STRATEGY THE BOTTOM LINE Strategy Update 14 April 2014

Strategy | 10 December 2013 STRATEGY STRATEGY| |THE THEBOTTOM BOTTOMLINE LINE Strategy Update | 10 January 2014 14 April 2014 Strategy Update | 14 April 2014

2014 Year of cup Risks and Opportunities Storm–in a tea

Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst John Rachmat +6221 5296 9542 [email protected]

Left its own, we expect theresults Indonesian grow strongly in 2014 Quickoncount estimates of the of the economy legislativetoelection last week were with in the consumer spending, investment spending badly recoveries received by stock market because (a) PDI-P’s results and cameexports. below However twoand risks – theunder-performance Presidential election, and whether Bank expectation, (b) loom this PDI-P is interpreted to mean Indonesia would continue its efforts to slow down the economy. Jokowi’s chances in the upcoming presidential election had dimmed. The first reason is not realistic, and the second is plainly wrong in our view.

OVERWEIGHT

FIGURE 1. INDONESIAN 2014 EQUITY OUTLOOK IN MANSEK’S VIEW

Bull Case 5,550 Bull Case

5,550 Base Case 4,550 Base Case

4,550

Bear Case 4,000 Bear Case

4,000

3,000

Bull and Base scenarios equally likely expectation. It atranspires –Over-blown assuming Indonesia elects marketnow that some investors expected PDI-P friendly President and Bank Indonesia to win over 30% of the popular vote in does not raise BI rate further (our Bull the legislative election. This is not Case) we expect JCI to end 2014 at 5,550. realistic view. PDI-PJCI won If BI rateinisour raised weYes expect to33.7% close of the popular votes in 1999, but that 2014 at 4,550 (our Base Case). We assess was right after the fall of Soeharto. The the Bull and Base scenarios as equally party won a sympathy vote as the likely with 40% probability each. opposition party during his rule; the Bear Case cannot be ruled out. There situation is different in 2014. remains a chance that Indonesia elects a PDI-P underperformance = Jokowi’s market-unfriendly leader, and at the prospects dimming ? In our this same time Bank Indonesia view tightens interpretation is plainly wrong. A voter monetary liquidity further (our Bear who would Joko Widodo (or Case). In thatvote case for we expect JCI to end Jokowi) might not have voted for PDI-P. 2014 at 4,000. We assess its probability at In 2004 and 2009, the Democrat Party 20%. won just 7% and 20.8% respectively in the legislative election; yet its

Dec-14 Dec-14

JCI Fcast by Mansek JCI Fcast by Mansek

Aug-14 Aug-14

Apr-14 Apr-14

Aug-13

Dec-13 Dec-13

JCI JCI Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas

Aug-13

2,500

Apr-13

2,500

Apr-13

11,800 11,825

Dec-12

11,400

9,388 10,452

Dec-12

12,171 12,189

US$1 = Rp (average)

Aug-12

US$1 = Rp (year end)

Aug-12

7.75

Apr-12

5.5

7.5

Apr-12

8.4

BI Rate at Year End (%)

Dec-11

Inflation (YoY %)

Dec-11

5.6

Sep-11

5.8

Sep-11

4,550

May-11

4,274

May-11

Real GDP (% yoy)

2014F

Jan-11

JCI (year end)

2013F 2013

Jan-11

Key Key Forecasts Forecasts

FIGURE 6,000 1. INDONESIAN 2014 EQUITY OUTLOOK IN MANSEK’S 10-Jan-14 VIEW 4,254.97 6,000 14-Apr-14 5,500 4,864.88 Apr-14 5,500 4,800 5,000 Apr-14 4,800 5,000 4,500 Mar-13 4,500 4,000 4,545 Mar-13 4,000 4,545 Oct-13 Dec-13 3,500 4,000 4,000 Oct-13 Dec-13 3,500 4,000 4,000 3,000

The case for Indonesia in 2014 – the presidential economy nominee Susilo Indonesian shouldBambang benefit Yudhoyono won both presidential from election-induced growth in contest withspending, over 60%a ofnew the popular consumer marketvotes. The key factor is the Vice friendly President, narrowing Current Presidential candidate; we need a figure Account Deficit thanks to rising CPO who can galvanise to price, gradual decline the in oilparliament price, and US support reforms. economic recovery. Consensus 2014 earnings forecasts in generaloutlook. have The real risks are economic moderated, making them more easily Slowing real GDP growth in 1Q14 (to be deliverable announced and in beatable. early May) would hurt 1Q14 earnings results (to are be released by Our top sector picks plantation, end Apr). The early indicators however consumers and poultry. Our Top Picks veer towards the positive. consist of AALI, LSIP, BWPT (riding the CPO upturn), ICBP, KLBF, Focusprice on fundamental value is theLPPF, best RALS andfor CPIN (riding the times. consumer guidance these uncertain We spending burst) the add PWON, CTRSand andSMGR SGRO (riding to Mansek recovery in bothdropping consumer and Top Buy portfolio, AALI, LSIP investment and SMGR. spending).

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Strategy| |1414April April 2014 Strategy 2014

Table of Contents Opportunity to Buy vs the Real Risks .............................................................. 3 The recent correction to the JCI was based on misplaced concerns, and so this presented buying opportunities to investors. Yet finding values amidst a strongly rising stock market is difficult; we introduce a new methodology to do this. We add SGRO, PWON and CTRS to Mansek Top Buy Picks. ............................................ 3

Unrealistic expectation no lasting damage .................................................... 4 The Jakarta Stock Exchange suffered a bout of nervousness after legislative election on 9th April did not result in the expected “landslide” for PDI-P. We argue however that such expectation was wrong from the beginning, and that Jokowi’s chances in the presidential election are not dimmed at all................................... 4

Economy – where the real risks lie .................................................................. 9 A bullish equity performance in 2014 requires BOTH politics and economy to perform. There are clear risks of an economic slow-down, with looming 1Q14 real GDP growth and earnings results to shed some light. Indication from the ground so far however veers towards the positive. ................................................................... 9

Stock Picks : Searching for Value ................................................................... 15 After rising 15.1% YTD to the legislative election day, the JCI fell 3.1% in one day due to disappointing politics. Under such highly volatile market conditions, we introduce an investment methodology that focuses on long-term values. We are adding PWON, CTRS, SGRO to our Top Buy Picks. ............................................................ 15

Sectoral Outlook ............................................................................................. 26 Mansek’s valuation methodology is based on bottom-up analysis but some sectors are well over-represented : banking, plantation, property and just one agricultural stock. These sectors tend to offer the best long term potential at the cheapest valuation available today. ............................................................................................. 26

Appendix 1. EPS Forecast and 12m Roll Fwd PER ........................................ 38 Appendix 2. Mandiri Sekuritas Earnings Guide............................................ 58

Page 2 of 60 Page 2 of 60

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009

Opportunity to Buy vs the Real Risks

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, The Jl. Jend.recent Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, correction to the JCIIndonesia was based Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

on misplaced concerns, and so this presented buying opportunities to investors. Yet finding values amidst a strongly stock market is difficult;masa we introduce a new methodology to tahun do Industri rising pembiayaan telah mengalami pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima this. We add SGRO, PWON and CTRS to Mansek BuyCAGR Picks.21.93%, sehingga pada terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan Top tingkat kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Identifying long term values pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan The Jakarta Composite Index reacted the kredit quick count estimates of the pembiayaan konsumen, sewa(JCI) guna usahabadly dan to kartu mengalami pertumbuhan results of last week’s legislative election, falling 3.1% on the following day after rising by dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 15.1% YTD to the last trading day before the election.

InKinerja this report we pembiayaan argue that the various on heightened political 2008 risks are industri dalam lima concerns tahun terakhir hingga September dapat misplaced, and hence the negative market reaction is likely a storm in a tea cup that dilihat pada Tampilan I. offers better value to investors in Indonesian equities. The critical factor here is a strong Vice Presidential candidate to help Joko Widodo, the market-preferred presidential TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI support PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR candidate, to galvanise parliamentary for reforms. Rp miliar We introduce a new investment methodology to help investors pick stocks based on their long term values, and using this methodology we add Sampoerna Agro3,500 (SGRO), 200,000 Pakuwon Jati (PWON) and Ciputra Surya (CTRS) to Mansek Top Buy Portfolio. We drop 3,000 Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), London Sumatra Plantations (LSIP) and Semen Indonesia 150,000 (SMGR) as they no longer present attractive values after recent stock price rally. 2,500 2,000 its However the real risks lie on Indonesia’s economic outlook and by extension 100,000 corporate profitability outlook. Our Bull Case, projecting a 30% appreciation in1,500 the JCI this year to close the year at 5,550 critically depends on a strengthening economy. Our 1,000 50,000 Base Case projecting a 6.5% appreciation in the JCI foresees instead a slight slip in 500 economic growth to 5.6% this year (vs 5.8% last year). 0 a slow down in real GDP growth is that it would negatively0 impact The problem with corporate earnings growth – except 2005 for a few 2006 sectors that more on exports 2003 also 2004 2007depend Oct-08 than the domesticTotal economy such as the plantation sector. In our opinion it would be Asset Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha difficult to defend a 30% equity value appreciation when profits are falling (or even Anjakthe Piutang Kartu Kredit slowing down). Hence critical dates would be end of April (release of the Q1 2014 earnings results) and early May (publication of the Q1 2014 real GDP growth). Sumber: Bank Indonesia

FIGURE 2. MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat 2014 EPS Indonesia per dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari statistik Bank Stock Price Starting PERdata 2014F Target Ticker Company's Name Changes Growth September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaan14-Apr-14 Stock Price (x) Price Fcast

AISA

perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi 27,750 21,200 30.9% 15.4 57.9% 25,000 sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas BW Plantations 1,315 1,180 11.4% 14.7 64.0% 1,750 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang 31.6% cukup besar13.4 atas perusahaan-perusahaan London Sumatra Plantations (dropped) 2,250 1,710 49.4% 2,200 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2-9.0% menunjukkan16.0 komposisi 9.9% sumber pendanaan Semen Indonesia (dropped) 15,925 17,500 16,600 perusahaan pembiayaan. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food 2,065 2,000 3.3% 15.9 37.1% 2,700

BBTN

Bank Tabungan Negara

AALI BWPT LSIP SMGR

Astra Agro Lestari (dropped)

1,250

1,295

-3.5%

7.4

12.0%

1,500

BJBR

BPD Jawa Barat dan Banten

1,145

1,040

10.1%

7.4

9.4%

1,300

BSDE

Bumi Serpong Damai

1,540

1,710

-9.9%

12.5

-17.5%

2,000

LPCK

Lippo Cikarang

7,650

7,800

-1.9%

9,850

PWON

Pakuwon Jati (addition)

SGRO

Sampoerna Agro (addition)

CTRS

Ciputra Surya (addition)

6.6

36.5%

345

11.1

32.0%

430

1,995

12.0

164.3%

3,000

8.6

27.8%

4,000

2,285

MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO

1,049.7

1,000.0

5.0%

Jakarta Composite Index

4,864.9

4,254.8

14.3%

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

Please disclosure at the back of this report 2 ofimportant Pagesee 16 Please see important disclosure at the back of this report



Unrealistic expectation no lasting damage The Jakarta Stock Exchange suffered a bout of nervousness after legislative election on 9th April did not result in the expected “landslide” for PDI-P. We argue however that such expectation was wrong from the beginning, and that Jokowi’s chances in the presidential election are not dimmed at all. Synching expectation to reality The expectation that PDI-P would win a “landslide” in the legislative election because it had nominated the Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo (better known by his nick-name Jokowi) as its Presidential candidate is never realistic in our opinion. In its entire history, PDI-P won over 30% of the popular vote only once – in the 1999 general election. The political background was ideal for PDI-P then. Soeharto had just fallen off power. PDI-P was the only clear opposition party, and had suffered because of that fact over many years of Soeharto's rule. It had also never been in power at that time – so it had never disappointed the public. As a result the party competed in the 1999 general election under ideal circumstances. Even then it only won 33.7% of the popular votes. 2014 is clearly different from 1999. PDI-P had been the governing party and its Chairman was the country's President during 2001-04; this loss of “governing innocence” in our opinion played a major role in determining its actual performance during the recent legislative election. The party itself only targeted winning 27% of the popular votes (and every competing political party put up targets that were clearly more aspirational than realistic) – see Figure 3. FIGURE 3. PARTIES’ INTERNAL TARGET VS QUICK COUNT RESULTS

PDI-P

27.0

19.2

Golkar

15.0

Gerindra

11.8

Demokrat

9.4

PKB

9.1

PAN

7.0

NasDem

6.7

PPP

6.7

Hanura

5.1

PBB

1.5

PKPI

0.9 0

20.0

15.0

11.6 15.0

7.5

PKS

15.0 20.0 12.0 13.0

Target

8.0

Kompas quick count

3.5 5

30.0

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: Kompas

Where investors can expect a landslide is in the Presidential election, we believe. The recently circulating interpretation that PDI-P's under-performance in the legislative election implies Jokowi's chances in the Presidential election have dimmed is just plain wrong in our opinion. Jokowi brings with him a strong track-record of good governance during his time as Mayor of Solo (2005-12) and Governor of Jakarta (2012 – now). His popularity is clearly distinct from PDI-P's standing with the general public.



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 FIGURE 4. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2009


Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

Megawati Soekarno Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masaPutri/ pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Prabowo terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Subianto 26.8 Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun.

pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan Susilo Muhammad Bambang Jusufkartu Kalla/ kredit mengalami pertumbuhan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan Yudhoyono/ Wiranto dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% Boediono 12.4 60.8

Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat dilihat pada Tampilan I. Source: KPU

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR

Rp miliar There is a precedence for this dichotomy between a political party and its presidential candidate's 200,000 differing popularity, and hence election performace. Susilo Bambang 3,500 Yudhoyono (better known by his nick name SBY), the presidential candidate from Partai 3,000 Demokrat, won the Presidential election in one round in 2009 with a landslide 60.8% of 150,000 the popular vote – vs his rivals Megawati Soekarnoputri (26.8%) and Jusuf Kalla2,500 (12.4%). See Figure 4. 2,000 100,000

1,500

FIGURE 5. LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2009 AND THE RESULTING PARLIAMENTARY CONFIGURATION 50,000 2009 parliament seat 2009 legislative election vote PDIP, 14.0%

PKS, 7.9%

PAN, 6.0%

0

PDIP, 16.8%

2003 PPP, 5.3% Golkar, 14.5% PKB, 5.0% Demokrat, 20.8%

2005

2006

2007

Total Asset

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Anjak Piutang

Golkar, 18.9% Kartu Kredit

500 0

PKS, 10.2%

Oct-08

Sewa PAN,Guna 8.2% Usaha PPP, 6.8%

Gerindra, 4.5%

Sumber: Bank Indonesia Hanura, 3.8%

Salah Others, 16.5% Source: KPU

2004

1,000

PKB, 5.0% Demokrat, 26.4% hubungannya adalah

satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan yang cukup Gerindra, 4.6%erat PBB, 1.8% dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per Hanura, 3.0% September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi sebesar pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya in sebesar Data iniparty mempertegas Yet during11% the dan preceding legislative election 2009, 12.1%. SBY's political (Partai adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yangvote cukup perusahaan-perusahaan Demokrat) only won 20.8% of the popular – not besar too far atas from the predicted PDI-P's pembiayaan in terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan sumber example pendanaan performance this year's legislative election. See Figure 5.komposisi A more extreme can be gleaned from the 2004 presidential election which SBY won (after two rounds of perusahaan pembiayaan. voting) with 61% of the popular votes in the final round. See Figure 6. Yet in the preceding legislative election, Partai Demokrat only won 7% of the popular votes. See Figure 7.



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014

FIGURE 6. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004 Vote in the second round

Vote in the first round H. Wiranto/ Salahudin Wahid 22% Megawati/ Hasyim Muzadi 27%

Amin Rais/ Siswono Yudohusodo 15%

Megawati/ Hasyim Muzadi 39%

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono/ Jusuf Kalla 61%

Hamzah Haz/ Agum Gumelar 3%

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono/ Jusuf Kalla 34%

Source: KPU

So the evidence is clear – presidential candidates stand on their own personal record, and their chances are clearly distinct from the popularity of the political parties supporting them. Therefore if the stock market had tumbled because it needed to synch its unrealistic expectation to life's realities, we consider that a healthy correction that will form a solid basis for further value appreciation down the line.

A more fractious parliament ? The other reason offered to derive a negative conclusion from the recent legislative election is that PDI-P's under-performance will result in a “more fractious” parliament, thus hampering the new president's effectiveness in pushing through difficult reforms. This fear, however, is not supported by the evidence. When we compare SBY's first presidential term (2004-09) to his second (2009-13), we note that he pushed through the difficult-to-pass cuts in fuel subsidy more effectively during his first presidential term (three times, twice in 2005 and once in 2008) than in his second term (once, in 2013 – after prolonged delays as it was originally scheduled for 2012). Did this come about because the 2009-13 parliament was “more fractious” and SBY had less support than in the 2004-09 parliament ? The answer is No. His Partai Demokrat controlled 26.4% seat in the 2009-13 parliament vs just 10% in the 2004-09 parliament. See Figures 5 and 7. One can say that the 2009 parliament was significantly “less fractious” than the 2004 parliament, yet the effect on reforms is the opposite of what the Street seems to assume. FIGURE 7. LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2004 AND THE RESULTING PARLIAMENTARY CONFIGURATION 2004 parliament seat 2004 legislative election vote PKB, 11%

PPP, 8%

Demokrat, 7%

PDIP, 19%

PPP, 11%

Demokrat, 10% PKS, 8%

PKB, 9%

PAN, 9%

PKS, 7% PAN, 6% Golkar, 22% Others (14 Partai), 13%

PBB, 3% PBR, 2%

PBB, 2% PBR, 2%

PDIP, 20%

PDS, 2% Golkar, 23%

Others (14 Partai), 2%

PDS, 2%

Source: KPU

Page 6 of 60


Page 6 of 60


Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Another fact to show the fallacy of this “fractious parliament” argument is the result of

the 1999 Ageneral As we mentioned earlier, this was the year when PDI-P won TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas subsidiary elections. of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk a Subroto resultKav. it 36 became the party with the largest number Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, big. Jl. Jend.As Gatot - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Industri Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt +62 21 Indonesia’s 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) (33.1%). If Research), we measure parliamentary fractiousness

of parliamentary seats by how large the seat allocation taken by the most dominant party (or parties) is, then the 1999 parliament is Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun the least fractious of all the three post-Soeharto parliaments that Indonesia had seen. terakhir, jumlah bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR sehingga pada Yet the twodimana presidents thataset governed during this 1999-2004 period21.93%, were known either 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalamtenure) hal pembiayaan dikucurkan, forkuartal endlessIIIbickering with the parliament (Gus Dur’s or for lack ofyang reforms action pembiayaantenure). anjak Hence piutangwetidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan (Megawati’s view the theory that PDI-P’s failing to win by a landslide inpembiayaan the recent legislative election somehow missed opportunity as not supported by konsumen, sewa isguna usaha adan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan history. dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

FIGURE 8. LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 1999 AND THE RESULTING PARLIAMENTARY Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalamCONFIGURATION lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat 1999 election vote dilihat pada Tampilan I. 1999 parliament seat PKB, 12.6%

PKB, 11.0%


PPP, 10.7%

PPP, 12.6%

Rp miliar Golkar, 22.4%

PAN, 7.1%

PBB, 1.9%

200,000

PK, 1.4%

PAN, 7.4%

Golkar, 26.0%

PBB, 2.8% 3,500

PKP, 1.0%

PK, 1.5% 3,000

150,000 PNU, 0.6%

PKP, 0.9%

2,500

PNU, 1.1% Others (39 100,000 partai), 8.4%

PDIP, 33.7%

50,000

Source: KPU

2,000

PDIP, 33.1%

Others (39 1,500 partai), 3.7%

1,000 500

0

0

In short, the theory that Jokowi 2004 will have 2005 a harder 2006 time pushing 2003 2007 through Oct-08reforms if PDIP's seat allocation in the new parliament is substantially less than expected has no basis Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha in reality. What is Total truly Asset critical would be Pembiayaan Jokowi's running mate, the Vice Presidential candidate. This person will need to have ability to galvanise support in the Anjak Piutang Kartuthe Kredit parliament beyond PDI-P's own direct influence. NoSumber: doubtBank the Indonesia inter-party negotiation over the coming months will bring some degree of uncertainty to the stock market, but we are confident pragmatism will prevail in the Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat end. dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan.




FIGURE 9. ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK IN THE US AND EUROPE

UK

2.7 2.7

2013

USA

1.9

2014F 1.3 1.1

Rusia 0.4

Germany

0.2

France

1.9 1.0

-0.3

Ireland Spain

-1.2

Portugal

-1.3

2.0 0.9 1.1

-1.9

Italy Greece

2.7

0.5

-3.9

0.1

Source: Bloomberg

FIGURE 10. ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK IN ASIA PACIFIC

China Philippines

6.5

7.7 7.4 7.2

5.8 5.4

Indonesia

4.7 5.1 4.6 4.7

Malaysia India 4.0 3.8

Singapore 3.0

South …

2013

3.6

2.9 3.0

Thailand 2.1

Taiwan

2014F

3.2

1.5 1.4

Japan Source: Bloomberg

FIGURE 11. ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK IN LATIN AMERICA

4.1 3.9

Chile

Argentina*

4.0 0.0 2.3

Brasil

Mexico

1.9 *2013 forecast

1.1 3.2 2013

2014F

Source: Bloomberg




Economy – where the real risks lie


Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, A Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. performance 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190,in Indonesia bullish equity 2014 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

requires BOTH politics and economy to perform. There are clear risks of an economic slow-down, with looming 1Q14 real GDP growth andtelah earnings resultsmasa to shed some light. Indication Industri pembiayaan mengalami pertumbuhan pesat sepanjangfrom lima the tahun ground so dimana far however thedengan positive. terakhir, jumlahveers aset towards bertumbuh tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Why economic outlook is key pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan Whereas the perception heightened political Indonesia, in our pertumbuhan opinion, is pembiayaan konsumen, ofsewa guna usaha dan risks kartuin kredit mengalami storm in a tea cup, the real risks lie in Indonesia's economic outlook. dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% Some investors find this assertion surprising. In their view as long as Indonesia's economy a rate that isdalam only marginally than last year's 5.8% (Mansek's Kinerja grows industribypembiayaan lima tahun slower terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat base case forecast a 5.6% real GDP growth this year), then the stock market should be dilihat pada Tampilan I. “fine”. The reasons offered for this view are two-fold : (a) the average economic growth rate TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR over the 2001-13 period is 5.45%, and hence a 5.6% growth this year would constitute Rp miliar performance, and (b) at 5.6% growth rate Indonesia's economy an “above average” would be the second strongest growing economy after China this year. See Figures 200,000 3,500 9, 10 and 11. 3,000

This all boils150,000 down to what investors mean by a “fine” performance by the stock market. 2,500 In our analysis a 5.6% economic growth rate, essentially a slight slip vs last year's 2,000 or performance, would equate to Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) valuation of 4,550 100,000 roughly 6.5% appreciation from 2013's close. If that is what a “fine” performance 1,500 is meant by investors, then that may indeed what we get in the end. 50,000

1,000

However Mansek's bull case, based on an assumption of 6% real GDP growth this 500 year (i.e. a clear accelaration in economic growth vs last year), would equate to a JCI 0 is that valuation of 5,5500 or roughly 30% appreciation from 2013's close. The irony then some investors believe2003 the JCI can this lofty 2006 valuation2007 level even with a slight slip 2004reach 2005 Oct-08 in the economic growth this year, thanks to the “Jokowi effect”. Total Asset Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha

Such expectation hasPiutang no basis in reality our view Anjak Kartuin Kredit If nothing else, the much-hyped “Jokowi effect” at the recent legislative election had Sumber: Bank Indonesia turned out to be tepid. If it can disappoint so badly on the political front, it can also disappoint badly on the capital markets front. Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat More to the point, however, we believe stock market valuation is driven by expectation lembaga –perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari datais statistik Indonesia ofdengan future changes NOT by current ranking. If an economy expectedBank to weaken, thenper September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanits stock market value is likely to weaken too and conversely if an economy is expected darivalue. dana The perbankan, disusul oleh toperusahaan strengthen,pembiayaan so would itsbersumber stock market exception would bependanaan economiesobligasi that aresebesar far more on international than12.1%. domestic – 11% dependent dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnyatrade sebesar Data consumption ini mempertegas Singapore, for example – in which case the global economic outlook probably plays a adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan larger role on stock market values than their own economic prospects. pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan.




