134 Lampiran 1.1 Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara 2009-2012 Provinsi/Kabupaten/Kota 2009 2010 2011 Sumatera Utara 73,8 74,19 74,65 01. N i a s 68,26 68,66 69,09 02. Mandailing Natal 70,27 70,6 71,04 03. Tapanuli Selatan 73,64 74,02 74,45 04. Tapanuli Tengah 70,91 71,21 71,63 05. Tapanuli Utara 73,85 74,31 74,86 06. Toba Samosir 76,22 76,55 76,93 07. Labuhanbatu 73,61 74,03 74,65 08. A s a h a n 72,16 72,54 73,25 09. Simalungun 73,13 73,5 73,94 10. D a i r i 72,38 72,86 73,49 11. K a r o 74,84 75,34 75,79 12. Deli Serdang 74,67 75,28 75,78 13. L a n g k a t 72,82 73,18 73,62 14. Nias Selatan 66,27 67,15 67,72 15. Humbang Hasundutan 71,64 71,94 72,43 16. Pakpak Bharat 70,36 70,8 71,2 17. Samosir 73,42 73,7 74,27 18. Serdang Bedagai 72,94 73,25 73,64 19. Batu Bara 71,25 71,62 72,08 20. Padang Lawas Utara 72,11 72,52 73,25 21. Padang Lawas 71,68 71,98 72,55 22. Labuhanbatu Selatan 73,52 73,84 74,38 23. Labuhanbatu Utara 73,1 73,45 74,14 24. Nias Utara 67,36 67,75 68,18 25. Nias Barat 65,96 66,46 67,1 26. S i b o l g a 74,82 75,08 75,5 27. Tanjungbalai 73,64 74,14 74,72 28. Pematangsiantar 77,18 77,51 77,93 29. Tebing Tinggi 76,1 76,49 76,91 30. M e d a n 76,99 77,36 77,81 31. B i n j a i 76,09 76,41 76,88 32. Padangsidimpuan 74,77 75,21 75,58 33. Gunungsitoli 71,33 71,67 72,21 Sumber : BPS Sumatera Utara (diolah)
2012 75,13 69,55 71,44 74,78 72,04 75,33 77,21 75,29 73,8 74,35 73,86 76,22 76,17 73,98 68,23 72,96 72 74,72 74,07 72,8 73,59 72,96 74,9 74,92 68,71 67,59 75,73 75,06 78,27 77,34 78,25 77,36 76,04 72,71
Universitas Sumatera Utara
135
Lampiran 2.1. Aspek, Fokus dan Indikator Kinerja Kunci EKPOD No 1.
2.
Aspek dan Indikator Fokus Aspek Kesejahteraan Masyarakat a Fokus Kesejahteraan dan Pertumbuhan PDRB, Laju inflasi, PDRB per Kapita, Pemerataan Ekonomi Indeks Gini, pemerataan pendapatan versi Bank Dunia, Indeks Ketimpangan Wiliamson/Regional, b Fokus Kesejahteraan Angka melek huruf, angka rata-rata lama sekolah, angka (pendidikan, kesehatan, partisipasi murni, angka partisipasi kasar, angka kemiskinan, kepemilikan pendidikan yang ditamatkan, angka kelangsungan hidup tanah, kesempatan kerja, bayi, angka usia harapan hibup, persentase balita gizi kriminalitas) buruk, persentase penduduk di atas garis kemiskinan, persentase penduduk memiliki lahan, rasio penduduk bekerja, angka kriminalitas yang ditangani c Fokus Seni Budaya dan Olah Jumlah group kesenian, jumlah gedung kesenian, jumlah Raga klub olah raga, jumlah gedung olah raga Aspek Pelayanan Umum a Fokus Pelayanan Dasar Angka pastisipasi sekolah, rasio ketersediaan (pendidikan, kesehatan, sekolah/penduduk, rasio guru/murid, rasio guru/murid lingkungan hidup, sarana dan per kalas rata-rata, rasio posyandu per satuan balita, rasio prasarana umum, penataan puskesmas + poliklinik + pustu per satuan penduduk, ruang, perhubungan) rasio rumah sakit per satuan penduduk, rasio dokter per satuan penduduk, rasio tenaga medis per satuan penduduk, persentase penangan sampah, persentase penduduk berakses air minum, persentase luas permukiman yang tertata, proporsi panjang jalan dalam kondisi baik, rasio jaringan irigasi, rasio tempat ibadah per satuan penduduk, persentase rumah tinggal bersanitasi, rsio pemakaman umum per satuan penduduk, rasio tempat pembuangan sampah per satuan penduduk, rasio rumah layak huni, rasio permukiman layak huni, rasio ruang terbuka hijau per satuan luas wilayah HPL/HGB, rasio bangunan ber IMB per satuan bangunan, jumlah arus penumpang angkutan umum, jumlah arus penumpang angkutan umum, rasio ijin trayek, jumlah uji kir angkutan umum, jumlah pelabuhan laut/udara/terminal bis b Fokus Pelayanan Penunjang Jumlah investor berskala nasional (PMDN/PMA), jumlah (penanaman modal, KUKM, nilai investasi berskala nasional (PMDN/PMA), rasio kependudukan dan catatan daya serap tenaga kerja, persentase kopersi aktif, jumlah sipil, ketenagakerjaan, UMKM non BPR/LKMUKM, jumlah BPR/LKM, rasio pemberdayaan perempuan penduduk ber-KTP per satuan penduduk, rasio bayi dan perlindungan anak, KB berakte kelahiran, rasio pasangan berakte nikah, angka dan KS, Komunikasi dan pastisipasi angkatan kerja, angka sengketa pengusahaInformastika, Pertanahan, pekerja per tahun, persentasi partisipasi perempuan di Pemberdayaan Masyarakat lembaga pemerintah, partisipasi perempuan di lembaga dan desa, perpustakaan, swasta, rasio KDRT, persentase jumlah tenaga kerja di penyelenggaraan keamanan, bawah umum, rata-rata jumlah anak per keluarga, rasio dan ketertiban masyarakat, akseptor KB, jumlah jaringan komunikasi, rasio pemuda) wartel/waenet terhadap penduduk, jumlah surat kabar nasional/lokal, jumlah penyiaran radio/TV lokal, persentase luas lahan bersertifikat, rata-rata jumlah
Universitas Sumatera Utara
136 No
Aspek dan Fokus
Indikator kelompok binaan lembaga pembersayaan masyarakat (LPM), rata-rata jumlah kelompok binaan PKK, jumlah LSM, jumlah perpustakaan, jumlah pengunjung perpustakaan per tahun, rasio polisi pamong praja per 10.000 penduduk, jumlah linmas per 10.000 penduduk, rsioa pos siskamling per jumlah desa/kelurahan, jumlah organisasi pemuda, jumlah organisasi olahraga, jumlah kegiatan kepemudaan, jumlah kegiatan olah raga
3.
