Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University Vice Chair, WGIII, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IEW, Cork, June 3, 2016
Overview v Introduction: the historical turning point of 2015 v 1.5 C, the IPCC and energy modeling v Challenging energy modeling in the 1.5C era: q Buildings q…
v The lock-in risk v (re)quest(ion)s to the energy modeling community to facilitate an even more advanced scientific underpinning the assessment of 1.5C
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2015: a turning point in world history v MDGs have been (fairly) successfully achieved v Adoption of even more ambitious and far-reaching SDGs v The Paris Agreement: q Never in world history have been 150 Heads of State under one roof q Never in history have over 170 countries signed any international agreement at the first opportunity
v This shows a political will unprecedented in global history to solve (a) global problem(s)
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The Paris Agreement: a miracle? vLarge fossil exporting economies who have traditionally mostly been derailing negotiations or agreements – all agreed to net zero emissions, and even celebrated it
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The Paris Agreement: a miracle?
v Large fossil exporting economies who have traditionally mostly been derailing negotiations or agreements – all agreed to net zero emissions, and even celebrated it v Virtually no expert projected such a far-reaching agreement q
E.g. “Due to non-feasibility of a stringent top-down regime and lacking ambition of a bottom-up regime, the 2°C target is out of reach. If impacts of meteorological extreme events become politically unbearable, policymakers will be tempted to engage in solar radiation management, with the risk of significant side effects” (Michaelowa 2015, Annual Review of Environment and Resources)
v The PA has shown the world that a serious problem with extremely complex and conflicting underlying interests CAN be solved on a multilateral basis 3CSEP
The Paris Agreement, the IPCC, and the task for the energy modeling community vCOP-21 in its decision on the adoption of the Paris Agreement, explicitly invited the IPCC to provide a Special Report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. vAfter initial skepticism among experts in IPCC; by April: almost unanimous plenary approval qPartially thanks to the energy modeling community
vBut: now the enormous work is needed to produce the science that can be assessed, FAST 3CSEP
Pathways in AR5
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Figure 6.35. Direct emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios with and without using CCS
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Creutzig et al, 2016 vof the 400 scenarios reviewed in AR5 that limit warming to 2°C, 344 (86%) rely on negative emission technologies, in particular on BECCS vSeveral of these imply massive changes in land use patterns and have raised many concerns since AR5 vCould the demand-side fill the gap? vThe AR5 also showed that the solution space is much more flexible if demand is kept at bay or reduced 3CSEP
Baseline Scenarios: Direct vs. Indirect Emission Accounting
3CSEP Source: Volker Krey, using IPCC AR5 Figure SPM.10, TS.15 Source: Figure TS.15
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Energy efficiency in buildings can substantially lower sectoral energy use; thermal uses are most reducible
for further details on mitigation options and potentials, see Chapter 9
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Figure 9.21 Building final energy use in EJ / yr in 2050 (2030 for BUENAS and WEO'10) for advanced scenarios, modelling four groups of building end-uses as compared to reference ones.
