HSBC Trade Confidence Index Indonesia September 2010
HSBC Trade and Supply Chain 1
HSBC Trade Confidence Index – September 2010 Survey ini merupakan survey global keempat yang dilakukan oleh HSBC Trade and Supply Chain terhadap usaha kecil dan menegah yang melalukan perdagangan internasional Dilakukan oleh perusahaan independen TNS (Taylor Nelson Sofres) terhadap 5.124 eksportir dan importir di Australia, India, Hong Kong, China, Singapura, Uni Emirat Arab, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Inggris, Amerika Serikat, Brasil, Kanada, Perancis, Jerman, Meksiko, dan Arab Saudi Survey dilakukan dari tanggal 19 Juli sampai 1 September 2010 Mengukur sentimen dan pandangan/ekspektasi terhadap aktivitas perdagangan internasional dan pertumbuhan bisnis dalam 6 bulan mendatang
2
Small and medium business definitions for survey Area
Geographical coverage
Sample size
Annual turnover
Australia
New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory
300
A$30m-200m
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
300
HK$25m-2bn
India
Mumbai, Chennai, New Delhi, Kolkata Bangalore, Hyderabad
315
RS300m-2bn
Mainland China
Nationwide
301
RMB500m-2bn
Singapore
Singapore
300
S$15m-600m
UAE
Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah
304
US$10m-75m
Vietnam
Ho Chi Minh, Hanoi
300
Indonesia
Jakarta, Surabaya
300
US$250,000-100m
Malaysia
304
< RM150m
UK
Kuala Lumpur, Petaling Jaya, PenangGeorgetown, Johore Bahru, Kuching, Kota Kinabalu Nationwide
300
GBP £15m - 250m
USA
Nationwide
300
USD$20m to $250m
Brazil
Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro
300
BRL5m-100m
Canada
Nationwide
300
US $20m – 250m
Germany
Nationwide
300
US $20m – 250m
France
Nationwide
300
US $20m – 250m
Mexico
Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey
300
US $5m – 60m
KSA
Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam
300
US $10m – 75m
3
Temuan Global
HSBC Trade Confidence Index Key index questions ¾
Hal-hal berikut ini merupakan parameter dalam perhitungan indeks HSBC Trade Confidence Monitor (prediksi enam bulan) : – Prediksi volume ekspor/impor – Prediksi risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli – Prediksi risiko supplier tidak memenuhi perjanjian perdagangan – Prediksi terhadap kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan – Prediksi terhadap akses kepada pembiayaan perdagangan internasional – Prediksi terhadap dampak nilai tukar – Prediksi terhadap dampak dari regulasi pemerintah
¾
Perhitungan indeks : – (% respon positif - % respon negatif) + 100 – Rata – rata hasil dari 7 pertanyaan – Rentang nilai dari 0 (tingkat keyakinan terendah) hingga 200 (tingkat keyakinan tertinggi). Nilai tengahnya adalah 100 – Semua indeks tidak tertimbang
¾
Harap diperhatikan dalam membandingkan hasil dengan gelombang sebelumnya : – Sejak periode 1H10 dan seterusnya kerangka acuan waktunya diubah menjadi 6 bulan sedangkan gelombang sebelumnya yang menggunakan acuan waktu 3 bulan. 5
HSBC Trade Confidence Index – Ulasan Global ¾ Secara umum, semua negara yang disurvei berpandangan positif terhadap prospek perdagangan internasional ¾ India, UAE, Indonesia dan Mexico adalah negara-negara yang mempunyai tingkat kepercayaan tertinggi ¾ Emerging market cenderung memiliki tingkat kepercayaan lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan negara maju ¾ Tingkat kepercayaan pengusaha di China dan Vietnam merosot jika dibandingkan dengan semester 1, 2010 200
2H10 180 160 140
Positiv
140
e
120
Neutral
100
106
106
107
108
109
USA
UK
110
110
111
113
114
118
122
122
124
124
125 116
80
Negativ
60
e
40 20 0 HK
France Germany
Australia Canada
China SingaporeMalaysia
Saudi Vietnam Brazil Indonesia Mexico Arabia
UAE
India
Overall Global Index
Note: (1) The Overall Global Index is the unweighted average of the 17 markets listed above
6
Temuan Indonesia
HSBC Trade Confidence Index – Overview Trade Confidence Index di Indonesia ada pada level positif, sedikit turun dari semester 1/2010, namun masih diatas hasil survey pada semester 2/2009. 140 128 124 120
Positive 120
Neutral 100
Negative 80
60 2H09
1H10
2H10
8
Prediksi terhadap volume perdagangan % dari responden di Indonesia mempunyai pandangan bahwa volume perdagangan akan stabil atau meningk 51% dari responden berpandangan bahwa volume perdagangan akan meningkat.
