Monetáris makroökonómia. Szabó-Bakos Eszter

Monetáris makroökonómia Szabó-Bakos Eszter

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www.mnb.hu

www.ecb.int

www.federalreserve.gov

Hol tartunk?                                                                                                                                     

                              

Mit tekintünk pénznek?

                  

Vagyonmérleg

Vagyonmérleg Eszközök

Források

A gazdasági szereplő számára értékkel bíró dolgok.

A gazdasági szereplővel szemben fennálló követelések (azaz a gazdasági szereplő tartozásai)

Eszközök összesen

Források összesen

Vagyonmérleg


Források

Mishkin könyv

25000

Élelmiszer

25000


50000

Források összesen

Vagyonmérleg


Források

Mishkin könyv

25000

Élelmiszer

25000


50000

Saját vagyon

Források összesen

50000

50000

Vagyonmérleg X gazdasági szereplő vagyonmérlege Eszközök

Források

Mishkin könyv

25000

Élelmiszer

25000


50000

Saját vagyon

Források összesen

50000

50000

Y gazdasági szereplő vagyonmérlege Eszközök


Források

0

Források összesen

0

Vagyonmérleg X gazdasági szereplő vagyonmérlege Eszközök

Források

Mishkin könyv

25000

Élelmiszer

12500

Követelés Y gazdasági szereplővel szemben

12500


50000

Saját vagyon

Források összesen

50000

50000

Y gazdasági szereplő vagyonmérlege Eszközök Élelmiszer


Források 12500

12500

Tartozás X gazdasági szereplőnek

Források összesen

12500

12500

Mi az a pénzügyi eszköz?

                                      

Értékmérő funkció

     

                        

                        

Vagyontartási eszköz funkció

                                                                         

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          

A pénz nem keverendő össze a...

                                                     

Fizikai tulajdonságok

                                                 

Fizikai forma

                                                                                                                      

Why Are Scandinavians So Far Ahead of Americans in Using Electronic Payments? Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.50

Americans are the biggest users of checks in the world. Close to 100 billion checks are written every year in the United States, and over three-quarters of noncash transactions are conducted with paper. In contrast, in most countries of Europe, more than two-thirds of noncash transactions are electronic, with Finland and Sweden having the greatest proportion of online banking customers of any countries in the world. Indeed, if you were Finnish or Swedish, instead of writing a check, you would be far more likely to pay your bills online, using a personal computer or even a mobile phone. Why do Europeans and especially Scandinavians so far outpace Americans in the use of electronic payments?

First, Europeans got used to making payments without checks even before the advent of the personal computer. Europeans have long made use of so-called giro payments, in which banks and post offices transfer funds for customers to pay bills. Second, Europeans---and particularly Scandinavians---are much greater users of mobile phones and the Internet than are Americans. Finland has the highest per capita use of mobile phones in the world, and Finland and Sweden lead the world in the percentage of the population that accesses the Internet. Maybe these usage patterns stem from the low population densities of these countries and the cold and dark winters that keep Scandinavians inside at their PCs. For their part, Scandinavians would rather take the view that their high-tech culture is the product of their good education systems and the resulting high degree of computer literacy, the presence of top technology companies such as Finland’s Nokia and Sweden’s Ericsson, and government policies promoting the increased use of personal computers, such as Sweden’s tax incentives for companies to provide their employees with home computers. The wired populations of Finland and Sweden are (percentage-wise) the biggest users of online banking in the world Americans are clearly behind the curve in their use of electronic payments, which has imposed a high cost on the U.S. economy. Switching from checks to electronic payments might save the U.S. economy tens of billions of dollars per year, according to some estimates. Indeed, the U.S. federal government is trying to switch all its payments to electronic ones by directly depositing them into bank accounts, in order to reduce its expenses. Can Americans be weaned from paper checks and fully embrace the world of high-tech electronic payments?

Are We Headed for a Cashless Society? Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.52

Predictions of a cashless society have been around for decades, but they have not come to fruition. For example, Business Week predicted in 1975 that electronic means of payment “would soon revolutionize the very concept of money itself,” only to reverse itself several years later. Pilot projects in recent years with smart cards to convert consumers to the use of e-money have not been a success. Mondex, one of the widely touted, early stored-value cards that was launched in Britain in 1995, is only used on a few British university campuses. In Germany and Belgium, millions of people carry bank cards with computer chips embedded in them that enable them to make use of e-money, but very few use them. Why has the movement to a cashless society been so slow in coming?

