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Latest IPCC findings on Ocean and Carbon Cycle Dr. Edvin Aldrian Director of the Center for Climate Change and Air Quality Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency BMKG IPCC Working Group 1 AR 5 Lead Author Dozen of Marine Meteorology University of Indonesia
BMKG
International Workshop on Blue Carbon “From Indonesia to the Blue Planet” 10-11 December 2013, Jakarta KKP
Presentation Outline - Latest IPCC AR5 WG1 findings - IPCC 2013 Supplement on Wetland - Status of greenhouse gasses concentration in Indonesia - BMKG GHG monitoring network - Climate Change, Oceanography and renewable energy
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IPCC WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis • The IPCC has released its WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis on 27 Sept 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden • The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) can be downloaded from the IPCC website http://www.ipcc.ch and www.climatechange2013.org • This lecture highlights key findings of the report [SPM, TS, Underlying chapters]
Cover Page: Folgefonna glacier on the high plateaus of Sørfjorden, Norway (60°14’ N, 6°44’ E).
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • IPCC plenary comprises of all countries in the world • IPCC Bureau comprises of 30 elected members with variable numbers for each of the WMO region; IPCC elects its bureau members once in a 6-7 years cycle • 3 working groups & a Task Force on NGGI • Authors, Contributors, Reviewers, Review Editors
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Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Why IPCC?
Prior to the establishment of IPCC, growing number of literatures indicate the Earth’s climate system is warming due to increasing GHG concentration in atmosphere
Independent, objective, fair and transparent assessment of the state of global climate system is required
For this reason, United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) 42 proposed the establishment of IPCC and in 1988 IPCC was established under WMO and UNEP
The IPCC provides such assessment and this becomes the source of information particularly to policy makers and UNFCCC on 1. Causes of climate change, 2. Potential impacts on built and natural systems and socio-economic, 3. Possible response options.
IPCC had published 5 assessment reports and various other reports. The latest is the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which was released on Sept 27, 2013, in Stockholm, Sweden.
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IPCC Reports
FAR 1990
SAR 1995
TAR 2001
AR4 2007
AR5 2013
IPCC had produced 5 Assessment Reports plus several other special reports including the recently released SREX & SRREN.
SRREN (2011)
SREX (2012)
How IPCC produces these reports?
Independent research, Knowledge generation, publication of literatures by Scientific community
IPCC Assessment Process
IPCC Assessment Report
IPCC doesn’t involve at this stage
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IPCC Assessment Process
IPCC assessment is based on available peer-reviewed publications
Key SPM Messages
19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages
Summary for Policymakers ~14,000 Words 14 Chapters Atlas of Regional Projections 54,677 Review Comments by 1089 Experts 2010:
2009:
259 Authors Selected
WGI Outline Approved 10
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The Relative Comprehensiveness of IPCC WG1 AR5
IPCC Assessment - Assessment and not journal review - Decision maker references - Policy descriptive - Policy relevance - Not policy prescriptive - Assessment using certainty languanges
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 1.12
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IPCC 2013. Fig 1.3
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Key Statement / Headline of IPCC WG1 AR5 SPM Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased
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Carbon Cycle Budget
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 6.1
Ocean atmosphere changes in warming climate
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, FAQ 2.1 Fig 1
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In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence)
Over SEA increase trend ~ 1.0oC per century
(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1b)
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1a)
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Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
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IPCC 2013; Fig 5.7a)
Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives
(IPCC 2013; Fig 5.8a)
Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives & Climate Simulation
Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi- decadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th century. These regional warm periods did not occur as coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th century (high confidence)
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Wetter region gets more wetter and drier gets more drier since the second half of the 20th century Extreme weather & climate events became more frequent
(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.2)
Temperature Ocean heat content Sea Level Snow Cover Glacier Arctic Sea-ice extent
(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.1)
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(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.4a)
40% increase since pre-industrial period Ocean observed 30% of these emitted CO2
Ocean became more acidic
(IPCC 2013. Fig SPM.4b)
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
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Ocean will be more acidic by the end of the 21st century
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
(IPCC 2013. Fig TS.20b)
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• There is high confidence that ENSO will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, with global effects in the 21st century. • Due to the increase in moisture availability, ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify.