7.9 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.4

6.6

8

11.4 12.1 10.3 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.9

10

9.7

12

8.2

14

7.6

16

10.4 9.6 9.1 9.5 11.2 10.1 9.8 9.9 12.4 13.6 12.2 12.5 14 14.8 14.4 13.6 11.3 10.8 9.7

FIGURE 12. CHINA REAL GDP GROWTH (% YOY)

6 4 2

Mar‐04 Jun‐04 Sep‐04 Dec‐04 Mar‐05 Jun‐05 Sep‐05 Dec‐05 Mar‐06 Jun‐06 Sep‐06 Dec‐06 Mar‐07 Jun‐07 Sep‐07 Dec‐07 Mar‐08 Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐09 Jun‐09 Sep‐09 Dec‐09 Mar‐10 Jun‐10 Sep‐10 Dec‐10 Mar‐11 Jun‐11 Sep‐11 Dec‐11 Mar‐12 Jun‐12 Sep‐12 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13 Mar‐14F

0

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg

A good illustration of this theme is China, reputedly the world's manufacturing centre. China's economic growth rates had been well above any other countries over the past two decades or so, but they peaked in Q2 2007 at 14.8%. Since then it has been declining almost consistently, except for a short upward blip in 2010. See Figure 12. Its stock market valuation reflect this development almost perfectly. Taking the CSI 300 index as a proxy for China's stock market value, it peaked in mid 2007 but has since then been consistently declining – except for a brief period during H1 2009 that may well reflect accurate expectation of that short economic recovery in 2010. See Figure 13. FIGURE 13. CSI 300 INDEX (GREEN = RISING GDP, PINK = FALLING GDP GROWTH) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Jan-05

Jul-04

Jan-04

0

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Yet throughout all these periods, China's economic growth continued to be No 1 in the world. That obviously did not stop its stock market valuation from crashing, and to TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk assume a long-term down trend. Hence we assert that to say that because Indonesia's Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia economic growth would bePembiayaan No(Debt 2 inSales) the world therefore its stock market value should Multifinance General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 see strong appreciation is a misreading of what drives valuation. It is expectation of Industrithat pembiayaan telah mengalami CHANGE matters, not current ranking.masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Improving Current Account outlook kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Sopembiayaan what is Indonesia's economic outlook for 2014 pertumbuhan ? anjak piutang tidak mengalami yang berarti, sedangkan pembiayaan guna usaha dan prospects kartu kredit pertumbuhan There are two konsumen, elements in sewa Indonesia's economic thatmengalami concern investors the most – itstingkat CurrentCAGR Account Balance and24.41%, its economic growth. dengan masing-masing 25.77% dan 12.25% On the Current Account front, we believe the prognosis is favourable. Indonesia's trade Kinerjahas industri dalam tahunand, terakhir September dapat balance turnedpembiayaan for the better fromlima Oct 2013 after ahingga one-month blip in2008 January (caused by timing effect of the raw mineral ore ban and adverse weather effect on oil dilihat pada Tampilan I. and gas production), it has returned to surplus in Feb 2014. See Figure 14. Our economists believe that the March forex reserves data indicate another surplus Trade TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR Balance for Mar 2014, though perhaps not as large as the Feb number. See their report Rp miliar “Inflation eased while trade back to surplus” (dated 1st Apr 2014) and “FX reserves to remain stable” (dated 3rd Apr 2014). 200,000 3,500 3,000

FIGURE 14. INDONESIA’S TRADE BALANCE 150,000 3

2,500 2,0002

Trade balance (US$ bn)

100,000

1,500 1 1,000

2

50,000 1

500 0

0

0

2003

(1) (2)

2004

2005

2006

2007

Total Asset

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Anjak Piutang

Kartu Kredit

Oct-08 Sewa Guna Usaha

0 -1 -2

Sumber: Bank Indonesia the biggest deficit in history

(3)

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

-3

Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak pendanaan perusahaanOil and gas Non oil and gas 78% sumber Balance (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi Source: CEIC sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas We expect the current account deficit to reach 2.7% of GDP in 2014 until this moment. adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan The likelihood, however, has somewhat tilted to be lower than anticipated. This is pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan because of average trade surplus inTampilan the first two months of 2014 at around US$150mn. perusahaan pembiayaan. For information, our FY14 CAD forecast of 2.7% of GDP assumes average trade deficit of US$200mn/month. At this current level, we see that CAD may come at around 2.3% of GDP in 1Q14, lower than our FY14 CAD estimate. Trade condition could come under pressure along 2Q14 as a consequence of the fasting and religious festive periods. Nevertheless, we think trade trend would not deviate that much especially considering the impact of the ban of mineral ore export has significantly diminish. Thus, if the trade number at least remains in the low surplus territory until the end of 2014, the overall current account deficit could reach between 2.2% - 2.5% of GDP for FY 2014.




FIGURE 15. INDONESIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

10,000

5.0%

8,000

4.0%

6,000

3.0%

4,000

2.0%

2,000

1.0% 0.0%

(2,000)

-1.0%

(4,000)

-2.0% -3.0%

(6,000)

Jun-13

Dec-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

-5.0%

Dec-06

Dec-05

Jun-05

Dec-04

(10,000)

-4.0%

Current account to GDP (%, RHS)

Jun-06

(8,000)

Current account (US$mn, LHS)

Source: CEIC

More risks on the economic growth outlook However the economic growth outlook is much murkier. Last month Bank Indonesia cut its 2014 economic growth forecasts (from the 5.8 to 6.2% range to 5.5 to 5.9%) , citing weaker than expected consumer spending. This is hard to digest, frankly, because 2014 is an election year and election campaigns tend to result in higher consumer spending. Yet when we talk to listed retailers, indication of Q1 2014 same store growth and overall retail revenue growth are positive. Mitra Adi Perkasa (MAPI), Matahari Putra Prima (MPPA), Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA) and Aces Hardware (ACES) all indicate that their Q1 2014 revenue growth are in line or even somewhat better than budgeted. MPPA's director Mr Richard Setiadi said to Jakarta Post (“MPPA looks outside Java for expansion”, 11 Apr 2014) that MPPA is upbeat it will deliver a stronger growth this year, adding that the firm saw an 8% increase in its same store growth in Q1 2014. ACES disclosed that its same store growth in Jan and Feb 2014 reached 6.2%, better than the management 5% SSG target for Full Year 2014. In similar vein RALS same store growth of 17.1%, 1% and 4.8% yoy in Jan, Feb and Mar this year clearly indicate healthy consumer spending. (Its Jan 2014 growth number was exceptionally good due to a base-year effect as its Jan 2013 sales was badly hit by heavy flooding at the time.) RALS management assert that its Q1 2014 performance is on track to deliver its same store growth target of 7.3% this year. MAPI and ERAA have not released their 1Q14 sales data as yet, but they indicate that revenue growth in that quarter has been satisfactory. So it appears that the evidence on consumer spending remain mixed for now. It does imply that the Q1 2014 earnings results and real GDP growth data, to be released by end of Apr and early May 2014 respectively, constitute a risk to stock market valuation due to these mixed signals, but on the whole we veer towards the positive side. By contrast we believe we are in firmer ground for projecting a bullish growth in investment spending. Looking at the main differences in the economic projection between our Bull and Base scenarios, the biggest difference indeed lies in this “Gross Fixed Capital Formation” (GFCF) element of the real GDP growth (8% in the Bull Case vs 3.5% in the Base Case, as compared to the 4.7% yoy growth delivered in 2013). See Figure 16. The Bull Case also takes a more positive outlook on consumer spending than the Base case (5.5% vs 5.1%, as compared to the 5.3% yoy growth delivered in 2013) but here the gap is much less.



Strategy | 14 14 April April 2014 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009

FIGURE 16. 2014 MARKET OUTLOOK IN MANDIRI SEKURITAS’ VIEW FIGURE 16. 2014 MARKET OUTLOOK IN MANDIRI SEKURITAS’ VIEW

Bull Case Base Case Bear Case Bull2014F Case Base2014F Case Bear2014F Case 2014F 2014F 2014F 5,550 4,550 4,000 th Plaza - 38, Jakarta 12190, JCI Target / of Historical at YearMandiri End 28 Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 4,317 4,274Indonesia 5,550 4,550 4,000 Probability occurrence 40% 40% 20% Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) Probability of occurrence 40% 20% Indonesia’s next President Candidate A Candidate A40% or B Candidate C Indonesia’s next President Candidate A Candidate A or B Candidate C BI Rate at Year End (%) 5.75 7.5 7.0 7.75 8.5 Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat7.75 sepanjang lima tahun BI Rate at Growth Year End(%) (%) 5.75 7.5 7.0 8.5 Real GDP 6.23 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.3 aset bertumbuh dengan5.5 sehingga pada Real GDP Growth (%) Expenditures Growth (%) terakhir, dimana jumlah 6.23 5.8 6.0tingkat CAGR 21.93%, 5.6 5.3 Private Consumption 5.28 5.3 5.1 4.9 Private Consumption Expenditures Growth (%) kuartal III 2008 1.25 5.28 5.3 5.5 5.1 4.9 Government Expenditure Growth (%) 4.9 3.0 4.0 4.4 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Government Expenditure Growth (%) (%) 1.25 4.9 3.0 4.0 4.4 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth 9.81 4.7 8.0 3.5 4.4 pembiayaan anjak9.81 piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang3.5 berarti, sedangkan Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (%) 4.7 8.0 4.4 Exports Growth (%) 2.01 5.3 4.0 3.0 5.4 Exports Growth 2.01 5.3 4.0 3.0 5.4 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa 1.2 guna usaha dan 3.0 kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan Imports Growth (%) (%) 6.65 1.0 3.4 Imports (%)at Year End (Rp/USD) 6.65 masing-masing 1.2 3.0 dan 12.25% 1.0 3.4 USD IDRGrowth Exch Rate 9,793 12,171 11,400 13,500 dengan tingkat CAGR 24.41%, 10,500 25.77% USD IDR Exch at Year End (Rp/USD) 9,793 12,171 10,500 11,400 13,500 Source: CEIC,Rate Mandiri Sekuritas 2012 2013 TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of2012 PT Bank Mandiri 2013 (Persero) Tbk JCI Target / Historical at Year End 4,317 4,274

Source: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas

The main industri reason for the Base dalam Case' bearishness for investment in Kinerja pembiayaan lima tahun terakhir hingga spending Septemberoutlook 2008 dapat The main reason for thecreated Base Case' bearishness for investment spending outlook in 2014 is the uncertainty by upcoming elections. This can be clearly seen from dilihat pada Tampilan I. 2014 is the uncertainty created by upcoming elections. This can be clearly seen from the fact that investment spending had skidded down from a 9.8% yoy growth in 2012 thejust fact4.7% thatgrowth investment spending had skidded down from a 9.8% yoy growth in 2012 to in 2013. 1. KINERJA toTAMPILAN just 4.7% growth in 2013.INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR However The Bottom Line believes that there is nothing surprising in this Rp miliar However The Bottomthe Line is previous nothing election surprising this development – exactly samebelieves patternsthat werethere seen in yearsin1999, development – exactly the same patterns were seen in previous election years 1999, 200,000 3,500 but 2004 and 2009. Gross Fixed Capital Formation were always weak, or started strong 2004 2009. Gross Fixed Capital Formation were leading always weak, started strong but then and weakened precipitously during the quarters to theorelection quarter(s). 3,000 then weakened precipitously during the quarters leading to the election quarter(s). Once Indonesia elected a market-friendly leader, however, it recovered strongly. See 150,000 2,500 See Once elected FiguresIndonesia 17, 18 and 19. a market-friendly leader, however, it recovered strongly. Figures 17, 18 and 19. 2,000 1,000 500

President election, Jul09

2005

2006

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

0


Dec-10 Dec-10

Sep-10 Sep-10

Jun-10 Jun-10

Mar-10 Mar-10

Dec-09 Dec-09

Sep-09 Sep-09

Jun-09 Jun-09

Mar-09 Mar-09

Source: CEIC

Dec-08 Dec-08

Kartu Kredit Sep-08 Sep-08

Sumber: Bank Indonesia

1,500

Legislative election, Apr09 Legislative election,election, Apr09 Jul09 President

Jun-08 Jun-08

Dec-00 Dec-00

16 14 50,000 14 12 12 10 10 0 8 8 2003 62004 6 Total Asset 4 4 2 Anjak Piutang 2 0 0

Sep-00 Sep-00

Jun-00 Jun-00

Mar-00 Mar-00

Dec-99 Dec-99

Salah satu karakteristik dari industri Source: CEIC pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per FIGURE 19. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2004 September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanFIGURE 19. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2004 perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi 20 20 President election, & Sep04 sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data Jul04 ini mempertegas 18 President election, Jul04 & Sep04 18 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 16 16 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 14 Legislative election 14 12 perusahaan pembiayaan. Legislative election -Apr04

Please disclosure at at the the back back of of this this report report 2 ofimportant Pagesee 16 Please see important disclosure Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Dec-05 Dec-05

Sep-05 Sep-05

Jun-05 Jun-05

Mar-05 Mar-05

Dec-04 Dec-04

Sep-04 Sep-04

Jun-04 Jun-04

Mar-04 Mar-04

Dec-03 Dec-03

Source: CEIC Source: CEIC

Sep-03 Sep-03

-Apr04

Jun-03 Jun-03

12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2

Mar-03 Mar-03

Sep-99 Sep-99

Jun-99 Jun-99

Mar-99 Mar-99

Dec-98 Dec-98

Sep-98 Sep-98

Source: CEIC Source: CEIC

Jun-98 Jun-98

Legislative election, Jun99 Legislative election, Jun99

Mar-98 Mar-98

30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 -50

FIGURE 18. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2009 FIGURE 18. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2009 16

100,000

Mar-08 Mar-08

FIGURE 17. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 1999 FIGURE 17. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 1999 30

Page 13 Page 13 of of 60 60 Page 13 of 60

Strategy| |1414April April 2014 Strategy 2014 Does this mean that investment spending will have to wait until the Presidential elections in July (or even September if it goes on to a second round) before recovering ? We believe it is already starting to recover now, as the announcement that Jokowi will run for the presidency in itself has eliminated much of the political uncertainty. In case the readers would remonstrate that the recent stock market sharp dip indicates that the capital markets are not so sure on this point, we would reiterate again our view that this dip is the result of unrealistic expectation to start with, and that it will soon prove to be a storm in a tea cup. FIGURE 20. LOAN GROWTH : NATIONAL LOAN GROWTH RATE VS INVESTMENT LOAN GROWTH RATE (MONTHLY) National (all banking) loan growth National investment loan growth (% y-y) 30

Industry loans growth

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

15

Dec-11

20

Jun-11

25

Dec-10

(% y-y) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Investments growth

Source: Bank Indonesia

We can also glean a more solid evidence for this from Bank Indonesia's national statistics for loan growth. Total loan growth has started to decline since late 2011 and recent numbers suggest that this trend will continue. Investment loan growth mimicked this national total loan performance until mid 2013 (supporting the sharp slow down in Gross Fixed Capital Formation during 2013), but since then has shown a strong recovery – including the Jan 2014 data. The Feb data should be released some weeks from this report's publication but we are confident it will confirm this trend. See Figure 20.



Strategy 14 April April 2014 2014 Strategy || 14

Stock Picks : Searching for Value

ASDF | 17 Februari 2009

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bankto Mandiri Tbk After rising 15.1% YTD the(Persero) legislative election day, the JCI fell 3.1% in one day Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, due Jl. Jend. to Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, politics. Jakarta 12190,Under Indonesia such disappointing Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

highly volatile market conditions, we introduce an investment methodology that focuses on long-term values. We Industri telahSGRO mengalami pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun are addingpembiayaan PWON, CTRS, to our masa Top Buy Picks. terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Back to basics kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Inpembiayaan the midst of anjak all these volatilities, recommend investors to focus the long-term piutang tidakwemengalami pertumbuhan yang on berarti, sedangkan fundamentals of our investments. The theory is straight forward – we are seeking those pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan companies whose long term outlook are strong (and hence giving us a solid basis for dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

expecting a long term appreciation in their value), but for some short-term reasons are facing pressures on their stock price today. Provided we can satisfy ourselves that those Kinerja are industri pembiayaan dalamthen limawetahun hingga September 2008 will dapat concerns short-term in nature, knowterakhir that their strong fundamentals dilihat pada Tampilan I. in the long term. bring outsized appreciation How do we identify strong long-term fundamentals ?


The Discounted Cash Flows methodology remains the most robust in our opinion, but this methodRp is miliar difficult to standardize across sectors, and more difficult still across stockbrokers to arrive at a consensus number. 200,000 3,500 Hence we decide to use the third-year forecast of price-to-earnings ratio to help3,000 identify these long term fundamentals. Our reasons : 150,000 2,500

1.

PER prove to be the most effective valuation tools in Indonesia. We made a 2,000 study of the effectiveness of several popular valuation tools (PER, PEG, Price to Book, Stock 100,000 1,500 Beta, Stock Price Variance, Dividend Yield) to identify winners and losers (in a one1,000 is year time50,000 frame) in the Indonesian stock market. To our surprise the conclusion that PER is the only tool that works well to identify both potential winners 500 and losers; Price to Book works well to identify potential losers, but not potential 0 report winners. The0study covers the five-year period 2007-11. See The Bottom Line th dated 25 March 2013: to switch to the defensive. 2003 Time 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08

TotalinAsset Sewaview Guna about Usaha the Year 3 forecasts many cases arePembiayaan reflectionKonsumen of the analysts’ company’s long term outlook. Specific industry or company events projected in Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit Year 3 generally are far fewer than Year 1 or Year 2 forecasts – hence these long term consideration take a weightier share in forming those Year 3 forecasts. Sumber: Bank Indonesia Naturally if there are Year 5 (or better still, Year 10) forecasts those might work even better, but in practical terms very few analysts make projection beyond Year 3 at Salah karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat the satu moment. dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per So we take the Year 3 EPS forecasts of Mansek analysts to form the basis of this search September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanfor value. perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi Next we 11% need dan a Price-to-Earnings reflect12.1%. a company’s term sebesar pinjaman-pinjamanRatio lainnyathat sebesar Data ini long mempertegas fundamentals. We use a 5-year average of the company’s 12-month rolling forward PER. adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Our reasons: pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 1. perusahaan 12-monthpembiayaan. rolling forward PER represents an “idealized” price-to-earnings ratio for investors. In practical terms investors just ask for this year’s and next year’s PER because they are readily available whereas a 12-month rolling forward PER takes a bit more effort to calculate – however the latter encapsulates the valuation data that most investors prefer.

2.

2.

The 5-year average is chosen not because 5 years happen to be a nice whole number, but because they represent a full boom-and-bust cycle. Looking at the Jakarta Composite Index over the last decade or so, it so happens that the Dec 2003 – Dec 2008 period represents one full cycle of boom and bust index movement, as does the Dec 2008 – Dec 2013 period. See Figure 21. We choose the Dec 2008 – Dec 2013 period as, being more recent, we hope it has more relevance to today’s valuation than the earlier boom and bust cycle. (Readers would have to forgive the fact that in an emerging stock market, the uptrend tends to last far longer than the

disclosure at the back of this report Please 2 ofimportant Pagesee 16

Page 15 of 60

Strategy| |1414April April 2014 Strategy 2014 down trend. Hence while what we call one full cycle of boom and bust does not imply an equal period of uptrend and down trend.) FIGURE 21. RECENT 5-YEAR BOOM AND BUST CYCLE IN INDONESIAN EQUITIES

6,000

one boom & bust cycle

one boom & bust cycle

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Jun-10

Dec-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Jun-08

Dec-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Dec-06

Jun-06

Dec-05

Jun-05

Dec-04

Jun-04

Dec-03

0

Source: Bloomberg

3.

A 5-year average 12-month rolling forward PER also has a built-in freedom from bias of the current market trend. In a bull market, PER multiples generally expand. In a bear market by contrast, PER multiples generally contract. By using a statistic that average out these market sentiments, we aim to discover the firm’s “normal” range of valuation and thus free our conclusions from the need to assume an uptrending- or a downtrending-market.

We then use these two statistics to derive our projected Year 3 stock price : Year 3 EPS forecast x 5-year Average PER = Year 3 projected Stock Price To bring this future value to its present value, we discount this Year 3 projected Stock Price using some measure of appropriate discount rate. The statistic we choose to do this is the benchmark 3-year government bond yields. It is fair to state, we believe, that this represents the market’s view of a risk-free interest rate over a 3-year time period. Using this discount rate, we derive the present value of that company’s “long term” valuation. We then compare this PV of its long term value to its current stock price. We are most interested in cases where the long term value is “clearly” undervalued – we’d suggest 30% undervaluation or more. We do not add any risk premium to this risk-free interest rate, as would be commonly done in a Discounted Cash Flows analysis, because it will open a long-winded and unproductive debate about what the appropriate equity risk premium should be in our opinion. Our method of reflecting the added equity risks is by demanding a certain minimum under-valuation (30% in this case) which to us is a more practical yardstick than debating equity risk premium. Figure 22 presents this long-term vs current value screen of all the companies in Mansek Universe today.