Aspek Daya Saing Daerah a Fokus Kemampuan Ekonomi Daerah (pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita, nilai tukar petani, pengeluaran konsumsi non pangan perkapita, produktivitas total daerah) b Fokus Fasiitas Wilayah/Infrastruktur (aksesibilitas daerah, penataan wilayah, fasilitas bank dan non bank, ketersediaan air bersih, fasilitas listrik dan telepon, ketersediaan restoran, ketersediaan penginapan)
c
d
Angka konsumsi RT per kapita, perbandingan faktor produksi dengan produk, persentase konsumsi RT untuk non pangan, produktivitas daerah setiap sektor pada 9 sektor
Rasio panjang jalan per jumlah kendaraan, jumlah orang/barang yang terangkut angkutan umum, jumlah orang/barang melalui dermaga/bandara/terminal per tahun, ketaatan terhadap RTRW, luas wilayah produktif, luas wilayah industri, luas wilayah kebanjiran, luas wilayah kekeringan, luas wilayah perkotaan, jenis dan jumlah bank dan cabang-cabangnya, jenis dan jumlah perusahaan asuransi dan cabang-cabangnya, persentase rumah tangga (RT) yang menggunakan air bersih, rasio ketersediaan daya litrik, persentase rumah tangg yang menggunakan listrik, persentase penduduk yang menggunakan HP/telepon, jenis/kelas dan jumlah restoran, jenis/ kelas dan jumlah penginapan/hotel, angka Angka kriminalitas, jumlah demo, lama perijinan, jumlah dan macam pajak dan retribusi daerah, jumlah perda yang mendukung iklim usaha, persentase desa berstatus swasembada terhadap total desa
Iklim Berinvestasi (Keamanan dan ketertiban, kemudahan perijinan, pengenaan pajak daerah, Perda,status desa) Fokus Sumber Daya Manusia Rasio lulusan S1/S2/S3, rasio ketergantungan (kualitas tenaga kerja, tingkat ketergantungan)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
137 Lampiran 4.1. Tabel Waktu Penelitian Waktu
Langkah Penelitian
April s.d. Mei Pengumpulan 2014
Pembangunan
data
Sumber Data Indeks BPS, http://sumut.bps.go.id/
Manusia
(IPM)
tahun 2009-2012 Mei s.d. Juni Pengumpulan data variabel DAU, LHA BPK RI/, 2014
DAK, PAD, DBH dan BKP tahun http://www.djpk.kemenkeu.go.id/ 2009-2012
Juli
s.d. Pengumpulan data variabel Belanja Hasil Evaluasi Kinerja
Agustus 2014
Pelayanan Dasar (BPD) tahun 2009- Penyelenggaraan Pemerintah 2012
Daerah (EKPPD) Inspektorat Proivinsi Sumatera Utara dan Perwakilan BPKP Sumatera Utara
Agustus
s.d. Analisis
November
asumsi
2014
hipotesis)
penelitian klasik
dan
(pengujian Aplikasi Eviews pengujian
Universitas Sumatera Utara
138 Lampiran 4.2 Sampel Penelitian NO
NAMA KABUPATEN/ KOTA
1. N i a s 2. Mandailing Natal 3. Tapanuli Selatan 4. Tapanuli Tengah 5. Tapanuli Utara 6. Toba Samosir 7. Labuhanbatu 8. A s a h a n 9. Simalungun 10. D a i r i 11. K a r o 12. Deli Serdang 13. L a n g k a t 14. Nias Selatan 15. Humbang Hasundutan 16. Pakpak Bharat 17. Samosir 18. Serdang Bedagai 19. Batu Bara 20. Padang Lawas Utara 21. Padang Lawas 22. Labuhanbatu Selatan 23. Labuhanbatu Utara 24. Nias Utara 25. Nias Barat 26. S i b o l g a 27. Tanjungbalai 28. Pematangsiantar 29. Tebing Tinggi 30. M e d a n 31. B i n j a i 32. Padangsidimpuan 33. Gunungsitoli Sumber : www.depkeu.djpk.go.id. 2014.
