PT Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero)

Debt Research Seaport Debt Issuance

18 May 2016

PT Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) Expanding capacity Country

Investment highlights:

INDONESIA



Strategic location and strong market position in Sumatra region. Pelindo I (“the Company”) operates 24 ports covering four provinces: Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, and Riau Islands. Most of the Company’s main ports are facing the Malaka Strait, one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world with container traffic volume estimated around 51 million TEUs per year. It has a dominant position in Sumatra Island given its strategic location and strong hinterland potential. Pelindo I operates the third largest port in the country, i.e. Belawan port, which dominates the market share of container volume in Sumatra Island. Moreover, the Company’s throughput volume is also supported by the resource-rich hinterlands which produce various commodities such as palm oil, rubber, plastics, chemical, mineral, etc. North Sumatra, Aceh, and Riau are the largest producer of CPO and rubber with market share on total national production of 43% and 27%, respectively, in 2014. Going forward, the expansion plan on Belawan port and the development of Kuala Tanjung hubport will further strengthen the market position of Pelindo I due to larger capacity, less competition in Sumatra Island, as well as the industry’s high barrier to entry.



Strategic position as part of the development of Indonesia's seaport infrastructure. Pelindo I has an important role as one of the key players in the development of the nation’s maritime infrastructure program. Four of Pelindo I’s port, i.e. Belawan, Kuala Tanjung, Malahayati, and Batam, are in the list of 24 ports that will support the shipping lane connectivity in the government’s seatoll program. Given the government's intention to accelerate the execution of its key infrastructure projects we believe the government will give the necessary support to Pelindo I with regards to the realization of the Company’s port expansion program, especially for Belawan and Kuala Tanjung ports which are designed to be the international gateways for the western part of Indonesia.



Maintaining good profitability amidst the challenging economic condition. The Company has been able to maintain profitability margin at a good level. Although the Company’s cargo and container volumes have slowed down in the last two years, EBIT margin remained strong between 3839% in 2012-2015, while EBITDA margin was stable at 46-48% in 2012-2015, except for 2014 of 41.4% due to the large one time post-retirement benefit expense. The strong profitability margin was attributable to the wellcontained increase in operating cost, increasing tariffs, and also the Rupiah depreciation against the US$ as some of the Company’s service charges are in US$ while real transaction is in Rupiah.

So vereign r at ing S&P

BB+/positive

Moody’s

Baa3/stable

Fitch

BBB-/stable

Company rating Pefindo

idAA/Stable

Shareholders (%) Government of Indonesia

100

Offering Bond I Pelindo I Gerbang Nusantara year 2016 Rating Principal amount

idAA/Stable

Rp1,000 billion

Yulia Ansari +6221 5296 9408 [email protected] Handy Yunianto

+6221 5296 9568

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

[email protected]

31 December (Rp billion)

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

2018F

Revenue

1,891

2,097

2,343

2,601

2,949

3,473 1,828

Ali Hasanudin

EBITDA

922

891

1,167

1,316

1,524

[email protected]

Net Income

499

535

700

730

742

832

+6221 5296 9629

Total assets

4,565

4,843

5,492

7,231

10,709

11,679

Total debt

1,040

743

547

1,270

3,858

3,829

Debt to equity (%)

39.8

25.2

15.2

28.7

74.6

63.8

Interest coverage ratio (x)

11.6

14.6

24.4

13.2

6.3

4.8

Yudistira Yudadisastra [email protected] +62 21 5296 9698

Source: Company and Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

Pelabuhan Bumi Indonesia I (Persero) Serpong Damai| |18 16May May2016 2016 Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) | 18 May 2016

Page 2 of 16

ASDF |FIGURE 17 Februari 2009 YIELDBON 1. GOVERNMENT FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND

10.00 10.00 BOND MARKET OVERVIEW TINJAUAN PASAR OBLIGASI TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

9.50

th

Plaza Mandiri 28 Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia IDR Government Bond Market Review Tinjauan Pasar Obligasi Pemerintah Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

9.50

GIDN1YR

GIDN

GIDN7YR

GIDN

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jan-14 Jun-14 Feb-14 Jul-14 Mar-14 Aug-14 Apr-14 May-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Nov-14

9.00 9.00 The Indonesian bond market performance showed positive Kinerja pasar obligasi Indonesia menunjukkan hasil yang pembiayaan masatahun pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima indeks tahun results at the beginning of this year. Industri According to HSBC telah mengalami positif di awal ini. Berdasarkan perhitungan 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Index, Indonesian government bonds reported the highest HSBC, obligasi pemerintah Indonesia mencatatkan kinerja 8.00 8.00 kuartal 2008This mencapai 11.03% Rp153.6triliun. hal dalam pembiayaan yangAngka dikucurkan, performance of 11.03% ytd, or 15.7% ytd in USIIIDollar. ytd atauDalam 15.7% ytd US Dollar. ini jauh was much higher than the average investment Asianpiutang lebih dibandingkan rata-rata investasisedangkan di local pembiayaan inanjak tidak tinggi mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, 7.50 local currency government bonds of 6.73% ytd per konsumen, 29-Apr. currency government bond kredit Asia7.50 sebesar 6.73%pertumbuhan ytd per 29pembiayaan sewa guna usaha dan kartu mengalami The global issues and the improving domestic Apr. Faktor global dan kondisi makroekonomi 7.00 domestik 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% macroeconomic condition have contributed to the rally in yang membaik telah mendukung rally di pasar obligasi 6.50 global,6.50 the government bond market this year. From the global pemerintah tahun ini. Dari pasar kenaikan FFR Kinerja industri pembiayaan sebesar dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga 2015 September 2008diiringi dapat market, the FFR hike of 25 bps in December 2015, which 25 bps di bulan Desember yang tidak 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada was not followed by continuous interest rate Tampilan hike as I. dengan kenaikan suku bunga lanjutan seperti periode previously happened in the period of FFR hikes in 2006, has kenaikan FFR sebelumnya di tahun 2006 telah menahan curbed significant increase in US Treasury yield. Besides kenaikan US Treasury yield secaraLIMA signifikan. Disamping itu, TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM TAHUN TERAKHIR that, the rally was also supported by continuing dovish rally di pasar obligasi pemerintah juga didukung oleh Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Source: Bloomberg Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar statement from Yellen and reconfirmed by the FOMC’s pernyataan Yellen yang mengindikasikan adanya kehatiMarch minutes of the meeting released on 7-April hatian dalam pengetatan kebijakan moneter 3,500 dan telah 200,000that FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS showed many Fed members are reluctant to hike further in dikonfirmasi kembali dalam hasil notulen rapat FOMC 3,000 the face of global uncertainty. Meanwhile, the negative bulan Maret yang dirilis pada 7-April yang mana 150,000 Variable Variable interest rates policy in European countries and Japan has menunjukkan bahwa banyak dari anggota Fed 2,500 keberatan also curbed the rise in US Treasury yield and led to US atas kenaikan suku bunga Fed lebih lanjut karena 2,000 masih BI Rate itu BI Rate 100,000 the Dollar depreciation. From the domestic market, besarnya ketidakpastian global saat ini. Selain 1,500 Core Inflation (% yo Core Inflation (% yoy) improving economic growth, lower inflation, and stable penerapan suku bunga negatif di negara-negara Eropa dan 1,000 Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar have50,000 provided Jepang juga turut menekan laju kenaikan US Treasury dan Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) leeway for Bank Indonesia to lower its reference rate 3 mendorong turun nilai mata uang USCDS-5yr Dollar.(%) Sementara CDS-5yr (%) 500 times in the first-quarter this year by a total of 75 bps from dari domestik, pemulihan pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat UST-10yr (%) 0 UST-10yr (%) 0 7.5% to 6.75%. The lower BI rate was also followed by inflasi yang rendah, dan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap US Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates 2004 yang 2005relatif 2006 2007 Oct-08 declining deposit and lending facility rates to 4.75% and2003 Dollar stabil memberikan ruang bagi Bank 7.25%, respectively. Indonesia (BI) untuk menurunkan suku bunganya sebanyak Total Asset PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors 3 kali di kuartal pertama tahun ini dengan totalhas penurunan the biggest net buyers. Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become of Anjak Piutang sebesar 75Kartu bps Kredit dari investment 7.5% ke 6.75%. Penurunan BI because rate by foreign investorsit b investment choices bychoices foreign investors tersebut juga disertai dengan penurunan suku bunga provides attractive yields and the level isl provides attractive yields and the risk level isrisk relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia deposito dan lending facility menjadi masing-masing to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In sebesar 4.75% see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra seedan the 7.25%. potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P

Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 Index to investment grade (BBB-) 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after they Based on the Shapley Value Index calculation, US Treasury Perhitungan Shapley Value menunjukkan bahwa US raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per outlook to positive last year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO, M yield and BI rate are the main variables which can explain Treasury yield dan BI rate merupakan faktor utama yang 2016, foreign holdings in the government 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanthe movements of the Indonesian government bond yield dapat menjelaskan pergerakan yield SUN Indonesia setelah reached equal 38.5% the tot reached Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% ofto the totalof outstand perusahaan dari mendapatkan dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi after Indonesia received investment grade pembiayaan rating. bersumber Indonesia rating investment grade. Karena government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com Accordingly, the recent declining US Treasury itu, penurunan Treasury12.1%. yield dan ratemempertegas merupakan fund sebesar yield 11% and dan BIpinjaman-pinjaman lainnyaUSsebesar DataBI ini into the Indonesian bond market reached into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn rate were the main catalysts whichadanya have lowered the katalis utama mendorong penurunan rata-rata keterikatan/ketergantungan yang yang cukuptelah besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn inperiod the last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same last period year). Interestingly government bond yield by 96 bps to 7.75% ytd, while, on yield SUN sebesar 96 bps menjadi 7.75% ytd.same Sementara itu, pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onsh average, the government bond price increased by 6.99% harga SUN mengalami kenaikan rata-rata sebesar 6.99% perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companies and investors, such as insurance companies and pension funp ytd according to Mandiri Sekuritas Government Bond Index ytd berdasarkan Mandiri Sekuritas Government Bond Index Notice that the ownership of insurance coa Notice that the ownership of insurance companies (MSGBI) per 12 May 2016. Meanwhile, the government (MSGBI) per 12 May 2016. Adapun yield SUN tenor 2YR dan pension funds increased significantly to Rp4 pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd bond yield for 2YR and 10YR tenors have declined by 128 10YR masing-masing turun sebesar 128 bps ke 7.33% dan in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In bps to 7.33% and 95 bps to 7.79%, respectively. 95 bps ke 7.79%. declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market.

Page22ofof28 16 Page

Page 2 of 28

Pelabuhan Indonesia | 18 May 2016 Bumi Serpong Damai I| (Persero) 16 May 2016 Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) | 18 May 2016

Page 2 of 16

ASDF | 17 Februari 2009

FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD FIGURE 10.00 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD 10.00 GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

9.50 9.50

GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

9.00 9.00

GIDN7YR

GIDN10YR

BI RATE

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 10.00 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 9.50 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

8.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat dilihat pada Tampilan I.

Jan-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Apr-14 May-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Jan-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Apr-15 May-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 May-16 May-16

9.00 8.50 8.50

TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR

Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas 200,000

3,500

FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT Significance Weight

3,000

FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT 150,000 Variable Before After Significance Weight Investment Grade Investment Variable Before After Grade BI Rate 100,000 Core Inflation (% yoy) BI Rate Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 Core Inflation (% yoy) CDS-5yr (%) Change IDR/USD (%yoy) UST-10yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 0

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas UST-10yr (%)Estimates Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

18.2%Grade Investment 36.5% 18.2% 14.7% 36.5% 25.0% 14.7% 5.6% 25.0%

2003

5.6% 2004

2,500 2,000

39.0%Grade Investment 4.2% 39.0% 3.8% 4.2% 9.9% 3.8% 43.2% 9.9%

2005

43.2% 2006

2007

1,500 1,000 500 0

Oct-08

Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsAnjak are Piutang Jika dilihat Kartu dari data aliran dana, investor asing merupakan Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah provides attractive and theinvestors risk level is relatively yield menarik danpihak tingkat risikonya relatif rendah investment choicesyields by foreign because it low still satu tujuan investasi asing karena masih memberikan Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun 2016 menjadi investment grade (BBB-) setelah see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P dengan perbankan. Haltahun ini dibuktikan dari data statistikgrade Bank Indonesia per outlook positive lastgrade year. Based the DMO, per 11 May mereka menaikkan outlook menjadi positif tahun lalu. 2016 totoinvestment (BBB-)onafter theylembaga raised the di 2016 menjadi investment (BBB-) setelah 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond market Berdasarkan DMO, per 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanoutlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO, per 11 May mereka menaikkan outlook menjadi positif tahun lalu. reached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama dengan 38.5% perusahaan dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaanasing obligasi 2016, foreign holdings in the government bondpembiayaan market bersumber Berdasarkan DMO, per 11 May 2016, kepemilikan di government bonds. Note to that foreign fund inflow dari outstanding obligasi pemerintah. foreign reached Rp622tn or equal 38.5% of the total outstanding pasartotal SUN mencapai Rp622tn atauData sama dengan 38.5% sebesar 11%coming dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. iniTercatat, mempertegas into the Indonesian bondthat market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk kepemerintah. pasar obligasi Indonesia government bonds. Note foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi Tercatat, foreign adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup ytd besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang investors, as insurance companies and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana yang masuk, jugaselain ada addition tosuch foreign inflow, support alsoperusahaan came frompembiayaan. onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUNasing semakin menarik karena Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada pension funds significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd and (vs. perusahaan asuransi dandari dana pensiun. porsi Notice that theincreased ownership of insurance companies dukungan yang berasal para investorTercatat, lokal seperti Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi declining deposit interest rates, new OJK rulesto that meningkat signifikan sebesardan Rp44.3tn (vs. Rp12.3tn in the same period last the year). In addition the kepemilikan sangat perusahaan asuransi dana ytd. pensiun require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. 20-30% their investments government led suku bunga deposito adanya peraturan require of insurance companiesin and pension bonds funds have to place Rp12.3tn pada periodeyang yang terus sama turun, tahun lalu). Selain faktor to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan dari dana kelolaannya juga SUN mendukung peran bond market. dana total pensiun masuk ke instrument sebesar 20-30% investor lokal di pasar SUN. dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.