FIGURE 22. NEW METHODOLOGY TO IDENTIFY LONG TERM VALUES (BASED ON CLOSING PRICES AT 14 APR 2014) Upside /

Current

PV of F'cast

F'cast Stock Price in Y3

Company'sINDUSTRI Name TINJAUAN Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (Downside) Stock Price Stk Price in Y3

JCI Code LPCK MYOR

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta Lippo Cikarang -57.0% 7,65012190, Indonesia3,291 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

Mayora Indah

ADHI

Adhi Karya

KLBF

Kalbe Farma

WIKA

Wijaya Karya

LPPF

Matahari Department Store

CPIN

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia

MAIN

Malindo Feedmill

RALS

Ramayana Lestari Sentosa

TELE

Tiphone Mobile Indonesia

ICBP

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur

JPFA

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

JSMR

Jasa Marga

PTPP

Pembangunan Perumahan

ACES

Ace Hardware Indonesia

SMGR

Semen Indonesia

TLKM

Telekomunikasi Indonesia

UNTR

United Tractors

-51.3%

29,625

14,424

5-year Avg PER

Current PER

4,073

3.5

6.4

17,850

15.4

30.2

-34.6% 2,975mengalami1,946 2,409 pesat sepanjang 6.9 12.7 tahun Industri pembiayaan telah masa pertumbuhan lima -33.9% 1,520 1,004 1,243 18.7 30.1 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada -33.8% 2,265 1,500 1,857 11.9 19.7 kuartal III-32.5% 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam 12,438 hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 14,900 10,051 14.2 25.1 pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan -32.4% 4,215 2,850 3,527 13.6 21.9 pembiayaan konsumen,3,370 sewa guna usaha kredit mengalami pertumbuhan -31.0% 2,326 dan kartu 2,879 8.1 14.3 -24.5%CAGR masing-masing 1,310 989 18.8 dengan tingkat 24.41%, 25.77% 1,223 dan 12.25% 16.1 -23.5%

805

-23.4% industri

10,000 pembiayaan

Kinerja -22.8% dilihat pada Tampilan I.

1,430

616

dalam

7,658tahun lima 1,104

763 9,477hingga terakhir 1,366

9.6 19.4 September 10.8

11.6 24.6 dapat 2008 15.6

-21.1%

6,025

4,755

5,885

18.4

25.3

-20.4%

1,775

1,413

1,749

11.9

15.8

-18.9% Rp miliar

15,925

12,922

15,991

13.3

15.4

200,000 -18.7%

2,340

1,903

2,355

13.3

21,200

17,243

21,338

13.5

3,500 15.6

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA785 INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR -20.1% 627 776 17.3 24.4 -18.7%

14.7

UNVR

Unilever Indonesia

-17.3%

30,750

25,416

31,453

30.1

36.8 3,000

INTP

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa

150,000 -16.0%

22,950

19,289

23,870

14.1

PGAS

Perusahaan Gas Negara

-15.7%

5,325

4,491

5,557

12.0

15.0 2,500

ASII

Astra International

7,700

6,510

8,057

12.4

2,000 14.4

LSIP

PP London Sumatra Indonesia

-15.4% 100,000

-11.0%

2,250

2,003

2,479

12.2

1,500 12.4

WTON

Wijaya Karya Beton

-9.0%

765

696

861

17.0

TBIG

Tower Bersama Infrastructure

-8.5%

6,050

5,535

6,850

18.4

17.3 1,000

GGRM

Gudang Garam

-7.0%

49,600

46,136

57,094

17.3

BBCA

Bank Central Asia

-6.0% 0

11,250

10,575

13,086

14.9

SMCB

Holcim Indonesia

-5.5%

BBRI

Bank Rakyat Indonesia

-3.5%

AALI

Astra Agro Lestari

-3.1%

BBNI

Bank Negara Indonesia

-1.8%

ASRI

Alam Sutera Realty

-1.0%

INDF

Indofood Sukses Makmur

BJTM

BPD Jawa Timur

JRPT

Jaya Real Property

MAPI

Mitra Adiperkasa

EXCL

XL Axiata

AISA

Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food

SMRA

Summarecon Agung

ITMG

Indo Tambangraya Megah

WIIM

Wismilak Inti Makmur

MDLN

Modernland Realty

50,000

20032,800 2004 9,775

Total Asset

27,750

Anjak Piutang 4,950

Sumber: Bank Indonesia -1.0% 3.3%

2,646 2005 9,435

2006 3,2752007 11,676

Pembiayaan Konsumen

15.7 Oct-08

13.4

18.8

500

18.8

0 16.7 16.1

8.6

10.0

14.9

14.5 9.4

Sewa Guna Usaha

26,877

33,261

Kartu Kredit 4,860

6,014

9.0

555

549

680

9.0

7.0

7,225

7,153

8,851

13.8

14.5

610

6.7

477

satu 3.3% karakteristik 850 dari

493 878 pembiayaan

1,086 hubungannya 12.2 adalah

6.9 14.7 cukup

Salah industri yang erat 4.1% 5,950 6,195 7,667 17.2 20.5 dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per 5.6% 4,920 5,196 6,430 22.7 40.4 September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaan5.6% 2,065 2,182 2,700 9.6 14.5 perusahaan9.0% pembiayaan 1,070 bersumber dari dana perbankan, pendanaan12.8 obligasi 1,166 1,443disusul oleh 14.7 sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas 9.0% 25,325 27,617 34,176 12.5 10.3 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang 11.3% 705 785 cukup besar 971 atas perusahaan-perusahaan 11.5 10.2 12.0% 453 507 2 menunjukkan 628 komposisi 14.9 3.8 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan sumber pendanaan 12.6% 3,810 4,288 5,307 18.6 28.7 perusahaan pembiayaan.

ISAT

Indosat

BSDE

Bumi Serpong Damai

17.2%

1,540

1,806

2,234

13.3

11.9

WSKT

Waskita Karya

17.4%

715

839

1,039

15.7

15.9

BTPN

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional

17.7%

4,100

4,826

5,972

9.2

9.2

CTRS

Ciputra Surya

18.2%

2,285

2,702

3,344

9.6

7.9

IMAS

Indomobil Sukses Internasional

25.2%

4,910

6,147

7,607

14.9

13.6

TAXI

Express Transindo

29.7%

1,350

1,751

2,166

19.0

17.4

APLN

Agung Podomoro Land

30.8%

269

352

436

8.4

5.8

INCO

Vale Indonesia

36.3%

3,480

4,745

5,872

28.2

32.8

BJBR

BPD Jawa Barat Dan Banten

36.7%

1,145

1,565

1,937

9.0

7.1

HEXA

Hexindo Adiperkasa

39.1%

3,930

5,466

6,764

9.1

11.0

RANC

Supra Boga Lestari

40.0%

645

903

1,117

29.8

19.5

ANTM

Aneka Tambang

43.3%

1,125

1,612

1,994

23.8

48.5

Please disclosure at at the the back back of of this this report report 2 ofimportant Pagesee 16 Please see important disclosure

Page 17 Page 17 of of 60 60


JCI Code

Company's Name

Upside / (Downside)

Current Stock Price

PV of F'cast Stk Price in Y3

F'cast Stock Price in Y3

5-year Avg PER

Current PER

ERAA

Erajaya Swasembada

43.9%

1,335

1,921

2,377

14.9

9.5

BWPT

BW Plantation

45.2%

1,315

1,909

2,363

16.3

12.7

PTBA

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam

52.0%

9,750

14,819

18,339

14.9

9.6

BBTN


55.2%

1,250

1,940

2,401

10.1

7.1

ADRO

Adaro Energy

59.2%

1,010

1,607

1,989

15.4

11.3

BDMN

Bank Danamon Indonesia

59.5%

4,550

7,257

8,980

13.1

9.4

CTRA

Ciputra Development

59.8%

1,050

1,678

2,076

17.5

12.3

SGRO

Sampoerna Agro

68.1%

1,995

3,353

4,149

15.5

10.8

PNBN

Bank Pan Indonesia

69.0%

810

1,369

1,694

11.4

7.4

HRUM

Harum Energy

91.9%

2,160

4,146

5,130

16.6

6.5

PWON

Pakuwon Jati

130.0%

345

794

982

17.1

9.9

DYAN

Dyandra Media International

130.4%

236

544

673

14.8

9.8

MEDC

Medco Energi Internasional

185.3%

2,555

7,288

9,019

23.0

12.2

BKSL

Sentul City

370.7%

185

871

1,078

42.1

10.7

Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas

Changes to Mansek Top Buy Picks While this value investing methodology offers several interesting ideas, we need to always temper it with our own common-sense observation. The value accretion predicted by this model comes from two sources : (a) superior earnings growth in the long run, and (b) expansion in its valuation multiple. While we may have a high degree of confidence in our analysts’ earnings outlook, this model simply assumes that the valuation multiple expansion will materialize. There can be company-specific reasons why this valuation expansion may not occur. For example, Sentul City (BKSL) has suffered sustained de-rating due to issues that may not disappear simply because its earnings outlook has improved. Likewise with the coal sector (our model picks HRUM, ADRO and PTBA) – its long term PER multiple may reflect robust demand and supply dynamics in the past that can no longer be expected to recur now or in the foreseeable future. Lastly small liquidity is also a barrier to our picking Hexindo Adi Perkasa (HEXA) or Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN). FIGURE 23. MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO Ticker

Company's Name

Stock Price Starting 14-Apr-14 Stock Price

Changes

PER 2014F (x)

2014 EPS Growth Fcast

Target Price 25,000

AALI

Astra Agro Lestari (dropped)

27,750

21,200

30.9%

15.4

57.9%

BWPT

BW Plantations

1,315

1,180

11.4%

14.7

64.0%

1,750

LSIP

London Sumatra Plantations (dropped)

2,250

1,710

31.6%

13.4

49.4%

2,200

SMGR

Semen Indonesia (dropped)

15,925

17,500

-9.0%

16.0

9.9%

16,600

AISA

Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food

2,065

2,000

3.3%

15.9

37.1%

2,700

BBTN


1,250

1,295

-3.5%

7.4

12.0%

1,500

BJBR

BPD Jawa Barat dan Banten

1,145

1,040

10.1%

7.4

9.4%

1,300

BSDE

Bumi Serpong Damai

1,540

1,710

-9.9%

12.5

-17.5%

2,000

LPCK

Lippo Cikarang

7,650

7,800

-1.9%

6.6

36.5%

9,850

PWON

Pakuwon Jati (addition)

345

11.1

32.0%

430

SGRO

Sampoerna Agro (addition)

1,995

12.0

164.3%

3,000

CTRS

Ciputra Surya (addition)

2,285

8.6

27.8%

4,000

MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO

1,049.7

1,000.0

5.0%

Jakarta Composite Index

4,864.9

4,254.8

14.3%

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 From this study we pick Pakuwon Jati (PWON), Sampoerna Agro (SGRO) and Ciputra

Surya (CTRS). In addition to their attractive value now, in each case there are specific TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk significant Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, thematic Jl. Jend. Gatot reasons Subroto Kav.for 36 -expecting 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Industri Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), (Debt Sales) See the analyses in +62 pp.2119527–/ 5701 24.

value appreciation over the next 12 months.

Industri telahAgro mengalami masa London pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang(LSIP) lima and tahun We are alsopembiayaan dropping Astra Lestari (AALI), Sumatera Plantations Semen Indonesia We continue to like the tingkat prospects for crude palm oil price terakhir, dimana(SMGR). jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada rally – however we assess SGRO’s chances for delivering stronger value appreciation to kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, be better as its valuation multiple still lags its long-term average by a bigger gap than is pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan the case with either LSIP or AALI, Our model highlights the fact that SMGR’s current pembiayaan konsumen, sewa its guna kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan valuation multiple has exceeded longusaha term dan average significantly. dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% By contrast we are keeping Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) in Mansek Top Buy Picks despite our model highlighting a severe over-valuation. The reason is that our 5-year average 12Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun hingga September month rolling forward PER is calculated based onterakhir actual EPS figures – but for2008 mostdapat of dilihat pada Tampilan 2010, 2011 and 2012 theI. Street expected much lower earnings than what the company eventually delivered. Hence when calculated using the actual historical PER, its PER multiples appeared very INDUSTRI low duringPEMBIAYAAN these years. In addition, is aTERAKHIR growing TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA DALAM LIMAthere TAHUN divergence between consensus earnings expectation (rising) and LPCK’s stock price Rpp.miliar (falling) – see 50. This highlights LPCK’s deep value even more. 200,000

3,500

3,000 Pakuwon Jati: Solid development income backed by strong recurring income 150,000 (PWON; Buy; TP: Rp430) 2,500 2,000

by Rizky Hidayat

100,000

•

1,500 Solid and sustainable development income. PWON has shown strong marketing 1,000 of sales growths 50,000of over 60% in the past 2 years where we expect CAGR 2013-2016F 19.3%. We expect huge chunk of marketing sales coming from the Kota Kasablanka 500 phase 2 project, which should manifest its earnings starting in FY15F. For FY14F, we 0 0 expect flat marketing sales of Rp3.08tn. Despite primarily selling high rise products, we believe strong2003 brand name new project 2004 and2005 2006 launches 2007 should Oct-08keep PWON’s marketing sales on the defensive side this year. PWON’s current projects Total Asset Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Gunashould Usaha still have over 30 years of life backed by its landed projects in Surabaya. Anjak Piutang

•

Kartu Kredit

High and growing recurring income. PWON has the second largest recurring income Sumber: Bankportion Indonesiaat 47% of total revenue after LPKR. The company is very active in increasing their recurring income at 20% CAGR13-16F. New recurring income projects will be introduced in FY15F with the opening of Tunjungan Plaza phase 6, Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat Four Points by Sheraton Tunjungan, Sheraton Gandaria Hotel, and the Pakuwon dengan perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per Centrelembaga Office Tower. September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaan• Deleveraging balance sheet. PWON is actively deleveraging their balance sheet perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi where we expect 9% net gearing in FY14F. sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas • adanya Potential NAV booster. PWON hasyang been cukup in talks in acquiring in South Jakarta. keterikatan/ketergantungan besar atas land perusahaan-perusahaan We expect a potential boost in NAV from the acquisition. Based on our channel pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan check, land price in the South Jakarta area is around Rp20mn/sqm. perusahaan pembiayaan. • Premium valuation due to recurring income. PWON is currently trading at 11.17.9x FY14-15F PE. We believe that the premium valuation is justified due to PWON’s high recurring income. •

Key risk factors: 1) Marketing sales slowdown; 2) USD appreciation; 3) Hike in labor and electricity costs; 4) Market and political risks.



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy Strategy|| |14 14April April2014 2014 Strategy 14 April 2014 FIGURE 24. PWON MARKETING SALES FORECAST FIGURE FIGURE 24. 24. PWON PWON MARKETING MARKETING SALES SALES FORECAST FORECAST

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates Source: Source: Mandiri Mandiri Sekuritas Sekuritas Estimates Estimates

FIGURE 25. PWON’S RECURRING INCOME GROWTH FIGURE FIGURE 25. 25. PWON’S PWON’S RECURRING RECURRING INCOME INCOME GROWTH GROWTH

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates Source: Source: Mandiri Mandiri Sekuritas Sekuritas Estimates Estimates

FIGURE 26. PWON’S BALANCE SHEET AND LEVERAGE FIGURE FIGURE 26. 26. PWON’S PWON’S BALANCE BALANCE SHEET SHEET AND AND LEVERAGE LEVERAGE

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates Source: Source: Company, Company, Mandiri Mandiri Sekuritas Sekuritas Estimates Estimates

Page 20 of 60 Page Page 20 20 of of 60 60

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Please Please see see important important disclosure disclosure at at the the back back of of this this report report

Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Ciputra Surya: The City of Heroes (CTRS; Buy; TP: Rp4,000)

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk bySekuritas LilianaABambang

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt • Industri Lower than replacement cost.Sales) Currently,

CTRS is trading below its replacement cost of Rp2,800, as Surabaya landbanking cost currently Rp1-1.5mn per sqm. We Industri pembiayaan telahcost mengalami pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun think our replacement number ismasa conservative as other company landbanking terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada cost is Rp1-2mn per sqm. Thus, we believe that at current valuation CTRS is still kuartal III 2008 Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, appealing. CTRSmencapai is still trading at c. 70% discount to NAV versus average peers at 50-60%. CTRS trades at FY14F P/E of 9.4x, and FY15F P/Eyang of 7.2x. Its peers who pembiayaan anjakalsopiutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan berarti, sedangkan also have solid branding, are trading at 11-14x forward P/E. pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan

tingkat masing-masing 24.41%, danbeen 12.25% • dengan Steady trackCAGR record. Since 2010 until now,25.77% CTRS has consistently adding 2-4 new projects p.a. With the addition of new projects, the company marketing sales grew by 53% CAGR in FY11-13. As lima of FY13, onlyterakhir around hingga 43% ofSeptember its marketing salesdapat is Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam tahun 2008 contributed by Surabaya and Greater Surabaya areas. As of end of FY13, the dilihat pada Tampilan I. company has a total of 19 projects, 9 projects in Java and 10 projects in ex-Java. The new project for FY14F-15F even include areas such as Jayapura. •


Potential solid growth in FY15F. For FY14F, the company estimate 32% YoY declineRp of miliar marketing sales to Rp2.2tn. The decline is due to slower contribution of Citraland Bagya in FY13) 200,000 City Medan (as the project has been extremely successful 3,500 and as the company holds the launch of its new projects. For FY15F, we estimate 3,000 CTRS to book 32% marketing sales growth. 150,000

2,500

•

NPAT CAGR of 29% for FY13-15F. We estimate CTRS to book NPAT CAGR of 29% 2,000 for FY13-15F, 100,000from Rp413bn to Rp688bn. We view our estimate as conservative, 1,500also considering its marketing sales grew by 53% CAGR in FY11-13. The company has sufficient sales advances in its book. 1,000

•

Buy with PT of Rp4,000. We have BUY recommendation for CTRS with 500PT of Rp4,000, which implies FY14F P/E of 15x and FY15F P/E of 11.5x. We estimate CTRS 0 0 NAV to be Rp8,077. Our PT is based on 50% discount to CTRS’ NAV. Key risks: 1) 2004 2006 cause 2007the company Oct-08 to trade at slow introduction 2003 of new projects, 2)2005 Low liquidity higher discount to NAV. Total Asset Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha

50,000

Anjak Piutang

Kartu Kredit

Lippo Cikarang: Adding value from JV and residential (LPCK; Buy; TP: Rp9,850) Sumber: Bank Indonesia

by Liliana Bambang satu karakteristik dariLPCK industri pembiayaan hubungannya cukup erat • Salah JV projects add value. recently did a JVadalah for 227ha, with anyang independent dengan lembaga perbankan. ini channel dibuktikan dariwith dataagent statistik Bank that Indonesia third party (Delta Silicon 8).HalOur check indicates there isper September 2008 menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanalready 10 ha yang of bookings of industrial estate with price per sqm of Rp2.2mn. Buyers arepembiayaan Japanese SME’s for automotive support and electronic industries. obligasi Due perusahaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan to buoyant queries, management thinks that they could potentially sell 70-75ha of sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas industrial land instead of initial expectation of 15ha. Potential JV could be up to adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 2,000ha. As LPCK provide infrastructure and toll road access, there are incentives pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan for third party owners to do JV with LPCK.2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan. • Converting industrial to residential. The company would introduce new CBD concept called Orange County for 180ha. The company also has extra landbank in Era Baru for 80ha which would be used for residential and commercial. Hence, LPCK’s residential and commercial currently consists of 40% of total landbank versus previously of 30%. With additions from JV project and conversion to residential, our NAV number came to be Rp19,700.




•

Project pipeline in 1Q14. Project pipeline in 1Q14 rather weak as the company waited for the opening of its new toll access, which was just opened recently, but we think it should accelerate in the next few quarters. The company’s recent project is Trivium apartment with ASP of Rp13-15mn per sqm. Including Delta Silicon 8, we estimate the company accomplished 15-18% of its FY14F target of Rp2tn in 1Q14. This is broadly in-line with peers. The company plans to introduce another 2 tower of serviced apartments in its Cikarang CBD.

•

JV potential remains. Despite recent price appreciation, we think valuation remains attractive. With our NAV number of Rp19,700, LPCK is trading at 62% discount to NAV. At current share price, it is trading at FY14F P/E of 6.6x (vs. residential peers at 12x). Stock also cheap compared to industrial peers at 40% discount to NAV and 9x FY14F P/E (consensus). There is potential NAV addition, if LPCK further tied up with other players behind its land-bank.

•

Key risk: 1) Weak concept of Cikarang CBD, 2) Rapid increase of minimum wage.

FIGURE 27. LPCK FORECASTED MARKETING SALES

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

FIGURE 28. MARKETING SALES BREAKDOWN

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Sampoerna Agro: EV/ha is as cheap as cost of new planting

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk bySekuritas Hariyanto Wijaya

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance / 5701 Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 (Debt • Industri Sizable recovery in527FY14F netSales) income.