Although e-money might be more convenient and may be more efficient than a payments system based on paper, several factors work against the disappearance of the paper system. First, it is very expensive to set up the computer, card reader, and telecommunications networks necessary to make electronic money the dominant form of payment. Second, electronic means of payment raise security and privacy concerns. We often hear media reports that an unauthorized hacker has been able to access a computer database and to alter information stored there. Because this is not an uncommon occurrence, unscrupulous persons might be able to access bank accounts in electronic payments systems and steal funds by moving them from someone else’s accounts into their own. The prevention of this type of fraud is no easy task, and a whole new field of computer science has developed to cope with security issues. A further concern is that the use of electronic means of payment leaves an electronic trail that contains a large amount of personal data on buying habits. There are worries that government, employers, and marketers might be able to access these data, thereby encroaching on our privacy. The conclusion from this discussion is that although the use of e-money will surely increase in the future, to paraphrase Mark Twain, “the reports of cash’s death are greatly exaggerated.”

Hogyan mérjük a pénzkínálatot?                                                                                   

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         

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Példa                                                                                                                    

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                          

Fontos fogalmak                                                     

                                              

                        

Pénzmultiplikátor                                                                                                

        

                      

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1. Kereskedelmi bank Eszközök

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Pénzmultiplikátor Központi bank Eszközök Eszközök

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+100

+100

Pénzmultiplikátor                                                                                                                                                       

                                                                    

Pénzmultiplikátor 1. Kereskedelmi bank Eszközök Hitelek Tartalékok

Források +100 +100-50-50

Betétek Refinanszírozási hitelek Egyéb pénzügyi eszközök


+100-50-50

+100

Források összesen


Források

Hitelek

+49

Betétek

Tartalékok

+50



Források összesen

+50+49

Pénzmultiplikátor                                                                                                                                                     

                                       

                                     

Pénzmultiplikátor 2. Kereskedelmi bank Eszközök

Források

Hitelek

+49

Betétek

Tartalékok

+50


+50+49

Egyéb pénzügyi eszközök


Források összesen

3. Kereskedelmi bank Eszközök Hitelek Tartalékok

Források +24,01 +24,5



Források összesen

+24,5+24,01

Pénzmultiplikátor                                                                                                                                                      

                                         

                                          

Pénzmultiplikátor 3. Kereskedelmi bank Eszközök Hitelek Tartalékok

Források +24,01 +24,5

Betétek

+24,5+24,01



Források összesen

4. Kereskedelmi bank Eszközök Hitelek Tartalékok

Források +11,7649 +12,005



Források összesen

+12,005+11,7649

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                                                                                                                                                    

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                                                  

Feladat

                                                                

Feladat

                                   

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                                  

Excess Reserves Ratio, e 0.010

Interest Rate (%)

Interest Rate

20

0.009 0.008 0.007

15 Excess Reserves Ratio

0.006 0.005

10

0.004 0.003 5

0.002 0.001 0.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

F I G U R E 1 The Excess Reserves Ratio e and the Interest Rate (Federal Funds Rate) Source: Federal Reserve: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/h3hist2.txt.

1990

1995

2000

0 2005

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                                  

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                                           

Currency Ratio, c 0.40

Excess Reserves Ratio, e 0.08 End of Final Banking Crisis

0.35

0.07

0.30

0.06

0.25

0.05 c

0.20

0.04

0.15

0.03 Start of First Banking Crisis

0.10 0.05 0.0 1929

e

0.02 0.01 0.0

1930

1931

1932

1933

F I G U R E 5 Excess Reserves Ratio and Currency Ratio, 1929–1933 Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin; Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 333.