KRITERIA 1 2
√ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ x x √ √ √ √ √ √ √ x
√ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ x x √ √ √ √ √ √ √ x
SAMPEL
Sampel 1 Sampel 2 Sampel 3 Sampel 4 Sampel 5 Sampel 6 Sampel 7 Sampel 8 Sampel 9 Sampel 10 Sampel 11 Sampel 12 Sampel 13 Sampel 14 Sampel 15 Sampel 16 Sampel 17 Sampel 18 Sampel 19 Sampel 20 Sampel 21 Sampel 22 Sampel 23 Sampel 24 Sampel 25 Sampel 26 Sampel 27 Sampel 28 Sampel 29 Sampel 30 -
Universitas Sumatera Utara
139 Lampiran 5.1. DATA OBSEVASI obs _mes-2009 _mes-2010 _mes-2011 _mes-2012 _binj-2009 _binj-2010 _binj-2011 _binj-2012 _ttinggi-2009 _ttinggi-2010 _ttinggi-2011 _ttinggi-2012 _psian-2009 _psian-2010 _psian-2011 _psian-2012 _tjbalai-2009 _tjbalai-2010 _tjbalai-2011 _tjbalai-2012 _psidem-2009 _psidem-2010 _psidem-2011 _psidem-2012 _sibol-2009 _sibol-2010 _sibol-2011 _sibol-2012 _lang-2009 _lang-2010 _lang-2011 _lang-2012 _dser-2009 _dser-2010 _dser-2011 _dser-2012 _sergai-2009 _sergai-2010 _sergai-2011 _sergai-2012 _kar-2009 _kar-2010 _kar-2011
IPM 76.99000 77.36000 77.81000 78.25000 76.09000 76.41000 76.88000 77.36000 76.10000 76.49000 76.91000 77.34000 77.18000 77.51000 77.93000 78.27000 73.64000 74.14000 74.72000 75.06000 74.77000 75.21000 75.58000 76.04000 74.82000 75.08000 75.50000 75.73000 72.82000 73.18000 73.62000 73.98000 74.67000 75.28000 75.78000 76.17000 72.94000 73.25000 73.64000 74.07000 74.84000 75.34000 75.79000
DAU 900.2060 846.5415 1066.354 1153.789 283.6362 293.5367 336.7795 416.9652 221.4051 228.0578 261.9487 307.6357 307.5287 313.9417 352.5256 429.6322 197.6420 241.9215 275.5255 313.7297 256.5388 270.1291 308.0145 364.9233 211.2067 227.2162 248.4055 292.8731 597.4730 633.7014 736.8878 847.5030 784.0170 793.1417 888.5572 1100.014 396.3522 420.2587 458.1603 554.2455 393.3900 401.7103 441.5666
DAK 50.64500 67.20100 81.59460 66.29827 28.39900 24.83150 25.26620 23.77797 33.28500 17.80740 22.08620 25.32348 39.22800 23.10740 24.78320 28.44708 16.24350 19.50840 20.19800 17.95574 38.75100 20.66160 25.56850 23.98660 37.46100 18.13590 22.75390 19.29026 63.97200 65.86570 53.87270 56.05673 91.18800 85.58990 67.17820 65.47816 75.21400 61.30880 65.75040 64.70490 49.37000 47.51800 42.43900
PAD 368.5640 588.9415 995.0726 1147.901 17.27261 18.83288 26.47012 48.17808 17.33906 26.27247 32.73879 47.33098 20.45843 25.91094 44.79275 49.91537 11.69802 24.12601 27.08906 27.70237 11.83601 14.60238 21.46527 23.62231 12.82015 15.11841 21.66339 26.69835 33.98712 31.35701 34.54064 129.2430 103.6863 120.5372 213.7915 290.4959 19.01870 22.09319 35.89440 39.27457 27.18684 27.68556 35.36333
DBH 1787.457 534.8778 398.3763 1571.285 64.10600 53.96046 55.68657 492.6636 18.91200 34.63293 29.43414 400.5586 28.09300 44.76865 47.50050 508.1728 20.37400 18.61769 26.68226 16.45241 26.82900 33.45957 32.64379 427.1093 22.18600 27.02165 25.17651 337.2045 132.8390 173.0621 168.6657 1082.904 123.9560 211.3022 213.2176 227.2002 46.26600 71.79072 69.14369 684.9332 19.70500 47.35878 50.23534
BKP 36.20717 31.82216 33.55927 27.62010 13.92932 29.80774 43.62891 88.17381 6.680124 5.899360 0.000000 36.64844 18.07861 36.24487 15.65313 48.97298 31.00773 35.52738 40.72729 18.83593 31.12816 46.55560 11.39738 40.76432 6.659839 3.827670 43.19881 28.03746 46.58619 14.13307 18.27697 49.64280 32.91278 27.36646 26.32552 0.000000 16.42739 15.94316 26.14837 75.97871 69.34845 56.96904 17.84383
BPD 41.87911 61.70421 58.17198 64.94502 49.60803 20.35310 67.71154 81.37546 21.18123 66.52903 69.00486 74.29106 55.40026 61.03680 63.16580 68.46790 34.15391 52.85486 62.19943 70.42654 68.35510 19.97689 70.40183 76.00494 45.15502 66.26133 62.91704 62.86654 64.68498 72.23612 74.59015 75.77722 66.28530 75.86497 68.85205 71.57254 65.49825 62.64864 70.58510 69.05682 71.18630 71.69262 71.86789
Universitas Sumatera Utara
140 obs _kar-2012 _dairi-2009 _dairi-2010 _dairi-2011 _dairi-2012 _pakb-2009 _pakb-2010 _pakb-2011 _pakb-2012 _asah-2009 _asah-2010 _asah-2011 _asah-2012 _lab-2009 _lab-2010 _lab-2011 _lab-2012 _simal-2009 _simal-2010 _simal-2011 _simal-2012 _tobas-2009 _tobas-2010 _tobas-2011 _tobas-2012 _samos-2009 _samos-2010 _samos-2011 _samos-2012 _taput-2009 _taput-2010 _taput-2011 _taput-2012 _humha-2009 _humha-2010 _humha-2011 _humha-2012 _tapte-2009 _tapte-2010 _tapte-2011 _tapte-2012 _tapse-2009 _tapse-2010 _tapse-2011 _tapse-2012 _madin-2009