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World floor area
World final thermal energy use
bln.m2 400
EJ 160
350
140
300
+111%
250 200
120 100 80
150
+48%
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60 40 20
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-29%
Single-family Urban
Single-family Rural
Multifamily
Office
Education
Hotels & Restaurants
Retail
Hospitals
Other
Slums
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Moderate
Frozen
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2050
2045
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2015
2010
2050 2005
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Challenging integrated energy models building sector v Do models covering the building sector really understand the frontiers of know-how in architecture? (such as nearlyzero and passive buildings)? v Proposal: move away from modeling building COMPONENTS to building SYSTEMS (i.e. better to use performance-based approaches to building energy modeling, at least for heating/cooling) v How are we projecting the building energy future? q QUIZ
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Per capita final energy use in IEA regions, 1980 and 2010
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The Lock-in Risk: global heating and cooling final energy in two scenarios 80 70
46%
60
Lock-in Effect 80%
EJ
50
34%
40 30 20 10 0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Moderate Efficiency
2030
2035
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Deep Efficiency
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The lock-in risk: heating and cooling energy demand by two scenarios 3CSEP
Further challenging integrated energy modeling: working in traditional silos vs allowing for different systemic approaches v sectoral breakdown – inherited from economic statistics; is this still the best (or at least only) way to organize energy (end) use? v E.g. food systems q Agriculture, industry, transport, buildings, services q But cross-sectoral savings often remain uncaptured vReducing food waste vDietary shifts
v E.g. urban systems q The role of urban planning, interactions between buildings and transport; role of density q Eliminating UHI – effect on emissions/energy use? 3CSEP
Further challenging integrated energy modeling 2: technology vs. behavior/culture/values v Factors of 3 to 10 differences in residential energy use for similar dwellings with same occupancy and comfort levels (Zhang et al., 2010), and up to 10 times difference in office buildings with same climate and same building functions with similar comfort and health levels v the use of 'part-time‘ and 'part-space' indoor climate conditioning, using mechanical systems only for the remaining needs when passive approaches cannot meet comfort demands can reach energy use levels below 30 kWhe / m2 / yr as a world average (TUBESRC, 2009; Murakami et al., 2009), as opposed to the 30 – 50 kWhe / m2 / yr achievable through fully automatized full thermal conditioning (Murakami et al., 2009; Yoshino et al., 2011).
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Behaviour, lifestyes vs technology cont. v Dress codes: AC thermostat setting from 28 to 24 will more than triple AC power use in Zurich and double in Rome. “Cool Biz” of Japan enables the higher setting v Many more examples – point is to go beyond pricedriven demand changes as sole behavioural option, as well as purchasing behavior to increase penetration of advanced technologies v E.g. Lord Stern’s example: average car in the city is utilized less than 5% of the time (tbc); with less than a third of seat occupancy – i.e. less than 2% average utilization factor. Using parking space, urban space, resources to manufacture, dispose of, etc. Is really the winning strategy to optimize the fuel/efficiency of this vehicle, rather than incentivising shared ownership/use 3CSEP systems?
Challenging the frontiers of energy modeling 3. v In general, are the effects of the shared economy captured? Future opportunities? v Driverless mobility? v Driverless smart/intelligent transport and shipping systems, replacing even public transport systems? v In general, how much are we capturing the gigantic optimization opportunities through IOT, Big Data, Web 2.0, ubiquitous remote sensors, etc….? v CDRU?
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Further non-technological, non-price opportunity examples based on Creutzig et al 2016, Annual Reviews
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Summary points v In order for the IPCC to do a useful report on 1.5C pathways, it is crucial that energy modeling is advanced to better integrate: q Frontiers of technologies and know-how v E.g. passive buildings
q Frontiers of 21st century opportunities for optimization and service provision v IOT, web 2.0, big data, ubiquitous sensors, etc.
q The increasing opportunities through the shared economy q Opportunities through behavior, lifestyle change, cultural change q Analyse also in other systemic frameworks than traditional economic sectors; e.g. food systems and urban systems q The quantification (and minimization?) of the lock-in risk
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Thank you for your attention Ürge-Vorsatz Diana Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP)
CEU
Ipcc.ch A HVG engedélyével
Email:
[email protected]
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Supplementary slides
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The Paris Agreement: why a miracle? v Nemcsak, hogy 2 fokon kell maximalizálni a melegedést, de törekedni kell a 1.5 fokra!! v Az évszázad 2. felére gyarkorlatilag nem bocsáthatunk ki CO2-t v Mindenki tesz valamiféle vállalást v Ezeket 5 évente felülvizsgálják v Gyakorlatilag csak szigorodhatnak ezek, nem lazulhatnak v Nem lehet könnyen kilépni v El kell számolni a kibocsájtásokkal, ellenőrizhetően jelenteni v Igen nagy pénzösszegek ígérve a károsultaknak v Bár nincsenek szankciók, de jogilag kötelező érvényű v És ezt 198 ország jóváhagyta….., beleértve az OPECeseket is…. 3CSEP
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Recent news from CC vBy December 2015, WMO announced that global warming has reached 1 full degree Centigrade as compared to pre-industrial vFebruary 2016 was 1.35C warmer than midcentury average; exceeding by a significantly larger margin than ever before in recorded history
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February 2016 has soared as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in global recordkeeping. NASA’s analysis showed that February ran 1.35°C above the 1951-1980 global average for the month. The previous record was set just last month, as January 2016 came in 1.14°C above the 1951-1980 average for the month. In other words, February has dispensed with this onemonth-old record by a full 0.21°C --an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly world temperature record by.
