Bijlage 1. Meerjarenplan. Steunpunt Wonen Versie 23 januari Promotor-coördinator: Prof. Dr. Erik Buyst

Bijlage 1

Meerjarenplan

Steunpunt Wonen 2012-2015 Versie 23 januari 2012

Promotor-coördinator: Prof. Dr. Erik Buyst

1

1. Inhoud 1.

Inhoud

2

2.

Introduction

3

3.

The 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

3 3 3 3 4

4.

Research programme 4.1 Aims and intented results 4.2 Basic research 4.3 Short term research tasks 4.4 Gantt chart 4.4.1 Planning of research activities 4.4.2 Outputs

4 4 5 28 28 29 30

5.

Additional themes 5.1 Transversal themes 5.2 Structural interaction with other research centres 5.3 Delivery of reports and dissemination of results

31 31 31 31

6.

Management 6.1 Internalorganisation 6.1.1 Promotor-coordinator 6.1.2 Coordinator 6.1.3 Secretariat 6.1.4 Responsibles 6.1.5 Researchers 6.1.6 Board 6.1.7 Research team 6.2 HRM-beleid 6.2.1 Barema's 6.2.2 Selectiecriteria en aanwerving procedures 6.2.3 Vorming 6.2.4 Kennisdeling 6.3 Financieel beheer 6.4 Logistiek beheer 6.5 Huisvesting

33 33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 37

7.

Meerjarenbegroting 7.1 Budgetten (in euro) 7.2 Personeelsinzet

38 38 42

8.

Jaarbegroting 8.1 Begroting Steunpunt 8.2 Begroting KULeuven 8.2.1 Begroting HIVA 8.2.2 Begroting CES 8.2.3 Begroting OSA 8.2.4 Begroting KULeuven totaal 8.3 Begroting PHL 8.4 Begroting WENK 8.5 Begroting OTB 8.6 Personeelsi nzet

43 43 45 45 46 47 48 50 51 52 53

9.

Samenvatting in het Nederlands 9.1 Doelstelling van het Steunpunt Wonen 9.2 Opdrachten van het Steunpunt Wonen

54 54 54

consortium composition A multidisciplinary team Structural partners Privileged partners Subcontractors

2

2. Introduction This multiannual plan defines the tasks of the Steunpunt Wonen as these are agreed upon between the responsible Flemish Ministers and the Steunpunt Wonen. In what follows it will be set out how the consortium of researchers is composed, what is the research programme, how the programme will be managed and what will be the budgets for this.

3. The consortium composition 3.1

A multidisciplinary team

Housing as a research subject has many different social, economical and spatial dimensions. Understanding housing and providing adequate and reliable information concerning housing demands the contribution of several academic disciplines. The research team that is submitting this proposal therefore is a multidisciplinary team, consisting of economists, sociologists, geographers, architects, engineers and researchers in public administration. Elaborating on the collaboration we set up within the Sustainable Housing Policy Knowledge Centre 2004-2006 (Kenniscentrum Duurzaam Woon beleid) and the Policy Research Centre for Spatial Planning and Housing 2007-2011 (Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen) we make interdisciplinary working the core of our working method.

3.2

Structural partners

Six structural partners make up the core of the consortium. Together they carry out the basis research. The responsible persons of the structural partners are all members of the Board. The structural partners demonstrate a balance between academic research and policy oriented research. HIVA and OTB have a pool of researchers available who are employed on a contract basis, what allows the necessary flexibility. CES, OSA, Hogeschool WENK and PHL put in PhD students and academic staff. Within the group there is a clear division of tasks based on the specific expertise. On the other hand intensive teamwork wil! guarantee exchange and interaction between the researchers. This teamwork contributes to an integrated approach. The six structural partners are: K.U.Leuven - The Center for Economic Studies (CES) K.U.Leuven - HIVA-Research Institute forWork and Society (HIVA) K.U.Leuven - OSA Sint-Lucasarchitectuurschool Gent/Brussel, Hogeschool voor Wetenschap en Kunst (WENK) Provinciale Hogeschool Limburg (PHL) OTB - TU Delft

3.3

Privileged partners

The team has privileged relations with a limited number of other research groups. The privileged relation means that: researchers of these partners at all time can participate in the team meetings; PhD students with research subjects related to housing contribute to the team work; In case there are short term research tasks that fit into the expertise of the privileged partner, this partner can participate on the same basis as the structural partners. 1. K.U.Leuven, Division of Geography 2. K.U.Leuven, Public Management Institute 3.University of Antwerp, OASeS 4. University of Antwerp, Department of Political Science, research group Public Administration & Management Only two of the four privileged partners have a representative in the board. It are the research groups of whom the research themes are most close to housing (K.U.Leuven, Division of Geography and University of Antwerp, OASeS). The two other research groups are specialized in public management.

3

Their research theme is not at the core of this call, but their knowledge and experience can be of high value for specific short term research tasks related to public management.

3.4

Subcontractors

One of the tasks of the Policy Research Centre is the follow up and processing of the data of a large housing survey. In 2012-2013 a sample of 6.800 or more households will be questioned concerning their housing situation, housing needs, affordability of housing, etc. Part of this survey is an internal screening of the housing features and housing quality. A screening instrument and a manual for this are prepared in 2011. The fieldwork is planned to start halfway 2012 and will last until 2013. The interview and technical screening will be done by interviewers who have had specific training for this. It is the first time in Flanders such an internal technical screening of houses will be organized. The follow up of the fieldwork for this technical screening, the quality control and the cleaning of the dataset set are not seen as core business of the academic partners and will therefore be subcontracted. In the financial arrangements the maximum necessary budget for this subcontracting (67.000 euro) is reserved. The subcontract will be assigned following the standard procedures for public sector subcontracting.

4. Research programme 4.1

Aims and intented results

The aim of the Steunpunt Wonen (as defined by the Flemish government) is to provide objective information on the actual and desired situation on the Flemish housing market and to contribute in this way to a long term vis ion indicating the direction in which the Flemish housing policy should evolve to realize the constitutional right to decent and affordable housing for every household. Specific points of interest are the energy efficiency of the dwellings and urban policy. The Steunpunt Wonen 2012-2016 will in especially provide information to fill the gap in knowledge that was detected when the Flemish administration started the preparations for a Flemish Housing Policy Plan. The research lines included in the research call are followed in this multiannual plan. These research lines are: the follow up and analysis of the data of the planned large scale housing survey the measurement of the vacancy rate, non-official residents, and informal housing the gathering and analysis of data concerning groups underrepresented in large scale surveys, in especially concerning the bottom end of the housing market and private land lords the analysis of the EPC-database the development of policy indicators research on the effects of housing policy research concerning the territorial selectivity of housing policy the answering of short term research questions We remark that this list of research tasks finds its origin in the gaps in knowledge of the Flemish government and is not ai ming at filling the gaps in academic research, although we think this research agenda has some potential to add to international academic research. Of the total budget, 70% will be spend on what is called 'basic research'. The research task are defined in this multiannual programme and set out in 4.2 below. Additionally, 30% of the budget will be spend on short term research tasks. These tasks will be defined later, as is explained in 4.3. In 4.4 we include a gantt chart which displays the planning of research activities and outputs.

