Indonesia Small Business Confidence Monitor HSBC Commercial Banking January 2011
SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR • Survey terbesar yang menggambarkan pandangan UKM (Usaha Kecil dan Menengah) secara global • Memberikan gambaran mengenai pandangan UKM di 21 negara : Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Cina, Malaysia, Singapura, Taiwan, Vietnam, Mesir, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Perancis, Turki, UK, Kanada, Amerika Serikat, Argentina, Brazil, Meksiko and Panama • Melibatkan 6.389 UKM; yang diwawancarai oleh TNS, perusahaan riset independen • Indeks memperlihatkan pergerakan tingkat optimisme bisnis dari waktu ke waktu • Optimisme ini dilihat dari pandangan UKM terhadap prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi dan rencana pengembangan bisnis. • Metode perhitungan indeks : ¾ (% respons positif - % respons negatif) + 100 ¾ Rata – rata hasil dari 3 pertanyaan ¾ Indeks dimulai dari 0 (semua negatif) hingga 200 (semua positif), dengan 100 sebagai indeks netral © The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
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INDEKS KEPERCAYAAN
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
INDEKS KEPERCAYAAN UKM INDONESIA UKM di Indonesia menunjukan optimisme dan kepercayaan bahwa perekonomian Indonesia akan bertumbuh secara positif Pada waktu Sesudah
Sebelum krisis
140 Positive
118
116
120 Neutral
97
100
106
108
4Q09
2Q10
101 93
Negative 80
60
40 4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q10
Indonesia © The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
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INDONESIA SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR Insert commentary
140 127 122
Positive
120
118
116
97
125 116
108 Neutral 100
121
106
108
4Q09
2Q10
101 93 91
80 Negative
60
40 4Q07
2Q08
4Q08 Indonesia
2Q09
4Q10
Asia
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Parameter – tingkat kepercayaan 68% UKM berpandangan bahwa ekonomi akan bertumbuh atau setidaknya berada pada level yang sama, 47% UKM berencana untuk menambah Capex dan 95% dari UKM akan menambah tenaga kerja atau setidaknya mempertahankan tenaga kerja yang ada.
Recruitment plan
5
75
20
(-2)
(+1)
(+1) 4Q10
Capex
Economic outlook
16
37
(-1)
(-12)
(perubahan
47
dari 2Q10) (+13)
32
34
34
(+1)
(-8)
(+8)
Menurun
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Berada di tingkat yang sama
Meningkat
UKM dan Bisnis Internasional
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UKM INDONESIA (INTERNATIONAL) – AKTIVITAS PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL Import masih mendominasi aktivitas bisnis perdagangan internasional UKM Indonesia
73%
Importing
43%
Exporting
International brokerage or foreign exchange activities
5%
Marketing products / services through international subsidiaries or offices
3%
Manufacturing / Production in foreign countries
3%
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=40 , who are doing business internationally Source: Q71. Which of the following activities is your international business involved in?
UKM INDONESIA – KEINGINANAN UNTUK MELAKUKAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL Dalam 2 tahun kedepan, jumlah UKM indonesia yang melakukan perdagangan internasional akan meningkat menjadi 21% Dalam 2 tahun ke depan
Sekarang International 13%
International 21%
Noninternational 87%
Noninternational 79%
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: Q88. Is your company involved in any cross-border trade or international business activities? This could include importing, exporting, foreign exchange transactions, offshoring services, conducting business through overseas subsidiaries, offices or any other international financial activity for your business. Q89. Which of the following best describes your intention for conducting international business activities in the next 2 years?
RENCANA MELAKUKAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DALAM 2 TAHUN KEDEPAN 48% UKM yang sudah melakukan bisnis secara internasional berkeinginan untuk mengembangkan usaha yang ada sekarang. Hal ini menunjukan bahwa potensi perdanganan internasional masih sangat terbuka. Sedangkan untuk SME yang melakukan bisnis domestik, 9% berencana untuk mengembangkan bisnis perdangangan internasional.
3% Continue existing activities 7%
Will Expand 6%
INTERNATIONAL SME
Will expand
48% 50%
Go international 8%
Continue existing activity
No plans
9% DOMESTIC SME
Go international
No plan for international business 79%
No plans
91%
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UKM INDONESIA − HAMBATAN DALAM MELAKUKAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL Kendala utama yang di hadapi oleh para UKM dalam melakukan perdagangan internasional adalah tidak tersedianya kredit/pembiayaan (51%). Selanjutnya diikuti oleh biaya tinggi (29%) dan kerumitan peraturan dan hukum (25%). Availability of financing
51%
High cost of doing business internationally
29%
Local regulations and legal complexities
25%
Lack of knowledge (eg taxation, regulations) / contacts / experience of overseas markets
24%
Availability of skilled labour
22%
Competition in overseas markets
20%
More restrictive international trade policies
19%
Concern about dealing in foreign currencies
18%
Complexity of certain international markets, eg tax, foreign currency controls
15%
Reliability of overseas partners
12%
Lack of demand for your company’s goods / services in overseas markets Difficulty in maintaining strong customer and vendor relations at a distance Sovereign (country) risk
11% 9% 3%
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: Q74. What are your greatest concerns about doing business internationally? Please choose up to 3.
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UKM INDONESIA − INFORMASI YANG DIBUTUHKAN UNTUK PENGEMBANGAN USAHA MENUJU INTERNASIONALISASI Bagaimana mendapatkan partner bisnis di luar negeri merupakan informasi yang paling di butuhkan oleh para UKM Indonesia, diikuti dengan bagaimana cara untuk menjangkau pelanggan di luar serta resiko forex dan peraturan (30%). Ways to reach out to / find overseas business partners
47%
Ways to reach out to customers overseas
46%
Foreign exchange risk and regulations
30%
Local government regulations for international businesses
28%
Overseas government regulations for international businesses
25%
Legal advice
23%
Associated tax implications
19%
Financing options
19% 18%
Existing or potential competition in overseas markets Socio-cultural-political environment of the overseas markets
12%
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: Q90. If you were to expand your business internationally, what kind of information would help you do this? Please choose up to 3.