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Pelabuhan Bumi Indonesia I (Persero) Serpong Damai| |18 16May May2016 2016

Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) | 18 May 2016

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ASDF |FIGURE 17 Februari 2009 YIELDBON 1. GOVERNMENT FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND With the good condition early this year, in primary market, Di pasar perdana, pemerintah10.00 sukses menerapkan front 10.00 GIDN GIDN1YR theTINJAUAN government has successfully done front loading, as of loading policy, yang mana sampai dengan 10-May, INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 10 May, the government has already issued Rp322.9tn so pemerintah telah menerbitkan9.50 Rp322.9tn ytd (gross – 9.50 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN GIDN7YR far this General: year (gross – including pre funding issuances in termasuk prefunding issuance pada December 2015) atau Multifinance Pembiayaan +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00 9.00 December 2015) or 59.1% of issuance target for this year, hampir 59.1% dari total target penerbitan tahun ini, pembiayaan masa pertumbuhan sepanjang lima assuming budget deficit is 2.1% of GDP.Industri Meanwhile, trading telah mengalami dengan asumsi budget deficitpesat sebesar 2.1% dari tahun GDP. 8.50 8.50 volume in secondary market has slightly to pasar tingkat sekunder, rata-rata volume transaksi terakhir,increased dimana jumlah asetSedangkan bertumbuhdidengan CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Rp13.93tn average per day in the period of January to 12 SUN per hari tercatat mencapai Rp13.93tn selama periode 8.00 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, May 2016, - higher compared with the trading volume tahun sampai dengan 12 Mayberarti, 2016, lebih tinggi pembiayaan anjak inpiutang dari tidakawal mengalami pertumbuhan yang sedangkan 7.50 2015 that reached Rp13tn average per day. dibandingkan dengan rata-rata7.50 volume transaksi SUN di pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan tahun 2015 yang mencapai Rp13tn per hari. 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% On another front, some risks that may be encountered are Di sisi lain, beberapa risiko yang harus diwaspadai adalah 6.50 6.50 investasi worsening perceptions of investmentKinerja risk in industri developing di pembiayaan memburuknya dalam lima tahunpersepsi terakhir risiko hingga September 2008negara dapat countries (for example, can be triggered by the worsening berkembang (misalnya, dipicu oleh memburuknya 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I. economic conditions in China or China’s higher currency ekonomi di China atau devaluasi mata uang China lebih devaluation), increasing FFR faster than market besar tahun ini), kenaikan FFR lebih cepat dibandingkan 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR expectations, or higher default risk ofTAMPILAN oil companies if oil ekspektasi pasar, atauDALAM meningkatnya risiko gagal bayar prices continue to decline. While from domestic, the risk perusahaan-perusahaan minyak jika harga minyak terus Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Source: Bloomberg Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar that must be observed is the crowding out effect if the turun. Sementara dari domestik, risiko yang harus 200,000 3,500 budget deficit increased significantly to 3% of GDP. dicermati adalah crowding out effect defisit anggaran FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. jika SHAPLEY ANALYSIS meningkat signifikan ke 3% dari PDB. 3,000 150,000 Variable Variable 2,500 FIGURE 3. THERE’S SUPPORT FROM ONSHORE, SUCH AS INSURANCES, PENSION FUNDS, AND RETAIL INVESTORS. 31-Dec-15

% of 11-May-16 outstanding 100,000

% of outstanding

mtd

Net buy/(sell) - Rp tn 2,000 BI2015 Rate BI Rate ytd

1,500

Bank

348.9

23.9%

368.7

27.1%

1.2

Core Inflation (% yo Core Inflation (% yoy) 19.8 63.1

Central Bank

150.1

10.3%

50,000 149.0

5.0%

(0.5)

Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (1.1) 18.7(%yoy)

1,000

Mutual Fund

61.60

4.2%

73.2

4.5%

0.2

CDS-5yr CDS-5yr (%) 500 11.6 15.8 (%)

Insurance

171.62

11.7%

207.5

12.9%

4.1

(%) UST-10yr (%) 35.9 21.0 0 UST-10yr

Foreign

558.52

38.2%

622.0

Pension Fund

49.83

3.4%

58.28

Individual

42.53

2.9%

0

2003

2004

38.5% 3.6%

2005

(4.2)

2006

0.9

63.5 97.2 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

2007

Oct-08 8.5

6.5

PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign (0.1) 6.6 12.1 investors the biggest net buyers. Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become of Others 78.50 5.37% 5.3% Kartu Kredit 0.2 7.2 17.2 Anjak 85.7 Piutang foreign because investorsit b investmentinvestment choices bychoices foreignby investors 100.0% 100.0% Total 1,461.85 1,613.5 1.8 151.6 251.9 providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Source: DMO and Mandiri Sekuritas Sumber: Bank Indonesia to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see thefor potential forGROSS Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential ratingOR upgrade S&P FIGURE 4. THE GOVERNMENT HAS SUCCESSFULLY DONE FRONT LOADING AS IT HAS ALREADY ISSUED RPIndonesia's 322.9TN59.1% Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth OF ISSUANCE TARGET THIS YEAR dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to positive last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlookYTD to positive last year.Bank Based onIssuances the DMO, M Rp trillion 2015 Target 2016 2016 % of target 2016, foreignpendanaan in theNeed government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanBudget deficit (% of GDP) 2.5 2.2 reached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi Net Issuances 349.9 327.2government 225.6 68.9% 101.7 government bonds. Note that foreign bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund Redemption & buybacks (152.4) (219.4)into the Indonesian (97.3) the Indonesian (122.1)Rp67.64tn into bond market reached bond44.3% market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup 322.9 besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Gross Issuances 502.3 546.6(vs. Rp43.37tn 223.8 (vs. Rp43.37tn inperiod the same last year). In in the same59.1% last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came foreign inflow, support also came onsh Domestic bonds 389.4 415.4addition to241.1 58.0% 174.3from perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such and pension funp Conventional FR/VR 202.1 122.5as insurance Notice that the ownership of insurance coa Notice that the ownership of insurance companies T-bills/ZC bonds 52.2 8.0 pension funds increased significantly to Rp4 pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd Retail bonds (ORI & Sukuk) 49.4 31.5 in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In Domestic sukuk 60.0 40.8 declininginterest depositrates, interest rates, the rules new O declining deposit the new OJK t Private placement 25.7 38.3 require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf Global bonds 112.9 131.2 81.8 62.3% 49.4 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb Yankee bonds 57.0 49.0 to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm Global sukuks 26.4 32.8 market. bond bond market. Total Asset 49.1

Samurai bonds

11.1

Euro denominated bond

18.5

3.0%

Source: DMO and Mandiri Sekuritas


Page 4 of 28


Page 2 of 16

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16

ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD From the credit side, total issuance of corporate bonds at Dari sisi kredit, penerbitan obligasi korporasi di pasar 10.00 10.00 GIDN1YR GIDN3YR primer selama GIDN5YRtahun 2015 mencapai Rp 62.58tn, dengan GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR theTINJAUAN primary market during 2015 reached Rp62.58tn, with INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk multifinance and commercial banks still dominating the sektor Multifinance dan Bank yang masih mendominasi 9.50 9.50 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI corporate bond issuance. Meanwhile, until end of April penerbitan obligasi korporasi. Sementara itu, sampai Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00 9.00 2016, total corporate bond issuance has reached Rp32.8tn. dengan akhir April 2016, penerbitan obligasi korporasi Industri pembiayaan masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima sudah tahun The decline of BI rate to 75 bps, improving economic telah mengalami sudah mencapai Rp32.8tn. Penurunan BI rate yang 8.50 8.50 growth, and refinancing need of Rp48tn this year, should 75 dengan bps, perbaikan pertumbuhan dan terakhir, dimana jumlah asetmencapai bertumbuh tingkat CAGR 21.93%, ekonomi, sehingga pada encourage more companies to issue corporate bonds in kebutuhan refinancing yang mencapai Rp48tn, diharapkan 8.00 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 2016. mendorongpertumbuhan para emiten lebihsedangkan banyak pembiayaan anjak piutang dapat tidak mengalami yanguntuk berarti, 7.50 7.50 menerbitkan obligasi korporasi di tahun 2016. pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 7.00 the average dengan 7.00 In terms of risk premium, risk premium an masing-masing Dari sisi 24.41%, risk premium, premi risiko untuk sebuah tingkat for CAGR 25.77%rata-rata dan 12.25% AA rated company is 189 bps with the range of minimum to perusahaan dengan peringkat AA adalah 189 bps dengan 6.50bps. Meanwhile, in the secondary 6.50 maximum at 114 - 325 minimum-maksimum 114 September - 325 bps.2008 Di dapat pasar Kinerja industri pembiayaan kisaran dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga market, for a company with the same rating, the average sekunder untuk perusahaan dengan peringkat yang sama, 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I. risk premium is 210 bps, with the range of minimum to rata-rata premi risikonya mencapai 210 bps, dengan kisaran maximum at 124-295 bps. minimum –maksimum adalah 124-295 bps. TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR

Source: Bloomberg Mandiri MARKET Sekuritas Rp miliar FIGURE 5. RISK PREMIUM TABLE ATand PRIMARY (AA RATED) Mature NameFIGURE 2. SHAPLEY Sector VALUE Issue ANALYSIS Date 200,000 RESULT Date

No 1

PUB I WOM Finance Tahap III Tahun 2015 seri A

2

PUB I WOM Finance Tahap III Tahun 2015 seri B

3

PUB II BTN Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri A

4

PUB II BTN Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri B

Multi Variable Finance

6-Apr-15 150,000 6-Apr-16

BI Rate 100,000 Multi 6-Apr-15 6-Apr-18 Finance Core Inflation (% yoy) Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 Bank 10-Jun-15 7-Jul-18 CDS-5yr (%) UST-10yr Bank (%)10-Jun-15 7-Jul-20 0

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates PUB II BTN Tahap I Tahun Bank 10-Jun-15 2015 Seri C

Rating

Coupon (%)

Spread On Pubex

Significance Weight Before AA (idn)

Investment Grade

After Investment Grade

18.2% 36.5% 14.7% idAA 25.0% 5.6% idAA

39.0% 4.2% 3.8% (933 yrs: 9.2-9.4% 113 bps) 9.9% 5 yrs:43.2% 9.35%-9.6%

AA (idn)

9.25

10.25 9.63 9.88

(82-107 bps)

Spread Bookbuilding 268

Outstanding 3,500 (Rp Bn)

3,000

2,500140 2,000

325 135 134

1,500860 1,000 500 0

900 500

9.5-9.75%2007 2003 idAA 2004 10.002005 7 yrs: 2006 Oct-08 137 800 (87-112 bps) Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan 5

PUB II BTN Tahap I Tahun

7-Jul-22

10 yrs: 9.65-9.9%

6 biggest net buyers. Indonesia Bank has 10-Jun-15 idAApembeli 10.50 184 the become one7-Jul-25 of the terbesar di(99-124 pasarbps) SUN. Indonesia menjadi800salah 2015 Seri D Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan PUB I Mandiri Tunas : 9.75% (173 provides attractive yields and Multi the risk level is relatively low menarik 3 yrs dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah 7 Finance Tahap Tahun 4-Jun-15 9-Jun-18 idAAyield 9.75 173 150 Sumber: Bank Indonesia Finance bps) 2015 to other developing countries. In addition, we compared dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami PUBpotential II Mandiri Tunas see the for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Multi 3yrs: 9.5-10.5% 8 Finance Tahap I Tahungrade (BBB-) after 16-Nov-15 15-Nov-18 idAAdi 10.20 176 500erat Salah saturaised karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya cukup 2016 to investment they the tahun 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah Finance (106 - 206 bps) 2015 Seri A dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. PUB II Mandiri Tunas 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond market Multi 5yrs: 10.15-11.15% Berdasarkan DMO, per 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaan9 Finance Tahap I Tahun 16-Nov-15 15-Nov-20 idAA 10.80 231 100 Finance of the total outstanding (166 - 266 bps) reached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama dengan 38.5% 2015 Seri B perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign PUB I WOM FinanceNote thatMulti 2 yrs sebesar : 9.25 - 9.85% sebesar dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya 12.1%. Data 10 4-Dec-15 11% 2-Jan-17 AA (idn) 114 ini mempertegas 203 into the bond market inflow 9.35 fund yang masuk TahapIndonesian IV Seri A Finance reached Rp67.64tn ytd (114 bps)ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn the same period mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. -Rp43.37tn pada periode yang PUB I WOM in Finance Multilast year). Interestingly, in 3 yrs : 10.25 11 4-Dec-15 22-Dec-18 AA (idn) Tampilan 10.80 239 sumber pendanaan 397 2 10.85% menunjukkan komposisi Tahap Seri B inflow, support Financealsopembiayaan bps)semakin addition toIVforeign came from terhadap onshore perbankan. sama tahun lalu). Pasar(239 SUN menarik karena selain perusahaan pembiayaan. PUB II such Mandiri investors, asTunas insurance companies and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana- 9.5% asing yang masuk, juga ada Multi 3yrs : 8.5% 12 Finance Tahun 28-Apr-16 27-Apr-19 idAAdukungan 8.95 yang berasal dari para 162 Notice that Tahap the IIownership of insurance companies and investor lokal seperti Finance (117 -217 bps) 2016 Seri A pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat,700porsi PUB II Mandiri Tunas 5yrs : 9% - 10% Rp12.3tn in the same period Multi last year).28-Apr-16 In addition27-Apr-21 to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi 181dan dana pensiun 13 Finance Tahap II Tahun idAA 9.25 Financethe new OJK rules that (156signifikan - 256 bps) sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. declining deposit interest rates, meningkat sangat 2016 Seri B require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor Average Risk Premium of AA rated 189 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan Risk Premium to theMinimum increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana114 kelolaan asuransi dan bondMaximum market. Risk Premium dana pensiun masuk ke instrument325 SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran Source: IDX and Mandiri Sekuritas investor lokal di pasar SUN.




Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) | 18 May 2016 Page 2 of 16


10.00

FIGURE 6. RISK PREMIUM TABLE AT SECONDARY MARKET (AA RATED)

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

No

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Maturity Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) Last

ID

1

TUFI02ACN1

2

TUFI02BCN1

3

JSMR01CN2T

4

WOMF01BCN1

5

BBIA01SB

Bonds

Coupon

Rating

Date

Transaction

9.50 TTM

Price 9.00

10.00

GIDN1YR

Spread 9.50 Par over GIDN7YR YTM Value risk (%) 9.00 (Rp free bn) sepanjang(Bps) lima tahun 8.50

GIDN

GIDN

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat 8.50 PUB II Mandiri Tunas terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 10.20 idAA 18-Dec-18 28-Apr-16 2.64 100.0 10.2 295 Finance Tahap I Seri A kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan 500 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 yang PUB II Mandiri Tunas pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 10.80 idAA 18-Dec-20 2-Mar-16 4.79 102.2 10.20 7.50 235 Finance Tahap I Seri B 100 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan PUB I Jasa Marga Tahap II 9.85 idAA 19-Sep-19 18-Mar-16 100.0 9.8 7.00 228 7.00 Tahun 2014 Seri T 1,000 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77%3.50 dan 12.25% Obligasi Berkelnjutan I WOM Finance Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B

AA

11.00

25-Jun-17

13-May-16

1.12

6.50 102.0

28-May-21

16-May-16

5.03

106.7

9.09 6.50 224

(idn) 203 Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank AA I. UOB Indonesia Tahun 2014

11.35

(idn)


9.7

220

1,000

6

BBTN02BCN1

PUB II Bank BTN Tahap I TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR 9.88 idAA 8-Jul-20 10-Mar-16 4.33 100.0 9.87 218 Tahun 2015 Seri B 500

7

BNLI02SBCN1

Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan II Bank Permata Tahap I Tahun 2013

12.00

idAA

24-Dec-20

12-May-16

8

BNLI02SBCN2

Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan II Bank Permata Tahap II Tahun 2014

150,000 idAA 11.75

24-Oct-21

12-May-16

3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS 3,000 Variable 5.45 108.3 9.76 Variable210 2,500

9

WOMF01BCN3

PUB I WOM Finance Tahap III Tahun 2015 Seri B

10.25

100,000 AA

2-Apr-18

13-May-16

1.89

102.1

10

WOMF01BCN2

PUB I WOM Finance Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri B

11.25 50,000

AA (idn)

5-Dec-17

21-Mar-16

1.71

103.2

11

JMPD14JM10

Obligasi Jasa Marga XIV Seri JM-10

9.35

idAA

12-Oct-20

24-Mar-16

4.55

100.0

12

BBTN02ACN1

PUB II Bank BTN Tahap I Tahun 2015 Seri A

9.63

13

PNBN01CN1

PUB I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012

Average Risk Premium of AA rated Minimum Risk Premium Maximum Risk Premium

Source: IDX and Mandiri Sekuritas

Rp miliar 200,000

Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Source: Bloomberg Mandiri Sekuritas

(idn)

0

idAA 2003

8-Jul-18 2004

109.0

9.6

213

860

700

2,000 BI Rate 210 BI Rate 9.1 1,500 860 Core Inflation (% yo Core Inflation (% yoy) 1,000 Change IDR/USD (% 9.23 188 Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 500 CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 9.4 183 1,000(%) UST-10yr (%) 0 UST-10yr

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Sekuritas 16-Mar-16 20062.31 Source: 100.5Mandiri 9.39 181 Estimates 2005 2007 Oct-08 900

Pembiayaan Konsumen Guna Usaha at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the flow investors 3-May-16 at Looking 1.63 bond 100.0 8.2 data, 124foreign 1,000 the biggest net buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become of Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit 210 foreign because investorsit b investmentinvestment choices bychoices foreignby investors providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia 124 to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In 295 upgrade see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating S&P Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanreached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached into the Indonesian bond market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market. 8.15

Total Asset 20-Dec-17 idAA


4.62

Page 6 of 28


Page 2 of 16


FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD

10.00 10.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI COMPANY PROFILE PROFIL Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk PERSEROAN 9.50

9.50

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) Company history Sejarah perusahaan