4

4.2

Basic research

I WP 1. The Housing Survey 2012 Content At this time The Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen 2007-2011 is demanded to prepare a new large scale housing survey, hereafter called 'Housing Survey 2012'. The preparation includes the development of the questionnaire for the interview part of the Survey and of the instrument for the technical screening of the inside and outside of the dwelling, the development of the sample design, the preparation of request for a sample of the national household register, preparation of the call for the data gathering and the organization of the consultation process with the Flemish cities concerning the proposed 'oversampling'. The actual planning means th at the call for the data gathering will be launched in January 2012 and the fieldwork for this will run from April 2012 until April 2013. The field work needs a keen follow up by the research team. HIVA will be responsible for this follow up, what includes: participation in the selection of the organization to which the fieldwork will be assigned; responsibility for the request of a sample from the National Register; contribute to the training of the interviewees; quality control of the fieldwork The researcher of HIVA will carry out all these tasks related to the interview part making use of the experience of the KULeuven with the former Housing Survey. The follow up of the technical screening will be subcontracted since this is primarily a technical matter and not a core task of researchers. After data cleaning the analysis of data can be started. In 2013 and the first half of 2014 basic analyses will be carried out. In all analyses differences will be made between the different parts of the housing market (ownership, private renting, social renting), between socio-economie groups and between regions. For the main indicators tables will be provided with figures for the 13 center cities. As far as the necessary data are available also evolutions in time will investigated. Planning of research activities Activities

Research time in months

Responsible institution I partner

2012

Follow up ofthe fieldwork, quality control of data gathering, analysis of non respons

3

HIVA+ subcontractor

2013

Follow up of the fieldwork, quality control of data gathering, analysis of non respons

3 + sub-

HIVA+ subcontractor

Basic analyses

6,6

HIVA

2 1 4,8

OSA

2014 2015

Basic analyses

Additional thematical analyses selected based on policy priorities

contracting

3 2 3 2

PHL WENK HIVA OSA HIVA OSA

5

Outputs 1.1

Main results for housing expenses, affordability, private renting (see WP 4), housing subsidies and the housing policy indicators related to this (HIVA)

March 2014

1.2

Main results for features of the dwellings, housing quality and renovation and the housing policy indicators related to this (OSA)

March 2014

1.3

Main results for aspects of energy and energy subsidies (PHL)

December 2013

1.4

Main results concerning housing choices, with special focus on the geography and the dynamics of housing pathways by looking at the last residence change and the motivations to move either into or out of urban, suburban or rural areas (WENK)

December 2013

1.5

Thematical papers

December 2015

It will be decided later whether outputs 1.1 - 1.4 will result in separate papers or can be put together in one report.

I WP 2.

Measuring vacancy rate, non-official residents, an'cl informal housing

Content To measure the vacancy rate as weil as non-official residents, various approaches need to be combined, as a complete register of dwellings is not available in Flanders. 1. This research starts with an assessment of the possibilities offered by cadastre data to come to a good registry of housing in Flanders. In the past, there were doubts about the usability of the cadastre as the information within it was suspected to be not in compliance with reality. For example, it is not clear to what extent informal subdivisions of single dwellings into multiple smaller housing units or apartments lead to an underestimate of the total number of housing units. Recently, the cadastre service (AAPD) has expanded its role from aregistry used only for property taxation into a patrimony documentation service, which hopefully offers new opportunities for research. The analysis of the cadastre is split in two tracks. First, a general overview for Flanders as a whole of the correspondence between household registry and cadastre is carried out at the municipal (and/or statistical sector) level, including GIS-analysis of the corresponding Cadmap. Privacy issues will clearly put limits to the results to be obtained within this research track. Second, these results are checked on the terrain based on a number of case studies or a number of municipalities . . In addition to this analysis, previous exercises carried out by other research institutions (Surkeyn 2005) or government bodies (notably some of the Flemish provinces such as West Flanders) will be investigated. 2. A second track is to check the data above with other existing but fragmentary inventories of nonofficial housing. As far as student rooms are concerned, the registries of universities and higher education institutions and/or the cities and municipalities that host them will be checked. Some municipalities have records of second homes, notably in the coastal region, in order to levy a tax on second homes. Good estimates of the number of second homes for this reg ion are available from previous research. The research will gather the registries of other municipalities who might also hold records of second homes (the university city of Leuven will for example start to levy a tax on second

6

homes as many young graduates who start their housing career in the city do not take up an official residence there to escape high municipal taxes). Finally, the vacancy data compiled by the municipalities and centralized by the Flemish government will be checked. Other possible sources are estimates and inventories of refugee organizations, federal and other estimates of 'illegal' immigrants, etc. in order to estimate the number of informal and nonofficial housing. 3. Finally, a general estimate of non-official housing, vacancy and informal housing is compiled through a comparison of all data sources inventoried in the first two tracks. 4. A comparative research track is included that looks at how housing registries and data on nonofficial housing are held in neighboring countries, as weil as on estimates of the number of second homes. Planning of research activities Activities

20122014

Comparative and literature review of foreign housing registry systems, vacancy and second homes

.



p.m .

OSA

3 1

OSA

•

Follow up on existing registries and provincial registries (where available)

2012

Cadastre data research -

Household registry and cadastre data check

-

including spatial analysis Cad map

CES

Inventories of other databases and registries

2013 2014 2015

-

Student rooms

-

Vacancy

-

Second homes

Research on cadastre data, household registry and other registries in selected municipalities

2 1

OSA

Research in selected municipalities (cont'd)

2 2

OSA

CES

CES

-

Outputs: 2.1

Report on the correspondence between household and cadastre registry for Flanders as a whole and overview of other available inventories as listed under 2

December 2012

2.2

Detailed estimate for vacancy for a number of Flemish municipalities where the most complete registries as listed under point 2. are available

December 2014

2.3

Estimates about the vacancy rate and estimates of the number of nonofficial and informal housing for Flanders as a whoie. This will necessarily be a crude approximation, obtained by an extrapolation of the municipal samples, and comparisons with vacancy data of neighboring countries

December 2014

2.4

Recommendations for local and regional government to improve housing registries

December 2014

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Literature Meert, H., Bourgeois, M. & De Rijck, T. (2003), 'Omvang en ruimtelijk-economische dimensie van het grijze wooncircuit in Vlaanderen', onderzoeksrapport PBO 1998, ISEG-KUL, Leuven. SURKYN J., DEBOOSERE P. (2005), 'Een vergelijking tussen census en kadaster: Empirisch onderzoek naar de vergelijkbaarheid van administratieve data met de census. Research report', VUB, Brussel, 49p. Gallent, N., Mace, A., Tewdwr-Jones, and Mark (2005), 'Second homes. European perspectives and UK policies', Ashgate, Aldershot.

I WP 3

The bottom end of the housing market

General The call explicitly asks to research the bottom end of the housing market in order to get more insight in the poor housing conditions and the pathways to and out of the bottom end. People living at th is bottom end are difficult to reach with traditional quantitative research methods. In addition, the interest to research that part of the housing market is almost non-existent. As a consequence, the existing information is old, limited and fragmented. The information that comes to the forefront is often transferred either via the media (often linked to scandals or contested policy actions) or reports from field organi• sations dealing with (fragments) of the poor population. The only comprehensive research on marginal housing conditions was done at the end of the 1990s and was also financed by the Flemish government (Meert 1998; Meert et al, 2003; Meert et al 2005). Besides extensive 'stock-taking', the researchers tested for the first time the 'housing pathways' approach (see Clapham 2005) which revealed the link between precarious housing conditions in urban and rural areas (see especially Meert & Bourgeois 2005). Living at the bottom end of the housing market is often characterized by successive temporary periods of private rent, ownership and social rent in urban and rural areas. A limited number of cases in the SRW research (De Decker, Meeus & Claessens 2011 & Segers & De Decker 2011) confirmed the existence of this often complex and whimsical housing path. Methodology The aim of this proposal is to further use this pathways approach that was successfully employed in the SRW research (the previous 'Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen') mainly in a middle class setting (De Decker, Meeus & Claessens 2011) in order to reveal the dynamic housing pathways through the bottom end of the housing market. Since the bottom end mostly stays out of sight in mainstream research, three different methodological strategies will be central in this four-year research period: 1. A permanent focus will be on the dynamic between periods of residence in housing provided by the state or by organisations in all kinds of forms and periods of residence on the private housing market. In the context of the life course, housing provided by the state is often only a limited period. We will therefore develop a permanent awareness for the relationships with situations of residence before and after periods of state (or organisations) provided housing. 2. A focus will be on groups who stay out of the radar in large scale surveys for instanee because of their temporary or irregular residence on the Belgian housing market. This is a typical problem with surveys that are based on 'citizenship' status or domiciIe in order to reach respondents. In order to reach these groups, a permanent focus will be on the development of explorative and innovative methods (see Meeus 2012). 3. In line with the previous point, the value of information about housing circumstances provided by diverse 'outreach workers' will be evaluated. A lot of public and private organisations are confronted with poor and vulnerable people living in marginal housing conditions, either through their own working (e.g. homeless reception houses; organisations where poor people take the word, psychiatrie institutions, prisons ... ) or because they come into the houses of their clients (e.g. home care, doctors, ... ). After taking stock of the relevant organisations, using in-depth interviews and analysing their registration systems, we will research to what extent their information is of use and if so, how it can be

