Holdings op weg naar Tolkiens Grijze Havens? Finance Avenue 20 oktober 2012
Agenda Metamorfose in een historisch perspectief
Een sterk uitgedund bos
Lonken holdings naar de Grijze Havens ?
Druk op gunstig fiscaal regime Transparantie als competitief nadeel Risicoaversie domineert portefeuille Deal sourcing sterk bemoeilijkt Discount: goudmijn voor insiders !
De geruchtenmolen draait op volle toeren
2
De Grijze Havens lonken Onze exitkandidaten
19 oktober 2012
Metamorfose in een historisch perspectief Van Koloniale Holdings tot Buy-out fondsen
Evolutie in beeld
1920
4
19 oktober 2012
2012
Een sterk uitgedund bos • • • • • • • • • • •
Belgo-Katanga Union Minières du Haut Katanga Afrifina Almanij Cobepa GIB Ibel Mosane Berginvest Glaces de Moustier Glaces de Charlerloi
5
19 oktober 2012
• • • • • • • • • • •
Generale Maatschappij ECFC Gevaert Electrafina Obourg Mitiska NPM/CNP Auximines Moustier Nord-Sumatra Investissements Unibra
Lonken holdings naar de Grijze Havens ? Omgevingsvariabelen evolueerden negatief
Druk op gunstig fiscaal regime Definitief Belaste Inkomsten (DBI) • Recuperatie van belastingen op dividenden (95%) • Belastingverdragen met buitenland
Financieringsaftrek • Intrestaftrek voor schuldfinanciering (recuperatie overige 5%) • Notionele intrest voor financiering met eigen vermogen
Geen meerwaardebelasting • Geen belasting op meerwaarden (quid minwaarden ?)
Successieplanning • Geen belasting op overdracht van NV-aandelen
7
19 oktober 2012
Transparantie als competitief nadeel Invoering van IFRS • Omvangrijke, complexe boekhoudwetgeving • Consolidatie van dochtervennootschappen
FSMA regelgeving • Meldingsplicht van Insider Transacties • Closed periods en grijze zones
Euronext verplichting • Tussentijdse rapportering (kwartaalupdates) • Strikte communicatieplicht • Representatie vraagt managementtijd
De concurrentie kijkt mee !!
8
19 oktober 2012
Risicoaversie domineert portefeuille Structureel hoge discount ? • Gebrek aan substantiële Private Equity belangen • Hogere liquiditeitsvereiste reduceert appetijt • Juweeltjes werden reeds verkocht
Cashcomponent van de portefeuille stijgt • Herinvestering bemoeilijkt door Private Equity • Monetaire politiek weegt op intrestopbrengsten • Nauwe regionale focus verkleint visvijver
Evolutie naar veredelde familiebedrijven • Investeringsportefeuille gericht op cash flows • Risicoaversie ter bescherming van patrimonium • Management voor de familie ipv aandeelhouders
9
19 oktober 2012
Deal sourcing sterk bemoeilijkt Hoe het ooit was: • Verankering van overheidsparticipaties • Verankering en cultivering van familiale netwerken
Hoe het vandaag is: • • • • • •
10
Gebrek aan opvolging knipt familiale band door Schuldgefinancierde fondsen Industriële spelers: sterke balansen & synergiepotentieel “The winner takes it all” in veilingen Specialisatie: professionalisme en brede investeringsteams Fund-of-fund benadering: externe fondsen als activaklasse
19 oktober 2012
Holding discount structureel hoog ? Oververkocht
50%
50%
45%
45%
40%
40%
35%
35%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10% 01
02
03
04
05
06
Holding discount (-9YR)
Overkocht
11
19 oktober 2012
07
08
09
10
Average holding discount
11
12
Verdamping van alpha
15% 1%
4%
6%
20%
17%
24%
30% 29%
27% 16%
28% 25%
38%
40%
35%
49%
51%
60%
-2%
-11% -11%
-9% -5%
-7%
-3% -5%
0%
-36%
-24% -22%
-20%
-44%
-40%
-60% 99.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
BEL20 total return index
12
19 oktober 2012
06
07
08
Sector total return
09
10
11
12(E)
Discount: goudmijn voor insiders De paradox van de discount • Bedrijven zijn misnoegd over de hoge discount, maar … ¬ Hoe hoger de discount, hoe interessanter aandeleninkoop ¬ Hoe meer ingekocht wordt, hoe lager de free float ¬ Hoe lager de free float, hoe hoger de discount
Aandeleninkoop ipv dividendstijging • • • • •
Onmiddellijk rendement Fiscaalvriendelijk Positief effect op ROE en NAV Maar geen structurele impact op de hoogte van de discount Geleidelijke toename van familiaal belang (zonder cash) ¬ Brederode, Sofina, Henex, NPM/CNP
13
19 oktober 2012
De geruchtenmolen draait op volle toeren Maar nieuw bloed blijft uit
De Grijze Havens lonken Het nut van een beursnotering is al langer onduidelijk voor holdings. Een blik op het verleden leert ons dat dit een gradueel proces, eerder dan een “nieuw nieuw” is We verwachten dat het “holdingaanbod” verder zal dalen naarmate families hun controle willen versterken. Dit proces biedt opportuniteiten voor zowel lange termijn als opportunistische beleggers.