9.00 9.00 PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) or “the Company” or telah PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) "Perseroan" atau Industri pembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesatatau sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 “Pelindo I” is a state-owned port company with main "Pelindo I" adalah perusahaan penyelenggara pelabuhan terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada operation in the northern part of Sumatra island. negara dengan operasionalyang meliputi pulau 8.00 8.00 kuartal III Currently, 2008 mencapaimilik Rp153.6triliun. Dalamwilayah hal pembiayaan dikucurkan, the Company’s shares are 100% owned by the Government Sumatra bagian utara. Saat ini, saham Perusahaan 100% pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan of the Republic of Indonesia. dimiliki oleh Pemerintah Republik Indonesia. 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan The Company has a7.00 long history in thedengan development of the masing-masing Perusahaan memiliki dalam 7.00 tingkat CAGR 24.41%, 25.77% dansejarah 12.25% panjang nation's port industry. The Company started its business in perkembangan industri pelabuhan di Indonesia. Perseroan 6.50 6.50 1945 and was called as Haven Badrift during the Dutch memulai usahanya pada tahun 1945 dengan sebutan Kinerja industri pembiayaanHaven dalam Badrift lima tahun hingga September dapat colonial era. The Company subsequently changed its status di terakhir masa kolonial Belanda. 2008 Perseroan 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada company. Tampilan I. from Jawatan Pelabuhan into a limited liability selanjutnya berubah status dari Jawatan Pelabuhan sampai Then in 1991 the Company changed its status from Perum dengan menjadi perseroan terbatas. Perseroan mengalami Pelabuhan I to PT Pelabuhan IndonesiaTAMPILAN I. perubahan status dari DALAM Perum LIMA Pelabuhan I menjadi PT 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN TAHUN TERAKHIR Pelabuhan Indonesia I pada tahun 1991. Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar

Saat ini, Perseroan mengoperasikan 24 pelabuhan di empat Currently, the Company operates 24 ports located in four 200,000 3,500 FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS RESULT provinsi, yaitu Sumatra Utara, Aceh, Riau, dan Kepulauan provinces, i.e. North Sumatra, Aceh,VALUE Riau, and Riau Islands. Significance Weight Riau. Sebagian besar pelabuhan Perseroan3,000 terletak Most of the Company’s ports are located facing the Malaka 150,000 Variable Before After yang merupakan salah2,500 menghadap Selat Malaka, satu jalur Strait, which is one of the most important sea lanes in the Investment laut Grade yang paling penting Grade di dunia karena membentuk jalur world because it forms a canal shipping lane between theInvestment 2,000 pelayaran terusan antara Samudra Hindia dan Samudra Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Pelindo I operates the BI Rate 18.2% 39.0% 100,000 Pasifik. Pelindo I mengoperasikan pelabuhan1,500 terbesar third largest port in the Core country, Belawan Inflation (% yoy) port, which 36.5% 4.2% ketiga di Indonesia, yaitu pelabuhan Belawan, dominates the market share of container volume in 1,000 yang Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 14.7% 3.8% mendominasi pangsa pasar dari segi volume container di Sumatra island. CDS-5yr (%) 25.0% 9.9% 500 pulau Sumatra. UST-10yr (%)

0

5.6%

43.2%

0

Pelindo's main services cover: Sekuritas Estimates Layanan utama Pelindo meliputi: Source: Mandiri 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08 1. Container terminal services. 1. Pelayanan terminal container. Total Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha Looking the bond fund flow data, foreign investors are Asset Jika2.dilihat dari dataCargo aliran dana, investor asing merupakan 2. at Cargo services (loading/unloading, pile-up Pelayanan (bongkar/muat, jasa pile-up, the biggest net buyers. has become one ofetc.). the pembelilayanan terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah services, dry andIndonesia liquid bulk terminal services, terminal curah kering dan cair, dll). Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign it still satu3.tujuan investasi pihak(jasa asinglabuh, karena jasa masihtambat, memberikan 3. Ships services (docking,investors mooring,because pilotage, and Pelayanan Kapal jasa provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik dandantingkat risikonya relatif rendah delay services). pemanduan, jasa penundaan). Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang Selain itu, kami 4. Special terminal servicescountries. (dedicatedInterminal). 4. Pelayanan terminal khusus lainnya. (terminal khusus dan see the for rental Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihatterminal adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P 5. potential Equipment services. untuk kepentingan sendiri). Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 6.to Utilities investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah services (water, electricity, etc.) 5. Jasa penyewaan peralatan. dengan lembaga perbankan. mereka Hal6. iniJasa dibuktikan dari data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook positive lastservices year. Based on the per 11depo, May menaikkan outlook positif tahun lalu. 7. toAnd other such as DMO, container pengadaan utilitas (air, listrik, dll).Indonesia 2016, foreign holdings in health the government market Berdasarkan DMO, perlain 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing shipyard services, services, etc.bond2008 7. bahwa Dan layanan seperti depo container, jasadi September yang menyatakan sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanreached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai atau sama dengan 38.5% galangan kapal,Rp622tn pelayanan kesehatan, dll. obligasi perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas FIGURE COMPANY’Sbond HISTORY ANDreached MILESTONES into the7.Indonesian market Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan besar atas 1945 In Dutch era, the Company was called as Haven changed yang name tocukup Jawatan Pelabuhan (Port perusahaan-perusahaan Department). (vs. Rp43.37tn in thecolonialism same period last year). Interestingly, in Badrift andmencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain 1960 Changed status to be State Owned Company under the status as Port State Business, abbreviated as PN Pelabuhan pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Changed status to be Port Administrator Institution (Lembaga Penguasa Pelabuhan) with the name of Badan Pengusahaan Pelabuhan (Port 1969that the ownership of insurance companies and Notice dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti Enterpirse Supplier), abbreviated as BPP. pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi 1983 Changed status to be Perusahaan Umum Pelabuhan I (Perumpel I) Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun 1991 deposit Changedinterest status to be PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero), as the Head Office. signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. declining rates, the new OJK rules thatlocated in Medan meningkat sangat require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 2013 PT Prima Terminal Petikemas and PT. Terminal Petikemas Indonesia were established by the Company as its subsidiaries. 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan 2014 PT. Prima Multi and PT. Prima Indonesia Logistik were established by the yang Company as its subsidiaries.dana kelolaan asuransi dan to the increasing role of Terminal local investors in the government OJK baru mengharuskan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% 2015 PT. Prima Pengembangan Kawasan was established by the Company as it subsidiary. dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran Source: Company investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


FIGURE 8. SHAREHOLDER AND SUBSIDIARIES STRUCTURE


Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

10.00

10.00

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN

GIDN7YR

GIDN

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 6.50

6.50

Source: Company


Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I. TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR

FIGURE 9. COMPANY’S OPERATION COVERAGE

Rp miliar


200,000

3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS 3,000 Variable Variable 2,500

150,000

2,000 BI Rate BI Rate 1,500 Core Inflation (% yo Core Inflation (% yoy) 1,000 Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 UST-10yr (%) 0 UST-10yr (%)

100,000 50,000 0

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

2007

Oct-08

PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors the biggest net buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become of Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit foreign because investorsit b investmentinvestment choices bychoices foreignby investors providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanreached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached into the Indonesian bond market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market. Total Asset

Source: Company


Page 8 of 28


Page 2 of 16



Management

10.00 10.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

Manajemen

GIDN5YR

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary ofwith PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) komisaris Tbk The Company’s BOC INDUSTRI and BOD consist of professionals Dewan dan dewan direksi Perseroan terdiri dari

9.50 9.50 Plaza track Mandirirecord 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. field. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE GIDN7YR BI good reputation and on their respective professional dengan reputasi dan rekam jejak yang baik di Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00have good experience in the Most of the BOD bidangnya masing-masing. Sebagian besar dewan direksi 9.00 transportation and maritime related sector, which some telah memiliki pengalaman yang baik pesat di industri transportasi dan Industriin pembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 of them have already had a long careerterakhir, in Pelindo I. sektor maritim dan sebagian dari dewan direksi juga dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada memiliki karier yang cukup panjang di Pelindo I. 8.00 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan FIGURE 10. BOARD OF COMMISSIONERSpembiayaan AND DIRECTORS 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan Board of Directors 7.00 Mustofa Widjaja 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% Moekti - President Commissioner

pembiayaan dalam since lima tahun Holds the Kinerja positionindustri as President Commissioner 2014. terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat Previously:dilihat Commissioner of The Company (2012-2014); Chairman of Indonesia Batam Free pada Tampilan I. Zone Authority (2008- present); President Commissioner of PT Persero Batam (2007-2013); ChairmanTAMPILAN of Otorita Batam (2006); Interim of Chairman of Otorita Batam (2005). 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR


6.50 6.50  6.00  6.00

Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri M. Nawawiy LoebisSekuritas - Independent Commissioner Rp miliar

200,000 3,500 FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT  Holds the position as Independent Commissioner since 2012. Significance Weight 3,000 of  Previously: Coordinator of Private Universities Region I (Aceh – North) (2010-2012); Dean 150,000 Variable Before After Faculty of Engineering, the Sumatra Utara University (2003-2007). 2,500 Investment Grade Investment Grade 2,000 BI Rate 18.2% 39.0% 100,000 1,500 IculCore Zukafril - Independent Commissioner Inflation (% yoy) 36.5% 4.2% Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 1,000 14.7% 3.8%

 CDS-5yr Holds the since 2016. (%) position as Independent Commissioner 25.0% 9.9% 500  UST-10yr Previously: Commissioner of the Company (2012-2016); Expert Staff of Political, Defense and (%) 5.6% 43.2% 0 Security, State Minister 0for Empowerment of State Apparatus (2011-2014); Expert Staff of Source: Sekuritas Estimates Mandiri Defense, Department of Defense 2003(2009-2011). 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08 Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan Umar Arishas – Commissioner the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan provides attractive yieldsandHolds the risk is relatively low yield2011. menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah thelevel position as Commissioner since Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya.Staff Selain itu, kami  Previously: Interim of Directorate General of Sea Transportation (2016); Expert of Legal see the potential for Indonesia's rating by Ministry S & P in of Transportation melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia Affairs andupgrade Reforms, (2015-present); Bureau Chief of Lawoleh andS&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade Foreign (BBB-) after theof Transportation tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah Cooperation, Ministry (2008-2015). dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. holdings in Zulfahmi Rizal - Commissioner 2016, foreign the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanreached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atauoleh sama denganobligasi 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul pendanaan government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari2012. total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign Holds the sebesar position as Commissioner since 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas into the Indonesian bond reached Rp67.64tn ytd Armedinflow yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia  market Previously: Indonesian National Forces fund (1971-2003). adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup ytd besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


Managing Directors Bambang EkaSekuritas Cahyana - President TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri A subsidiary of PT BankDirector Mandiri (Persero) Tbk th Plaza Mandiri 28 Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)  Holds the 5711 position as President Director since 2013. 

 

GIDN


150,000

Variable Variable 2,500

100,000

BI Rate

 

2,000 BI Rate

Holds the position as Director of Planning and Development since 2009. 1,500 Core Inflation (% yo Inflation (% yoy) Previously: Senior Manager of Facility (2007-2009); Senior Manager ofCore Planning and 1,000 Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 50,000 Development (2003-2007). CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 UST-10yr (%) 0 UST-10yr (%)

0

2003

2004

2005

2006


2007

Oct-08

Totalof Asset Pembiayaan Guna Usaha Looking at theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking atKonsumen thesince bond fund flow data, foreign investors Holds the position as Director Human Resources and General 2014 the biggest net buyers. Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become of Previously: Head of Internal Control Division (2014); Senior Manager of Risk and Quality Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment by foreign because investorsit b investment choices bychoices foreign investors Management (2011-2014); Senior Manager of Marketing Division (2009-2011). providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanreached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached into the Indonesian bond market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market.

GIDN7YR

Holds the position as Director of Business since 2013. Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Source: Bloomberg Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar Previously: General Manager of Balawan Port (2008-2013); General Manager Unit of Balawan 200,000 Manager of Business Development and 3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN Port (2007-2008); Senior Information Technology FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS (2005-2007). 3,000

M. Hamied Wijaya - Director of Human Resources and General

GIDN

9.00 9.00 Previously:Industri Directorpembiayaan of Commercial and Business Development, PT Pelindo I (Persero) (2009telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50Indonesia 8.50 2013); President Director Assistant of Terminal Business Development, PT Samudera terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Tbk (2007-2008). 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang

Iman Achmad Sulaiman - Director of Planning and Development

2 of Page10 Page of 16 28

9.50

Syahputera Sembiring - Director of Business  

Source: Company

9.50

GIDN1YR

anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan Farid Luthfi - pembiayaan Director of Finance 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 7.00 7.00  Holds the dengan positiontingkat as Director of masing-masing Finance since 2011. CAGR 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%  Previously: Director of Finance, PT Merpati Nusantara Airlines (2010-2011); Senior Vice 6.50 6.50 President-Regional Manager, Bank Mandiri (Persero) (2009-2010). Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I.

10.00


10.00

Page 10 of 28


Page 2 of 16



10.00 10.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI INDUSTRY OVERVIEW TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 9.50

9.50

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) attractiveness of: +62Indonesia's maritime Daya tarik industri

The 9.00 9.00 infrastructure industry…

infrastruktur maritim Indonesia ... Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 Vast archipelago with strategic location. The dimana Republic of aset Negara kepulauan yang luas terakhir, jumlah bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGRdengan 21.93%, lokasi sehinggayang pada Indonesia (Indonesia) is the largest archipelagic country in strategis. Republik Indonesia (Indonesia) adalah negara 8.00 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, the world consisting of 17,508 islands. Geographically, terbesar pertumbuhan di dunia yang terdiri dari 17,508 pulau. pembiayaan anjak piutang kepulauan tidak mengalami yang berarti, sedangkan 7.50 Indonesia lies along7.50 the equator and strategically located Secara geografis, Indonesia terletak di sepanjang pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan between the two continents, i.e. Asia and Australia, and two khatulistiwa dan secara strategis terletak di antara dua 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkatOf CAGR 24.41%, dan 12.25% oceans, i.e. Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. the masing-masing benua, yaitu Asia25.77% dan Australia, dan dua samudra, yaitu


2 approximate total area Samudra Pasifik dan Samudra Hindia. Dari total wilayah 6.50 of 5.4 million km , land occupies 6.50 2 2 sea areaindustri (65%). pembiayaan As a around 1.9 million km and the rest isKinerja , daratan menempati sekitar 1.9dapat juta sekitar juta km dalamtotal lima5.4tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 2 6.00 connectivity todilihat vast archipelago, island support the flow of 6.00 dan sisanya adalah wilayah laut (65%). Sebagai negara km pada Tampilan I. goods as well as people becomes eminent. kepulauan yang luas, konektivitas antar pulau untuk mendukung arus barang dan manusia menjadi sangat TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR penting.

Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar

FIGURE 11. INDONESIA'S STRATEGIC POSITION 200,000 FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT

3,500 Significance Weight

Variable

150,000


18.2% 36.5% 14.7% 25.0% 5.6%

39.0% 4.2% 3.8% 9.9% 43.2%

BI Rate 100,000 Core Inflation (% yoy) Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 CDS-5yr (%) UST-10yr (%) 0 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

3,000

Before Investment Grade

2003

2004

2005

2006

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

2007

Oct-08

Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positiveSource: last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. www.mapsofworld.com 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanResources-rich country. Located along equator, bersumber Sumber daya alam yang kaya. Terletak di sepanjang reached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total the outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama dengan 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi Indonesia hasbonds. a variety of that renewable resources such khatulistiwa, Indonesiaobligasi memiliki berbagaiTercatat, sumberforeign daya government Note foreignnatural fund inflow coming dari total outstanding pemerintah. sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas as fishery and agriculture. another front,Rp67.64tn Indonesia ytd also alam bervariasi seperti perikanan dan into the Indonesian bond On market reached inflowterbarukan fund yangyang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan produces a variety non-renewable resources such as in oil pertanian. Di cukup sisi lain, Indonesia juga (vs. Rp43.37tn in theof same period last year). Interestingly, mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn padamemproduksi periode yang terhadap 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan and gas,tocoal, nickel, gold, etc. Indonesia is one of the perbankan. berbagai sumber dayaSUN alam tidak menarik terbarukan seperti addition foreign inflow, support alsopembiayaan came from onshore samaTampilan tahun lalu). Pasar semakin karena selain largest natural and coalcompanies producers in pension the world with minyak danbesarnya gas, batubara, Indonesia adalah perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such asgas insurance and funds. semakin dana nikel, asingemas, yangdll.masuk, juga ada production 101ownership TCF of natural gas and 392 million tons of salah satu produsen gas alam dan investor batubara lokal terbesar di Notice that of the of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para seperti coal in 2015. terms ofsignificantly export tradetovalue, Indonesia's dunia denganasuransi produksi dan 101 TCF alam dan 392 jutaporsi ton pension fundsInincreased Rp44.3tn ytd (vs.is perusahaan danagaspensiun. Tercatat, ranked 8 in amongst Asian countries after China, Japan,toSouth batubara pada perusahaan tahun 2015. asuransi Dalam haldan nilaidana perdagangan Rp12.3tn the same period last year). In addition the kepemilikan pensiun Korea, Singapore, Malaysia per 2014. ekspor, Indonesia berada di peringkat di antara ytd. negaradeclining deposit India, interest rates, and the Thailand, new OJKasrules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar8 Rp44.3tn (vs. Indonesia five largest export destinations arefunds Japanto(13.1%), negara Asia setelah China, Korea Selatan, require insurance companies and pension place Rp12.3tn pada periode yangJepang, sama tahun lalu). Selain India, faktor China (10.0%), Singapore (9.5%), the United States (9.4%), Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand per 2014. Lima tujuan 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga depositodan yang terus turun, adanya peraturan and (7.0%). role Commodity wise, Indonesia's five largest ekspor terbesar Indonesia adalah to theIndia increasing of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan danaJepang kelolaan(13.1%), asuransiCina dan export commodities are coal (10.8%), palm oil and its (10.0%), Singapura (9.5%), Serikat dan India bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke Amerika instrument SUN(9.4%), sebesar 20-30% fraction (9.9%), petroleum gases (9.8%), petroleum oils (7.0%). Dalam hal kelolaannya jenis komoditas, komoditas ekspor dari total dana juga mendukung peran (5.3%), and rubber (2.7%). Given the rich resources, the terbesar adalah investorIndonesia lokal di pasar SUN.batubara (10.8%), minyak sawit availability of favorable infrastructure, especially seaport dan fraksinya (9.9%), gas petroleum (9.8%), minyak


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Pelabuhan Bumi Indonesia I (Persero) Serpong Damai| |18 16May May2016 2016 Pelabuhan Indonesia I (Persero) | 18 May 2016

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ASDF |FIGURE 17 Februari 2009 YIELDBON 1. GOVERNMENT FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND services to support the transshipment of goods from petroleum (5.3%), dan karet 10.00 (2.7%). Mengingat sumber 10.00 GIDN GIDN1YR hinterland to other islands within the archipelago as well as daya yang berlimpah, ketersediaan infrastruktur pelabuhan TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk to other countries, is important. yang baik untuk mendukung arus 9.50 pedalaman 9.50barang dari Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN GIDN7YR ke pulau lain di Nusantara serta negara lain menjadi Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00 9.00 penting. Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada …And the challenges ... Dan tantangannya 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang Lack of adequate ports and high logistic cost. Indonesia pelabuhan yang memadai biayasedangkan logistik pembiayaan anjak piutang Kurangnya tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang dan berarti, 7.50 7.50 has 111 commercial and 571 non-commercial ports yang tinggi. Indonesia memiliki 111 pelabuhan komersial pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan throughout the nation. Of the total 111 commercial ports, dan 571 pelabuhan non-komersial 7.00 diseluruh 7.00yang tersebar dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 109 are managed by state-owned port operators, Pelindo Iwilayah Indonesia. Dari total 111 pelabuhan komersial, 109 6.50Pelindo I-IV. IV. Despite of having hundreds of ports, most of the existing 6.50 dikelola oleh operator pelabuhan milik negara Kinerja trans-oceanic industri pembiayaanMeskipun dalam limadengan tahun terakhir September dapat infrastructures are incapable of handling jumlah hingga pelabuhan yang2008 banyak, 6.00 6.00 dilihatmain pada ports, Tampilan vessels given their small size. The four i.e. I. sebagian besar infrastruktur yang ada tidak mampu Belawan, Tanjung Priok, Tanjung Perak, and Makassar, are menangani kapal trans-samudera karena ukuran kapasitas handling most of the inter-island andTAMPILAN international cargo. pelabuhan yang relatif kecil. Empat pelabuhan yaitu 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUNutama, TERAKHIR The high volume handled by these ports results in traffic Belawan, Tanjung Priok, Tanjung Perak, dan Makassar, Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Bloomberg Mandiridan Sekuritas Rp miliar congestion and long handling time. Based on accessibility menangani sebagian besarSource: kargo antar pulau index per province (World bank 2012), Jakarta and Surabaya internasional. Tingginya volume yang ditangani olehVALUE AN 200,000 3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS RE had the highest accessibility index compared with other keempat pelabuhan ini mengakibatkan hambatan traffic 3,000 Indonesian provinces and the impact is higher logistic cost dan waktu pelayanan pelabuhan yang lama. Berdasarkan 150,000 Variable Variable 2,500 for low accessibility index areas. Surabaya has the main role indeks aksesibilitas per provinsi (World Bank 2012), Jakarta as the center of logistic connection to the eastern part of dan Surabaya memiliki indeks aksesibilitas 2,000 tertinggi BI Rate Indonesia while Jakarta is the center of logistic 100,000 connection dibandingkan dengan provinsi lain BI diRate Indonesia and 1,500 Inflation (% yo to the western part. The inefficient system has created high Core Inflation (% yoy) dampaknya adalah biaya logistik tinggi untuk Core daerah 1,000 logistic cost and relatively high backhaul at main ports of dengan indeks aksesibilitas yang rendah. Surabaya memiliki Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 50,000 around 30-50%. peran utama sebagai pusat koneksi logistik untuk Indonesia CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 bagian timur dan Jakarta adalah pusat koneksi logistik UST-10yr (%) 0 UST-10yr (%) 0 untuk Indonesia bagian barat. Sistem yang tidak efisien Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Source: Mandiri Estimates 2003 telah 2004menciptakan 2005 2006 logistik 2007 tinggi Oct-08 biaya danSekuritas backhaul yang relatif tinggi di pelabuhan utama sekitar 30-50%. Total Asset PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors

buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom the biggestthe netbiggest buyers.net Indonesia become of Kartu Kredit foreign because investorsit b investmentinvestment choices bychoices foreignby investors providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanreached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached into the Indonesian bond market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb Source: Worldbank 2012 to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market. FIGURE 12. INDONESIA'S ACCESSIBILITYAnjak INDEX Piutang


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FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD FIGURE 10.00 13. DOMESTIC SHIPPING NETWORKS 10.00 GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 GIDN5YR

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

9.50 9.50

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

9.00 9.00

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

8.50 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.50

Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat dilihat pada Tampilan I.


Source: 6.00Drewry 2015 6.00

Indonesia's infrastructure competitiveness is still Daya saing infrastruktur Indonesia masih tertinggal TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAMinfrastruktur LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR lagging behind its ASEAN peers. Due to the inadequate rekan ASEAN lainnya. Karena pelabuhan dan port and road infrastructure, Indonesia's competitiveness jalan yang tidak memadai, daya saing Indonesia masih Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar was still lagging behind its ASEAN Peers, based on the tertinggal dari negara ASEAN lainnya, berdasarkan Global 200,000 Global Competitiveness Index (2014-2015). Although Competitiveness Index (2014-2015). Meskipun 3,500 peringkat FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT Indonesia's ranking has showed improvement in the past Indonesia telahWeight menunjukkan peningkatan dalam3,000 beberapa Significance few years it is still below Variable Malaysia's and Thailand's. The tahun terakhir tetapi masih di bawah Malaysia dan 150,000 Before After 2,500 inadequate quality of transportation infrastructure hasInvestment Thailand. Tidak memadainya kualitas infrastruktur Grade Investment Grade 2,000 dari disrupted the connectivity from hinterland to sea transportasi telah mengganggu konektivitas BI Rate 18.2% 39.0% 100,000 transportation and, also, from the sea port to other pedalaman ke alat transportasi laut dan selanjutnya ke 1,500 (% yoy) 36.5% 4.2% destination areas. Given Core the Inflation importance of having a daerah tujuan lainnya. Mengingat pentingnya keberadaan 1,000 Change to IDR/USD (%yoy) 14.7% favorable maritime infrastructure support the50,000 country's infrastruktur maritim3.8% yang baik untuk mendukung kegiatan CDS-5yrfor (%) the ASEAN economic 25.0% 9.9% 500 economic activity and to prepare ekonomi dan sebagai persiapan menghadapi masyarakat (%)facilities, especially 5.6% 43.2% community, construction ofUST-10yr new port at ekonomi ASEAN, pembangunan fasilitas pelabuhan baru, 0 0 the four main Source: ports,Mandiri has Sekuritas been carried out by the terutama pada empat pelabuhan utama, sedang dilakukan Estimates 2003 oleh 2004pemerintah. 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08 government Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan FIGURE 14. INDONESIA COMPETITIVENESS the biggest net buyers.INFRASTRUCURE Indonesia has become one of theINDEX pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan Indone- MalayThai Viet Indone- MalayThai Viet Indone- MalayThai Viet provides attractive yields and the risk level Filipina is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah Filipina Filipina sia sia land nam sia sia land nam sia sia land nam Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami Infrastruktur 92 29 49 119 98 82 25 61 110 98 72 20 76 112 95 see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Jalan 90 27 39 120 87 78 23 42 1002 87 72 19 50 104 87 Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah Kereta Api 54 17 65 68 94 44 18 72 58 89 41 12 74 52 80 dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. Transportasi 104 21 in the 56 government 113 120 89 yang 24 56 98 DMO, 116 per78% 77 May 19 54 88 101 di 2016, foreign holdings bond market Berdasarkan 11 2016, kepemilikan asing September 2008 menyatakan bahwa sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanLaut reached total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama denganobligasi 38.5% TransportasiRp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the pembiayaan dari perbankan, 89 24 33 94perusahaan 112 68 20 bersumber 34 92 dana113 64 disusul 19 oleh37pendanaan 87 108 Udara government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas Source: Economic bond Forum market reached Rp67.64tn ytd into theWorld Indonesian inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan The Global Maritime Fulcrum Program Global Maritim addition to foreign inflow, support program also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUNFulcrum semakin menarik karena selain perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Improving the country’s maritime sector. The Global Meningkatkan sektor maritim Indonesia. Konsep Poros Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) is rolled out by President Joko Maritim Dunia (PMD) yang digulirkan oleh Presiden Joko pension significantly Rp44.3tnIndonesia ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi salah dan dana porsi Widodo funds as oneincreased of the main agenda tototransform Widodo merupakan satu pensiun. agenda Tercatat, utama untuk Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun into one of the most influential countries in the global mengubah Indonesia menjadi salah satu negara yang declining deposit interest rates, the new rules that meningkat sangat dalam signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn (vs. maritime landscape. There are 5 pillars of theOJK GMF doctrine: paling berpengaruh lanskap maritim global. ytd. Konsep require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 1.Maritime culture; 2. Marine resources; 3. Archipelagic tersebut memiliki 5 pilar: 1. Budaya maritim; 2. Sumber daya 20-30% of their4.investments in government bonds have led suku3.bunga depositoNusantara; yang terus4.turun, adanya peraturan connectivity; Naval development/maritime security; and laut; Konektivitas Pertahanan/keamanan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan 5. Maritime diplomacy. These pillars reflect Indonesia's maritim; dan 5. Diplomasi maritim. Pilar-pilar ini bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% focus to develop the maritime driven economy given the menunjukkan Indonesia fokus dalam mengembangkan dari total danayang kelolaannya peran country’s large number of islands and vast sea area of perekonomian didorong juga olehmendukung sektor maritim investor lokal di pasar SUN. around 65% of the total territory. mengingat besarnya jumlah pulau di Indonesia dan wilayah laut yang luas sekitar 65% dari total luas wilayah negara.





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ASDF |FIGURE 17 Februari 2009 YIELDBON 1. GOVERNMENT FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND FIGURE 15. GMF’S FIVE PILLARS

10.00

10.00

9.50

9.50

Revival of Indonesia's maritime culture, creating link between Indonesia's TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Maritim CultureMandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk archipelagic geography, identity, and livelihood. Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Improvement of +62 the 21 management of oceans Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) and fisheries through the

Archipelagic connectivity Naval Developnment/ Maritime Security

Maritime Diplomacy

Source: Jakarta Post

GIDN

GIDN7YR

GIDN

9.00

and security. Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 Boost indimana Indonesia's maritime by improving island connectivity through terakhir, jumlah aseteconomy bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada water highways, port infrastructure, shipping industry and maritime tourism. 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang Bolstering Indonesia's maritime defences to support maritime sovereignty and pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan wealth, and realising the role in maintaining navigation safety and maritime 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan security. konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGRissues masing-masing dan the 12.25% Maritime and border as the heart of24.41%, diplomacy,25.77% encouraging development of maritime diplomacy that inspires Indonesia's partners to work 6.50 6.50 together to eliminate conflict arising over illegal fishing, breaches of sovereignty, Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam limaconcerns. tahun terakhir hingga September territorial disputes, piracy and environmental

6.00

dilihat pada Tampilan I.

6.00

2008 dapat


Marine Resources

9.00 development of the fishing industry and building maritime "food sovereignty"

GIDN1YR

Sea toll concept. One of the main TAMPILAN focuses of the GMF INDUSTRI Konsep PEMBIAYAAN tol laut. Salah satu fokus utama dari konsep PMD 1. KINERJA DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR concept is improving inter-island connectivity to reduce the adalah meningkatkan konektivitas antar pulau untuk Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Source: Bloomberg Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar national logistic cost. The concept that is so-called sea toll mengurangi biaya logistik. Konsep yang disebut tol laut means an effective inter-island connectivity characterized mengandung arti konektivitas antar pulau yang efektif 200,000 3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS by the presence of vessels serving regular and scheduled ditandai dengan adanya kapal yang melayani jalur 3,000 shipping lanes from west to east Indonesia. The main pelayaran reguler dan terjadwal dari barat ke Indonesia 150,000 Variable Variable 2,500 elements of the sea toll program are the availability of timur. Unsur utama dari program tol laut adalah reliable ports, good inland access infrastructure, good ketersediaan pelabuhan yang andal, infrastruktur 2,000 akses BI Rate Rate baik, 100,000lanes, shipping industry, regular and scheduled shipping darat yang baik, industri perkapalanBI yang jalur 1,500 Core Inflation (% yo and the availability of adequate cargo between west to east pelayaran reguler dan terjadwal, dan ketersediaan kargo Core Inflation (% yoy) 1,000 Indonesia and vice versa. The government has identified 24 yang memadai antara barat ke timur Indonesia dan Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 50,000 strategic ports (all operated by the state-owned Pelindo Isebaliknya. Pemerintah telah mengidentifikasi 24 CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 IV) to support the sea toll program, in which five will act as pelabuhan strategis (semua dioperasikan oleh Pelindo I-IV) (%) UST-10yr UST-10yr (%) hub ports and the 19 other will act as feeder ports. 0The 5 untuk mendukung program tol laut, di mana 0lima dari Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Source: Mandiri Estimates 2003 pelabuhan 2004 2005 2007 Oct-08Sekuritas main ports are: tersebut 2006 akan bertindak sebagai hub port dan 19 lainnya akan bertindak sebagai pelabuhan pengumpan. Total Asset PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors 5 pelabuhanthe utama adalah: the buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom biggest netbiggest buyers.net Indonesia become of Anjak Piutang

Kartu Kredit

investment foreign because investorsit b investment choices bychoices foreignby investors Pelabuhan Belawan/Kuala Tanjung 1. Pelabuhan Belawan / Kuala Tanjung provides attractive yields and the risk level isl provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively Tanjung priok/Kali Baru 2. Tanjung Priok / Kali Baru Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In compared to other developing countries. In addition, Tanjung Perak 3. Tanjung Perak see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgra see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P Makassar 4. Makassar Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) th 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after they raised Bitung 5. Bitung dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M The program includes the construction, upgrade, and menyatakan Program ini2016, meliputi pembangunan, peningkatan, dan 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government foreign holdings inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber perusahaanexpansion of the aforementioned portsperusahaan with indicative total bersumber perluasan pelabuhan dengan indikasi nilai investasi sebesar reached Rp622tn equalofto 38.5% the tot reached Rp622tn or equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand pembiayaan dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi value of Rp66.8 trillion of investment cost, excluding land Rp66.8 triliun, tidakgovernment termasuk pembebasan lahan bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund acquisition (Bappenas, 2015). The development of strategic (Bappenas, into 2015). strategis into the Indonesian bond market reached the Pengembangan Indonesian bondpelabuhan market reached Rp67.64tn adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan ports covers: meliputi: yang Rp43.37tn the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh 1. The construction of international ports with bigger 1. Pembangunan pelabuhan internasional dengan perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp capacity and modern equipment to support export kapasitas yang lebih besar dan peralatan modern that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance activities, especially commodity, so that these port untuk mendukung kegiatan ekspor, terutama pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd can function as international seaport-hubs. komoditas, sehingga pelabuhan ini bisa berfungsi in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In 2. Increasing ports' draft to a minimum of -12m. sebagai pelabuhan-hub internasional. declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t 3. Increasing feeder ports' draft to a minimum of -7m. 2. Peningkatan kedalaman pelabuhan menjadi require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 4. Improving the facility of main ports. minimum -12m. 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb 5. Providing main ports with adequate port 3. Peningkatan kedalaman pelabuhan pengumpan to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm equipment. menjadi minimum -7m. bond market. bond market. 4. Meningkatkan fasilitas pelabuhan utama. 5. Pengadaan peralatan pelabuhan yang memadai. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

The revitalization of the small-scale shipping lines.


