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INDIRECTE EFFECTEN

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Effecten op de werkgelegenheid

EXTERNE EFFECTEN

Milieu

Effecten op de aandeelhouderswaarde en de mogelijkheid om (deels) te privatiseren Effecten op de internationale concurrentiepositie van de grootverbruikers energie Precedentwerking ‘vergaande’ splitsingsvoorstel

Eénmalige en structurele reorganisatiekosten Effecten op de contracten van de Cross Border Leases Verlies synergie tussen het netwerk en overige activiteiten Kans op dubbele marginalisatie Risico van juridische zaken door onteigening Kosten van het vervaardigen van het splitsingsvoorstel PROJECTALTERNATIEF: VERSTERKING TRANSMISSIEFUNCTIE TENNET DIRECTE EFFECTEN

Vergroting van de betrouwbaarheid door integrale blik en snellere actie in geval van nood

INDIRECTE EFFECTEN

Kosten van belastingheffing

EXTERNE EFFECTEN

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2 Maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyse 5%/* GKF!* A(/* <0&'%/* =%'%I8/8%%&'* (;#* %%/* 40;;%'8=* 04%&?823$* 4(/* '%* <%;4((&$#%II%2$%/* 4(/* C%;%8')*<((&C8@*'%?%*%II%2$%/*8/*=%;'*?8@/*W8$=%'&WA$9*`((A*<0&'$*<%;4((&$*[*%/*'((&"%%*'%*GKF!* [**$%/*0/&%23$%*=%?8%/*(;#*8%$#*'($*W8$#;W8$%/'*I8/(/28b;%*&8@A'0"*C%$&%I$9*./*'%*<%;4((&$#%20/0"8%* C%$&%I$*3%$*%23$%&*(;;%#*<($*0/#*<%;C%48/'%/*&((A$*%/*'($*'00&*%20/0"8#23*3(/'%;%/*N1&0'W2$8%)* 20/#W"1$8%)*$&(/#(2$8%#O*<0&'$*C%j/4;0%'9*E%*GKF!*0"4($*'W#*C8@400&C%%;'*00A*"8;8%W%II%2$%/9* !#1%2$%/* '8%* /8%$* 0/?%* I8/(/28b;%* 10#8$8%)* "((&* <%;* 0/#* <%;C%48/'%/* &(A%/)* <0&'%/* '00&* /8%$B %20/0"%/*4((A*((/=%'W8'*(;#*<%;?8@/9*520/0"%/*/0%"%/*'8$*d=%<00/^*<%;4((&$9* * ./*'8$*300I'#$WA*;%==%/*<%*8/*(;=%"%/%*$%&"%/*W8$*<($*'%*IW/2$8%*4(/*%%/*GKF!*A(/*?8@/)*30%* %%/*GKF!*8/*=&0$%*;8@/%/*<0&'$*W8$=%40%&'*%/*30%*"0%$*<0&'%/*0"=%=((/*"%$*0/?%A%&3%8'9**

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Figuur 2.1: Voorbeelden van maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyses voor energie Reserve capaciteit TenneT houdt reservecapaciteit aan om stroomuitval te voorkomen. Prijzen reflecteren de fluctuaties in de schaarste onvoldoende waardoor de elektriciteitsmarkt niet vanzelf hoeft uit te komen op het sociale optimum. Het CPB (2004) heeft, gebaseerd op een analyse van de maatschappelijke kosten en baten, een uitbreiding van dit vangnet geadviseerd. Splitsing van de energiebedrijven Het CPB (2005a) heeft een analyse gemaakt van de effecten van de voorgenomen splitsing van de energiebedrijven. Hun belangrijkste conclusie is dat het niet duidelijk is of het splitsen van energiebedrijven in publieke netwerkbedrijven en commerciële productie- en handelsbedrijven per saldo welvaartswinst oplevert. Splitsing kan diverse voordelen hebben, zoals een helderder scheiding tussen commerciële en gereguleerde bedrijven waardoor bedrijven zich beter op hun eigen activiteiten kunnen richten en waardoor de concurrentie verbeterd. Het is onduidelijk hoe groot de welvaartsvoordelen van die voordelen zullen zijn. Tegenover deze baten staan kosten, waaronder het risico dat de bestaande leaseconstructies tot grote kosten leiden. Kortom het CPB concludeert dat de kosten en baten van splitsing van de energiebedrijven nog onzeker zijn. Tegelijkertijd wijst het CPB erop dat er nog bestaande instrumenten zijn die eerst beter benut kunnen worden. Windenergie op zee Het CPB en ECN (2005) hebben een MKBA uitgevoerd van het plaatsen en in gebruik nemen van windparken op de Noordzee. Uit de analyse blijkt dat maatschappelijk rendabel investeren in windenergie op zee een zeer geleidelijke capaciteitsopbouw én een stringent internationaal klimaatbeleid vereist. Een productieplafond op Groningengas De welvaartseffecten van gegarandeerde afzet voor gas dat in de zogenaamde kleine velden geproduceerd wordt, en een plafond op de productie van gas uit het Groningenveld zijn door het CPB (2006) in een MKBA onderzocht. Daaruit bleek dat de afzetgarantie de welvaart verhoogt, maar dat dit mogelijk anders is als een goed ontwikkelde gasmarkt ontstaat. De kosten van de afzetgarantie bestaan uit geringe prikkels voor producenten om te reageren op korte-termijn veranderingen in de gasmarkt. De baten van het productieplafond op Groningen wegen daarentegen niet op tegen de kosten van deze maatregel. De kosten van het plafond komen voort uit het naar achteren schuiven van opbrengsten uit gaswinning. De baten van deze maatregel bestaan uit wat hogere winsten bij de winning van kleine-velden gas en het naar achteren in de tijd schuiven van investeringen voor alternatieve opties voor flexibiliteit, zoals gasopslag. Effecten van liberalisering van de Britse elektriciteitsmarkt Newbery en Pollitt (1997) hebben (achteraf) een kosten-batenanalyse uitgevoerd om de effecten van de liberalisering van de Britse elektriciteitsmarkt vast te stellen. Zij vonden dat de elektriciteitssector efficiënter was gaan produceren met bestaande centrales, minder gebruik maakte van nucleaire opwekking en minder luchtvervuiling produceerde. Belangrijke kosten waren de hogere kosten voor geïmporteerde Franse stroom, reorganisatiekosten en de kosten van overmatige investeringen in nieuwe gasgestookte centrales. Per saldo is er een kostenbesparing van 54 procent geweest, de verdeling hiervan was echter ongelijk: de producenten gingen erop vooruit en de consumenten en de overheid gingen erop achteruit. Zelfregulering of wetgeving Problemen waarbij een publiek belang zodanig geschaad wordt dat overheidsingrijpen gerechtvaardigd zou kunnen zijn, kunnen met overheidsregulering (wetgeving) of met zelfregulering worden opgelost. Voor een aantal verschillende beleidsterreinen zijn Baarsma et al. (2004b) nagegaan hoe de kosten van zelfregulering zich tot die van wetgeving verhouden. In hoofdstuk 6 wordt daarin een MKBA opgesteld voor de registratie van de storing in het elektrisch systeem. Het nulalternatief bestaat uit wettelijke registratie. De twee projectalternatieven zijn verplichte en vrijwillige certificering. Uit deze kengetallen KBA bleek dat verplichte certificering het beste is en vrijwillige certificering het slechtste. De effectiviteit van de controle en de kosten van de totstandkoming en de controle zijn hierbij dominerende effecten.


MAATSCHAPPELIJKE KOSTEN-BATENANALYSE

5

F8@* 3%$* '8#281;8/%&%/* %/* 1&%#%/$%&%/* 4(/* '%* &%#W;$($%/* 8#* 3%$* '0%;* 0"* ?04%%;* "0=%;8@A* %II%2$%/* "0/%$(8&*$%*<((&'%&%/*N8/*=%;'*W8$*$%*'&WAA%/O9*E00&*(;;%#*8/*cc/*/0%"%&*0/'%&*$%*C&%/=%/)*?8@/* %II%2$%/*=0%'*4%&=%;8@AC((&*%/*<0&'$*400&A0"%/*'($*%II%2$%/*'8%*'00&*'%*"%'8(*"(AA%;8@A%&*$%* 48#W(;8#%&%/* %/* $%* C%#23&8@4%/* ?8@/* "%%&* ((/'(23$* A&8@=%/* '(/* %4%/* =&0$%* %II%2$%/* '8%* "8/'%&* "%'8(=%/8%A* ?8@/9* !;;%#* ?04%%;* "0=%;8@A* 0/'%&* cc/* /0%"%&* C&%/=%/)* 3%;1$* '((&'00&* C8@* %%/* &($80/%;%*(I<%=8/=9*:0"#*8#*3%$*%23$%&*/8%$*"0=%;8@A*(;;%*%II%2$%/*$%*<((&'%&%/9Y*E8$*#00&$*%II%2$%/* <0&'$* '(/* 01=%/0"%/* (;#* dH&0* "%"0&8%10#$^9* E%?%* <0&'%/* 4((A* /8%$* "%%=%/0"%/* 8/* '%* '8#2W##8%9* ."1;828%$* A&8@=%/* '%&=%;8@A%* %II%2$%/* 'W#* %%/* <((&'%* 4(/* /W;)* <($* /8%$* $%&%23$* 8#9* X%$* 3%;1$*'(/*'%?%*%II%2$%/*?0*1&%28%#*"0=%;8@A*$%*0"#23&8@4%/9*>4%&8=%/#*AW//%/*'%*HG*10#$%/*8/* '%* 10;8$8%A%* %/* "(($#23(11%;8@A%* '8#2W##8%* 00A* @W8#$* %%/* %e$&(* ?<((&* =%<823$* A&8@=%/9* E8$* 8#* C8@400&C%%;'* 3%$* =%4(;* C8@* 4;8%=$W8==%;W8'* &0/'* :238130;9* >/'%&?0%A* 3%%I$* ((/=%=%4%/* '($* '%* "0/%$(8&%*$%=%/<((&'%*"8/'%&*300=*8#*'(/*"%/*01*C(#8#*4(/*3%$*=%<823$*%&4(/*8/*'%*'8#2W##8%#* "(=*4%&<(23$%/*N`(/*H&((=*%/*F((&#"()*+,,YO9* * 7((&*'%*"($%*'($*3%$*;WA$*0"*(;;%*&%;%4(/$%*%II%2$%/*8/*=%;'*W8$*$%*'&WAA%/)*=%%I$*'%*GKF!*((/* 0I* 3%$*1&0@%2$*1%&* #(;'0* ((/$&%AA%;8@A* 8#)* %/*30%* =&00$*3%$* &%;($8%4%* C%;(/=* 4(/* '%* 4%î;%/'%* %II%2$%/* 8#9* !;#* C%;(/=&8@A%* %II%2$%/* /8%$* AW//%/* <0&'%/* =%A<(/$8I82%%&')* 8#* %&* =%%/* #1&(A%* 4(/* %%/* 40;;%'8=%* GKF!)* "((&* A(/* %&* 4((A* <%;* %%/* #D#$%"($8#23* 04%&?823$* 4(/* '%* 4%î;%/'%* %II%2$%/* 4(/* C%;%8'* <0&'%/* =%=%4%/)* <((&C8@* '%?%* %II%2$%/* 3%;'%&* ?8@/* =%'%I8/8%%&'* %/* =%%/* 0/'%&;8/=%*04%&;(1*4%&$0/%/9*70C%;1&8@#<8//((&*:%/*#23&%%I*38%&*8/*+,,,*04%&]*LD*#$5+0'$=#'#90&$/9$ E/(&FG#'#90&$@'+:H(0($:0#($0'$&*#$-0()0,:0'#$0&$05,/(#(>M**X%$*=(($*'((&C8@*/8%$*(;;%%/*0"*%%/*8/4%/$(&8#($8%* 4(/* "0/%$(8&%* %/* A<(/$8I82%%&C(&%* %II%2$%/)* "((&* 400&(;* 0"* '%* #D#$%"($8#23%* 0&'%/8/=* 8/* 4%î;%/'%)* /8%$B04%&;(11%/'%* %II%2$%/* <((&((/* A0#$%/* %/* C($%/* ?8@/* 4%&C0/'%/9* G%$* %%/* '%&=%;8@A*20/2%1$W%%;*GKF!*A('%&*<0&'$*'W8'%;8@A3%8'*=%2&%b%&'*04%&*'%*=%40;=%/*4(/*C%;%8'*%/* <0&'$*'%*(I<%=8/=*$W##%/*A0#$%/*%/*C($%/*4(/*'%*4%î;%/'%*(;$%&/($8%4%/*C%$%&*=%#$&00";8@/'9* a023*C%4($*%%/*GKF!*=%%/*C%;%8'#20/2;W#8%#9*G((&*%%/*GKF!*;%4%&$*?04%%;*"0=%;8@A*3%;'%&%* %/*0C@%2$8%4%*8/I0&"($8%*((/*8/*$%&"%/*4(/*10#8$8%4%*%/*/%=($8%4%*A0#$%/*%/*C($%/*%/*8/*$%&"%/* 4(/*0/?%A%&3%'%/*((/*'%*C%;%8'#"(A%&*'8%*'%*C%#;8##8/=*"0%$*/%"%/9*

2.2 Aanpak van een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`00&(I=((/'*((/*'%*'%I8/8$8%4%*1&0@%2$C%#;8##8/=*<0&'$*%%/* '8%1=((/'%* GKF!* =%"((A$9* >1* '%?%* "(/8%&* 8#* 3%$* "(A%/* 4(/* %%/* KF!* %%/* 8$%&($8%I* 1&02%#* <((&C8@* "%$* '%* 400&$=(/=* 4(/* 3%$* 0/'%&?0%A* #$%%'#* "%%&* #$WAA%/* A<(/$8$($8%I* =%4W;'* %/* ******************************************************** Y**

./*300I'#$WA*Q*=((/*<%*00A*8/*01*'%*<((&'%&8/=*4(/*/8%$B"(&A$=0%'%&%/9* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

6

4%&C%$%&'* <0&'%/9* 68=WW&* +9+* =%%I$* %%/* C%%;'* 4(/* '%* &0;* 4(/* GKF!* 8/* 3%$* C%#;W8$40&"8/=#1&02%#9* * Figuur 2.2: Structuur van het beleidsvormingsproces

Knelpunten,mogelijkheden Nulalternatief

Oplossingsrichtingen

Kengetallen MKBA

Voorfase

Toespitsing alternatieven

Eindfase

Probleemformulering Nulalternatief

Oplossingsrichtingen

Diepgaande MKBA Besluitvorming Bron:

*

Eijgenraam et al. (2000)