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PERTANYAAN KHUSUS - INDONESIA
UKM INDONESIA – DAMPAK ACFTA TERHADAP BISNIS Hanya 15% dari UKM Indonesia yang merasa ACTFA sangat berdampak terhadap bisnis mereka, sedangkan 55% menyatakan tidak berdampak sama sekali. Hal ini menunjukan persentase UKM Indonesia yang melakukan perdagangan internasional terutama dengan China masih sangat kecil.
15%
Significantly impacts your business. You need to promptly review your business and make necessary adjustments.
55% 29%
Moderately impacts your business. Some review and adjustment should be made in the next 2 to 3 years to sustain your business in the long run. No impact on your business at all. You are still running your business as it is.
1. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t Know / Refused” responses. © The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: Q111. Which of the following statements best describe the impact of ACFTA i.e. Asean China Free Trade Agreement on your business?
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UKM INDONESIA – LAYANAN PERBANKAN DARI INTERNASIONAL BANK Para UKM Indonesia menyatakan bahwa akses terhadap pembiayaan merupakan layanan yang mereka butuhkan dari international bank (51%), diikuti oleh bantuan/layanan untuk mendapatkan mitra usaha di luar negeri (42%), serta layanan Trade (34%). Access to short term financing / working capital / loan
51%
Assistance / help to find overseas business partners
42%
Trade services
34%
Comprehensive online banking service
29%
Product / service which can minimise risk of doing international trade
28%
Foreign exchange services
25%
One stop shop for deposit, insurance, loans, etc.
25%
Education on international trade: risks and risks mitigant.
22% 18%
International remittances
16%
Assistance in opening account overseas Islamic banking
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: Q112. What are the top three services your company needs most from an international bank?
5%
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KESIMPULAN • Indeks kepercayaan UKM Indonesia terus meningkat. • Dalam 2 tahun ke depan, jumlah UKM Indonesia yang melakukan perdangangan internasional akan meningkat menjadi 21%. • Pembiayaan merupakan kendala terbesar bagi para UKM untuk melakukan perdagangan internasional. • Informasi bagaimana mendapatkan mitra bisnis di luar, serta mendapatkan pelanggan di luar merupakan informasi yang sangat dibutuhkan bagi UKM Indonesia jika UKM ingin memperluas usaha mereka ke luar negeri. • Bank dapat berperan untuk membantu UKM melakukan perdagangan internasional, dengan memberikan pembiayaan, bantuan untuk mempertermukan mitra bisnis dari luar serta menyediakan berbagai layanan trade.
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Appendix
PROFIL RESPONDEN Local Vs MNC
Employee Size
MNC 1%
50+ 15% 1-4 30%
10-49 33%
Head Office Vs Branch** 5-9 23%
Based in Same Country 99%
**Note: Data not shown due to very small base (n<10)
Branch 100% 1. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t Know / Refused” responses. © The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Emp. Size & Local Vs MNC-Total Indonesia sample n=300 Head Office Vs Branch- Base of Companies that are MNC with office overseas (Code 2 in QS6) n=2**; Source: S5; S6; S7
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PROFIL RESPONDEN JENIS PEKERJAAN Indonesia Company Owner
49%
Marketing Manager / Director
16%
Director of Finance / Purchasing
10%
Account Manager / Accountant / Senior Accountant
8%
HR Manager / Director
7%
Vice President / Vice Chief
4%
Brand Manager / Director
2%
Operation Manager / General Manager of Operations
2%
Managerial
1%
1. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t Know / Refused” responses. © The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: S2
+ Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown in this slide
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PROFIL RESPONDEN IndustrI Indonesia Wholesale / Retail
58%
Transportation / Storage / Communications
13%
Manufacturing
10%
Restaurant / Hotels
7%
Import / Export Trades (Trading)
6%
Finance / Insurance / Real estates / Business services
5%
Construction
1%
+ Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown in this slide © The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: S3
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PROFIL RESPONDEN TOTAL PENJUALAN PERTAHUN - 2010 Indonesia US$100,000 or below
46%
Over US$100,000 to 200,000
15%
Over US$200,000 to 300,000
7%
Over US$300,000 to 400,000
7%
Over US$400,000 to 500,000
10%
Over US$500,000 to 1 million
7%
Over US$1 million to 3 million
4%
Over US$3 million to 5 million
2%
Over US$5 million to 8million
0%
Over US$8 million to 10 million
2%
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Base: Indonesia sample n=300 Source: S4
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DEFENISI UKM
Area
Annual sales turnover
Sample size
Hong Kong
< US$30m
300
India
< US$10m
360
Indonesia
< US$10m
300
Mainland China
< US$30m
302
Malaysia
< US$10m
300
Singapore
< US$30m
300
Taiwan
< US$30m
302
US$100,000-10m
300
Egypt
< US$20m
300
Qatar
< US$20m
300
UAE
< US$30m
314
Saudi Arabia
< US$30m
300
France
< US$30m
300
Turkey
< US$10m
300
UK
< US$50m
311
Canada
< US$30m
300
US*
< US$30m
300
Argentina
< US$10m
300
Brazil
< US$10m
300
Mexico
< US$8m
300
Panama
< US$10m
300
Vietnam
© The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited *This number does not include booster sample for California
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