8

made available in a more structural way. The information obtained will not only deal with poor housing problems and paths in and out of it, but also with the experience of the organisations (e.g. homeless services, psychiatric institutions, prisons) to find affordable housing for their clients. Tasks Three different tasks will be executed during the four year period in which the abovementioned methodological strategies will often be at the forefront of the research. First of all, three thematic and policy oriented papers will be written on the basis of the SRW research. The focus will be on three crucial themes that surfaced during the SRW research: a. raising children in the city: why young middle class families leave the urban environment. b. etnocentrism and the precarious support for social mix in Flanders. c. the employment career of women in a partnership and its relationship with the household housing pathway. Secondly, the housing pathways of people leaving three forms of public organisations will be investigated. The focus is on people leaving special youth care, prisons (the risk of becoming homeless after detention in Flanders has recently been notified by Demeersman 2008) and psychiatric institutions. The main goals of the research are (1) to find out about the cjifficulties public organisations experience wh en looking for housing for their former or ambulant client~ (for instance in case of electronic surveillance or ambulant care in psychiatric hospitais), (2) to which level former or ambulant clients are supported in their search for housing and (3) to formulate recommendations about how the outflow from these organisations can be monitored or supported better. In a first phase in-depth interviews with responsibles of organisations will be conducted, and in a second phase a limited number of (former) clients will be incorporated in the research. During the first phase, the information of public organisations and outreach workers about the bottom of the housing market will be listed. Thirdly, we wil I focus on the housing pathways of Eastern-European work migrants in Flanders. In 2008 the 'Kataract decree' was voted in the Flemish parliament. In this decree, the housing standards for foreign seasonal workers, often employed in 'shortage occupations' were specified and harmonised with the student housing standards, assuming that both represent 'temporary' forms of housing. After a transition period, the new regulations were brought into vogue from January 1st 2011. The main goal of the research is to evaluate the effect of the new regulation (1) on the housing pathways of the work migrants and (2) on the strategies of employers to find seasonal workers in different spatial settings (urban-rural). The research methodology will consist of local case studies in which employers as weil as workers and possibly meso-Ievel actors such as temporary staffing agencies will be interviewed. In order to get more detailed insight in the current state of affairs in the field, the research will start with the organisation of a workshop with foreign researchers who share experiences with this research topic.

9

Planning of research activities Activities 2012


Responsible institution / partner

3 thematic papers based on SRW research

4,8

WENK

Housing pathways of people who left public institutions (main focus on special youth care, detention centres/imprisonment, psychiatrie hospitais)

4,8

WENK

2013

Continuation of 2012 Housing pathways research and reporting

2,4

WENK

2014

Housing pathways of Eastern European work migrants in Flanders

2015

literature study on research methodology

1

WENK

organisation of workshop with other researchers

1

WENK

start-up of research

4

WENK

9,6

WENK

Housing pathways of Eastern European work migrants

-

continuation research

-

reporting

. I

Outputs 3.1

Three thematic papers -

raising children in the city: why young middle class families leave the urban environment.

-

etnocentrism and the precarious support for social mix in Flanders.

-

the employment career of women in a partnership and its relationship with the household housing pathway

June 2012

3.2

Report on housing pathways of people leaving public organizations

March 2013

3.3

Literature review concerning housing pathways of Eastern European work migrants and results of the workshops

December 2014

3.4

Report of the study concerning housing pathways of Eastern European work migrants, by the end of 2015

December 2015

References Clapham, D. (2005) 'The meaning of housing: a pathways approach' Bristol: The Policy Press. Segers, K .. & De Decker, P. (2011) 'Woonpaden van kwetsbare bewoners: een gevalstudie met (ex-)thuislozen in Oostende. Onderzoeksrapport voor het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen. De Decker, P., Meeus, B. & Claessens, B. (2011) 'Woonpaden in Vlaanderen' onderzoeksrapport Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen. Demeersman, T. (2008) 'Thuis loosheid na detentie' Beleidsdossier, Steunpunt Algemeen Welzijnswerk. Meert, H. (1998), 'De geografie van het overleven: bestaansonzekere huishoudens en hun strategieên in een stedelijke en rurale context', ph.d, Geografie, KUL, Leuven. Meert, H. & Bourgeois, M. (2005) 'Between rural and urban slums: a geography of pathways through homelessness. Housing Studies 20(1): 107-25. Meert, H., Bourgeois, M. & De Rijck, T. (2003), 'Omvang en ruimtelijk-economische dimensie van het grijze wooncircuit in Vlaanderen', onderzoeksrapport PBO 1998, ISEG-KUL, Leuven. Meert, H., Bourgeois, M. & De Rijck, T. (2005), 'Een geografie van het wonen aan de onderkant in Vlaanderen', in De Decker, P., Pannecoucke, I. & L. Goossens (ed), Wonen aan de onderkant, Garant, Antwerpen, p. 139-156. Meeus, B. (2012) 'How to 'catch' floating populations? Research and the fixing of migration in space and time'. Ethnic and Racial Studies 35(10).

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I WP 4. Private land lords Content 1.

Focus on private landlords in the Housing Survey 2012

The private rental market in Flanders is dominated by individual land lords. In 2005 86% of all tenants rented a dwelling from a private landlord and 7,2% of all Flemish households were landlords. (Vandenbroucke, 2007). The housing survey 2012 offers a good opportunity to gather information about private landlords. If the sample size of this survey would be about 6.800 households, the sample of landlords would be approximately 500. In the draft questionnaire several questions are included concerning reasons for renting a dwelling, expected return on income, rent level setting, selection of tenants, attitudes towards investments for improving housing quality and energy saving, ... Basic analyses of these data for private landlords will be inciuded in the outputs listed in 1.1. Additional analysis of these data concerning private renting can be the thematic issue 2015. This implies no additional research time since this is included in 1.1. In case additional information is wanted concerning the 14% professionallandlords or concerning attitudes and behavior of real estate agencies, than additional data gathering is requested. We suggest to include these research questions than in ad hoc research (see 5). 2.

Extension of the return on investment model for setting rent prices, equilibrium model

Remarkable is that in most countries house prices increased much more than rents. Current research (ad hoc research task concerning rental prices) used a return on investment model for setting rent prices and extended this with an equilibrium model to explain these evolutions. This model can be further elaborated into a more detailed scenario-tooI. In the near future, some interesting comparative research studies will be published by Christine Whitehead (LSE) and Sarah Monk (Cambridge). These do not only give an overview of the rental markets in different countries, but also take into account the characteristics of the social housing and owner-occupied markets. A literature review of these studies will serve as a complement and benchmark for the equilibrium model developed. This research is heavily intertwined with '3.3 Prices, the housing market and the effects of government policy'. The study should lead to policy recommendations to activate the rental market. Planning of research activities Activities


Responsible institution or partner

p.m.

HIVA

(included in 1.1) 2012

Extension of the equilibrium model: literature review + interviews

1

CES

2013

Focus on 'Private Landlords' in Housing survey 2012

p.m.

HIVA

Extension of the equilibrium model: update and extent model (regional differences, income differences, selective impact housing allowances ... )

1

CES

2014

Extension of the equilibrium model: incorporating results 'Private Landlords' on Housing survey 2012

1

CES

2015

Extension of the equilibrium model: incorporating results from '3.3 Prices, the housing market and effects of government policy' and report

1

CES

11

Outputs: 4.1

Results concerning private landlords included in report Housing Survey 2012 (output 1.1).

March 2014

4.2

Report concerning the equilibrium model

June 2015

4.3

Final report concerning private rental market, including policy conclusions.