15
19 oktober 2012
Onze exitkandidaten Brederode
: cash
• Actief gebruik van een inkoopprogramma • Reeds Luxemburgse/Nederlandse controle
Henex
: papier
• Bundeling van de familiale belangen in sofina • Geen economische meerwaarde
Bois Sauvage
: cash
• Slotakkoord van het familiebedrijf Paquot • ECFC en Fingaren trekken belang op van 41,3% tot 47,6% op 3 okt.
Punch/Xeikon
: papier
• Holding fuseert activa en schulden met Xeikon • Terugkeer van Xeikon naar Euronext Brussel ?
16
19 oktober 2012
Defensieve selectie
17
19 oktober 2012
Goede huisvader aandelen Diversificatie • Focus op opportuniteiten eerder dan op sectoren • Toegang tot Private Equity deals • Toelaten van indirecte financiële hefbomen
Gespecialiseerd management • Flexibiliteit m.b.t. allocatie kapitaal • Gebruik van sectorspecialisten om bedrijven te leiden
Lage gemiddelde kostenstructuur • Gem. fonds manager: 1.25% - 1.75% (vaste kost, excl. exit) • Gem. holding kost: 0.25% - 0.75% (rel. tov NAV)
Voorspelbare dividend groei
18
19 oktober 2012
Historisch rendement als leidraad Pargesa
16.2%
Ackermans
15.6%
Henex
14.4%
Sofina
14.0%
GBL
13.4%
Bois Sauvage
13.2%
Luxempart
13.1%
Tubize
12.9%
NPM
12.5%
Texaf
11.8%
Auximines
11.6%
Brederode
11.5%
Solvac
11.1%
Gimv
8.9%
BEL20 index
7.7%
Bond index
6.9%
Quest for Growth
6.2%
BIP
1.9%
KBC Ancora
1.7%
Punch
1.1%
KBC Biotech
-12.8%
RHJI
-25%
19
19 oktober 2012
-20.5%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Stabiel dividendbeleid als buffer 6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0% 3.7% 3.5%
3.6% 3.4%
3.4%
3.3% 3.0%
3.7%
3.6%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
3.3%
3.2%
2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%
1.5% 01
02
03
04
05
06
Average regular dvd yield (sector)
20
19 oktober 2012
07
08
09
Belgium BEL-20
10
11
12(E)
Euronext 100
13(E)
14(E)
Aggressieve selectie
21
19 oktober 2012
Thema’s voor de toekomst Strategische focus op groei • Internationalisatie van onderliggende activiteiten • Gefinancierd vanuit sterke, schuldenvrije balansen • Bouwen van bedrijven ipv snel rendement
Cashoverschotten blijven Afbouw van schuldfinanciering • Industriële spelers winnen terug terrein op Private Equity • langere investeringscycli door buy-and-build model • Focus op groeilanden en partnerships
Secondaries zonder IPO venster: bedreiging
22
19 oktober 2012
23
19 oktober 2012
Annex 1: sectoroverzicht Company