Revitalisasi jalur pelayaran skala kecil.

Page 14 of 28


Page 2 of 16

FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD FIGURE 10.00 16. 24 STRATEGIC PORTS 10.00 GIDN1YR

ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR


9.50 9.50


9.00 9.00


8.50 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.50



6.00 6.00


Source:Bloomberg Bappenas and Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Rp miliar

200,000 FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT


Variable

150,000


18.2% 36.5% 14.7% 25.0% 5.6%

39.0% 4.2% 3.8% 9.9% 43.2%

BI Rate 100,000 Core Inflation (% yoy) Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 CDS-5yr (%) UST-10yr (%) 0 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

3,000


2003

2004

2005

2006

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

2007

Oct-08

Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan

the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanreached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atauoleh sama denganobligasi 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul pendanaan government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BUSINESS OVERVIEW TINJAUAN BISNIS th Plaza Mandiri 28 Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Multifinance Pembiayaan +62 21 526in 3445, Fax seaport : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) Strong General: positioning the industry Posisi yang

10.00

10.00

9.50

9.50

kuat di industri pelabuhan 9.00 9.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN

GIDN7YR

GIDN


pembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat dari sepanjang lima tahun Strategic position as part of theIndustri development of telah Posisi strategis sebagai bagian pembangunan 8.50 8.50 aset bertumbuh dengan tingkatIndonesia. CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Indonesia seaport infrastructure. terakhir, infrastruktur pelabuhan Pelindo I memiliki Pelindo dimana I has jumlah an peranan penting sebagai salah satu pemain kunci dalam important role as one of the key playerskuartal in the development 8.00 8.00 III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, infrastruktur of the nation’s maritime infrastructure program. anjak Four ofpiutang pengembangan pembiayaan tidak mengalamiprogram pertumbuhan yang maritim berarti, Indonesia. sedangkan 7.50 Empat pelabuhan Pelindo I, yaitu Belawan,7.50 Kuala Tanjung, Pelindo I’s ports, i.e. Belawan, Kuala Tanjung, Malahayati, pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan Malahayati, dan Batam, termasuk daftar 24 pelabuhan yang and Batam, are in the list of 24 ports that will support the 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkatsea-toll CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% akan mendukung konektivitas jalur pelayaran dalam shipping lane connectivity in the government’s program tol laut pemerintah. Dengan program. Given the government intention to accelerate the 6.50 6.50 mempertimbangkan Kinerjaweindustri dalam lima tahun terakhir 2008 dapat keinginan pemerintah yanghingga kuat September untuk mempercepat execution of its key infrastructure projects, believepembiayaan the 6.00 6.00 pelaksanaan beberapa proyek infrastruktur penting, kami government will give the necessary support to Pelindo I dilihat pada Tampilan I. percaya pemerintah akan memberikan dukungan yang with regards to the realization of the Company’s ports diperlukan untuk Pelindo I berkaitan dengan realisasi expansion program, especially on Belawan and Kuala TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR program ekspansi pelabuhan Perseroan, khususnya Tanjung ports which are designed to be international Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri S Source:Tanjung Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas pelabuhan Belawan dan Kuala yang didesain gateways for the western part of Indonesia. Rp miliar menjadi gerbang internasional di wilayah barat Indonesia. 200,000

3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS

Lokasi yang strategis dan posisi pasar yang kuat di Strategic location and strong market position in 3,000 wilayah Sumatra. Pelindo I mengoperasikan 24 pelabuhan Sumatra region. Pelindo I operates 24 ports covering four 150,000 Variable Variable 2,500 yang meliputi empat provinsi yaitu Aceh, Sumatra Utara, provinces: Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, and Riau Islands. 2,000utama Riau, dan Kepulauan Riau. Sebagian besar pelabuhan Most of the Company’s main ports are facing the Malaka BI Rate BI Rate 100,000 Perseroan menghadap Selat Malaka, yang merupakan Strait, one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world with 1,500 salah Core Inflation (% yo Core Inflation (% yoy) satu jalur pelayaran tersibuk di dunia dengan volume lalu container traffic volume estimated at 51 million TEUs per 1,000 Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) lintas container diperkirakan 51 juta TEUs per tahun. Pelindo year. It has dominant position in Sumatra island50,000 given its CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 I memiliki posisi dominan di pulau Sumatra mengingat strategic location and strong hinterland potential. Pelindo I UST-10yryang (%) lokasi yang strategis dan potensi pedalaman besar.(%) operates the third largest port in the country, Belawan0 port, 0 UST-10yr Pelindo I mengoperasikan pelabuhan terbesar ketiga di Estimat which dominates the markets share of container volume in Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Mandiri 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08Sekuritas Estimates Indonesia, yaitu pelabuhan Belawan, yang mendominasi Sumatra island of around 50%. Moreover, the Company’s Total Asset sekitar 50%Looking Pembiayaan Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign the bond flow data, foreign investors pangsaatKonsumen pasar volume container di pulau cargo volume is also supported by the resources-rich the biggest net buyers. Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become of Sumatra. Selain itu, volume kargo Perusahaan juga didukung hinterlands which produce various commodities such as Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment foreign because investorsit b choices bychoices foreign investors oleh sumberinvestment daya alam pedalaman yangby memproduksi palm oil, rubber, plastics, chemical, mineral, etc. Aceh, North provideskelapa attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive yields and the riskand level relatively berbagai komoditas seperti sawit, karet, plastik, Sumatra and Riau are the largest producers of CPO and Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. to other countries. In addition,In bahan kimia,compared mineral, dll. Aceh,developing Sumatra Utara dan Riau rubber with total market share of the total national see the potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see theterbesar potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P adalah produsen CPO dan karet dengan total production of 43% and 27%, respectively, in 2014. The Salah karakteristik industripasar pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) 2016 to investment grade43% (BBB-) after they raisedth sebesar masing-masing dancukup 27% dariafter growing economy of Sumatra Island has alsosatu contributed to daripangsa dengan perbankan.total Hal produksi ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank per outlook to positive last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive last year.2014. Based on the DMO, M nasional pada tahun Pertumbuhan the Company’s cargo volume from thelembaga increasing 2016, foreign in the government 2016, foreign holdings inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanekonomi pulau Sumatra juga telah memberikan kontribusi production and consumption in Sumatra Island. Going reached or equal 38.5% the tot reached Rp622tn orRp622tn equal todari 38.5% ofto the totalof outstand terhadapdarivolume kargo Perseroan meningkatnya forward, the expansion plan of Belawan port pembiayaan and the bersumber perusahaan dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com produksi dan konsumsi di pulau Sumatra. Ke depan, rencana development of Kuala Tanjung hub port will further sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund intoBelawan the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached the Indonesian bonddan market reached perluasan into pelabuhan pembangunan strengthen the market position of Pelindo I, in our view, adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn inperiod the same period last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same last akan year).lebih Interestingly pelabuhan Kuala Tanjung sebagai pelabuhan hub given the substantially larger capacity, less competition in pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan toI foreign inflow, support also came toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh memperkuataddition posisi pasar Pelindo didukung oleh kapasitas Sumatra island due to limited alternative ports, as well as perusahaan pembiayaan. yang jauh lebih investors, such persaingan ascompanies insurancedicompanies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp besar, kurangnya pulau the industry’s high barrier to entry. that theyang ownership of serta insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance companies Sumatra karena alternatif pelabuhan terbatas, pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd barrier to entry yang tinggi. in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In Good operating performance Kinerja bisnis yang baik declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require insurance companies and pension f require insurance companies and pension funds to pl Diversified business. Pelindo I’s revenue source is Bisnis yang beragam. Sumber pendapatan Pelindo I 20-30% of their investments in government b 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have dominated by container terminal services of around 39-46% didominasi oleh pelayanan terminal container sekitar 39to the increasing role of localterakhir. in th to the increasing role of local investors ininvestors the governm of total revenue in the last five years. However, in addition 46% dari total pendapatan dalam lima tahun bond market. bond market. to that, Pelindo I also provides a wide range of port services, Namun, selain itu, Pelindo I juga menyediakan berbagai which cover cargo services (loading/unloading, pile-up services, dry and liquid bulk terminal services, etc.), ship services (docking, mooring, pilotage, and delay services),


layanan pelabuhan, yang meliputi pelayanan barang (bongkar/muat, jasa pile-up, layanan terminal curah kering dan cair, dll), pelayanan kapal (jasa labuh, jasa tambat,

Page 16 of 28


Page 2 of 16

ASDF | 17 Februari 2009 FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD special terminal services (dedicated terminal), and others pemanduan dan jasa penundaan), pelayanan terminal 10.00 10.00 GIDN1YR GIDN3YRkhusus (terminal GIDN5YR khusus/untuk kebutuhan sendiri), dan lainGIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR such as equipment rental services, utilities services, TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk container depo, shipyard lain seperti jasa penyewaan peralatan, sewa utilitas, depo 9.50 services, health services, etc. Of 9.50 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI the totalGeneral: revenue, the four main services (cargo services, container, Multifinance Pembiayaan +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)jasa galangan kapal, pelayanan kesehatan, dll. 9.00 9.00 container terminal, special terminal services, and ship Dari total pendapatan, empat layanan utama (layanan kargo, Industri pembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang limalayanan tahun services) dominate the Company’s revenue by around 80%. telah terminal container, layanan terminal khusus, dan 8.50 8.50 kapal) mendominasi Perseroan sekitar 80%. pada terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh denganpendapatan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga 8.00 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, FIGURE 17. REVENUE BREAKDOWN pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan Others Cargo services 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha services dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan Special terminal services Ship/vessel 7.00 7.00 denganterminal tingkatservices CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% Container 100%

6.50 6.50

18%

80%

7%

Kinerja industri pembiayaan 19% dalam lima 19%tahun terakhir 20% hingga September 2008 dapat 20% dilihat pada Tampilan I.


90%

6.00 6.00

8%

8%

12%

60%

13% 16% TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA12% INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR 12% 11%

50%

20%

70%

8%

19% Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar

14%

14%

14%

200,000 FIGURE40% 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT 30% 20% 10%


Variable

39%

150,000 45%

BI Rate 100,000 0% Core Inflation (% yoy) 2011 2012 Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 CDS-5yr (%) Source: Company UST-10yr (%) 0

3,000

46% Before

After42% 43% Investment Grade Investment Grade 18.2% 36.5% 2013 14.7% 25.0% 5.6%

2014

39.0% 4.2% 2015 3.8% 9.9% 43.2%

2,500 2,000 1,500

1,000 500

Maintaining good operating performance amidst the Mempertahankan kinerja operasi yang baik 0di tengah Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates challenging economic condition. The Company has been2003 kondisi yang Perusahaan 2004 ekonomi 2005 2006 penuh 2007 tantangan. Oct-08 able to maintain profitability margin at good levels despite telah mampu mempertahankan margin profitabilitas pada Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan of the adverse economic condition. Although the tingkat yang baik di tengah kondisi ekonomi yang the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutangmemburuk. Kartu Kredit volume kargo dan container Company’s cargo and container volume has slowed down Meskipun investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan in the lastattractive two years, EBIT and margin strong between Perusahaan melambat dalam dua tahun relatif terakhir, EBIT provides yields theremained risk level is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia 38-39% in 2012-2015 while EBITDA margin was stable at 46margin tetap kuat antara 38-39% di 2012-2015, sedangkan compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami 48%the in potential 2012-2015, for 2014 41.4% due EBITDA padarating 46-48% di 2012-2015, see for except Indonesia's ratingofupgrade by S to & Pthe in melihatmargin adanya tetap potensistabil upgrade Indonesia oleh S&P large one time post-retirement benefit expense. The strong kecuali 2014 sebesar 41.4% karena adanya beban imbalan Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after they raised the di tahun 2016 menjadi investment grade (BBB-) setelah profitability margin was attributable to the well-contained insidental pasca-kerja yang cukup besar. Margin dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. increase in operating increasing tariffs,bond and2008 also the menyatakan profitabilitas baik78% dari kenaikan biaya 2016, foreign holdingscost, in the government market Berdasarkan DMO, per 11diperoleh May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang bahwa yang sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanRupiah Rp622tn depreciation against the ofUS$ as some of the operasional yang terkendali, peningkatan tarif, dan38.5% juga reached or equal to 38.5% the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama dengan perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dariRupiah dana perbankan, disusulkarena oleh pendanaan obligasi Company’s service are foreign in US$ while transaction depresiasi terhadap sebagian foreign biaya government bonds.charges Note that fund real inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasiUS$ pemerintah. Tercatat, sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas was in Rupiah. The portion of direct cost to revenue was layanan Perusahaan dikenakan dalam US$ sementara into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan alsoRp43.37tn relatively stable 61-62% in 2012-2015 with salary and transaksi adalah dalamytd Rupiah. Porsi biaya langsung kepada (vs. in the at same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang depreciation expense dominating 34-41% of the total direct pendapatan juga relatif stabil pada 61-62% pada 2012-2015 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain cost in 2012-2014. On another front, in terms of pembiayaan. speed of dengan dan beban penyusutan mendominasi 34-41% perusahaan investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds. semakingajibesarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada services, Pelindo I has shown its ability to improve handling dari total biaya langsung pada 2012-2014. Pada sisi lain, Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti time (waiting and berthing time) to at Rp44.3tn its majorytdports dalam hal kecepatan Pelindo I telahTercatat, menunjukkan pension funds increased significantly (vs. perusahaan asuransilayanan, dan dana pensiun. porsi supported by equipment improvement and more efficient kemampuannya untuk meningkatkan penanganan waktu Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun operating deposit procedures. Therates, shorter (menunggu berlabuh) di pelabuhan utama didukung declining interest thehandling new OJKtime rulesshould that meningkat dan sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. support the Company’s volume growth going forward on oleh perbaikan peralatan dan prosedur operasi yang faktor lebih require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain top of the expected higher port capacity. efisien. Waktu penanganan yang lebih pendek akan 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan mendukung pertumbuhan volume Perseroan ke depan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan selain penambahan kapasitas pelabuhan. bond market. danadari pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


FIGURE 18. STRONG AND STABLE OPERATING MARGIN

bn TINJAUANRpINDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Direct Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Revenue (LHS) cost (LHS)

EBIT margin(RHS)

Plaza2,500 Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Industri Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 39%

2,000 1,561 1,500 1,000

10.00

9.50

9.50

9.00 39%

9.00

40%

2,343

2,097

38%

10.00

32%

Source: Company

2013

2014

Call

150,000 GT (juta)

Bongkar Muat Barang Bongkar Muat Petikemas

2015

61.679


2011

2012

2013

61.552

70.311

65.016

139.953 122.766 165.185 147.197 165.179 161.402

100,000 Ton (ribu)


78.440

77.629

80.643

73.808

77.141

74,088

Box 50,000 (ribu)

899

1.034

1.063

1.085

1.083

982

Teus (ribu) 0

1.111

1.278

1.304

1.335

1.323

1.197

Orang

2003 5.020

2004 5.460

2005 5.3462006 5.130 20075.219 Oct-08 5.308


Total Asset

3,500 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS 2014 2015 3,000 74.106 70.258 Variable Variable 2,500

PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors the biggest net buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become of Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors investment choices by foreign investors because it b FIGURE 20. IMPROVING HANDLING TIME IN MAJOR PORTS providesyields attractive yields and theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the risk level relatively Waiting time (hour) Sumber: Bank Indonesia 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see the potential for Indonesia's rating see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade byupgra S&P Belawan 2,76 2,45 2,27 2,08 1,94 0,85 Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth Dumai 2,23perbankan. 2,15 Hal ini 1,39dibuktikan 0,63 dari 0,27 statistik 0.12 Bank dengan lembaga data per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year. Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreign0.00 in the government 2016, foreign holdings inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 bahwa sebanyak 78%0,00 sumber pendanaan perusahaanPekanbaru 0,00yang menyatakan 0,03 0,24 0,05 reached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana0,86 perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi BICT 1,08 1,05 1,43 1,18 0,88 government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached into the Indonesian bond market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). In (vs.2013 Rp43.37tn in the same Berthing time (hour) 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 period last year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such insurance companies and Belawan 82,27 81,92 83,75 investors, 81,40 70,81 57,80ascompanies such as insurance and pension funp that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance Dumai 53,23 72,45 66,66 70,82 67,69 54.62 pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd Pekanbaru 81,62 45,49 26,16 Rp12.3tn 24,62 inRp12.3tn 30,67same in19.09 the same lastaddition year). Intoa the period lastperiod year). In declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t BICT 41,51 47,20 36,63 31,86 26,85 28,03 require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf Source: Company 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market. Source: Company


6.50


Rp miliar FIGURE 19. OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE 200,000 2010 Kunjungan Kapal

GIDN


29%

2012

Arus Penumpang

GIDN7YR

31%September 2008 dapat Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga 30% 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I.