IPM 76.22000 72.38000 72.86000 73.49000 73.86000 70.36000 70.80000 71.20000 72.00000 72.16000 72.54000 73.25000 73.80000 73.61000 74.03000 74.65000 75.29000 73.13000 73.50000 73.94000 74.35000 76.22000 76.55000 76.93000 77.21000 73.42000 73.70000 74.27000 74.72000 73.85000 74.31000 74.86000 75.33000 71.64000 71.94000 72.43000 72.96000 70.91000 71.21000 71.63000 72.04000 73.64000 74.02000 74.45000 74.78000 70.27000
DAU 546.2948 327.8350 336.8647 372.3734 451.1761 162.4065 167.7803 198.2392 232.9903 446.5607 479.2993 523.5618 628.9750 247.3088 315.3093 367.7376 461.6443 634.4281 644.6109 696.2253 865.4059 279.8990 280.4499 310.2524 387.6232 234.9450 243.0416 282.9883 331.4126 360.5469 369.2751 405.8225 487.3455 260.0555 279.8930 313.4312 376.8472 292.5882 313.9577 343.7315 422.6117 274.9236 334.7378 375.8938 454.3223 385.2207
DAK 38.42659 48.02600 44.11380 44.14470 43.35720 42.34100 24.61070 28.83140 25.46090 77.53200 48.28830 50.62640 65.20666 57.28000 45.05490 45.50880 75.49669 77.47600 62.05305 73.94540 90.86863 50.05600 46.94920 51.43470 52.11977 55.79700 38.96970 35.62380 27.84460 60.75600 48.01850 56.79160 50.22062 49.25700 29.21050 31.60680 28.96814 58.62000 51.29990 52.30010 48.64424 54.19000 41.49540 44.49190 53.36697 52.78100
PAD 41.24297 14.24449 19.83572 17.67347 20.91151 5.282211 4.533365 6.306029 6.353112 21.07622 25.98219 31.84433 37.89459 39.01370 38.53221 50.95856 59.43917 35.49435 45.25560 42.54335 61.24650 9.661372 11.98855 14.11773 16.54268 14.83244 11.81322 14.20158 17.45963 12.61665 15.43301 36.06316 34.02312 8.039936 10.00722 12.87003 17.90193 13.31393 13.37178 18.20968 21.13680 23.00640 30.49679 57.46381 56.16014 10.08565
DBH 625.6941 26.34600 46.90678 38.51420 529.4342 24.15991 27.26558 25.78491 284.3789 38.14100 93.62971 96.53301 918.2259 47.60085 80.78103 83.99698 619.0479 73.56500 90.76748 95.18573 1041.102 28.57800 38.16294 28.79772 470.9563 27.07565 24.50711 22.31068 385.6596 27.10600 38.76321 40.57912 578.2537 30.02300 43.70970 37.51063 445.2097 23.25142 44.02384 39.84984 523.6936 45.63200 53.84230 51.63728 628.2025 30.75900
BKP 20.01534 3.321876 6.269380 9.044245 12.89419 9.649061 3.856609 4.697353 10.24810 10.59661 6.782555 1.801946 0.481469 25.57242 26.64436 5.081875 37.47078 30.27048 14.78274 16.55831 169.4399 15.35549 25.45521 19.26498 120.3425 23.09455 57.09110 60.79551 44.61318 46.05769 14.83039 6.714712 45.25144 10.11337 0.000000 17.35760 38.68033 0.000000 0.000000 6.985854 109.3341 0.000000 0.135564 0.121458 0.000000 0.000000
BPD 71.57254 25.88116 74.65791 65.82067 69.65418 55.69484 59.18102 50.26418 58.51754 53.35047 73.63338 66.70696 68.75107 0.141590 67.48377 69.21017 74.19365 66.95426 81.39866 69.68629 76.36926 59.65028 65.56114 66.13315 65.48446 45.76538 63.34219 61.03580 69.94943 59.33686 71.57640 69.22107 71.45115 52.66047 61.82855 64.81279 69.08718 30.03132 66.55831 69.95530 68.93136 31.94014 72.69322 63.58076 63.62940 47.21686
Universitas Sumatera Utara
141 obs _madin-2010 _madin-2011 _madin-2012 _nias-2009 _nias-2010 _nias-2011 _nias-2012 _nisel-2009 _nisel-2010 _nisel-2011 _nisel-2012 _bbara-2009 _bbara-2010 _bbara-2011 _bbara-2012 _palas-2009 _palas-2010 _palas-2011 _palas-2012 _paluta-2009 _paluta-2010 _paluta-2011 _paluta-2012 _labura-2009 _labura-2010 _labura-2011 _labura-2012 _labusel-2009 _labusel-2010 _labusel-2011 _labusel-2012
IPM 70.60000 71.04000 71.44000 68.26000 68.66000 69.09000 69.55000 66.27000 67.15000 67.72000 68.23000 71.25000 71.62000 72.08000 72.80000 71.68000 71.98000 72.55000 72.96000 72.11000 72.52000 73.25000 73.59000 73.10000 73.45000 74.14000 74.92000 73.52000 73.84000 74.38000 74.90000
DAU 398.4823 455.3934 541.1066 400.2434 151.1473 265.2176 289.6081 267.9810 277.8873 318.9209 378.6056 315.3162 337.6632 385.8830 452.2275 150.5775 241.1067 249.4968 331.7544 393.3900 243.9695 262.5394 348.0563 0.000000 296.8097 346.6847 400.6020 0.000000 249.0910 266.9227 334.5123
DAK 58.13140 48.45160 41.55583 78.07400 53.79090 54.94310 48.13726 26.79810 57.17648 54.19310 64.67917 54.80100 42.83200 29.20163 44.14864 16.92300 42.76760 40.01670 42.52085 16.92300 30.44325 44.75920 36.73324 49.37000 29.56550 33.34463 42.49514 1.106700 29.99300 35.43320 25.66350