Monthly global surface temperatures (land and ocean) from NASA for the period 1880 to February 2016, expressed in departures from the 1951-1980 average. The red line shows the 12-month running average. Image credit: Stephan Okhuijsen, datagraver.com,
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Anomalies (departures from average) in surface temperature across the globe for February 2016, in degrees Centigrade, as analyzed by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA/GISS.
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The 2016 Feb Cat 5 cyclone caused app. 10% loss in Fiji’s GDP
Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February. This is approximately 10% of their GDP. In this image, we see how Category 5 winds can completely flatten human3CSEP built structures: Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.
Miért tűnt lehetetlen feladatnak a párizsi egyezmény? v A legjobban szenvedők nem ugyanazok, akik a károkat okozták/okozzák,valamint akik legtöbbet tudnának tenni a mérséklésért, földrajzilag és időben, társadalmi csoportilag v Gazdagok nem akarták a versenyképességüket egyoldalúan lerontani a fejlődők javára az energiaárak otthoni drágításával (inkább kifogás) v Fejlődők tartják magukat a fejlődéshez való jogukhoz, nem ők okozták a problémát, mondják v A világ felosztása 1992-ben egész más volt, de a kedvezményezettek ragaszkodtak hozzá, hogy ne kerüljenek ki a kedvezményezettek köréből v Pár nagyhatalom tradicionálisan nem megy bele semmilyen nemzetközi egyezménybe, ahol el kéne valamivel számolnia másoknak (USA, Kína) v Nem lehetett a mérséklési feladatnak olyan „szétosztását” találni, ami mindenkinek megfelelt volna v Az olaj- és szén nagyhatalmak módszeresen blokkolták a folyamatot v A fejlődők hatalmas kompenzációkat követelnek az elszenvedett károkért v Nagyjából az EU volt eddig, aki tolta ezt a szekeret, de az EU sem egységes (pl. Lengyelország), és a nagy összegeket ki fizesse…? v Az alulról jövó kezdeményezések túl gyengék v Az USA sosem tudná ratifikálni, ha alá is írna valami erős egyezményt, es mi van, ha republikánus siker lesz a választásokon…? 3CSEP
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What else was needed for the miracle? vIngeneous negotiators and presidency such as the French leadership vMeticulous diplomatic preparations by the French vLots of personal charisma (such as Laurent Fabius) vOther miracles, such as very devoted, ingenious leadership of the G77+China by South Africa vSeveral climate catastrophies in the recent past (such as Califonia) 3CSEP
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The 2015 drought crisis of California • Reduced snow cover • • • •
75 – 80% of CA’s freshwater is from the Sierra Nevada snowpack; 2015 February it was 14% of average More of the precipitation in rain than snow – running off rather than accumulating and being “stored” In general, precipitation is going to be decreased Increasing wildfires,
• agriculture badly affected • •
Southwest produces over half of the Nation’s high value crops, depending on irrigation and water resources Heat and water stress, combined with increasing pest outbreaks
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IPCC AR5: Substantial reductions in emissions will require large changes in investment patterns
Based on Figure 16.3
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Ingredients of this herculean task v Our economies must be weaned from fossils by mid-century v Alternatives will not be able to do it without a massive reduction in energy demand q Energy efficiency v Foremost nearly zero energy buildings q Renewable energy q Toughest task: transport, especially aviation
v Technology alone is unlikely to be sufficient to meet even the 1.5C, but probably not even the 2C target v This agreement for the first time will seriously question our economic model that is so reliant on constant growth in consumption v Potentially concepts such as sufficiency and behavioural change may need to be involved in implementation v But we definitely need revolutionary changes on the sides of business 3CSEP
New business models are needed v What we really need are ingeneous new business models whose profits are not from converting raw natural resources to sellable consumer goods; but rather decouple (or minimize the link between) well-being from more resource consumption v Recent ideas that come close but are not quite what I mean are: q Social media – replacing much travel? (good or bad…?) q Airbnb, uber, etc – the sharing economy?
