May 18, 2017
Mimi Halimin
+62-21-515-1140
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Cement: Surprising volume growth in April
Market Index Last Trade JCI MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM HANG SENG KOSPI FTSE DJIA NASDAQ Valuation 2017F JCI
Chg (%)
MoM
5,615.5 25.8 1,008.6 25,293.6 2,293.1 7,503.5 20,606.9 6,011.2
-0.6 -2.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -1.8 -2.6
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
16.0
YoY
0.7 2.1 6.0 5.9 6.7 5.2 2.2 5.5
19.3 20.5 27.8 27.8 17.2 22.0 19.7 30.2
ROE (%)
2.4
18.3
Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) BI 7-Day RR
4.75 3yr 6.76 10yr 7.04 *since introduced in Aug 2016
MoM
0 -6 -1
YoY
0 12 -2
-50* -54 -66
FX Last Trade USD/IDR
Chg (%)
13,324.00 1,118.20 110.83 6.88
USD/KRW USD/JPY USD/CNY
MoM
0.2 0.2 -2.0 -0.1
YoY
0.1 -2.1 2.2 0.1
0.0 -5.5 0.6 5.6
Konsumsi semen domestik pada bulan April mencapai 5.1mn ton (+11.0% YoY). Volume ekspor bulan April mencapai 224,277 ton (+124.7% YoY; +34.7% MoM). Volume penjualan bag semen tercatat menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang kuat di bulan April (+11.5% YoY), dibandingkan dengan semen curah (+9.5% YoY). Menurut pandangan kami, pertumbuhan kuat bag semen dapat menjadi indikator bahwa sektor properti mulai meningkat. Menurut data Bank Indonesia (BI), kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR) dan kredit pemilikan apartemen (KPA) menunjukkan perbaikan meski sedikit. Meskipun demikian, secara kumulatif pada 4M17, semen curah masih menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi (+6.3% YoY) vs. bag semen (+2.0% YoY). Secara keseluruhan, konsumsi semen 4M17 tumbuh 3.0% YoY menjadi 19.8mn ton, masih tidak terlalu tinggi namun cukup menggembirakan. Dalam laporan sektor semen kami sebelumnya mengenai update bulan Maret yang berjudul "Java’s growth encouraging", kami menyoroti pertumbuhan demand yang positif di Jawa, yang ternyata berlanjut pada bulan April dengan kenaikan dua digit (+14.7% YoY), lebih tinggi dari pertumbuhan industri (+11.0% YoY). Sebagai kontributor konsumsi semen terbesar, pertumbuhan konsumsi semen di Pulau Jawa di bulan April disokong oleh pertumbuhan yang tinggi di Yogyakarta (+46.0% YoY), Jawa Timur (+24.9% YoY), dan Jawa Tengah (+23.0% YoY). Menurut pandangan kami, pertumbuhan konsumsi semen di bulan April merupakan sentimen positif bagi sektor semen. Namun kami masih ragu apakah pertumbuhan tinggi di April bisa berlanjut di bulan Mei dan Juni. Konsumsi semen biasanya sangat rendah saat Lebaran karena hari kerja yang lebih sedikit. Kami juga masih kuatir akan persaingan ketat industri yang menyeret turun harga jual rata-rata (ASP) produsen semen, yang kami percaya masih terjadi. Saat ini, kami masih mempertahankan Underweight call kami di sektor semen.