SGRO’s FY13 net income declined 64% yoy due to: 1) 11.1% yoy decrease in FY13 nucleus FFB production on lagging Industri mengalami pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang tahun impactpembiayaan of droughttelah in 2012 in Southmasa Sumatra. 2) 30% of its FY13 total lima nucleus terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada mature (15.5k ha total FY12 and FY13 newly mature nucleus) still contributed loss kuartal III consolidated 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. DalamFY14 hal net pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, to FY13 profit. We think SGRO’s income should recover sizeably due to: piutang 1) recovery FY14F production volume, 2) 15.5k ha sedangkan mature pembiayaan anjak tidakin mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, nucleus should start generating profit in FY14F. pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan

tingkat CAGR 25.77% dan 12.25% • dengan Production volumemasing-masing should grow24.41%, strongly in FY14F. We estimate SGRO’s FFB production to grow strongly in FY14F as it recovers from lagging impact of 2012 drought. According to BMKG’s map and channel check to our source in Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalamrainfall lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat South Sumatra, there was no drought in 2013 and in the beginning 2014 in South dilihat pada Tampilan I. Sumatra. Therefore, we think SGRO’s FY14 CPO production should recover sizably. • TAMPILAN 15.5k ha1.mature area (30% of FY13 total DALAM nucleusLIMA mature) should start KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN TAHUN TERAKHIR generating profit in FY14F. Total newly mature nucleus in FY12 and FY13 is Rp This miliar15.5k ha still contributed gross loss to FY13 consolidated net income 15,479ha. as newly mature’s low FFB yield made production cost per unit higher than selling 200,000 3,500 price (see Figure 9 & 10). Increasingly mature FFB yield of 15.5k ha should make it 3,000 start generating profit in FY14F. 150,000

2,500

•

The current EV/ha is still as cheap as new planting cost. SGRO’s US$5,819 EV/ha 2,000 (total planted) 100,000 is at 55% discount to weighted average plantation companies EV/ha of US$12,991. We think improving earnings should boost SGRO’s share price1,500

•

Risks to our call: 1) Fluctuation in CPO price. 2) Sizable increase in minimum1,000 wages. 50,000 500

FIGURE 29. SGRO’S FFB PRODUCTION 0 SGRO's FFB production (in Tons FFB) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2,000,000 Total Asset Pembiayaan Konsumen 1,600,000

Anjak Piutang

0


Kartu Kredit


1,200,000

Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per 800,000 September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi 400,000 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas sebesar 2011 2012 2013 2014Fbesar 2015F 2016F adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup atas perusahaan-perusahaan pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan Plasma FFB production Nucleus FFB production perusahaan pembiayaan. Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates




FIGURE 30. NEWLY MATURE PLANTATION USUALLY GENERATE LOSS BECAUSE IT STILL GENERATE LOW FFB YIELD Although contribute to volume growth, newly mature usually contribute net loss due to high cost per unit palm product

contribute to volume growth due to higher FFB yield and to net income due to lower cost per unit palm product

FFB yield/ha/year

20

10

0 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 11 12 13 14 15 Age of plantation (years old)

All expenses during immature are capitalized to Balance sheet

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

All expenses after reclassification to mature are recorded as expenses in income statement

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas analysis

FIGURE 31. NEWLY MATURE PLANTATION USUALLY GENERATES LOSS. MATURING TREES SHOULD GENERATE HIGHER PROFIT MARGIN DUE TO HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY, I.E. HIGHER FFB YIELD. 1st year 3rd year Peak mature mature production Cost per Ha (Rp full) a 17,500,000 17,500,000 17,500,000 FFB yield (ton/ha) b 8 14 24

Oil Extraction rate CPO (ton/ha)

c d=bXc

22.5% 1.8

22.5% 3.2

22.5% 5.4

Kernel Extraction rate Kernel (ton/ha)

e f=bXe

3.5% 0.3

3.5% 0.5

3.5% 0.8

Palm oil products (ton/ha)

g=d+f

2.1

3.6

6.2

Cost of palm products/kg (Rp)

h = (a / g)/1000

8,413

4,808

2,804

Selling price assumptions : CPO (Rp/kg) Kernel (Rp/kg)

i j

7,200 3,600

7,200 3,600

7,200 3,600

k =((d X i)+(f X j))/g

6,715

6,715

6,715

l=k-h

(1,698) (25.3)

1,908 28.4

3,911 58.2

Selling price of Palm Oil products (Rp/kg) Gross profit/ (gross loss) (Rp/kg) Gross profit margin / (gross loss margin) ( in %) Source: Mandiri Sekuritas analysis




The Methodology’s Weaknesses


There are several pitfalls in applying this value investing methodology :

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

PER may not be the most appropriate valuation tool. The valuation of a number of sectors does nottelah primarily use PER. Notably the banking uses lima pricetahun to Industri pembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesatsector sepanjang book ratio more intensely, and the property sector pays more attention to terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada marketing sales. Rig builders’ valuation is correlated more to their order books than kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, their earnings. However the number of such sectors is small and we can always pembiayaan tidak mengalami pertumbuhan individuallyanjak assesspiutang such valuation on a case-by-case basis. yang berarti, sedangkan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 2. Future EPS forecasts may be badly wrong. In other words, the Year 3 EPS dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% forecasts may not reflect the firm’s long term prospects accurately. This is evidently true, but the same weakness would exist in any other valuation methodology. We Kinerja industri pembiayaan limawhere tahun our terakhir hinggalevel September dapat just need to highlight thosedalam forecasts confidence is low. In2008 Mandiri dilihat pada now Tampilan I. the case with Dyandra Media International (DYAN). We have Universe this is yet to revise our forecasts to reflect the fact that the company did not meet our IPO forecasts for TAMPILAN 1. 2013. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR 1.

3.

Historical PERs may be distorted by wrong consensus forecasts. Using actual Rp miliar historical EPS implies that companies delivering a positive earnings surprise would 3,500 “seem” 200,000 to trade at low historical PERs (because the actual EPS proved to be significantly higher than consensus forecasts at the time) and conversely, 3,000 companies delivering a negative earnings surprise would “seem” to trade at high 150,000 2,500 historical PERs. As a solution, rather than using the actual historical EPS, we can use 2,000 contemporary consensus EPS forecasts. However this will substitute one problem 100,000 with another problem – if the stocks are not well covered (let say, covered1,500 by less than 5 stock brokers), then the consensus number will be sensitive to an outlier 1,000 forecast.50,000 So both formats would be subject to the risk of wrong consensus forecasts 500 this – we just have to highlight cases where this occurred. In Mansek Top Buy Picks is an issue with LPCK as observed above. 0 0

4.

The methodology effect on long term PER 2003assumes 2004 a “mean 2005 reversion” 2006 2007 Oct-08 multiples. ThisTotal mayAsset well not be an appropriate assumption to make, but Usaha we would Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna argue that the best solution is to highlight such cases individually. In Mansek Piutang Kartuand Kredit Universe this isAnjak indeed an issue with BKSL the coal sector generally.

5. Sumber: Why Bank focus on earnings ? Shouldn’t some measures of efficiency in the use of Indonesia capital or labour be better ? This may well be the case, but as we alluded earlier the simple PER works best amongst various popular valuation tools in picking likely Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat winners and losers in Indonesia’s stock market. We will however extend our tests to dengan ini use dibuktikan dari data ROCE statistik Bankand Indonesia some lembaga measuresperbankan. of efficiencyHal in the of capital (either or ROA) labour inper September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanthe future to complete our analysis. perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi While every methodology will contain some inherent weaknesses, we believe this sebesartransparency, 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman sebesar 12.1%. help Datainvestors ini mempertegas system’s ease of calculationlainnya and clear logic should to pick adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan those stocks with the best long term value potential. pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan.




Sectoral Outlook Mansek’s valuation methodology is based on bottom-up analysis but some sectors are well over-represented : banking, plantation, property and just one agricultural stock. These sectors tend to offer the best long term potential at the cheapest valuation available today. Banking sector (Overweight) by Tjandra Lienandjaja FIGURE 32. BANK VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION Last Target Mkt. Cap Price Price (Rpbn)

Ticker

Rating

BBCA

Neutral

10,500

11,250

BBNI

Neutral

4,750

BBRI

Buy

BBTN

Buy

BDMN

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

Div. Yield (%)

EPS Gr.(%)

ROE(%)

NPL

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

277,369

17.6

14.8

3.7

3.1

1.3%

1.5%

10.3%

19.0%

22.5%

22.5%

0.5%

2015 0.5%

4,950

92,311

9.9

8.3

1.7

1.4

2.9%

2.5%

3.0%

19.5%

18.2%

18.7%

2.3%

2.1%

10,600

9,775

241,141

10.5

8.8

2.5

2.0

2.2%

2.4%

7.1%

19.2%

26.0%

25.4%

2.0%

1.9%

1,500

1,250

12,946

7.4

6.6

1.0

0.9

3.0%

3.4%

12.0%

13.0%

14.3%

14.4%

3.4%

3.2%

Neutral

4,300

4,550

43,610

10.0

8.2

1.3

1.1

2.8%

3.0%

7.7%

21.8%

13.3%

14.6%

2.3%

2.2%

BJBR

Buy

1,300

1,145

11,102

7.4

6.5

1.5

1.3

5.6%

6.1%

9.4%

13.4%

21.1%

21.1%

2.8%

2.6%

BJTM

Neutral

500

477

7,045

7.3

6.0

1.2

1.1

8.6%

8.6%

17.0%

21.5%

16.4%

18.4%

4.0%

3.7%

BTPN

Buy

5,275

4,100

23,945

9.9

7.7

1.9

1.6

0.0%

0.0%

13.4%

27.9%

21.7%

22.3%

0.9%

0.8%

PNBN

Buy

780

810

19,511

7.9

6.3

1.0

0.9

4.1%

2.5%

9.0%

25.1%

12.7%

14.3%

2.5%

2.3%

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas

We anticipate banks to see slower quarter in 1Q14 with loan growth slowing (typical weaker quarter), higher cost of funds, rising problem loans and hence weaker net interest margin. Total industry loan growth was 21.8% in December 2013 and this has slowed to 21.4% y-y in January 2014 and further close to 20% in February 2014. On the type of use, investment loans recorded the highest growth rate and consumer loans the lowest. Deposit growth is still below the loan growth and hence industry LDR is still on the rise towards 92%. 2014 will see asset quality deterioration, which usually takes place 6-9 months after the interest rate increase. This trend is expected to continue in 2Q14 before stabilizing and on the declining trend again in the second half of 2014. Industry NPL has risen 13 bps to 1.90% in January 2014 from 1.77% in December 2013 and this could reach 2.0-2.1% in March 2014 and further to 2.4-2.5% in June 2014. However, banks usually write off their bad debts in the last quarter and hence we expect the NPL level will start declining again by end of the year. With slower loan growth, rising NPL and the full impact of deposit rate adjustment we anticipate some banks with weak deposit franchise to see margin compression of around 20-30 bps compared to the one recorded in 4Q13, which we believe is exceptionally high. Bank Danamon, BTPN and BTN are likely to see lower margin while the large banks are expected to see stable margin. These banks are still adjusting their lending rates while pressure on deposit rates has abated in 1Q14 relative to the rates in December 2013. Hence we expect margin for these banks to remain stable. The slow start of 2014 is expected to turn into a more rigorous outlook in second half of the year, when the new government is formed. We believe the market to turn more positive on the new era, which will result in escalating banking activities, which will continue in 2015 and 2016. We expect average earnings to grow 8% y-y in 2014, down from 17% y-y in 2013 but with a more positive outlook for 2015, earnings growth should rise to 21% y-y in 2015. Of the large banks , we maintain our stock pick on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ; TP Rp10,600), which is trading at 2.5x P/BV 2014E with 26% ROE. Of the smaller banks, we suggest Bank BTN (BBTN IJ; TP Rp1,500) and Bank bjb (BBJB IJ; TP Rp1,300), which are trading at 1.0x and 1.5x P/BV 2014E with the expected ROE of 14% and 21% for the year.



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 FIGURE 33. INDUSTRY LOANS BASED ON TYPE OF USE

FIGURE 34. INDUSTRY NPL TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (Rp tr)

(%)

9.0 8.0

60.0

40.0 Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 7.0 30.0 50.0 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 6.0 20.0 40.0 5.0 kuartal III 2008 10.0 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 4.0 pembiayaan anjak- piutang 30.0 tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 3.0 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa (10.0) 20.0guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 2.0 (20.0) masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% dengan tingkat CAGR 10.0

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 -

1.0

-

-

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jan-10

NPL (LHS) DALAMAsLIMA of totalTAHUN loans (RHS) TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN TERAKHIR

Source: Banks, Mandiri Sekuritas

Source: Banks, Mandiri Sekuritas

Rp miliar 200,000

3,500

Cement sector – Overweight – Beneficiary of infrastructure play 150,000

2,000

FIGURE 35. BUILDING MATERIAL SECTOR VALUATION TABLE 100,000 Ticker

Rating

Last Target Mkt. Cap Price Price (Rpbn)

SMCB

Neutral

2,800

21,459

PER(x)

EV/EBITDA(x)

2014

2015

16.7

14.8

50,000 2014

INTP

Buy

22,950

24,000

84,484

15.5

13.9

SMGR

Buy

15,925

16,600

94,459

16.0

14.2

Div. Yield (%)

EPS Gr.(%)

1,500 ROE(%)

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014 1,0002015

7.8

2.2

2.0

1.3%

1.8%

35.2%

12.9%

13.9% 500 14.1%

9.6

8.6

3.2

2.7

1.9%

2.1%

8.5%

11.7%

21.9%

21.0%

10.7

9.6

3.9

3.4

2.8%

3.1%

9.9%

12.9%

26.2%

25.7%

2003


P/BV(x)

2015

8.4

0

3,000 2,500

By Liliana Bambang

2,700

Feb-13

Feb-12

Feb-11

Feb-10

Feb-09

Feb-08

Feb-07

Feb-06

Working Capital Growth (RHS) Consumption Growth (RHS)

Feb-05

Working Capital Consumption Investment Growth (RHS)

Feb-04

Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat dilihat pada Tampilan I. Investments Feb-03

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Jan-03

Jan-02

(30.0)

Jan-12

3,000

(Rp tr) (% y-y) Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 3660.0 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 70.0 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 50.0

Jan-11

3,500

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

Oct-08

Asset Pembiayaan Earnings likely toTotal be in-line. With improving IDR Konsumen and declining Sewa coal Guna price,Usaha we think that the phase of Anjak cement earnings downgrade for FY14F already ended. In the past Piutang Kartu Kredit three months, cement companies have raised ASP by 1.5-3.0%. For FY14F, cement companies areIndonesia aiming for 5-6% ASP increase to compensate for potential hike in Sumber: Bank electricity prices. We currently projects cement demand to grow by 3.7% YoY in FY14F to 60.2mn MT. Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat Can valuation overshoot? current juncture, P/E for cement companiesper dengan lembaga perbankan.AtHal ini dibuktikan darivaluations data statistik Bank Indonesia areSeptember already in-line with previous average of 15-16x. However, we view that the 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanvaluation could potentially overshoot on the back of positive news on Indonesia politics perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi or infrastructure reform policies. We would look to take profit if the valuation is sebesar 17x 11%fordan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas exceeding Indonesia cement stocks. adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Picks: INTP. terhadap At current juncture,Tampilan we prefer INTP on the back of itssumber strong pendanaan balance pembiayaan perbankan. 2 menunjukkan komposisi sheet. Key risks includes further or prolonged slowdown in the economy and if new perusahaan pembiayaan. entrants come into the market sooner than expected. We estimate that bulk of the new entrants would come into the market in FY16F.



Strategy Strategy|| |14 14April April2014 2014 Strategy 14 April 2014 FIGURE 36. CEMENT CONSUMPTION FIGURE 36. CEMENT CONSUMPTION

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

Constructions and toll road update Constructions and toll road update by Handoko Wijoyo by Handoko Wijoyo FIGURE 37. INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR VALUATION TABLE FIGURE 37. INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR VALUATION TABLE Ticker Ticker ADHI ADHI PTPP PTPP WIKA WIKA WSKT WSKT WTON WTON JSMR JSMR

Rating Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy

PER(x) PER(x) 2014 2015 2014 2015 14.2 10.1 14.2 10.1 16.7 13.9 16.7 13.9 20.7 17.5 20.7 17.5 17.5 13.0 17.5 13.0 23.0 18.3 23.0 18.3 26.0 23.7 26.0 23.7

Last Target Mkt. Cap Last Target Cap Price Price Mkt. (Rpbn) Price Price (Rpbn) 2,975 2,500 5,359 2,975 2,500 5,359 1,775 2,100 8,595 1,775 2,100 8,595 2,265 2,300 13,829 2,265 2,300 13,829 715 600 6,887 715 600 6,887 765 800 6,667 765 800 6,667 6,025 6,200 40,970 6,025 6,200 40,970

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Mandiri Sekuritas

EV/EBITDA(x) EV/EBITDA(x) 2014 2015 2014 2015 5.2 4.1 5.2 4.1 5.9 4.7 5.9 4.7 10.9 9.4 10.9 9.4 9.6 8.0 9.6 8.0 11.0 9.6 11.0 9.6 14.7 13.6 14.7 13.6

P/BV(x) P/BV(x) 2014 2015 2014 2015 3.0 2.4 3.0 2.4 3.7 3.0 3.7 3.0 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.4 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.2 3.2 2.8 3.2 2.8 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.6

Div. Yield (%) Div. Yield (%) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5%

EPS Gr.(%) EPS Gr.(%) 2014 2015 2014 2015 -7.2% 40.9% -7.2% 40.9% 22.6% 20.2% 22.6% 20.2% 17.2% 18.2% 17.2% 18.2% 7.1% 34.8% 7.1% 34.8% 19.5% 25.5% 19.5% 25.5% 18.1% 9.7% 18.1% 9.7%

ROE(%) ROE(%) 2014 2015 2014 2015 22.6% 26.5% 22.6% 26.5% 23.8% 24.0% 23.8% 24.0% 20.9% 21.1% 20.9% 21.1% 15.6% 18.5% 15.6% 18.5% 20.9% 16.4% 20.9% 16.4% 16.1% 15.9% 16.1% 15.9%

Mostly in-line result, PTPP was the strongest performer (36% yoy growth and Mostly in-line result, PTPP was the strongest performer (36% yoy growth and 115% of our FY2013F estimate). Despite volatile Rupiah exchange rate and increasing 115% of our FY2013F estimate). Despite volatile Rupiah exchange rate and increasing BI rate during 2H2013, the sector delivered mostly inline result, where ADHI was the BI rate during 2H2013, sector delivered inlinewhile result, where was the weakest (Rp110bn forexthe gain/27% of FY2013mostly net profit, PTPP was ADHI the strongest weakest (Rp110bn forex gain/27% of FY2013 net profit, while PTPP was the strongest performer (109% of consensus FY2013F). in addition, margins were relatively stable for performer (109% of consensus FY2013F). in addition, margins were relatively stable for all counters, except for PTPP (30 bps yoy decline). all counters, except for PTPP (30 bps yoy decline). FIGURE 38. STRONG GROWTH MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE FIGURE 38. STRONG GROWTH MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE 92% 2012 2012 2014F 2014F

29% 29% 25% 25% 17% 18% 17% 18%

FIGURE 39. NET MARGIN COMPARISON FIGURE 39. NET MARGIN COMPARISON

92%

2013 2013 2015F 2015F 36% 29% 36% 23% 20% 29% 23% 20%

48% 45% 48% 45%

4.7%4.8%4.6%4.7% 4.7%4.8%4.6%4.7%

41% 41%

35% 35% 7% 7%

2012 2012

2013 2013

2014F 2014F

3.9% 3.9%3.6%3.4%3.5% 3.6% 3.4%3.5%

3.9% 3.8% 3.8%3.6%3.9% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9%

PTPP PTPP

WSKT WSKT

2015F 2015F 4.1% 4.1% 2.8% 2.8%

3.8% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2%

16% 16%

-7% -7%

WIKA WIKA

PTPP PTPP

Source: Company and Mansek Source: Company and Mansek

WSKT WSKT

ADHI ADHI

WIKA WIKA

Source: Company and Mansek Source: Company and Mansek

ADHI ADHI

Order book wise, we are positive on PTPP (Rp19.6tn) and WIKA (Rp17.7tn) FY2013 Order book wise, we are positive on PTPP (Rp19.6tn) and WIKA (Rp17.7tn) FY2013 new contract achievement. ADHI and WSKT booked Rp11tn and Rp13tn new contract, new contractThis achievement. ADHI and WSKT booked Rp11tn and respectively. year, state-owned contractors are targeting 15%Rp13tn to 35% new new contract, contract respectively. This year, state-owned contractors are targeting 15% to 35% new contract growth. In an election year, we would expect that central and regional government growth. In an budget electiongrowth year, we would regional government infrastructure would beexpect lower that than central normal.and Hence, we would prefer infrastructure budget growth would be lower than normal. Hence, we would contractors (WIKA and PTPP) that their revenue is mostly secured from carry-overprefer order contractors (WIKA and PTPP) that their revenue is mostly secured from carry-over order book from last year (2013). book from last year (2013). Page 28 of 60 Page 28 of 60 Page 28 of 60

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Strategy 14 April April 2014 2014 Strategy || 14 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 FIGURE 40. INDONESIA CONTRACTOR REVENUE MIX

FIGURE 41. INDONESIA CONTRACTOR ORDER BOOK OUTLOOK

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 2014F Other revenue

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 2014F Construction revenue 273527 Industri Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

2014 Revenue (all segment) - Rp bn New contract target - Rp bn

22,893 mengalami

-

5,413

15,067 11,800 8,984

over - Rpsepanjang bn Industri pembiayaan telah masa pertumbuhanCarry pesat lima tahun 22,368 terakhir,800dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 18,700 yang berarti, 15,900 sedangkan pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan 11,004 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 24,141 21,933 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% 15,341dan 12.25% 14,397 10,400

WIKA

WSKT

PTPP

Source: Company and Mansek

11,800

11,400

11,000

Kinerja ADHI industri pembiayaanWIKA dalam lima tahun terakhir WSKT hingga September 2008 dapat PTPP ADHI dilihat pada Tampilan I. Source: Company and Mansek Where are they trading?INDUSTRI The valuation leader, WIKA IJ (US$1.17bn market cap) is TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR currently trading at 19.4x 2014PE. While we do not expect any significant change in Rp miliar in politics will play a very significant part on valuation multiple. margin, sentiment Following the recent re-rating on the sector (end of March) on the back of3,500 Jokowi 200,000 presidential nomination, the sector was experiencing a 5-10% one-day average drop in share price as market was disappointed with lower than expected PDI-P result3,000 on the 150,000 2,500 parliament election. We are positive on the long term outlook on Indonesia infrastructure, yet believe that most of the good news is already in the price. 2,000 The 100,000 upcoming development in politics front may provide investors with more attractive 1,500 entry level. Top pick in the sector are PTPP, WTON and WIKA. 1,000

50,000

FIGURE 42. WIKA PE BAND WIKA

PE (x)

FIGURE 43. WSKT PE BAND

0

35

2003

30

30 25

25

Total Asset

20

Anjak Piutang

2004

2005


10

2006

0

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

20


Kartu Kredit

15

15

500 WSKT

PE (x)

10 5

5

FIGURE 44. ADHI PE BAND ADHI

PE (x) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Apr-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

PE (x)

Source: Bloomberg and Mansek

Salah satu karakteristik dari0 industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak PE78% pendanaan perusahaanMean (x) sumberMean perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi Source: Bloomberg and Mansek sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas FIGURE 45. yang PTPP PE BAND besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan cukup pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan PE (x) PTPPkomposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan. 25

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-09

Apr-09

0

20 15 10 5

PE (x)


disclosure at the back of this report Please 2 ofimportant Pagesee 16

Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Mean

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-09

Apr-09

0

PE (x)

Mean


Page 29 of 60


FIGURE 46. WTON PE BAND

FIGURE 47. JSMR PE BAND WTON

PE (x)

JSMR

PE (x) 35

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

30 25 20 15 10

PE (x)

Mean

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

PE (x)


Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-09

Apr-09

0

11-Apr-14

10-Apr-14

9-Apr-14

8-Apr-14

7-Apr-14

5

Mean


Potential fuel subsidy reform and full implementation of the new land acquisition bill will be the major catalysts in the sector. The recent news flow suggesting that reform on fuel subsidy might be executed in 2H13, during the transition period for the new government. While savings may differ according to the reform structure, the country’s 2013 total subsidy bill is approximately Rp200tn is similar to the annual central government infrastructure budget. In addition, the full implementation of the new land acquisition is expected to ease land acquisition progress, which has been the main culprit for slow infrastructure development in Indonesia. Toll road sector will be the major beneficiary of the land acquisition law implementation. If successfully implemented, the new land acquisition will expedite toll road development. In addition, it should provide investor with more certainty in terms of project execution risk and cost. JSMR currently has ~100km of toll road concessions that are on land acquisition stage (~18% of its 560km operating toll roads). JSMR is currently trading at 26.0x 2014PE and 14.7x 2014EV/EBITDA.