v More business platforms needed for utilizing unwanted, grown-out, etc products that have not reached the end of their lifetimes but cannot easily find their new owner q Also needs a cultural change, but partially ongoing
v More business profiting form repair and good maintenance, lending, rather than selling new and encouraging early breakdown or replacement v Business ideas utilizing or minisiing waste streams – such as the 50% of the food in the EU that we ends up as waste q are there solutions that still supply the choice of fresh food an hour before closure but eliminate waste? Could we better predict demand?
v More utilization of IT for more optimization (such as trafiic jams, unnecessary trips to where we do not want to go but have to; more teleworking, teleeducation; more optimization in transport and aviation) v Can businesses profit from a more quality spending of time rather than 3CSEP etc) consumption? (community-building, family, local travel, eco-tourism,
Thank you for your attention Ürge-Vorsatz Diana Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP)
CEU
Ipcc.ch A HVG engedélyével
Email:
[email protected]
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Supplementary slides
Source: IPCC 2013, AR5, WGII. Chapter 26 North America
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2015 was the warmest year ever recorded on Earth
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10 dolog, amit tehetsz 1. Biciklizz vagy gyalogolj, esetleg tömegközlekedj autózás helyett! 2. Fedezd fel inkább Magyarországot jobban, kevesebbet utazz külföldre 3. Ne vágj ki fát! Inkább ültess még itthon honos lombos fajokat (ne tujákat), árnyékolj velük! 4. Cseréld a kukád kisebbre! Használj újra, amit csak lehet, minél kevesebb eldobható dolgot, csomagolást használj! Például mindig legyen nálad bevásárlószatyor, bögre, hogy ne kelljen eldobhatókat használnod ezekből! Komposztálj és gyűjtsd a maradék hulladékot szelektíven! 5. Turkálj! J Ha lehet, használt termékeket, ruhákat vásárolj! Amíg meg lehet javíttatani, ne vegyél újat! Ha meguntad/kihíztad/kinőtted, csereberélj, adományozz, de ne dobd el! 6. Válaszd a helyileg megtermelt, természetes anyagokból levő, tartós árukat! 7. Egyél kevesebb húst, különösen marhahúst! 8. Ha lehetőséged van rá, újítsd fel lakóépületed passzívház szintre! Ímmelámmal való itt-ott szigetelés vagy nyílászárócsere több gondot okoz, mint hasznot – várd ki, míg radikális, teljes energetikai felújítást tudsz végeztetni! 9. Mutasd meg a kormánynak, hogy igenis érdekel a jövőd! 10. Add tovább! Várd el ezeket családodtól, munkatársaidtól, barátaidtól is!