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0.4-0.6 m projected SLR around Southeast Asia region
IPCC 2013 Fig 13.20b
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 14.22
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SSH changes
cm/decade
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 3.10
Global mean sea level from the different measuring systems as they have evolved in time
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 3.13
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Climatology and trend of SSS (sea surface salinity) 1955--2005 1955
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 3.4
Trend of ocean inin-situ partial carbon pressure (pCO2), acidity (pH) and carbonate [CO3] in Bermuda (BATS), Hawaii (ALOHA) and Europe (ESTOC)
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 3.17
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Time series of changes of large scale ocean climate parameters
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 3.20
Trend of Ocean Properties
IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, Fig 3.21
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IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, FAQ 3.3 Fig 1
IPCC Guideline on Wetland 2006 IPCC Guidelines for Agriculture, Forestry and Other land use IPCC the 2013 Supplement to the 2006 Guidelines: Wetlands; there are many Indonesian scientists involve Endorsed in Batumi Georgia during IPCC 37th session, 14-18 October 2013 Annex: Reporting Table in IPCC websites
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Content of IPCC Supplement on Wetland Chapter 2: Drained Inland Organic Soils Chapter 3: Rewetted Organic Soils Chapter 4: Coastal Wetlands Chapter 5: Inland Wetland Mineral Soils Chapter 6: Constructed Wetlands for Wastewater Treatment Chapter 7: Cross-Ctting Issues and Reporting Annex: Reporting Table
TABLE 1.2 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ON-LINE RESOURCES THAT PROVIDE METADATA SETS FOR DEVELOPING AN INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS FROM WETLANDS AND ORGANIC SOILS Online Resources Description The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands The Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, called the http://www.ramsar.org Ramsar Convention, is an intergovernmental treaty that provides the framework for national action and international cooperation for the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources. In 2013, this convention consists of 167 Contracting Parties, 2,122 wetlands of International Importance, and 205,366,160 hectares of wetlands designated as Ramsar sites FAOSTAT A large time series and cross section of data relating to hunger, http://faostat3.fao.org/home/index.html commodity prices, foods, forestry, agriculture, and emissions for 245 countries and territories and 35 regional areas, from 1961 to the most recent year United Nations Environment Programme and Word Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEPWCMC) http://www.unep-wcmc.org/datasets-tools-reports_15.html GeoNetwork Open Source Geographic data sharing for everyone http://geonetwork.grid.unep.ch/geonetwork/s rv/en/ main.home Wetlands International http://www.wetlands.org/
This site provides a set of metadataon conservation in general. It also contains several atlases ofwetlands, e.g. World Mangrove Atlas, and World Atlas of Seagrass
This site is managed by UNEP. It contains geographic metadata that can be freely requested
Wetlands International is the only global not-for-profit organisation dedicated to the conservation and restoration of wetlands. This NGO also has several regional metadatasets, e.g.South Asia Wetlands, Australia Wetlands, etc.
