97<,& *+/1+3+,B& V+(& T6+#7H -)),.+&(+-"#(&"5&%+&1"5+,%+&#+-+,7,*&/17<=(&*#""(&+,&1""5(&)1$++#&"5A&(+#$7<1&Y07,)&%+& $7..+1-"+#.&3),&%+&D4),&-4,.(6)(7*&1))*&0"4%(&+,&97<,&3)14()#+.+#3+.&7,&.+5(+6/+#& >E8E&("(&/"3+,&%+&@U`&>B:EE&671<)#%&9)*&.(7<*+,B&S+&/+1),*#7<-.(+&;+,(#)1+&/),-+,& 9")1.&%+&T6+#7-)),.+&a+%+#)1&_+.+#3+&ba+%cA&%+&F4#"5+.+&Y+,(#)1+&P),-&bFYPcA&%+& P),-&"=&d)5),&bP"dc&+,&%+&P),-&"=&F,*1),%&bP"Fc&0),(+#+,&41(#)1)*+&/+1+7%.#+,(+.&+,& 17<-+,&$+7,7*&*+,+7*%&07+#&.,+1&3+#),%+#7,*&7,&(+&/#+,*+,B&S+&a+%&+,&%+&P"F&3"+#+,& ++,& /+1+7%& 3),& -$),(7()(7+3+& 3+##4767,*B& S7(& 7.& ++,& 6",+()7#& +Z5+#76+,(& %)(& 97<,& $++#*)&,7+(&-+,(A&6+(&)11+.7;"e.&3),&%7+,B&S+&"51"..7,*+,&3),&6",+()7#+&+,&=7.;)1+& /+1+7%.6)-+#.&/+.()),&3))-&"5&-"#(+&(+#67<,&47(&6++#&3),&0+(9+1=%+A&.765+1$+*&"6& (+&3""#-"6+,&%)(&0+,&7,);(737(+7(&-),&$"#%+,&3+#$+(+,B Kunnen we geloven in verandering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Figuur 16: Intra-Europese onevenwichtigheden

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Figuur 17: Gemis van Zuid-Europese consument

Figuur 18: Herstel concurrentievermogen is nodig

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Nederland: wennen aan een lager groeipad

De economie krabbelt in 2010 op uit een diepe recessie. Na een economische krimp van bijna 4% in 2009 neemt het reële BBP in 2010 naar verwachting met gemiddeld 1¾% toe. Dit is niet genoeg om het productieniveau weer te tillen tot het niveau van voor de crisis. De Nederlandse economie profiteert in 2010 van de groeiende vraag uit het buitenland en van de stimuleringsmaatregelen van de overheid. De consument laat vooralsnog op zich wachten en er wordt maar in beperkte mate geïnvesteerd. In de periode 2012-2016 valt de reële BBP-groei, met naar verwachting gemiddeld 1½%, lager uit dan in 2010. Hier zijn onder meer de afvlakkende wereldhandelsgroei en de forse bezuinigingsmaatregelen van de Nederlandse overheid debet aan. Deze bezuinigingen spelen bovendien de consument parten. In de komende jaren komt de gemiddelde groei naar verwachting lager uit dan wat potentieel mogelijk is en veel lager dan we in de jaren voor de crisis gewend waren.

Auteurs

Ruth van de Belt Anke Struijs

Economisch herstel verliest aan kracht R,&,)3"1*7,*&3),&%+&)=31)--+,%+&*#"+7&3),&0+(&$+#+1%0),%+1.3"146+&3+#1""#&""-&0+(& +;","67.;0&0+#.(+1&7,&M+%+#1),%&,)&0+(&($++%+&-$)#())1&)),&-#);0(B&]+#$7<1&%+&*#"+7& 7,&0+(&($++%+&-$)#())1&3),&>E8E&,"*&EALK&/+%#"+*&(+,&"597;0(+&3),&0+(&-$)#())1& +#3""#A&-#"65&0+(&3"146+&3),&%+&+;","67+&7,&0+(&%+#%+&-$)#())1&6+(&EA8K&b-H"H-c& !"#$%%&' *3)B& S+& -#765& 7,& 0+(& %+#%+& -$)#())1& /+(+-+,(& +;0(+#& ,7+(& %)(& $+& )),& %+& 3""#)3",%&.()),&3),&++,&,7+4$+&#+;+..7+B&V+(&0+#.(+1&,)&++,&=7,),;7X1+&;#7.7.&3+#1""5(& %""#*)),.&(#))*&+,&0"//+17*B&S)(&%+&-$)#())1H"5H-$)#())1*#"+7&,4&,+*)(7+=&47(5)-(A& -"6(&3""#)1&%""#%)(&/+%#7<3+,&7,&0+(&%+#%+&-$)#())1&3++1&67,%+#&0+//+,&*+y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iguur 29: Economisch herstel vertraagt C

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Figuur 32: Goedkope euro stuwt uitvoer

Figuur 33: Bezettingsgraad nog altijd laag

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Figuur 34: Ombuigingen 2015 (prijzen 2010, mld euro’s)