* l8$*'%?%*((/1(A*<8;;%/*<%*8/*'8$*300I'#$WA*48%&*0/'%&'%;%/*<($*W8$=%C&%8'%&*C%#1&%A%/9* * R9* K/%;1W/$*%/*01;0##8/=#&823$8/=%/*N1(&(=&((I*+9+9ROh* +9* 7W;B*%/*1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%4%/*N1(&(=&((I*+9+9+Oh* Q9* 5II%2$%/*4(/*'%*(;$%&/($8%4%/*N1(&(=&((I*+9+9QOh* \9* X%$*0"=((/*"%$*0/?%A%&3%8'*N1(&(=&((I*+9+9\*%/*+9+9YO9* *

2.2.1 Knelpunt en oplossingsrichting E%* >5.* 3(/';%8'8/=* ('48#%%&$* 0"* C8@* 3%$* C%=8/* 4(/* 3%$* C%#;W8$40&"8/=#$&(@%2$)* 'W#* /0=* 8/* '%* 400&I(#%)*3%$*A/%;1W/$*$%*0"#23&8@4%/9*X8%&C8@*=(($*3%$*0"*%%/*?0*3%;'%&*"0=%;8@A%*C%#23&8@48/=* 4(/* 3%$* 1&0C;%%"* %/* <($* '8$* 4%&00&?((A$9* X8%&'00&* AW//%/* '%* 01;0##8/=&823$8/=%/* C%$%&* ((/#;W8$%/* C8@* 3%$* =%20/#$($%%&'%* 1&0C;%%"9* F0e* +9R* =%%I$* 38%&4(/* %%/* 400&C%%;'* 400&* 8/I&(#$&W2$WW&*C%#;8##8/=%/9**



7

Box 2.1: Probleemformulering en oplossingsrichtingen: een infrastructuur voorbeeld Files zijn een veel voorkomend probleem op snelwegen. Een veel gekozen oplossing hiervoor is wegverbreding. Dit heeft echter ook nadelen (om te beginnen is het niet gratis), daarom kan een kosten-batenanalyse helpen om uit te maken of de voordelen opwegen tegen de nadelen. Het scherp definiëren van het knelpunt kan dan helpen. Een voorbeeld zijn de hoofdwegen in het gebied Schiphol-Amsterdam-Almere. Daar is nu veel congestie, hetgeen ook na uitvoering van de voorziene plannen zo blijft en zelfs verergert, vooral aan de zuid- en oostkant van Amsterdam. Een economische formulering van het knelpunt zou kunnen luiden dat er meer vraag is dan aanbod (van wegcapaciteit), hierdoor geschied de verdeling niet op efficiënte wijze maar ontstaan er wachtrijen (files). Hierdoor wordt duidelijk dat er een aantal mogelijke oplossingsrichtingen zijn: vergroten van het aanbod (meer asfalt), het sturen van de vraag (postbus 51 spotjes over thuiswerken) en het verbeteren van het toewijzingingsmodel (beprijzen). Van het gebied bij Amsterdam heeft Decisio (2005) drie mogelijk oplossingsrichtingen uitgerekend: twee varianten van meer asfalt en een variant waarin de schaarste wordt geprijsd. Uit deze MKBA op hoofdlijnen kwam naar voren dat beprijzen het beste is voor de welvaart.

* * ./*'%*C%#;W8$40&"8/=#I(#%*8#*3%$*&(('?(("*0"*<%'%&0"*$%*A8@A%/*/((&*<($*3%$*1&0C;%%"*1&%28%#* 8#9* 7((#$* 400&$#23&8@'%/'%* 0/$<8AA%;8/=%/* C8//%/* '%* "(($#23(11%;8@A%* '8#2W##8%* <((&8/* C%;%8'#"(A%&#*3W/*C%#;W8$%/*"0%$%/*/%"%/)*8#*%&*'00&*3%$*W8$<%&A%/*4(/*'%*01;0##8/=#&823$8/=%/* %/*3%$*W8$40%&%/*4(/*%%/*A%/=%$(;;%/*A0#$%/BC($%/(/(;D#%*"%%#$(;*00A*#1&(A%*4(/*400&$#23&8@'%/'* 8/?823$9** *

2.2.2 Nulalternatief en projectalternatief 5%/* A0#$%/BC($%/(/(;D#%* 4%&=%;8@A$* N"8/#$%/#O* $<%%* "0=%;8@A%* $0%A0"#$8=%* (;$%&/($8%4%/]* %%/* d1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%I^* 0I* C%;%8'#(;$%&/($8%I* <((&8/* %%/* C%1((;'%* 40&"* 4(/* C%;%8'* <0&'$* =%40%&'* %/* %%/*d/W;(;$%&/($8%I^*<((&8/*'($*C%;%8'*/8%$*<0&'$*=%40%&'9*X%$*8/4W;;%/*4(/*'%?%*(;$%&/($8%4%/*;8@A$* 01*3%$*%%&#$%*=%?823$*#8"1%;)*"((&*8#*8/*'%*1&(A$8@A*4((A*/8%$*%%/40W'8=9* * E%* 8/8$8($8%I/%"%&#* 4(/* /8%W<* C%;%8'* 3%CC%/* %%/* /($WW&;8@A%* /%8=8/=* 0"* "%$* /("%* 3%$* 1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%I*W8$*$%*<%&A%/9*E%*#8$W($8%*'8%*0/$#$(($*(;#*3%$*C%;%8'*/8%$*<0&'$*=%40%&')*48/'%/* ?8@*0/((/$&%AA%;8@A9*E%*>5.B;%8'&(('*I0&"W;%%&$*'8$*(;#*40;=$]*dE%*01'&(23$*8#*0"*%%/*1&0C;%%"* 01*$%*;0##%/*'00&*3%$*C%#$%*1&0@%2$*$%*0/$<%&1%/9*f((&0"*?0W'%/*<%*0/#*'(/*W8$=%C&%8'*C%?8=* =((/* 30W'%/* "%$* '%* #8$W($8%* '8%* C;8@A%/#* '8%* 01'&(23$* @W8#$* 4%&"%'%/* "0%$* <0&'%/m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


8

1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%I9* E%* &%'%/* 8#* '($* '%* 40&"=%48/=* 4(/* 3%$* /W;(;$%&/($8%I* '8&%2$* '00&<%&A$* 8/* '%* C%&%A%/'%*A0#$%/*%/*C($%/*4(/*3%$*1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%I9** * X%$* =(($* (;;%&%%&#$* 0"* '%* 4&((=* <%;A* C%;%8'* 8/* 3%$* /W;(;$%&/($8%I* <0&'$* =%40%&'9* >1* 3%$* %%&#$%* =%?823$*;8@A$*'8$*%%/40W'8=]*8/*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*A(/*8""%&#*<0&'%/*((/=%/0"%/*'($*3%$*C%;%8'* (23$%&<%=%* C;8@I$m* ./* '%* 1&(A$8@A* ?(;* '(/* %23$%&* "0%$%/* <0&'%/* 4%&0/'%&#$%;'* <($* %&* 8/* 3%$* /W;(;$%&/($8%I*=%C%W&$*"%$*'%*'((&'00&*C%#1((&'%*04%&3%8'#W8$=(4%/9*f0&'%/*'%?%*8/=%?%$*400&* C%;(#$8/=4%&;(=8/=* 0I* 400&* W8$=(4%/* 01* (/'%&%* C%;%8'#$%&&%8/%/m* E%* 4%&0/'%&#$%;;8/=* '8%* 01* '8$* 1W/$*<0&'$*=%"((A$)*8#*'8&%2$*4(/*8/4;0%'*01*'%*W8$A0"#$%/*4(/*'%*GKF!9*>0A*(;#*3%$*1&0@%2$* /8%$* <0&'$* =%&%(;8#%%&')* "0%$%/* 4%&(/$<00&'%* A%W?%#* <0&'%/* =%"((A$9* X%$* /W;(;$%&/($8%I* 8#* '((&0"* %%/* 20"C8/($8%* 4(/* '%* C%#$%* (/'%&%* ((/<%/'8/=* 4(/* "8''%;%/* %/* '%* C%#$* "0=%;8@A%* (/'%&%*01;0##8/=%/*400&*A/%;1W/$%/9*X%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*8#*'W#*8%$#*(/'%&#*'(/*d/8%$#*'0%/^*%/*3%$* 8#*00A*/8%$*dC%#$((/'*C%;%8'^9*H%&*#8$W($8%*"0%$*<0&'%/*/(=%=((/*<($*3%$*C%#$%*(;$%&/($8%I*8#*400&* 3%$*1&0@%2$9*E%*>5.B;%8'&(('*C%/('&WA$*'($*00A*8/*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*C%;%8'*A(/*<0&'%/*=%40%&'* 0"*1&0C;%"%/*$%*4%&A;%8/%/9*X8%&C8@*4(;$*$%*'%/A%/*((/*A;%8/%&%*W8$=(4%/)*=%&823$*01*'%*=&00$#$%* 1&0C;%"%/9*>0A*8#*3%$*"0=%;8@A*0"*8/*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*%4%/4%%;*W8$=(4%/*$%*4%&0/'%&#$%;;%/*(;#* 8/*3%$*C%;%8'#(;$%&/($8%I)*"((&*'%?%*"8''%;%/*8/*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*"8/'%&*=%&823$n"%%&*=%/%&8%A*$%* C%#$%'%/9* >0A* W8$#$%;* 4(/* 3%$* 1&0@%2$* 8#* 4((A* %%/* &%;%4(/$* (;$%&/($8%Ih* '8$* A(/* <0&'%/* "%%=%/0"%/*(;#*%%/*4(&8(/$9-* * 68=WW&* +9Q* 8;;W#$&%%&$* 3%$* C%;(/=* 4(/* 3%$* /W;(;$%&/($8%I9* 5%/* $%* /%=($8%I* /W;(;$%&/($8%I* N&%I%&%/$8%(;$%&/($8%I*RO*;%8'$*$0$*%%/*04%($$8/=*4(/*'%*C($%/9** ** Figuur 2.3: Het belang van het nulalternatief

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000

2010

referentie alternatief 1

2020 referentie alternatief 2

2040 project alternatief

*

******************************************************** -**

X%$*4%î*$W##%/*3%$*1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%I*%/*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*<0&'$*/8%$*(;;%%/*C%1((;'*'00&*3%$*1&0@%2$* ?%;I9*X%$*1&0@%2$*A(/*C8@400&C%%;'*'%*20/2W&&%/$8%*W8$'(=%/*$0$*%II828b/$8%4%&C%$%&8/=%/9*X8%&'00&*A(/*'%* 0"=%48/=*%&*8/*3%$*1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%I*(/'%&#*W8$?8%/*'(/*8/*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I9*


*


9

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2.2.3 Effecten van de alternatieven F8@* 3%$* 8/4%/$(&8#%&%/* 4(/* (;;%* %II%2$%/* 4(/* %%/* 1&0@%2$* <%&A$* %%/* KF!* #$&W2$W&%&%/'* 0"'($* 0/'%%8'*<0&'$*=%"((A$*$W##%/*4%î;%/'%*#00&$%/*%II%2$%/9** *

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10

d'00&=%4%/* 4(/* %II%2$%/^)* %&4(/* W8$=((/'%* '($* C%;%8'* ;%8'$* $0$* %%/* A0#$%/4%&;(=8/=* N'%/A* C8@400&C%%;'*((/*%%/*A0#$%/4%&;(=%/'%*8//04($8%O9*X%$*A0#$%/400&'%%;*A0"$*W8$%8/'%;8@A*$%&%23$* 8/*'%*<8/#$%/*4(/*C%'&8@4%/*%/n0I*'%*1&8@?%/*'8%*20/#W"%/$%/*C%$(;%/9*E((&C8@*<0&'$*3%$*%II%2$* /8%$*(W$0"($8#23*=&0$%&9*E%*>5.B;%8'&(('*4%&=%;8@A$*'8$*"%$*%%/*#$%%/*'8%*8/*%%/*#$8;;%*48@4%&*<0&'$* =%=008'9*E%?%*4%&00&?((A$*<%;*#$%%'#*=&0$%&%*&8/=%/)*"((&*'%*W8$%8/'%;8@A%*#$8@=8/=*4(/*3%$*<($%&* 8#*=%;8@A*((/*3%$*40;W"%*4(/*'%*#$%%/9*54%/?0*8#*3%$*W8$%8/'%;8@A%*%II%2$*4(/*%%/*A0#$%/4%&;(=8/=*8/* %%/*#%2$0&*/0&"((;*=%#1&0A%/*=%;8@A*((/*3%$*((/4(/A%;8@A%*400&'%%;9*E%*>5.B;%8'&(('*<8@#$*%&01* '($*'%*%II%2$%/*8/*4%î;%/'%*#%2$0&%/*'((&0"*/8%$*?0"((&*C8@*%;A((&*"0=%/*<0&'%/*01=%$%;')* 0"'($*'8$*;%8'$*$0$*'WCC%;$%;;8/=9** * Figuur 2.4 Het doorgeven van effecten

* * f%;*AW//%/*%&*40;=%/#*'%*>5.B;%8'&(('*%e$&(*400&'%;%/*0I*/('%;%/*01$&%'%/*$8@'%/#*3%$*'00&=%B 4%/*4(/*%II%2$%/)*0"*$<%%*&%'%/%/]* * R9* !;#*'%*"(&A$%/*'8%*<0&'%/*C%j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e$&(*1&0'W2$8%=&0%8*8/*7%'%&;(/'9* * X%$*$0$((;*4(/*'%*(''8$80/%;%*8/'8&%2$%*%II%2$%/*4(/*8/I&(#$&W2$WW&1&0@%2$%/*8#*"%%#$(;*A;%8/%&*'(/* Q,o*4(/*3%$*$&(/#10&$A0#$%/400&'%%;9T*E8$*&%;($84%%&$*3%$*C%;(/=*4(/*%%/*'8%1=((/'%*(/(;D#%*4(/* '%*8/'8&%2$%*%II%2$%/9*5%/*'%&=%;8@A%*(/(;D#%*8#*C04%/'8%/*'00&=((/#*$8@'&04%/'9*a%/*#;0$$%*8#*%&* #1&(A%* 4(/* A%//8#;(2W/%#)* C8@400&C%%;'* $%/* ((/?8%/* 4(/* '%* 0"4(/=* 4(/* %II828b/$8%B%II%2$%/9* a%=%/* '%?%* (23$%&=&0/'* <0&'$* C8@* GKF!^#* 4(/* 8/I&(#$&W2$WW&1&0@%2$%/* 4((A* =%A0?%/* 0"* '%* 8/'8&%2$%*%II%2$%/*/8%$*(I?0/'%&;8@A*$%*0/'%&?0%A%/)*"((&*38%&400&*%%/*C(/'C&%%'$%*$%*=%C&W8A%/* 4(/*,*p*Q,o*4(/*'%*'8&%2$%*%II%2$%/9** ******************************************************** T**

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11

5%/*400&C%%;'*4(/*'8&%2$%*%/*8/'8&%2$%*%II%2$%/*%/*30%*'%?%*4((A*#("%/3(/=%/*#$(($*8/*C0e*+9+9* * Box 2.2: Directe en indirecte effecten: een voorbeeld op infrastructuur gebied. Verbetering van infrastructuur biedt bedrijven (gebruikers) voordelen. Gebruikers kunnen dit voordeel echter niet altijd vasthouden. Onder druk van concurrentie worden ze gedwongen het voordeel met anderen te delen. Als voorbeeld kan de prijs van onroerend goed in de buurt van spoorwegstations dienen. Treinreizigers profiteren van investering en in railinfrastructuur. Echter, als sommige reizigers proberen in de buurt van een station te gaan wonen, zullen huizenprijzen daar stijgen. Deze reizigers zien een deel van het voordeel verdwijnen in de vorm van hogere huizenprijzen en daarmee in de portemonnee van huiseigenaren. Bron:

Eijgenraam e.a. (2000, p. 43).