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…és még: utazás és otthon v Vezess okosan (ne járasd a motort, ha nem kell, ne gyorsítgass feleslegesen) akár 33%kal is csökkent heti a kibocsájtást v Végeztess rendszeres karbantartást autódon, fűtő- és elektromos berendezéseiden! v Használj megújuló üzemanyagot vagy elektromos autót v Lehetőleg ne egyedül utazz az autóban v Mindig legyen felfújva a kerék v Ne mosdd az autódat túl gyakran v Lehetőleg elektronikusan intézd az ügyeidet és skypolj, minthogy személyesen értekezz, ha lehet! v Otthon v Használj energiatakarékos izzókat, lehetőleg LEDet! v Használj programozható termosztátot, vagy vedd lejjebb, ha elmész! v Gyűjtsd a hulladékot szelektíven, komposztálj! v Húzd ki, amit nem használsz éppen, sok készülék akkor is fogyaszt, ha ki vannak kapcsolva v Vásárolj helyi és bio termékeket v Ne használj eldobható dolgokat, legyen egy állandó bögre nálad, hogy ne 3CSEP kelljen eldobható poharat használni
Tippek még - otthon v Ne nagyon használj háztartási csomagolóanyagokat! Szendvicseidet csomagold ételesdobozba vagy üres liszteszacskóba, maradék ételt fedővel vagy tányérral fedj le, ne fóliával! v A hűtőt tartsd hideg helyiségben, ha lehet, ne építsd be, legyen 10 cm-re a faltól a háta, és tarsd tisztán a hűtőrácsot! Mindig fedd le benne a dolgokat! v Törekedj az új termékek vásárlását el csökkenteni, inkább javíttasd meg a régit! v Ha veszel, figyelj, hogy minél tartósabb legyen, és ha lehet, ne is cseréld le, amíg működik! v Vásárolj helyi termékeket, ha lehet, természetes anyagokból, vagy bio-termékeket! v Ne használj annyi háztartási vegyszert! Szinte minden tisztítást meg lehet oldani ecet, szódabikarbóna, citromsav és só okos használatával! Öblítőt semmiképp se használj! v Ne folyasd a vizet feleslegesen! Nyáron locsolhatsz tisztán maradt öblítővízzel (gyümülcsmosás, kézöblítés, stb) v Ne betonozz le a kertedben élő területet! Esetleg betonrácsot használj autóbeállóhoz, de közte legyen fű! Ültess minél több lombos fát, bokrot, ezek aktívan hűtenek nyáron! v Légkondi használatát előzd meg, amíg csak tudod!! Legyen sok zöld, lombos növény körülötted kinnt és bennt, árnyákold kívülről az összes ablakod! Forróságban éjjel tarts nyitva minden ablakot, hajnalban csukd be őket mind, és egész nappal tartsd őket jól árnyékolva! Melegben teregess a lakásban, mosd fel a követ gyakran hideg vízzel! Hagyd, hogy megszáradjon! Így hűvösen fogsz maradni! v Szereltess napelemet és készítsetek a szomszédokkal napkollektort! 3CSEP
A Kormányközi Klímavédelmi Testület (IPCC) szerepe v The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation v Reports are reviewed by thousands of experts and government representatives v IPCC material must be policy relevant, but must not be policy prescriptive v (thus all recommendations in this talk are from myself and not from the IPCC)
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December 2007: IPCC megosztva kapja a Béke Nobel-díjat A.A.Gore-ral "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".
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Mit mond az IPCC?
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INDCs may cap 21st century warming at 2.7C
UNFCCC: SYNTHESIS REPORT ON THE AGGREGATE EFFECT OF INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDCs), November 2015
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From James Sweeney, 2015 July Paris presentation
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Estimates for mitigation costs vary widely. • Reaching 450ppm CO2eq entails consumption losses of 1.7% (1%-4%) by 2030, 3.4% (2% to 6%) by 2050 and 4.8% (3%11%) by 2100 relative to baseline (which grows between 300% to 900% over the course of the century).
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This is equivalent to a reduction in consumption growth over the 21st century by about 0.06 (0.04-0.14) percentage points a year (relative to annualized consumption growth that is between 1.6% and 3% per year).
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Cost estimates exlude benefits of mitigation (reduced impacts from climate change). They also exclude other benefits (e.g. improvements for local air quality).
Source: IPCC 2014, AR5 WGIII
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vFrom jom sweeney
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The Fifth Assessment Report: 2013 – 14 Mitigation: Working Group III AR5: the largest assessment in human history 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments 3CSEP