Commodities Last Trade WTI
Chg (%)
49.1 1,261.4 73.8 2,886.0 166.1 9,215.0 5,610.0 20,205.0
Gold Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel Copper Tin
0.8 1.9 -0.4 -2.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.9
MoM
YoY
-7.2 -2.2 -12.3 8.5 -3.2 -1.0 0.7 4.6
-3.5 0.2 45.1 8.7 18.9 6.7 21.6 21.5
Monthly total domestic cement consumption
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt)
JCI
(pt)
MSCI EM
1,100
5,500
950 4,500 3,500 05/13
800
05/14
05/15
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
(pt)
5,500
JCI
05/16
Source: Company data, ASI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
650 05/17
MSCI EM
(pt) 1,100
May 18, 2017 Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
2 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
May 18, 2017 Embun Pagi
Local flashes TBIG: Tower Bersama siapkan dana Rp2,5 triliun untuk tambah 2.500 menara baru. PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) berencana menambah 2.500 menara baru. Hal itu disampaikan Direktur Tower Bersama Infrastructure, Helmy Yasman, di Jakarta, Rabu. Helmy menuturkan, perusahaan akan terus berusaha untuk memperkuat bisnisnya di bidang usaha menara telekomunikasi. Oleh karena itu, Perseroan optimis pada tahun ini bisa menambah sebanyak 2.500 menara baru. Dana tersebut akan berasal dari kas internal dan juga pinjaman sindikasi. (Iqplus) AGRO: Rights issue, BRI Agro bidik dana hingga Rp 1,15 triliun. PT Bank BRI Agro Tbk (BRI Agro) berencana melakukan rights issuepada 2017 ini. Dari rights issue ini bank berkode AGRO ini menargetkan perolehan dana sebesar Rp 999,9 miliar sampai Rp 1,15 triliun. Dalam keterbukaan informasi ke bursa efek Indonesia (BEI), harga pelaksanaanrights issue ini adalah Rp 130 sampai Rp 150 per saham. Dana yang diperoleh dari rights issue ini akan digunakan untuk memperkuat struktur permodalan dan mendukung pertumbuhan kredit. (Kontan) WICO: Wicaksana Overseas perluas wilayah distribusi. Perusahaan distribusi, PT Wicaksana Overseas International Tbk(WICO) membidik bisa meluaskan cakupan distribusi produk. Tahun ini, emiten ini tengah menjajaki 3 calon prinsipal baru. Sayangnya, manajemen belum bisa menjabarkan dari perusahaan mana saja prinsipal itu. Sektornya berasal dari industri makanan dan minuman. “Kami harapkan kuartal 4 transaksinya sudah berjalan," ujar Eddy Suwandi Direktur Utama WICO. Langkah mencari hubungan bisnis yang baru tersebut, menjadi strategi WICO untuk meningkatan pendapatan. (Kontan) MAYA: Bank Mayapada bagi dividen Rp 40 per saham. Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) tahun buku 2016 PT Bank Mayapada Internasional Tbk menyepakati pembagian dividen sebesar 24% dari laba bersih 2016 atau sebesar Rp 196,77 miliar. Nilai dividen setara Rp 40 per saham. Selain itu, RUPST juga menetapkan pencadangan dari laba bersih sampai 20% dari total modal disetor. Perseroan mencadangkan 2,44% dari laba bersih tahun 2016, yakni Rp 20 miliar. (Kontan) GDYR: Goodyear bakal genjot produksi. PT Goodyear Indonesia Tbk. mengungkapkan akan meningkatkan utilitas pabrik untuk memperluas pasar domestik. Presiden