*

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`((A* C%j/4;0%'%/* %e$%&/%* %II%2$%/* W8$%8/'%;8@A* 00A* '%* <((&'%* 4(/* "(&A$=0%'%&%/9* g0* 8#* '%* 1&8@#* 4(/* <0/8/=%/*"%$*=%;W8'38/'%&*4(/*:238130;)*;(=%&*'(/*4(/*4%&=%;8@AC(&%*<0/8/=%/*?0/'%&*=%;W8'38/'%&*N`(/* H&((=*%/*F((&#"(*N+,,YOO9* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

12

Box 2.3: Waardering zonder markt Sommige effecten binnen een MKBA zijn lastig te waarderen omdat er geen markt is waar deze effecten worden verhandeld. Een voorbeeld hiervan is de waarde van leveringszekerheid van energie: er is geen goedwerkende markt waar meer leveringszekerheid te koop is. Hierdoor is de waarde van extra leveringszekerheid alleen met andere methodes dan marktprijzen te bepalen. Een eerste stap in de waardering is het precies omschrijven van de fysieke effecten (bijvoorbeeld minder investeringen in het netwerk) en nagaan wat dit voor effect heeft op de variabele die van belang is en hoeveel mensen hiervan merken (hoeveel meer/minder leveringszekerheid). De laatste stap is de waardering van deze welvaartseffecten (hoeveel is het mensen waard dat er meer leveringszekerheid is). Economen hebben diverse methoden ontwikkeld om niet marktgoederen te waarderen. Deze vallen 9 in twee hoofdcategorieën uiteen: 1. De revealed preference methoden maken gebruik van waarneembare marktgegevens van prijzen en kosten. Hiervan zijn twee subcategorieën: a. De waarde wordt afgeleid uit de kosten of prijs voor een milieugoed. Een voorbeeld hiervan is de Loss of Earnings methode waarbij wordt gekeken hoeveel de productie afneemt door een bepaalde milieuverontreiniging. Een milieuverontreiniging die tot gevolg heeft dat de visvangst afneemt wordt dan gewaardeerd als de afname van het aantal kilo’s visvangst maal de kiloprijs van vis. b. De waarde wordt afgeleid uit de prijs of kosten van een surrogaat goed. Een voorbeeld hiervan is de reiskostenbenadering. Hierbij wordt nagegaan hoeveel tijd mensen besteden om in een natuurgebied te komen. Deze tijd wordt dan gewaardeerd tegen de waarde van tijd zoals deze uit enquêtestudies bekend is of tegen het loon (waarbij een aantal aannames over de werking van de arbeidsmarkt gemaakt worden). 2. De stated preference methoden zijn niet gebaseerd op waarneembare marktgegevens van prijzen en kosten, maar leiden de waarde af uit de antwoorden op de vragen in een enquête waarin een markt wordt gesimuleerd. Zo kan in de contingent valuation methode direct gevraagd worden naar hoeveel het de respondent waard is om het uitsterven van een bepaalde soort te voorkomen. Op energiegebied zijn diverse waarderingsstudies uitgevoerd van niet markt goederen. Waarderingsstudies. Dit betreft zowel de waarde van vervuiling zoals de uitstoot van CO2 waar tot voor kort geen markt voor was, als de waarde van leveringszekerheid (zie Baarsma et al. ,2004, en Bijvoet et al. (2003)).

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13

%&01* (23$%&W8$=((/* NA0#$%/O* $%&<8@;* 3%$* C%'&8@I#;%4%/* 1&0I8$%%&$* NC($%/O9* E%&=%;8@A%* 4%î;%/* #1%;%/* /((#$* 3%$* #(;'0* 4(/* '%* A0#$%/* %/* C($%/* 4((A* %%/* '00&#;(==%4%/'%* &0;* C8@* '%* C%#;8##8/=* 0"$&%/$* %%/* 1&0@%2$9* X%$* 8#* 00A* "0=%;8@A* 0"* C8@* 20/#W"%/$%/* 0/'%%8'* $%* "(A%/* /((&* '%* 4%î;%/'%*8/A0"%/#A;(##%/*<((&*'%*A0#$%/*0I*C($%/*$%&%23$A0"%/*%/*?0*&%A%/8/=*$%*30W'%/* "%$*3%&4%&'%;8/=#%II%2$%/9* *

Effecten – overzicht :("%/4($$%/'*0/'%%8'%/*<%*'%*40;=%/'%*%II%2$%/]* * • E8&%2$%*%II%2$%/]*%II%2$%/*8/*'%*C%$&%II%/'%*#%2$0&*N8/2;9*(I/%"%&#Oh* • ./'8&%2$%* %II%2$%/* N%20/0"8#23%* W8$#$&(;8/=O]* %II%2$%/* 8/* 3%$* 04%&8=%* '%%;* 4(/* '%* "(&A$* N(/'%&%*#%2$0&%/)*(/'%&%*(I/%"%&#)*04%&3%'%/*%$29Oh* • 5e$%&/%*%II%2$%/]*%II%2$%/*CW8$%/*'%*"(&A$h* • `%&'%;8/=#%II%2$%/*04%&*4%î;%/'%*(2$0&%/*0I*&%=80^#9* * E8$* 0/'%%8'* /((&* #00&$%/* %II%2$%/* <0&'$* =%"((A$* 0"* #23%&1* /(* $%* '%/A%/* 04%&* <($* /W* 1&%28%#* 3%$* %II%2$* 8#* '($* 01$&%%'$9* E8$* 0/'%%8'* 8#* 4((A* C%3W;1?(("* C8@* 3%$* 400&A0"%/* 4(/* 'WCC%;$%;;8/=%/9* X8%&4(/* 4(;$* %23$%&* =%%/*#1%28I8%A%&* $0%&%A%/8/=#A('%&*$%*"(A%/]* 1%&* %II%2$*%/* 1%&*1&0@%2$*(I?0/'%&;8@A*"0%$*<0&'%/*/(=%=((/*0I*8%$#*%%/*'8&%2$)*8/'8&%2$*0I*%e$%&/*%II%2$*8#)*%/* <($*'%*=%40;=%/*'((&4(/*?8@/*400&*'%*C%&%A%/8/=9* *

2.2.4 Effecten in de tijd: gebruik van een disconteringsvoet E%*%II%2$%/*4(/*C%;%8'*#1%;%/*?823*(I*04%&*%%/*1%&80'%*4(/*"%%&'%&%*@(&%/9*J0/2W&&%/$8%400&'%%;* 4(/* #1;8$#8/=)* C8@400&C%%;')* "(/8I%#$%&%/* ?823* 1(#* /(* %/8=%* $8@'* (;#* "(&A$#1%;%&#* ?823* 3%CC%/* ((/=%1(#$*((/*'%*/8%W<%*#8$W($8%9*E8$*8"1;82%%&$*'($*04%&3%8'#W8$=(4%/*%/*A0#$%/*400&*C%'&8@4%/* N4%%;O*%%&'%&*1;(($#48/'%/*'(/*'%*&%(;8#($8%*4(/*'%*C($%/9*E%*20#$*=(($*400&*'%*C(%$*W8$)*00A*38%&9** * ./* %%/* GKF!*<0&'%/* A0#$%/* %/* C($%/* '8%* 01* 4%î;%/'%* $8@'#$811%/* C%$&%AA8/=* 3%CC%/)* 01* cc/*/0%"%&*=%C&(23$*'00&*'%*/%$$0*20/$(/$%*<((&'%*$%*C%&%A%/%/)*/%$*(;#*C%'&8@4%/*4((A*'0%/*C8@* 3W/* 8/4%#$%&8/=#C%#;8##8/=%/9* E8$* =%C%W&$* "%$* C%3W;1* 4(/* %%/* '8#20/$%&8/=#40%$)* '8%* $<%%* %;%B "%/$%/*<%%%=%;$]* * B* gW84%&%*$8@'400&A%W&*N;0#*4(/*&8#820^#O]*'%*"%%#$%*"%/#%/*3%CC%/*;8%4%&*/W*=%;'*'(/*'%?%;I'%* 30%4%%;3%8'*=%;'*8/*'%*$0%A0"#$9*E%?%*$8@'400&A%W&*8#*<%%%=%;'*8/*C8@400&C%%;'*'%*&%/$%* 01*#$(($#0C;8=($8%#]*'%*04%&3%8'*"0%$*NC04%/01*'%*4%&<(23$%*8/I;($8%O*Q*p*\o*&%/$%*C8%'%/*0"* 8/4%#$%%&'%&#*$%* 4%&;%8'%/*0"* 3W/* =%;'* /W* A<8@$* $%*?8@/* %/* 3%$*1(#* ;($%&*$%&W=*$%* A&8@=%/9* E%* >5.B;%8'&(('*C%4%%;$*((/*0"*%%/*&%b;%*'8#20/$%&8/=#40%$*4(/*\o*$%*=%C&W8A%/*N58@=%/&(("*%$* (;)*+,,,)*19*PQO9* B* 5%/*01#;(=*400&*&8#820^#9*7((&"($%*'%*&8#820^#*4(/*%%/*8/4%#$%&8/=*=&0$%&*?8@/)*?(;*'%*8/4%#$%%&B '%&* (;#* d4%&=0%'8/=^* 400&* '%* &8#820^#* %%/* 30=%&* =%"8''%;'* &%/'%"%/$* %8#%/9* g0* ?8@/* '%* A0%&#n<8/#$* 4%&30W'8/=%/* 4(/* 2D2;8#23%* ((/'%;%/* N30=%* &8#820^#O* 01* '%* C%W&#* ;(=%&* '(/* 4(/* /8%$*2D2;8#23%*((/'%;%/*N;(=%*&8#820^#O9*./*%%/*((/4W;;8/=*01*'%*>5.B;%8'&(('*<0&'$*((/C%40;%/* 0"*'%?%*01#;(=*$%*C%1(;%/*01*C(#8#*4(/*3%$*&8#8201&0I8%;*4(/*'%*8/4%#$%&8/=9*./'8%/*'8$*1&0I8%;* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

14

/8%$* C%A%/'* 8#)* A(/* <0&'%/* =%<%&A$* "%$* %%/* 01#;(=* 4(/* Qo9* E%* $0$(;%* '8#20/$%&8/=#40%$* 8#* '(/*N\sQtO*To*NG8/8#$%&8%*4(/*68/(/28b/)*+,,\)*19*+PO9* * F8@*40;;%'8=%*"(($#23(11%;8@A%*A0#$%/BC($%/(/(;D#%#*4(/*=&0$%*1&0@%2$%/*=(($*'%*400&A%W&*W8$*/((&* 3%$* %e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

2.2.5 Onzekerheden en omgevingsscenario’s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mO9* >0A* AW//%/* %&* 0/?%A%&3%'%/* ?8@/* 04%&*'%*A0#$%/*)*?0(;#*'%*4%%;*C%#1&0A%/*#23('%2;(8"#*$%/*((/?8%/*4(/*'%*J&0##*F0&'%&*i%(#%#9* E((&/((#$*?8@/* %&*/0=* 0/C%'0%;'%* %II%2$%/*"0=%;8@A9*g0*A(/* '%* /($WW&;8@A%*1&8AA%;* $0$* 4%&$82(;%* 8/$%=&($8%* '%* 4%&<(23$%* 400&'%;%/* 400&* '%* 20/2W&&%/$8%* ?%;I#* /%=($8%I* "(A%/* N!(;C%&#* %/* F((&#"()* +,,YO9* X%$* 8#* %23$%&* 0/4%&"8@'%;8@A* '($* 3%$* C%;%8'* 01* 0/'%&'%;%/* #W22%#40;* 8#)* %/* 01* (/'%&%*0/'%&'%;%/*/8%$h*101W;(8&*=%?%=')*3%$*8#*d1(&$*0I*$3%*=("%^9* * ./'8%/* '%* 0"4(/=* 4(/* C%1((;'%* %II%2$%/* 0/?%A%&* 8#)* 8#* 3%$* 4(/* C%;(/=* 0"* %%/* =%40%;8=3%8'#(/(;D#%* W8$* $%* 40%&%/9* X8%&C8@* #$(($* '%* 4&((=* 2%/$&((;* 30%* 3%$* #(;'0* 4(/* A0#$%/* %/* C($%/*4%&(/'%&$*(;#*%%/*4(&8(C%;%*Do*30=%&*N;(=%&O*W8$4(;$*NC8@400&C%%;'*'%*"%$*#1;8$#8/=*$%*C%3(;%/* %II828b/$8%<8/#$%/O9* E%?%* (/(;D#%* A(/* C8@400&C%%;'* =%C&W8A$* <0&'%/* 0"* $%* A8@A%/* 0I* 3%$* ((/$&%AA%;8@A#$%*(;$%&/($8%I*3%$*((/$&%AA%;8@A#$*C;8@I$9*!;#*'8$*/8%$*?0*8#)*8#*3%$*?8//8=*0"*$%*1&0C%&%/* '%*4(&8(C%;%*1&%28%?%&*$%*#23($$%/9* *



15

saldo (baten min kosten)

Figuur 2.3 Saldo van het verwachte saldo van kosten en baten als functie van de kans 150 100 50 0 0