Money Supply ($ billions) 29 28 27 26 25 24

M1

23 22

Start of First Banking Crisis

21 20 19 9

End of Final Banking Crisis

Monetary Base

8 7 6 0

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

F I G U R E 6 M1 and the Monetary Base, 1929–1933 Source: Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 333.

thereafter 6. The halt in the upward trend from 1980 to 1993 7. The upward trend from 1994 to 2002

Currency Ratio c WWI

Great Depression

WWII

0.50

0.25

1892

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

F I G U R E 1 Currency-Checkable Deposits Ratio: 1892–2002 Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin and Banking and Monetary Statistics. www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt

1

Pénzmultiplikátor

                                                           

Bankközi kamatláb

                                       

Nyílt piaci műveletek

                                                               

amount of reserves that are supplied by the Fed’s open market operations, called nonborrowed reserves (Rn), and the amount of reserves borrowed from the Fed, called discount loans (DL). The primary cost of borrowing discount loans from the Fed is

F I G U R E 1 Equilibrium in the Market for Reserves Equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the supply curve R s and the demand curve R d at point 1 and an interest rate of i*ff .

Federal Funds Rate

Rs

id

i ff2 i ff*

1

i ff1 Rd

Rn

Quantity of Reserves, R

396

PART IV

Central Banking and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

F I G U R E 2 Response to an Open Market Operation An open market purchase increases nonborrowed reserves and hence the reserves supplied, and shifts the supply curve from R 1s to R 2s . The equilibrium moves from point 1 to point 2, lowering the federal funds rate from i ff1 to i ff2 .

Federal Funds Rate

id i ff1

R1s

R2s

1

2

2

i ff

R1d

Rn1

Federal Funds Rate

Rn2

Federal Funds Rate


A nyílt piaci műveletek előnyei más eszközökkel szemben

                                                

Refinanszírozási (diszkont) hitelek

                                                     

Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate

i d1

R1s

2

id

R2s 1

i ff1

1

i ff1 = i d1 2

R1s 2

2

i ff = i d

R1d Rn


(a) No discount lending

R2s

R1d Rn


(b) Some discount lending

F I G U R E 3 Response to a Change in the Discount Rate In panel a when the discount rate is lowered by the Fed from i 1d to i 2d, the vertical section of the supply curve just shortens, as in R 2s , so that the equilibrium federal funds rate remains unchanged at i ff1. In panel b when the discount rate is lowered by the Fed from i 1d to i 2d, the horizontal section of the supply curve R 2s falls, and the equilibrium federal funds rate falls from i ff1 to i 2ff .

Kötelező tartalékráta

                                      

Historical data and discussion about reserve requirements.

from R 1d to R 2d in Figure 4, moves the equilibrium from point 1 to point 2, and in turn raises the federal funds rate from i 1ff to i 2ff . The result is that when the Fed raises reserve requirements, the federal funds rate rises.2

F I G U R E 4 Response to a Change in Required Reserves When the Fed raises reserve requirements, required reserves increase, which increases the demand for reserves. The demand curve shifts from R 1d to R d2, the equilibrium moves from point 1 to point 2, and the federal fund rate rises from i ff1 to i 2ff .

Federal Funds Rate

id i ff2 1

i ff

R1s 2 1

R2d R1d Rn

2


Because an increase in the required reserve ratio means that the same amount of reserves is able to support a smaller amount of deposits, a rise in the required reserve ratio leads to a decline in the money supply. Using the liquidity preference framework, the fall in the money supply results in a rise in interest rates, yielding the same conclusion in the text that raising reserve requirements leads to higher interest rates.

Federal Reserve System

A Fed-hez vezető út                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                          

                                                                           

The Political Genius of the Founders of the Federal Reserve System Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.50

The history of the United States has been one of public hostility to banks and especially to a central bank. How were the politicians who founded the Federal Reserve able to design a system that has become one of the most prestigious institutions in the United States? The answer is that the founders recognized that if power was too concentrated in either Washington or New York, cities that Americans often love to hate, an American central bank might not have enough public support to operate effectively. They thus decided to set up a decentralized system with 12 Federal Reserve banks spread throughout the country to make sure that all regions of the country were represented in monetary policy deliberations. In addition, they made the Federal Reserve banks quasi-private institutions overseen by directors from the private sector living in that district who represent views from that region and are in close contact with the president of the Federal Reserve bank. The unusual structure of the Federal Reserve System has promoted a concern in the Fed with regional issues as is evident in Federal Reserve bank publications. Without this unusual structure, the Federal Reserve System might have been far less popular with the public, making the institution far less effective.