Direktur GDYR Allan Loi mengungkapkan sejauh ini perkembangan pasar otomtif dalam negeri cukup positif buat para pemain industri ban. Apalagi, pada tahun lalu, perbaikan indikator makro ekonomi global maupun nasional, kian menguatkan permintaan konsumsi otomotif. (Bisnis Indonesia) ADMF: Adira Finance tebar dividen Rp 505 miliar. Emiten multifinance PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance kembali tebar dividen di tahun ini. Total deviden yang dibagibagikan kepada pemegang saham mencapai Rp 505 miliar alias Rp 505 per lembar saham. Direktur Adira Finance, I Dewa Made Susila mengatakan, pembagian dividen tahun ini setara dengan 50% dari laba bersih Adira di tahun kemarin. Rasio tersebut sama dengan dividen yang ditebar Adira di tahun lalu. (Kontan) KINO: Kino Indonesia bagi dividen Rp35,7 miliar. PT Kino Indonesia Tbk. membagikan dividen senilai Rp35,7 miliar atau setara 20% dari total laba bersih 2016. Direktur Keuangan Kino Indonesia Peter Chayson mengungkapkan laba pada 2016 mencapai Rp181 miliar. Dia mengungkapkan laba perseroan menurun karena pelemahan daya beli pada tahun lalu. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
3
May 18, 2017 Embun Pagi
Chart 1. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt)
Chart 2. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
JCI (L)
(IDR)
USD/IDR (R)
(%, %p)
Absolute
20
5,800 13,700 5,600
Relative 18.6
16 12
5,400
13,500
8 4 0.2
0.1
5,200
0 13,300
5,000
-0.6
-4
-1.4 -2.3 -5.2
-8 4,800
13,100 2/15
3/15
4/12
-8.4
-12
5/10
1D
1W
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 3. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)
Chart 4. Energy price
(USDmn) 1,000
1 Day
(D-3M=100) 115
5 Days 800
800
CPO
1M
WTI
1Y
Coal
110 105
600
100 95
400 225 200 0
163
107 31
0
37
109 10
45
85 80
-15 -118
-200
Korea
75 Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines
India
Note: The latest figure for India are May 16th, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Copper
2/15
3/15
4/12
5/10
Gold
Platinum
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 5. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100)
90
Chart 6. Precious metal price Nickel
Tin
(D-3M=100)
105
110
100
105
Silver
100
95
95 90 90 85
85 80
80 2/15
3/15
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
4/12
5/10
2/15
3/15
4/12
5/10
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
4 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
May 18, 2017 Embun Pagi
Table. Key valuation metrics Price
Market Cap
(IDR)
(IDRbn)
1D
1W
1M
1Y
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
5,615
6,172,752
-0.6
-1.4
0.7
18.7
16.0
14.0
2.5
2.2
18.3
21.8
BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN
16,950 12,000 14,100 6,500 2,430
417,902 280,000 347,835 121,216 25,734
-2.6 0.2 0.5 -0.8 3.8
-5.8 0.0 0.7 -2.3 -0.8
0.1 3.2 13.5 4.0 7.0
30.4 37.1 45.4 50.8 42.5
18.5 19.6 10.9 9.1 13.3
18.3 14.0 12.4 9.1 12.3
3.4 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.0
3.2 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.2
20.4 10.3 20.2 13.9 7.6
18.9 12.5 18.3 14.5 10.2