20

40

60

80

100

-50 -100 -150 kans dat een specifiek effect echt optreedt

* * E((&/((#$* 3(/=$* 3%$* #W22%#* 4(/* 3%$* #1;8$#8/=#C%;%8'* (I* 4(/* "%%&* (;=%"%/%* I(2$0&%/)* ?0(;#* '%* ;8C%&(;8#%&8/=* 4(/* '%* %/%&=8%"(&A$* 8/* '%* 0/#* 0"&8/=%/'%* ;(/'%/)* 3%$* $0$* #$(/'* A0"%/* 4(/* "(&A$A011%;8/=%/* $W##%/* ;(/'%/* N8/$%&20//%2$8%2(1(28$%8$O* %/* CW8$%/;(/'#%* 04%&/("%#9* E8$* 8"1;82%%&$* '($* %%/* GKF!* 4(/* #1;8$#8/=#C%;%8'* C8@* 400&A%W&* "0%$* <0&'%/* W8$=%40%&'* $%=%/* '%* (23$%&=&0/'* 4(/* 4%î;%/'%* 0"=%48/=##2%/(&80^#* N?8%* C8@400&C%%;'* XW8?8/=(* %/* :"8')* +,,\O9* l8$=((/*4(/*#;%23$#*cc/*400%;;8/=*?0W*(;;%%/*#238@/?%A%&3%8'*01;%4%&%/9*!;#*3%$*C%;%8'*8/*(;;%* #2%/(&80^#*d=0%'*#200&$^)*A(/*3%$*(;#*d&0CWW#$^*<0&'%/*((/=%"%&A$9*!;#*'%*GKF!*#;%23$#*8/*%%/* '%%;*4(/*'%*#2%/(&80^#*$0$*=W/#$8=%*&%#W;$($%/*;%8'$)*=%%I$*'8$*%%/*C%%;'*4(/*A&8$8#23%*#W22%#I(2$0&%/* 400&*3%$*C%;%8'9* * >/?%A%&3%'%/*3%CC%/*[*1(&(=&((I*+9+9\*%/*+9+9Y*#("%/=%4($*[*$%*"(A%/*"%$]* * • X%$*4%&<(23$%*%II%2$9*5%/*"0=%;8@A3%8'*0"*"%$*0/?%A%&3%8'*04%&*'%*0"4(/=*4(/*%II%2$%/* 0"*$%* =((/* 8#* %%/* =%40%;8=3%8'#(/(;D#%* W8$* $%* 40%&%/9*X0%* 0/?%A%&'%&* 3%$* 8#* '($*%%/* %II%2$* 01$&%%'$)* '%#* $%* C&%'%&* '%* C(/'C&%%'$%#* '8%* &0/'* '%* 4%&<(23$%* W8$A0"#$* "0%$%/* <0&'%/* =%C&W8A$*8/*'%*GKF!9*!;#*C8@*3%$*W8$40%&%/*4(/*%%/*GKF!*%%/*4(&8(C%;%*/8%$*$%*400%;;%/* 8#)*$%&<8@;*'%?%*<%;*=&0$%*8/4;0%'*3%%I$*01*'%*((/$&%AA%;8@A3%8'*4(/*'%*GKF!*'(/*8#*3%$*%%/* 8'%%*0"*%%/*dC&%(A*%4%/*A(/#^*(I*$%*;%8'%/h* • E%*"($%*4(/*&8#820*(4%%*4(/*"%/#%/*N8#*8%$#*0/0"A%%&C((&*%/*#$(($*4%%;*01*3%$*#1%;*'($* A(/*3%$*?0*?8@/*'($*%%/*30=%&%*'8#20/$040%$*=%3(/$%%&'*"0%$*<0&'%/Oh* • >/?%A%&3%'%/* 8/* '%* 0"=%48/=* A(/* ((/;%8'8/=* =%4%/* $0$* 3%$* W8$40%&%/* 4(/* %%/* #2%/(&80* (/(;D#%9* *

2.3 Resumerend E8$*300I'#$WA*04%&*GKF!*;%8'$*$0$*'%*40;=%/'%*20/2;W#8%#]* * B* 5%/*GKF!*4%(I$*W8$%&#$*/W$$8=%*8/I0&"($8%*C8@*C%;%8'#(I<%=8/=%/9*


16

B* ./*%%/*GKF!*<0&'%/*'%*%II%2$%/*NA0#$%/n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j/4;0%'%* (2$848$%8$%/9* 5II%2$%/* 400&* (/'%&%* #%2$0&%/*$&%'%/*<%;*01)*"((&*40%=%/*NC8@*8/I&(#$&W2$WW&O*"%%#$(;*"8/'%&*'(/*Q,o*$0%*((/*'%* '8&%2$%*%II%2$%/9*E((&/((#$*A(/*#1&(A%*?8@/*4(/*%e$%&/%*%II%2$%/9* B* ./* %%/* GKF!* "0%$%/* 00A* /8%$B=%"0/%$(&8#%%&'%* %II%2$%/* 3%;'%&* <0&'%/* =%1&%#%/$%%&'* %/* %4%/4%%;*=%<823$*A&8@=%/*(;#*%II%2$%/*'8%*<%;*8/*=%;'*?8@/*W8$=%'&WA$9* B* f((&* 3%$* /8%$* "0=%;8@A* 8#* 0"* (;;%* %II%2$%/* $%* "0/%$(&8#%&%/)* C8%'$* '%* GKF!* %%/* C%00&'%;8/=#A('%&*<((&8/*(;;%*%II%2$%/*NA0#$%/nC($%/O*3%;'%&*<0&'%/*<%%&=%=%4%/)*"%$*&%;%B 4(/$%*8/I0&"($8%*1%&*%II%2$9*



17

3 Input voor een MKBA kader 7W*8/*300I'#$WA*+*8#*C%#23&%4%/*30%*%%/*GKF!*W8$=%40%&'*'8%/$*$%*<0&'%/*%/*<%;A%*(#1%2$%/* '((&C8@*%%/*&0;*#1%;%/)*8#*3%$*"0=%;8@A*0"*%%/*20/2%1$W%%;*A0#$%/BC($%/*A('%&*$%*0/$<8AA%;%/9*./* '8$*A('%&*<0&'%/*'%*4%î;%/'%*%II%2$%/*C%/0%"'*%/*=%0&'%/'*8/*'8&%2$%)*8/'8&%2$%*%/*%e$%&/%* %II%2$%/*%/*<0&'$*'%*04%&;(1*$W##%/*4%î;%/'%*%II%2$%/*4%&<8@'%&'*N1(&(=&((I*Q9Q)*Q9\*%/*Q9YO9* f%* C%#23&8@4%/* (;;%&%%&#$* '%* 1&0C;%%"I0&"W;%&8/=* N1(&(=&((I* Q9RO* %/* '%* /W;B* %/* 1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%4%/*N1(&(=&((I*Q9+O9*./*1(&(=&((I*Q9-*=%4%/*<%*%/A%;%*20/2;W#8%#9* * `00&* '%* /8%$B8/=%<8@'%* ;%?%&* =%%I$* I8=WW&* Q9R* 01* '%* 40;=%/'%* 1(=8/(* %%/* 04%&?823$* 4(/* '%* %;%A$&828$%8$#"(&A$*%/*3%$*#1;8$#8/=#400&#$%;*4(/*F&8/A30&#$9*

3.1 Probleemformulering g0(;#*8/*300I'#$WA*+*8#*=%20/#$($%%&')*8#*%%/*#23%&1%*(IC(A%/8/=*4(/*3%$*1&0C;%%"*C%3W;1?(("* C8@* 3%$* 0/'%%8'%/* <%;A%* 01;0##8/=%/* "0=%;8@A* ?8@/9* `00&* '%* %/%&=8%"(&A$* <0&'%/* 4((A* '%* 40;=%/'%*'&8%*A%&/'0%;%/*=%I0&"W;%%&']*C%$((;C((&)*#2300/*%/*C%$&0W"* $%* A0"%/* $0$* %%/* 1&%28%?%&%* I0&"W;%&8/=* 4(/* 3%$* 1&0C;%%")* 8#* 3%$* /W$$8=* 0"* '%* $<%%* 0/'%&'%;%/* 4(/* 3%$* 400&#$%;* W8$* %;A((&* $%* 3(;%/9RR* X%$* %%&#$%* 0/'%&'%%;* 4(/* '%* <%$* =(($* 04%&* 3%$* 400&A0"%/* 4(/* 0/=%;8@A%* 20/2W&&%/$8%9* X%$* $<%%'%* '0%;*8#*3%$*01$8"(;8#%&%/*4(/*8/4%#$%&8/=%/*%/*C%3%%&*4(/*3%$*/%$<%&A9**

Het doel van eigendomssplitsing E%* #1;8$#8/=* 4(/* '%* &%=80/(;%* =%j/$%=&%%&'%* %/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/* "0%$* ;%8'%/* $0$* %%/* #$&W2$W&%%;* 0/(I3(/A%;8@A* C%3%%&* 4(/* '%* '8#$&8CW$8%/%$$%/* 400&* %;%A$&828$%8$* %/* =(#* <((&'00&* %%&;8@A%&* 20/2W&&%/$8%* $W##%/* ;%4%&(/28%&#* %/* 1&0'W2%/$%/* 04%&* '%?%* /%$$%/* A(/* 1;(($#48/'%/9* E8$* 3%%I$* /((&*4%&<(23$8/=*%%/*%20/0"8#23*%II828b/$%&%*%/%&=8%400&?8%/8/=*8/*7%'%&;(/'*$0$*=%40;=9*>1*'8$* "0"%/$*8#*3%$*1&0C;%%"*'($*%&*8/*%%/*=%j/$%=&%%&'*%/%&=8%C%'&8@I*1&8AA%;#*C%#$((/*0"*48(*8/4;0%'* 01* 3%$* /%$C%3%%&* 0/%8=%/;8@A%* 20/2W&&%/$8%400&'%;%/* $%* C%3(;%/)* ?0/'%&* '($* '%?%* '00&* '%* $0%?823$30W'%&*$%*(23$%&3(;%/*?8@/9*

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G8/8#$%&8%*4(/*520/0"8#23%*g(A%/*N+,,-)*19*\O* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

18

Figuur 3.1: Splitsingsvoorstel in het kort ! De elektriciteitssector bestaat uit vier schakels: productie, transmissie (hoog! spanning), distributie (midden- en laagspanning) en levering. De transmissie is ! het transport van stroom van elektriciteitscentrale naar het distributienet en een ! aantal grote gebruikers. Distributie is het transport van stroom naar andere ge!bruikers. De handel verzorgt de verkoop van stroom in de groothandelsmarkt en !de eindgebruikersmarkt (voor huishoudens en bedrijven die energie vragen). !Transmissie en distributie zijn gereguleerde activiteiten. Productie en levering is !een vrije, geliberaliseerde markt. !*

* Uiteraard is dit schema een vereenvoudiging van de werkelijkheid, waarin bijvoorbeeld ook import (ongeveer 20 procent van het binnenlands verbruik) en WKK (ongeveer van de binnenlands productie een grote rol spelen). Bron:

Plaatje komt uit NRC 110206

* X8%&C8@*4(;$*$%*'%/A%/*((/*0/'%&#$((/'%*40&"%/*4(/*20/2W&&%/$8%4%&4(;#8/=]* * J6/-A)#'&#'K$ • E00&'($* '%* C%'&8@4%/* 8/* '%* 4%î;%/'%* #23(A%;#* (2$8%I* ?8@/)* ?0W'%/* ?%* 3W/* '0"8/(/$%* 10#8$8%*C8@*'%*$&(/#"8##8%*%/*'%*'8#$&8CW$8%*4(/*#$&00"*AW//%/*"8#C&W8A%/*0"*30=%&%*1&8@?%/* $%*4&(=%/*01*'%*=&00$3(/'%;#B*%/*%8/'=%C&W8A%&#"(&A$9*


INPUT VOOR EEN MKBA KADER

19

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20

Box 3.1: Probleem van magere netbeheerders en de oplossing van Dte

* DTe stelt voor dat de netbeheerders vet worden door meer werkzaamheden zelf uit te voeren:

* Bron:

DTe (2004, p. 5 en p. 7)

* F8@* 3%$* '0%;* 4(/* %8=%/'0"##1;8$#%/* 8#* %%/* ((/$(;* 01"%&A8/=%/* 4(/* C%;(/=9* .#* '%* 20/2W&&%/$8%4%&4(;#8/=* =%20/#$($%%&'* N%4%/$W%%;* 8/* 3%$* CW8$%/;(/'O* 0I* <0&'$* '%?%* 4%&0/'%&#$%;'* 01* C(#8#* 4(/* $3%0&8%m* ./* 30%4%&&%* 8#* 'W8'%;8@A* '($* '%* =%20/#$($%%&'%* '(/* <%;* 4%&0/'%&#$%;'%* 20/2W&&%/$8%4%&4(;#8/=*01$&%%'$*(;#*=%40;=*4(/*3%$*=%j/$%=&%%&'*?8@/*4(/*'%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*%/*8/* 30%4%&&%*'8$*3%$* =%40;=* 8#* 4(/* (/'%&%* A%/"%&A%/* 4(/* '%*"(&A$* N?0(;#* '%* 30=%*20/2%/$&($8%)* '%* 30=%* 04%&#$(1A0#$%/* 400&* 20/#W"%/$%/)* '%* C%1%&A$%* 8"10&$2(1(28$%8$)* %$2Om* 8/* 0/?%* 0=%/* 8#* %&* $8@'%/#* 3%$* <%$=%48/=#1&02%#* 4(/* '%* #1;8$#8/=* =%%/* 0/'%&?0%A* =%'((/* '($* '%?%* 4&(=%/* C%(/$<00&'9*>0A*8#*3%$*C%;(/=&8@A*'($*=0%'*'00&'(23$*N3('O*"0%$N%/O*<0&'%/*<%;A%*"0=%;8@A%* (4%&%23$#%*%II%2$%/*4(/*%8=%/'0"##1;8$#8/=*W8$=((/9*G%$*(/'%&%*<00&'%/]*;%8'$*#1;8$#8/=*(;$8@'*$0$* "%%&* 20/2W&&%/$8%m* g0* /%%)* <%;A%* ((/4W;;%/'%* "(($&%=%;%/* ?8@/* '(/* /0'8=* 0"* '%* (4%&%23$#* %II%2$%/*$%*"8$8=%&%/m** * E((&/((#$*=%;'%/*/0=*%%/*((/$(;*A;%8/%&%*(#1%2$%/9*a%/*%%&#$%*=%%I$*'%*"8/8#$%&*((/*'($*00A*"%$* 4%&'%&* ((/#23%&18/=* 4(/* 3%$* $0%?823$* 01* 0/(I3(/A%;8@A* /%$C%3%%&* '%* 8+'(* C;8@I$* C%#$((/* 01* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK


21

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Het doel van de overdracht vanaf 110 kV naar TenneT X%$* '0%;* 4(/* '%* 04%&'&(23$* 4(/* 3%$* C%3%%&* 4(/* /%$$%/* 4(/* RR,* %/* RY,* A`* ((/* a%//%a* 8#* 3%$* 01$8"(;8#%&%/*4(/*8/4%#$%&8/=%/*%/*C%3%%&*4(/*3%$*/%$<%&A9*>1$8"((;*<8;*?%==%/*'($*W8$%8/'%;8@A* '%*C%$&0W
3.2 Nulalternatief en beleidsalternatieven H(&(=&((I* Q9R* ;(($* ?8%/* '($* %&* (23$%&* 3%$* 3W8'8=%* #1;8$#8/=#400&#$%;* %8=%/;8@A* $<%%* '0%;#$%;;8/=%/* #23W8;* =((/)* /("%;8@A* NRO* 3%$* 4%&C%$%&%/* 4(/* '%* "(&A$0&'%/8/=* '00&* %8=%/'0"##1;8$#8/=* %/* 3%$* 2&%b&%/* 4(/* 4%$$%* /%$C%3%%&'%&#* %/* N+O* 3%$* 01$8"(;8#%&%/* 4(/* 8/4%#$%&8/=%/* %/* C%3%%&* 4(/* 3%$* /%$<%&A9* E%?%* '0%;#$%;;8/=%/* AW//%/* 01* 4%î;%/'%* "(/8%&%/* <0&'%/* C%&%8A$9* g0* 8#* #1;8$#%/* 4(/* 3%$* %8=%/'0"* 4(/* '%* %/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/* cc/* 4(/* '%* "0=%;8@A%* C%;%8'#(;$%&/($8%4%/* '8%* '%* 10;8$8%A*3%%I$*(;#*3%$*=(($*0"*3%$*4%&C%$%&%/*4(/*'%*0&'%/8/=*4(/*'%*%/%&=8%"(&A$9*5&*?8@/*%23$%&* "%%&*"0=%;8@A3%'%/*0"*'%*3W8'8=%*0&'%/8/=*4(/*'%*"(&A$*$%*4%&C%$%&%/9*g0(;#*%%&'%&*=%?%=')*8#* C8@*3%$*C%1(;%/*4(/*'%*((/$&%AA%;8@A3%8'*4(/*'%*#1;8$#8/=*'%*((/$&%AA%;8@A3%8'*4(/*'%*(;$%&/($8%4%/* %4%/?%%&*4(/*C%;(/=9** * X%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*8#*'%*3W8'8=%*#8$W($8%)*"((&*?0(;#*<%*8/*300I'#$WA*+*?(=%/)*8#*3%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I* /8%$*d/8A#*'0%/^*0I**dC%#$((/'*C%;%8'^9*X%$*8#*8""%&#*/8%$*d%%&;8@A^*0"*(;#*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*%%/*#8$W($8%* $%*A8%?%/*<((&8/*(;;%*1&0C;%"%/*0/4%&"8/'%&'*C;8@4%/*C%#$((/)*<(/$*'(/*A0"$*3%$*(;$%&/($8%I*%&*(;* #/%;*C%$%&*W8$9*E((&0"*A8%?%/*<%*(;#*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*'%*3W8'8=%*#8$W($8%*<((&C8@*'%*L."1;%"%/$($8%* %/* ./$%&4%/$8%<%$M)* 0I<%;* L.k.M* <%$* <0&'$* =%j"1;%"%/$%%&'* %/* $0%=%1(#$9* >1* '8$* "0"%/$* ?8@/* /0=* /8%$* (;;%* 0/'%&'%;%/* 4(/* '%?%* <%$* $0%=%1(#$* %/* '((&0"* ;8@A$* 3%$* %%/* 4%&#$(/'8=* /W;(;$%&/($8%I*0"*%%&#$*%&4(&8/=*01*$%*'0%/*"%$*'%*<%&A8/=*4(/*'%?%*/8%W<%*<%$9*E%*.k.*<%$* 4(/*@W/8*4(/*+,,\*#$&%A$%*%&$0%*'%*$<%%'%*'((&0140;=%/'%*5W&01%#%*&823$;8@/%/*400&*%;%A$&828$%8$* %/*=(#**$%*8"1;%"%/$%&%/)*3%$*$0%?823$*01*3%$*/%$C%3%%&*((/*$%*#23%&1%/*%/*"(($&%=%;%/*$%*/%"%/* 0"* '%* A<(;8$%8$* 4(/* '%* %;%A$&828$%8$#B* %/* =(#/%$$%/* $%* <((&C0&=%/9* E%?%* <%$* #23%1$* /0=* 4%&'%&=((/'%* $0%?823$30W'%/'%* C%40%='3%'%/* 400&* Ea%* %/* C%1(;8/=%/* $%/* ((/?8%/* 4(/* ******************************************************** R+**

g8%*G8/8#$%&8%*4(/*520/0"8#23%*?(A%/*N+,,\()*119*QB\O9* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

22

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*

VOLLEDIGE TOEPASSING VAN DE HUIDIGE I&I WETGEVING / ‘FINE TUNING’

Nulalternatief Alternatief met vette netbeheerder Alternatief splitsing Alternatief TenneT Alternatief maximaal

VETTE NETBEHEERDER

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EIGENDOMSSPLITSING

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OVERDRACHT VAN NETTEN 110 KV EN HOGER NAAR TENNET

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* a%&* 4%&=%;8@A8/=* =%4%/* <%* 8/* C0e* Q9+* '%* 48%&* 4(&8(/$%/* 0/'%%8'%/)* %%/* /W;4(&8(/$* %/* '&8%* 1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%4%/)*'8%*3%$*JHF*N+,,YO*8/*3((&*(/(;D#%*0/'%%8''%9* * Box 3.2: Alternatieven van het CPB (2005) Reference situation: - Legal-Lean: legal unbundling with lean network managers, which is the current structure of most energy-distribution firms. Three alternatives: - Legal-Fat: legal unbundling with fat network managers, i.e. network firms with a proper allocation of tasks and the economic ownership of their assets, without independent financing capabilities; - Legal-Fat Plus: legal unbundling with fat network managers and a financial ring fence between the network and commercial activities; - Ownership: Full ownership unbundling of the network and commercial activities.

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23

3.3 Overzicht van de effecten: eigendomssplitsing en de creatie van een vette netbeheerder ./* '%?%* 1(&(=&((I* C%#23&8@4%/* <%* '%* %II%2$%/* 4(/* '%* %8=%/'0"##1;8$#8/=* %/* '%* 2&%($8%* 4(/* %%/* 4%$$%*/%$C%3%%&'%&9*./*0/'%&#$((/'%*I8=WW&*=%4%/*<%*((/*30%*4%&0/'%&#$%;'%*'%*C($%/*%/*A0#$%/* 4(/*'8$*400&#$%;*0/$#$((/9* * Figuur 3.2: Het ontstaan van de veronderstelde effecten als gevolg van het splitsingsvoorstel

* * * * * Splitsingsvoorstel * * * * * * * * * * *

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Herstructureren geïntegreerde bedrijven + meer inbesteden door netbedrijf

Ontstaan van kosten

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Mogelijk minder concurrentievervalsing

Betere focus netwerkbedrijven + betere controle door DTe

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? Meer toetreding - productie - levering ?

Meer capaciteit (meer aanbod)

Prijsdaling

Meer concurrentie

meer efficiëntie bij net bedrijven

Onzekerheden

Prijsdaling

Ontstaan baten

Noot: zie pagina 20 voor een (korte) bespreking van de onzekerheden rond het optreden van deze effecten

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24

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25

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26

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Eénmalige en structurele reorganisatiekosten E%*#1;8$#8/=*4(/*'%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*%/*'%*4%&%8#$%*2&%($8%*4(/*%%/*4%$$%*/%$C%3%%&'%&*C%$%A%/$* 3%%;*20/2&%%$*'($*'%*0&=(/8#($8%*4(/*'%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*(/'%&#*"0%$]*0&=(/8#($0&8#23%*%%/3%'%/* "0%$%/* =%<8@?8='* <0&'%/)* .JaB#D#$%"%/* "0%$%/* <0&'%/* ((/=%1(#$)* "%&A/("%/* 4%&(/'%&%/)* ;01%/'%*20/$&(2$%/*"0%$%/*(I=%3(/'%;'*<0&'%/9*`%&'%&*3%%I$*'8$*=%40;=%/*400&*'%*3W8#4%#$8/=* %/* 3%$* 1%�/%%;9+Q* g0* ?W;;%/* %&* (1(&$%* 4%#$8=8/=%/* /0'8=* ?8@/* 400&* 3%$* /%$<%&AB* %/* ;%4%&8/=#C%'&8@4%/)* ?(;* %%/* '%%;* 4(/* 3%$* 1%�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a)* H%�/%%;)* H&0=&(""("(/(=%"%/$)* XW8#4%#$8/=)* >&=(/8#($8%* %/* 1&02%##%/)*./A001)*68/(/28b/*%/*uW&8'8#23%*?(A%/9*E%*#$&W2$W&%;%*A0#$%/*C%'&(=%/*400&*'%*=%3%;%* #%2$0&*"(e8"((;*$W##%/*'%*QY,*%/*\-,*"8;@0%/*5W&09*E%*300I'10#$%/*38%&4(/*?8@/]*.Ja)*:W110&$)* E8&%2$8%)*68/(/28b/*%/*H%�/%%;*%/*>&=(/8#($8%9*E%?%*%%/"(;8=%*%/*#$&W2$W&%;%*#1;8$#8/=#A0#$%/* 3%CC%/*400&/("%;8@A*C%$&%AA8/=*01*'%*(2$848$%8$%/*4(/*'%*30;'8/=9*E%*A0#$%/*4(/*'%*0/$4;%23$8/=* ******************************************************** +R** ++**

+Q** +\**

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28

4(/* 01%&($80/%;%* A0#$%/* 4(/* 3%$* #1;8$#8/=#<%$#400&#$%;* ?8@/* ?%%&* C%1%&A$9* a(C%;* Q9+* =%%I$* '%* 0/'%&4%&'%;8/=*4(/*'%*A0#$%/*40;=%/#*E%;08$$%*<%%&9** Tabel 3.2: Reorganisatiekosten volgens Deloitte EENMALIGE REORGANISATIEKOSTEN

Splitsen DTe advies I&I wet Bron:

STRUCTURELE REORGANISATIEKOSTEN

LAAG

HOOG

LAAG

HOOG

4 61 7

6 85 9

5 345 0

5 455 0

Deloitte (2005)

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Effecten op de contracten van de Cross border leases a%/*=%40;=%*4(/*'%*#1;8$#8/=*4(/*'%*/%$<%&AC%'&8@4%/*4(/*'%*20""%&28b;%*(2$848$%8$%/*AW//%/*'%* J&0##* F0&'%&* i%(#%#* NJFiO* '8%* %%/* '%%;* 4(/* '%* %/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/* 01* 3W/* /%$$%/* %/* 1&0'W2$8%2(1(28$%8$* 3%CC%/* (I=%#;0$%/)* 8/* =%4((&* A0"%/9* E8$* 8#* %8=%/;8@A* %%/* 0/'%&'%%;* 4(/* '%* %%/"(;8=%*&%0&=(/8#($8%A0#$%/)*"((&*'00&'($*'8$*%II%2$*8/*10$%/$8%*%&=*=&00$*8#)*<0&'$*'8$*"%%#$(;* (1(&$*"%%=%/0"%/9** * E%* JFi^#* ?8@/* %8=%/;8@A* %%/* =&0$%* 04%&'&(23$9* X%$* 1&8/281%* 4(/* '%* JFi^#* 8#* %%/* C%;(#$8/=4&8@#$%;;8/=* 400&* !"%&8A((/#%* C%;%==%&#* '00&* 3%$* A01%/* %/* $%&W=4%&3W&%/* 4(/* 4(#$%* (2$84(9* E8$* C%;(#$8/=400&'%%;* 3%CC%/* '%* !"%&8A((/#%* C%;%==%&#* =%'%%;'* "%$* '%* 7%'%&;(/'#%* %/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/* N(/'%&#* '%'%/* '8%* W8$%&((&'* /8%$* "%%O9* _%b%;* 4%&(/'%&'%* %&* /8A#]* %&* <0&'$* /8%$* "%%&*0I*"8/'%&*=%j/4%#$%%&')*/023*"%%&*0I*"8/'%&*=%1&0'W2%%&')*/023*01*(/'%&%*"(/8%&9*./*%%/* ******************************************************** +Y** +-**

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29

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30

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Risico van juridische zaken door onteigening E%* 1;(//%/* 4(/* "8/8#$%&* F&8/A"(/* ?W;;%/* 8/=&8@1%/* 8/* %8=%/'0"#4%&30W'8/=%/9* E($* 8#* /8%$* $0%=%#$((/* 8/'8%/* '($* #$&8@'* 01;%4%&$* "%$* IW/'("%/$%;%* `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

Kosten van het vervaardigen van het splitsingsvoorstel X%$*4%&4((&'8=%/*%/*04%&;%==%/*04%&*3%$*#1;8$#8/=#400&#$%;*3%%I$*3%$*(I=%;01%/*@((&*4%%;*"%/#%/* C%?8==%30W'%/]* ("C$%/(&%/*01* 3%$* "8/8#$%&8%* 4(/*5g)* '%* a<%%'%* K("%&)* '%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/)* %/* @W&8#$%/)* %20/0"%/* %/* 20/#W;$(/$#* ((/* <8%* 0/'%&?0%A* <%&'* W8$C%#$%%'9* E8$* ?8@/* A0#$%/* N%/* 400&*%%/*'%%;*3%&4%&'%;8/=#%II%2$%/O9* *

3.3.2 Indirecte effecten E%*8/'8&%2$%*%II%2$%/)*'($*<8;*?%==%/*'%*W8$#$&(;8/=#%II%2$%/)*C%$&%II%/]* * ******************************************************** +T**

