2012.02.07.
EGY KIS VILÁGTÉRKÉP AZ ERŐFORRÁSOKRÓL
MERRE TART A VILÁG? Gazdasági erőtérkép Versenyképességi rangsorok Hol vagyunk, hova tartunk?
a) Terület b) Népesség c) Nyersanyagok/ arany, olaj d) Jelenlegi gazdasági kibocsátás: GDP e) Gazdasági potenciál: integráltság a világgazdaságba, K+ F, oktatás, életminőség f) Világtrendek - Mo helye
Előadó:Dr. Findrik Mária PhD. CEU professzor, vendégprof a Columbia Egyetemen , USA
1. TERÜLET
TERÜLET
Area (km²)
160,000,000
World
~149,000,000
100%
140,000,000
World
Russia
~ 17,000,000 17 000 000
11 4% 11,4%
120,000,000
Russia
China
~ 9,650,000
6,5%
100,000,000
China USA
80,000,000
India
USA
~ 9,630,000
6,5%
India
~ 3,300,000
2,2%
40,000,000
Europe
EU
~ 4,420,000
3%
20,000,000
Asia
Europe
~ 10,180,000
6,8%
Asia
~ 43,800,000
29,4%
60,000,000
EU
0 1
2
2. NÉPESSÉG Region / country
1990
Share of total 1990 (%)
2000
Growth rate from 1990 to 2000 (%)
Share of total 2000 (%)
0 83 0.83
12
2009
NÉPESSÉG Share of total 2009 (%)
Growth rate from 2000 to 2009 (%)
7000000000 6000000000
E Europe
~ 722 000
14
000
EU
~ 365 000 ~ 3 170 000
China
~ 1 140 000
7
~ 849 000 ~ 250 000
Total World
~ 5 263 000
~ 3 680 000
22
~ 1 275 000
25 2.5 decrease
6
~ 490 000 000
8
2
4000000000
16.09
61
~ 3 800 000 000
58
3,3
3000000000
11.84
21
~ 1 320 000 000
20
3.5
2000000000
17.79
16
~ 1 130 000 000
17
13
1000000000
13.2
5
~ 300 000 000
5
6
0
14
100
6 500 000 000
100
8
000 16
~ 1,000,000,
5
~ 283 000
100
~ 6,000,000,
000
000
5000000000
3.01
000
000
000
~ 376 000
60
000
India
11
000
000
USA
710 000 000 710,000,000
000
000
Asia
~ 728 000
000
1990 2000 2006
World Europe
EU
Asia
China
India
USA
000
1
2012.02.07.
A NÉPESSÉG MEGOSZLÁSA
A NÉPESSÉG NÖVEKEDÉSE Year
Total world population (mid-year figures)
Ten-year growth rate (%)
1950
~ 2,600,000,000
19.0%
1960
~ 3,000,000,000
22.0
1970
~ 3,700,000,000
21
1980
~ 4,500,000,000
18
1990
~ 5,300,600,000
15
2000
~ 6,100,000,000
13
20101
~ 6,850,000,000
11
20201
~ 7,600,000,000
9
20301
~ 8,250,000,000
7
20401
~ 8,850,000,000
6
20501
~ 9,350,000,000
—
3. NYERSANYAG / OLAJ
NÉPESSÉG ELŐREJELZÉS
A TOP 10 LEGNAGYOBB OLAJKITERMELŐ ORSZÁG 1
Saudi Arabia
2
US
3
Russia
4
Iran
5
Mexico
6
Venezuela
7
China
8
Norway
9
UK
10
Iraq
NYERSANYAG / OLAJ Proved reserves Rank
Country
(billion barrels)
1
Saudi Arabia
264.3
2
Canada
178.8
3
Iran
132.5
4
Iraq
115
5
Kuwait u at
101.5 0 5
6
United Arab Emirates
97.8
7
Venezuela
79.7
8
Russia Libya
39.1
Nigeria
35.9
11
United States
21.4
12
China
18.3
13
Qatar
15.2
14
Mexico
15
Algeria
Rest of world World total
A TOP 10 LEGNAGYOBB OLAJTARTALÉKKAL RENDELKEZŐ NAGYHATALOM
60
9 10
Top 20 countries
A TOP 15 LEGNAGYOBB OLAJ-NAGYHATALOM (tartalékok)
12.9 11.4 1224.5 (95%) 68.10 (5%) 1292.6
2
2012.02.07.