Consumer Sector (Neutral) – improvement

Prefer Commodity exposure & ROE

by Herman Koeswanto FIGURE 48. CONSUMER SECTOR VALUATION TABLE Ticker

Rating


AISA

Buy

2,065

2,700

6,195

PER(x)

EV/EBITDA(x)

P/BV(x)

Div. Yield (%)

EPS Gr.(%)

ROE(%)

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

15.9

11.7

9.7

7.7

2.6

2.2

0.0%

0.0%

37.1%

35.7%

18.0%

20.5%

GGRM

Neutral

49,600

53,000

95,435

19.5

17.2

12.0

10.8

2.9

2.6

1.8%

2.0%

13.3%

12.9%

15.9%

16.2%

ICBP

Neutral

10,000

10,700

58,310

25.4

22.8

15.1

12.8

4.2

3.8

1.9%

2.0%

3.1%

11.4%

17.3%

17.6%

INDF

Buy

7,225

8,200

63,435

15.7

12.1

8.5

6.8

2.4

2.1

2.0%

3.2%

61.8%

29.1%

16.2%

18.6%

MYOR

Sell

29,625

22,000

26,485

31.2

27.8

16.3

14.5

5.9

5.1

1.2%

1.0% -18.6%

12.5%

20.4%

19.9%

UNVR

Buy

30,750

34,500

234,623

38.1

34.0

28.0

26.2

46.4

40.4

2.3%

2.6%

15.0%

12.2% 132.2% 127.1%

17.3% -20.4%

WIIM

Buy

KLBF

Neutral

DYAN

Buy

705

940

1,481

9.6

12.0

6.3

8.2

1.7

1.6

3.1%

2.5%

19.3%

13.7%

1,520

1,275

71,250

31.5

27.1

20.8

17.9

7.7

6.7

1.5%

1.8%

9.5%

16.1%

26.0%

26.3%

236

425

1,008

11.0

7.7

5.5

4.0

1.0

0.9

0.0%

0.0%

34.4%

41.8%

9.8%

12.1%


Rushing on promotion. We expect margin compression across the board is imminent in 2014 following significant increase of A&P spending especially from local players like ICBP and MYOR due to more intense competition within the industry (as suggested by media company that we have visited, suggest media companies to benefit the most from A&P spending hike). We view the A&P spending trend to go up going forward especially from local players that still have low budget of below 8-9% of revenue vs multinational companies that already spent 12-13% of revenue for A&P spending Page 30 of 60 Page 30 of 60


Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 including UNVR. In addition, further rising raw TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk appreciation and lower margin.

material prices would offset IDR

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Industri Multifinance / 5701 Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax 1Q14 : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527 (Debt Sales) results preview. Within our coverage, we

view that ICBP and MYOR potentially to record below than market expectation results due to higher A&P spending and Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun potential forex loss. While GGRM, UNVR and WIIM are likely to record in-line or within terakhir, dimana jumlahis aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat sehingga pada market expectation. And INDF potentially to report better thanCAGR market21.93%, expectation kuartal III 2008 Rp153.6triliun. hal pembiayaan yangprice dikucurkan, results driven by forex gainmencapai and stronger agribusiness Dalam performance thanks to CPO pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan hike. pembiayaan konsumen, danwith kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan Stock picks. At this juncture, we sewa prefer guna to be usaha selective several investment criteria: dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 1.) Company with strong NPAT growth with potential valuation rerating, 2.) Strong ROE improvement and 3.) Company that has commodity related business exposure. Those criteria are fit to industri our top pembiayaan picks including UNVR, INDF. hingga Given its strong ROE Kinerja dalam lima AISA tahunand terakhir September 2008 dapat improvement track record from 61% in 2003 up to 126% in 2013 with continuously dilihat pada Tampilan I. improving cash cycle and working capital management, UNVR worth for premium valuation and remain the key proxy of Indonesia emerging consumer sector to foreign TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR fund flow, in our view. In small cap stock, WIIM has the most undemanding valuation which is trading atRp 50-60% miliar discount to GGRM. 200,000

3,500

3,000 Heavy equipment (Neutral): Beneficiary of boom in construction sector 150,000 post election year 2,500 2,000

by Hariyanto Wijaya 100,000

1,500

FIGURE 49. HEAVY EQUIPMENT SECTOR VALUATION TABLE PER(x) EV/EBITDA(x) 50,000 Last Target Mkt. Cap

Ticker

Rating

HEXA

Buy

UNTR

Neutral

Price

Price

(Rpbn)

2014

2015

3,930

5,450

3,301

13.8

9.9

21,200

17,000

79,079

15.8

15.3


2014 9.3 0 6.6

P/BV(x)

Div. Yield (%)

EPS Gr.(%)

ROE(%) 1,000

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

6.9

1.6

1.4

6.5%

2.2% -61.0%

38.2%

11.3%

6.8

2.2

2.3%

2.4%

2003

Total Asset

2.0

2004

2005

2006

3.6%

3.5%

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

14.4%

Oct-08

500 2015 14.7% 0

13.6%

Sewa Guna Usaha

Domestic heavy equipment inventory has already back to healthy level. Heavy Anjak Piutang Kartu (their Kredittotal market share is around equipment inventory of UNTR, HEXA, INTA and KOBX 68% of domestic heavy equipment) have already back to healthy level, which should Sumber: tight Bank Indonesia slightly relieve competition in domestic heavy equipment market. Meanwhile, competition from new comers is manageable, which can be seen from their stable market share. Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan spending lembaga perbankan. Hal iniin dibuktikan dari should data statistik Bankheavy Indonesia per Infrastructure should boom 2015, which increase September 2008 bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber perusahaanequipment demand. We yang thinkmenyatakan the escalation in capital spending should pendanaan occur in 2015 due to 1)perusahaan post-election effect. Whoever the next Indonesia president is, government pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi capital spending up in the first two years post presidential the sebesar tends 11% to danspike pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. election Data iniasmempertegas new elected president wants to show his contribution to the nation. 2) The new land adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan acquisition law to be fully effective by December 2014, which will remove the key pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan barrier to infrastructure development in Indonesia. perusahaan pembiayaan. Demand from mining sector still weak. With coal price still below US$80 per ton, demand from mining sector should keep weak. Based on our channel check to industry sources, mining sector’s heavy equipment replacement cycle is not in 2014. Maintain Neutral on sector and Reiterate Buy call on HEXA. We think HEXA as the most exposed listed heavy equipment distributor to infrastructure sector should get benefit from the escalation of government capital spending post-election year. Risk to our call: 1) lower than expectation government infrastructure spending. 2) Continuing weak coal price.



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy|| |14 14 April2014 2014 Strategy Strategy 14 April April 2014 FIGURE 50. DOMESTIC HEAVY EQUIPMENT INVENTORY HAS ALREADY BACK TO HEALTHY FIGURE 50. DOMESTIC HEAVY EQUIPMENT INVENTORY HAS ALREADY BACK TO HEALTHY LEVEL FIGURE 50. DOMESTIC HEAVY EQUIPMENT INVENTORY HAS ALREADY BACK TO HEALTHY LEVEL Heavy equipment inventory Dec'13 LEVEL Heavy equipment inventory Dec'11 Dec'13 Dec'12 Dec'13 YoY Chg (%) Heavy equipment inventory Dec'13 Dec'11 Dec'12 Dec'13 YoY Chg (%) UNTR (US$ mn) 216 327 167 -49.0% Dec'11 Dec'12 Dec'13 YoY Chg (%) UNTR (US$ mn) 216 327 167 -49.0% HEXA (US$ mn) mn) 122 178 149 -16.3% UNTR (US$ 216 327 167 -49.0% HEXA (US$ mn)and Hitachi 122 178 149 -16.3% Total Komatsu 338 505 316 -37.5% HEXA (US$ mn) 122 178 149 -16.3% Total Komatsu and Hitachi 338 505 316 -37.5% Total Komatsu and Hitachi 338 505 316 -37.5% INTA (US$ mn) 43 76 35 -54.5% INTA (US$ 43 76 35 -54.5% KOBX (US$mn) mn) 55 64 60 -5.7% INTA (US$ mn) 43 76 35 -54.5% KOBX (US$ mn) 55 64 60 -5.7% TOTAL(US$ mn) 436 646 411 -36.4% KOBX 55 64 60 -5.7% TOTAL Companies 436 646 411 -36.4% Source: TOTAL 436 646 411 -36.4% Source: Companies Source: Companies

FIGURE 51. STABLE MARKET SHARE OF SMALL AND NEW PLAYERS FIGURE 51. and STABLE MARKET SHARE OF SMALL AND NEW PLAYERS Small new players' Excavator Market share in Indonesia FIGURE 51. STABLE MARKET SHARE OF SMALL AND NEW PLAYERS Small and Apr'12 new players' Excavator Market share in Indonesia to Mar'13 Apr'13 to Dec'13 Chg (%) Small and new players' Excavator Market share in Indonesia Apr'12 to Mar'13 to Dec'13 (%) Volvo 4.10% Apr'13 3.30% Chg Apr'12 to Mar'13 Apr'13 to Dec'13 Chg (%)(0.80) Volvo 4.10% 3.30% (0.80) Hyundai 3.50% 4.10% 0.60 Volvo 4.10% 3.30% (0.80) Hyundai 3.50% 4.10% 0.60 Sumitomo 3.40% 3.10% (0.30) Hyundai 3.50% 4.10% 0.60 Sumitomo 3.40% 3.10% (0.30) Doosan 2.20% 2.60% 0.40 Sumitomo 3.40% 3.10% (0.30) Doosan 2.20% 2.60% 0.40 JCB 0.50% 0.50% 0.00 Doosan 2.20% 2.60% 0.40 JCB 0.50% 0.50% 0.00 Liugong 0.10% 0.50% 0.40 JCB 0.50% 0.50% 0.00 Liugong 0.10% 0.50% 0.40 Source: Various sources Liugong 0.10% 0.50% 0.40 Source: Various sources Source: Various sources

FIGURE 52. GOVERNMENT CAPITAL SPENDING TENDS TO ESCALATE IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS FIGURE 52. GOVERNMENT SPENDING TENDS TO ESCALATE IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS THE NEW PRESIDENT WANTCAPITAL TO SHOW HIS CONTRIBUTION TO THE NATION. FIGURE 52. GOVERNMENT CAPITAL SPENDING TENDS TO ESCALATE IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS THE NEW PRESIDENT WANT TO SHOW HIS CONTRIBUTION TO THE NATION. Government capital spending - APBNTO 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004NATION. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014** THE NEW PRESIDENT WANT SHOW2000 HIS CONTRIBUTION TO THE Government capital spending - APBN Government capital spending - APBN

1999 1999

2000 2000

2001 2001

2002 2002

2003 2003

2004 2004

2005 2005

2006 2006

2007 2007

2008 2008

2009 2009

2010 2010

2011 2011

INITIAL budget (APBN) - in Rp tn - (a) INITIAL budget (APBN) - in Rp tn - (a) REVISED budget(APBN) (APBN--in P)Rp - intnRp- (a) tn - (b) INITIAL budget REVISED budget (APBN - P) - in Rp tn - (b) REVISED budget (APBN - P) - in Rp tn - (b)

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

26 26 26 26 26

44 44 39 44 39 39

52 52 47 52 47 47

65 65 66 65 66 66

71 71 72 71 72 72

43 43 55 43 55 55

63 63 70 63 70 70

73 73 72 73 72 72

95 95 79 95 79 79

72 72 73 72 73 73

82 82 95 82 95 95

136 136 141 136 141 141

152 152 176 152 176 176

184 184 193 184 193 193

230 230 230 230 230

Diff - in Rp tn - (a) - (b) Diff - in Rp tn - (a) - (b) % Diff Diff - in Rp tn - (a) - (b) % Diff % Diff

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

(0) (0) -1% (0) -1% -1%

(5) (5) -10% (5) -10% -10%

(5) (5) -9% (5) -9% -9%

1 1 2% 1 2% 2%

1 1 1% 1 1% 1%

12 12 27% 12 27% 27%

7 7 11% 7 11% 11%

(1) (1) -2% (1) -2% -2%

(16) (16) -17% (16) -17% -17%

2 2 2% 2 2% 2%

13 13 16% 13 16% 16%

5 5 4% 5 4% 4%

24 24 16% 24 16% 16%

8 8 4% 8 4% 4%

0%0% 0%

N/A N/A N/A N/A -56% N/A -56% -56%

26 26 100% 26 100% 38% 100% 38% 38%

42 42 106% 42 106% 61% 106% 61% 61%

37 37 79% 37 79% -10% 79% -10% -10%

69 69 105% 69 105% 86% 105% 86% 86%

62 62 86% 62 86% -11% 86% -11% -11%

33 33 60% 33 60% -47% 60% -47% -47%

55 55 79% 55 79% 67% 79% 67% 67%

64 64 90% 64 90% 17% 90% 17% 17%

73 73 92% 73 92% 13% 92% 13% 13%

76 76 103% 76 103% 4% 103% 4% 4%

80 80 84% 80 84% 6% 84% 6% 6%

118 118 84% 118 84% 47% 84% 47% 47%

145 145 82% 145 82% 23% 82% 23% 23%

161 161 84% 161 84% 11% 84% 11% 11%

192 192 84% 192 84% 19% 84% 19% 19%

Realization - Rp tn Realization - Rp tn % to REVISED budget Realization - Rp tn % to REVISED budget realization % to REVISEDgrowth budget % realization growth Ministry %Source: realization growthof Finance

Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance

2012 2013* 2014** 2012 2013* 2014**

Plantation (Overweight): Palm oil supply disruption by 4Q14 Plantation Plantation (Overweight): (Overweight): Palm Palm oil oil supply supply disruption disruption by by 4Q14 4Q14 by Hariyanto Wijaya by by Hariyanto Hariyanto Wijaya Wijaya

FIGURE 53. PLANTATION SECTOR VALUATION TABLE FIGURE 53. PLANTATION SECTOR VALUATION TABLE PER(x) Last Target Mkt. Cap FIGURE 53. PLANTATION SECTOR VALUATION TABLE Ticker Rating

Ticker Ticker AALI AALI BWPT AALI BWPT LSIP BWPT LSIP SGRO LSIP SGRO SGRO

Rating Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy

Last Target Cap Price Price Mkt. (Rpbn) Last Target Mkt. Cap Price Price (Rpbn) 27,750 43,699 Price 25,000 Price (Rpbn) 27,750 43,699 1,315 25,000 1,750 5,861 27,750 25,000 43,699 1,315 1,750 5,861 2,250 2,200 15,351 1,315 1,750 5,861 2,250 2,200 15,351 1,995 3,000 3,771 2,250 2,200 15,351 1,995 3,000 3,771 1,995 3,000 3,771

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Mandiri Sekuritas

Page 32 32 of of 60 60 Page Page 32 of 60 Page 32 of 60

PER(x)2015 2014 PER(x) 2014 2015 15.4 12.6 2014 2015 15.4 12.6 14.7 9.4 15.4 12.6 14.7 9.4 13.4 10.5 14.7 9.4 13.4 10.5 12.0 8.6 13.4 10.5 12.0 8.6 12.0 8.6

EV/EBITDA(x) EV/EBITDA(x) 2014 2015 EV/EBITDA(x) 2014 2015 9.1 7.3 2014 2015 9.1 7.3 10.0 6.8 9.1 7.3 10.0 6.8 7.1 5.4 10.0 6.8 7.1 5.4 6.2 4.9 7.1 5.4 6.2 4.9 6.2 4.9

P/BV(x) P/BV(x)2015 2014 P/BV(x) 2014 2015 3.7 3.2 2014 2015 3.7 3.2 2.3 1.9 3.7 3.2 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2

Div. Yield (%) EPS Gr.(%) Div. Yield2015 (%) EPS Gr.(%) 2014 2014 2015 Div. Yield (%) EPS Gr.(%) 2014 2015 2014 22.2% 2015 2.2% 3.5% 57.9% 2014 2015 2014 2015 2.2% 3.5% 64.0% 57.9% 22.2% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 3.5% 57.9% 55.8% 22.2% 0.8% 1.4% 49.4% 64.0% 55.8% 2.0% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4% 64.0% 27.1% 55.8% 2.0% 3.0% 49.4% 27.1% 2.2% 40.4% 2.0% 3.0% 164.3% 49.4% 27.1% 2.2% 3.0% 164.3% 40.4% 2.2% 3.0% 164.3% 40.4%

ROE(%) ROE(%)2015 2014 ROE(%) 2014 27.3% 2015 26.3% 2014 2015 26.3% 27.3% 16.9% 26.3% 22.2% 27.3% 16.9% 18.4% 22.2% 16.4% 16.9% 22.2% 16.4% 18.4% 11.3% 18.4% 14.4% 16.4% 11.3% 14.4% 11.3% 14.4%

Likelihood of El Nino in 2H14 is more than 70%. In 8 April 2014 report, Australian Likelihood of 2H14 more 70%. 8 2014 report, Bureau of Meteorology estimates greater thanIn chance an ElAustralian Niño will Likelihood of El El Nino Nino in in 2H14 is isthere moreis than than 70%. In70% 8 April April 2014that report, Australian Bureau of Meteorology estimates there is greater than 70% chance that an El develop in 2H14. Meanwhile, in 7 April 2014 report, US Weather forecaster predicts El Bureau of Meteorology estimates there is greater than 70% chance that an El Niño Niño will will develop in 2H14. Meanwhile, in 7 April 2014 report, US Weather forecaster predicts Nino commences in April-June 2014. El Nino associated with below normal rainfall develop in 2H14. Meanwhile, in 7 April 2014 report, US Weather forecaster predicts El El Nino in 2014. El Nino associated with rainfall acrosscommences South East Asia, which should curb production andbelow boost normal CPO price. Nino commences in April-June April-June 2014. Elpalm Ninooil associated with below normal rainfall across across South South East East Asia, Asia, which which should should curb curb palm palm oil oil production production and and boost boost CPO CPO price. price. Please see see important important disclosure disclosure at at the the back back of of this this report report Please Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Supply disruption by 4Q14 => CPO price would continue its uptrend by 4Q14. Palm oil products represent around 39% of world consumed edible oils. Meanwhile, TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk unusual drought has occurred from Jan’14 until Mar’14 in Malaysia and Indonesia. Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia (Indonesia and Malaysia’s palm oilSales) production represents 85% of world palm oil Industri Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt production). Oil palm plantation requires at least 100 mm of rainfall per month to Industriitspembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun preserve production telah potential. Water deficit due to dry condition has time lag effect onterakhir, palm oildimana production, some 4 - 6 months (bunch -12 months (floral jumlahi.e.aset bertumbuh dengan tingkatfailure), CAGR1021.93%, sehingga pada abortion) and 22 – 24 months (sex differentiation). The impact of water deficit during kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Jan’14 and Mar’14 in Malaysia and Indonesia should manifest by 4Q14 by curbing CPO pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan production and boosting CPO price. pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 1Q14 earnings LSIP should beat25.77% consensus earnings expectation. As dengan tingkat expectation: CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, dan 12.25% of 14 April 2014, consensus estimates LSIP’s revenue and net income grow by 12.9% yoy and 17.3%yoy, respectively. We think LSIP should easily beat consensus FY14F Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat growth expectation considering: 1) 1Q14 domestic CPO price increase by 34% yoy and dilihat 2) pada I. 4%qoq. we Tampilan estimate LSIP’s FY14F production growth between 5%-10%. Risks to our call: 1) Lower than expectation India and China palm oil consumption. 2) TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR Indonesia Biodiesel mandatory plan is not well executed. Rp miliar 200,000 3,500 FIGURE 54. US WEATHER FORECASTER PREDICTS EL NINO COMMENCES IN APRIL-JUNE 2014 3,000 150,000

2,500 2,000

100,000

1,500 1,000

50,000

500 0

0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Total Asset

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Anjak Piutang

Kartu Kredit



Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat Source: NOAA dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanFIGURE 55. MOST OF MALAYSIA REGIONS UNUSUAL DROUGHT IN JAN’14 perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dariEXPERIENCED dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi AND FEB’14 sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan.

Source: Malaysian Meteorological Department




FIGURE 56. MOST OF SUMATRA AND SOME OF KALIMANTAN REGIONS EXPERIENCED UNUSUAL DROUGHT IN JAN’14 & FEB’14

Source: BMKG

FIGURE 57. CASE STUDY: WATER DEFICIT HAS 6 MONTHS TIME-LAG IMPACT

Source: MPOB (CPO production), Mandiri Sekuritas analysis



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Property sector – Neutral – Stick with the NAV boosters

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk by Liliana Bambang Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Multifinance Pembiayaan +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) FIGUREGeneral: 58. PROPERTY SECTOR VALUATION TABLE Ticker

Rating

APLN

Buy

PER(x) EV/EBITDA(x) P/BV(x) Div. Yield (%) EPS Gr.(%) ROE(%) Last Target Mkt. Cap Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Price Price (Rpbn) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 269

340

terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 6.0 5.2 6.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 3.1% 3.3% -13.6% 16.6% 14.9% 15.4% kuartal III 6.2 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 9,914 7.3 7.8 6.0 1.6 1.3 3.9% 4.7% 54.4% 17.8% 23.7% 23.2% pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang22.0% berarti, 5,808 6.6 5.4 11.2 8.9 0.9 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 39.8% 15.0%sedangkan 15.7% konsumen, sewa guna kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 26,945 pembiayaan 12.5 10.6 10.8 8.9 2.3 usaha 2.0 dan 2.5%kartu 2.0% -17.5% 17.7% 19.7% 20.0% 25.77% dan 12.25% 15,924 dengan 13.2 tingkat 10.5 CAGR 9.6 masing-masing 7.7 2.2 24.41%, 1.8 1.1% 1.5% 33.1% 25.7% 17.7% 19.0% 5,515

ASRI

Neutral

555

680

BKSL

Neutral

185

200

BSDE

Buy

1,540

2,000

CTRA

Neutral

1,050

880

CTRS

Buy

2,285

4,000

JRPT

Buy

850

1,000

LPCK

Buy

7,650

9,850

MDLN

Neutral

453

480

5,677

PWON

Buy

345

430

16,615

SMRA

Buy

1,070

1,260

15,435

4,522

8.6

11,688 Kinerja 16.1 5,324

6.6 12.2 industri

3.8

1.7

13.4 9.6 pembiayaan

5.5

3.8 dalam

6.6 5.0 dilihat pada 6.1 Tampilan I.