December 2015

I WP 5. Analyses of the Epe-database Content As a consequence of the implementation of the EPBD concerning the introduction of energy performance certificates (EPC) in Flanders, a EPC database has been set up that up to now contains more than 370.000 certificates of existing houses, apartments and collective residential buildings. It is expected that the following years more than 100.000 new certificates per year will be entered in this database, thus representing a growing information source çm the energy performance of the existing Flemish housing stock. As requested in the call, a first track will consist of an in depth statistica I analysis of the EPC database. This will in a first step consist of establishing a statistica I analysis model, for single and multiple parameter frequency analysis and correlation analysis. The statistical analysis model will be established in a way that it facilitates a yearly update of the content analysis of the EPC database, during the project by PHL and after the project by VEA. The content analysis then will focus on knowledge acquisition about the average energy performance of the dwelling stock, the presence of energy saving measures (insulation, double glazing, condensing boilers, ventilation system, ... ), the relation between energy performance and construction year, type of building, location, role of building envelope vs. heating system, identification and hierarchy of weak points in the energy performance, etc. In the analysis, distinction will be made between rented and sold dwellings. The yearly update of this content analysis will also lead to insights in the evolution of the overall energy performance of the existing housing stock. This insight can be refined by confronting the evolution of the EPC with the data on the use of energy subsidies, on a provincial, municipal or other territorial level. The results of the EPC will be confronted with additional information sources, such as the results from the new Woonsurvey and from the ongoing Eurostat survey among 1800 households. Based on this confrontation and possible other information sources, the degree of representativeness of the EPCdata for the entire existing dwelling stock will be analysed (statistica I deviations). Furthermore, from the results of the Woonsurvey for the dwellings with EPC, it will be possible to make a first estimation of the relation between EPC and real energy cost, under the condition that a coupling between EPC database and Woonsurvey is allowed. Under the same condition, the data of the Woonsurvey will serve as input data for the hedonic pricing analysis in WP 9. The Woonsurvey will contain questions, both for house owners and for tenants on the impact of the EPC: whether the EPC had an impact on their choice for the house they bought or rent and whether the EPC has been used to negotiate on the selling price or rental price. However, as the number of interviewees that has been confronted with an EPC within the Woonsurvey can be expected to be rather low, this analysis wil I only lead to a first rough estimation. Based on this statistical analysis the energy indicator1 in the set of indicators for the Flemish housing policy (Winters e.a., 2010) will be revised (see also WP 6. Development of indicators).

1 The energy indicator (indicator 9) now is defined as 'the distribution of E- and K-values of dwellings that have been build, sold or rented during the last years". This indicator is however only applicable to new buildings and is not an output of the EPe for sold or rented dwellings. Therefore a revised indicator for existing dwellings will be needed to be developed.

12

As wil! be explained in WP 7, EPe data aggregated on statistica I sector level, will also be used to evaluate the energy subsidy policy. In order to improve the current EPe, a second track will consist of an analysis of the information sources used to establish the EPe. During inspection, several information sources can be used in order to deduce the presence of insulation, the type of double glazing, type of boiler, etc. and use of these information sources has to be marked in the EPe software. In case no additional information sources are available, the EPe procedure provides default choices depending on construction year, type of construction, etc. By analyzing the frequency of use of default choices versus use of additional information sources, insights can be gained on the accuracy of the current EPe and the representativeness of the current EPe for the real building situation. Furthermore, by coupling the EPe database with the energy subsidy database (if allowed), taking into account the date of the EPe and of the energy subSidy, the inclusion of known energy saving measures in the EPe can be controlled. Depending on the outcome of these analyses, the need for use of additional information will be deduced and also new information sources will be explored, including information on occupant behaviour, energy bills, etc., in order to improve the data collection for the EPe. The tailor-made advice module th at will be developed in 2012 by VEA will be included in this analysis. To what extent this improved data collection might lead to changes in the EPe calculation method, will be determined. Planning of research activities Research time in months

Responsible institution / partner

5 1

PHL

In depth statistical analysis and identification of energy indicators

3,5

PHL

Confrontation of EPC data with other information sources (Woonsurvey, Eurostat)

1,5

Analysis of degree of representativeness of EPC data for the entire existing dwelling stock

2

Relation between EPC and energy cost for Woonsurvey

1 1

Activities

2012

•

Set up of statistical analysis model of EPC database In depth statistical analysis of EPC database

2013

2014

Update analysis and analysis of evolution

2015

Improvement of data collection for EPC Update analysis and analysis of evolution

3 1

PHL

PHL

13

Outputs 5.1

Statistica I analysis model for the EPC database

December 2012

5.2

Report with a statistica I in depth analysis of the energy performance characteristics of the current EPC dwelling stock

December 2013

5.3

Revision of the indicator for energy-efficiency

December 2013

5.4

Report on the degree of representativeness of the EPC-data for the entire existing dwelling stock

December 2014

5.5

Report on the relation between EPC and energy co st

December 2014

5.6

Report on the evolution of energy performance characteristics of the EPC dwelling stock

December 2014

5.7

Report on the representativeness of the current and revised EPC (including tailor-made advice module) for the real building situation and proposals for improvement of the data collection for the EPC and for an adapted calculation method

December 2014

5.8

Report with proposals for improvement of the data collection for the i EPC and for an adapted calculation method

December 2015

5.9

Report on the evolution of energy performance characteristics of the EPC dwelling stock

December 2015

References: Hens H., Verbeeck G. & Verdonck B. (2001), Impact of energy efficiency measures on the CO2 emissions in the residential sector, a large scale analysis. Energy and Buildings, vol. 33(3), pp. 275-281. Verbeeck G., Achten K., Dooms G. & Dreesen A. (2008), Scenarios to achieve the CO2 emission reduction target for 2020 in the Belgian building stock. In: Proceedings of Building Physics Symposium, 29-31 October, Leuven.

I WP 6.

Development of indicators

Content 'Monitoring' can be seen as the collection of data concerning specific aspects or factors within a policy context. Monitoring as a process is do ne in a systematic way and based on periodic measurement or registration'. A 'monitoring system' can be defined as the total of procedures and means to collect, save, process and report data. Indicators are the components of the monitoring system (De Peuter e.a., 2007). In Winters e.a. (2010) a proposal is made for a monitoring system for Flemish housing policy. The proposal includes a set of indicators that allows the Flemish government to monitor developments on the housing market and the outputs of housing policy. The proposed indicators are based on scientific knowledge and on the actual policy framework, taking into account the availability of data. The Steunpunt Wonen wil! update this set of indicators once a year taking into account the progress of knowledge, the availability of data and the evolution of policy. Specific attention will be paid to: the coherence of the housing policy indicators with Pact2020 indicators the coherence with Eurostat indicators based on EU-SILC energy performance of dwellings (see 1.4) new policy directions of the new Flemish government 2014

14

In Winters e.a. (2010) the development of several new indicators is advised. Development of three of these indicators will be part of the work carried out in other work packages (reference to this is also made in the specific work packages): an indicator for housing quality based on the results of the technical screening of the dwelling which is part ofthe Housing Survey 2012 (see WP 1); an indicator for availability of housing in general: development of a methodology and an indicator for a systematic follow up of the evolution in demand and supply on the housing market at the locallevel is included in WP 9 (spatial housing analysis); development of an index for house prices based on repeated sales is included in WP 9. Another suggestion was to develop an indicator for the availability of housing in situations of extreme housing exclusion. Recent studies of LUCAS (KULeuven) ordered by the Flemish Minister of Welfare investigate the possibilities and instruments for systematical data gathering concerning as weil the demand as the supply side for housing in these situations. The results of the studies will be used to develop a registration system for monitoring demand and supply. We wil I investigate the opportunities of this registration system for defining an indicator. This is included in the research time of HIVA within this WP 6. Conclusions will be included in the update of the list of indicators by the end of 2012. Possibilities for development of indicators for the quality of the housing environment and social inclusion/integration will be explored by researchers of OTB. Marietta Haffner (together with a data-analyst) will contribute to this project on two dimensions: development of indicators for international comparison and comparing the position of Belgium (Flanders) on the housing indicators to th at of other countries. For the former aim indicators would have to be developed or used that allow for comparison of housing systems on different dimensions, especially on inputs and outputs of housing systems. This exercise would include the evaluation of possible databases for the indicators (such as EU-SILC or LIS). This exercise will allow not only for a determination of the position of Belgium (Flanders) on the indicators, but also for input in the discussion about and the development of the Flemish indicators within an international perspective. For the development of some other advised indicators additional research time is necessary and can be subject of ad hoc research tasks. This is the case for: development of an indicator for the time a house is for sale, as indicator for availability of dwellings in the ownership market; update and refinement of the methodology to estimate the number of households eligible or in need for social housing; development of an indicator for universal design of lifetime housing; development of an indicator for sustainable housing. When asked, the Steunpunt will discuss the indicators with stakeholders. The Flemish Housing Council put the discussion of the housing policy indicators on its working program for 2011-2012 and will prepare an advice to the Minister in early spring 2012. For this reason a working group of the Flemish Housing Council will be established to discuss the indicators in depth. The Steunpunt will contribute to this discussion and take into account the relevant remarks. The responsibility for this work will be linked to the function of the coordinator of the Steunpunt, since the coordinator has a bird's eye-view of the research in all work packages of the Steunpunt. Sien Winters, coordinator, also was the first author of Winters e.a. (2010). In this way the set of housing policy indicators has the potential to become a strong instrument for housing policy.