NYERSANYAG / ARANY A TOP 10 LEGNAGYOBB ARANYKITERMELŐ ORSZÁG (2006)
NYERSANYAG / ARANY 1
USA
8133.5
2
Germany
3427.8
3
International Monetary Fund
3217.3
France
2892.6
4 5
Italy
2451.8
6
Switzerland
1290.1
7
Japan
765.2
8
Netherlands
722.4
9
European Central Bank
719.9
10
People's Republic of China
600
11
Republic of China (Taiwan)
423.3
12
Portugal
407.5
13
Russia
386.6
14
India
357.7
15
Venezuela
357
4. GAZDASÁGI KIBOCSÁTÁS USD (GDP ÖSSZES) World
GDP based on PPP (Bs) (B )
1990
2000
2009
~ 27,000.00
~ 45,000.00
~ 66,230.00
Europe
A TOP 15 LEGNAGYOBB ARANYTARTALÉKKAL RENDELKEZŐ ORSZÁG
A VILÁG ÖSSZESHEZ MÉRT ARÁNY GDP (PPP) 1990
2000
~ 4.0%
~ 3.4%
~14,000.00
15,270.00
European Union
~ 7,045.00
~ 10,600.00
~ 13,890.00
Central and Eastern Europe
~ 1,070.00
~ 1,500.00
~ 2,270.00
Europe
Asia
~9,069,00
~16,965,00
~ 23,200,00
Asia
26,2%
32,3%
Developing Asia
~ 3,900.00
~ 9,750.00
~ 17,900.00
India
~1,121,00
~2,400,00
4,160.00
Developing Asia
China
~1,500,00
~4,845,00
10,170,00
Developing Asia & ASEAN-4
Central and Eastern Europe
2009
~ 3.4% ~ 22,2 %
EU
~ 4,700.00
~ 11,300.00
~ 20,200.00
Middle East
~ 675.000
~ 1,200.00
~ 1,900.00
USA
~ 5,700.00
~ 9,640.00
~ 13,000.00
A FEJLŐDŐK ARÁNYA
35.0%
~ 14.5%
~ 22.0%
27,0%
China
~5,7%
~11,0%
~13,5%
India
~4,3%
~5,4%
~6,0%
Middle East
~ 2.5%
~ 3.0%
~ 2.9%
USA
~ 21.2%
~ 21.5%
~ 20.0%
TOP 20 GDP TERMELŐ ORSZÁG
3
2012.02.07.
GDP/fő, (piaci ár) 2010
GDP/fő 2010 Selected Emerging market economies (EME) Country GDP/cap USD (cur p) ………?…… 24,567.5 Czech Rep. 18, 288 Korea 20,591 Slovakia 16,104 Estonia 14,836 Taiwan 18,458 Croatia 13,720 Hungary 12,879 Latvia 10,695 Lithuania 11,044 Poland 12,300 Chile 11,828 Turkey 10,399 Russia 10,437 Brazil 10,816 Mexico 9,566 China 4,382 Ukraine 3,000 India 1,265
Mi a fejlődés motorja? • Magas jövedelemszint: innováció • Közepes jövedelemszint: beruházás, hatékonyság növekedés • Alacsony jövedelemszint: termelési tényezőkön alapuló növekedés
Jelentés a versenyképességről globális szinten (Global Competitiveness Report) A jelentés kiadója: World Economic Forum – A versenyképesség növekedésének indexe (Growth of Competitiveness Index = GCI) • Jeffrey Sachs, John McArthur Columbia Egyetem, The Earth Institute
– Versenyképesség az üzleti életben index (Business Competitiveness Index = BCI)
Versenyképesség Definíció Potenciál a fenntartható, a jelenlegi gazdasági teljesítményt meghaladó gazdasági fejlődésre
A makro versenyképességet vizsgáló indexek • GCI I: Gross Competitiveness Index (3 fő pillér) • GCI II: Global Competitiveness Index (12 fő pillér) • CCI: Current Competitiveness Index = GDP/fő • BCI: Business Competitiveness Index
• Michael Porter, Harvard Egyetem
4
2012.02.07.
A versenyképesség növekedési indexének struktúrája (GCI I)
Macrogazdasági g g Környezet index
•Makrogazdaság stabilitása •Country credit ratings •Kormány hatékonyság
A Köz Intézmények y minőségi indexe
•Törvényi szabályozás •A korrupció mértéke
Country Credit Ratings 2008-2009 (by Institutional Investor)
Technológiai g Index
•Innováció •Információs és Kommunikációs Technológia
Country Credit Ratings 2008-2009 (by Institutional Investor)
Country Credit Ratings 2008-2009 (by Institutional Investor)
Diversion of public funds
Diversion of public funds
In your country, how common is diversion of public funds to companies, individuals, or groups due to corruption? (1 = very common; 7 = never occurs) | 2009–2010 weighted average
In your country, how common is diversion of public funds to companies, individuals, or groups due to corruption? (1 = very common; 7 = never occurs) | 2009–2010 weighted average
In selected EMEs: 41. Poland 50 Lithuania 50. 56. Macedonia 57. Romania 60. Hungary 63. China 67. Czech Rep. 72. Slovak Rep.
