Riset Ekuitas Result Update
Bank Tabungan Negara Kinerja 9M16 solid didukung KPR subsidi
BUY
Pertumbuhan pinjaman solid didukung oleh rumah murah BTN mencatat pertumbuhan pinjaman 17% YoY berkat pertumbuhan kuat rumah murah (+30% YoY) sebagai bagian dari Program Sejuta Rumah pemerintah, yang juga menaikkan pangsa pasar BTN di pasar KPR ke angka 32.8%. Harap catat bahwa 3Q 2016 memiliki hari kerja lebih sedikit karena libur Lebaran, karenanya melambatkan kucuran pinjaman di kuartal tersebut, jadi estimasi kami pertumbuhan pinjaman 19.9% untuk FY16 masih terhitung wajar. Walaupun tren keseluruhan untuk bunga pinjaman cenderung turun, imbal hasil pinjaman masih tetap 11%, berkat membaiknya kualitas aset yang menaikkan pengumpulan pendapatan bunga, terutama dari pinjaman rumah murah. NPL memburuk datang dari pinjaman komersil NPL BTN memburuk per kuartal dari Rp5.1tn (3.4% dari total) ke Rp5.5tn (3.6% dari total). Namun kami tidak terlalu khawatir karena NPL tambahan terutama datang dari pinjaman komersil (+Rp0.2tn), yang telah menyusut di 2 tahun terakhir. Kami menyesuaikan estimasi provisi FY kami ke Rp0.7tn dari Rp Rp0.6tn sebelumnya, mengingat NPL di segmen komersil akan menyentuh puncak dalam jangka waktu dekat. Secara keseluruhan, kami yakin NPL akan kembali ke tren menurun dengan penurunan keseluruhan 3.0% di 2016E. Biaya kredit 9M16 Rp0.48tn (-27% YoY) dan 0.44% dari rerata pinjaman (vs 0.7% 9M15). Rekomendasi tetap BELI karena pertumbuhan pinjaman kuat dan perbaikan kualitas aset keseluruhan BTN saat ini diperdagangkan di kisaran bawah 1.0x PBV 2017E, yang menurut kami menarik, melihat potensi perbaikan ROE di dua tahun ke depan. Namun kami menurunkan estimasi laba bersih sebesar Rp91bn, memperhitungkan pembelanjaan provisi lebih tinggi karena adanya kenaikan NPL jangka pendek di segmen komersil. Harga target kami tetap Rp2.930, yang berarti multipel PBV 1.25x, yaitu titik tengah kisaran perdagangan BTN. Risiko penting untuk 4Q mencakup penundaan pembayaran FLPP.
July 27, 2016 Current price Price target Upside
Rp1,940 Rp2,390 +23%
25 October 2016
INDONESIA BANKS Stock Data Bloomberg Ticker Outs. Share (bn) Mkt Cap (USD bn) 52 Week Range (IDR) 6M Avg Val (IDR bn) YTD Returns (%) Beta (x)
BBTN IJ 10.59 1.58 1.085-2.100 18.5 49.8 0.8
Share Price Performance Rp 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16
Laba bersih Rp1.62tn sesuai dengan estimasi konsensus BTN melaporkan laba bersih 9M16 sebesar Rp1.62tn, naik 33% YoY dan sesuai dengan estimasi konsensus di angka 70%. Laba bersih kuartal ke-3 Rp0.58tn atau naik 48% YoY dan 5% QoQ. Profit sebelum provisi Rp2.33tn, naik 11% YoY dan sesuai dengan estimasi kami (69% estimasi FY). Di kuartal ke-3, BTN masih menunggu pembayaran FLPP dari pemerintah (bunga tahunan 0.3%), yang mempengaruhi cost of fund yang lebih tinggi dibanding estimasi awal, namun kami perkirakan NIM akan bertahan di 4.6%, didukung oleh tren cost of fund BTN yang terus turun, datang dari tingkat TD lebih rendah.