PAD 11.82586 27.52585 21.27411 23.16953 17.62958 18.94390 29.82167 14.54422 10.27624 23.03072 12.14686 13.68227 20.61674 13.24086 16.55818 4.335375 12.52814 7.628252 9.881177 27.18684 5.332770 8.728414 12.79814 224.0708 10.65725 10.51825 18.97112 223.9971 8.371926 17.08127 18.97664
DBH 57.40631 54.83042 691.6986 8.620850 20.18191 20.05213 373.7411 24.39871 39.69996 31.20341 506.3569 32.79423 13.89410 40.96908 532.7816 38.68059 45.31152 40.03634 417.5634 44.73923 40.94380 43.19212 423.9143 38.14698 44.55654 52.79926 490.3406 53.63878 63.15069 61.94736 421.8966
BKP 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 18.59068 51.35852 2.869000 3.557916 0.000000 11.97700 4.142317 0.000000 17.09230 11.67060 18.71746 55.71324 19.93393 25.97258 18.66948 36.80726 26.36528 9.062160 32.25365 121.5364 4.000000 5.705280 4.697440 124.9261 4.000000 3.717760 12.59651 40.76848
BPD 62.13809 65.27137 71.86346 56.65295 52.01563 59.28984 58.07043 58.36424 46.40254 60.35260 62.28729 66.84363 67.60941 66.81029 68.50603 57.57247 61.50918 60.00960 69.86734 63.85659 66.38777 67.59287 77.29961 23.81533 3.200801 67.70080 48.68708 34.50584 47.81402 66.04235 66.34388
Universitas Sumatera Utara
142
Estimasi Model Regresi Data Panel Pooled EGLS Kabupaten dan Kota No Kabupaten/Kota Kode Persamaan Estimasi 8.4186+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 1 Medan _mes 2
Binjai
_binj
3
Tebing Tinggi
_ttinggi
4
Pematangsiantar
_psian
5
Tanjungbalai
_tjbalai
6
Padangsidimpuan
_psidem
7
Sibolga
_sibol
8
Langkat
_lang
9
Deli Serdang
_dser
10
Serdang Bedagai
_sergai
11
K a r o
_kar
12
Dairi
_dairi
13
Pakpak Bharat
_pakb
14
Asahan
_asah
15
Labuhanbatu
_lab
16
Simalungun
_simal
17
Toba Samosir
_tobas
18
Samosir
_samos
19
Tapanuli Utara
_taput
20
_humha
21
Humbang Hasundutan Tapanuli Tengah
22
Tapanuli Selatan
_tapse
23
Mandailing Natal
_madin
24
Nias
_nias
25
Nias Selatan
_nisel
26
Batubara
_bbara
_tapte
0.000391 BKP 8.616647+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.637784+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.670019+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.509393+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.559588+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.565701+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.355006+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.420579+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.420755+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.533656+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.420926+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.352551+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.374934+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.484163+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.38328+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.645255+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.49524+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.496213+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.382985+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.331722+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.474134+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.27264+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.197069+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.094651+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.350376+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP
Universitas Sumatera Utara
143 No Kabupaten/Kota 27 Padanglawas
Kode _palas
28
Padanglawas Utara
_paluta
29
Labuhanbatu Utara
_labura
30
Labuhanbatu Selatan
_labusel
Persamaan Estimasi 8.405552+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.415761+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.489407+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP 8.505274+ 0.008213DAU - 0.005401DAK + 0.006189PAD + 0.001087DBH + 0.000391 BKP
Universitas Sumatera Utara
144 Lampiran 5.2. Hasil Pengolahan Data dengan Eviews 1.
Regresi auxiliary beserta nilai koefisien determinasi Rj2 (Data Awal Sebelum Transformasi) 2.