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5)+'(%#""#6))*+'3%+'(%#,23-1'-&'7))#0%'%&'3"%'.#""+'-,'3%+8' :0"#* <0&'$* ((/=%=%4%/* '($* =%#1;8$#$%* C%'&8@4%/* "%%&* <((&'%* 4%&$%=%/<00&'8=%/* '(/* 0/=%#1;8$#$%*C%'&8@4%/9*78%$*3%;%"((;*'W8'%;8@A*8#*<((&*'8$*400&'%%;*1&%28%#*'00&*0/$#$(($]* * • X%$*/%$C%'&8@I*%/*'%*20""%&28b;%*(2$848$%8$%/*3%CC%/*8%'%&*%%/*(/'%&*&8#820*1&0I8%;9*F%;%==%&#* C%1(;%/* =&((=* ?%;I* '%* 20"C8/($8%* 4(/* &8#820^#* 8/* 3W/* C%;%==8/=#10&$%I%W8;;%9* E((&'00&* ?8@/* C%;%==%&#*C%&%8'*0"*"%%&*$%*C%$(;%/*400&*$<%%*(I?0/'%&;8@A%*C%'&8@4%/*"%$*8%'%&*%%/*%8=%/* &8#820*'(/*%%/*C%;%==8/=*<((&*3%$*&8#820*(;*8/*=%20"C8/%%&'*8#9*>I*'8$*%II%2$*%&*8/*1&(A$8@A*8#*%/* 30%*=&00$*3%$*8#)*8#*/8%$*'W8'%;8@A9*a%/*%%&#$%*?8@/*C%;%==%&#*=%<%/'*0"*&8#820^#*=%100;'*((/*$%* #23(II%/*N%%/*I0/'#*8#*%%/*4%%;*=%C&W8A$*8/#$&W"%/$*'00&*C%;%==%&#*0"*&8#820^#*8/*$%*100;%/O9* g%* ?8@/* 'W#* C%&%8'* =%20"C8/%%&'%* &8#820^#* $%* A01%/9* a%/* $<%%'%* AW//%/* =&0$%* C%;%==%&#* C%#;W8$%/* 3%$* =%j/$%=&%%&'%* C%'&8@I* $%* A01%/* %/* ?%;I* '%* $0A0* 01* $%* #1;8$#%/9* g0;(/=* %&* %%/* 400&'%%;*$%*C%3(;%/*8#*'00&*(;#*%8=%/((&*?%;I*$%*C%#;W8$%/*$%*#1;8$#%/*N0"'($*'%*&8#820^#*'(/*W8$* %;A((&* <0&'%/* =%3((;'O* '(/* ?W;;%/* =&0$%* C%;%==%&#* $%=%/* %;A((&* 01C8%'%/* %/* ?(;* '%* 1&8@#* #$8@=%/9* K0&$0")* '%* &W8"$%* 400&* 3%%;* =&0$%* 1&8@#4%î;%/* $W##%/* =%j/$%=&%%&'* %/* =%#1;8$#$* ;8@A$*C%1%&A$%*$%*?8@/9** • X%$* <((&'%4%î* $W##%/* %%/* =%j/$%=&%%&'*%/* $<%%* =%#1;8$#$%* C%'&8@4%/* A(/* 0/$#$((/* '00&* A0#$%/*%/*C($%/*'8%*%;'%&#*(;*"%%=%/0"%/*?8@/]*?0(;#*'%*C%$%&%*I02W#*01*"%%&*%II828b/$8%*C8@* (I=%#1;8$#$%*/%$C%'&8@4%/9*E%?%*00A*"%%/%"%/*C8@*'%*<((&'%*;%4%&$*%%/*'WCC%;$%;;8/=*8/*%%/* GKF!*01)*<($*%%/*4%&$%A%/'*C%%;'*=%%I$9* •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• >0A* 8#* 3%$* "0=%;8@A*'($* "%%&* 1(&$8@%/* 8/* #$(($* ?8@/* 0"*%%/* '%%;* 4(/* %%/* =%#1;8$#$* C%'&8@I* $%* A01%/*'(/*%&*C%'&8@4%/*8/*#$(($*?8@/*0"*3%$*=%3%%;*$%*A01%/9*X8%&'00&*A(/*'%*04%&/("%#0"* 400&* 3%$* =%j/$%=&%%&'%* C%'&8@I* ;(=%&* ?8@/* '(/* '%* #0"* 4(/* '%* 04%&/("%#0""%/* 4(/* '%* =%#1;8$#$%*'%;%/9** * K0&$0")* "0"%/$%%;* 8#* /0=* 0/'W8'%;8@A* <%;A* 4%î* %&* 8/* <((&'%* 8#* $W##%/* =%#1;8$#$%* %/* /8%$B =%#1;8$#$%* C%'&8@4%/9* 5%/* =&0/'8=%*(/(;D#%* 4(/*'%* ((//("%#* 4(/* :%qW08(* ;8@A$* =%?8%/* 3%$* C%;(/=* 400&*'%*W8$A0"#$*'(/*00A*<%/#%;8@A9**

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33

5)&&%%#'*)&'3"%(%%1'.%2),3+'7"#0%&8' 5%/* 4(/* '%* 400&'%;%/* 4(/* #1;8$#8/=* 8#* '($* '%* %/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/* =%1&84($8#%%&'* AW//%/* <0&'%/* ?0/'%&*'($*3%$*/%$<%&A*8/*CW8$%/;(/'#%*3(/'%/*A0"$9*E%*7%'%&;(/'#%*;(=%&%*04%&3%'%/*AW//%/* ?823* $%&W=$&%AA%/* W8$* '%* 20""%&28b;%* %/%&=8%(2$848$%8$%/* 4(/* ;%4%&8/=* %/* 1&0'W2$8%)* 8/* '%* =%%#$* 4(/* '%* <%$* 68/(/28%&8/=* '%2%/$&(;%* 04%&3%'%/* %/* '%* ((/'%%;30W'%&#* A&8@=%/* "%%&* C%#238AA8/=#&W8"$%* A&8@=%/* 04%&* 3W/* I8/(/28b;%* "8''%;%/* '8%* /W* I%8$%;8@A* ?8@/* 01=%#;0$%/* 8/* '%* =%j/$%=&%%&'%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/9QR* E8$* 8#*%%/* 04%&'&(23$* 4(/*'%* C%;%==%&#* '8%* '%* ((/'%;%/* A01%/* /((&*'%*;0A(;%*04%&3%%/*'8%*/W*%8=%/((&*?8@/*%/*;%WA%*'8/=%/*"%$*3%$*=%;'*=((/*'0%/9** * G%&A* 38%&C8@* <%;* 01* '($* '%* <((&'%* 4(/* %%/* C%'&8@I* N0/=%4%%&O* =%;8@A* 8#* ((/* '%* 4%&'8#20/$%%&'%* $0%A0"#$8=%* #$&00"* 4(/* '848'%/'W8$A%&8/=%/9* 5%/* 4%&A001* /W* =(($* '(/* 00A* =%1((&'* "%$* %%/* =%;8@A%*4%&"8/'%&8/=*8/*'%*$0%A0"#$9*E%*4%&A01%/'%*1(&$8@*<0&'$*/((&*4%&<(23$8/=*'(/*00A*/8%$* &8@A%&)*'%*A01%/'%*1(&$8@*/8%$*(&"%&9*5%/*W8$?0/'%&8/=*8#*%&*400&*'8%*A01%&#*'8%*4%&#$(/'*3%CC%/* 4(/*'%*"(&A$*4(/*3%$*C%'&8@I*'($*?%*04%&/%"%/*%/*3%$*%II828b/$%&*AW//%/*"(A%/9*./*<%;A%*"($%* '($*38%&*3%$*=%4(;*8#)*8#*0/?%A%&*0"'($*CW8$%/;(/'#%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*"%$*20""%&28b;%*C%;(/=%/* /8%$*8/*((/"%&A8/=*A0"%/*0"*'%*C%'&8@4%/*04%&*$%*/%"%/*%/*4%%;*4(/*'%*'8#$&8CW$8%C%'&8@4%/*8/* 5W&01(*4%&$8A((;*=%j/$%=&%%&'*?8@/*%/*'W#*(I4(;;%/*(;#*A01%&9** *

9)$%&()++%&0' X%$*8#*/8%$*'W8'%;8@A*30%*=&00$*3%$*%II%2$*8#9*G023$*3%$*%&*'(('<%&A%;8@A*?8@/*'(/*?8@/*400&(;*'%* 4%î;%/* $W##%/* '%* (;$%&/($8%4%/* 4(/* C%;(/=* %/* "0%$* 01=%1(#$* <0&'%/* 400&* 'WCC%;$%;;8/=%/* N4%&A001*=(($*(;$8@'*=%1((&'*"%$*A001O*<((&'00&*4%&A001*%%/*04%&'&(23$*8#9* *

Effecten op de internationale concurrentiepositie van de grootverbruikers energie ./'8%/*'00&*3%$*#1;8$#8/=400&#$%;*'%*"(&A$*8/'%&'(('*20/2W&&%&%/'%&*<0&'$)*%/*'%*1&8@?%/*'(;%/)* '(/* 3%%I$* '8$* %%/* 400&'%%;* 400&* 1&0'W2%/$%/* '8%* 4%%;* #$&00"* =%C&W8A%/]* 3W/* 8/$%&/($80/(;%* 20/2W&&%/$8%10#8$8%*?(;*4%&C%$%&%/9*E8$*A(/*=%"%$%/*<0&'%/*'00&*$%*A8@A%/*/((&*%%/*$0%/("%*4(/* '%*1&0'W2$8%)*$0%=%40%='%*<((&'%*0I*%e10&$*4(/*'%?%*=&00$4%&C&W8A% * *

Precedentwerking ‘vergaande’ splitsingsvoorstel 5%/* ;(($#$%* 8/'8&%2$* %II%2$* <0&'$* 4%&00&?((A$* '00&'($* 3%$* #1;8$#8/=#400&#$%;* 4%&'%&* =(($* '(/* 4%&1;823$*8#*'00&*5W&01%#%*&823$;8@/%/9*E8$*=(($*8/*$%=%/*3%$*(;=%"%/%*7%'%&;(/'#%*W8$=(/=#1W/$* '($* '%* 8"1;%"%/$($8%* 4(/*5l* &823$;8@/%/* /8%$* 4%&'%&* =(($* '(/* #$&8A$* /00'?(A%;8@A9*E8$*<(#* (;*?0* 400&* '%* ./'W#$&8%C&8%I* N"8/8#$%&8%* 4(/* 520/0"8#23%* g(A%/)* +,,\O* W8$A<(")* <((&8/* '8$* <%&'* =%I0&"W;%%&'* (;#]* L>"* %e$&(* ('"8/8#$&($8%4%* ;(#$%/* %/* N/(;%48/=#OA0#$%/* $%* 400&A0"%/* ?(;* 3%$* A(C8/%$*/8%W<%*5lB<%$B*%/*&%=%;=%48/=*8/*1&8/281%*cc/B01Bcc/*04%&/%"%/9*X%$*A(C8/%$*?(;*'((&* 8/* 8%'%&* =%4(;* =%%/* d/($80/(;%* A01^* C04%/01* ?%$$%/)* $%/?8@* %%/* #1%28I8%A* 7%'%&;(/'#* 1&0C;%%"* '((&0"* 4&((=$9M* E8$* 8#* =%%/* /('%%;* 400&* '%* %;%A$&828$%8$#C%'&8@4%/)* "((&* 400&* 3%$* 7%'%&;(/'#%* C%'&8@I#;%4%/*(;#*=%3%%;)*0"'($*3%$*(I<8@A%/*4(/*'%?%*C%;%8'#;8@/*C%$%A%/$*'($*%&*400&*C%'&8@4%/* ******************************************************** QR**

*

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34

"%%&*0/?%A%&3%8'*8#*04%&*$%*4%&<(23$%/*04%&3%8'#8/=&8@1%/9*E%?%*0/?%A%&3%8'*3%%I$*%%/*/%=($8%I* %II%2$*01*'%*8/4%#$%&8/=%/9* *

3.3.3 Externe effecten 5&*8#*cc/*%e$%&/*%II%2$]*'%*%II%2$%/*4(/*3%$*400&#$%;*01*3%$*"8;8%W9*:1;8$#8/=*3%%I$*"0=%;8@A*8/4;0%'* 01* '%* #/%;3%8'* <((&"%%* <(&"$%BA&(23$BA011%;8/=* NfKKO* 8/* 3%$* %;%A$&828$%8$##D#$%%"* 8/=%1(#$* A(/*<0&'%/9Q+*>"'($*fKK*%;%A$&828$%8$*01<%A$*"%$*%%/*300=*&%/'%"%/$*N(;#*'%*<(&"$%*/W$$8=* C&W8AC((&* 8#* 8/* C8@400&C%%;'* '%* 1&02%#8/'W#$&8%* 0I* 8/* #$('#4%&<(&"8/=O* <0&'$* %&* &%;($8%I* <%8/8=* J>+*W8$=%#$0$%/9*G0"%/$%%;*8#*%&*%23$%&*%%/*"(e8"W"*30%4%%;3%8'*'8%*1%&*;(/'*W8$=%#$0$%/*"(=* <0&'%/9*5%/*#$8@=8/=*4(/*'%*J>+*W8$#$00$*8/*'%*%/%&=8%#%2$0&*;%8'$*$0$*%%/*30=%&%*C%#1(&8/=$(&=%$* %;'% *X%$*"8;8%W%II%2$*8#*'W#*/W;)*%23$%&*'%*A0#$%/*0"*/8%$*"%%&*'(/*'%*$(&=%$*W8$*$%*#$0$%/*?8@/* 30=%&9* E%?%*<0&'%/* 48(* '%*"(&A$* 4%&3(/'%;']* '%* #$8@=8/=* 4(/* '%* J>+* "((;* '%* J>+* 1&8@#* 01* '%* "(&A$*400&*4%&3(/'%;C(&%*&%23$%/*=%%I$*38%&*'(/*'%*%e$&(*A0#$%/*'8%*'%*#("%/;%48/=*"0%$*"(A%/* (;#*#1;8$#8/=*;%8'$*$0$*;(=%&%*8/40%&8/=##/%;3%8'*4(/*%II828b/$%*"8;8%W$%23/8%A%/9* *

3.3.4 Herverdelingseffecten a0$* #;0$* C%#23&8@4%/* <%* %%/* ((/$(;* 3%&4%&'%;8/=#%II%2$%/9* F8@* "(&A$0&'%/8/=* 4(/* '%* %;%A$&828$%8$#"(&A$*;8@A%/*'%*=&0%1%/*4(/*C%;(/=]* * • !(/'%%;30W'%&#* N1&048/28%#* %/* =%"%%/$%/O* %/* 8/<0/%&#*4(/* =%"%%/$%/* %/* 1&048/28%#* "%$* ((/'%;%/*4%&#W#*(;;%*7%'%&;(/'#%*3W8#30W'%/#h* • 78%W<%*$0%$&%'%&#*4%&#W#*C%#$((/'%*C%'&8@4%/h* • F%'&8@4%/*%/*3W8#30W'%/#h* • FW8$%/;(/'#%*8/4%#$%%&'%&#*N"0=%;8@A%*04%&/("%#*%/*'%*JFi^#Oh* • >4%&3%8'*N%/*$0%?823$30W'%&O9* * f%*C%#23&8@4%/*38%&0/'%&*%/A%;%*3%&4%&'%;8/=#%II%2$%/9* *

Hogere dan wel lagere prijzen voor zover deze niet met hogere of lagere kosten samenhangen E00&* "%%&* "(&A$<%&A8/=* =((/* '%* 1&8@?%/* 0";((=9* E8$* A(/* '00&* $<%%* '8/=%/* A0"%/]* "%%&* %II828b/$8%)*%/*'00&*%%/*(I/("%*4(/*'%*"(&=%*'8%*;%4%&(/28%&#*%/*1&0'W2%/$%/*AW//%/*"(A%/9*!;#* (;;%%/*/((&*'%*1&8@#'(;8/=*4(/*'%*(I/%"%&#*N3W8#30W'%/#*%/*C%'&8@4%/O*<0&'$*=%A%A%/*'(/*;8@A$*'8$* ;0W$%&*%%/*<%;4((&$#<8/#$)*%23$%&*'(/*8#*3%$*4%&;8%#*400&*'%*%8=%/(&%/*4(/*'%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*/8%$* ?823$C((&9*H%&*#(;'0*;%8'$*%%/*4%&;(=8/=*4(/*'%*"(&=%*/8%$*$0$*%%/*%4%/*=&0$%*<%;4((&$#<8/#$)*"((&* $0$*3%&4%&'%;8/=* '((&4(/9* `00&* ?04%&* '%*20/2W&&%/$8%'&WA* ;%8'$* $0$*%%/* 4%&C%$%&'%*%II828b/$8%* 8#* <%;* #1&(A%* 4(/* %%/* <%;4((&$#4%&30=8/=* N'%* $((&$* <0&'$* 4%&=&00$)* '%&* &%A%/8/=* '((;$* %/* "%/#%/* 30W'%/*=%;'*04%&*400&*(/'%&%*'8/=%/O9* * ******************************************************** Q+**

