CONGRES PENSIOENEDUCATIE BESTUREN EN BELEGGEN IN 2015
QUALITY GROWTH IN THE LONG TERM
RISICOMANAGEMENT IN OPKOMENDE MARKTEN “LESSONS LEARNED” 1994-2024 RISICOMANAGEMENT IN OPKOMENDE MARKTEN “
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY
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AT A GLANCE Independent equity management group
Four teams, one common approach
§ Founded in 1985
§ Quality growth equities
§ Capital held by founders and employees
§ Asia ex-Japan, GEM, Europe, Global/Japan/US
§ Q3 2014 AUM: €16.4bn / $22.4bn
§ 12 long-only equity strategies
Stable and diverse international organization § Very low employee turnover § Team spirit rather than individualism § 20 nationalities among 100+ colleagues
PARIS - HONG KONG - DUBLIN - DÜSSELDORF - TOKYO - SINGAPORE - MUMBAI*
* Exclusive relationship with Comgest India Advisors, an independent company
Proven ability to manage equities and serve institutional clients worldwide 2
QUALITY GROWTH: A SUCCESSFUL APPROACH OVER THE LONG TERM Asia ex Japan Composite
Emerging Markets Equity Composite
1200
1000
10.6%
Composite MSCI AC Asia ex Japan - NR
Composite
11.4%
MSCI EM - NR
750
800
3.9%
6.1% 500
400
6.7%
0 Nov-91 Sep-94
Jul-97
May-00 Mar-03
Jan-06
Nov-08
Sep-11
0 Dec-94
Jul-14
Global Equity Composite 1500
250
5.3% Sep-97
Jun-00
Mar-03
Dec-05
Sep-08
Jun-11
Mar-14
Pan-European Equity Composite 12.2%
Composite
2000
MSCI AC World - NR
Composite
11.5%
MSCI Europe - NR
1500
1000
4.5%
6.2% 1000
500
6.0% 0 Jun-91
Apr-94
Feb-97 Dec-99
Oct-02 Aug-05 Jun-08
Apr-11
Feb-14
7.0%
500
0 Aug-89 Sep-92
Oct-95
Nov-98 Dec-01
Jan-05
Feb-08
Mar-11
Apr-14
Annualised gross performance since creation of the composite (except for Asia ex Japan composite : since 01/12/1991). Data in EUR as of end September 2014. Source: Factset/Comgest. Data represents composite, gross-of-fees performance for all funds managed by Comgest in the relevant strategy. Performance is gross of management fees and performance fees (where applicable). The treatment of other fees may vary between collective investment schemes and discretionary accounts. The inclusion of management and other fees would have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results. Reference to the benchmark is for comparative purposes only and is not intended to indicate that the composite will contain the same investments as the benchmark. The volatility of the index may be materially different from that of the composite. The indices used for comparative purposes changed from 'price' to 'dividends reinvested' from 01/01/2001. Prior to 2000, figures are converted using the relevant FRF exchange rates. Investors have the opportunity for losses as well as profits. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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OPKOMENDE MARKTEN STEEDS BELANGRIJKER VOORAL IN DE ECHTE ECONOMIE…
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•
ALS AFZETMARKT
• •
ALS LEVERANCIER ALS CONCURRENT
OPKOMENDE MARKTEN STEEDS BELANGRIJKER …MAAR OOK VOOR DE BELEGGER
ONTWIKKELING MSCI EM INDEX AANTAL BEDRIJVEN AANTAL LANDEN WERELDWIJDE CAPITALISATIE
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Comgest
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1988 80 10 1%
2005 421 22 11%
2013 818 21 17%
DIT INTERESSEERT COMGEST MINDER… MSCI Emerging Markets 2014
MSCI Emerging Markets 1994: Malaysia Brazil Thailand Mexico India Chile Indonesia Argentina Korea Philippines Portugal Greece Turkey Colombia Pakistan Peru Venezuela Israel Sri Lanka Jordan
18% 17% 12% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Source: FactSet/Comgest - * Data as of 31/12/1994
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China Korea Taiwan Brazil South Africa India Mexico Russia Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Poland Turkey Chile Philippines Colombia Greece Qatar United Arab Emirates Peru Egypt Czech Republic Hungary
15,0% 12,0% 10,3% 7,4% 7,1% 5,4% 4,7% 3,9% 2,7% 2,4% 1,7% 1,6% 1,5% 1,2% 1,0% 0,6% 0,6% 0,6% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2%
19,2%
DIT INTERESSEERT COMGEST DES TE MEER ADDITIONELE RISICO’S VOOR BELEGGERS • •
PUBLIEK VAAK MINDERHEIDSAANDEELHOUDER NAAST STAAT OF FAMILIE JONGERE BEDRIJVEN, JONGERE BEDRIJFSTAKKEN
• •
WEINIG TOT GEEN AANDACHT VOOR ESG-FACTOREN HOGERE VOLATILITEIT: • boom/bust karakter economieën • omvang bedrijven • afhankelijkheid van Westerse geldstromen • politieke agenda’s •
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geopolitieke factoren
20 JAAR GESCHIEDENIS ONTWIKKELINGSFASES VAN EMERGING MARKETS 1994 - 2002
2010 - 2014
Crisis & hervorming
1988 - 1994 Ontdekking
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Consolidatie
2002 - 2010 De gouden jaren
2014 – 2024? Ontkoppeling?