-

GIDN

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat 38% 38% sepanjang lima tahun 1,891 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 37% 21.93%, sehingga pada 8.00 dikucurkan, 36% 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam1,449 hal pembiayaan yang 1,407 pembiayaan anjak yang berarti, sedangkan 1,181piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan 35% 7.50 7.50 34% pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 950 33% 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing33% 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 6.50

500

GIDN1YR

Page 18 of 28


Page 2 of 16



Key seaport projects 10.00 10.00

GIDN1YR

Proyek pelabuhan utama

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Belawan port. TheINDUSTRI BelawanMandiri portSekuritas currently handles Pelabuhan Belawan.


Pelabuhan Belawan saat ini 9.50 9.50 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia BI RATE RATE BI multipurpose/general cargo terminal as GIDN7YR well as containerGIDN10YR menangani terminal multiguna/kargo umum serta layanan Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00 its domestic and international terminal services through terminal container melalui terminal peti kemas domestik 9.00 container terminal, i.e. TPKDB and Industri BICT. The planned telah dan internasional, yaitu TPKDB dan Rencana ekspansi pembiayaan mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesatBICT. sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 port covers improvement and 8.50 expansion of Belawan pelabuhan Belawan meliputi perbaikan dan pembangunan terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada construction of new8.00 sub-terminals at the existing baruDalam di fasilitas pelabuhan yang yang dikucurkan, ada, serta 8.00 kuartal III port 2008area mencapaisub-terminal Rp153.6triliun. hal pembiayaan (figure 9) as well as the national scale projects which are proyek berskala nasional yang merupakan perluasan dari pembiayaan anjak piutangpelabuhan tidak mengalami pertumbuhan the extension of Belawan peti kemas Belawanyang (faseberarti, 1 dansedangkan 2) dan 7.50 port container terminal (phase 1 7.50 guna usahasaluran dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan and 2) and Belawan navigation channel:pembiayaan konsumen, sewa pembangunan navigasi Belawan: 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 1. Pelabuhan container Belawan fase 1. Biaya 1. Belawan container port phase 1. The investment 6.50 investasi proyek ini sebesar Rp2.3 triliun dengan cost of this6.50 project is worth Rp2.3 trillion, with Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam durasi lima tahun terakhir hingga dari September 2008 2019. dapat proyek diperkirakan 2016 hingga estimated project duration from 2016 to 2019. 6.00 6.00 dilihat Tampilan Pelabuhan container Belawan fase 1 ini diharapkan Belawan container port phase 1 ispada expected to I. mulai beroperasi di 2H2019. Pemilik proyek commence operation in 2H2019. The project container Belawan fase TERAKHIR 1 adalah owner of Belawan container TAMPILAN port phase 1. 1 is the KINERJA INDUSTRI pelabuhan PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN pemerintah dan Pelindo 1. government and Pelindo 1. Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliarcost 2. Pelabuhan container Belawan fase 2. Biaya 2. Belawan container port phase 2. Investment investasi proyek ini sebesar Rp 2.7 triliun dengan of this FIGURE project2. SHAPLEY worth ofVALUE Rp2.7 trillion with 200,000 3,500 ANALYSIS RESULT durasi proyek diperkirakan dari tahun 2016 hingga estimated project duration from 2016 to 2018. Significance Weight 3,000 2018. Pelabuhan container Belawan fase 1 ini Belawan container port phase 2 is expected to 150,000 Variable Before After diharapkan mulai beroperasi di 1H2019.2,500 Pelindo I commence operation in 1H2019. Pelindo I has Investment Grade Investment Grade telah membentuk entitas yang dikendalikan formed a joint controlled entity named PT Prima 2,000 BI Rate 18.2% 39.0% PT Prima Terminal Petikemas 100,000 bersama bernama Terminal Petikemas (PTP) with 2 state-owned 1,500 Core Inflation yoy) 36.5% 4.2%2 perusahaan milik negara, PT (PTP) dengan companies, PT Hutama Karya (%(Persero) and PT 1,000 Karya ChangetoIDR/USD (%yoy) 14.7% 3.8% (Persero) dan PT Wijaya Hutama Karya Wijaya Karya (Persero), develop the50,000 Belawan (Persero), untuk mengembangkan pelabuhan container port phase 2. Pelindo 1 owns 70% stakes CDS-5yr (%) 25.0% 9.9% 500 container Belawan fase 2. Pelindo 1 memiliki 70% in PTP. PTP has started the civil works of this UST-10yr (%) 5.6% 43.2% 0 0 saham di PTP. PTP telah memulai proyek pekerjaan project with completion of around 5%. Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates 2004 sipil2005 2006kemajuan 2007 sekitar Oct-08 ini dengan 5%. 3. Belawan navigation channel. The project aims to2003 (100-140 anddata, deepen theinvestors channelTotal for Asset Jika3.dilihat Saluran navigasi Belawan. Proyek ini bertujuan Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha Looking widen at the bond fundm)flow foreign are dari data aliran dana, investor asing merupakan portnet Belawan 1 andhas 2 (-12 up toone -14 of mwls) memperluas m) dan memperdalam the biggest buyers.phase Indonesia become the pembeliuntuk terbesar di pasar(100-140 SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit withchoices total by investment value of because Rp1.2 trillion. saluran untukpihak pelabuhan Belawan tahap 1 dan 2 (investment foreign investors it still satu tujuan investasi asing karena masih memberikan is still the of filing low for 12 hinggadan -14 mwls) dengan nilai investasi provides Pelindo attractive1 yields andinthe riskprocess level is relatively yield menarik tingkat risikonya relatif sebesar rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia concession for thiscountries. project. In addition, we Rp1.2 negara triliun. berkembang Pelindo 1 lainnya. masih Selain dalam itu,proses compared to other rights developing dibandingkan kami izin konsesi pemerintah untuk see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihatpengajuan adanya potensi upgradekepada rating Indonesia oleh S&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya cukup erat proyek 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun 2016ini.menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. The Belawan container port phase 1 and 2 will add around Pelabuhan container Belawan tahap 1 dan 2 akan 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaan900,000 TEUs of additional port capacity from the current menambah kapasitas dermaga sekitar 900.000 TEUs dari saat reached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atauoleh sama denganobligasi 38.5% perusahaan dari dana disusul 1,200,000 TEUs. Jetty length will also increasepembiayaan by 700 bersumber ini 1.200.000 TEUs.perbankan, Panjang dermaga jugapendanaan akan meningkat government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign pinjaman-pinjaman sebesar Data pelabuhan ini mempertegas meters. Meanwhile the port’s draft will sebesar increase 11% to -12dan mwls 700 meter. lainnya Sementara itu, 12.1%. kedalaman akan into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia to -14 mwls from the existing’s -10 mwls, hence,keterikatan/ketergantungan allowing it meningkatyang menjadi -12 mwls sampai dengan -14 mwls dari adanya cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang to handle larger container vessels. kedalaman -10 mwls pada saat komposisi ini, sehingga memungkinkan 2 menunjukkan sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support alsopembiayaan came from terhadap onshore perbankan. samaTampilan tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain untuk menangani kapal container dengan ukuran lebih pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada besar. Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


FIGURE 21. BELAWAN PORT EXPANSION



10.00

10.00

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN

GIDN7YR

GIDN

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 7.00 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% 6.50

6.50


Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I. TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR


Rp miliar 200,000


150,000


100,000 50,000 Source: Company

0

2003

2004

2005

2006


2007

Oct-08

Pembiayaan Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign atKonsumen the bond flow data, foreign investors Kuala Tanjung port. The Kuala Tanjung seaportTotal is Asset Pelabuhan Looking Kuala Tanjung. Pelabuhan Kuala Tanjung the biggest net buyers. Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become of designed to be an integrated port and will function asAnjak the Piutangdidesain untuk menjadi pelabuhan terpadu dan akan Kartu Kredit investment choices foreign investorsit b investment choices foreign investors because hub port and the gateway for international trade in the berfungsi sebagai pelabuhan hubby dan pintu by gerbang untuk provides attractive yields and the level isl attractive yields and the risk level isrisk relatively western part of Indonesia. Kuala Tanjung port has naturally perdaganganprovides internasional di Indonesia bagian barat. Kuala Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to otherkedalaman developing countries. compared to other dengan developing countries.alami In addition,In deep draft of around -14 mwls, hence, it is suitable to Tanjung memiliki pelabuhan see the potential Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P handle large container vessels up to 10,000-14,000 TEUs. sekitar -14 mwls, karenanya, sangat cocokfor untuk menangani Salahinvolves satu karakteristik industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 hingga to investment grade 2016 tobesar investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth The development of Kuala Tanjung port several darikapal container 10,000-14,000 TEUs. dengan lembaga perbankan.Pengembangan Hal ini dibuktikan dari data Kuala statistik Bank per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year. Based onmelibatkan the DMO, M stages, which include the developments of multipurpose pelabuhan Tanjung 2016, foreign in the government 2016, foreign holdings inholdings the government bond mar 2008 yang bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanterminal, integrated industrial estateSeptember (around 3,000 ha), menyatakan beberapa tahap yang meliputi pengembangan terminal reached Rp622tn equalofto 38.5% of the tot reached Rp622tn orterpadu equal to or 38.5% the total outstand dedicated terminal (hub port), andperusahaan integrated urban bersumber multiguna, industri (sekitar 3.000 ha), pembiayaan dari kawasan dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Noteperumahan that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com residential area. All of these projects sebesar are scheduled to be dedicated terminal (hub port), dan daerah 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into Indonesian bond market reached into proyek the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn completed in 2023. Pelindo I has formed a joint controlled terpadu. Semua ini the dijadwalkan akan selesai pada adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn theentitas same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly entity named PT Prima Multi Terminal (PMT) with 2 state2023. Pelindo I telah in membentuk dengan pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to PT foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh owned companies, PT Waskita (Persero) and PT pengendalian bersama bernama Prima multi terminal perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance and investors, such as insurance companies and pension funp Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero), to develop the Kuala (PMT) dengan 2 perusahaan milik negara, PT companies Waskita that the ownership ofuntuk insurance coa thatNotice the ownership of (Persero), insurance companies Tanjung multipurpose terminal. Pelindo 1 owns 55% stakes (Persero) danNotice PT Pembangunan Perumahan pension funds significantly increased Rp4 pensionTerminal funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd in PMT. The total investment value of the multipurpose mengembangkan Multiguna Kualasignificantly Tanjung. the same period lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same period lasttotal year).investasi In terminal project is worth of Rp2.8 trillion. The physical Pelindo 1 memiliki 55% saham diin PMT. Nilai declining deposit interest the rules new O declining deposit interest rates, the rates, new OJK t progress of Kuala Tanjung Multipurpose Terminal has proyek terminal multiguna adalah senilai Rp2.8 triliun. require insurance and pension require insurance and pension funds to plf reached 42.8% in April 2016. PMT is expected to commence Kemajuan pembangunan fisikcompanies Terminal companies Multiguna Kuala 20-30% of theirbulan investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb operation in 2017. Tanjung telah mencapai 42.8% pada April 2016. PMT to thepada increasing role of localininvestors in th to theberoperasi increasing role tahun of local investors the governm diharapkan mulai 2017. bond market. bond market.


Page 20 of 28


Page 2 of 16



FIGURE 10.0022. INTEGRATED KUALA TANJUNG PORT DEVELOPMENT PLAN 10.00 GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR


9.50 9.50


9.00 9.00


8.50 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.00 7.00

6.00 6.00



6.50 6.50




Source: Company


3,000

150,000 Before DEVELOPMENTAfter FIGURE 23. Variable KUALA TANJUNG MULTIPURPPOSE TERMINAL PROGRESS (42.8% Investment Grade Investment Grade PHYSICAL WORKS AS OF 10 APRIL 2016)

2,500 2,000 18.2% BI Rate 39.0% 100,000 1,500 Core Inflation (% yoy) 36.5% 4.2% 1,000 Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 14.7% 3.8% CDS-5yr (%) 25.0% 9.9% 500 UST-10yr (%) 5.6% 43.2% 0 0 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08 Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia

compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaan reached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama dengan 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan Source: Company to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


10.00 10.00 GIDN1YR FINANCIAL OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK TINJAUAN KEUANGAN DAN OUTLOOK TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

GIDN

Profit and Loss Plaza Mandiri 28

GIDN

9.50

th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Laba rugi Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

9.50

GIDN7YR


9.00 9.00 Revenue drivers: the commencement of new ports. We Faktor pendorong pendapatan: Dimulainya operasional pembiayaan mengalami masa pesat sepanjang dimulainya lima tahun forecast the commercial operation ofIndustri Kuala Tanjung and telah pelabuhan yang pertumbuhan baru. Kami memproyeksikan 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Belawan (phase 1 and 2) ports to drive revenue growth in operasional pelabuhan Kuala Tanjung dan Belawan (tahap 1 8.00 8.00 pendapatan kuartal III 2008 mencapaidan Rp153.6triliun. Dalam pertumbuhan hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 2018F onward. Revenue is expected to grow 16.4% CAGR 2) akan mendorong di 2018F over 2016F-2020F, meanwhile EBITDA pembiayaan to grow at 17.9%. diperkirakan akan sedangkan tumbuh anjakOnpiutangdan tidakseterusnya. mengalamiPendapatan pertumbuhan yang berarti, 7.50 7.50 sementara another front, bottom line is forecastpembiayaan to grow bykonsumen, 14.8% 16.4% CAGR selama 2016F-2020F, EBITDA sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan CAGR over 2016F-2020F. Net profit growth is relatively flat tumbuh sebesar 17.9%. Pada sisi7.00 lain, kami 7.00 memperkirakan dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% in 2016F-2018F due to increasing interest expense from the pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 14.8% CAGR selama Company’s bond issuance plan of Rp1 trillion in 2016F and 6.50 datar di 2016F-2020F. Pertumbuhan laba 6.50bersih relatif Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun hingga September 2008 dapat additional debt of Rp2.8 trillion in 2017F. 2016F-2018F karenaterakhir meningkatnya beban bunga dari 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I. rencana penerbitan obligasi Perusahaan sebesar Rp1 triliun pada 2016F dan penambahan utang Rp2.8 triliun pada 2017F. PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI

Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri S and Source: Bloomberg Mandiri Sekuritas

FIGURE 24. EARNINGS PROJECTION Rp miliar Rp bn

200,000

Revenue

6,000

100,000

4,000

2,000 1,000

2,949

2,601

1,316 730

4,767 4,164

742


3,473

50,000

1,524 0


Net Income after Tax

150,000

5,000

3,000

EBITDA

2,202

1,828

2003

832

2004

1,067 2005

2,541

1,267 Source: Mandiri Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Sekuritas Estimates