`00&* "82&0BfKK* N8/* 3W8?%/O* =%;'$* "0=%;8@A* %%/* (1(&$* 4%&3((;9* E%?%* (/(;D#%* 8#* 38%&* /0=* /8%$* =%"((A$* 0"'($*'8$*"0"%/$%%;*/0=*("1%&*400&A0"$9**



35

Fiscale effecten G0=%;8@A* 3%%I$* '%* #1;8$#8/=* =&0$%* I8#2(;%* =%40;=%/* 400&* '%* C%'&8@4%/9* E8$* A(/* "((&* 30%I$* /8%$)* C8@400&C%%;'*'00&*4%&C&%A8/=*4(/*%%/*I8#2(;%*%%/3%8'*0I*'00&*'%*04%&'&(23$*4(/*(2$84(*0I*1(##84(9* E00&*"8''%;* 4(/* $<%%*C%1(;8/=%/* 8#* =%&%=%;'* '($*?0<%;* /%=($8%4%* (;#* 10#8$8%4%* I8#2(;%*=%40;=%/* '8%* '8&%2$* <0&'%/* 4%&00&?((A$* '00&* '8$* <%$#400&#$%;* <0&'%/* <%==%/0"%/9* Z%/0%"'%* C%1(;8/=%/*3%CC%/*C%$&%AA8/=*01*'%*4%//00$#23(1#C%;(#$8/=*%/*'%*04%&'&(23$#C%;(#$8/=9QQ*./*3%$* =%4(;* '($* %&* I8#2(;%* =%40;=%/* ?8@/)* '(/* 8#* '8$* %%/* 04%&'&(23$]* '%* %/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/* N%/* 'W#* 3W/* ((/'%%;30W'%&#*=((/*%&01*(23$%&W8$*"%$*3%$*C%'&(=*'($*?%*"%%&*((/*C%;(#$8/=*"0%$%/*C%$(;%/9*E%* I8#2W#*N%/*'W#*(;;%*CW&=%&#*4(/*7%'%&;(/'O*=((/*%&*"%$*'%*%e$&(*C%;(#$8/=#01C&%/=#$*01*400&W8$9* X%$*#(;'0*400&*'%*F`*7%'%&;(/'*8#*/W;9* *

3.4 Overzicht van de effecten: overdracht van het transmissienet vanaf 110 kV aan TenneT E%* <%$* C%3%;#$* C%3(;4%* %8=%/'0"##1;8$#8/=* %/* '%* 2&%($8%* 4(/* %%/* 4%$$%* /%$C%3%%&'%&* $%4%/#* '%* 04%&'&(23$* 4(/* 3%$* C%3%%&* 4(/* /%$$%/* 4(/* RR,* %/* RY,* A`* ((/* '%* C%3%%&'%&* 4(/* 3%$* ;(/'%;8@A* 300=#1(//8/=#/%$* Na%//%aO9* ./* '%?%* 1(&(=&((I* C%#23&8@4%/* <%* '%* 4%&<(23$%* %II%2$%/* 4(/* '%* 04%&'&(23$*4(/*3%$*$&(/#"8##8%/%$*4(/(I*RR,*A`*((/*a%//%a9*./*0/'%&#$((/'%*I8=WW&*=%4%/*<%* ((/*30%*'%*C($%/*%/*A0#$%/*4(/*'8$*400&#$%;*?0W'%/*0/$#$((/9* * Figuur 3.3: Het ontstaan van mogelijke effecten als gevolg van de overdracht

* Beter ontwerp van Overdracht Betrouwbaarheid * het net door ? ? Ontstaan van één Kwaliteitstransmissienet > omhoog (minder integrale blik * beheerorganisatie verbetering 110 kV en kortere + snellere actie in * storingen) geval van nood * * * * Onzekerheden: wie Ontstaan van Ontstaan van * investeert beter? kosten baten * * E%*$&(/#"8##8%/%$$%/*'8%*04%&=%'&(=%/*?W;;%/*<0&'%/*((/*a%//%a*?8@/*/W*8/*3(/'%/*4(/*#1%;%&#* (;#* 7W0/)* 5/%20* %/* 5##%/$9* 7($80/(;8#($8%* 4(/* '8$* '%%;* 4(/* 3%$* 300=#1(//8/=#/%$* A0#$* 28&2(* +* "8;@(&'* %W&09* >"'($* 3%$* 38%&* 04%&* 4%%;* =%;'* =(($)* 8#* '%* 4&((=* <($* '%?%* d8/4%#$%&8/=^* 01;%4%&$* C%;(/=&8@A9Q\* ./* 1(&(=&((I* Q9\9R* C%#23&8@4%/* <%* '%* '8&%2$%* %II%2$%/* %/* 8/* 1(&(=&((I* Q9\9+* '%* 8/'8&%2$%* %II%2$%/* N<%* ?8%/* =%%/* %e$%&/%* %II%2$%/O9* J&W28((;* 38%&C8@* 8#* 00A* 30%* '%?%* 04%&'&(23$* ******************************************************** QQ** Q\**

G8/8#$%&8%*400&*520/0"8#23%*g(A%/*N+,,-)*1QYO9* K%"(*3%%I$*0/'%&?0%A*=%'((/*/((&*'%*%II%2$%/*4(/*%%/*04%&'&(23$*4(/*3%$*/%$*4(/(I*Y,*A`*N8/*01'&(23$* 4(/*a%//%aO9* * K5G!*N+,,\O)$D6+'(,/6&'#&&#'$0'$P#-#6:+'-K$QR$8S$#'$*/.#6)*(W$%W&]*!9Z9*u0/=%18%&)*!&/3%")*Q,*/04%"C%&* +,,\)*!&/3%"9* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

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40&"=%=%4%/* <0&'$)* C8@400&C%%;'* '00&* "8''%;* 4(/* %8=%/'0"#04%&'&(23$* 0I* "%$* %%/* C%3%%%&%%/A0"#$*<((&C8@*'%*3W8'8=%*%8=%/(&%/*3%$*C%?8$*30W'%/9** *

3.4.1 Directe effecten f%* #23%$#%/* %%&#$%* '%* 400&'%;%/* N'8$* ?8@/* '8&%2$%* %II%2$%/* 0I* C($%/O9* g0(;#* 8/* 1(&(=&((I* Q9Q9R* 0/'%&*3%$*A01@%*dG8/'%&*"(&A$4%&#$0&8/=]*#$%&A%&%*1&8AA%;*$0$*%II828b/$8%^*(;*8#*C%#23&%4%/)*8#*3%$* C%;(/=&8@A#$%*'0%;*'($*'%*"8/8#$%&*<8;*C%&%8A%/*"%$*?0<%;*'%*#1;8$#8/=*4(/*'%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*(;#* '%*04%&'&(23$*4(/*'%*$&(/#"8##8%/%$<%&A%/*((/*a%//%a)*3%$*?0&=%/*400&*%%/*=%;8@A%&*#1%%;4%;'* <((&'00&*'%*20/2W&&%/$8%*$W##%/*'%*3W8'8=%*%/%&=8%C%'&8@4%/*$0%/%%"$*%/*$0%$&%'8/=*4(/*W8$*3%$* CW8$%/;(/'* ((/$&%AA%;8@A%&* 8#9* E8$* 400&'%%;* C%3(/'%;%/* <%* 38%&* /8%$* 4%&'%&* N8#* 8'%/$8%A* (;#* 8/* '%* %%&'%&*=%/0%"'%*1(&(=&((I*C%#23&%4%/*%II%2$O9* * 5%/*(/'%&*'8&%2$*%II%2$*4(/*'%*04%&'&(23$*4(/*3%$*/%$*4(/(I*RR,*A`*C%$&%I$*'%*4%&=&0$8/=*4(/*'%* C%$&0W
*

g8%* F8(;%A* N+,,QO* 400&* %%/* (/(;D#%* 4(/* %%/* ((/$(;* =&0$%* #$&00"0/'%&C&%A8/=%/9* ./* .$(;8b* #1%%;'%* 20""W/82($8%1&0C;%"%/*$W##%/*'%*.$(;8((/#%*%/*'%*6&(/#%*C%3%%&'%&*%%/*&0;9*E%*20""W/82($8%*<(#*/8%$* '%*00&?((A)*"((&*'%*1&0C;%"%/*4%&%&=%&'%/*%&*<%;*'00&9**



37

3.4.2 Indirecte effecten E(/* A0"%/* <%* /W* C8@* '%* 04%&8=%* %II%2$%/)* /("%;8@A* 8/'8&%2$%* %II%2$%/9* E%* 04%&'&(23$* 4(/* '%* /%$$%/*A0#$*=%;')*0"'($*'%*/%$$%/*4(/(I*RR,*A`*=%A023$*?W;;%/*"0%$%/*<0&'%/*4(/*'%*&%=80/(;%* /%$C%3%%&'% *E%*04%&3%8'*C%$((;$*'8$*'00&*20;;%2$8%4%*3%II8/=%/*NC%;(#$8/==%;'O*$%*4%&30=%/9*E%* C%00='%*400&'%;%/*4(/*'%*((/A001*4(/*'%*/%$$%/*"0%$%/*<0&'%/*(I=%<0=%/*$%=%/*'%*/('%;%/* 4(/*%%/*$0%/("%*4(/*'%*20;;%2$8%4%*;(#$%/*N8929)*'%*4%&#$0&%/'%*A0#$%/*4(/*C%;(#$8/=3%II8/=O9Q-*X%$* =(($* 38%&C8@* 0"* (;;%&;%8* #00&$%/* C%;(#$8/=3%II8/=)* 4(/* 8/A0"#$%/C%;(#$8/=* $0$* Faf9* ./* C0e* Q9Q* <0&'$*'%*4%&#$0&%/'%*<%&A8/=*4(/*C%;(#$8/=%/*/('%&*$0%=%;823$9*E%*A0#$%/*4(/*C%;(#$8/=3%II8/=* ?8@/*%%/*8/'8&%2$*%II%2$)*0"'($*C%;(#$8/=3%II8/=*%%/*d%20/0"8%BC&%'%^*4%&#$0&8/=*40&"$9* * >0A* ?8@/* %&* '%* 0110&$W/8$D* 20#$* 4(/* 3%$* C%#$%'%/* 4(/* 04%&3%8'#=%;'9* !;#* =%;'* %/* "8''%;%/* <0&'%/*C%#$%%'*((/*'%*((/A001*4(/*'%*/%$$%/)*A(/*'($*=%;'*/8%$*00A*/0=*%%/#*<0&'%/*C%#$%%'* ((/* 0/'%&<8@#)* "0/W"%/$%/?0&=* 0I* (/'%&%* &%;%4(/$%* C%;%8'#'0%;%/9* E8$* ;%8'$* $0$* 3%&4%&'%;8/=#%II%2$%/9*E%*0/$4(/=%/'%*;(=%&%*04%&3%'%/*AW//%/*'%*01C&%/=#$*4(/*'%*4%&A001*8/* 3W/*=%C8%'*((/*N1WC;8%A%O*=0%'%&%/*C%#$%'%/9* * Box 3.3: De kosten van belastingheffing De overheid maakt kosten om een sector te reguleren of te stimuleren, maar verhaalt deze kosten op alle sectoren van de economie. Hierdoor is het product van de gereguleerde of gestimuleerde sector goedkoper dan wat het kost, en zijn de producten van de belaste sectoren ‘te duur’ (d.w.z. prijs hoger dan de marginale kosten). Hierdoor maken mensen andere keuzes dan wanneer de prijs van alle sectoren gelijk zou zijn aan de kosten. Dit is het verstorende effect van belastingen. Belastingheffing kan drie verstorende gevolgen hebben. Ten eerste kunnen consumenten minder goederen kopen, waardoor het nut daalt. Ten tweede zijn goederen en diensten duurder voor de gebruiker dan voor de producent. Mensen en bedrijven maken hierdoor andere keuzes over hoeveel en welke goederen en diensten worden aangeschaft. Ten derde wordt de keuze tussen werk en vrije tijd beïnvloed. In beginsel wordt werken minder aantrekkelijk, maar als het inkomen van mensen wordt verlaagd, kan dit mensen tegelijk prikkelen om meer te gaan werken. Door deze veranderende keuzes van mensen komt allocatieve efficiëntie niet meer tot stand en is er een welvaartsverlies. Dit welvaartsverlies vormt additionele kosten van belastingheffing. De kosten van een extra eenheid overheidsmiddelen zijn dan groter dan 1. Daarnaast gaat het innen van belasting gepaard met uitvoeringskosten en administratieve lasten. Als een sector middels private R&D uitgaven zelf alle kosten draagt die nodig zijn voor innovaties, dan hoeft de overheid de andere sectoren niet te belasten. De prijs van alle producten reflecteert dan zo goed mogelijk de (marginale) kosten en allocatieve efficiëntie komt nu wel tot stand. Dit dus ongeacht welk percentage van de brancheomzet bestaat uit R&D kosten. Dus als de overheid R&D financieel stimuleert, treedt er wel een verstoring op, terwijl als de sector dit zelf doet er geen verstoring is. Bron:

De Nooij en Koopmans (2004).