Share Performance (%) Month Absolute Relative 2.9 -0.5 3m 12.1 1.5 6m 63.7 48.7 12m
Key Investment Metrics Net Interest Income (Rp bn) Net Profit (Rp bn) EPS (Rp) EPS Grow th (%) P/E (x) BVPS (Rp) P/BV (x) P/Deposits (x) ROAA (%) ROAE (%) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%)
Sumber: Perusahaan, Sucorinvest
2012 4,738 1,364 148 17.5 16.1 1,134 2.1 0.3 1.4 15.5 25 1.0
2013 5,668 1,562 148 16.1 1,095 2.2 0.3 1.3 14.3 39 1.6
2014 5,465 1,116 106 (28.4) 22.5 1,160 2.1 0.2 0.8 9.4 45 1.9
2015 6,811 1,851 175 65.1 13.7 1,310 1.8 0.2 1.2 14.2 32 1.3
2016E 7,710 2,329 220 25.8 10.9 1,731 1.4 0.2 1.2 14.5 35 1.5
2017E 8,809 2,877 272 23.5 8.8 1,907 1.3 0.1 1.3 15.0 44 1.8
2018E 9,898 3,257 308 13.2 7.8 2,125 1.1 0.1 1.3 15.3 54 2.3
ERNI MARSELLA SIAHAAN
[email protected] +62 21 8067 3133
SHIRLEY SAROINSONG
[email protected] +62 21 8067 3139
BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016
Fig 1 Quarterly Financial Result
Interest income Interest expense Net interest inc. Other Operating Income Total revenues Opex PPoP Credit cost Pre-tax profit Non-core items - securities gain (loss) - loan recoveries - others Income tax Net profit EPS Core EPS
Demand Savings Time Total deposits Borrowings Loans NPL Loan loss reserves Total assets Risk weighted assets Shareholders equity RATIOS (%): Asset yield Cost of funds NIM Cost-to-income Credit cost Tax rate Loan/Deposit Gross NPL LLR to total loans LLR to NPL Tier-1 Capital CAR ROA ROE Core ROA Core ROE
3Q15 3,861 2,104 1,757 161 1,918 1,055 863 389 475 97 57 37 3 181 391 37 31
1Q16 4,011 2,256 1,755 177 1,932 1,210 722 137 585 101 68 36 (3) 196 491 46 39
2Q16 4,109 2,221 1,888 197 2,086 1,325 760 170 590 105 69 36 (0) 144 551 52 44
3Q16 4,697 2,742 1,954 178 2,132 1,279 853 173 680 126 88 43 (4) 229 578 55 46
30,683 32,260 33,125 38,157 27,247 29,038 28,805 29,077 66,518 69,820 72,573 80,236 124,448 131,118 134,503 147,470 21,580 22,982 24,506 21,383 131,580 142,944 149,316 153,814 5,918 5,132 5,093 5,537 (1,948) (2,121) (2,078) (2,189) 166,038 178,419 189,513 197,294 69,116 72,840 78,510 80,413 13,166 14,394 17,543 18,151
10.9 5.9 5.0 55.0 1.10 31.6 105.7 4.5 1.5 32.9 13.7 15.8 1.0 12.1 0.8 10.0
10.3 5.8 4.5 62.6 0.35 28.5 109.0 3.6 1.5 41.3 14.5 16.5 1.1 13.9 1.0 11.9
10.1 5.5 4.6 63.5 0.42 20.7 111.0 3.4 1.4 40.8 16.8 22.1 1.2 13.8 1.0 11.7
11.0 6.5 4.6 60.0 0.41 28.4 104.3 3.6 1.4 39.5 16.5 20.6 1.2 12.9 1.0 10.9
YoY QoQ 22% 14% 30% 23% 11% 3% 10% -10% 11% 2% 21% -4% -1% 12% -55% 2% 43% 15% 30% 20% 53% 27% 15% 17% -256% 1786% 27% 59% 48% 5% 49% 6% 51% 5%
24% 7% 21% 18% -1% 17% -6% 12% 19% 16% 38%
15% 1% 11% 10% -13% 3% 9% 5% 4% 2% 3%
1% 10% -8% 9% -63% -10% -1% -20% -4% 20% 21% 31% 23% 7% 25% 9%
10% 19% -1% -6% -3% 37% -6% 6% 2% -3% -2% -7% 0% -6% -1% -7%
9M16 /FY 2016E
9M15 10,922 6,008 4,913 501 5,414 3,307 2,107 658 1,449 286 165 106 15 513 1,222 116 97
9M16 12,817 7,219 5,598 552 6,150 3,814 2,336 480 1,856 333 225 115 (7) 569 1,620 153 130
YoY 17% 20% 14% 10% 14% 15% 11% -27% 28% 17% 37% 9% -146% 11% 33% 32% 34%
30,683 27,247 66,518 124,448 21,580 131,580 5,918 (1,948) 166,038 69,116 13,166
38,157 29,077 80,236 147,470 21,383 153,814 5,537 (2,189) 197,294 80,413 18,151
24% 7% 21% 18% -1% 17% -6% 12% 19% 16% 38%
92% 86% 104% 97% 258% 92% 106% 95% 96% 83% 99%