Appoints three directors to each FRB

Federal Reserve System

Board of Governors Seven members appointed by the president of the United States and confirmed by the Senate

Twelve Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs)

Elect six directors to each FRB

Each with nine directors who appoint president and other officers of the FRB Select

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Seven members of Board of Governors plus presidents of FRB of New York and four other FRBs

Reviews and determines

Federal Advisory Council Twelve members (bankers)

Establish

Directs

Sets (within limits)

Policy Tools

Around 4,800 member commercial banks

Reserve requirements

Open market operations

F I G U R E 1 Formal Structure and Allocation of Policy Tools in the Federal Reserve

Discount rate

338

PART IV

Central Banking and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Seattle

Helena

Portland

1

9 2

Minneapolis

San Francisco

Detroit

7

12

Chicago Omaha

Salt Lake City

Cleveland

10 Denver

Kansas City

Cincinnati St. Louis

Memphis Oklahoma City

Little Rock

El Paso

Federal Reserve branch cities Boundaries of Federal Reserve districts (Alaska and Hawaii are in District 12)

F I G U R E 2 Federal Reserve System Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin.

Culpeper Charlotte

3

Richmond

5

Birmingham Birming Atlanta

6

11

Jacksonville Houston

San Antonio

New York

Philadelphia Baltimore WASHINGTON

Nashville

Dallas

1 Federal Reserve districts Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve bank cities

4 Pittsburgh

Louisville

8 Los Angeles

Boston

Buffalo

New Orleans Miami

A Fed feladatai                                                                                            

Fed-bankok (12 részegység)

                                                                                                

The Special Role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.339

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York plays a special role in the Federal Reserve System for several reasons. First, its district contains many of the largest commercial banks in the United States, the safety and soundness of which are paramount to the health of the U.S. financial system. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts examinations of bank holding companies and state-chartered banks in its district, making it the supervisor of some of the most important financial institutions in our financial system. Not surprisingly, given this responsibility, the bank supervision group is one of the largest units of the New York Fed and is by far the largest bank supervision group in the Federal Reserve System. The second reason for the New York Fed’s special role is its active involvement in the bond and foreign exchange markets. The New York Fed houses the open market desk, which conducts open market operations---the purchase and sale of bonds---that determine the amount of reserves in the banking system. Because of this involvement in the Treasury securities market, as well as its walking-distance location near the New York and American Stock Exchanges, the officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are in constant contact with the major domestic financial markets in the United States. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York also houses the foreign exchange desk, which conducts foreign exchange interventions on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and the U.S. Treasury. Its involvement in these financial markets means that the New York Fed is an important source of information on what is happening in domestic and foreign financial markets, particularly during crisis periods, as well as a liaison between officials in the Federal Reserve System and private participants in the markets.

The third reason for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s prominence is that it is the only Federal Reserve bank to be a member of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Thus the president of the New York Fed, along with the chairman of the Board of Governors, represents the Federal Reserve System in its regular monthly meetings with other major central bankers at the BIS. This close contact with foreign central bankers and interaction with foreign exchange markets means that the New York Fed has a special role in international relations, both with other central bankers

and with private market participants. Adding to its prominence in international circles is that the New York Fed is the repository for over $100 billion of the world’s gold, an amount greater than the gold at Fort Knox.

Finally, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is the only permanent member of the FOMC among the Federal Reserve bank presidents, serving as the vice-chairman of the committee. Thus he and the chairman and vicechairman of the Board of Governors are the three most important officials in the Federal Reserve System.

Tagok                                                                                                                                                        

                                                        

The Role of Member Banks in the Federal Reserve System Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.346

Although the member bank stockholders in each Federal Reserve bank have little direct power in the Federal Reserve System, they do play an important role. Their six representatives on the board of directors of each bank have a major oversight function. Along with the three public interest directors, they oversee the audit process for the Federal Reserve bank, making sure it is being run properly, and also share their management expertise with the senior management of the bank. Because they vote on recommendations by each bank to raise, lower, or maintain the discount rate at its current level, they engage in discussions about monetary policy and transmit their private sector views to the president and senior management of the bank. They also get to understand the inner workings of the Federal Reserve banks and the system so that they can help explain the position of the Federal Reserve to their contacts in the private and political sectors. Advisory councils like the Federal Advisory Council and others that are often set up by the district banks---for example, the Small Business and Agriculture Advisory Council and the Thrift Advisory Council at the New York Fed---are a conduit for the private sector to express views on both the economy and the state of the banking system. So even though the owners of the Reserve banks do not have the usual voting rights, they are important to the Federal Reserve System, because they make sure it does not get out of touch with the needs and opinions of the private sector.