DAU = b0 + b1 DAK + b2 PAD + b3 DBH + b4BKP
3.
DAK = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 PAD + b3 DBH + b4BKP
4.
PAD = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 DAK + b3 DBH + b4BKP
5.
DBH = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 DAK + b3 PAD + b4BKP
6.
BKP = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 DAK + b3 DBH + b4PAD
Dependent Variable: DAU? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable C DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP? R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
90.92346 5.137628 0.450495 0.220620 0.118647
29.20635 0.612402 0.082551 0.043920 0.405299
3.113140 8.389306 5.457184 5.023172 0.292741
0.0023 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.7702
0.694420 0.683791 114.7406 1514021. -736.8399 0.752262
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
393.6302 204.0470 12.36400 12.48014 65.33347 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DAK? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? PAD?
18.85642 0.073897 -0.016177
3.195522 0.008808 0.011006
5.900888 8.389306 -1.469920
0.0000 0.0000 0.1443
Universitas Sumatera Utara
DBH? BKP? R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
-0.012524 0.009358 0.437808 0.418253 13.76095 21776.83 -482.3392 0.830147
0.005698 0.048618
-2.197898 0.192471
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.0300 0.8477 44.77115 18.04186 8.122321 8.238466 22.38908 0.000000
Dependent Variable: PAD? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? DBH? BKP?
-69.94253 0.456600 -1.139972 0.103748 -0.850492
29.91477 0.083670 0.775533 0.047860 0.400409
-2.338060 5.457184 -1.469920 2.167769 -2.124059
0.0211 0.0000 0.1443 0.0322 0.0358
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.440325 0.420858 115.5154 1534538. -737.6475 0.559714
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
57.50350 151.7914 12.37746 12.49360 22.61906 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DBH? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK?
-79.47552 0.815573 -3.218851
58.00153 0.162362 1.464514
-1.370232 5.023172 -2.197898
0.1733 0.0000 0.0300
145 Universitas Sumatera Utara
PAD? BKP? R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.378402 3.081818 0.489447 0.471689 220.6104 5596929. -815.2868 1.632925
0.174558 0.724648
2.167769 4.252846
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.0322 0.0000 198.2622 303.5156 13.67145 13.78759 27.56150 0.000000
Dependent Variable: BKP? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH?
15.45054 0.006276 0.034413 -0.044387 0.044098
6.844579 0.021439 0.178799 0.020897 0.010369
2.257340 0.292741 0.192471 -2.124059 4.252846
0.0259 0.7702 0.8477 0.0358 0.0000
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.183949 0.155565 26.38951 80086.71 -560.4750 1.216693
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
25.65227 28.71760 9.424584 9.540729 6.480655 0.000097
146 Universitas Sumatera Utara
2. Regresi auxiliary beserta nilai koefisien determinasi Rj2 (Data Awal Setelah Transformasi) 1.
DAU = b0 + b1 DAK + b2 PAD + b3 DBH + b4BKP
2.
DAK = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 PAD + b3 DBH + b4BKP
3.
PAD = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 DAK + b3 DBH + b4BKP
4.
DBH = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 DAK + b3 PAD + b4BKP
5.
BKP = b0 + b1 DAU + b2 DAK + b3 DBH + b4PAD
Dependent Variable: DAU? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable C DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP? R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
4.146513 1.674717 0.233112 0.205286 0.076425
1.459638 0.216252 0.070704 0.042919 0.122649
2.840782 7.744292 3.297025 4.783161 0.623121
0.0053 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.5344
0.613366 0.599918 3.169867 1155.526 -306.1618 1.141727
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
19.21522 5.011483 5.186030 5.302175 45.60967 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DAK? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? PAD?
3.099735 0.204667 -0.006982
0.441695 0.026428 0.025851
7.017821 7.744292 -0.270081
0.0000 0.0000 0.7876
147 Universitas Sumatera Utara
DBH? BKP? R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
-0.026228 -0.025553 0.402700 0.381925 1.108139 141.2169 -180.0409 0.887437
0.016245 0.042882
-1.614511 -0.595879
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.1092 0.5524 6.580344 1.409528 3.084015 3.200161 19.38329 0.000000
Dependent Variable: PAD? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? DBH? BKP?
-1.657539 0.370472 -0.090792 0.174539 -0.208035
1.897278 0.112366 0.336167 0.056964 0.153658
-0.873641 3.297025 -0.270081 3.064039 -1.353882
0.3841 0.0013 0.7876 0.0027 0.1784
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.332376 0.309154 3.996097 1836.411 -333.9572 0.716343
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
5.922946 4.807788 5.649287 5.765432 14.31313 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DBH? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? PAD? BKP?
-4.910600 0.808301 -0.845042 0.432430 0.841218
2.961059 0.168989 0.523404 0.141131 0.230816
-1.658393 4.783161 -1.614511 3.064039 3.644533
0.1000 0.0000 0.1092 0.0027 0.0004
148 Universitas Sumatera Utara
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.458449 0.439612 6.289958 4549.811 -388.3936 1.582000
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
11.34681 8.402402 6.556560 6.672705 24.33825 0.000000
Dependent Variable: BKP? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH?