-2% 2% -5% 2% -38% -12% -1% -20% -4% 20% 21% 31% 12% 5% 13% 7%
104% 110% 99% 103% 99% 108% 96% 115% 103% 89% 92% 92% 95% 93% 94% 92%
10.7 5.9 4.8 61.1 0.71 29.5 105.7 4.5 1.5 32.9 13.7 15.8 1.0 12.8 0.9 10.7
10.5 6.0 4.6 62.0 0.44 26.0 104.3 3.6 1.4 39.5 16.5 20.6 1.2 13.5 1.0 11.4
77% 80% 73% 73% 73% 75% 69% 66% 71% 77% 99% 57% -140% 77% 70% 69% 77%
Source: Company presentation
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BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016 Fig 2 BTN’s target for One Million Housing Program
Loan Type
Target Unit
Construction Loan Support in Progress
Mortage Disbursed Unit
Rp tn
Approved prior to 2016 Unit Rp tn
Total Approved in 2016 Unit
Rp tn
Total Unit
Rp tn
Unit
Rp tn
Subsidized Mortgage
430k
108k
11.8
122k
5.2
71k
2.8
193k
8.0
300k
19.7
Non-Subsidized Mortgage
140k
34k
9.6
109k
16.8
23k
3.5
132k
20.3
167k
30.0
Total
570k
142k
21.4
231k
22.0
94k
6.3
325k
28.3
467k
49.7
Source: Company data
BBTN memiliki hari kerja lebih sedikit di 3Q 2016 karena libur Lebaran, yang pada gilirannya memperlambat penyaluran pinjaman di kuartal tersebut. Kami perkirakan tingkat penyaluran pinjaman lebih tinggi untuk FY 2016 (+46% YoY untuk KPR subsidi dan 23% YoY untuk KPR non subsidi), yang berarti 33% pertumbuhan YoY untuk KPR subsidi dan 16% pertumbuhan YoY KPR non subsidi.
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BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016
Fig 3 Financial Data
Balance Sheet (Rpbn) As at 31 Dec Assets Cash on hand Deposits at BI Placements Mkt. securities Govt. bonds Net Loans Fixed assets Other Total Assets Liabilities Customer deposits Borrow ings Other liabilities Total liabilities Equity Minority interest Total liabilities & Equity Incom e Statem ent (Rpbn) Year to 31 Dec Avg. Earning Assets Net interest Margin Net Interest Incom e Fees and commissions Other income Total net revenue Total Provisions Total Noninterest Expense Pretax incom e (loss) Income tax expense (benefit) Minorities Net Profit Avg. Fully Diluted Shares EPS Core EPS DPS (Rp) Div Payout Ratio
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
695 17,892 872 1,014 7,469 80,430 1,583 1,632 111,748
924 14,693 5 4,202 8,385 99,330 1,523 2,108 131,170
920 10,868 0 5,437 8,238 114,339 1,488 2,191 144,576
1,181 18,516 310 1,808 8,231 136,905 1,553 3,102 171,808
1,412 23,130 310 1,808 7,078 164,315 4,716 3,102 206,072
1,643 23,278 310 1,808 6,156 197,716 4,858 3,102 239,072
1,871 25,400 310 1,808 5,419 234,334 5,004 3,102 277,448
80,668 16,209 3,886 101,470 10,279 0 111,748
96,208 18,562 4,568 119,613 11,557 0 131,170
106,471 19,336 5,384 132,370 12,206 0 144,576
127,709 22,354 6,164 157,947 13,860 0 171,808
152,627 25,974 6,164 187,764 18,308 0 206,072
177,592 31,845 6,164 218,900 20,171 0 239,072
202,265 42,917 6,164 254,975 22,473 0 277,448
2013 106,011 5.3% 5,668 378 232 6,279 432 3,710 2,141 579 0 1,562 10.555 148 136 39 30%
2014 120,678 4.5% 5,465 469 426 6,359 772 4,041 1,548 433 0 1,116 10.524 106 69 45 30%
2015 139,906 4.9% 6,811 534 573 7,917 894 4,490 2,542 691 0 1,851 10.577 175 129 32 30%
2016E 166,542 4.6% 7,710 614 568 8,892 733 5,099 3,065 736 0 2,329 10.577 220 169 35 20%
2017E 195,962 4.5% 8,809 700 500 10,009 645 5,681 3,688 811 0 2,877 10.577 272 234 44 20%