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Chapter 4: Coastal Wetlands This Chapter updates guidance contained in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines to: provide default data for estimation of C stock changes in mangrove living biomass and dead wood pools for coastal wetlands at Tier 1. This Chapter gives new: guidance for CO2emissions and removals from organic and mineral soils for the management activities of extraction (including construction of aquaculture and salt production ponds), drainage and rewetting and revegetation. default data for estimation of anthropogenic CO2emissions and removals for soils in mangrove, tidal marsh and seagrass meadows. guidance for N2O emissions during aquaculture use guidance for CH4emissions for rewetting and revegetation of mangroves and tidal marshes
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Coastal wetland resources pages
the International Soil Reference and Information Centre; www.isric.org
Mangrove
distributions for most countries can be obtained from the RAMSAR web site (www.ramsar.org)
FAOSTAT http://faostat.fao.org/
Global Mangrove Database & Information System: http://www.glomis.com/
The UNESCO Mangrove Programme: http://www.unesco.org/csi/intro/mangrove.htm
Mangrove and the Ramsar Convention: http://www.ramsar.org/types_mangroves.htm
USGS Global Mangrove Project http://lca.usgs.gov/lca/globalmangrove/index.php
Mangrove.org: http://mangrove.org/
Mangrove Action Project: http://www.mangroveactionproject.org/
FAO Mangrove Management: http://www.fao.org/forestry/mangrove/en/
USGS National Wetlands Research Center: http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/index.html
World Atlas of Mangrove: http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/22
World Distribution of Coral Reefs and Mangroves: http://www.unep-wcmc.org
Ambient CO2 measurement Trend= 2.67ppm (logarithmic) Est Dec 2020+ 399.06 ppm Est Dec 2020 -26%=392.63 ppm
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Blue Black Red
: In-situ CO2 measurement at GAW station Kototabang (864.5 asl) : AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2 retrieval above Kototabang : Average AIRS CO2 retrieval above Indonesia
Blue asterisk (*) above marks the location of Kototabang
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DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF ACID DEPOSITION MONITORING NETWORK
BMKG
Development Plan of regional Greenhouse Gasses Monitoring Sites of BMKG
BMKG
Manado Pekanbaru Bukit Tinggi
Balikpapan Palembang
Bengkulu
Banjar Baru
Lampung Semarang Bogor
Malang
CO2 and CH4 ambient measurement sites of BMKG
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BMKG
Konsentrasi Karbon Dioksida/CO2 (ppm) Juli 2013
Medan 434.4 Indrapuri
Manado 393.1
Pontianak 400,7
Pakanbar u
Banjarbaru 392.0
Padang (GAW) 390.4 Semaran g
Bengkulu Lampung
Makasar 386.2
Malang 384.6
Bogor Denpasar 389.3
Kupang 393.6
Pengadaan 2013
BMKG
Konsentrasi Methan/CH4(ppm) Juli 2013
Medan 1.8 Indrapuri
Manado 1.6
Pontianak 1.7
Pakanbar u
Banjarbaru 1.6
Padang (GAW) 1.8 Semaran g
Bengkulu Lampung
Malang 1.7
Makasar 1.7
Bogor Denpasar 1.7
Kupang 1.5
Pengadaan 2013
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Climate Change, Oceanography and renewable energy
Climate Change and Ocean renewable energy Volcanoes or geothermal energy (ocean) Ocean current energy Ocean tides and waves energy Wind energy Solar energy Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Biodiesel from ocean biochemistry
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5°N
Samudra Pasifik
Mindanao Eddy
Sulawesi
Kalimantan
Halmahera Eddy
0°
Halm
Maluku
5°S
Java
110°E
ahe ra
Seram
8 Banda
Flores
10°S
10
~a in N
sill ~680 m ang ak Dew Sill
Java
Samudra Indonesia
1.5
i es law Su
La
Ma kas sar
BMKG
Arus termoklin Pasifik Utara Arus termoklin Pasifik selatan Arus permukaan laut Jawa
Lomb ok
The Indonesian Throughflow source of Ocean current energy
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4.5
1.7
Tim
or
4.3 Timor
ITF Australia
115°E
ARUSMASUK Makassar (8 - 9 Sv) Jalur timur (1 Sv?)