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Mondiale economische uitdagingen voorbij 2011: Een historisch perspectief De recente wereldwijde recessie heeft eens te meer duidelijk gemaakt dat de aangeslagen westerse consumenten, vooral de Amerikaanse en de Britse, niet langer in staat zijn de wereldeconomie vooruit te helpen. Ze zijn immers druk bezig hun zaken financieel op orde te brengen. Na een heroïsche reddingsoperatie verlaten ook overheden het toneel te midden van explosief stijgende staatsschulden en toenemende zorgen in de financiële markten of overheden wel aan hun betalingsverplichtingen kunnen voldoen. Als enige overgebleven zijn de centrale bankiers, die alle beschikbare middelen in de strijd werpen om de economie weer op gang te krijgen. Maar ook zij raken in snel tempo door hun munitie heen. Daarom moeten nieuwe spelers opstaan die als motor van mondiale groei kunnen fungeren. Vorig jaar stelden we reeds dat de enige oplossing voor de kwakkelende wereldeconomie is dat netto besteders minder gaan consumeren en landen die netto sparen meer gaan consumeren (zie Rabobanks Visie op 2010: Globalisering op een kruispunt). Door deze mondiale herbalancering zouden de werkloosheid en de

Auteur

Shahin Kamalodin

staatsschuld in de ontwikkelde economieën kunnen dalen tot aanvaardbare niveaus terwijl tegelijkertijd het deflatierisico afneemt. Ook profiteren de landen die nu per saldo nog sparen dan van een beter houdbare groei die bovendien minder gevoelig is voor schokken van buitenaf. Tot onze teleurstelling –maar niet echt tot onze verrassing– bleek ons pleidooi aan dovemansoren gericht. Politici blijven na elke G20-top ronkende communiqués publiceren zonder herstelmaatregelen te nemen. Van de afgelopen financiële crises weten we dat uitstellen in de hoop terug te keren naar business as usual uiteindelijk zelden haalbaar blijkt. Politici in de schuldenlanden die te maken hebben met oplopende schulden en boze, werkloze kiezers zouden vervolgens hun toevlucht kunnen nemen tot handelsbeperkende maatregelen. En als we iets van de jaren dertig van de vorige eeuw hebben geleerd, is het dat handelsbeperking een pril herstel juist alleen maar verzwakt. Daarom is het moment aangebroken voor krachtige maatregelen. Wij hopen dat politici, vooral die in de overschotlanden, doen wat echt nodig is.

De wereldeconomie wankelt… M"*&,7+(&9"&1),*&*+1+%+,&/47(+1%+,&+;","6+,&"3+#&+1-))#&0++,&"6&04,&5#"*,".+.& 3""#&%+&$+#+1%+;","67+&,))#&/"3+,&/7<&(+&.(+11+,B&C"%#)&%+&L$&77C'MN<<=MO&(+#&.5#)-+& -$)6+,A&/+*",,+,&6)#-(5)#(7<+,&(+&*+1"3+,&7,&%+&=N7<'P9C'Q9&Cc&+,&RWa& b>E8E/c&3""#&/+$7<9+,&3),&%+9+&n(+#4*3++#eH0D5"(0+.+cB&P+1+7%.6)-+#.&17+(+,&97;0& ""-&6++.1+5+,&7,&%+9+&+4="#7+B&S+&IFUI&*7,*&7,&0))#&+;","67.;0+&3""#47(/17-&3),& 6+7& >E8E& 9+1=.& 9"& 3+#& ++,& 3+#-#)557,*& 3),& 0+(& 6",+()7#+& /+1+7%& 3),& %+& a+%+#)1& _+.+#3+&)),&(+&/+3+1+,B& W))#& ("+,& %+& )),$7<97,*+,& 3""#& ++,& )=9$)--+,%+& $+#+1%+;","67+& %47%+17<-+#& $+#%+,&!F#7'"#$%%&'+3)A&#+)17.++#%+,&/+1+7%.6)-+#.&+,&"5(767.(7.;0+&),)17.(+,&97;0& %)(&9+&7+(.&(+&"3+#0)).(&$)#+,&*+$++.(&6+(&0+(&*+3+,&3),&0+(&.+7,&n/#),%&6++.(+#eB& V)13+#$+*+& >E8E& $+#%+,& %+& 3+#$);0(7,*+,& ,++#$))#(.& /7<*+.(+1%B& R,(+#,)(7",)1+& "#*),7.)(7+.&*)3+,&*++,&9",,7*+&5#"*,".+.&6++#&3""#&%+&$+#+1%+;","67+B&S+&.+;#+H ()#7.H*+,+#))1&3),&%+&IFUI&*)=&+,-+1+,&6)),%+,&1)(+#&b7,&.+5(+6/+#c&(#"4$+,.&("+& %)(&0+(&0+#.(+1&.(+#-&)),&6"6+,(46&0)%&3+#1"#+,&p&3++1&.(+#-+#&%),&$)(&%+&"#*),7H .)(7+&++,&)),()1&6)),%+,&*+1+%+,&3""#&6"*+17<-&0)%&*+0"4%+,B&S+&IFUI&)%37.++#%+& 1),%+,&04,&/+947,7*7,*.6))(#+*+1+,&47(&(+&.(+11+,&)1.&%+&*#"+7&3+#%+#&9"4&)=9$)--+,A& ++,&;"651+(+&"66+9$))7B W))#&$))#"6&$+#%&6+,&9"&3+##).(&%""#&%+9+&(+#4*3)1o&M))#&",9+&6+,7,*&$).&%+9+& ,7+(&6++#&%),&,"#6))1&*+1+(&"5&0"+&+;","67+X,&7,&0+(&3+#1+%+,&0+//+,&*+5#+.(++#%& ,)& ++,& +#,.(7*+& =7,),;7X1+& ;#7.7.B& V+1)).& 97<,& %+9+& *+.;07+%+,7.1+..+,& 7,& %+& <4/+1H .(+667,*&"3+#&/7,,+,-"6+,%+&6);#"H+;","67.;0+&*+*+3+,.&(+&$+7,7*&"5&$))#%+& *+.;0)(B

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Teleurstellend mager economisch herstel in 2011 komt niet geheel onverwacht 6. Nederland: wennen aan een lager groeipad 36

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