2018E 228,933 4.3% 9,898 798 522 11,217 717 6,330 4,175 919 0 3,257 10.577 308 268 54 20%
2012 88,920 5.3% 4,738 355 205 5,298 214 3,214 1,863 499 0 1,364 9.068 148 133 25 20%
Source: Company data, Sucorinvest Estimates
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BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016
Fig 3 Financial Data
Key Assum ptions (Percent) Year ending 31 Dec Loans grow th Deposits grow th Loans/Deposit Ratio NPL/Total Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Equity/Assets Equity/RWAs Tier-1 Capital Ratio Total Capital Ratio
2012 28.1 30.2 100.9 4.1 29.5 8.8 22.1 17.0 17.7
2013 23.4 19.3 104.4 4.0 28.0 9.0 20.0 14.9 15.6
2014 15.4 10.7 108.9 4.0 33.9 8.6 18.4 14.1 14.6
2015 19.9 19.9 108.8 3.4 43.1 8.2 19.7 14.9 17.0
2016E 19.9 19.5 109.2 3.1 44.2 8.5 18.9 17.9 22.4
2017E 20.1 16.4 112.7 2.8 44.3 8.6 17.5 16.2 20.1
2018E 18.4 13.9 117.2 2.5 44.1 8.3 16.6 15.1 18.6
2012 1.4 15.5 6.7 10.6 62.2 9.9 4.6 5.3
2013 1.3 14.3 6.0 9.7 60.0 10.2 4.8 5.4
2014 0.8 9.4 7.4 14.1 66.7 10.6 6.1 4.5
2015 1.2 14.2 6.7 14.0 59.6 10.7 5.9 4.8
2016E 1.2 14.5 6.9 13.3 60.2 10.1 5.4 4.6
2017E 1.3 15.0 7.0 12.0 58.6 9.6 5.1 4.5
2018E 1.3 15.3 7.1 11.8 58.2 9.4 5.1 4.4
Key Ratios (Percent) Year to 31 Dec ROAA ROAE Fee Income/Total Income Non-Int. Inc./Total Income Cost Income Ratio Asset yield Cost of funds Spread Source: Company data, Sucorinvest Estimates
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BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016
Fig 4 Changes in financial estimates 2016E Rp bn Net interest inc. Other Operating Income Total revenues Opex PPoP Credit cost Pre-tax profit Non-core items - securities gain (loss) - loan recoveries - others Income tax Net profit EPS Core EPS Total deposits Demand Savings Time Loans NPL Loan loss reserves Total assets Risk weighted assets Shareholders equity RATIOS (%): Asset yield Cost of funds NIM Cost-to-income Credit cost Tax rate Loan/Deposit Gross NPL LLR to total loans LLR to NPL Tier-1 Capital CAR ROA ROE Core ROA Core ROE
2017E
2018E
Old 7,719 794 8,513 5,099 3,414 617 2,797 305 100 200 5 682 2,420 229 194
New 7,710 754 8,464 5,099 3,365 733 2,632 433 228 200 5 736 2,329 220 169
Chng 0% -5% -1% 0% -1% 19% -6% 42% 128% 0% 0% 8% -4% -4% -12%
Old 8,829 880 9,709 5,681 4,028 634 3,394 325 100 220 5 818 2,901 274 237
New 8,809 880 9,689 5,681 4,008 645 3,363 325 100 220 5 811 2,877 272 234
Chng 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1% -1%
Old 9,919 978 10,897 6,330 4,567 708 3,859 347 100 242 5 925 3,281 310 270
New 9,898 978 10,875 6,330 4,546 717 3,828 347 100 242 5 919 3,257 308 268
Chng 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1% -1%
152,627 41,406 33,833 77,387 166,621 4,970 (2,213) 206,166 96,745 18,308
152,627 41,406 33,833 77,387 166,621 5,216 (2,306) 206,072 96,694 18,308
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 4% 0% 0% 0%
177,592 49,688 38,908 88,996 200,163 5,294 (2,363) 239,156 115,390 20,244
177,592 49,688 38,908 88,996 200,163 5,518 (2,447) 239,072 115,343 20,171
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
202,265 59,625 44,745 97,895 236,954 5,743 (2,545) 277,523 135,821 22,564
202,265 59,625 44,745 97,895 236,954 5,947 (2,621) 277,448 135,779 22,473
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%