3.424940 0.044030 -0.120460 -0.075415 0.123086
1.100718 0.070660 0.202155 0.055703 0.033773
3.111552 0.623121 -0.595879 -1.353882 3.644533
0.0023 0.5344 0.5524 0.1784 0.0004
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.152087 0.122595 2.406008 665.7204 -273.0753 0.965647
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
4.428265 2.568602 4.634588 4.750734 5.156796 0.000740
149 Universitas Sumatera Utara
3. Tabel Uji Hausman Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL_MODERATING Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Cross-section random
Chi-Sq. Statistic
Chi-Sq. d.f.
Prob.
19.310246
5
0.0017
Random
Var(Diff.)
Prob.
0.006194 -0.002816 0.004636 0.001759 0.000114
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.9772 0.0020 0.7549 0.0571 0.0002
Cross-section random effects test comparisons: Variable DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP?
Fixed 0.006189 -0.001457 0.004550 0.001830 -0.000305
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: IPM? Method: Panel Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP?
8.459965 0.006189 -0.001457 0.004550 0.001830 -0.000305
0.024895 0.000943 0.002739 0.001048 0.000353 0.001095
339.8204 6.563313 -0.531916 4.341658 5.181254 -0.278610
0.0000 0.0000 0.5962 0.0000 0.0000 0.7812
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.985885 0.980239 0.019799 0.033320 321.0728 174.6126 0.000000
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
8.615654 0.140842 -4.767880 -3.954861 -4.437709 1.841452
150 Universitas Sumatera Utara
4. Estimasi Regresi Data Penel Fixed Effect Model (FEM) Dependent Variable: IPM? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable C DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP? Fixed Effects (Cross) _MES—C _BINJ—C _TTINGGI--C _PSIAN--C _TJBALAI--C _PSIDEM--C _SIBOL--C _LANG—C _DSER--C _SERGAI--C _KAR—C _DAIRI--C _PAKB--C _ASAH--C _LAB—C _SIMAL--C _TOBAS--C _SAMOS--C _TAPUT--C _HUMHA--C _TAPTE--C _TAPSE--C _MADIN--C _NIAS--C _NISEL--C _BBARA--C _PALAS--C _PALUTA--C _LABURA--C _LABUSEL--C
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
8.459965 0.006189 -0.001457 0.004550 0.001830 -0.000305
0.024895 0.000943 0.002739 0.001048 0.000353 0.001095
339.8204 6.563313 -0.531916 4.341658 5.181254 -0.278610
0.0000 0.0000 0.5962 0.0000 0.0000 0.7812
0.015520 0.177946 0.194926 0.232302 0.072943 0.117888 0.121789 -0.079459 0.000547 -0.024917 0.095596 -0.025266 -0.101340 -0.069653 0.037547 -0.052683 0.196158 0.048513 0.051621 -0.063842 -0.117866 0.027278 -0.174111 -0.255246 -0.357290 -0.093581 -0.045472 -0.028100 0.039472 0.058780 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression
0.985885 0.980239 0.019799
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion
8.615654 0.140842 -4.767880
151 Universitas Sumatera Utara
Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.033320 321.0728 174.6126 0.000000
Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
-3.954861 -4.437709 1.841452
152 Universitas Sumatera Utara
5.
Hasil Regresi Data Panel Variabel BPD dengan FEM
Dependent Variable: BPD? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP? Fixed Effects (Cross) _MES—C _BINJ—C _TTINGGI--C _PSIAN--C _TJBALAI--C _PSIDEM--C _SIBOL--C _LANG--C _DSER--C _SERGAI--C _KAR—C _DAIRI—C _PAKB—C _ASAH—C _LAB—C _SIMAL--C _TOBAS--C _SAMOS--C _TAPUT--C _HUMHA--C _TAPTE--C _TAPSE--C _MADIN--C _NIAS—C _NISEL--C _BBARA--C _PALAS--C _PALUTA--C _LABURA--C
4.155705 0.176135 -0.083206 0.103663 0.006816 0.011869
1.437027 0.054428 0.158120 0.060486 0.020386 0.063221
2.891876 3.236082 -0.526218 1.713836 0.334349 0.187741
0.0049 0.0017 0.6001 0.0902 0.7389 0.8515
-4.582064 -0.389368 0.239044 0.155338 0.181129 0.160716 0.653099 -0.605790 -1.754770 0.268007 0.434613 0.042614 1.040690 -0.083287 -1.145083 -0.399241 0.840469 0.677021 0.540596 0.678099 0.265254 -0.089641 0.064385 0.545673 0.401733 0.691658 1.092247 1.017977 -1.399685
153 Universitas Sumatera Utara
_LABUSEL--C
0.458566 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.388449 0.143828 1.142849 111.0188 -165.6051 2.626678
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
7.736548 1.235118 3.343418 4.156437 1.587964 0.045195
154 Universitas Sumatera Utara
6.