120°E
arus lapisan termoklin
680 m arus dalam Lifamatola (1.5 Sv)
125°E
130°
135°E
KELUAR: Timor, Ombai, Lombok 7.3 - 10.7 Sv (rerata 9 Sv) Celah Makassar 1.8 - 2.3 Sv (rerata 2.1 Sv)
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Ocean current energy ocean as uniting factors of small islands in Indonesia
Wind energy inferred from wave map of BMKG
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Harvesting wind energy from ocean
Ideal option in climate change mitigation because absorbing overflow energy in atmosphere
SOLAR POTENCY ENERGY MAP OF BMKG Capaian hasil : peta energi radiasi matahari interactive (hourly-daily-montlhy-yearly) dalam bentuk tampilan grafis atau parameter statistik yang diperoleh dari data online Automatic Weather Station (AWS) di Indonesia yang dapat digunakan sebagai informasi awal dalam langkah adaptasi dan mitigasi perubahan iklim melalui potensi energi radiasi matahari serta sebagai guideline bagi masyarakat atau lintas sektor Kendala : tidak dapat mengintegrasikan data AWS dengan data radiasi matahari yang manual atau non AWS
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Cold core eddy are rich in nutrient. Center of a cold core eddy are a feast for phytoplankton. BMKG
Cold core eddies are often visible in • Ocean color satellite images • Images of sea surface temperature
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High resolution SST
BMKG
Daily resolution 0.01 degree ~ 1 km spatial resolution SST for 17 February 2012
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Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)
OTEC utilizes the temperature difference between ocean surface and deep ocean and flow the fluid into a condensor that move turbines
Biodisel from ocean biochemistry Peningkatan lingkungan dengan kandungan non-sulfur dan pengurangan CO2 memungkinan dalam perkebunan algae. Sistem Alga foto-bioreaktor merupakan inovasi energi terbarukan yang bersih. Peningkatan lingkungan dengan kandungan non-sulfur dan pengurangan CO2 memungkinan dalam perkebunan algae. Penelitian dalam skala laboratorium yang dilakukan Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi (BPPT) membuktikan algae (ganggang) di laut membesar 20-25 kali hanya dalam 15 hari dengan diberi makan karbondioksida (CO2). “Ganggang dari jenis Chaetoceros sp. dengan jumlah sel awal 40.000 sel per mililiter setelah diberi CO2 menjadi sebesar 780.000 sel per ml dalam 15 hari, bahkan Chlorella sp. dengan jumlah sel awal 40.000 sel per ml menjadi sejuta sel per ml dalam 15 hari,” tukas Kepala BPPT Dr Marzan Aziz Iskandar dalam seminar “Implementasi Pengurangan Emisi Karbondioksida sebagai Upaya Mitigasi Global Warming”. Indonesia yang memiliki potensi laut sangat luas berkesempatan untuk mengambil peran besar dalam menyerap karbon dioksida. Di lain pihak, ujar Marzan, ganggang kemudian bisa dipanen sebagai bahan baku biofuel yang prosesnya memiliki efisiensi 40 persen lebih tinggi dibanding membuat biofuel dengan bahan baku minyak kelapa sawit (CPO). BPPT pun akan melanjutkan penelitian tersebut dengan menghubungkan kultur fotobioreaktor ganggang tersebut di mulut gas buang pembangkit listrik untuk mengetahui penyerapannya terhadap gas CO2 dan menambahkan penelitian berikutnya tentang pemanenan plankton sebagai biofuel.
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Examples of algae bioreaktor as biodiesel producer
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BMKG roles in exploring ocean renewable energy Volcanoes or geothermal energy (ocean), BMKG provides volcanic map Ocean current energy, BMKG provides map of straits with potential tidal energy M1, K1 from ocean modelling Ocean tides and waves energy, BMKG provides coastal wave modeling Wind energy, BMKG provides EnvySat dan Jason satelite interpretation Solar energy, BMKG provides solar energy potency map Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), BMKG provides map of high contrast of sea surface temperature Biodiesel from ocean biochemistry, BMKG provides Seawif satellite data to map algae blooming
Conclusions The global challange includes the threat of global carbon cycle that cause global warming There is ample of evidence from global warming mainly from carbon deposition in the atmosphere, ocean and ice sheet. The present concentration of GHG in ambient could be used as indicator of changing environment or indicator of global warming and can be used for environmental monitoring over atmosphere and ocean BMKG has long record and experience of atmospheric carbon emission that could be used for research in other areas and provides information for exploring renewable energy from ocean.
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TERIMA KASIH THANK YOU VIELEN DANK
BMKG
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