15

Research activities Activities



Update of the set of indicators for Flemish housing policy

1

HIVA

House price index

Incl. inWP 9

CES

Exploration for indicators for the quality of the housing environment and social inclusion/integration

2

OTB

2013


1

HIVA

2014


1

HIVA

Indicator for availability of housing in situations of extreme housing exclusion

IncLin WP 1

OSA


2012

2015

1

HIVA

Indicator for the availability of housing

Incl. inWP 9

CES

Exploration for indicators to measure effeetiveness and efficiency of housing systems

2

OTB

Outputs: 6.1

Yearly update of Winters e.a. (2010)

December

6.2

House price index (as a result of WP 9)

December 2012

6.3

Paper concerning possible indicators for the quality of the housing environment and social inclusionlintegration

December 2012

6.4

Indicator for energy performance (as a result of WP 5)

December 2013

6.5

Indicator for housing quality (as a result of WP 1)

December 2014

6.6

Indicator for availability of housing (as a result of WP 9)

December 2015

6.7

Paper concerning indicators to measure effectiveness and efficiency of housing systems

December 2015

References: De Peuter B., De Smedt J., Van Dooren W. & Bouckaert G. (2007), 'Handleiding beleidsevaluatie. Deel 2: monitoring van beleid?' Steunpunt Bestuurlijke Organisatie Vlaanderen, Leuven. Winters S., Buyst E., Elsinga M., Heylen K., Le Roy M., Tratsaert K., Vandekerckhove B. & Vastmans F. (2010), "Voorstel tot indicatoren voor het Vlaamse woonbeleid", 55 p.

I WP 7:

Scope and effects of housing policy

Content In 2011 Heylen en Winters (forthcoming) performed an elaborate analysis of the distribution of housing related subsidies in Flanders, within the framework of the Space and Housing Policy Centre. The subsidies at stake were the following: subsidies involved in social lending and social housing, the adjustment an improvement premium (VAP), the renovation premium, housing allowances and the fiscal advantages related to housing (mortgage tax relief, reduced VAT rate on renovation costs, reduced transaction tax rate and reduced imputed rent tax). Regarding tax advantages, results were drawn from the Housing Survey of 2005, whereas administrative data were used for analyzing the other housing subsidies. The user cost method was applied for calculating the subsidy levels (Poterba, 1992; Haffner & Heylen, 2011).

16

The research call for the Steunpunt Wonen demands a yearly update of the distribution analysis for all housing subsidies, an application of the method to the subsidization of owner-occupation and housing land and the development of a method for the simulation of distributive effects for proposed or potential housing subsidy changes. Since a yearly update for all instruments would consume a lot of research time and since distributive effects of housing subsidies will not change that much in time, we propose only one update, in 2015, this is 5 years after the first analysis. In 2012 we propose to continue our work of 2011 with the distributive analyses of the Flemish subsidies that were left out in the recent study of Heylen & Winters (forthcoming): subsidized owner-occupation and subsidized housing land. In order to evaluate the impact of the energy subsidy policy on the redistribution of means between socio-economie groups, a one-to-one coupling between fiscal income data and energy subsidies is needed. However, as up to now, it cannot be guaranteed that such coupling will be possible, PHL will estimate the redistribution by combining fiscal income data and energy subsidy data and, if possible also EPC on statistical sector level. As data on mean net taxabie income are freely available on statistical sector level, they can be confronted with the data of energy subsidies aggregated for the same statistica I sector levels. If possible, the EPC data will also be aggregated to the same level as an additional information input. This territorial confrontation of information on income, use of subsidies and energy performance of the building stock will lead to insights in the combined regional distribution of these parameters, and thus indirectly to insights in the redistributive effect of energy subsidies. In 2013 a micro-simulation model will be developed for estimating the distributive effects of proposed or potential changes regarding housing subsidies. This model will run on data of the Woonsurvey 2012. In Flanders, the current FLEMOSI project (2009-2013) is an ambitious project in the field of socio-economie ex ante policy evaluation, that is being developed by research units of varying universities. The FLEMOSI project includes the Mefisto-simulation model, which runs on SILC-data and allows for analyzing the effect on micro-level of changes in varying fields of socio-economie policy. We willlink our effort to the experience and output of this project. Given the limited time (3 months), we will limit ourselves to the development of a simulation model which makes abstract of behavioral reactions of households. We will demonstrate the possibilities of our model by modeling the distributive effect of several examples of housing policy changes. In the Steunpunt Wonen we intend to apply the same methodology as in the previous study, in which the international literature on the topic is followed (e.g. Flood & Yates, 1989; Hills, 1991; Hancock & Monroe, 1992). A document will be drafted with explanation on the methodological framework, the available data sourees for Flanders and the possibilities of future distribution analyses of housing subsidies. It will also be clarified how the methodology can be applied to simulation analyses, in case the Flemish government wants to perform a distributive simulation of a new policy measure or the adjustment of an existing one. OTB will contribute to this project by an international comparison of the position of Belgium (Flanders) on the distribution of subsidies across households. This exercise will include the evaluation of possible databases for the indicators (such as EU-SILC or LIS), but probably it will be beUer to confine the comparison to Flanders and the Netherlands, once the Flemish Survey 2012 and Dutch WoON 2012 will be available. Comparison will allow for basing policy choices of the Flemish government within an international perspective. For 2013 we will start with a comparison of the distribution of subsidies across households between Flanders and the Netherlands. In 2014 we can broaden the approach to more European countries. The collaboration between OTB and HIVA is aimed to result in the publication of one or more artieles in international housing journais.

17

Research activities

2012

2013 2014

2015

Activities



Distribution analysis of subsidized owner-occupation and subsidized housing land

2

HIVA

Development of a simulation model for estimating the distributive effects of proposed or potential new subsidies or subsidy adjustments

4,6

HIVA

Distribution of housing subsidies: Flanders compared to the Netherlands

2

OTB

p.m.

HIVA

Distribution of housing subsidies in an international comparison

2

OTB

Start up of the analysis on statistica I sector level of fiscal income, use of energy subsidy and EPC

2

PHL

Update of distribution analyses for Flanders. The selection of subsidies is made in function of policy priorities and is determined in the annual plan , Report on the analysis on statistica I sector level of fiscal income, energy subsidy and EPC '

3

HIVA

2

PHL

Outputs: 7.1

paper with distribution analysis of subsidized owner-occupation and subsidized housing land,

June 2012

7.2

simulation model for estimating the distributive effe cts of proposed or potential new subsidies or subsidy adjustments

June 2012

7.3

paper on the distribution of housing subsidies in Flanders and the Netherlands

December 2013

7.4

paper on the distribution of housing subsidies in an international comparison

December 2014

7.5

Paper with analysis on statistical sector level of fiscal income, use of energy subsidy and EPe

December 2015

7.6

update of distribution analysis for Flanders

December 2015

References: Flood J. & Yates J. (1989), Housing subsidies and income distribution, Housing Studies, vol. 4(3), pp. 193-210. Haffner M. & Heylen K. (2011), User costs and housing expenses. Towards a more comprehensive approach of affordability, Housing Studies, vol. 26(4), pp. 1-22.

Hancock K. & Munro M. (1992), Housing subsidies, inequality and affordability: evidence from Glasgow, Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(4), pp. 71-97. Hilis J. (1991), Unravelling Housing Finance: Subsidies, Benefits and Taxation, Oxford: Clarendon Press. Poterba J.M. (1992), Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers, The American Economic Review, vol. 82(2), pp. 237242.

18

I WP 8

Flows in and out of social housing

Content The share of the social housing stock in Flanders with 6% is limited. Waiting lists for social housing are long, as weil for a dwelling from the social housing associations (SHM's) as from the social rental agencies (SVK's). The small social housing stock therefore has to be managed efficiently. But very little is known about the flows in and out of social housing. In this working package we try to get a picture from these flows, based on qualitative and quantitative analyses. 1.

General introduction Literature review concerning flows in and out of social housing, clarification of the theoretical concepts: social exclusion, segregation ... Comparison of the target group of traditional social housing and of the social rental agencies in terms of income, household composition etc.

2.

Qualitative analysis

A part of the in depth interviews from the former Steunpunt R.uimte en Wonen was carried out in social housing neighborhoods. The interview material will be scre~ned from the point of view of moving to and out of social housing. A limited number of additional interviews will be carried out. Also the information provided by outreach public organisations will be systematised and evaluated and the possibility to obtain a more structural monitoring system will be explored. The qualitative analysis will lead to hypotheses that will be tested in the quantitative analysis. 3.