3.9

2.0

1.4

2.1%

2.7%

27.8%

30.3%

21.6%

23.4%

1.0% 0.9% hingga 32.8% September 32.0% 25.9% lima3.0tahun terakhir 200827.1% dapat 1.5

0.0%

0.0%

8.7%

36.3%

3.3

6.2

3.4

5.3

0.9

0.8

0.0%

0.0% -30.7% -46.3%

36.5%

30.8%

28.6%

13.4%

11.1

7.9

8.3

6.2

3.3

2.4

1.6%

2.1%

32.0%

41.4%

33.3%

35.3%

11.2

9.4

8.1

2.5

2.1

0.0%

0.0%

2.6%

22.3%

21.5%

20.4%

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR 13.6


Rp miliar

•

200,000 Discount to NAV unlikely to narrow further. At this juncture, we think 3,500 it would be difficult for some companies to trade into 40-50% discount to NAV range 3,000 for these reasons; 1) Unlike the past few years, this year the companies are unlikely to 150,000 beat its own marketing sales target, 2) ASP increase has been flattening. 2,500 Hence, we prefer companies that have NAV boosters or companies that have good 2,000 100,000 branding and below replacement cost (for value). 1,500

•

Stick with companies that have good branding and solid products. At1,000 current 50,000 juncture, we prefer companies with good branding and solid products. Real 500 market currently avoids second tier developers. Hence, companies that has solid 0 1Q14 marketing sales that are mainly in-line, with most0 of the branding have companies booking of its target FY14F. 2007 BSDE and JRPT are higher 200315-20% 2004 2005 for2006 Oct-08 compared to its peers, as it book 29% and 22% of its FY14F marketing sales target Total Asset Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha due to higher commercial land sale in 1Q14. Anjak Piutang

•

Kartu Kredit

Picks: SMRA and PWON, CTRS and LPCK. PWON has potential JVs in the immediate term, which could add to its NAV numbers. We like SMRA, due to story Sumber: Bank Indonesia of new townships in FY15F (Bandung and Gunung Geulis). We also like LPCK due to the company’s attractive valuation and solid customer base, as its customers are Salah satuend karakteristik darialso industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat mostly users. LPCK would add further JV with landbank owners on the dengan lembaga perbankan. ini due dibuktikan dari datavaluation, statistik Bank Indonesia back of its estate. We likeHal CTRS to its attractive as CTRS is belowper replacement September 2008cost. yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi FIGURE 59. 11% PROPERTY MARKETING SALES lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas sebesar dan pinjaman-pinjaman % of Rp bn 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 yang 4Q13 y/y q/q adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan cukup1Q14F besar atas FY14F perusahaan-perusahaan APLN n/a pembiayaan 1,719 terhadap 1,461 perbankan. 866 Tampilan2,307 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan CTRA 2,852 2,638 1,992 1,459 1,361 14% -52% -7% perusahaan pembiayaan. ASRI

SMRA LPCK* BSDE

1,200

1,931

1,169

500

850

17%

-29%

70%

360

1,490

1,382

494

626

16%

74%

27%

551

657

216

274

350

15%

-36%

28%

2,599

1,596

2,286

868

1,765

29%

-32%

103%

BKSL*

507

510

742

440

230

9%

-55%

-48%

MDLN

648

647

284

1,275

448

11%

-31%

-65%

PWON*

540

660

861

942

480

16%

-11%

-49%

JRPT

482

566

382

374

430

22%

-11%

15%

Total

11,459

12,157

10,179

8,932

6,540

*Mandiri sekuritas estimates, as companies have not released its 1Q14 marketing sales Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas




Poultry Sector (Neutral) – Waiting for the egg to hatch by Herman Koeswanto FIGURE 60. POULTRY SECTOR VALUATION TABLE PER(x)

EV/EBITDA(x)

P/BV(x)

Div. Yield (%)

EPS Gr.(%)

ROE(%)

Ticker

Rating


2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

CPIN

Neutral

4,215

4,100

69,222

23.1

19.2

16.1

13.8

5.7

4.6

1.0%

1.2%

18.3%

20.1%

27.0%

26.4%

JPFA

Neutral

1,430

1,580

15,014

16.7

13.5

9.7

8.6

2.7

2.4

1.3%

1.9%

52.0%

23.1%

17.6%

18.9%

MAIN

Buy

3,370

4,000

5,712

15.7

11.5

11.4

8.3

4.7

3.3

0.9%

1.3%

47.6%

36.7%

34.7%

33.6%


2014 Outlook. We view the current oversupply in DOC and broiler market is more on the short-term risk rather than structural. Based on our channel check and discussion with several feed players, the oversupply in broiler and DOC market (partly due to JPFA’s aggressive commercial farming expansion) should stabilize in 5-6 months until the chick culling activities stop before entering new equilibrium with improving purchasing power. Overall we expect stronger FY14F NPAT growth mostly driven by forex effect, yet in term of core profit not significant changes compare to last year following higher production cost as corn and soybean prices potentially to rise in 2H14. 1Q14 results preview. Within our coverage, we view that most of poultry stocks potentially to record below than expected 1Q14 results due to higher production cost, carried over higher inventory cost from previous quarter following IDR depreciation and feed price hike. While in early year 2014, DOC price and broiler chicken price were weak due to severe floods in some area and Mt Kelud eruption plus oversupply market. Yet from forex perspective we expect JPFA and MAIN will benefit the most from IDR appreciation. But among others, CPIN likely to have less volatile earnings and better 1Q14 results driven by its growing and stable downstream processed chicken business. Stock picks. Once the negatives come off, we expect pure poultry producer like MAIN would benefit the most given its higher operating leverage with the fastest top line growth in the industry. In addition, MAIN as our top pick also has the most undemanding valuation. We like CPIN for its earnings stability and quality yet valuation is not cheap. While JPFA’s aggressive commercial farming expansion could be quite costly in short-term but worth for potential long-term growth and rerating.

Coal sector (Neutral) – A difficult year by Ariyanto Kurniawan FIGURE 61. COAL MINING SECTOR VALUATION TABLE Ticker

Rating


ADRO

Neutral

1,010

HRUM

U/R

ITMG

Neutral

PTBA

U/R

1,050

32,306

PER(x)

EV/EBITDA(x)

P/BV(x)

Div. Yield (%)

EPS Gr.(%)

ROE(%)

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

12.1

9.9

5.0

4.2

1.1

1.0

3.4%

4.1%

5.8%

22.2%

9.6%

11.0%

2,160

3,200

5,832

7.0

5.4

3.7

2.9

1.6

1.4

7.8%

10.3%

53.9%

31.7%

24.3%

27.4%

25,325

29,150

28,615

10.8

9.3

5.6

4.7

3.0

2.7

7.4%

8.6%

10.6%

16.5%

29.1%

31.0%

9,750

12,100

22,469

10.5

7.9

7.1

4.9

2.2

1.9

4.8%

6.3%

19.9%

32.6%

22.8%

26.1%


Still weak coal price outlook. Newcastle spot coal prices have stayed at below US$80/ton since late January 2014 due to a combination of higher supply and slower demand growth in China. Year to date coal prices have fallen by 14% to US$73/ton after 7%y-o-y drop in 2013. Weak coal price outlook is due to a combination of weak demand and acute oversupply. Massive supply cut from key supplier such as Indonesia and Australia, which we haven’t seen so far, is necessary to support price.



Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 Weak earnings will continue this year. We expect weak earnings to continue to this

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI year due Atosubsidiary still weak coalMandiri price(Persero) outlook. Mandiri Sekuritas of PT Bank Tbk We also see potential downgrade to our and forecast price stay at below US$80/ton. However, we do not expect Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, consensus Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36if- coal 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Industri Multifinance / 5701 Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), 21 527 (Debt Sales) material impact on +62 share price performance as weak earnings is already anticipated and

coal stock share price have underperformed the index by >20%. Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Focus on cost cutting. global coal prices weaken, cost-cutting initiatives through terakhir, dimana jumlahAsaset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada lowering stripping ratio (SR) become industry key focus in order to offset declining kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, margins from lower prices.tidak The strategy is so pertumbuhan far effective to yang cut production cost by pembiayaan anjakcoal piutang mengalami berarti, sedangkan up to 10% as mining cost accounts for 50-60% of production cost. However, this pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan strategy is unsustainable in the medium term as it would require coal miners to change CAGR dan 12.25% itsdengan miningtingkat plan and give masing-masing up some of the24.41%, reserve 25.77% with higher SR. Prefer to wait until price recovery is seen. ITMG is our preference for earnings quality Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat and high dividend yield despite of our Neutral call. Maintain Neutral for PTBA, HRUM, dilihat pada Tampilan I. and ADRO

FIGURE 63.PEMBIAYAAN COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE DESPITE LOW TAMPILAN KINERJA INDUSTRI DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR FIGURE 62. PRODUCTION COSTS HAVE DECLINED ON1.LOWER PRICE SR Rp miliar 90

200,000

80

25

3,500

20

3,000

150,000

70

2,500

15

60

100,000

50

50,000

40

0

30

HRUM

PTBA

ADRO

BUMI

1,500

10

1,000 5

500 0

0

2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2003 ITMG

2,000

Total Asset

1Q11 2Q11 2005 3Q11 4Q11 2006 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2004 2007 4Q12 Oct-08

Pembiayaan Konsumen ITMG HRUM PTBA

ADRO

Sewa Guna Usaha BUMI

Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit Source: Company

Source: Company


Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan perusahaan pembiayaan.



926

8,720 912

7,930 898

7,140 884 2

6,350 870 0

Price


EPS Cons (RHS)

1,884

BBTN

1,710

1,536

1,188

EPS Cons (RHS)

PE (x)

220

208

1,362

196

184

1,014

172

840

160

PE (x)

PE (x)

Apr-14

9,510

Dec-13

940

Aug-13

10,300

Apr-13

Price PE (x)

8

6

4

Jan-12 Jul-12

Apr-12

Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-13

10

Apr-13

BBRI

Jan-13

12

Apr-13

Rp Oct-12

Mean

Oct-12

Jul-12

954

Jan-12

BBRI PE (x)

Dec-12

Rp

EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-12

11,090 PE (x)

Aug-12

Price

Apr-12

460 Jul-11

3,450 Oct-11

472

Jul-11

3,870

Oct-11

484

Dec-11

4,290

Jan-11

496 PE (x)

Apr-11

4,710

Jan-11

508

Jan-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

PE (x)

Apr-11

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Aug-11

5,130

Jul-10

520

Oct-10

5,550

Jul-10

532

Oct-10

BBNI

Apr-11

Rp

Jan-10

5,970

Apr-10

Price

Jan-10

0

Apr-10

620

Dec-10

7,300 Jul-09

5

Oct-09

630

Jul-09

8,120

Oct-09

8,940 640

Jul-09

9,760

Oct-09

650

Aug-10

660

Apr-10

10,580

Jan-09

670

Apr-09

11,400

Jan-09

BBCA

Apr-09

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14

Rp

Apr-09


12,220

Jan-09


EPS CONS 2014 VS STOCK PRICE

Dec-09


Strategy| |1414April April2014 2014 Strategy

Appendix 1. EPS Forecast and 12m Roll Fwd PER

Rp

PER 12m ROLLING FORWARD VS LONG TERM AVE.

25

BBCA

20

15

10

Mean

Rp

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

BBNI

Mean

Rp

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

BBTN

Mean


Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 PER 12m ROLLING FORWARD VS LONG TERM AVE.


Rp BDMN TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

852 740

140

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)

BJTM

50,000 0

564

84

EPS Cons (RHS)


Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

PE (x)

Apr-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

400

Apr-12

3,800

Jan-12

418

Jul-11

4,230

Oct-11

436

Price

Sewa Guna Usaha

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Jan-11

4,660

Jan-13

Jul-12

454


5,090

Apr-11

5,520

Jul-10

5,950

Oct-08

Kartu Kredit

Oct-10

Rp 6,380

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Jan-10

Price

2006

pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi BTPN sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) BTPN 508 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 18 490 16 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 14 472 perusahaan pembiayaan.


300

2005

Oct-12

344

1,000 0

BJTM

PE (x)

Jul-09

388

Mean

1,500 500

Jan-09

432

2,000

Rp

Apr-09

476

2,500

PE (x)

10 2003 2004 9 78 8 Total Asset 7 Anjak Piutang 6 72 5 4 Sumber: Bank Indonesia 3 66 2 1 60 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri

520

3,000

Apr-10

Rp

Jul-10


100,000

148

Apr-14

150,000

Jan-14

964

3,500

Oct-13

156

Jul-13

164

Apr-13

200,000

Jan-13

1,076

Jul-12

Rp miliar

Oct-12

1,188

PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR

Apr-12

172

20 INDUSTRI 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Jan-12

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA

BJBR

PE (x)

Jul-11

180

Oct-11

1,412 1,300

Jan-10

industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir 2008 dapat PE (x) hingga September Mean dilihat pada Tampilan I. Rp

Apr-11

BJBR

Rp

Jan-09

EPS Cons Kinerja (RHS)

Price

Apr-10

dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%


3,550

Jul-09

4,130

Oct-09

4,710

Jan-11

5,290

Oct-09

5,870

Oct-10

6,450

BDMN 600 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 20 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 (Debt Sales) 570 21 527/ 5701 18 16 540 telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Industri pembiayaan 14 terakhir, dimana 510 jumlah aset12 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 10 kuartal III 2008 480 mencapai 8Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 6 pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 4 450 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa2 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 420 0 Apr-09

Rp

7,030

Mean


SMGR

Price


EPS Cons (RHS)

EPS Cons (RHS) PE (x)

1,160 Rp

PE (x)

19,000

1,130

17,450

1,100

15,900

1,070

14,350

1,040

10

12,800

1,010

5

11,250

980

0

PE (x) Mean

25

SMGR

20

15

Jan-14 Apr-14

0

Jan-14

1,480

Apr-14

17,750 Jul-13

5

Oct-13

1,518

Jul-13

19,590

Oct-13

10

Jan-13

1,556

Apr-13

21,430

Jan-13

1,594

Apr-13

23,270

Jul-12

1,632

Oct-12

25,110

Oct-12

1,670

Jan-12

26,950

Apr-12

PE (x)

Jul-12

Rp PE (x)

Jan-12

20,550 Jul-11

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

PE (x)

Apr-12

1,708

Jul-11

INTP

Oct-11

28,790

Jul-11

Price EPS Cons (RHS)

Oct-11

Price Jan-11

140 Apr-11

2,050

Jan-11

158 PE (x)

Apr-11

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Jan-11

2,436 Jan-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

PE (x)

Apr-11

2,822 176

Jul-10

194

Oct-10

3,208

Jul-10

212

Oct-10

3,594

Jul-10

3,980

Oct-10

230

Jan-10

SMCB

Apr-10

Rp

Jan-10

4,366

Apr-10

0

Jan-10

90

Apr-10

540 Jul-09

5

Oct-09

100

Jul-09

622

Oct-09

704 110

Jul-09

786

Oct-09

120

Jul-09

130

Oct-09

868

Jan-09

140

Apr-09

950

Jan-09

1,032

Apr-09

Price

Jan-09


PNBN

Apr-09


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09



Rp


25

PNBN

20

15

10

Mean

Rp

35

SMCB

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Mean

Rp

25

INTP

20

15

Mean




Rp ADHI TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp

2,192

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA

1,920

112

1,648

Rp miliar

1,376

200,000

832 560

0

3,256

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

80

0

2,000 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 PE (x)

500

2003

35

2004

15


10

108

2006

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

25

116

1,376

2005

30

Anjak Piutang20

0

WIKA

PE (x)

140

2,128 1,752

1,000

Mean

Rp

124


Kartu Kredit

5

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-09

Apr-09

100 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi WSKT sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) WSKT 60 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 30 56 perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan pembiayaan terhadap 25 perusahaan pembiayaan. 52

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 916

Jan-11

2,500

Total Asset

1,050

Apr-11

5

2,504

Rp

Jul-10

3,000

132

1,184

Oct-10

10

88

1,500

2,880

Price

Jan-10

3,500

50,000

EPS Cons (RHS)

WIKA

1,000

Apr-10

15


100,000


20

104

150,000

Rp

Jul-09

25 INDUSTRI

96

1,104

PTPP

PE (x)

120

Price

Oct-09


PTPP

Rp

Jan-09


Price

Apr-09



Apr-13

860

Jan-13

1,468

Apr-13

2,076

Jul-12

2,684

Jul-12

3,292

Oct-12

3,900

Oct-12

ADHI 290 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 20 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 18 274 16 Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 14 258 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset12 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 10 kuartal III 2008 242 mencapai 8Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 6 pembiayaan anjak226piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 4 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa2 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 210 0

4,508

20

782 48

648

15 10

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


5

PE (x)

Apr-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

0

Dec-12

Apr-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

40

Mar-13

380

Jan-13

44

Dec-12

514

Mean



68,950

GGRM

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


4,296 Rp

PE (x)

63,000

4,000

57,050

3,704

25

51,100

3,408

20

45,150

3,112

39,200

2,816

33,250

2,520

PE (x)

GGRM

30

15

10

5

0

Apr-14

35

Apr-14

Mean

Jan-14

100

Jan-14

630 Oct-13

108

Oct-13

938

Jul-13

116

Apr-13

1,246

Jul-13

124

Apr-13

1,554

Jan-13

1,862

Jan-13

132

Jul-12

2,170 PE (x)

Oct-12

140

Oct-12

AISA

Jan-12

PE (x)

Jul-12

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-12

Jan-12

Apr-14

Jan-14

9-Apr-14

8-Apr-14

11-Apr-14

10-Apr-14

Mean

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

250

Jan-12

Price PE (x)

Apr-12

4,450 Jul-11

272

Oct-11

4,940

Jul-11

294

Oct-11

5,430

Jul-11

20

Oct-11

316

Jan-11

25

5,920

Apr-11

338

Jan-11

2,478 PE (x)

Apr-11

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Jan-11

Price

PE (x)

Apr-11

6,410

Jul-10

360

Oct-10

6,900

Jul-10

382

Oct-10

JSMR

Jul-10

7,390

Oct-10

30

Jan-10

Price 10-Apr-14

Apr-10

Rp 9-Apr-14

Jan-10

8-Apr-14

Apr-10

7-Apr-14

Jan-10

590

Apr-10

31 7-Apr-14

624

Jul-09

658

Oct-09

32

Jul-09

33

Oct-09

726

Jul-09

760

Oct-09

692

Jan-09

34

Apr-09

794

Jan-09

WTON

Apr-09


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09



Rp


20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

WTON

Rp

35

JSMR

30

15

10

5

0

Mean

Rp

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

AISA

Mean




Rp ICBP TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA 488 476

440

EPS Cons (RHS)

MYOR

01,264

2003

Total 1,196

25,236

Anjak 1,162 1,128


1,094

19,352

Asset

35

2004

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

25

Piutang20


Kartu Kredit

15 10 5

EPS Cons (RHS)


Jul-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Apr-14

Apr-13 Apr-13

Oct-13

Jan-13 Jan-13

Jul-13

Oct-12 Oct-12

Oct-13

Jul-12 Jul-12

Oct-11 Oct-11

Jan-12

Jul-11 Jul-11

Apr-12

Apr-11 Apr-11

Jan-12

Jan-11 Jan-11

Apr-12

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10 Apr-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

750

Oct-09

20,350

Jan-10

770

Oct-09

23,200

Jul-09

790

Jul-09

26,050


810

Jan-09

1,060 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi UNVR sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) UNVR 870 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 50 850 45 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 40 830 perusahaan pembiayaan. 35

28,900

Price

2006

Apr-09

31,750

2005

30

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 34,600

1,000 0

MYOR

PE (x)

28,178

Rp

Mean

1,500 500

1,230

37,450

Jan-11

PE (x)

31,120

Price

Jul-10

Jan-09

50,000 Rp

34,062

16,410

Oct-12

2,000

0


100,000

Oct-10

4,850

2,500

5

Apr-10

5,450

3,000

10

452

Jan-10

150,000

Oct-09

6,050

3,500

15

464

22,294

Jul-12

20

Apr-14

200,000

Jan-14

6,650

Jul-13

Rp miliar


25

Oct-13

7,250

30 INDUSTRI

Jul-09

7,850

INDF

PE (x)

500

Apr-09

INDF

Rp

Apr-12


8,450

Price

Jan-12


Price Rp

Oct-10


5,750

Oct-11

7,220

Jul-11

8,690

Apr-11

10,160

Jan-11

30 Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 486 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset25 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 20 kuartal III 2008 474 mencapai 15Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, pembiayaan anjak462piutang 10tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa5 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 450 0 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

11,630

Jan-09

13,100

ICBP

510 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 40 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 498 35

Apr-09

14,570

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

PE (x)

Mean



Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


1,194 Rp

38

1,080

966

36

852

34

738

624

32

510

30

PE (x)

PE (x)

Apr-14

0

Apr-14

0 Feb-14

210

Jan-14

5

Oct-13

5

Jul-13

248

Jan-14

286 10

Apr-13

324

Dec-13

15

Jan-13

PE (x)

Oct-12

362 Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

PE (x)

Jul-12

20

Apr-12

400 PE (x)

Oct-13

25

Jan-12

EPS Cons (RHS)

Oct-11

40 Jul-11

730 PE (x)

Sep-13

892

Apr-11

44

Apr-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

PE (x)

Jul-11

1,054

Apr-11

1,216

Jan-11

48

Aug-13

EPS Cons (RHS)

Jan-11

1,378

Jul-10

1,540

Oct-10

52

Jun-13

1,702

Jul-10

40

Oct-10

630 Mar-13

46

Jan-10

710

Apr-10

52

May-13

790

Jan-10

58

Jan-13

870

Jul-09

64

Oct-09

950

Apr-10

DYAN Dec-12

1,030

Apr-13

438 Jan-09

Apr-14 70

Apr-09

KLBF

Feb-13

Apr-14

Feb-14

1,110

Jul-09

ACES Jan-14

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

WIIM

Oct-09

Price

Feb-14

Rp

Jan-14

Price

Dec-13

Price

Oct-13

Rp

Sep-13


Rp

Apr-09

Rp

Aug-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Feb-13


Jan-09



Rp


18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

WIIM

Mean

Rp

40

KLBF

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Mean

Rp

25

DYAN

20

15

10

Mean

40

ACES

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Mean




Rp ERAA TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp

3,946

ERAA

334 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 30 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 (Debt Sales) 300 21 527/ 5701