Kormányzótanács                                                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                     

The Role of the Research Staff Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.350

The Federal Reserve System is the largest employer of economists not just in the United States, but in the world. The system’s research staff has around 1,000 people, about half of whom are economists. Of these 500 economists, 250 are at the Board of Governors, 100 are at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the remainder are at the other Federal Reserve banks. What do all these economists do?

The most important task of the Fed’s economists is to follow the incoming data from government agencies and private sector organizations on the economy and provide guidance to the policymakers on where the economy may be heading and what the impact of monetary policy actions on the economy might be. Before each FOMC meeting, the research staff at each Federal Reserve bank briefs its president and the senior management of the bank on its forecast for the U.S. economy and the issues that are likely to be discussed at the meeting. The research staff also provides briefing materials or a formal briefing on the economic outlook for the bank’s region, something that each president discusses at the FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, at the Board of Governors, economists maintain a large econometric model (a model whose equations are estimated with statistical procedures) that helps them produce their forecasts of the national economy, and they too brief the governors on the national economic outlook.

The research staffers at the banks and the board also provide support for the bank supervisory staff, tracking developments in the banking sector and other financial markets and institutions and providing bank examiners with technical advice that they might need in the course of their examinations. Because the Board of Governors has to decide on w ether to approve bank mergers, the research staff at both the board and the bank in whose district the merger is to take place prepare information on what effect the proposed merger might have on the competitive environment. To assure compliance with the Community Reinvestment Act, economists also analyze a bank’s performance in its lending activities in different communities. Because of the increased influence of developments in foreign countries on the U.S. economy, the members of the re-

search staff, particularly at the New York Fed and the Board, produce reports on the major foreign economies. They also conduct research on developments in the foreign exchange market because of its growing importance in the monetary policy process and to support the activities of the foreign exchange desk. Economists also help support the operation of the open market desk by projecting reserve growth and the growth of the monetary aggregates.

Staff economists also engage in basic research on the effects of monetary policy on output and inflation, developments in the labor markets, international trade, international capital markets, banking and other financial institutions, financial markets, and the regional economy, among other topics. This research is published widely in academic journals and in Reserve bank publications. (Federal Reserve bank reviews are a good source of supplemental material for money and banking students.) Another important activity of the research staff primarily at the Reserve banks is in the public education area. Staff economists are called on frequently to make presentations to the board of directors at their banks or to make speeches to the public in their district.

FOMC                                                                                                                                                                             

Green, Blue, and Beige Frederic Miskin (2004) Money, banking and financial markets. p.352

What Do These Colors Mean at the Fed? Three research documents play an important role in the monetary policy process and at Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The national forecast for the next two years, generated by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ Research and Statistics Division, is placed between green covers and is thus known as the “green book.” It is provided to all who attend the FOMC meeting. The “blue book,” in blue covers, also provided to all participants at the FOMC meeting, contains the projections for the monetary aggregates prepared by the Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors and typically also presents three alternative scenarios for the stance of monetary policy (labeled A, B, and C). The “beige book,” with beige covers, is produced by the Reserve banks and details evidence gleaned either from surveys or from talks with key businesses and financial institutions on the state of the economy in each of the Federal Reserve districts. This is the only one of the three books that is distributed publicly, and it often receives a lot of attention in the press.

CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS

Sets agenda

Supervises

Six other members of the Board of Governors

Board staff

Set ( within limits )

Votes and sets agenda

Advises

Vote

Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC )

Set Directs

Reserve requirements

Discount rate

Advises

Advises

F I G U R E 3 Informal Power Structure of the Federal Reserve System

Open market operations

Vote

Five Federal Reserve bank presidents

Függetlenség                                                                                                                      

                                                           

Monetáris makroökonómia. Szabó-Bakos Eszter

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