42 35
17
%
2H09
5
1H1 0
39
36
32
15
13 5
34
15 4
2
2H10
Decrease significantly
2H09
1H10
2H10
Decrease slightly
2H09
1H10
2H10
Maintain same level
2H09
1H10
Increase slightly
2H10
2H09
6
1H10
2H10
Increase significantly
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. 9 Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q1. How do you expect the volume of your import, export business to change in the next 6 months? Do you expect the volume of your import, export business to increase significantly, increase slightly, maintain the same level, decrease slightly or decrease significantly?
Prediksi risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli Lebih dari 50% responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli akan stabil. Hanya 16% dari responden yang berpandangan bahwa “buyer default/non payment” akan meningkat. 64
61 53
30 26 19 14 6 2
%
2H09
2
1H1 0
8
1
2H10
Decrease significantly
2
2
1H10
2H10
-
2H09
1H10
2H10
Decrease slightly
2H09
1H10
2H10
Maintain same level
2H09
1H10
2H10
Increase slightly
2H09
Increase significantly
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: Indonesia n=139, excluding pure importers (only import raw materials or semi-finished/ finished goods; does not involve in any exports activities, not a commodity trading company, and not an import or export broker/ wholesaler). Source: Q2A. How do you expect the risk of your buyers defaulting on payment to change in the next 6 months?
10
Strategi untuk mengatasi risiko gagal bayar Lebih dari 50% responden di Indonesia mempunyai strategi untuk meminta pembayaran dimuka atau memberi persyaratan pembayaran yang lebih fleksibel untuk mengatasi risiko gagal bayar % dari pembeli. 27 (+4)
Pembayaran dimuka
23 (+8)
Persyaratan pembayaran yang lebih fleksibel
14 (+6)
Perketat syarat pembayaran / durasi ^Meningkatkan penggunaan pembiayaan perdagangan via bank Asuransi kredit ekspor (melalui lembaga keuangan Anda) Kurangi bisnis dengan pembeli jenis ini
Asuransi kredit ekspor (didukung dengan skema pemerintah) Terima sedikit pesanan untuk mengurangi risiko per transaksi
2H10 (Chang e from 1H10)
14 (/ ) 9 (+1) 9 (-22) 5 (/ ) 5 (-3) *Caution with low base n<30
Notes: ^ Includes documentary credit. Bills for collection, export finance/receivables finance (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: Indonesia n=22* , only those who answered ‘increase significantly’ or ‘increase slightly’ in Q2A Source: Q2B. What strategies, if any do you intend to put in place over the coming 6 months to overcome non-payment risk from buyers? Multiple mentions.
11
Prediksi risiko supplier tidak memenuhi perjanjian perdagangan Sepertiga dari responden di Indonesia mempunyai pandangan positif bahwa pelanggaran perjanjian perdagangan oleh supplier akan berkurang
72
71 60
27 23 12
10
%
1
1
2
2H0 9
1H1 0
2H10
Decrease significantly
8 4
2H09
1H10
2H10
Decrease slightly
2H0 9
1H1 0
2H10
Maintain same level
2H09
1H10
1
2H10
Increase slightly
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q3A. How do you expect the risk of suppliers not honouring agreed trade arrangements to change in the next 6 months?