3,450

25

EPS Cons (RHS)

MAPI

50,000 0

10,590

488

Apr-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Oct-13

Nov-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

May-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Sep-12

Sewa Guna Usaha

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12 Oct-12

Apr-13

Jul-12 Jul-12

Oct-11 Oct-11

Jan-12

Jul-11 Jul-11

Apr-12

Apr-11 Apr-11

Jan-12

Jan-11 Jan-11

Apr-12

Jul-10

Apr-10 Apr-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Jul-10

Oct-09

Jan-10

1,460

Oct-09

1,600

Oct-08

Kartu Kredit

Jul-09

Rp 1,740

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Jul-09

Price

2007

pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi RALS sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) RALS 90 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 30 84 perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan pembiayaan terhadap 25 perusahaan pembiayaan. 78


4,350

2006

Jan-09

5,390

2005

Apr-09

6,430

1,000 0

MAPI

PE (x)

Jan-09

7,470

1,500 500

Apr-09

8,510

Mean

Rp

45 2004 450 2003 40 Total 412 Asset 35 30 Anjak 374 Piutang25 20 336 15 Sumber: Bank Indonesia 10 298 5 260 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri

9,550

Jun-12

PE (x)

Oct-10

Rp

Oct-09

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Price

2,000

0

Jan-14

530

100,000

2,500

5

Apr-14

2,500

3,000

10

Oct-13

5,040

538

Jul-13

150,000

3,500

15

Apr-13

7,580

20

Jan-13

546

25

Jul-12

554

Oct-12

200,000

Apr-12

10,120

Jan-12

Rp miliar

Jul-11

12,660


30

Oct-11

562

35 INDUSTRI

Apr-11

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA

LPPF

PE (x)

Jan-11

570

Jul-10

17,740 15,200

Aug-12


Oct-10

LPPF

May-12


Price Rp

Dec-11


970

Mar-12

1,466

Apr-10

1,962

Jan-10

2,458

Jan-12

266 telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Industri pembiayaan 20 terakhir, dimana 232 jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 15 kuartal III 2008 198 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 10 pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 164 5 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 130 0 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

2,954

20

1,320 72

1,180

15 10

66

900

60


1,040

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


5 0

PE (x)

Mean


Price

8,536

IMAS

Price


EPS Cons (RHS)


810

7,900

730

7,264

650

6,628

570

5,992

490

5,356

410

4,720

330

PE (x)

PE (x)

40

IMAS

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 Apr-14

Rp

Apr-14

Mean

Jan-14

500 Oct-13

5,300

Jan-14

524

Oct-13

5,900

Jul-13

548

Apr-13

6,500

Jul-13

572

Apr-13

7,100

Jan-13

596

Oct-12

7,700

Jan-13

620

Oct-12

8,300 PE (x)

Jul-12

644

Apr-12

PE (x)

Jul-12

ASII

Jan-12

8,900 Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

PE (x)

May-12

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Oct-11

Price

Feb-12

60

Nov-11

360 Jan-13

68

Jul-11

454

Apr-11

548 76 PE (x)

Aug-11

84

Apr-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

PE (x)

May-11

642

Oct-12

92

Jan-11

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Feb-11

736

Jul-10

830

Oct-10

100

Sep-10

TELE

Nov-10

Rp Oct-12

30

Jul-12

500

Jan-10

34

Apr-10

610

Jun-10

720

Mar-10

38

Aug-12

830

Apr-12

42

Jul-09

940

Oct-09

46

Sep-09

1,050

Jun-12

1,160

Dec-09

924

Jan-12

Price

Jan-09


RANC

Apr-09


Rp

Jun-09



Mar-09



Rp


45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

RANC

Mean

Rp

14

TELE

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Mean

Rp

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

ASII

Mean




Rp HEXA TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA 2,350

25 INDUSTRI

Jan-14


AALI

PE (x)

1,820

2003

Total 1,728

22,060

Anjak 1,636

16,220

Asset

25

2004

10

1,452

5

Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Sewa Guna Usaha

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Oct-09

1,360 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi BWPT sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) BWPT 214 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 30 190 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 25 166 perusahaan pembiayaan. Oct-10

1,372

Oct-08

Kartu Kredit

Jan-11

1,580

2007

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Piutang15

1,544

2006

Apr-11

Rp 1,788

2005

20

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Price

1,000 0

AALI

PE (x)

24,980


1,500 500

01,912

27,900

13,300

Mean

Rp

30,820

19,140

Apr-11

50,000

Apr-09

Rp

Jan-09

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 EPS Cons (RHS)

Jan-13

2,000 Apr-13

0

100,000

Jul-12

1,410

14,400

Oct-12

2,500 Jan-12

5

Apr-12

1,598

16,220

Jul-11

3,000

Oct-11

10

150,000

Jan-11

1,786

18,040

Jul-10

3,500

Oct-10

15

Jan-10

200,0001,974

Apr-10

19,860

Jul-09

20

Oct-09

Rp miliar 2,162

Apr-09

21,680

Price

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

UNTR

PE (x)

2,538

25,320 23,500

Apr-11


Apr-14

UNTR

Rp

Jan-09


Price

Jul-10



2,970

Oct-10

4,216

Jan-10

5,462

Apr-10

6,708

Jul-09

7,954

Oct-09

9,200

HEXA 1,210 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 18 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 1,070 16 14 930 Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 12 terakhir, dimana790 jumlah aset10 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008650mencapai 8Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 6 pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 4 510 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa2 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 370 0 Apr-09

Rp

10,446

20

142

956

118

748

94

5

540

70

0

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


15

PE (x)

Jul-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Oct-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

10

Oct-09


1,164

Mean


200 40

Price

Price

Page 48 of 60 Page 48 of 60 EPS Cons (RHS)

1,274

ASRI


Rp

118

PE (x)

1,130

110

986

102

842

94

698

86

10

554

78

5

410

70

0

PE (x) Apr-14

46

Jan-14

264

Apr-14

328

Dec-13

52

Sep-13

392

Jul-13

58

Oct-13

456

Jun-13

520 PE (x)

Jan-13

64

Feb-13

APLN PE (x)

Apr-13

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Jul-12

584 Jan-12

SGRO

Jul-10

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jul-13

Rp Apr-13

Mean

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

PE (x)

Oct-12

Price

Nov-12

120

Jan-12

1,540

Apr-12

166

Jul-11

1,908

Oct-11

212

Jul-12

2,276 PE (x)

Jul-11

258

PE (x)

Oct-11

2,644

Jan-11

304

Apr-11

3,012

Apr-12

350

Jan-11

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-11

3,380

Jul-10

396

Oct-10

SGRO

Dec-11

Rp

Oct-10

0

Sep-11

110

Jul-10

1,000 Jan-10

5

Apr-10

148

Jan-10

1,400

Apr-10

10

Apr-10

186

Jun-11

1,800

Jan-10

15

Jul-09

224

Oct-09

2,200

Jul-09

262

Oct-09

2,600

Oct-09

300

Feb-11

3,748 Jan-09

3,000

Apr-09

338

Jul-09

Price

Jan-09

3,400

Apr-09


LSIP

Nov-10


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09



Rp


25

LSIP

20

Mean

Rp

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

APLN

Mean

25

ASRI

20

15

Mean




Rp BKSL TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA 120

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)

CTRA

Rp

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

2003

40

2004

2005

35


58

798

2006

2007

30

Pembiayaan Konsumen

25

Kartu Kredit

Anjak Piutang 66

Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

1,000 0

CTRA

PE (x)

Total Asset 74

1,500 500

90 82

1,194

Mean

Rp

1,590 1,392

Jul-12

Jan-09

PE (x)

Oct-12

2,000 Jan-12

0 Apr-12

80

50,000 0

1,788

996

Apr-10

2,500


100,000

5

Jul-11

950

3,000

Oct-11

1,200

10

90

Jan-11

150,000

Apr-11

1,450

3,500

Apr-14

100

15

Jul-10

200,000

20

110

Oct-10

1,700


Jan-10

Rp miliar

25 INDUSTRI

Apr-10

1,950

BSDE

PE (x)

130

Jul-09

2,450 2,200

Jul-09


Oct-09

BSDE

Rp

Jan-09


Price

Oct-09



20


15 10 5

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jul-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Oct-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

210

Jul-10

1,200

Oct-10

236

Jul-10

1,730

Oct-10

262

Jan-10

2,260

Apr-10

288


2,790

Jan-10

3,320

Apr-10

3,850

Jul-09

Rp 4,380

Oct-09

Price

Jul-09

50 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi CTRS sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) CTRS 366 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 18 340 16 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 14 314 perusahaan pembiayaan.


600

Oct-09

150

Apr-09

188

Apr-09

226

Jan-09

264

Apr-09

302

Jan-09

340

Oct-12

BKSL 16 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 900 14 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 800 12 700 Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 10 600 terakhir, dimana 8jumlah aset500bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008 6 mencapai 400 Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 300 pembiayaan anjak4 piutang 200 tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 2 100 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa 0 0

Apr-09

378

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

PE (x)

Mean


430

382

334

286

238

190

Price


EPS Cons (RHS) Rp

36

32

28

24

20

PE (x)

PE (x)

Apr-14

PWON

Jan-14

478 PE (x)

Oct-13

Rp EPS Cons (RHS) Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

30

Jul-13

210 Jan-13

46

Apr-13

282

Oct-12

62

Jan-13

426

Oct-12

78

Jul-12

354 PE (x)

Jul-12

94

Jan-12

498 Jul-11

Apr-14

Dec-13

Aug-13

May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

Jun-12

Feb-12

Nov-11

PE (x)

Apr-12

570 PE (x)

Apr-12

110

Oct-11

MDLN

Jan-12


Jul-11

Rp PE (x)

Oct-11

0

Apr-11

642 Jan-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

PE (x)

Jul-11

640 Mar-11

2

3,170 Dec-10

764

Apr-11


Jan-11

4,676

Jan-11

888

Aug-10

6,182

Jul-10

1,012

Oct-10

7,688

Oct-10

1,136

Apr-10

9,194

Jul-10

1,260

Jan-10

10,700

May-10

1,384

Jan-10

LPCK

Apr-10

Rp

Oct-09

50

Jan-10

52

Jul-09

540 15

Oct-09

646 54

Sep-09

752 20

Jul-09

858 56

Jul-09

964

Oct-09

1,070

Jan-09

58

Apr-09

1,176

Jun-09

12,206

Feb-09

Price

Jan-09


JRPT

Apr-09


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09



Rp


25

JRPT

10 5

0

Mean

Rp

12

LPCK

10 8

6

4

Mean

Rp

140

MDLN

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Mean

40

PWON

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Mean




Rp SMRA TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp


EPS Cons (RHS)

JPFA

0

2,332 2,080

2003

35

2004

Anjak Piutang20 15


10

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Apr-12

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Sewa Guna Usaha

5 Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-11

3,548

Oct-08

Kartu Kredit

Nov-11

4,100

2007

100 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi MAIN sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) MAIN 342 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 30 320 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 25 298 perusahaan pembiayaan.

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Rp 4,652

2006

Pembiayaan Konsumen

25

124 112

2005

30

1,576

0

JPFA

PE (x)

160

136

Price

1,000

Mean

500

Total Asset

1,072

1,500

Rp

1,828

820

Oct-10

PE (x)

148

1,324

Jan-12

Jan-09

50,000

Oct-09

Rp

Jan-10

2,000

0

Apr-14

210


100,000

Apr-12

2,570

2,500

5 Jul-11

3,156

3,000

10

224

Oct-11

150,000

3,500

15

Jan-11

3,742

20

Oct-13

238

Price

Apr-10

25

252

Apr-11

200,000

Jul-10

4,328


30

Oct-10

Rp miliar

35 INDUSTRI

Jan-10

4,914

CPIN

PE (x)

280

Apr-10

6,086 5,500

Jul-09


Jul-09

CPIN

Oct-09


Price Rp

Jan-09


710

Oct-09

866

Apr-09

1,022

Apr-09

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 74 20 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 15 66 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 10 pembiayaan anjak58piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 5 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 50 0 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

1,178

Apr-09

20

276

2,444

254

1,892

232

5

1,340

210

0

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


15

PE (x)

Apr-14

Dec-13

Aug-13

May-13

Jun-12

Feb-12

Mar-11

Dec-10

Aug-10

Jan-10

10

May-10


2,996

Sep-09

1,334

Jun-09

1,490

SMRA

90 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 30 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 82 25

Feb-09

1,646

Mean


Price

18,456

PTBA

9,120

Price


EPS Cons (RHS)

2,140 5

22,520 2,420 0


Rp

PE (x)

16,900

1,920

15,344

1,700

13,788

1,480

12,232

1,260

10

10,676

1,040

5

820

0

PE (x) Mean

25

PTBA

20

15 Apr-14

2,892

Apr-14

26,556

Jan-14

10

Jan-14

3,364

Jul-13

30,592

Oct-13

15

Jul-13

3,836

Oct-13

34,628

Jan-13

4,308

Apr-13

38,664

Jan-13

4,780

Apr-13

42,700

Oct-12

PE (x)

Oct-12

5,252

Jul-12

PE (x)

Jul-12

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Jan-12

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

230

Apr-12

2,120

Jan-12

ITMG PE (x)

Apr-12

374

Jul-12

3,016

Jul-11

518

Oct-11

3,912

Apr-12

20

Jul-11

46,736 PE (x)

Oct-11

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-11

Price Jul-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

PE (x)

Apr-11

662

Jan-12

25

4,808

Jan-11

806

Jan-11

5,704

Oct-11

950

Jul-10

6,600

Oct-10

1,094

Jul-10

HRUM

Oct-10

0 Jan-10

90 Apr-10

650

Jul-11

5

Jan-10

116

Apr-10

870

Jan-10

142

Apr-10

1,090

Jul-09

168

Oct-09

1,310

Apr-11

194

Oct-09

1,530

Oct-09

220

Jan-11

1,750

Jul-09

Rp Jan-09

246

Apr-09

1,970

Jul-09

7,496

Oct-10

Price

Jan-09


ADRO

Apr-09


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09



Rp


30

ADRO

25

20

15

10

Mean

Rp

35

HRUM

30

15

10

5

0

Mean

Rp

25

ITMG

20

Mean




Rp MEDC TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp

EPS Cons (RHS)

ANTM

0

1,732

178

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Apr-11

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Sewa Guna Usaha

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jul-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Oct-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

80

Apr-11

1,770

Jul-10

128

Oct-10

2,050

Jul-10

176

Oct-10

2,330

Jan-10

224


2,610

Apr-10

2,890

Jan-10

3,170

Oct-08

Kartu Kredit

Apr-10

Rp 3,450

Pembiayaan Konsumen

Jul-09

Price

2007

pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi INCO sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) INCO 368 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 70 320 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 60 272 perusahaan pembiayaan. 50


940

2006

Oct-09

1,072

2005

Jul-09

1,204

1,000 0

ANTM

PE (x)

Oct-09

1,336

1,500 500

Jan-09

1,468

Mean

Rp

90 2004 150 2003 80 Total 122 Asset 70 60 Anjak Piutang50 94 40 66 30 Sumber: Bank Indonesia 20 38 10 10 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri

1,600

Oct-10

PE (x)

Oct-12

Jan-09

50,000

2,000 Jan-12

340


100,000

2,500

Apr-12

3,470

362

3,000

Jul-11

4,046

384

Oct-11

150,000

3,500

Jan-11

4,622

406

Apr-11

200,000

Jul-10

5,198

Oct-10

Rp miliar 428

Jan-10

5,774


Apr-10

450

18 INDUSTRI 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Jul-09

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA

6,350

PGAS

PE (x)

Oct-09

472

Apr-09

PGAS

Rp

Jan-10


6,926

Price

Apr-10


Price Rp

Jan-09


1,440

Jul-09

1,742

Oct-09

2,044

Apr-09

pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun terakhir, dimana 200 jumlah aset40 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008 140 mencapai 30Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, pembiayaan anjak piutang 20tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 80 10 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa 20 0 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

2,346

Apr-09

2,648

Jan-09

2,950

MEDC

380 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 70 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 (Debt Sales) 320 21 527/ 5701 60 260 telah mengalami Industri pembiayaan masa 50

Apr-09

3,252

40 30 20 10 0

PE (x)

Mean


4,620 298

3,960 284

3,300 270

Price

Price

Page 54 of 60 Page 54 of 60 EPS Cons (RHS)

2,656

TLKM

2,480

2,304

1,952


Rp

170

164

2,128

158

152

1,776

146

1,600

140

PE (x)

PE (x)

Apr-14

5,280

Jan-14

312

Jan-14

5,940

Oct-13

326

Oct-13

6,600 PE (x)

Jul-13

340

Apr-13

TBIG

Jul-13

7,260 PE (x)

Jan-13

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-13

110

Oct-12

3,500

Jan-13

Price Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

PE (x)

Jul-12

164

Apr-12

4,240

Oct-12

218

Jan-12

4,980

Oct-11

272 PE (x)

Jul-12

5,720 Jul-10

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

PE (x)

Jul-11

326

Apr-12

Rp EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-11

6,460

Jan-12

380

Jan-11

7,200

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

Oct-10

434

Apr-10

ISAT

Oct-11

Rp

Jul-10

7,940 Jan-10

0 Apr-10

90

Jan-10

4,000

Apr-10

10

Oct-09

174

Jul-11

4,660

Jan-10

258

Jul-09

5,320

Oct-09

342

Jul-09

5,980

Apr-11

426

Oct-09

6,640

Apr-09

510

Jan-11

7,300

Jul-09

Price Jan-09

594

Apr-09

7,960

Jan-09


EXCL

Oct-10


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09



Rp


60

EXCL

50

40

30

20

Mean

Rp

ISAT

Mean

Rp

35

TBIG

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Mean

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

TLKM

Mean




Rp TAXI TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0


Price

EPS Cons (RHS)

BEST

1,030

Apr-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

PE (x)

2003

16

2004

Sumber: Bank Indonesia 82

478

2005

14

2006

2007

12

Pembiayaan Konsumen

10

Kartu Kredit

Anjak Piutang 94

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

1,000 0

BEST

PE (x)

130

106

1,500 500

Total Asset

754

Mean

Rp

118

892

Jul-12

Jan-09

50,000 0

1,168

616

Mar-13

2,000 Jan-12

0

2,500

Apr-12

20


100,000

5

Jul-11

190

26

Oct-11

348

3,000

10

Oct-13

32

150,000

3,500

15

Apr-11

506

20

Jan-11

38

Oct-10

200,000

Jul-10

664

Apr-10

44

Jan-10

Rp miliar


25

Jul-09

822

30 INDUSTRI

Oct-09

980

ARNA

PE (x)

56

1,138

Rp

Jan-13

Nov-12

Apr-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir 2008 dapat PE (x) hingga September Mean dilihat pada Tampilan I. Rp

EPS Cons (RHS)

ARNA

Rp

kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 74 10 pembiayaan anjak72piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 5 70 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 0 68 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

Apr-09

Price

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

TAXI 86 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 84 30 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 82 25 80 telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Industri pembiayaan 20 78 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 15 76

8


6 4 2

Price Rp 11,570 10,750 9,930

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-13

70 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi BMRI sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) BMRI 910 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 16 890 perbankan. pembiayaan terhadap Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 14 12 perusahaan pembiayaan. 870


340

10

9,110 850

8,290 7,470

830

6,650

810

8 6 4

Price

EPS Cons (RHS)


PE (x)

Jan-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Jan-12

Apr-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-09

0 Apr-09


2

Mean



Price

EPS Cons (RHS)

EPS Cons (RHS)

400

260 PE (x)

Rp

16

610

14

470

12

330

10

PE (x)

PE (x) Apr-14

Feb-14

0

Mean

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

JKON Dec-13

450

Jan-14

20

Oct-13

514

Oct-13

40

Jul-13

578

Aug-13

80

Apr-13

60

Jun-13

642

Apr-13

100

Feb-13

80

Jan-13

540 PE (x)

Oct-12

JKON Apr-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

PE (x)

Jul-12

706

Oct-12

100

Dec-12

770

Apr-12

680 PE (x)

Jan-12

120

Oct-11

EPS Cons (RHS)

Aug-12

GIAA Apr-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Aug-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Oct-11

Aug-11

Jun-11

Apr-11

PE (x)

Jul-11

834 PE (x)

Jun-12

Price

Apr-11

0 Oct-12

50

Apr-12

680

Feb-12

5

Jan-11

744 56

Oct-10

62

Aug-12

808

Jul-10

872

Jun-12

68

Oct-11

74

Dec-11

936

Aug-11

1,000

Apr-12

80

Feb-11

220 Dec-10

236

Feb-12

1,064

Apr-14

Feb-14 Mar-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

252

Apr-10

Price

Aug-13

268

Jun-11

Price

Jul-13

Jun-13

284

Jan-10

Rp

May-13

300

Oct-09

Rp

Apr-13

Feb-13 Mar-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

316

Apr-11

Jul-12 Aug-12

BSIM

Jul-09

CASS

Dec-11

Rp

Feb-11


Rp

Apr-09



Jan-09




40

BSIM

35

30

25

20

15

10 5

0

Mean

Rp

25

CASS

20

15

10

Mean

Rp

140

GIAA

120

60

40

20

0

Mean




Rp MPMX TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PE (x)

Rp

10

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA Rp miliar

352

200,000

268

14 INDUSTRI

8

3,500

6

3,000

4

40

2,000

EPS Cons (RHS)

SSIA

0

1,884 1,660

2003

30

2004

Anjak 206 Piutang Sumber: Bank Indonesia

10

182

5

Feb-13

May-13

Nov-12

Aug-12

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-11

Feb-11

May-11

Nov-10

Aug-10

Nov-11

Sewa Guna Usaha

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Apr-14

Apr-13 Apr-13

Jul-13

Jan-13 Jan-13

Oct-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Apr-12 Apr-12

Jul-12

Jan-12 Jan-12

Oct-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Apr-11 Apr-11

Jul-11

Jan-11 Jan-11

Oct-11

Jul-10

Apr-10 Apr-10

Oct-10

Jan-10 Jan-10

Jul-10

Oct-09 Oct-09

Oct-10

Jul-09 Jul-09

178

10

1,154

144

5

950

110

0


Jan-09

1,358


212

EPS Cons (RHS)

Apr-09

15

1,562

Price

Jan-09

1,766

Oct-08

Kartu Kredit

Apr-09

1,970

2007

170 Salah satu karakteristik dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x) Mean EPS Cons (RHS) perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi TINS sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas PE (x) TINS 314 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan 25 280 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan 20 246 perusahaan pembiayaan.