Quantitative analysis

The figure below shows the flows in and out of social housing. All households

Theoretical target group Social housing Candidate-tenants

STREAM OUT

INTERNAL MUTATION

Social housing includes a stock of dwellings. That stock is temporarily occupied by households. Households stream in and are matched to dwellings. Within this stock, households sometimes change dwellings whereas after a certain period of time households stream out. There are hence diverse streams and matches between households and dwellings in social housing. In addition, a duration element is at stake, for example the duration a household is on the waiting list or the time span that a household is entitled to social housing but yet not appears on the waiting list. For many years already the VMSW (Flemish Agency for Social Housing) is investing in the documentation of candidate-tenants, tenants, allocations of dwellings and dwelling features. Since 2002 data on social tenants are available, for instance about the taxabie income, the age of the head of the household, the number of household members/children, the dwelling type and the number of dwelling units

19

in an apartment building. From 2008 onwards, more information is at hand, for example about the exact household composition, the market rent of the dwelling and the age of all household members. The data also include the time of entry and departure from the dweIling. Therefore, the data enables duration analyses and allows for a study of the stream in and out of social housing. After construction of a database diverse research hypotheses in this field can be tested. We provide some examples. 1° Does social housing includes a phenomenon of exclusion? Theoretical definition of exclusion Formulation of a theoretical hypothesis Empirical test of the hypothesis E.g. is the average income of the tenants decreasing? Is this the consequence of decreasing incomes of the current tenants or the consequence of the influx of poorer new tenants? 2° What determines the stream in and out of the waiting list? In what way does the profile of the target group of social housing differs from the profile of the group on the waiting list? (data sources: Housing survey and VMSW data) Wh at is the profile of the group that disappears from the waiting list, without streaming in? Is there a difference according to duration on the waiting list? Is the duration on the waiting list - before the dwelling allocation - dependant on characteristics of the household or the assigned dwelling? 3° Does the stream in and out of social housing leads to more social segregation? Theoretical definition of social segregation Formulation of a theoretical hypothesis Empirical test of the hypothesis E.g.: Do households with specific characteristics enter a particular type of dwellings or a specific area or a particular price range? What are the effects of renovations of buildings on the tenants' composition in the short and long run? These analyses are relevant for policy preparation for varying reasons. Policy recommendations can be related to the allocation rules, the rent calculation or the use of the waiting list as an indicator for housing need, as is the case for the recently introduced 'rental premium'. We suggest to take time to develop the methodology and database in 2014 and hope to be able to draw first general conclusions in the same year. In 2015 and 2016 we wil! proceed with this work, each year focusing on one of the themes mentioned above, based on an updated dataset. This work wil! be done by HIVA. A similar methodology could be followed for analyzing the stream in and out the Social Rental Agencies. However, data for this are not available in a central database as for the traditional social housing. We investigate the possibilities to make similar analysis and to attract new data from the rental agencies.

20

Planning of research activities Activities



2012

-

-

HIVA

2013

General introduction (3.2.1):

2,4

WENK

4,8

WENK

6

HIVA

3,6

HIVA

- literature review - comparison of target group of SHM's and SVK's 2014

Oualitative analysis:

-

Analysis of former interviews Additional interviews Evaluation information provided by outreach organisations

Ouantitative analysis:

-

2015

Literature study: 0

Methodology of duration analysis: useful methods, risks, data conditions ...

0

Internationalliterature on the topic: e.g. , studies in other countries

.

-

Preparation of dataset: conversion of VMSWdataset to dataset suited for duration analyses

-

First general analysis

Ouantitative analysis:

-

Update dataset Update general results + thematic analysis

Report and policy conclusions

HIVA+WENK

Outputs: 8.1

Literature review concerning flows in and out of social housing, clarification of the theoretical concepts: social exclusion, segregation ... (WENK)

December 2013

8.2

Comparison of the target group of traditional social housing and of the social rental agencies in terms of income, household composition etc. (WENK)

December 2013

8.3

Results of the qualitative analysis (WENK)

June 2014

8.4

Literature review quantitative analysis, dataset prepared for duration analysis, first results from the quantitative analysis (HIVA)

December 2014

8.5

Report with quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis and policy conclusions (HIVA + WENK)

December 2015

21

I WP 9.

Prices, the housing market and the effects of government policy

In this section we give an overview of the project for economie oriented research questions. More specifically we will subdivide the analysis in four different topics which can be considered as the main building blocks: developing property price indices (measuring the price evolutions), hedonic pricing analysis for the valuation of individual properties (explaining the individual house price by its main characteristics/components, e.g. age, location ... ), general market mechanisms and a regional housing market model. For each topic we indicate how it can give answers to policy questions. 1.

House price index

Currently, no good house price index is available in Flanders. The reclassification of dwellings into the three categories apartments, regular houses and villa's between 2004-2005 drastically changed the average house price of each category and showed how important this composition effect is between these categories. Throughout time one might expect similar composition effe cts within each category. Characteristics of apartments sold ten years ago might substantially differ from the characteristics of currently sold apartments. AAPD transaction data offers the opportunity to build a repeat sales index that eliminates these composition effe cts by looking only at house prices th at have been sold twice. Moreover, it allows to make a distinction between price changes of dwellings with or without renovation (as far as a permission was needed to renovate). This analysis is similar to the construction of the rent price index that was elaborated in the previous policy research centre . •

Output: A house price index that can serve different purposes in the field of affordability over time by the end of 2012. The index can be useful to yearly update reference house prices used in legislation, ... as e.g. for maximum dwelling prices for social loans and for housing policy instruments with a territorial selectivity (see 4). 2.

Hedonic house price analysis

Hedonic pricing models explain the prices of individual houses based on their characteristics. In 2011 the Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen developed a hedonic pricing model for private rents. In 2013 we will develop a similar model for dwelling prices. The output of such models will be applied to different domains. It gives an indication of location effects, which is useful input for research track 4 "Territoria I selectivity of housing policy" . It estimates house prices for different sets of housing characteristics. In this way one can model the relationship between house prices and living standard conditions, incorporating regional differences. It measures how households value energy related topics, (EPC value, high efficiency boilers, ... ). The outcome of this energy related hedonic analysis will be combined with the results of the analysis of EPC database in 1.4. We wil! set up a framework that allows to measure how households value EPC values. Herefore different datasets will be used: the housing survey, with special attention to central cities, the VMSW dataset (estimated house and rental prices of social dwellings, 2008) immodata we will also analyse the opportunities of AAPD housing data, more specific to what extent sales prices can be linked to cadastral data, and the possibility to link transaction sales prices (AAPD) with EPC data (VEA). Output By the end of 2013: an overview of reference house prices for different sets of characteristics per municipality, according to the needs of such house price estimates in legislation (maximal sales price for socialloans, KI, huiskorting)

22

3.

Regional housing market model.

Spatial differences and temporal dynamics play an important role in the housing market. A cross sectional study, using a simple linear regression often yields biased estimates in the presence of spatial dependency (meaning changes in one municipality influences it's neighbour). Adding the temporal dynamic aspect makes it even a more challenging task. This topic, due its innovative nature, will be part of a PhD project with the central theme "spatial and temporal dynamics in the Flemish housing market". The focus is primarily on the macro-economic dimension of the supply and demand of housing and it's regional differences. As such, it is complimentary to the work in 4. "Territorial selectivity of housing policy". It's a regional extension of previous CES research th at mainly focused on the Flemish Region as a whole (housing market model by Delbeke en Smets, 2007 and Vastmans e.a. fortfcoming). Data gathering is an important input for this research, i.e. the results of 1.2 (measuring vacancy, ... ) and 1.4 (EPC data on the level of statistica I sectors) will be valuable, but in general data gathering is not limited to the field of housing. Outputs: Doctoral dissertation concerning the spatial temporal,dynamic research. The policy oriented output is a regional housing mar~et model, that explains changes in price and supply by economic factors, including prognoses of regional price evolutions and supply of new houses. This research also yields a list of environment indicators. indicator for a systematic follow up of the evolution in demand and supply on the housing market at the local level All outputs will be available by the end of 2015.

4.