10.1 5.4 4.6 59.9 0.37 22 103.5 3.0 1.3 44.5 17.9 22.3 1.3 15.0 1.2 13.6
10.1 5.4 4.6 60.2 0.44 24 109.2 3.1 1.4 44.2 17.9 22.4 1.2 14.5 1.1 12.4
0% 0% 0% 1% 19% 9% 5% 5% 4% -1% 0% 0% -4% -4% -8% -8%
10 5 5 59 0 22 107 3 1 45 16 20 1 15 1 14
10 5 4 59 0 22 113 3 1 44 16 20 1 15 1 14
0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 6% 4% 4% -1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1% -1%
9 5 4 58 0 22 111 2 1 44 15 19 1 15 1 14
9 5 4 58 0 22 117 3 1 44 15 19 1 15 1 14
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 4% 3% -1% 0% 0% -1% 0% -1% 0%
Source: Company data, Sucorinvest Estimates
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BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016
Sucorinvest rating definition, analysts certification, and important disclosure
Ratings for Sectors Overweight Neutral Underweight
: We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months
Ratings for Stocks Buy Hold Sell
: We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months. : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA 25 October 2016
Sales Office & Research PT. Sucorinvest Central Gani HEAD OFFICE PT. Sucorinvest Central Gani Sahid Sudirman Center 12th Floor Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav. 86 Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia Ph : (+62-21) 8067 3000 Fax : (+62-21) 2788 9288 JAKARTA Ruko Inkopal Block A No. 23 A Jl. Boulevard Barat Raya Jakarta Utara 14240 Ph: (+62-21) 4585 9114 Fax: (+62-21) 4585 9227 GALERI INVESTASI Universitas Tarumanegara Fakultas Ekonomi Lab. Pasar Modal Ged. A Lt. 7 Jl. Tanung Duren Raya No. 1, Jakarta Barat 11470
TANGERANG GALERI INVESTASI Swiss German University Edu Town BSD City Fakultas Business Administration & Humanity Tangerang 15339 BANDUNG Ruko Paskal Hyper Square Blok B No.47 Jl. Pasir Kaliki No. 25 - 27 Bandung 40181 Ph: (+62-22) 8778 6206 Fax: (+62-22) 8606 0653 JL.Hegarmanah No.57 Bandung 40141 Ph: (+62-22)-203 3065 Fax: (+62-22) 203 2809
MALANG Jl. Jaksa Agung Suprapto No.40 Kav. B4, Malang 68416 Ph: (+62-341) 346 900 Fax: (+62-341) 346 928 SURABAYA Jl. Trunojoyo no.67 Surabaya 60264 Ph: (+62-31) 563 3720 Fax: (+62-31) 563 3710 Jl. Slamet no. 37 Surabaya 60272 Ph : (+62-31) 547 9252 Fax : (+62-31) 547 0598
GALERI INVESTASI Universitas Negeri Surabaya PIC : Wahyudi Maksum Kampus ketintang Gedung bisnis centre fakultas ekonomi Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231 Ph: (+62-31) 8297123 GALERI INVESTASI Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Jl. Semolowaru 45 Surabaya 60118
Ruko Pakuwon Town Square AA2-50 Jl. Kejawen Putih Mutiara, Surabaya 60112 Ph: (+62-31) 5825 3448 Fax: (+62-31) 5825 3449
Kiosk Mall Ambassador Lantai Dasar Blok H No.3A Jl. Professor Doktor Satrio Jakarta Selatan 12940
Research 1. Stanley Liong 2. Alexander Budiman 3. Erni Marsella Siahaan 4. Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi 5. Adina Layarda 6. Felicia Putri Tjiasaka 7. Sandy Ham 8. Putri Kinanty Siregar 9. Shirley Saroinsong
Email Senior equity analyst Equity analyst Equity analyst Equity analyst On-the-ground analyst On-the-ground analyst On-the-ground analyst Economist Editor & translator
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
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