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Rp

2006

Pembiayaan Konsumen

20 15

2,174

Feb-10

2005

25

1,212

Price

1,000 0

SSIA

PE (x)

242

194

1,500 500

Total 218 Asset

540

Mean

Rp

1,436

764

May-10

PE (x)

230

988

Nov-09

Feb-09

50,000

Aug-09

0


100,000

May-09

100

Rp

Apr-14

2,500

2

Price

Mar-14

Feb-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Dec-13

10

150,000

184


12

Feb-14

436

NIPS

PE (x)

42

Nov-13

604 520

Oct-13


Aug-13

NIPS

Rp

Nov-13


Price

Oct-13

910

Sep-13

1,028

Aug-13

1,146

Jul-13

1,264

Jul-13

148 telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun Industri pembiayaan 8 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 6 kuartal III 2008 144 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 4 pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 2 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 140 0 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

1,382

Jun-13

1,500

MPMX

152 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia 12 Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

May-13

1,618

PE (x)

Mean



Appendix 2. Mandiri Sekuritas Earnings Guide JCI Code

Rating

Mandiri Universe

Last Target Mkt Cap Price Price (Rp Bn) (Rp) (Rp) 2,962,342

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

2014

2015

15.9

13

12.0

10.7

3

3

2.4%

2.7% 11.3% 19.0% 23.2% 29.2%

Banking

PER (x)

EV/EBITDA

P/BV (x)

Div. Yield

EPS Growth 2014

2015

ROE 2014

2015

728,979

11.9

9.9

N.A.

N.A.

2.3

1.9

2.1%

2.1%

7.9% 19.7% 20.6% 21.0%

BBCA

Neutral

11,250

10,500

277,369

17.6

14.8

N.A.

N.A.

3.7

3.1

1.3%

1.5%

10.3%

19.0%

22.5%

22.5%

BBNI

Neutral

4,950

4,750

92,311

9.9

8.3

N.A.

N.A.

1.7

1.4

2.9%

2.5%

3.0%

19.5%

18.2%

18.7%

BBRI

Buy

9,775

10,600

241,141

10.5

8.8

N.A.

N.A.

2.5

2.0

2.2%

2.4%

7.1%

19.2%

26.0%

25.4%

BBTN

Buy

1,250

1,500

12,946

7.4

6.6

N.A.

N.A.

1.0

0.9

3.0%

3.4%

12.0%

13.0%

14.3%

14.4%

BDMN

Neutral

4,550

4,300

43,610

10.0

8.2

N.A.

N.A.

1.3

1.1

2.8%

3.0%

7.7%

21.8%

13.3%

14.6%

BJBR

Buy

1,145

1,300

11,102

7.4

6.5

N.A.

N.A.

1.5

1.3

5.6%

6.1%

9.4%

13.4%

21.1%

21.1%

BJTM

Neutral

477

500

7,045

7.3

6.0

N.A.

N.A.

1.2

1.1

8.6%

8.6%

17.0%

21.5%

16.4%

18.4%

BTPN

Buy

4,100

5,275

23,945

9.9

7.7

N.A.

N.A.

1.9

1.6

0.0%

0.0%

13.4%

27.9%

21.7%

22.3%

PNBN

Buy

810

780

9.0%

25.1%

12.7%

14.3%

Infrastructure

19,511

7.9

6.3

N.A.

N.A.

1.0

0.9

4.1%

2.5%

282,711

17.2

15.1

10.3

9.1

3.4

3.0

2.0%

2.3% 12.0% 14.0% 21.3% 20.9%

SMCB

Neutral

2,800

2,700

21,459

16.7

14.8

8.4

7.8

2.2

2.0

1.3%

1.8%

35.2%

12.9%

13.9%

14.1%

INTP

Buy

22,950

24,000

84,484

15.5

13.9

9.6

8.6

3.2

2.7

1.9%

2.1%

8.5%

11.7%

21.9%

21.0%

SMGR

Buy

15,925

16,600

94,459

16.0

14.2

10.7

9.6

3.9

3.4

2.8%

3.1%

9.9%

12.9%

26.2%

25.7%

ADHI

Buy

2,975

2,500

5,359

14.2

10.1

5.2

4.1

3.0

2.4

2.3%

2.1%

-7.2%

40.9%

22.6%

26.5%

PTPP

Buy

1,775

2,100

8,595

16.7

13.9

5.9

4.7

3.7

3.0

1.7%

1.8%

22.6%

20.2%

23.8%

24.0%

WIKA

Buy

2,265

2,300

13,829

20.7

17.5

10.9

9.4

4.0

3.4

1.2%

1.4%

17.2%

18.2%

20.9%

21.1% 18.5%

WSKT

Neutral

715

600

6,887

17.5

13.0

9.6

8.0

2.6

2.2

1.6%

1.7%

7.1%

34.8%

15.6%

WTON

Buy

765

800

6,667

23.0

18.3

11.0

9.6

3.2

2.8

1.3%

1.5%

19.5%

25.5%

20.9%

16.4%

JSMR

Buy

6,025

6,200

40,970

26.0

23.7

14.7

13.6

4.0

3.6

1.3%

1.5%

18.1%

9.7%

16.1%

15.9%

558,221

26.4

22.7

15.6

13.5

5.8

5.2

1.9%

2.3% 17.5% 16.3% 23.3% 24.2%

2,065

2,700

6,195

15.9

11.7

9.7

7.7

2.6

2.2

0.0%

Consumer AISA

Buy

0.0%

37.1%

35.7%

18.0%

GGRM

Neutral

49,600

53,000

95,435

19.5

17.2

12.0

10.8

2.9

2.6

1.8%

2.0%

13.3%

12.9%

15.9%

16.2%

ICBP

Neutral

10,000

10,700

58,310

25.4

22.8

15.1

12.8

4.2

3.8

1.9%

2.0%

3.1%

11.4%

17.3%

17.6%

INDF

Buy

7,225

8,200

63,435

15.7

12.1

8.5

6.8

2.4

2.1

2.0%

3.2%

61.8%

29.1%

16.2%

18.6%

MYOR

Sell

29,625

22,000

26,485

31.2

27.8

16.3

14.5

5.9

5.1

1.2%

1.0% -18.6%

12.5%

20.4%

19.9%

UNVR

Buy

30,750

34,500

234,623

38.1

34.0

28.0

26.2

46.4

40.4

2.3%

2.6%

15.0%

12.2% 132.2% 127.1%

17.3% -20.4%

WIIM

Buy

KLBF

Neutral

DYAN

Buy

705

940

1,481

9.6

12.0

6.3

8.2

1.7

1.6

3.1%

2.5%

19.3%

13.7%

1,520

1,275

71,250

31.5

27.1

20.8

17.9

7.7

6.7

1.5%

1.8%

9.5%

16.1%

26.0%

26.3%

236

425

34.4%

41.8%

9.8%

12.1%

Transportation TAXI

20.5%

1,008

11.0

7.7

5.5

4.0

1.0

0.9

0.0%

0.0%

2,897

18.7

14.8

6.9

5.5

3.2

2.7

1.1%

1.6% 17.2% 26.2% 18.1% 19.7%

2,897

18.7

14.8

6.9

5.5

3.2

2.7

1.1%

1.6%

26.2%

18.1% 161%

Buy

1,350

1,600

85,455

22.2

18.0

13.4

11.3

6.2

4.7

1.4%

1.7% 17.8% 23.0%

ACES

U/R

785

U/R

13,463

25.7

21.7

18.4

15.3

5.8

4.8

0.7%

0.8%

2.9%

18.5%

n/a

ERAA

U/R

1,335

U/R

3,872

9.9

8.6

6.0

5.3

1.2

1.1

3.0%

3.4%

12.1%

15.9%

n/a

n/a

LPPF

U/R

14,900

U/R

43,477

27.1

21.2

18.8

15.5

156.1

17.2

1.2%

1.7%

0.0%

28.0%

-412%

n/a

Retail

17.2%

19.7% n/a

MAPI

U/R

5,950

U/R

9,877

22.1

17.2

9.0

8.0

3.5

2.9

0.6%

0.8%

36.6%

28.6%

37.0%

n/a

RALS

U/R

1,310

U/R

9,296

19.5

17.2

11.1

9.9

2.7

2.5

2.6%

3.0%

22.0%

13.5%

29.7%

n/a

RANC

U/R

645

U/R

1,009

20.6

17.2

11.0

8.3

2.3

2.1

1.0%

1.2%

42.6%

19.4%

n/a

n/a

TELE

U/R

805

U/R

4,462

12.3

10.1

7.1

5.9

3.5

2.8

2.9%

3.3%

21.3%

21.8%

n/a

n/a

9.1% 15.0% 40.6%

Automotive

325,301

14.9

13.0

12.4

11.1

3.2

2.8

2.9%

3.2%

ASII

U/R

7,700

U/R

311,723

14.9

13.0

12.6

11.3

3.3

2.9

2.9%

3.3%

7.3%

14.6%

38.9%

n/a

IMAS

U/R

4,910

U/R

13,578

14.5

11.7

9.1

7.6

2.1

1.8

1.1%

1.5%

76.0%

24.1%

n/a

n/a

82,380

15.5

15.6

6.7

6.8

2.1

2.0

2.3%

2.3%

2.9%

-1.0% 14.4% 13.6%

Heavy Equipment HEXA

Buy

UNTR

Neutral


3,930

5,450

3,301

13.8

9.9

9.3

6.9

1.6

1.4

6.5%

2.2% -61.0%

21,200

17,000

79,079

15.8

15.3

6.6

6.8

2.2

2.0

2.3%

2.4%

3.6%

38.2%

11.3%

14.7%

3.5%

14.4%

13.6%


Strategy | 14 April 2014 Strategy | 14 April 2014 ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 JCI Code

Rating

Last Target PER (x) EV/EBITDA P/BV (x) Mkt Cap Price Price (Rp Bn) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 (Rp) (Rp) Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 68,682 14.6 Subroto 11.5 2.8 2.4 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Kav. 36 -8.5 38, Jakarta6.6 12190, Indonesia

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI

Plantation

Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 43,699 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt 21 527/ 5701 Sales) Buy 27,750 25,000 15.4 Research), 12.6 +629.1 7.3(Debt 3.7 3.2

AALI BWPT

Buy

1,315

1,750

LSIP

Buy

2,250

2,200

SGRO

Buy

1,995

3,000

Property APLN

Buy

269

340

ASRI

Neutral

555

680

BKSL

Neutral

BSDE

Buy

CTRA

Neutral

1,050

880

CTRS

Buy

2,285

185

200

1,540

2,000

Div. Yield

EPS Growth 2014

2015

2.0%

3.2% 61.7% 27.5% 20.5% 22.6%

2.2%

3.5%

57.9%

2015

ROE

2014

22.2%

2014 26.3%

2015 27.3%

5,861

14.7 9.4 10.0 2.3 1.9 0.8% 1.4% 64.0% 55.8% 16.9% 22.2% Industri pembiayaan telah 6.8 mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 13.4 10.5 7.1 5.4 2.1 1.8 2.0% 3.0% 49.4% 27.1% 16.4% 18.4% terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 3,771 12.0 8.6 6.2 4.9 1.3 1.2 2.2% 3.0% 164.3% 40.4% 11.3% 14.4% kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 123,367 9.6 8.4 8.2 6.9 1.9 1.6 1.5% 1.6% 4.7% 14.2% 22.1% 20.9% pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 5,515 6.0 5.2 6.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 3.1% 3.3% -13.6% 16.6% 14.9% 15.4% pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan3.9% kartu4.7% kredit54.4% mengalami pertumbuhan 9,914 7.3 6.2 7.8 6.0 1.6 1.3 17.8% 23.7% 23.2% dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 5,808 6.6 5.4 11.2 8.9 0.9 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 39.8% 22.0% 15.0% 15.7% 15,351

26,945

12.5

10.6

10.8

8.9

2.3

2.0

2.5%

2.0% -17.5%

17.7%

19.7%

20.0%

4,000

tahun1.1% terakhir 2008 19.0% dapat 15,924Kinerja 13.2 industri 10.5 pembiayaan 9.6 7.7 dalam 2.2 lima 1.8 1.5%hingga 33.1%September 25.7% 17.7% 4,522dilihat8.6pada Tampilan 6.6 5.5I. 3.8 1.7 1.4 2.1% 2.7% 27.8% 30.3% 21.6% 23.4%

11,688

16.1

12.2

13.4

9.6

3.8

3.0

1.0%

0.9%

32.0%

25.9%

27.1%

JRPT

Buy

850

1,000

LPCK

Buy

7,650

9,850

MDLN

Neutral

453

480

PWON

Buy

345

430

16,615

11.1

7.9

8.3

6.2

3.3

2.4

1.6%

2.1%

32.0%

41.4%

33.3%

SMRA

Buy

1,070

1,260

15,435

13.6

200,000 11.2

9.4

8.1

2.5

2.1

0.0%

0.0%

2.6%

22.3%

3,500 20.4% 21.5%

89,948

21.1

17.3

13.7

11.7

4.8

3.9

1.1%

1.3% 26.4% 22.2% 24.7% 3,00024.8%

19.2 16.1 150,000

Poultry

32.8%

5,324TAMPILAN 6.6 6.1 5.0 3.9 2.0PEMBIAYAAN 1.5 0.0% DALAM 0.0% 36.5% 8.7% 36.3% 28.6% 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR 5,677 3.3 6.2 3.4 5.3 0.9 0.8 0.0% 0.0% -30.7% -46.3% 30.8% 13.4%

Rp miliar

35.3%

CPIN

Neutral

4,215

4,100

69,222

23.1

13.8

5.7

4.6

1.0%

1.2%

18.3%

20.1%

27.0%

JPFA

Neutral

1,430

1,580

15,014

16.7

13.5

9.7

8.6

2.7

2.4

1.3%

1.9%

52.0%

23.1%

17.6%

18.9%

MAIN

Buy

3,370

4,000

5,712

15.7

11.5 100,000

11.4

8.3

4.7

3.3

0.9%

1.3%

47.6%

36.7%

34.7%

33.6%

235,907

15.9

11.6

6.0

5.2

2.5

2.2

4.3%

5.2%

1,50035.0% -6.2% 37.5% 18.0%

9.9 50,000

5.0

4.2

1.1

1.0

3.4%

4.1%

5.8%

22.2%

-2.2

0.8

0.8

-4.4

4.4

4.6%

9.2%

0%

50.0%

3.7

2.9

1.6

1.4

7.8%

10.3%

53.9%

31.7%

24.3%

27.4%

5.6

4.7

3.0

2.7

7.4%

8.6%

10.6%

16.5%

29.1%

31.0%

2003 7.1

4.9 2004 2.2

2005 1.9

Energy ADRO

Neutral

BUMI

U/R

1,010

1,050

32,306

12.1

231

U/R

4,799

-1.1

HRUM

Neutral

2,160

3,200

5,832

7.0

5.4

ITMG

Neutral

25,325

29,150

28,615

10.8

9.3

PTBA

Neutral

9,750

12,100

22,469

10.5

ENRG

U/R

96

U/R

4,286

4.5

7.9

MEDC

U/R

2,555

U/R

8,514

18.5

6.5

PGAS

U/R

5,325

U/R

129,086

13.6

12.9

ANTM

U/R

1,125

U/R

BRMS

U/R

219

INCO

U/R

3,480

0

4.5 Total 13.4Asset13.3

n/a

4.7

4.1

0.9

9.2

8.4

4.1

50,909Sumber: 71.2 Bank29.5 14.4 Indonesia

10.9

10,731

75.0

25.7

15.0

11.0

U/R

5,600

-20.7

-20.7

39.1

31.1

U/R

34,578

Metal

Anjak Piutang

2,500 26.4% 2,000

9.6% 1,000 11.0% n/a 500

0

n/a

2006 6.3%200719.9% Oct-08 4.8% 32.6% 22.8% 26.1% n/a 0.0%Konsumen 0.0% -49.0% Sewa 0.0% 1.5% n/a Pembiayaan Guna Usaha 0.8

1.7%

3.3% 217.1% 184.6%

3.4%

n/a

3.6

4.0%

4.4%

-7.5%

5.4%

64.5%

n/a

1.6

1.6

0.9%

1.5%

N/M

141%

7.1%

0.8

0.8

1.1%

1.2% -65.1% 191.4%

3.4%

n/a

n/a

n/a

0.0%

0.0%

n/a

n/a

Kartu Kredit

78.9%

0.0%

Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat 41.0 21.9 12.9 9.9 1.9 1.8 0.9% 1.8% 105.1% 87.5% 10.4% n/a dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per Telecommunication 327,584 17.6 15.3 5.4 5.1 3.0 2.7 3.6% 4.0% 29.7% 14.7% 37.7% September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanEXCL U/R 4,920 U/R 41,990 50 27 7.2 6.4 3 2 0 1.7% -0.2 0.9 11.8% n/a perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi ISAT U/R 3,810 U/R 20,703 34 20 1.8 1.7 1 1 0 2.3% N/M 0.7 n/a n/a sebesar 11%16dan 15.9 pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%.0.2Data 0.2 ini mempertegas TBIG U/R 6,050 U/R 29,019 20 14.1 5 4 0 1.4% 70.5% n/a TLKM U/R 2,340 U/R 235,872adanya 15 keterikatan/ketergantungan 14 5.3 5.0 3 yang 3 cukup0 besar 4.9% atas0.1perusahaan-perusahaan 0.1 39.7% n/a pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan Note : perusahaan pembiayaan. - *) means Company Data is using Bloomberg Data - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A. means Not Applicable



Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Plaza Mandiri 28 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Equity Research), +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales) General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Equity Research), +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales)

John Rachmat John Rachmat Adrian Joezer Tjandra Lienandjaja Handoko Wijoyo Handoko Wijoyo Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CA, CPA Herman Koeswanto, CFA Herman Koeswanto, CFA Liliana S Bambang Tjandra Lienandjaja Ariyanto Kurniawan Liliana S Bambang Rizky Hidayat AriyantoAriati Kurniawan Vanessa Tanuwijaya Aldian Taloputra Aldian Taloputra Leo Putra Putra Rinaldy Rinaldy Leo Satriawan Wisnu Trihatmojo Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Rizky Hidayat INSTITUTIONAL SALES Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Lokman Lie Sylvia Tirtanata Silva Halim Wisnu Trihatmojo Andrew Handaya Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie INSTITUTIONAL SALES Jane Theodoven Sukardi Lokman Lie Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Silva Halim Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Andrew Handaya Mirna Santikara Salim Oos Rosadi Oos Rosadi Vera Ongyono Vera Ongyono Yohan Setio, CFA Yohan Setio, Niode CFA Zahra Aldila Zahra Aldila Niode Mirna Santikara Salim Kusnadi Widjaja Jane Sukardi Edwin Pradana Setiadi Kusnadi Widjaja Edwin Setiadi

RETAIL SALES RETAIL SALES Ridwan Pranata Ridwan Pranata Boy Triyono Yohanes Triyanto Triyanto Yohanes Hendra Riady Riady Hendra Meta Rama Prilyandari Umar Abdullah Boy Triono Indra Mas’ari Ariadi Yuri Ariadi Irawan Endro Surono Ruwie Ruwie

Head of Equity Research, Strategy Head of Equity Research, Strategy Automotive, Conglomerate, Banking Consumer, Retail Construction, Toll Road Construction, Toll Road Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy Consumer, Poultry Coal and Metal mining Property, Building Material Banking Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining Property, Building Material Property, Media Telecommunication Banking, Health Care Economist Economist Economist Economist Technical ResearchAnalyst Assistant Research Assistant Research Assistant Research Assistant Co-HeadAssistant Institutional Equities Research Co-HeadAssistant Institutional Equities Research Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Equities Co-Head Institutional Institutional Sales Equities Co-Head Institutional Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales InstitutionalSales Sales Institutional Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Institutional Sales Equity Dealing Institutional Sales Equity Dealing Equity Dealing Equity Dealing

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

+6221 5296 9542 +6221 5296 9542 +6221 5296 9617 +6221 5296 9549 +6221 5296 9418 +6221 5296 9418 +6221 5296 9553 +6221 5296 9553 +6221 5296 9569 +6221 5296 9569 +6221 5296 9465 +6221 5296 9617 +6221 5296 9682 +6221 5296 9465 +6221 5296 9415 +6221 5296 9682 +6221 5296 9546 +6221 5296 9572 +6221 5296 9572 +6221 5296 9406 +6221 5296 9406 +6221 520 8007 +6221 5296 9544 +6221 5296 9543 +6221 5296 9415 +6221 5296 9546 +6221 5279623 5375 +6221 5296 +6221 5279544 5375 +6221 5296 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 5375 +6221 527527 5375 +6221 5375 +6221 527527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 5375 +6221 527527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 5375 +6221 527527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375 +6221 527 5375

Head Retail Equities Jakarta JakartaBranch Branch Kelapa KelapaGading GadingBranch Branch Mangga ManggaDua DuaBranch Branch Pondok PondokIndah IndahBranch Branch Bandung BandungBranch Branch Pontianak PontianakBranch Branch Malang Surabaya Branch Medan&Branch Medan Branch

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] indra.mas’[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

+6221 5296 9514 +6221 5296 9514 +6221 5296 9436 +6221 45845355 +6221 45845355 +6221 6230 2333 +6221 6230 2333 +6221 75818837 +6221 75918400 +6222 2510738 +6222 426-5088 +62561 582292 +62561 582292 +6231 535457 7218 +6261 1116 +6261 457 1116

INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutraltotal (-10% to10%) andappreciation Sell (-10% orplus lower). INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected return (price dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the the last

published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT.is Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement materials andStock sources believed(IDX). to beAlthough reliable, PT. Sekuritas or any other DISCLAIMER: This report issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a memberfrom of the Indonesia Exchanges theMandiri contents of this document may company the MandiriofGroup cannotSekuritas, guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or anytoother company the Mandiri Group be represent in the opinion PT. Mandiri deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed be reliable, PT.inMandiri Sekuritas or may any other involved to anyguarantee opinion herein to makeand markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Mandiri Group Sekuritas orbe its accuracy completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the may companyinintransactions the Mandiricontrary Group cannot any otherincompany in thecontrary MandiritoGroup may seek or will or other in business relationships with the herein. companies in this report. For or involved transactions any opinion herein to seek makeinvestment markets, orbanking have positions the securities recommended PT. Mandiri Sekuritas further information number or investment fax 62-21-5275711. any other companyplease in thecontact Mandiriour Group may 62-21-5263445 seek or will seek banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For

further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275711. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, and all pertinent variables.toIt this is also certified thatcertifies the views and contained in this report willabout not bethe ANALYSTS securities CERTIFICATION: Each contributor report hereby that allrecommendations the views expressed accurately reflect hisare ornot herand views influenced any part or allall of pertinent his or her compensation. companies,bysecurities and variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be

influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

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RESEARCH RESEARCH

STRATEGY THE BOTTOM LINE Strategy Update 14 April 2014

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