80. Croatia 87. Serbia 94. Bulgaria 111. Russian Fed. 127. Ukraine
5
2012.02.07.
Transparency of government policymaking
Public trust of politicians How would you rate the level of public trust in the ethical standards of politicians in your country? (1 = very low; 7 = very high) | 2009– 2010 weighted average
41 United States 94 Hungary
Corruption Index 2009
Public trust of politicians How would you rate the level of public trust in the ethical standards of politicians in your country? (1 = very low; 7 = very high) | 2009– 2010 weighted average Hungary ranks: 128
Corruption Index 2009
The full ranking of countries shows a more nuanced picture. The first ten countries appear to be all small or medium sized economies. Six are located in Northern and Central Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Iceland, the Netherlands), one in North America (Canada), one in Asia (Singapore) and two in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). The larger economies are lower down in the list : Germany ranks 14th, the United Kingdom 16th, Japan and the USA 18th, France 23rd and Italy 55th of 180 countries.
Source: Transparency International
6
2012.02.07.
Of the ten countries at the lower end of the list six are in Africa (Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Guinea, Sudan and Somalia), one in the Americas (Haiti) and three in Asia (Afghanistan, Iraq and Myanmar).
Source: Transparency International
Public trust in politicians
Folyt.
g y Hungary rank: 60, score: 2,4
Public trust in the financial honesty of politicians is 1 = very low, 7 = very high
Technological readiness and Innovation 2009-2010
Közintézmények Minőségének Indexe Kulcs sub-indexek: • Törvény szabályozás • Korrupció
TOP 15 Ország Denmark New Zealand Iceland Finland Germany Norway Singapore Netherlands
Rang 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forrás: World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org
Ország
Rang
Switzerland Sweden Austria UK Australia Hong Kond SAR Japan Hungary
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 41
Technological readiness
Innovation
Country
Rank
Country
Sweden
1
USA
1
Netherlands
2
Switzerland
2 3
Switzerland
Rank
3
Finland
Denmark
4
Japan
4
Luxemburg
5
Sweden
5
Singapore
6
Taiwan, China
6
Norway
7
Germany
7
UK
8
Singapore
8
Hong Kong SAR
9
Israel
9
Finland
10
Denmark
10
Canada
11
Korea, Rep.
11
Germany
12
Canada
12
USA
13
Netherlands
13
Iceland
14
Belgium
14
Korea, Rep
15
UK
15
7
2012.02.07.
Innovation 2009-2010 EMEs
Folyt. Selected EMEs Country
Singapore Czech Rep. China Slovenia Estonia Hungary Russia Poland
Rank
Country
8 25 26 29 37 45 51 52
Rank
Lithuania Croatia Ukraine Romania Serbia Lathvia Bulgaria Macedonia
58 61 62 70 80 88 91 92
Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007, World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org
Information & communication technology spending 2005 (wikipedia)
Technological readiness 2009-2010 EMEs Selected EMEs Country
Estonia Czech Rep Slovenia Singapore Lithuania Hungary Croatia Latvia
Rank
Country
16 30 32 33 36 40 43 47
Rank
Poland Macedonia Bulgaria Romania Russia Serbia China Ukraine
48 52 56 58 74 78 79 80
Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007, World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org
Ország
Internet használók*
Mobil telefonok**
PC***
Iceland
7700
99
47
Sweden
7546
108
76
Malta
7525
76
31
Korea, Rep.
6567
76
54
82
68
Internet használat, mobiltelefon és PC *Internet users per 10 000 inhab.
Italy
4977
108
31
Slovenia
4795
100
35
Austria
4752
97
57
Switzerland
82
4720
84
Israel
4663
105
Germany
4266
86
48
Slovak Rep
4226
79
29
France
4136
73
48
Belgium
4020
87
34
73
Jamaica
3987
82
6
Norway
3936
103
57
Malaysia
3862
57
19
Cyprus
30
Australia
6528
3692
79
US
6299
62
76
Latvia
3543
67
Finland
6299
95
48
p Spain
3317
89
25
UK
6287
102
60
United Arab Emirates
3185
84
12
Canada
6236
46
69
Ireland
2963
93
49
Netherlands
6162
91
68
Croatia
2950
63
19
Luxemburg
5900
138
62
Luithuania
2809
99
Portugal
2802
98
13
Chile
2790
62
13
Hungary
2674
86
14
Costa Rica
2354
21
21
Kuwait
2350
78
17
Poland
2334
59
19
Singapore
5612
89
62
Barbados
5535
73
12
Taiwan, China
5381
100
52
New Zealand
5263
77
49
Estonia
5122
96
47
**Cellular telephone subscribers per 100 inhab ***PC's per 100 inhab
Folyt.