HMSP GGRM ICBP INDF KLBF UNVR
3,840 70,100 8,700 8,475 1,500 47,750
446,661 134,879 101,459 74,414 70,313 364,333
-0.5 -0.6 1.5 1.2 -0.7 -0.1
0.8 -1.5 0.9 0.0 -3.5 3.4
-2.3 8.5 6.7 6.3 -2.6 5.4
-2.0 -4.0 9.4 20.6 15.4 10.9
34.8 18.4 27.8 18.3 30.9 46.3
32.9 17.9 26.1 16.6 27.6 50.4
13.0 3.1 5.7 2.4 6.0 62.9
12.5 3.1 5.1 2.3 5.3 65.8
38.6 17.3 21.8 14.7 20.6 134.1
38.5 17.9 21.1 14.5 19.2 137.8
AALI LSIP SSMS
14,425 1,490 1,735
27,764 10,166 16,526
-1.5 -2.0 -0.6
-0.7 3.8 2.4
-1.0 6.8 1.2
2.1 -4.8 -2.8
14.8 20.0 22.5
14.3 13.0 22.5
1.9 1.6 3.9
1.6 1.2 4.1
14.1 7.9 18.3
11.2 9.8 18.4
EXCL JSMR PGAS TBIG TLKM SOCI GIAA
3,080 4,800 2,290 5,575 4,340 316 344
32,919 34,838 55,513 25,263 437,472 2,231 8,905
2.3 0.0 -3.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 0.6
-1.3 0.4 -5.4 -1.8 0.0 -8.7 -1.7
4.8 4.1 -7.7 -7.1 8.7 -14.1 -10.4
-6.9 -9.2 -0.9 -17.1 17.2 -21.4 -25.2
60.8 15.6 15.3 17.4 20.3 8.2 31.7
79.2 18.0 10.7 20.2 18.9 4.7 21.7
1.2 2.3 1.5 14.3 4.7 0.9 2.6
1.5 2.3 1.3 8.4 4.5 N/A 2.7
2.1 15.7 9.8 83.6 24.3 15.9 8.6
1.5 13.1 12.5 51.1 24.0 10.1 13.2
SMGR CPIN INTP JPFA
9,100 3,000 18,325 1,260
53,977 49,194 67,459 14,377
-1.1 0.0 -0.8 6.8
4.0 -2.3 9.7 3.7
3.4 -5.7 10.1 -18.7
0.6 -1.0 10.7 38.5
12.0 22.6 14.6 7.7
14.5 16.0 19.9 8.0
1.9 3.6 2.2 1.9
1.8 3.0 2.4 1.4
16.3 16.5 15.5 28.6
12.4 19.7 12.2 19.5
ITMG ADRO ANTM INCO PTBA
14,850 1,410 705 1,910 10,575
16,779 45,100 16,942 18,978 24,366
-1.0 -3.8 0.7 -4.0 -2.5
-14.8 -9.0 11.9 -1.0 -7.0
-24.2 -23.8 -2.1 -14.3 -17.5
80.0 102.9 1.4 27.3 60.8
10.4 12.0 298.3 N/A 13.1
6.2 8.1 61.5 35.9 7.8
1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.5
1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.9
15.0 11.1 0.4 0.1 20.5
19.9 11.7 2.6 1.7 25.4
UNTR AKRA BMTR LPPF MNCN MPPA SCMA SILO
23,100 6,275 640 14,800 1,915 815 2,870 12,000
86,166 25,101 9,087 43,185 27,339 4,383 41,964 15,607
-3.0 0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -1.4
-9.4 -4.6 -0.8 -1.8 -5.2 -4.7 0.0 -11.4
-15.2 -3.8 25.5 10.9 10.1 -16.0 2.1 -11.6
80.5 6.4 -45.3 -21.3 -16.7 -38.3 -13.6 38.2
15.8 23.5 41.8 21.9 17.7 211.4 27.2 150.3
13.0 20.4 N/A 19.5 15.3 26.6 23.3 109.0
1.9 3.5 0.9 23.8 2.7 3.3 11.9 4.5
1.9 3.2 N/A 14.4 2.5 1.8 10.3 4.9
12.7 15.7 2.0 136.4 15.4 1.6 45.7 3.5
15.4 16.0 N/A 86.2 16.8 4.7 46.6 4.6
BSDE ADHI ASRI CTRA LPKR PTPP PWON SMRA WIKA WSKT
1,700 2,210 320 1,125 725 2,950 570 1,250 2,250 2,300
32,719 7,869 6,288 20,880 16,731 18,290 27,451 18,033 20,182 31,220
-5.8 0.9 -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 3.9 -5.0 -4.2 0.9 0.9
-6.8 0.5 -6.4 -4.3 -11.6 1.7 -13.6 -10.7 0.4 1.3
-3.7 -2.2 -8.6 -9.6 -2.0 -12.2 -0.9 -6.4 -3.8 -1.3
-1.2 -13.7 -11.6 -11.2 -22.5 -12.6 11.8 -9.7 4.7 -10.9
18.8 23.6 13.6 19.9 18.6 23.1 16.3 61.3 14.4 17.3
13.8 13.4 7.2 16.2 15.9 12.9 13.4 43.0 15.9 13.0
1.6 1.4 1.0 2.2 0.9 2.4 3.1 3.1 1.8 3.1
1.4 1.3 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.6 1.5 2.0
9.1 5.9 7.5 9.8 5.0 14.4 21.0 5.1 12.9 16.6
10.5 9.8 12.1 11.0 5.3 14.3 19.9 6.4 10.3 16.7
ASII
8,350
338,038
-2.9
-4.0
-0.3
32.0
22.1
17.1
3.0
2.7
14.2
16.5
Company Name
Ticker