Economic overview of the Flemish housing market

The housing market is dominated by economic factors, behavioral effects, different kind of preferences, legislation and interactions between different submarkets. The aim of this section is to bring all specific elements into a broader framework, with as guideline an equilibrium model for housing submarkets (land, rental, home-owners). In 1.3.2 an equilibrium model is developed that shows the interaction between house and rental prices. Also the link between land and house prices will be further explored. Bringing all these interdependencies between markets together in one model would offer a powerful tooi to make scenario's. Our good contacts with the ENHR should serve as an international benchmark for such an integrated pricing framework (comparative studies, workshops, international data). Output This framework offers a scenario-tooi that measures how policy options can impact the different submarkets. It will be available by the end of 2015. Research activities It's hard to fill in the activities on a yearly basis since there is a large overlap between the different modeis. The proposed time frame takes into account the availability of data, existing research, the interaction with other research proposals (e.g.1.2 gives input, we can yield output to 4). This time schedule can yearly be adjusted to policy needs.

23

This research is carried out at CES, and split up into policy research (5 months/year) and a PhD project (6 months/year), financed as a PhD-scholarship.

2012

2013

2014

2015

Activities

Research time in person months


- Spatial and temporal dynamics in the Flemish housing market PhO (literature + data)

6

CES

- House and Rent Price indices

5


6

- hedonic pricing models

5

- Spatial and temporal dynamics in the Flemish housing market PhO (Iiterature + data)

6

- integrating energy results of hedonic pricing models into general framework (with 1.4)

1

- regional housing market model

3

.


6

- regional housing market model

2

- economie overview of the Flemish housing market

4

CES

CES

CES

Outputs 9.1

House price index

December 2012

9.2

Hedonic pricing model

December 2013

9.3

Doctoral dissertation concerning the spatial temporal dynamic research

December 2015

9.4

Regional housing market model

December 2015

9.5

Indicator for availability of housing

December 2015

References: Damen S. (2011), 'Migration, income and house prices. A spatial econometrie analysis in Flanders 2011', paper Master of Economics, K.U.Leuven, promoter prof. Buyst. Delbeke J. & Smets L. (2007), 'De woningmarkt in Vlaanderen. Een onderzoek naar de vraagdeterminanten en renovatiebehoeften'. Departement Ruimtelijke Ordening, Woon beleid en Onroerend Erfgoed, Woonbeleid, Brussel, 126 p. Vastmans F, Buyst E.. , (2011) 'The fundamental role of the interest rate elasticity to explain house priee, paper presented at the ENHR workshop Brussels, March 2011. Vastmans F, Buyst E.., (2011) 'The purchasing power for housing', paper presented at the ENHR conference Toulouse, July 2011. Winters S. (red.) (2011), 'Is wonen in Vlaanderen betaalbaar?', Garant, Antwerpen-Apeldoorn, 192 p.

24

I WP 10. Territorial selectivity of housing policy Content

1.

Rationale & framework

The first year of research on territorial selectivity is devoted to a literature and comparative research on the mechanisms that determine new housing development as weil as territorial selectivity. In order to investigate the mechanisms behind recent trends in housing development, a framework is used that distinguishes between: how housing in prbduced; how housing preferences result in housing decisions. The focus is thus not primarilyon the macro(-economic) dimension of the offer and demand of housing, but rather on the underlying mechanisms, procedures, frictions and tensions that impact on the housing market, but do not seem to be guided by (economic) rationality. This means that both procedures, regulations and traditions qre taken into account, as weil as the role of 'agents', such as dweIlers and promoters, social housing officials, architects, ... and their organizations. Finally, in line with actor-network theory (Latour 2005), also the physical a rtifacts , i.e. dwellings, neighborhoods, landscapes are considered as actors. Indeed, space is not a neutral receptacle in which actions take place, but space and physical artifacts are capable to shape actions (Heynen, Loeckx 1998).

2.

Research on territorial selectiveness

As far as territorial selectiveness is concerned, an analysis of current Flemish (and Belgian) territorially selective housing policies is necessary. The primary spatial categories following the Flemish Housing Code are: 'housing and housing renewal areas' (woon- en woonvernieuwingsgebieden)These are used as spatial categories in various policy instruments (kwaliteitsbewaking, recht van voorkoop, sociaal beheersrecht, realisatie en financiering van sociale woonprojecten, ... ). The current spatial categories are determined on the basis of 1991 data of the Socio-Economic Enquiry (SEE) and statistical sector limits of the same year. Both these sources are now outdated. In addition, more recent SEE data is only available for 2001, as new SEE's will no long er be carried out. In the context of the Decree on 'land and property policy' (Decreet grond- en panden beleid) other territorially selective policies (such as territoria I distribution of objectives for social housing construction, or 'social objective' (sociaal objectief), 'housing in the home region' (wonen in eigen streek)) were introduced. Selection of region's is based on other criteria, e.g. on housing prices. Other instances of territorial selective housing policies are the Vlabinvest program to support the construction of affordable housing in the Flemish urban area around Brussels and recently the proposal to establish a Land Fund with a territorial selective dimension. These various policies use spatial categorisations that do not correspond to the 'housing and housing renewal areas'. In this way a variety of spatial categories has been introduced in housing policy. Also spatial planning uses territorial selective categories that have their impact on housing, such as the zoning plans, density guidelines (15 and 25 dwellings per hectare in rural and urban areas respectively). In addition, there are federal tax measures that are territorially selective such as the measures for a reduced VAT of 6% on new housing construction to replace older constructions in cities ('vervangende nieuwbouw') etc. A research is proposed that includes the following steps: 1. 2.

review of territoria I selective housing policies and territorial selectiveness as a policy goal relationship to other spatial categorizations with relevance for housing

25

3. 4.

possibilities to update existing categorization: which spatial units can be used (updated statistica I sectors or others?) and what criteria can be used in the absence of SEE data? Update of existing categorization if required OR Design of a new spatial categorization and/or recommendations for new spatially selective policy measures if required.

The results of steps 1, 2 and 3 are necessary to determine if a simple update of existing categorization is required or new spatially selective housing policy measures and categorization need to be proposed. To further underpin this decision the results of previous research on regional housing markets (Van Nuffel & Saey 2005) or spatial steering mechanisms for housing (Arts et al. 2011) as weil as an investigation in foreign examples of territorially selective and innovative housing policies are necessary. It is advisable to discuss the relevance of spatially selective housing policies, their effectiveness and possible alternatives with a wider group of research ers, policy makers and stakeholders, in order to come to a balanced decision regarding step 4. The results will be used to feed the Investment program and the Land and Property Policy Plan (Grond- en pandenbeleidsplan). If new spatial categories need to be introduced, these will be related to spatial categories used in other policy domains such as spatial planning, regional and rural development, social policy, etc. Equally important are the possible instruments and institutions that are the actors of a spatially diversified housing policy. Therefore these delimitations should take into account the findings of the Green Paper on the Internal State Reform (Groen boek interne staatshervorming), Pact 2020 'Flanders Green City Region' ('Vlaanderen groen stedengewest') on the formation of urban regions (stadsgewestvorming) and the role and position of inter-municipal collaborations (intermunicipal agencies or 'intercommunales', existing collaborations in local housing policy, working domains of social housing companies etc.). In line with the results obtained in the Flemish cities to this day, we believe that a project-based and location-specific ('gebiedsgericht') approach is quite successful as a mechanism to develop housing projects to particular demands and guarantee high housing and spatial quality. In the fifth year, along with valorization activities, we propose prospective research that might initiate concrete and innovative projects tackling pressing societal issues related to housing. These projects should reflect possible approaches to a spatially selective housing policy and act on new spatial levels as a test of new spatial categories proposed. This is a form of 'action research' that can take the shape of research by design, setting up informal collaborations between actors, developing specific guidelines for integrated projects (combined private/social/specific needs/elderly housing), process & procedure design, etc. An investigation in foreign examples of territorially selective and innovative housing policies (see among other things large scale housing construction programs in various metropolitan regions such as Paris, Bordeaux, Zürich, etc; the French plan on 'habitat intermédiaire' (intermediate housing, Mialet, 2004) or the German 'Baugruppen' Van Herck & De Meulder, 2009) approach is suggested. Based on their expertise in international comparison of housing systems the research institute OTB will be able to contribute on this part of the program. For a better understanding of these international housing construction programs as an outcome of the policy making process it is necessary to be aware of the different contexts of housing policy and housing provision. An international comparison of the different housing systems and structures of housing production market (static versus dynamic markets) makes it possible to transform these international examples to the Flemish (and Belgium) housing context. Output: 1. Report on current spatially selective housing policies and spatial selectivity as housing policy goal by the end of 2012 2. Technical review of possibilities to update current spatial categorization, in particular 'housing and housing renewal areas' , by the end of 2013 3. Update of existing spatial categories OR report with proposals for new spatial categories and/or recommendations for spatially selective housing policies, by the end of 2014

3.