Ackermans KBC Ancora BIP Invest Partners Bois Sauvage Brederode GBL Gimv HAL Trust Heineken Holding Henex Kardan Luxempart Pargesa Punch International Quest for Growth RHJI Sofina Solvac Texaf Tubize
Average - Average (mono holdings) - Average (excl. mono holdings)
24
19 oktober 2012
Last price
Adjusted equity value
Current discount
Target equity value
Target discount
Target price
Upside potential
Rating
63.52 8.32 51.60 190.00 22.68 58.25 38.17 89.51 39.89 48.00 0.79 24.00 65.55 2.77 5.61 3.82 65.41 100.00 19.55 34.50
80.53 12.33 87.23 277.54 35.37 82.31 41.33 129.13 48.65 57.95 2.27 37.94 90.54 3.80 8.88 6.53 107.64 153.28 33.02 60.81
21.1% 32.5% 40.8% 31.5% 35.9% 29.3% 7.6% 30.7% 18.0% 17.2% 65.4% 36.7% 27.5% 27.1% 36.9% 41.5% 39.2% 34.8% 40.8% 43.8%
81.40 12.33 90.50 284.28 35.71 83.76 42.03 124.97 57.00 62.27 2.21 38.03 91.93 3.80 8.88 6.53 110.16 168.58 33.02 56.66
22.0% 32.5% 43.0% 33.2% 36.5% 30.5% 9.2% 28.4% 30.0% 22.9% 64.5% 36.9% 28.6% 27.1% 36.9% 41.5% 40.6% 40.7% 40.8% 39.6%
70.00
10.2%
65.00 180.00 25.00 55.00 35.50 100.00 48.50 48.00 1.00 26.00 65.00 2.75 6.00 5.60 75.00 110.00 24.80 40.00
26.0% -5.3% 10.2% -5.6% -7.0% 11.7% 21.6% 0.0% 27.4% 8.3% -0.8% -0.7% 7.0% 46.6% 14.7% 10.0% 26.9% 15.9%
BUY ACCUMULATE HOLD BUY HOLD HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY HOLD BUY ACCUMULATE HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY BUY BUY HOLD ACCUMULATE BUY
32.9% 32.3% 33.1%
34.3% 35.7% 33.9%
Annex 2: Ackermans Portfolio
BB ticker
Last price
% held (or # shs)
Unl. Unl. Unl. Unl.
50.00% 45.00% 100.00% 75.00%
Unl.
78.75%
Contracting DEME Rent-A-Port Van Laere NMP / SNTC Private Banking Finaxis Bank Delen Bank J. Van Breda & Co BDM/BtB
Energy & Materials Sipef Henschel Max Green Sagar Cements Oriental Quarries & Mines
32.03% 29.05% 0.33% 1.65% 0.99%
862.94 782.76 9.00 44.38 26.80
41.93% 41.57% 27.61% 13.95% 0.36%
1,129.71 1,119.94 744.00 375.94 9.77
8.49% 5.98% 1.78% 0.73%
228.73 161.01 47.95 19.77
Share price KBC Sec est. Cpy data
10.26% 8.66% 1.21% 7.45% 1.60% 1.13% 0.46% 0.01%
276.55 233.35 32.73 200.62 43.21 30.56 12.33 0.31
Unl. Unl. Unl.
100.00% 41.14% 100.00%
KBC Sec est. KBC Sec est. KBC Sec est.
Unl.
74.00%
KBC Sec est. KBC Sec est. KBC Sec est.
FLO FP
€ 3.32 Unl.
50.00% 23.66% 50.00%
SIP BB
€ 58.85 Unl. Unl. € 2.93
26.70% 50.00% 18.90% 15.65% 50.00%
Share price KBC Sec est. KBC Sec est. Share price KBC Sec est.
6.45% 5.22% 0.36% 0.41% 0.31% 0.15%
173.67 140.61 9.60 10.99 8.32 4.15
avg. € 63.52 Unl.
0.96% 291,798 12.00%
Share price Share price KBC Sec est.