2H09
1
2
1H10
2H10
Increase significantly
12
Alasan-alasan meningkatnya risiko supplier tidak memenuhi syarat perjanjian perdagangan
% 27 (+13)
Kondisi keuangan supplier memburuk
Resesi global, bisnis menjadi tidak stabil
23 (-6)
Berkurangnya ketersediaan bahan baku
23 (+9)
Tidak bersedia menerima pembayaran yang fleksibel, seperti kredit dan syarat pembayaran Menurunnya kinerja pengiriman dari supplier Kapasitas logistik dan transportasi yang tidak memadai
2H10 (Chang e from 1H10)
20 (-1)
10 (+3)
3 (-11)
, only those who answered ‘increase significantly’ or ‘increase slightly’ in Q3A. Base: Indonesia n=30 Source: Q3B. Why do you expect the risks of suppliers not honouring agreed trade arrangements to increase significantly/ increase slightly? Multiple mentions.
13
Alasan-alasan menurunnya risiko supplier tidak memenuhi syarat perjanjian perdagangan
% 30 (-3)
Kondisi keuangan supplier anda yang membaik
Meningkatnya ketersediaan bahan baku
24 (+10)
bersedia menerima pembayaran yang fleksibel seperti kredit dan syarat pembayaran Kapasitas logistik dan transportasi yang memadai
Membaiknya kinerja pengiriman dari supplier
2H10 (Chang e from 1H10)
21 (-19)
13 (+1)
10 (+6)
Tidak tahu / menolak 1 (/)
Note: (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: Indonesia n=89, only those who answered ‘decrease significantly’ or ‘decrease slightly’ in Q3A. Source: Q3C. Why do you expect the risks of suppliers not honouring agreed trade arrangements to decrease significantly/ decrease slightly? Multiple mentions.
14
Prediksi terhadap kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan Lebih dari 60% responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan akan meningkat. Bank merupakan salah satu sarana untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan internasional Sumber pemenuhan kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan 2H10 internasional 54 43
40
(1H10)
39
29 28 9 %
2
1
1
7
25
7
6
Self-funded 34% (33%)
Your bank(s) 26 (21%)
10
2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10
Decrease significantly
Decrease slightly
Maintain same level
Increase slightly
Increase significantly
Payment terms from suppliers 11% (13%)
Through buyer support 28% (33% )
+Figures with less than 1% mentions are not Note (1): For “Outlook on the need for trade finance”, figures may not add up to 100% shown. due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Note (2): For “Channels to meet future trade financing obligations”, figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Base: Indonesia n=300 15decrease Source: “Outlook on the need for trade finance” - Q4. In the next six months, do you expect your need for trade finance to increase significantly, increase slightly, maintain the same level, slightly or decrease significantly? Channels to meet future trade financing obligations” - Q5B. Which of the following do you expect to be the main source to meet your future trade financing obligations?
Prediksi terhadap akses kepada pembiayaan perdagangan internasional Hampir 50% dari responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa akses kepada pembiayaan perdagangan internasional akan meningkat.
48 44
43 38
9
%
1
1
1
2H09
1H1 0
2H10
Decrease significantly
2H09
6
8
1H10
2H10
Decrease slightly
2H09
1H10
2H10
Maintain same level
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q5A. In the next six months, how do you expect your capacity to access trade finance to change?
40
2H09
38
1H10
Increase slightly
2H10
5
7
2H09
1H10
10
2H10
Increase significantly
16
Prediksi terhadap dampak nilai tukar Walaupun fluktuasi nilai tukar merupakan kendala utama bagi perkembangan usaha berbasis ekspor/impor di Indonesia, 31% dari responden yang berpandangan bahwa nilai tukar akan berdampak positif (favorable) terhadap mereka. 55% dari responden berpandangan bahwa nilai tukar tidak akan berdampak bagi mereka. 55
56
55
38 31
12
10
%
1
1
1
2H09
1H1 0
2H10
Very unfavourable
30
4
2H09
1H10
2H10
Unfavourable
2H09
1H10
2H10
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q7. How would you expect exchange rates to impact your import, export business in the next 6 months?