Uji Moderating
Dependent Variable: ABS(RESID?) Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C IPM? Fixed Effects (Cross) _MES--C _BINJ--C _TTINGGI--C _PSIAN--C _TJBALAI--C _PSIDEM--C _SIBOL--C _LANG--C _DSER--C _SERGAI--C _KAR--C _DAIRI--C _PAKB--C _ASAH--C _LAB--C _SIMAL--C _TOBAS--C _SAMOS--C _TAPUT--C _HUMHA--C _TAPTE--C _TAPSE--C _MADIN--C _NIAS--C _NISEL--C _BBARA--C _PALAS--C _PALUTA--C _LABURA--C _LABUSEL--C
47.91531 -5.491583
14.40337 1.671757
3.326673 -3.284917
0.0013 0.0015
1.181549 1.517139 1.527725 0.754237 0.141413 1.342510 0.275096 -0.302659 0.589657 -0.417589 0.271087 0.277369 -1.129317 -0.533871 2.164153 -0.265938 0.573492 -0.202834 -0.072559 -0.926924 -0.485887 0.254320 -1.258764 -1.819725 -2.463062 -0.907364 -0.946864 -0.401300 1.370189 -0.105278 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
155 Universitas Sumatera Utara
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.596143 0.460011 0.553727 27.28859 -81.41123 2.388536
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.601726 0.753535 1.873521 2.593623 4.379168 0.000000
156 Universitas Sumatera Utara
157 Lampiran 6
Estimasi Regresi Data Panel : Fixed Effect Model (FEM) Statis dan Dinamis (ADL) 1. STATIS ESTIMASI MODEL : FIXED EFFECT MODEL Persamaan Eviews : ipm? c dau? dak? pad? dbh? bkp?
Dependent Variable: IPM? Method: Pooled Least Squares Sample: 2009 2012 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 120 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C DAU? DAK? PAD? DBH? BKP? Fixed Effects (Cross) _MES--C _BINJ--C _TTINGGI--C _PSIAN--C _TJBALAI--C _PSIDEM--C _SIBOL--C _LANG--C _DSER--C _SERGAI--C _KAR--C _DAIRI--C _PAKB--C _ASAH--C _LAB--C _SIMAL--C _TOBAS--C _SAMOS--C _TAPUT--C _HUMHA--C _TAPTE--C _TAPSE--C _MADIN--C
8.459965 0.006189 -0.001457 0.004550 0.001830 -0.000305
0.024895 0.000943 0.002739 0.001048 0.000353 0.001095
339.8204 6.563313 -0.531916 4.341658 5.181254 -0.278610
0.0000 0.0000 0.5962 0.0000 0.0000 0.7812
0.015520 0.177946 0.194926 0.232302 0.072943 0.117888 0.121789 -0.079459 0.000547 -0.024917 0.095596 -0.025266 -0.101340 -0.069653 0.037547 -0.052683 0.196158 0.048513 0.051621 -0.063842 -0.117866 0.027278 -0.174111
Universitas Sumatera Utara
158 _NIAS--C _NISEL--C _BBARA--C _PALAS--C _PALUTA--C _LABURA--C _LABUSEL--C
-0.255246 -0.357290 -0.093581 -0.045472 -0.028100 0.039472 0.058780 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.985885 0.980239 0.019799 0.033320 321.0728 1.841452
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
8.615654 0.140842 -4.767880 -3.954861 174.6126 0.000000
Universitas Sumatera Utara
159 2. DINAMIS ESTIMASI ADL LAG : 1, FIXED EFFECT MODEL Persamaan Eviews : ipm? c ipm?(-1) dau? dau?(-1) dak? dak?(-1) pad? pad?(-1) dbh? dbh?(-1) bkp? bkp?(-1) Dependent Variable: IPM? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 01/22/15 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2010 2012 Included observations: 3 after adjustments Cross-sections included: 30 Total pool (balanced) observations: 90 Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C IPM?(-1) DAU? DAU?(-1) DAK? DAK?(-1) PAD? PAD?(-1) DBH? DBH?(-1) BKP? BKP?(-1) Fixed Effects (Cross) _MES--C _BINJ--C _TTINGGI--C _PSIAN--C _TJBALAI--C _PSIDEM--C _SIBOL--C _LANG--C _DSER--C _SERGAI--C _KAR--C _DAIRI--C _PAKB--C _ASAH--C _LAB--C _SIMAL--C _TOBAS--C _SAMOS--C _TAPUT--C _HUMHA--C
0.171361 0.980920 0.001634 0.000847 0.000796 -0.002842 -0.000896 -0.000533 -0.000291 -0.000621 0.000762 -0.000588
0.862014 0.104743 0.001954 0.000496 0.001990 0.001100 0.001042 0.000669 0.000210 0.000518 0.000427 0.000649
0.198791 9.365021 0.835962 1.707161 0.399889 -2.583194 -0.859961 -0.795675 -1.384299 -1.198534 1.783198 -0.905365
0.8432 0.0000 0.4072 0.0941 0.6910 0.0128 0.3940 0.4301 0.1725 0.2365 0.0807 0.3697
0.024147 -0.001068 0.003381 -0.002917 0.000111 -0.001234 -0.005170 -0.012332 0.000432 -0.006751 -0.001241 -0.000356 0.008560 0.001068 0.011388 -0.014597 -0.005051 0.000971 0.001339 -0.002980
Universitas Sumatera Utara
160 _TAPTE--C _TAPSE--C _MADIN--C _NIAS--C _NISEL--C _BBARA--C _PALAS--C _PALUTA--C _LABURA--C _LABUSEL--C
-0.007939 -0.000545 -0.010219 0.002919 0.006482 -0.002675 -0.001615 -0.001110 0.012018 0.004985 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat
0.998907 0.998015 0.006171 0.001866 357.5685 3.242044
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
8.628475 0.138510 -7.034856 -5.896054 1119.794 0.000000
Universitas Sumatera Utara