Jakarta Composite Index FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia Bank Mandiri Persero Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Bank Tabungan Negara Persero
JCI
CONSUMER HM Sampoerna Gudang Garam Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur Kalbe Farma Unilever Indonesia AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari PP London Sumatera Indonesia Sawit Sumbermas Sarana INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata Jasa Marga Perusahaan Gas Negara Tower Bersama Infrastructure Telekomunikasi Indonesia Soechi Lines Garuda Indonesia BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Japfa Comfeed Indonesia MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah Adaro Energy Aneka Tambang Vale Indonesia Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam TRADE United Tractors AKR Corporindo Global Mediacom Matahari Department Store Media Nusantara Citra Matahari Putra Prima Surya Citra Media Siloam International Hospital PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai Adhi Karya Alam Sutera Realty Ciputra Development Lippo Karawaci Pembangunan Perumahan Pakuwon Jati Summarecon Agung Wijaya Karya Waskita Karya MISCELLANEOUS Astra International
Price Performance (%)
P/E(X)*
P/B(X)*
ROE(%)*
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
5
May 18, 2017 Embun Pagi
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name
Index
Agricultural Mining Basic-Industry Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Property & Construction Infrastructure Finance Trade Composite
Chg (%)
1,800.0 1,346.1 613.9 1,420.9 2,494.5 479.3 1,130.6 894.0 894.4 5,615.5
Ticker -0.9 -1.4 0.0 -2.3 0.0 -1.2 0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6
Price
INAF IJ JPFA IJ PTPP IJ BBTN IJ NIKL IJ RMBA IJ SMSM IJ TOWR IJ TELE IJ SMBR IJ
Market Cap (IDRbn) 3390 1260 2950 2430 5475 468 1180 3750 1200 3280
Chg (%)
10,507 14,377 18,290 25,734 13,815 17,036 6,795 38,261 8,763 32,286
6.94 6.78 3.87 3.85 3.8 3.54 3.51 3.02 3.0 2.50
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers
Top 5 lagging movers
Name BBRI ICBP TPIA TOWR BBTN
Chg (%) IJ IJ IJ
Close 0.5 1.5 1.3 3.0 3.9
IJ IJ
Name 14,100 8,700 27,800 3,750 2,430
Chg (%)
BBCA IJ ASII IJ UNTR IJ HMSP IJ BSDE IJ
Close -2.6 -2.9 -3.0 -0.5 -5.8
16,950 8,350 23,100 3,840 1,700
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar Time 6:50am 6:50am 8:00am 8:30am 8:30am 18th-19th 3:30pm Tentative Tentative 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 9:00pm 9:30pm
Currency JPY JPY AUD AUD AUD CNY GBP EUR EUR CAD USD USD USD USD
Detail Prelim GDP q/q Prelim GDP Price Index y/y MI Inflation Expectations Employment Change Unemployment Rate Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction French 10-y Bond Auction Foreign Securities Purchases Unemployment Claims Philly Fed Manufacturing Index CB Leading Index m/m Natural Gas Storage
Forecast 0.4% -0.7%
1.2%
Previous 0.3% -0.1% 4.1% 60.9K 5.9% 1.0% -1.8%
240K 19.9 0.4% 61B
38.84B 236K 22.0 0.4% 45B
4.5K 5.9%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 2016.
6 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