2H09
1H10
2H10
Favourable
1
1
1
2H09
1H10
2H10
Very favourable
17
Prediksi terhadap dampak dari regulasi pemerintah Hanya 12% dari responden yang berpandangan bahwa regulasi pemerintah akan memberikan dampak positif bagi kegiatan perdagangan yang mereka lakukan.
63 59
62
24 20
17
17
12
%
1
1
1
2H09
1H1 0
2H10
Very unfavourable
2H09
12
1H10
2H10
Unfavourable
2H09
1H10
2H10
Neither favourable nor unfavourable
2H09
1H10
2H10
Favourable
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q8. How would you expect government trade regulations to impact your import, export business in the next 6 months?
2
1
0
2H09
1H10
2H10
Very favourable
18
Kendala utama dalam pertumbuhan bisnis impor/ekspor Fluktuasi nilai tukar serta regulasi perdagangan merupakan kendala utama dalam pertumbuhan bisnis impor/ekspor. %
46 (-1)
Fluktuasi nilai tukar
44 (+16)
Regulasi perdagangan
29 (+5)
Kekurangan permintaan terhadap produk
21 (+4)
Minimnya margin / laba
19 (-11)
Kenaikan suku bunga
18 (+6)
Biaya pokok seperti shipping, logistik, dan gudang Supplier melanggar perjanjian perdagangan Pembeli gagal bayar
Tidak ada kendala
11 (+4) 11 (0)
Ketersediaan kredit / likuiditas Lainnya
2H10 (Chang e from 1H10)
11 (-10)
1 (/ ) 27 (-6)
+Figures with less than 1% mentions are not Note: shown. (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. 19 Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q10. Over the next six months, what do you see as the top three barriers to growing your import, export business? Up to three mentions allowed
Negara/kawasan tujuan perdagangan internasional China dan Asia Tenggara merupakan negara/kawasan tujuan utama perdagangan internasional. %
44 (-7)
Greater China
41 (+1)
Asia Tenggara
22 (-3)
USA / Canada
19 (+4)
Asia lainnya
17 (+4)
Eropa Tengah/Timur (tanpa Jerman)
16 (-1)
Eropa Barat (tanpa UK) Timur Tengah
9 (+1)
Australia / New Zealand
9 (-5)
Amerika Latin
6 (+3)
Jerman
6 (-3)
Afrika UK Lainnya
Notes: (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Greater China includes Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: S3B. Which of the following regions are you trading with? Multiple mentions.
2H10 (Chang e from 1H10)
2 (-3) 1 (-5) 1 (/ ) +Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown.
20
Negara/kawasan yang berpotensi menjadi tujuan perdagangan internasional dalam 6 bulan mendatang Negara/kawasan Asia Tenggara dan China dipandang sebagai kawasan yang berpotensi menjadi tujuan perdagangan internasional dalam 6 bulan ke depan % Asia Tenggara
27 (+4)
Greater China
27 (-13)
Eropa Timur/Tengah (tanpa Jerman) Asia lainnya USA / Canada Australia / New Zealand
8 (+3) 6 (-1) 5 (0) 5 (+1)
Timur Tengah
4 (-4)
Eropa Barat (tanpa UK)
3 (+1)
Amerika Latin
3 (+2)
Jerman
3 (0)
Afrika
1 (-1)
Tidak tahu / menolak
2H10 (Chang e from 1H10)
5 (+5)
Notes: Greater China includes Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q9. Over the next six months, which of these regions do you see as having the best opportunity for your business growth?
+Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown.
21
Prediksi perekonomian global
Lebih dari 60% responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa perekonomian global akan bertumbuh.