UITGANGSPUNTEN SINDS 1994
BOERENVERSTAND… 1. WILLEN WE IN DEZE INDUSTRIE/SECTOR BELEGGEN? 2. WILLEN WE DAT MET DEZE MENSEN? 3. WILLEN WE DAT TEGEN DEZE PRIJS? EN… CONTROLEREN IS BETER DAN VERTROUWEN OMDAT… VERLIEZEN GOEDMAKEN LASTIGER IS DAN VERLIEZEN VERMIJDEN
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COMGEST’S RISICOMANAGEMENT WILLEN WE IN DEZE INDUSTRIE/SECTOR BELEGGEN? ---VAAK WILLEN WE DAT NIET--VERMIJDEN: - zwaar cyclische sectoren (boom/bust karakter economieën) - banken (boom/bust karakter economieën, transparantie) - zware industrie (kapitaal intensief, ESG-risico’s) - (erg) jonge bedrijven (vallen zonder opstaan a.g.v. concurrentie/substitutie) - kleine marktkapitalisaties (afhankelijkheid van Westers geld) VOORZICHTIG: - media (politiek, geopolitiek) - energie (politiek, geopolitiek)
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COMGEST’S RISICOMANAGEMENT WILLEN WE MET DEZE MENSEN BELEGGEN? ---VERUIT DE BELANGRIJKSTE FILTER---
POSITIONERING:
- MARKTAANDEEL - COMPETITIEF VOORDEEL - BESCHERMING POSITIE
BALANSOPBOUW:
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- SCHULDENPOSITIE - FINANCIERINGSBEHOEFTE
COMGEST’S RISICOMANAGEMENT WILLEN WE MET DEZE MENSEN BELEGGEN? ---VERUIT DE BELANGRIJKSTE FILTER---
DIEVEN, BOEVEN EN CRIMINELEN (EN POLITICI?) GOVERNANCE OOK ANNO 2015 EEN SERIEUS STRUIKELBLOK • • • • • • •
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verkoop/aankoop van activa transfer pricing intellectueel eigendom verandering wetgeving omkoping algemene accountingregels de E en de S van ESG-risico’s !
RISICOMANAGEMENT IN EMERGING MARKETS ACTIEF BEHEER LOONT (MEER DAN IN ONTWIKKELDE LANDEN) ZWARE INDUSTRIE, CYCLISCHE SECTOREN EN BANKEN ZWAARGEWICHTEN IN DE INDICES •
VOLATIEL RENDEMENT
•
VEELAL LAGER RENDEMENT
ESG RONDUIT SLECHT IN VEEL GEVALLEN •
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UITGLIJDERS VERZEKERD!
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. The securities discussed herein may not be held in the portfolio at the time you receive this presentation. Performance figures are provided net of all fees unless otherwise stated and are calculated on a time-weighted, total return basis. Funds which specialise in a particular region or market sector may entail higher risks than those which hold a very broad spread of investments. Past investment results are not necessarily indicative of future investment results. The value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. This may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuations in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Reference to market indices or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. Reference to an index does not imply that the portfolio will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to the index. The composition of the index will not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on information from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy can not be guaranteed. No liability is accepted by Comgest in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document. The information in this document is not comprehensive and is presented for informational purposes only. All opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Comgest does not provide tax or legal advice to its clients and all investors are strongly urged to consult their own tax or legal advisors concerning any potential investment. Before making any investment decision, investors are advised to check the investment horizon and category of the Fund in relation to any objectives or constraints they may have. Investors must read the latest Fund prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”), available at our offices and on our website www.comgest.com Investors shall undertake to respect the legal, regulatory and deontological measures relative to the fight against money laundering, as well as the texts that govern their application, and if modified investors shall ensure compliance with the applicable texts. This material is in no case an offer for people living in a specific jurisdiction which does not authorize the distribution of the Funds mentioned herein. The investment professionals listed in this document are employed either by Comgest S.A., Comgest Asset Management International Limited, Comgest Far East Limited, Nippon Comgest Inc, Comgest Singapore Pte. Ltd. Comgest S.A. is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). Comgest Far East Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Comgest Asset Management International Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Nippon Comgest Inc. is regulated by the Financial Service Agency of Japan (registered with Kanto Local Finance Bureau (No. Kinsho 1696)). Comgest Singapore Pte. Ltd. holds the Capital Markets Services Licence to carry out the regulated activity of fund management in Singapore and is an exempt financial adviser pursuant to the Securities and Futures Act (“SFA”), Financial Advisers Act (“FAA”) and the relevant regulations under the SFA and FAA of Singapore.
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