1.13% 0.17% 0.69% 0.28%
30.58 4.47 18.54 7.57
100.29% -0.29% 100.00%
2,702.18 -7.76 2,694.42
1.0% 0.1%
33,496,904 321,500 36,000 33,460,904
SGC IN
Number of shares (outstanding) Treasury shares (for remuneration purposes, resale, collateral,...) Treasury shares (available for cancellation) Number of shares (for per share calculation) Ackermans last price Adjusted equity value p.s. Current discount
63.52 80.52 21.12% Sipef
71.00
Target equity value Target equity value p.s. Discount to target equity value
19 oktober 2012
est. est. est. est.
KBC Sec KBC Sec KBC Sec KBC Sec
50.00%
Portfolio Net cash Adjusted equity value
25
Value (€ m)
Unl.
Other Treasury shares (option schemes) Belfimas Koffie Rombouts
Target prices
% NAV
KBC Sec est. KBC Sec est. Book value
Real Estate Extensa (incl. Realinvest RE) Financière Duval Anima Care Private Equity Sofinim Cash Investments GIB Groupe Flo Trasys Cash
Method
KBCS has a BUY recommendation and a € 70 target price. The upside potential versus a stock price of € 63.52 equals 10.2%. The implied discount of our € 70 target price vs. the target equity value is 14%.
2,723.45 81.39 21.96%
Annex 3: Sofina Portfolio
BB
Sector
Top stakes listed portfolio SES SESG FP Telecommunication Danone BN FP Food processing Colruyt COLR BB Distribution GDF Suez GSZ FP Energy Delhaize DELB BB Distribution Eurazeo RF FP Investment company Total FP FP Energy Ipsos (LT participations) IPS FP Research firm BioMérieux BIM FP Medical testing services Caledonia Investments CLDN LN Investment company Suez Environnement SEV FP Water and waste SCR Sibelco SCRVP BB Diversified minerals Rapala VMC RAP1V FH Fishing equipment Mersen MRN FP Electrical products Luxempart LXMP LX Investment company Touax TOUP FP Infrastructure leasing Deceuninck DECB BB Building products RAB Energy Fund RABENEA KY Investment funds Vicat VCT FP Cement production Shimano 7309 JP Outdoor sports gear Eredene ERE LN Logistics Exmar EXM BB LNG/LPG transport Ageas AGS BB Insurance Direct Private Equity Bowers & Wilkins High-end loudspeakers Codic Real Estate Promotion M. Chapoutier Wine production MMC (Groupe Chapoutier) Wine production O3b networks Satellite network operator Sylve Invest(Petit Forestier) Refrigeration services Indirect Private Equity 3rd Party Funds portfolio Hedge fund portfolio
# shares 19,253,089 6,920,428 8,750,000 12,805,466 3,618,401 3,600,000 2,608,625 4,488,825 835,619 2,847,344 4,125,000 5,058 7,500,000 1,582,398 1,257,500 961,374 18,856,250 74,906 315,000 230,000 45,656,002 797,019 2,097,265
last price (€) 21.11 46.36 33.86 17.95 29.13 36.36 39.87 24.53 70.80 18.92 8.68 9,950.00 4.91 21.43 23.77 24.70 1.21 198.30 41.50 50.83 0.16 5.72 19.75
% of cpy
% of NAV
value (€ m)
5.7% 1.1% 5.2% 0.6% 3.6% 5.5% 0.1% 9.9% 2.1% 5.0% 0.8% 19.0% 7.8% 5.2% 16.7% 17.5% 0.1% 0.2% 10.2% 1.3% 0.9%
57.2% 10.9% 8.6% 8.0% 6.2% 2.8% 3.5% 2.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 5.6%
2,122.9 406.3 320.8 296.2 229.8 105.4 130.9 104.0 90.1 59.2 53.9 35.8 50.3 36.8 33.9 29.9 23.7 22.8 14.9 13.1 11.7 7.4 4.6 41.4 206.9
23.6% 20.9% 2.7%
875.7 775.7 100.0
86.4% 13.6% 100.0%
3,205.46 505.39 3,710.85
1.9% 0.4%
34,750,000 644,313 127,524 34,622,476
20.0% 17.9% 15.2% 15.2% 7.2% 19.7%
Portfolio Net cash & others Adjusted equity value Number of shares (outstanding) Treasury shares (for remuneration purposes, resale, collateral,...) Treasury shares (available for cancellation) Number of shares (for per share calculation) Sofina last price Adjusted equity value p.s. Current discount Target prices
65.00 107.18 39.35% GDF Suez Exmar Ageas Luxempart
20.00 8.00 28.50 26.00
Target equity value Target equity value p.s. Discount to target equity value
26
19 oktober 2012
KBCS has a BUY recommendation and a € 75 target price. The upside potential versus a stock price of € 65 equals 15.38%. The implied discount of our € 75 target price vs. the target equity value is 31.71%.