55
52 44
30
33
30 17
9
%
1
0
-
2H09
1H1 0
2H10
Decline significantly
2H09
5
7
1H10
2H10
Decline slightly
9 4
2H09
1H10
2H10
Maintain same level
2H09
1H10
Grow slightly
Note: Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding and the exclusion of “Don’t know/Refused” responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q13. How do you expect the global economy, to change in the next 6 months? Do you expect the global economy to…?
2H10
2H09
1H10
2H10
Grow significantly
22
Mata uang untuk trade settlement hingga 6 bulan mendatang Dollar AS masih merupakan mata uang utama dalam transaksi perdagangan internasional. % US Dollar
Indonesian Rupiah
19
70
17
Euros 4
28
45
26
22
Singaporean Dollar 3 14
89
17
Renminbi, or Chinese Yuan 2 8 10
Japanese Yen 14 5
Australian Dollar 13 4 Hong Kong Dollar 12 3
Primary currency Secondary currencies All currencies
+Figures with less than 2% mentions are not shown. Note: Only top 10 currencies are shown Base: Indonesia n=300 23 Source: Q15. Which currency do you expect to be your main trade settlement currency in the next 6 months? Q16. Are there any other currencies you envisage using for trade transactions in the next 6 months?
HSBC Trade Confidence Index – Kesimpulan ¾ Negara-negara di emerging market mempunyai pandangan optimis terhadap kegiatan perdagangan internasional. Hasil ini konsisten dengan hasil survey terdahulu. ¾ Sentimen positif dari emerging market merupakan indikator penting bahwa perdagangan internasional merupakan salah satu penggerak dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global. ¾ Pengusaha di Indonesia mempunyai tingkat kepercayaan yang lebih tinggi dari pengusaha yang berada di kawasan Asia akan perdagangan internasional. ¾ Kegiatan perdagangan intra Asia sangat mendominasi kegiatan pengusaha Indonesia. ¾ China merupakan partner perdagangan terbesar bagi pengusaha Indonesia sekarang. Sedangkan dalam 6 bulan ke depan, selain China, kawasan Asia Tenggara merupakan kawasan tujuan yang dianggap menjanjikan bagi pengusaha Indonesia. ¾ Eksportir/importir Indonesia belum memaksimalkan peran Bank dalam membantu kegiatan perdagangan internasional.
24
Appendix Respondent Profile
Sample Breakdown Tables below shows the breakdown of interviews achieved on industry level
Industry Import / Export Trades (Trading)
21%
Manufacturing
9%
Wholesale / Retail
41 %
Construction
1%
Others
28 %
26
Trading Types
% Your business exports semifinished / finished goods You are an import or export broker / wholesaler
38
2
Your business imports semi-finished / finished goods
44
Your business imports raw materials Your business exports raw materials
27
8
+Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown.
27
Respondent Profile Job title and Employee size Job Title
Employee Size
% Head of Department Head of Sales
20
Chief Accountant
1 to 49
47
16
Import / Export Manager / Import / Export Unspecified
14
Owner / President
6
Director of Finance / Head of Purchasing
6
Manager / Assistant Manager
5
Managing Director / Deputy Managing Director
3
General Manager
2
Program Development Manager / Business Development Manager Sales / Marketing Manager / Marketing unspecified
%
22
50-99
16
22
100-249
250-499
5
2 2
Accounting / Finance Manager
2
CFO / CEO / COO
1
+Figures with less than 1% mentions are not shown.
500 or above
10
28
Respondent Profile Annual Sales Turnover - 2009
Indonesia
Over USD 250K to 20 million / Over IDR 2.4 billion to 190 billion
72%
Over USD 20 million to 40 million/ Over IDR 190 billion to 380 billion
17%
Over USD 40 million to 60 million / Over IDR 380 billion to 570 billion
8%
Over USD 60 million to 80 million / Over IDR 570 billion to 760 billion
2%
Over USD 80 million to 100 million / Over IDR 760 billion to 950 billion
1%
29