2006

2007

Oct-08

PembiayaanatKonsumen Guna Usaha Looking at fund theSewa bond fund flow data, foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors the biggest net buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become of Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit 0 foreign because investorsit b investmentinvestment choices bychoices foreignby investors 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In compared to other developing countries. In addition, Source: Company Mandiri Sekuritas estimates see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P Salah satuWekarakteristik industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016profitabilitas to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth Maintaining good profitability margin. expect dari Mempertahankan margin yang baik. Kami dengan with lembaga perbankan.berharap Hal ini Pelindo dibuktikan dari data statistik Indonesia per outlook to lastpengendalian year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M Pelindo I could maintain its good cost control the ratio I dapat mempertahankan 2016, foreign in the total government 2016, foreign holdings inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanof direct cost to total revenue maintained at 59.1-61.7% biaya yang baik dengan rasio biaya langsung terhadap reached equal 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% ofto the totalof outstand between 2016F-2020F. We also perusahaan expect improving pendapatan dipertahankan pada 59.1-61.7% antara 2016Fpembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com economic of scale given the larger port capacity and the 2020F. Kami jugasebesar memproyeksikan akan fund sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya 12.1%. Data Perseroan ini mempertegas into the Indonesian bond market reached into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn more complete terminal services. Withadanya the combination of mengalamiyang peningkatan skala atas ekonomis karena kapasitas keterikatan/ketergantungan cukup (vs. besar perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn inperiod the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same last period year).yang Interestingly strong revenue growth, good cost control, and more pelabuhan yang lebih besar dan layanan terminal pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onsh efficient operation, Pelindo I should be able to maintain lebih lengkap. Dengan kombinasi pertumbuhan perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companies and investors, such as insurance companies and pension funp profitability margin at a good level, in our view. pendapatan yang kuat, pengendalian biaya yang baik, dan Notice that the ownership of insurance coa Notice that the ownership of insurance companies operasional yang lebih efisien, Pelindo I akan mampu pension funds increased significantly to Rp4 pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd mempertahankan margin profitabilitas pada tingkat yang in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In baik, menurut pandangan kami. declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market. Total Asset


Page 22 of 28


Page 2 of 16


FIGURE 1. GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD FIGURE 10.0025. PROFITABILITY MARGIN 10.00 GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

GIDN1YR GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk EBIT margin EBITDA margin Net margin

9.50 % 9.50

Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI 60.0Fax : +62 21 527 Industri Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales)

9.00 9.00

50.6

38.1

7.5030.0 7.50 7.00 7.00

20.0

52.9

53.3

Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun terakhir, dimana jumlah aset40.1 bertumbuh40.7 dengan tingkat 40.9 CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 39.1 38.3 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, pembiayaan28.1anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 29.9 26.6 25.6kartu kredit 25.2sewa guna pembiayaan konsumen, mengalami pertumbuhan 24.0usaha dan dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%

6.50 6.50



10.0

6.00 6.00

52.6

46.4

8.5050.0 8.50 8.0040.0 8.00

51.7

-

2015

2016F

2017F

2018F

2019F

2020F


Source: Sekuritas estimates Source: Company BloombergMandiri and Mandiri Sekuritas Rp miliar


Balance sheet and cashflow Variable

3,500 Significance Weight Neraca dan arus kas

3,000

150,000

Before After 2,500 Higher gearing ratio. We forecast Pelindo I to record Gearing ratio yang lebih tinggi. Kami memperkirakan Investment Grade Investment Grade increasing outstanding debt in the period of 2016-2017F Pelindo I mencatat peningkatan utang pada periode 2,0002016Rate issuance this 100,000 18.2% 39.0% obligasi Rp1 triliun tahun ini dan due to the Rp1 trillion BI bond year and 2017F karena penerbitan 1,500 Core Inflation yoy) 36.5% 4.2%I akan menambah utang sebesar assumption that Pelindo I will add more (% debt amounting to asumsi bahwa Pelindo 1,000 Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 14.7% Rp2.8 trillion to fund its capital expenditure. Pelindo Rp2.8 triliun untuk 3.8% mendanai belanja modal Perseroan. 50,000plans

to spend capital expenditure of Rp2.5 Perseroan menganggarkan belanja modal sebesar CDS-5yr (%) trillion in 2016F and 25.0% 9.9% 500 Rp2.5 Rp3.9 trillion in 2017F for regular capital expenditure and triliun di 2016F and Rp3.9 triliun di 2017F untuk belanja UST-10yr (%) 5.6% 43.2% 0 0 port expansion. Source: Outstanding loan is forecast to reach its modal regular dan pengembangan pelabuhan. Pinjaman Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08 peak in 2017F of Rp3.86 trillion. In terms of gearing ratio,2003 diperkirakan akan mencapai puncaknya pada 2017F sebesar DER is forecast to touch the highest level at 74.6% in 2017F Rp3.86 triliun. Dalam hal gearing ratio, Konsumen SewaDER Guna Usaha Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingdiperkirakan merupakan before gradually declining to 45.7% in 2020F in line with menyentuh level tertinggi di 74.6% di 2017F the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesiasebelum menjadisecara salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit the maturing bank loan increasing equity as a result of bertahap menurun menjadi 45.7%karena di 2020F sejalan dengan investment choices by and foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing masih memberikan profit accumulation. pinjaman bank yang temporisikonya dan peningkatan provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik danjatuh tingkat relatif ekuitas rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia dari akumulasi laba bersih. compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah FIGURE 26. LEVERAGE dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond market Berdasarkan DMO, per 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September 2008 bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanTotal debt yang (LHS) menyatakan Debt to Equity ratio (RHS) 4,500.0 80.0% 74.6% reached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atau sama dengan 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi 3,828.6 3,806.6 3,800.0 3,857.9 4,000.0 70.0% government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas 3,500.0 into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk60.0% ke pasar obligasi Indonesia 63.8% adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang 3,000.0 last year). Interestingly, in 50.0% 53.9% 2 menunjukkan pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain 2,500.0 45.7% pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana 40.0% asing yang masuk, juga ada 2,000.0 28.7% Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari 30.0% para investor lokal seperti 1,500.0 1,270.0 ytd (vs. pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi 20.0% 15.2% Rp12.3tn in the same period1,000.0 last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun 547.5 10.0% sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. declining deposit interest rates, meningkat sangat signifikan 500.0 the new OJK rules that require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 0.0% 0.0 2015 2016F have led 2017F 2018F 2019F deposito 2020F yang terus turun, adanya peraturan 20-30% of their investments in government bonds suku bunga to the increasingSource: role ofCompany local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan and Mandiri Sekuritas estimates bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16



Cash flow protection to remain sound. Due to the Proteksi arus kas yang tetap10.00 kuat. Karena penambahan 10.00 GIDN GIDN1YR significant loan addition in 2016-2017F, the credit metric of utang yang signifikan pada 2016-2017F, indikator kualitas TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 9.50 9.50melemah Pelindo I is forecast to weaken in the medium term with kredit Pelindo I diperkirakan akan dalam jangka Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN GIDN7YR interest General: coverage ratio (EBITDA to interest expense) to menengah dengan interest coverage ratio (EBITDA terhadap Multifinance Pembiayaan +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00 9.00 decline to a minimum of 4.8x in 2018F, while debt to beban bunga) menurun ke paling rendah 4.8x di 2018F, mengalami total masa hutang pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun EBITDA will increase to a maximum ofIndustri 2.5x inpembiayaan 2017F. Free telah sementara terhadap EBITDA akan 8.50 meningkat 8.50 jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga cash flow (operating cash flow after terakhir, paymentdimana for capital menjadi maksimal 2.5x di 2017F. Free cash flow (arus pada kas 8.00 expenditure) is expected to record kuartal positif IIInumbers in operasi setelah pembayaran untuk belanja modal) 8.00 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, 2018F, in-line with the cash inflowpembiayaan coming from kembali positif di yang 2018Fberarti, sejalan sedangkan dengan anjakthe piutang diharapkan tidak mengalami pertumbuhan 7.50berasal 7.50 commencement of the Kuala Tanjungpembiayaan and Belawankonsumen, (phase sewa peningkatan arus kas masuk yang dari dimulainya guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 1 and 2) ports. After that, we expect the Company to be operasional pelabuhan Kuala Tanjung dan 7.00 Belawan (tahap 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% able to accumulate cash from its port operation and 1 dan 2). Setelah itu, kami memperkirakan Perseroan untuk Pelindo I should be able to have enough cash to pay for the dapat mengakumulasi kas dari 6.50operasional 6.50 kegiatan Kinerja industri pembiayaanpelabuhan dalam lima tahun terakhir akan hinggamemiliki September 2008cukup dapat maturing Rp1 trillion debt in 2021F (assumption: 5 yr bond dan diperkirakan kas yang 6.00 6.00 tenor). The ratio of EBITDA to interest expense short I. untuk membayar jatuh tempo hutang obligasi sebesar Rp1 dilihat pada and Tampilan term debt (including current maturities of long term debt) triliun di 2021F (asumsi tenor obligasi 5 tahun). Rasio is forecast to be maintained above 1x; TAMPILAN the ratio significantly EBITDA terhadap bebanDALAM bunga dan jangka pendek 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN LIMAutang TAHUN TERAKHIR declined to 1.8x in 2020F from 5.7x in 2019F due to the (termasuk hutang jangka panjang yang akan jatuh tempo Source:and Bloomberg and Mandiri S Mandiri Sekuritas maturity date of the Rp1 trillion bonds in 2021F. Rp miliar kurang dari setahun) Source: kami Bloomberg proyeksikan dapat dipertahankan di atas 1x; rasio ini secara 3,500 signifikan 200,000 FIGURE 2.VALUE SHAPLEY VALUERE AN FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY ANALYSIS menurun menjadi 1.8x di 2020F dari 5.7x di 2019F karena 3,000 pada adanya Rp1 triliun obligasi yang akan jatuh tempo 150,000 Variable Variable 2021F. 2,500 FIGURE 27. CASH FLOW PROTECTION AND CASH BALANCE 100,000 EBITDA/interest expenses (x) Debt to EBITDA (x)

2015

2016F

2017F

2018F

24.4

13.2

6.3

4.8 2.1

50,000

0.5

1.0

2.5

EBITDA/interest expense + ST debt including current maturities of LT debt (x)

0 3.6

4.2

5.7

Operating cash flow (Rp billion)

1,026 2003

1,226 2004

4.5

2005 1,230 2006

2,000 BI Rate BI Rate 1,500 2019F 2020FInflation (% yo Core Core Inflation (% yoy) 5.8 6.7 1,000 Change IDR/USD (% Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 1.7 1.5 CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 (%) UST-10yr (%) 5.7 1.8 0 UST-10yr

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimat Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates 1,408 1,782 2,093

2007

Oct-08

(2,677) atKonsumen 4 at fund 340 886data, Pembiayaan Guna Usaha Looking theSewa bond fund flow foreign Looking the bond flow data, foreign investors the biggest net buyers. has Indonesia hasone becom the biggest net buyers. Indonesia become of 926 901 1,219 2,098 Kartu Kredit foreign because investorsit b investmentinvestment choices bychoices foreignby investors Source: Company and Mandiri Sekuritas estimate providesyields attractive yields theisrisk level isl provides attractive and the riskand level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanreached equalofto 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% the totalof outstand perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond marketRp67.64tn reached into the Indonesian bond market reached adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn the same last year). In (vs. Rp43.37tn in the sameinperiod last period year). Interestingly pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came addition toaddition foreign inflow, support also came from onsh perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp that the ownership of companies insurance coa Notice thatNotice the ownership of insurance pension funds significantly increased significantly Rp4 pension funds increased to Rp44.3tnto ytd in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In declininginterest depositrates, interest the rules new O declining deposit the rates, new OJK t require companies insurance companies andfunds pension require insurance and pension to plf 20-30% of their investments in government 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb to the increasing of localininvestors in th to the increasing role of localrole investors the governm bond market. bond market. Free Cash Flow (Operating CF after capex)

Cash balance - YE 31 December (Rp billion)

486 Total Asset

(1,294)

1,479 Anjak Piutang 1,016


Page 24 of 28


Page 2 of 16



10.00 10.00 Key risks GIDN1YR GIDN3YR RisikoGIDN5YR GIDN5YR GIDN1YR GIDN3YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk






9.50 9.50 Plaza 28th Floor, sensitive Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia  Sektor pelabuhan dianggap sensitif terhadap GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE Seaport sector isMandiri considered to economic BI Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) perubahan ekonomi. Kondisi ekonomi global dan changes. The 9.00 unfavorable global and domestic 9.00 domestik yang kurang baik mengakibatkan economic conditions might lead to slowerpembiayaan throughput telah mengalami Industri masa pertumbuhan pesatdapat sepanjang lima tahun 8.50 volume throughput yang melambat yang volume which 8.50 will result in lower revenue than we terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada mengakibatkan penurunan pendapatan dari yang expected. 8.00 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, diharapkan sebelumnya. pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan 7.50  guna Proyek pelabuhan Perusahaan, yaitu Kuala pertumbuhan Tanjung dan The Company’s7.50 seaport projects, i.e. Kuala Tanjung and sewa pembiayaan konsumen, usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami Belawan (tahap 1 dan 2) adalah proyek skala besar Belawan (phase7.00 1 and 2), are large scale projects which 7.00 dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25% yang akan melibatkan beberapa pemangku would involve several stakeholders and require long kepentingan dan memerlukan jangka waktu yang lama 6.50 time frames to6.50 be completed (especially the Kuala industritopembiayaan dalam lima diselesaikan tahun terakhir(terutama hingga September 2008 Kuala dapat untuk pelabuhan Tanjung integrated port) as theyKinerja are planned be 6.00 6.00 Tanjung) karena akan dibangun dalam beberapa tahap. Tampilan built in several stages. Hence,dilihat the pada project could I. Oleh karena itu, proyek-proyek ini berpotensi potentially face project delays as well as cost overrun menghadapi penundaan serta kelebihan dalam during the implementation of various stages. TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUNbiaya TERAKHIR pelaksanaan tahapan pembangunan.




 Perlambatan traffic dan keterlambatan proyek akan Slowing traffic and project delay will lead to lower 200,000 3,500 dari FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT menyebabkan pendapatan yang lebih rendah revenue from the previously projected, which will lead Significance Weight proyeksi sebelumnya, yang akan menyebabkan 3,000 rasio to weakening cash flow protection ratio as the interest proteksi arus kas yang melemah karena beban bunga 150,000 expense for the additional debt to finance the project’s Variable Before After 2,500 dari tambahan utang untuk membiayai belanja modal capital expenditure is already affecting the Company’s Investment Grade Investment Grade 2,000 proyek sudah memengaruhi aliran arus kas Perseroan. cash flow stream. BI Rate 18.2% 39.0% 100,000 Core Inflation (% yoy) Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 CDS-5yr (%) UST-10yr (%) 0 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

36.5% 14.7% 25.0% 5.6%

2003

2004

1,500

4.2% 3.8% 9.9% 43.2%

2005

2006

1,000 500 0

2007

Oct-08

Konsumen Sewa Guna Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign investorsTotal are Asset Jika dilihat Pembiayaan dari data aliran dana, investor asingUsaha merupakan the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Anjak Piutang Kartu Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it still satu tujuan investasi pihak asing karena masih memberikan provides attractive yields and the risk level is relatively low yield menarik dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun pembiayaan 2016 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah dengan perbankan. mereka Hal ini dibuktikan data menjadi statistik Bank per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO,lembaga per 11 May menaikkan dari outlook positifIndonesia tahun lalu. 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanreached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atauoleh sama denganobligasi 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul pendanaan government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow fund yang masuk ke pasar obligasi Indonesia adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in mencapai Rp67.64tn ytd (vs. Rp43.37tn pada periode yang pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and dukungan yang berasal dari para investor lokal seperti pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.