Colruyt Delhaize Deceuninck
34.00 40.00 1.30 3,802.44 109.83 40.82%
Annex 4: Brederode Portfolio Insurance Ageas
BB
No. of shares
Last price (€)
Currency
% of NAV
7.86
AGS BB
397,750
19.75
EUR
0.76%
7.86
16.57%
171.72
ENI IM EOAN GR IBE SM RDSA NA SPM IM FP FP
1,749,000 1,500,000 4,589,422 1,616,621 480,000 850,000
17.97 18.50 4.01 26.73 35.54 39.87
EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR
3.03% 2.68% 1.77% 4.17% 1.65% 3.27%
31.43 27.75 18.39 43.20 17.06 33.89
0.63%
6.51
FTE FP TEL NO
685,000 80,000
9.51 14.52
EUR NOK
0.63% 0.11%
6.51 1.16
7.37%
76.39
FRE GY NOVN VX SAN FP
167,397 580,000 470,000
95.25 48.36 68.94
EUR CHF EUR
1.54% 2.71% 3.13%
15.94 28.05 32.40
19.49%
202.08
412,844 577,872 100,000 1,926,782 1,587,302 684,152 25,000 308,750 1,611,788
53.23 51.00 461.13 1.63 1.28 65.10 284.95 3.84 28.32
CHF CHF USD GBp GBp EUR CHF EUR EUR
2.12% 2.84% 4.45% 0.30% 0.20% 4.30% 0.69% 0.11% 4.40% 0.08%
21.98 29.47 46.11 3.14 2.04 44.54 7.12 1.19 45.65 0.85
Listed portfolio Private equity
44.87% 53.99%
465.14 559.73
Portfolio Net cash & other assets Adjusted equity value
98.87% 1.13% 100.00%
1,024.88 11.76 1,036.64
0.0% 2.2%
30,029,254 0 652,033 29,377,221
Energy & Electricity ENI E.ON Iberdrola Royal Dutch Saipem Total Telecom France Telecom Telenor Pharmacy Fresenius SE & Co Novartis Sanofi
Diverse Industries Holcim HOLN VX Nestlé NESN VX Samsung Electronics GDR SMSN LI Schröder UK Alpha Plus Fund SCHUKAA LN Schröder Specialist Value UK Eq. Fd SSVUEXA LN Sofina SOF BB Syngenta SYNN VX TomTom TOM2 NA Unilever UNA NA Others (<1m)
Number of shares (outstanding) Treasury shares (for remuneration purposes, resale, collateral,...) Treasury shares (available for cancellation) Number of shares (for per share calculation) Brederode last price Adjusted equity value p.s. Current discount Target prices Target equity value Target equity value p.s. Discount to target equity value
27
19 oktober 2012
Value (€ m)
0.76%
22.55 35.29 36.10% Sofina
75.00
KBCS has a BUY recommendation and a € 25 target price. The upside potential versus a stock price of € 22.55 equals 10.86%. The implied discount of our € 25 target price vs. the target equity value is 29.85%.