*

3.5 Wisselwerking eigendomssplitsing en de overdracht vanaf 110 kV E%* 20/2W&&%/$8%4%&4(;#8/=* N01* '%* =&00$3(/'%;#"(&A$O* 8#* 8/* 10$%/$8%* 3%$* =&00$#$* 01* 3%$* $&(/#"8##8%/%$9* E((&0"* 8#* 3%$* %II%2$* 4(/* 3%$* #1;8$#%/* 4(/* '%* /%$C%'&8@4%/* 8:#0'#6* (;#* 3%$* ******************************************************** Q-**

F8@* %%/* =%=%4%/* /0&"* 400&* '%* 20;;%2$8%4%* ;(#$%/'&WA* =((/* #WC#8'8%#* $%/* A0#$%* 4(/* (/'%&%* 20;;%2$8%4%* W8$=(4%/9*E%*C%00='%*400&'%;%/*4(/*'%*#WC#8'8%*"0%$%/*'(/*<0&'%/*(I=%<0=%/*$%=%/*'%*400&'%;%/*4(/* '%?%*(/'%&%*20;;%2$8%4%*W8$=(4%/9* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

38

$&(/#"8##8%/%$*4(/(I*RR,*A`*<0&'$*$0%=%<%?%/*((/*a%//%a9*L5%/*30=%&%*=&(('*4(/*#1;8$#8/=*4(/* %;%A$&828$%8$#01<%AA8/=* %/* 4(/* $&(/#"8##8%/%$<%&A%/* 4%&#$%&A$* '%* 10#8$8%* 4(/* /8%W
3.6 Concluderende opmerkingen ./*'8$*300I'#$WA*?8@/*'%*'8&%2$%)*8/'8&%2$%*%/*%e$%&/%*%II%2$%/*4(/*3%$*#1;8$#8/=#400&#$%;*N8/2;9*4%$$%* /%$C%3%%&'%&O* %/* 4(/* '%* 04%&'&(23$* 4(/* 3%$* $&(/#"8##8%/%$* 4(/(I* RR,A`* /((&* a%//%a* C%#23&%4%/9*./*0/'%&#$((/'*04%&?823$*#$((/*'%*%II%2$%/*01*%%/*&8@9** * Tabel 3.2: Overzicht met effecten PROJECTALTERNATIEF: VETTE NETBEHEERDER + EIGENDOMSSPLITSING DIRECTE EFFECTEN

INDIRECTE EFFECTEN

Mogelijk minder marktverstoring: sterkere prikkel tot efficiëntie Mogelijk goedkoper toezicht Efficiëntere netbedrijven door meer focus op kerntaken Effecten op de leveringszekerheid

Effecten op de werkgelegenheid

EXTERNE EFFECTEN

Milieu

Effecten op de aandeelhouderswaarde en de mogelijkheid om (deels) te privatiseren Effecten op de internationale concurrentiepositie van de grootverbruikers energie Precedentwerking ‘vergaande’ splitsingsvoorstel

Eénmalige en structurele reorganisatiekosten Effecten op de contracten van de Cross Border Leases Verlies synergie tussen het netwerk en overige activiteiten Kans op dubbele marginalisatie Risico van juridische zaken door onteigening Kosten van het vervaardigen van het splitsingsvoorstel PROJECTALTERNATIEF: VERSTERKING TRANSMISSIEFUNCTIE TENNET DIRECTE EFFECTEN

Vergroting van de betrouwbaarheid door integrale blik en snellere actie in geval van nood

*


INDIRECTE EFFECTEN

Kosten van belastingheffing

EXTERNE EFFECTEN

-

HEERLIJK HELDER: HET CONCEPTUEEL MKBA KADER

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4 Heerlijk helder: het conceptueel MKBA kader ./*'8$*(I#;W8$%/'%*300I'#$WA*1&%#%/$%&%/*<%*3%$*A0#$%/BC($%/*A('%&)*<((&8/*'%*%II%2$%/*'8%*8/*3%$* 40&8=%*300I'#$WA*?8@/*C%#23&%4%/*<0&'%/*=%0&'%/'*%/*3%;'%&*=%1&%#%/$%%&'9* * 5%/* GKF!* A(/* %&=* 4%%;* 8/I0&"($8%* 01;%4%&%/* %/* '%?%* 8/I0&"($8%* A(/* W8$%&#$* /W$$8=* ?8@/* C8@* C%;%8'#(I<%=8/=%/9* a%=%;8@A%&$8@'* <0&'$* C8@* 3%$* 01#$%;;%/* 4(/* %%/* GKF!* %&=* 4%%;* 8/I0&"($8%* 4%&?("%;')*%%/*3%;'%&%*1&%#%/$($8%*8#*'((&0"*'(/*/00'?(A%;8@A*<8;*%%/*GKF!*'%*C%;%8'#"(A%&* 0/'%&#$%W/%/9*NE%*%%&;8@A3%8'*=%C8%'$*$%*?%==%/*'($*%%/*3%;'%&%*1&%#%/$($8%*00A*'%*0/'%&?0%A%&* '8#281;8/%%&$* %/* '((&"%%* '%* A<(;8$%8$* $%/* =0%'%* A0"$9O* E%?%* 1&%#%/$($8%* ?(;* W8$* %%/* ((/$(;* 0/'%&'%;%/*"0%$%/*C%#$((/]* * • X%$*1&0C;%%"*0I*A/%;1W/$*'($*01=%;0#$*"0%$*<0&'%/h* • E%*"0=%;8@A*01;0##8/=%/h* • E%*C%;(/=&8@A#$%*%II%2$%/h* • 5%/*$0$((;*04%&?823$*"%$*'((&C8@*%%/*C%%;'*4(/*'%*&%/$(C8;8$%8$*4(/*3%$*1&0@%2$9** * E%*%%&#$%*'&8%*0/'%&'%;%/*?8@/*&%%'#*W8$=%C&%8'*((/*'%*0&'%*=%A0"%/9*X8%&*C%1%&A%/*<8@*0/#*$0$* '%* 3%;'%&%* 1&%#%/$($8%* 4(/* 3%$* $0$((;04%&?823$]* 3%$* 20/2%1$W%;%* GKF!* A('%&* [* 20/2%1$W%%;* 0"'($*<%*3%$*A('%&*/8%$*8/4W;;%/*"%$*20/2&%$%*'($(9** * 5%/* GKF!* 3%%I$* 4((A* %%/* LC;(2ABC0eM* A(&(A$%&]* 30%* '%* 4%î;%/'%* A0#$%/* %/* C($%/* ?8@/* C%&%A%/'* 8#* 4((A* #;%23$#* 400&* %/A%;%* #1%28(;8#$%/* 'W8'%;8@A9* >0A* ?8@/* %&* 4((A* d?(23$%^)* /8%$B =%"0/%$(&8#%%&'%*%II%2$%/)*'8%*0/$C&%A%/*8/*3%$*A0#$%/BC($%/*#(;'09*E8$*#(;'0*=(($*'(/*d%%/*%8=%/* ;%4%/* ;%8'%/^)* %/* '%* ?(23$%* %II%2$%/* <0&'%/* 4%&=%$%/9* E8$* =%C%W&$* C8@* 8/I&(#$&W2$WW&* 4((A* "%$* /($WW&%II%2$%/9*F8@*3%$*'%C($*04%&*'%*#1;8$#8/=*'&%8=$*'8$*$%*=%C%W&%/*"%$*'%*;%4%&8/=#?%A%&3%8'*%/* "%$* '%* %II828b/$8%C($%/* 0"'($* '%?%* 4((A* /8%$* <0&'%/* =%#23($9* ./* %%/* ((/4W;;8/=* 01* '%* >5.B ;%8'&(('* NK001"(/#)* +,,\O* ?8@/* 4%î;%/'%* ((/C%4%;8/=%/* =%I0&"W;%%&'* 0"* '%* ;%?%&* "%%&* 8/?823$*$%*=%4%/*%/*0"*3%$*A0#$%/BC($%/*C%%;'*%4%/<823$8=*<%%&*$%*=%4%/]* * • :23&8@I*%%/*#("%/4($$8/=*400&*/8%$B'%#AW/'8=%/h* • G((A* %%/* #("%/4($$%/'%* $(C%;* 01* cc/* C;('?8@'%* <((&8/* (;;%* %II%2$%/* <0&'%/* <%%&=%=%4%/)* 0/=%(23$*0I*?%*=%"0/%$(&8#%%&'*?8@/*0I*/8%$9*7%%"*'((&8/*/((#$*I8/(/28b;%*=&00$3%'%/*00A*'%* C8@C%30&%/'%* ID#8%A%* 28@I%&#* 01* NW&%/* $8@'<8/#$)* $0//%/* %"8##8%#* %$29O9* Z%%I* 04%&* /8%$B =%"0/%$(&8#%%&'%* %II%2$%/* (/'%&%* 8/I0&"($8%* NC8@49* A<(;8$($8%IO9* !;#* C8@400&C%%;'* %%/* 4%&#;%23$%&8/=*4(/*'%*;%4%&8/=#?%A%&3%8'*'&%8=$*A<(/$8I82%%&*'%?%*'(/*N"%$*%%/*C(/'C&%%'$%O* 30%4%%;*"%%&*"8/W$%/*#$&00"0/'%&C&%A8/=*%&*/((&*4%&<(23$8/=*8#h** • Z%%I*3%$*A0#$%/BC($%/#(;'0*#$%%'#*<%%&*8/2;W#8%I*'%*/8%$B=%"0/%$(&8#%%&'%*%II%2$%/9*Z%C&W8A* 38%&400&* ((/'W8'8/=%/* (;#* LsmM* N0/C%A%/'* "((&* 10#8$8%I* %II%2$O* %/* LBmMN0/C%A%/'* "((&* /%=($8%I*%II%2$O9* *


40

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4.1 Voorbeelden van mogelijke afwegingskaders a0$*#;0$*=%4%/*<%*%%/*((/$(;*"0=%;8@A%*A0#$%/BC($%/*(/(;D$8#23%*(I<%=8/=#A('% *a(C%;*\9R*?%$* (;;%* 1&0@%2$(;$%&/($8%4%/* 01* %%/* &8@$@%* %/* 4%&=%;8@A$* '%* "0=%;8@A%* %II%2$%/* "%$* 3%$* /W;(;$%&/($8%I9* X%$*/W;(;$%&/($8%I*C%3%;#$*40;;%'8=%*$0%1(##8/=*4(/*'%*3W8'8=%*.k.*<%$=%48/=*%/*dI8/%*$W/8/=^*N'($* <8;*?%==%/*3%$*=%&823$%&*%/*#$%48=%&*8/?%$$%/*4(/*3%$*3W8'8=%*8/#$&W"%/$(&8W"O9* * g0(;#*<%*8/*1(&(=&((I*+9+9\*%/*+9+9Y*C%#23&%4%/*8#*3%$*4(/*C%;(/=*0"*%%/*=%40%;8=3%8'#(/(;D#%*W8$* $%*40%&%/*8/'8%/*'%*0"4(/=*4(/*C%1((;'%*N"0=%;8@A*'00&#;(==%4%/'%O*%II%2$%/*0/?%A%&*8#9*a(C%;* \9+* =%%I$* %%/* "0=%;8@A%* <%%&=(4%* 4(/* 3%$* A('%&* 8/* 3%$* =%4(;* %%/* =%40%;8=3%8'#(/(;D#%* <0&'$* $0%=%1(#$)*"%$*$<%%*8/#23($$8/=%/*d;((=^*%/**d300=^9** *

******************************************************** QT**

da3%*"(8/*C%/%I8$*0I*J0#$BF%/%I8$*!/(;D#8#*;8%#*8/*$3%*'8#281;8/%*8$*8"10#%#9^*



41

Tabel 4.1: MKBA kader op basis van de projectalternatieven PROJECTALTERNATIEVEN VETTE NETBEHEERDER

VETTE NETBEHEERDER + EIGENDOMSSPLITSING

MOGELIJKE EFFECTEN

VERSTERKING TRANSMISSIEFUNCTIE TENNET

VETTE NETBEHEERDER + VERSTERKING TRANSMISSIEFUNCTIE TENNET + EIGENDOMSSPLITSING

Directe effecten Minder marktverstoring: sterkere prikkel tot efficiëntie Goedkoper toezicht Efficiëntere netbedrijven door meer focus op kerntaken Effecten op de leveringszekerheid Eénmalige en structurele reorganisatiekosten Effecten op de contracten van de Cross Border Leases Verlies synergie tussen het netwerk en overige activiteiten Kans op dubbele marginalisatie Risico van juridische zaken door onteigening Kosten van het vervaardigen van het splitsingsvoorstel Vergroting van de betrouwbaarheid door integrale blik en snellere actie in geval van nood Indirecte effecten Effecten op de werkgelegenheid Effecten op de aandeelhouderswaarde en de mogelijkheid om (deels) te privatiseren Effecten op de internationale concurrentiepositie van de grootverbruikers energie Precedentwerking ‘vergaande’ splitsingsvoorstel Kosten van belastingheffing Externe effecten Milieu Totaal (saldo baten minus kosten)

* SEO ECONOMISCH ONDERZOEK

42

Tabel 4.2: MKBA kader met een gevoeligheidsanalyse PROJECTALTERNATIEVEN VETTE NETBEHEERDER

VETTE NETBEHEERDER + EIGENDOMSSPLITSING

VERSTERKING TRANSMISSIEFUNCTIE TENNET

VETTE NETBEHEERDER + VERSTERKING TRANSMISSIEFUNCTIE TENNET + EIGENDOMSSPLITSING

MOGELIJKE EFFECTEN

Laag Directe effecten Minder marktverstoring: sterkere prikkel tot efficiëntie Goedkoper toezicht Efficiëntere netbedrijven door meer focus op kerntaken Effecten op de leveringszekerheid Eénmalige en structurele reorganisatiekosten Effecten op de contracten van de Cross border leases Verlies synergie tussen het netwerk en overige activiteiten Kans op dubbele marginalisatie Risico van juridische zaken door onteigening Kosten van het vervaardigen van het splitsingsvoorstel Vergroting van de betrouwbaarheid door integrale blik en snellere actie in geval van nood Indirecte effecten Effecten op de werkgelegenheid Effecten op de aandeelhouderswaarde en de mogelijkheid om (deels) te privatiseren Effecten op de internationale concurrentiepositie van de grootverbruikers energie Precedentwerking ‘vergaande’ splitsingsvoorstel Kosten van belastingheffing Externe effecten Milieu Totaal (saldo baten minus kosten)

*


Hoog

Laag

Hoog

Laag

Hoog

Laag

Hoog


43

Tabel 4.3: MKBA kader in termen van herverdelingseffecten van projectalternatief x PROJECTALTERNATIEF X

ENERGIEBEDRIJVEN

MOGELIJKE EFFECTEN

BESTAANDE BEDRIJVEN

TOETREDERS

COSNUMENTEN / BELASTINGBETALER

ZAKELIJKE AFNEMERS / BEDRIJVEN

OVERHEID / TOEZICHTHOUDER

(BUITENLANDSE) INVESTEERDERS

Directe effecten Minder marktverstoring: sterkere prikkel tot efficiëntie Goedkoper toezicht Efficiëntere netbedrijven door meer focus op kerntaken Effecten op de leveringszekerheid Eénmalige en structurele reorganisatiekosten Effecten op de contracten van de Cross Border Leases Verlies synergie tussen het netwerk en overige activiteiten Kans op dubbele marginalisatie Risico van juridische zaken door onteigening Kosten van het vervaardigen van het splitsingsvoorstel Vergroting van de betrouwbaarheid door integrale blik en snellere actie in geval van nood Indirecte effecten Effecten op de werkgelegenheid Effecten op de aandeelhouderswaarde en de mogelijkheid om (deels) te privatiseren Effecten op de internationale concurrentiepositie van de grootverbruikers energie Precedentwerking ‘vergaande’ splitsingsvoorstel Kosten van belastingheffing Externe effecten Milieu Totaal (saldo baten minus kosten)

*


TOTAAL

44

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45

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