Page 2 of 16


FIGURE 28. FINANCIAL PROJECTION

TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Balance sheet


31 December (Rp billion) Cash & cash equivalent Short-term Investment Trade receivables Non-trade receivables Inventories - Net Other current assets Total current assets

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

10.00

10.00

9.50

9.50

2018F 9.00

2019F 9.00

GIDN1YR

GIDN

GIDN7YR

GIDN

2020F

949pembiayaan 1,097 telah 1,273 1,479 masa1,016 926 pesat901 1,219lima tahun 2,098 Industri mengalami pertumbuhan sepanjang 8.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.50 0 0 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada 69 88 86 156 111 127 129 148 168 8.00 dikucurkan, 8.00 kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang 10 9 18 12 13 14 16 18 21 pembiayaan anjak yang sedangkan 9 12 piutang17 tidak mengalami 21 29pertumbuhan 34 7.50 34 berarti, 39 45 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa usaha dan kredit mengalami pertumbuhan 89 68 85 guna 98 107 kartu 115 132 151 172 7.00 7.00 1,126 1,478 1,767 1,276 1,213 1,575 2,504 dengan tingkat1,274 CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% 1,217 dan 12.25%

Gross fixed assets

3,713

3,808

3,993

4,337

6,106

7,400

Less accumulated depreciation

(776)

(921)

(1,074)

(1,253)

(1,572)

(1,944)

6.50 (2,378)

6.50 (2,885)

(3,476)

0

161

309

566

1,340

3,951

4,605

5,214

5,480

133

243

136

75

80

85

98

107

119

Investment in joint control entities

TAMPILAN 1. 4,565 KINERJA4,843 INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM TERAKHIR 4,196 5,492 7,231 10,709 LIMA 11,679TAHUN 12,981 14,532

Trade payable

204

Non-trade payables

Rp miliar

181

259

369

465

28 200,000 47

32

59

64


534

149

208

231

277

212

29

Other current liabilities

161 150,000176 542 612

205

409

446

480

Total current liabilities Long term debt Advances Total Liabilites Issued & Paid Up Capital

Revenue Direct cost Operating Profit (EBIT) Depreciation and Amortization EBITDA Non Operating Profit (Loss) - Net Interest & Financial Charges Net Income before Tax Income Tax Expense (Benefit) - Net Net Income after Tax

3,829

183

227

261

285

307

128 257 1,908 50,000 1,883

354

206

224

241

1,820

1,852

2,753

5,489

1,700

1,700

1,700

1,700

0

0

0

1,349

Others

31 December (Rp billion)

1,112

1,058

0

Retained Earnings (R/E) - Net

Profit and loss

1,186

270

512

Additional Paid in Capital

Total Liabilities & Equity

1,114

512

120

Other LT liabilities

Minority interest

727

831

1,118

427

100,000

0512

0

543

620

708

3,500 69FIGURE 2. 79SHAPLEY 103 VALUERE FIGURE90 2.VALUE SHAPLEY AN ANALYSIS

Short term Debt

Total Equity

9,905

Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat 2,937 2,888 2,920 3,084 4,534 5,456 5,762 6,086 6,429 6.00 6.00 dilihat pada Tampilan I.

Other Assets Total Assets

8,971


Fixed assets -net

8,140

22

73,000 1,000

550 Variable 628 Variable 717 2,500 1,193 1,345 2,527

3,8002,000 2,800 BI Rate BI Rate 4011,500 458 Core Inflation (% yo (% yoy) 276 Core Inflation 316 361 1,000 Change Change IDR/USD (%yoy) 5,627 5,862 6,145IDR/USD (% CDS-5yr (%) CDS-5yr (%) 500 1,700 UST-10yr 1,700(%) 1,700 (%) 0 UST-10yr 3,807

351

0Source: Mandiri 0 Source: Mandiri 0 Estimates 0 Sekuritas Estimat Oct-08Sekuritas 1,756 2003 907 2004 1,507 2005 2,237 2006 2,9802007 3,811 4,879 6,146

Total Asset416 415

Pembiayaan Sewa Guna Usaha Looking at fund the bond fund flow data, foreign 431 Looking 539 atKonsumen 539 539 539investors the539 bond flow data, foreign

biggest net buyers. Indonesia becom 4,476 5,218 7,118 8,385has the biggestthe net buyers.6,050 Indonesia has become one of Kartu Kredit by foreign investors 2 investment 2 2 2 2 investment choices bychoices foreign investors because it b provides attractive yields and theisrisk level isl 4,196 4,565 4,843 5,492 provides 7,231 attractive 10,709 yields 11,679 12,981 14,532 and the risk level relatively Sumber: Bank Indonesia to other developing countries. compared compared to other developing countries. In addition,In see thefor potential for Indonesia's ratingbyupgra see the potential Indonesia's rating upgrade S&P Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup eratafter 2016 to investment grade 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after(BBB-) they raisedth dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik per outlook to last Indonesia year. Based onper the11 DM outlook to positive lastpositive year.Bank Based on the DMO, M 2016, foreignpendanaan in the government 2016, foreign inholdings the government bond mar September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78%holdings sumber perusahaanreached equal 38.5% the tot Rp622tn orRp622tn equal to or 38.5% ofto the totalof outstand 2012 pembiayaan 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017Fdisusul 2018F 2019F 2020F perusahaan bersumber dari reached dana perbankan, oleh pendanaan obligasi government bonds. Note that foreign government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow com sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas fund into the Indonesian bond market reached the Indonesian bond reached Rp67.64tn 1,561 1,891 2,097 2,343 into2,601 2,949 3,473 market 4,164 4,767 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup (vs. besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan Rp43.37tn inperiod the same last year). In in the same last period year).2,818 Interestingly 950 1,168 1,407 1,449 (vs. Rp43.37tn 1,604 1,797 2,079 2,469 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan to foreign inflow, support also came foreign also came from onsh 611 723 690 894 addition 997 toaddition 1,152 inflow, 1,394support 1,695 1,949 perusahaan pembiayaan. investors, such ascompanies insurance companies and investors, such as insurance and pension funp that the of companies insurance coa the of insurance 152 199 201 273 Notice 319thatNotice 372ownership 434 ownership 507 592 pension funds increased Rp4 increased significantly to Rp44.3tn 763 922 891 1,167 pension 1,316 funds 1,524 1,828 2,202significantly 2,541 to ytd in period the same lastaddition year). Intoa Rp12.3tn inRp12.3tn the same lastperiod year). In declining deposit interest the rules new O the new OJK t (87) (7) 50 0 declining 76 deposit 77 interest 60 rates, 63 rates, 66 require insurance and pension and380 pension funds to plf 47 79 61 48 require 100insurance 240 companies 380 companies 380 20-30% of their investments in government bonds haveb 477 637 679 846 20-30% 973of their 990 1,073investments 1,377 in government 1,635 to the of310localininvestors in th increasing role of 241 localrole investors the 122 138 144 146 to the243 247increasing 368 governm bond market.832 market. 355 499 535 700 bond730 742 1,067 1,267 2,288

2,682

3,023

3,639

0

0

0

2

Anjak Piutang

Source: Company and Mandiri Sekuritas estimates


Page 26 of 28


Page 2 of 16



10.00 10.00

FIGURE 29. FINANCIAL PROJECTION - CONTINUED GIDN1YR GIDN1YR

GIDN3YR

GIDN5YR

GIDN3YR GIDN5YR TINJAUAN INDUSTRI Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk

9.50 9.50 Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend.GIDN7YR Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - GIDN10YR 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia GIDN7YR GIDN10YR BI RATE RATE BI Cash flow statement Multifinance Pembiayaan General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri 5711 (Debt Research), +62 21 527/ 5701 (Debt Sales) 9.00 9.00 31 December (Rp billion) 2012pembiayaan 2013 telah 2014 2015 masa 2016F 2017F pesat 2018F 2019Flima 2020F Industri mengalami pertumbuhan sepanjang tahun 8.50 8.50 terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada Net income after tax & NCI 535 700 730 832 1,067 1,267 8.00 8.00 kuartal355III 2008499mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal742pembiayaan yang dikucurkan, Adjustment: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak 180 mengalami319pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan Depreciation, amortization & impairment 121 145 153 372 434 507 592 7.50 7.50 pembiayaan konsumen, sewa usaha dan kredit mengalami pertumbuhan Changes in working capital (45) 202 205 guna146 178 kartu 116 142 208 234 7.00 dengan431 tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% 1,230 dan 12.25% Cash provided by (used7.00 in) operating 846 893 1,026 1,226 1,408 1,782 2,093 Capital expenditure

(345)

6.50 6.50

Cash provided by (used in) investing Changes in capital

(227)

(227) dilihat 529 pada Tampilan I.

(297)

(540)

(2,520)

(3,907)

(1,404)

(1,442)

Dividend and other financing cash flow Cash provided by (used in) financing

(22)

(7)

9

0

1,188

0

0

0

0

0

0

(66)

(105)

(1,382)

(83)

108

0

0

(0)

(196)

723

2,588

(29)

0

TAMPILAN 1. (332) KINERJA(491) INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM TERAKHIR 472 (279) 830 2,588 LIMA (29)TAHUN (22) (7)

Net Changes in Cash Source: Bloomberg and Mandiri Sekuritas 559 Cash and cash equivalent - Beginning

390

148 Rp miliar 949

FIGURE 2. SHAPLEY VALUE ANALYSIS RESULT Cash and cash equivalent - Ending 949 200,000 1,097

176

207

(464)

(89)

(25)

318

879

1,097

1,273

1,479

1,016

926

901

1,219

1,479

1,016

926

901

1,273

Significance Weight Variable

Financial ratio 31 December Profitability (%)

150,000


BI Rate 100,000 Core Inflation (% yoy) Change IDR/USD (%yoy)50,000 2012 2013 CDS-5yr (%) UST-10yr (%) 0 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates

EBIT margin

(1,207)

(540) (2,520) terakhir (3,907)hingga (1,404) (1,442)2008(1,207) dalam lima tahun September dapat


Changes in interest bearing debt 6.00 6.00

(366)

(345) (227) Kinerja industri(366) pembiayaan

39.1

38.2

18.2% 36.5% 14.7% 2014 25.0% 5.6%

2003

32.9

2004

2015

38.1

3,000

After Investment Grade 39.0% 4.2% 3.8% 2016F 2017F 9.9% 43.2%

2005

38.3

2006

1,2193,500 2,098

2007

39.1

2,500 2,000 1,500 2018F

1,000

2019F

500

2020F

0

Oct-08

40.1

40.7

40.9

Total Pembiayaan Konsumen Sewa Guna Usaha Looking at the bond fund flow data, foreign47.3 investors47.6 are Asset41.4Jika dilihat dari data aliran dana, investor asing merupakan EBITDA margin 46.4 50.6 51.7 52.6 52.9 53.3 the biggest net buyers. Indonesia has become one of the pembeli terbesar di pasar SUN. Indonesia menjadi salah Net margin 22.7 26.4 25.5 29.9 Kartu28.1 25.2 24.0 25.6 26.6 Anjak Piutang Kredit investment choices by foreign investors because it11.4 still satu tujuan investasi pihak 8.3 asing karena masih 8.7 memberikan ROAA 9.3 11.4 13.6 11.5 7.4 9.2 provides attractive yields and the risk level is17.2 relatively20.7 low yield 21.4 menarik 18.2 dan tingkat risikonya relatif rendah ROAE 19.3 15.5 14.9 16.3 16.5 Sumber: Bank Indonesia compared to other developing countries. In addition, we dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Selain itu, kami see the potential for Indonesia's rating upgrade by S & P in melihat adanya potensi upgrade rating Indonesia oleh S&P Leverage (%) Salahthey saturaised karakteristik dari diindustri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya cukup erat 2016 to investment grade (BBB-) after the tahun 2016 28.7 menjadi investment gradeyang (BBB-) setelah Debt to equity ratio (DER) 57.2 39.8 25.2 15.2 74.6 63.8 53.9 45.7 dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per outlook to positive last year. Based on the DMO, per 11-2.2 May mereka menaikkan outlook menjadi positif36.7 tahun 20.5 lalu. Net debt to equity ratio (Net gearing) 14.4 -18.0 -25.9 5.7 56.7 48.8 2016, foreign holdings in the government bond2008 market Berdasarkan per78% 11 May 2016, kepemilikan asing di September yang menyatakan bahwa DMO, sebanyak sumber pendanaan perusahaanreached Rp622tn or equal to 38.5% of the total outstanding pasar SUN mencapai Rp622tn atauoleh sama denganobligasi 38.5% perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul pendanaan Credit protection (x) government bonds. Note that foreign fund inflow coming dari total outstanding obligasi pemerintah. Tercatat, foreign EBITDA/interest expenses (int.coverage) 16.311% dan 11.6 pinjaman-pinjaman 14.6 24.4 lainnya 13.2sebesar 6.3 4.8 5.8 6.7 sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas into the Indonesian bond market reached Rp67.64tn ytd inflow 3.6 fund yang masuk5.7ke pasar obligasi Indonesia EBITDA/interest+short term debt 3.9 3.2 3.1 4.2 4.5 5.7 1.8 adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup ytd besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan (vs. Rp43.37tn in the same period last year). Interestingly, in (vs. yang Debt to EBITDA 1.7 1.1 0.8mencapai 0.5 Rp67.64tn 1.0 2.5 Rp43.37tn 2.1 pada periode 1.7 1.5 pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan addition to foreign inflow, support also came from onshore sama tahun lalu). Pasar SUN semakin menarik karena selain pembiayaan. investors, such as insurance companiesperusahaan and pension funds. semakin besarnya dana asing yang masuk, juga ada Liquidity ratio (x) Notice that the ownership of insurance companies and berasal dari investor 1.2 lokal seperti Current ratio 2.1 2.1 2.0dukungan 1.6 yang 1.1 1.1 para 1.0 1.0 pension funds increased significantly to Rp44.3tn ytd (vs. perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun. Tercatat, porsi Quick Ratio 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 Rp12.3tn in the same period last year). In addition to the kepemilikan perusahaan asuransi dan dana pensiun declining deposit interest rates, the new OJK rules that meningkat sangat signifikan sebesar Rp44.3tn ytd. (vs. Source: Company and Mandiri Sekuritas estimates require insurance companies and pension funds to place Rp12.3tn pada periode yang sama tahun lalu). Selain faktor 20-30% of their investments in government bonds have led suku bunga deposito yang terus turun, adanya peraturan to the increasing role of local investors in the government OJK baru yang mengharuskan dana kelolaan asuransi dan bond market. dana pensiun masuk ke instrument SUN sebesar 20-30% dari total dana kelolaannya juga mendukung peran investor lokal di pasar SUN.



Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: +62 21 526Mandiri 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5701 (Debt Sales) Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: +62 21 526 3445, +62 21 527 5701 (Debt Sales)

DEBT RESEARCH TEAM

Handy Yunianto Head of Fixed Income Research [email protected] Handy Yunianto 21 5296 9568 Head of+62 Fixed Income Research [email protected] Ali 21 Hasanudin +62 5296 9568 Credit Analyst [email protected] Ali Hasanudin +6221 9629 Credit5296 Analyst [email protected] Yulia Ansari +6221 5296 9629 Credit Analyst [email protected] Yulia Ansari +62 21 5296 9408 Credit Analyst [email protected] Yudistira Yudadisastra +62 21 5296 9408 Credit Analyst [email protected] Yudistira Yudadisastra +62 21 5296 9698 Credit Analyst

[email protected] +62 21 5296 9698

DEBT RESEARCH TEAM

DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM

Abdul MARKET Hadie DEBT CAPITAL TEAM

Leo Putra Rinaldi Economist [email protected] Leo Putra Rinaldi +62Economist 21 5296 9406 [email protected] Wisnu +62 21Trihatmojo 5296 9406 Research Assistant [email protected] Wisnu Trihatmojo +62 21 5296 9544 Research Assistant [email protected] +62 21 5296 9544

Head of Institutional Sales [email protected] Abdul Hadie 21 527 5378 Sales Head +62 of Institutional

Sita Arvianti Institutional Sales [email protected] Sita Arvianti +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] Rininta Rizkia Okitanya +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] Rininta Rizkia Okitanya +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] +62 21 527 5378

[email protected] +62 21 527 5378

Teguh Suwarno Institutional Sales [email protected] Teguh Suwarno +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] +62 21 527 5378

Fonny Supargo Institutional Sales [email protected] Fonny Supargo +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] Mohammad Haikal +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] Mohammad Haikal +62 21 527 5378 Institutional Sales [email protected] +62 21 527 5378

SINGAPORE DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM

Chia Soo Meng Miranti Wulansari SINGAPORE DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Head of Fixed Income Sales & Trading AVP - Institutional Sales [email protected] [email protected] Chia Soo Meng Miranti Wulansari +65 6589 3898 6589 3899Sales Head of Fixed Income Sales & Trading AVP -+65 Institutional [email protected] [email protected] +65 6589 3898 +65 6589 3899

Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Mandiri Sekuritas Plaza Mandiri, 28th Floor A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Jl. Jend. Gatot SubrotothKav. 36-38 Plaza Mandiri, 28 Floor Jakarta 12190 - Indonesia Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36-38 General: +62 21 526 3445 Jakarta 12190 - Indonesia Fax: +62 21 527 5701 (Debt Capital Market) General: +62 21 526 3445 Fax: +62 21 527 5701 (Debt Capital Market)

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