Ageas
28.50 1,046.89 35.64 36.72%
Annex 5: RHJ International Portfolio Private Banking Kleinwort Benson Kleinwort Benson Investors Quirin Bank Ripplewood Fund LSP Arecon Industrial portfolio Shaklee SigmaXYZ
Ticker
Sector/country
% Ownership
Valuation
% of NAV
QB7 GR
United Kingdom Ireland Germany US Switzerland
100.00% 100.00% 27.80% 13.00% 60.00%
1x TEV Inv. value 1.23 Inv. value Inv. value
48.03% 37.33% 4.31% 2.69% 2.64% 1.06%
Stake value EUR (€m) 263.93 205.14 23.70 14.79 14.50 5.80
Nutrition ICT consulting
40.63% 21.80%
¥ 536 Inv. value
11.51% 9.95% 1.57%
63.26 54.66 8.60
59.54% 40.46% 100.00%
327.19 222.30 549.49
2.33% 0.00%
85,545,547 1,992,079 0 85,545,547
8205 JP
Portfolio Net cash (incl. loans) Adjusted equity value Number of shares (outstanding) Treasury shares (for remuneration purposes, resale, collateral,...) Treasury shares (available for cancellation) Number of shares (for per share calculation) RHJ International last price Adjusted equity value p.s. Current discount Target prices Target equity value Target equity value p.s. Discount to target equity value KBCS has a BUY recommendation and a € 5.6 target price. The upside potential versus a stock price of € 3.82 equals 46.6%. The implied discount of our € 5.6 target price vs. the target equity value is 12.82%. The NAV model uses exchange rates of 103.27 YEN/EUR and 0.813 EUR/GBP.
28
19 oktober 2012
3.82 6.42 40.5%
549.49 6.42 40.5%
Annex 6: Punch International Participations
BB
Last price
Est. value
(€)
(100%, € m)
%
Xeikon (*)
XEI NA
2.85
81.8
Accentis
ACCB BB
0.01
12.7
stake
Valuation method
% of NAV
Est. value
65.68%
Stock price
119%
53.7
3.85%
Stock price
1%
0.5
Portfolio
119.9%
54.23
Net cash
-20%
-9.0
Adjusted equity value
100%
45.23
(stake, € m)
Number of shares (outstanding)
11,903,305
Treasury shares (for remuneration purposes, resale, collateral,...)
0.0%
0
Treasury shares (available for cancellation)
0.1%
13,104
Number of shares (for per share calculation)
11,890,201
Punch last price
2.72
Adjusted equity value p.s.
3.80
Implied discount
28.49%
Target prices Target equity value Target equity value p.s. Discount to target equity value KBCS has an ACCUMULATE recommendation and a € 2.75 target price. The upside potential versus a stock price of € 2.72 equals 1.1%. The implied discount of our € 2.75 target price vs. the target equity value is 27.7%. (*) Punch International holds 18,856,298 shares of Xeikon 65.68%), which in itself holds 3,032,752 treasury shares. Should Xeikon decide to cancel its treasury shares, Punch International's stake will increase to 73.43%.
29
19 oktober 2012
45.23 3.80 28.49%
Annex 7: Kardan Portfolio
BB ticker
Last price
CEE China
PLN 8.34 Unl. Unl.
100% 27.75% 100.00% 48.75%
Romania & Bulgaria
Unl.
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Real Estate GTC SA GTC PW Kardan Land China GTC Investments Western Europe Net financial liabilities Retail lending TBIF Net financial liabilities
% held (or # shs)
Country / Region
Infrastructure (Tahal) Projects & Assets Net financial liabilities Portfolio Net cash Adjusted equity value Number of shares (outstanding) Treasury shares (for remuneration purposes, resale, collateral,...) Treasury shares (available for cancellation) Number of shares (for per share calculation) Kardan last price (Euronext Amsterdam listing) Adjusted equity value p.s. Current discount Target prices Target equity value Target equity value p.s. Discount to target equity value
30
19 oktober 2012
Value (€ m)
214.71% 70.52% 139.11% 5.07% 0.00%
550.27 180.75 356.53 13.00 0.00
P/B, P/E
11.33% 11.33% 0.00%
29.04 29.04 0.00
P/B, EBITDA
47.20% 57.74% -10.53%
120.98 147.98 -27.00
273.24% -173.24% 100.00%
700.29 -444.00 256.29
1.1% 0.0%
111,824,638 1,219,884 0 111,824,638
Share price DCF, P/B
0.88 2.29 61.60% GTC SA
KBCS has a BUY recommendation and a € 1 target price. The upside potential versus a stock price of € 0.88 equals 13.64%. The implied discount of our € 1 target price vs. the target equity value is 54.88%.
% NAV
Valuation method
PLN 7.95 247.84 2.22 60.29%