21
15
Denmark
5036
95
65
Quatar
2217
65
Hong Kong SAR
5031
118
60
Bahrain
2130
90
16
Japan
5020
71
54
Uruguay
2098
18
13
Czech Rep
4996
105
21
Romania
2076
47
11
Guayana
1890
13
3
17
8
2012.02.07.
Global Competitiveness Index (GCI II)
Azokra az emberi és szociális szempontokra Fókuszál, amelyek a gazdasági teljesítményre vannak hatással.
Competitiveness pillars Basic requirements • Institutions • Infrastructure • Macroeconomic availability • Health and primary education
Key for factor-driven economies
Efficiency enhancers • Higher education and training • Goods market efficiency • Labor market efficiency • Financial market sophistication • Technological readiness • Market size
Key for efficiency-driven economies
Innovation and sophistication factors Business sophistication Innovation
Globális Versenyképesség Index (Global Competitiveness Index)
Key for innovation-driven economies
12 pillér: Intézmények, Infrasturktúra, Makrogazdaság, Egészség és elsődleges oktatás, felsőoktatás és továbbképzés, Piac hatékonyság, Technológiai felkészültség, Üzleti rátermettség, Innováció
GCI II. rangsor Rank
GCI II. összetevői F • Basic requirements 60% • Efficiency factors 35% • Innovation factors 5%
E 40% 50% 10%
I 20% 50% 30%
GCI II. 2006 – 2007- 2008 – 2009-2010 EMEs 2006 27. Estonia 33. Czech Rep. 34 China 34. 39. Slovenia 41. Slovakia 40. Lithuania 47. Hungary 48. India 51. Poland 52. Mexico 53. Turkey 58. Russia 72. Brazil 73. Ukraine 74. Romania
2007 30. China 32. Estonia 33 Czech Rep 33. 39. Cyprus 41. Slovenia 42. Portugal 45. Slovakia 48. Italy 49. India 52. Poland 59. Mexico 61. Hungary 63. Brazil 71. Ukraine 67. Romania
2008 30. China 32. Estonia 33 Czech Rep 33.Czech 40. Cyprus 42. Slovenia 43. Portugal 46. Slovakia 49. Italy 50. India 53. Poland 60. Mexico 62. Hungary 64. Brazil 72. Ukraine 68. Romania
2009
29. China 31. Czech Rep 35. Estonia 37. Slovenia 46. Poland 47. Slovakia 49. India 53. Lithuania 56. Brazil 58. Hungary 60. Mexico 61. Turkey 63. Russia 64. Romania 82. Ukraine
2007
2008
2009
2010
1
United States
United States
Switzerland
Switzerland
2
Switzerland
Switzerland
United States
Sweden
3
Denmark
Denmark
Singapore
Singapore
4
Sweden
Sweden
Sweden
United States
5
Germany
Singapore
Denmark
Germany
6
Finland
Finland
Finland
Japan
7
Singapore
Germany
Germany
Finland
8
Japan
Netherlands
Japan
Netherlands
9
United Kingdom
Japan
Canada
Denmark
10
Netherlands
Canada
Netherlands
Canada
11
Korea, Rep.
Hong Kong SAR
Hong Kong SAR
Hong Kong SAR
12
Hong Kong SAR
United Kingdom
Taiwan, China
United Kingdom
13
Canada
Korea, Rep.
United Kingdom
Norway
14
Taiwan, China
Austria
Norway
France
15
Austria
Norway
Australia
Australia
16
Norway
France
France
Quatar
17
Israel
Taiwan, China
Austria
Austria
18
France
Australia
Belgium
Belgium
19
Australia
Belgium
Korea, Rep.
Luxemburg
20
Belgium
Iceland
New Zealand
New Zealand
The Global Competitiveness Index 2011–2012 rankings and 2010–2011 comparisons
2010 27. China 33. Estonia 36 Checz Rep 36. 39. Poland 45. Slovenia 47. Lithuania 51. India 52. Hungary 58. Brazil 60. Slovakia 61.Turkey 63. Russia 66. Mexico 67. Romanai 89. Ukraine
9
2012.02.07.
The Global Competitiveness Index
The Global Competitiveness Index
2011–2012 rankings and 2010–2011 comparisons Cont’d
2011–2012 rankings and 2010–2011 comparisons Cont’d
Basic Requirements 1. 2. 3. 3 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Denmark Finland Singapore Switzerland Hong Kong Sweden Netherlands Norway Germany Austria
Estonia Slovenia Czech Slovakia
29 37 42 50
Hungary
59
1.pillér: Intézmények 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Finland Denmark Singapore Switzerland Iceland
79. Hungary
2.pillér: Infrastruktúra
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Germany France Singapore Switzerland Hong Kong
51. Hungary
3.pillér: Makrogazdaság 1. 2 2. 3. 4.
Kuvait Q t Qatar UAE Singapore
69. Hungary
10