Research on housing offer

Within the Flemish (and Belgian) context there exist submarkets in housing production, urban and more ru ral regions, that can become even more polarized in the nearby future. Where the structure of

26

housing production in Belgium in general can be described as a 'static' market the urban regions will probably become more and more 'dynamic' markets: production of dwellings that facilitate for example the housing demand of the elderly and the smaller households. Changes in the housing production structure can also lead to changes in territorial selectivity. Therefore research on structures of the housing production market is supplementary in studying the territorial selectivity of housing policy. Moreover, since the Decree on 'land and property policy' (Decreet grond- en panden beleid) territorially selective policies (such as territorial distribution of objectives for social housing construction, or 'social objective' (sociaal objectief) or 'housing in the home region' (wonen in eigen streek» are related to how housing is produced and who produces housing. Therefore a research is proposed that studies the mechanism of housing production in Flanders. Methodologically, this research relies on interviewing and survey techniques of, primarily, housing producers and, secondarily, house dweIlers. This is complemented by spatial research in selected neighborhoods or recent housing projects. This set up is required to understand how housing offer corresponds to housing preferences, and how housing producers react to changes in demand. Various segments within the housing sector will probably necessitate a different approach. In the Space and Housing Policy Research Centre, various segments as weil as dwelling and neighborhood typologies have been defined and investigated. A final selection of segments and typologies will be defined, but in general at least the following themes will be explored: social housing associations: their experiences with project development, land acquisition etc. and critical review of projects; strategies and preferences of large players on the housing project market; small developers and local real estate agents; housing preferences and housing quality in recent private housing projects, typological preferences; housing preferences and housing quality of private individual home builders, typologies. Within these themes particular attention is devoted to urban housing issues, as the cities in Flanders are confronted with particular housing challenges (Ryckewaert, De Decker et al. 2011). The fieldwork and case studies have relations with other research tracks: as far as the social housing market is concerned, see WP 8. As far as the role of actors in the production of housing is concerned, there is a cross-over with WP 9.

Output: report on the mechanisms of housing production in Flanders., by the end of 2015 Planning of research activities Activities



20122015

Literature and comparative research on the mechanisms that determine new housing development as weil as territorial selectiveness

P.M.

OSA

2012

Review of current domestic spatially selective housing policies.

7

OSA

Relationship with other spatial categories

P.M.

WENK

Feasibility study on possibility to update of current spatial categories

6

OSA

Update of current spatial categories OR research into new spatial categories and/or spatially selective housing policies

P.M.

WENK

Case study research on housing offer

6

OSA

P.M.

WENK

2013

2014 2015

Case study research on housing offer

8

OSA

P.M.

WENK

27

Outputs 10.1

Report on current spatially selective housing policies and spatial selectivity as housing policy goal

December 2012

10.2

Report on possibilities to update current spatial categories

December 2013

10.3

Update of existing spatial categories OR report with proposals for new spatial categories and/or recommendations for spatially selective housing policies

December 2014

10.4

Report on mechanisms of housing production in Flanders

December 2015

References Arts, P., M. Dugernier, E. Mulkens, F. Witlox, K. Boussauw and V. Van Acker (2011), Sturingsmodellen voor het wonen, research report, Brussel, Flemish government. Heynen, H., and Loeckx, A. (1998). 'Scenes of ambivalence. Concluding remarks on architectural patterns of displacement: in: Journalof architectural education, 52(2), 100-108. Latour, B. (2005), Reassembling the social. An introduction to actor-network-theory, Oxford university press, New Vork. Mialet, F. (2004), 'Le renouveau de I'habitat intermédiaire: Paris, Certu/Puca.. Van Herck, K., and De Meulder, B. (2009), 'Wonen in meervoud. Groepswoningbouw in Vlaanderen in de eenentwintigste eeuw', Amsterdam, SUN. Van Nuffel, N. and P. Saey (2006), Geografen gaan vreemd: Regionale woonmarkten en ruimtelijke planning in: 'Ruimte & Planning', 26(1), 9-20. Ryckewaert, M., De Decker, P. et al. (2011), 'Een woonmodel in transitie. Een toekomstverkenning van het Vlaamse wonen', Antwerpen, Garant.

4.3

Short term research tasks

A procedure for preparation and decision making concerning short term research tasks will be worked out together with the commissioner. We suggest next steps within this procedure: The commissioner and the researchers from the Steunpunt draw a list of topics for possible short term research tasks. Each topic is briefly explained. A discussion is held between both parties concerning these topic lists. The purpose of the discussion is to agree upon the selection of topics for which the researchers will then work out a project proposal, including division of tasks and a budget. The project proposals are send to the general steering group or policy council, that will give advice to the Minister concerning the approval of the research tasks. After the decision of the Minister is communicated to the Steunpunt the Board of the Steunpunt decides which researcher(s) will carry out the tasks. For taking this decision the Board takes into account what specific knowledge and experience is needed and in whose profile these tasks fit in the best. Also the availability of staff is a criterium. The appointments are confirmed in a contract between the promoter-coordinator and the responsible(s). In case during the execution of the research task problems emerge (e.g. the researcher to who the task is assigned leaves his employer) the Board can rearrange the division of tasks between the partners.

4.4

Gantt chart

28

4.4.1

Planning of research activities

Scope and effects of housing poli

Flows in and out social housing

204,8

29

4.4.2

Outputs

and effects of housing policy

30

5. Additional themes 5.1

Transversal themes

For Flanders the differences between social groups are important. No one should be excluded and policy strives to ensure that everyone feels responsible for creating a cohesive social community. From this vis ion the Flemish policy aims at full participation in society for everyone and has an eye for vulnerable social groups (Flemish Coalition Agreement 2009-2014). This concern for equal opportunities is also at the core of the Flemish housing policy as it is laid down in the Flemish Housing Decree of 1997, art. 4. Therefore it is also at the core of the research program of the Steunpunt Wonen. The special attention we pay to equal opportunities, diversity, integration and a cohesive community becomes visible in several parts of this proposal, a.o.: the analysis of the results of the Housing Survey with respect to socio-economie groups the efforts made to estimate non-official residents and informal housing the qualitative research devoted to the bottom-end of the housing market the development of indicators with e.g. indicators concerning integration and social cohesion the analysis of distributive effects of housing policy the research into social housing and more specifically exclusion and segregation processes in social housing.

5.2

Structural interaction with other research centres

An interesting way of collaboration with other Research Centers would be to have cross participations in thematic steering groups. We invite Research Centers that investigate related subjects to participate in our thematic steering groups and welcome similar invitations from other Research Centers. This will improve knowledge of the work of the colleagues and probably automatically enhance collaboration. At the moment we see interconnections with: Steunpunt Ruimte (Research Center Space) what concerns spatial aspects of housing and housing policy, spatial selectivity of housing policy Steunpunt Duurzame Ontwikkeling (Research Center Sustainable Development) what concerns energy performance of buildings, Steunpunt Armoede (Research Center Poverty) Steunpunt Welzijn, Volksgezondheid en Gezin (Research Center Welfare, Health and Family) what concerns the relation between welfare and housing, e.g. the housing needs of elderly and handicapped persons, liftetime housing, co-housing, livable communities ... Steunpunt Bestuurlijke Organisatie (Research Centre Public Management) what concerns management and performance of housing associations and other local housing actors, distribution of tasks between policy levels, policy evaluation ... Steunpunt Fiscaliteit en Begroting (Research Center Taxation and Budget) what concerns evaluation of fiscal instruments aiming at stimulating homeownership Because of the large sample size the Housing Survey 2012 can provide interesting data for researchers of other Research Centers. As we did in the past, we will hand over the survey data to other interested researchers and explain to them how they can process these data. For some specific research topics in the call a close collaboration between research centers is evident. One of these is the evaluation of property taxation, which is one of the tasks of the Steunpunt Fiscaliteit en Begroting (Research Center Taxation and Budget). The researchers of the Steupunt Wonen who are responsible for '3.3 Prices and housing markets' will contact this Research Centre prior to the start of their working package.

5.3

Delivery of reports and dissemination of results

The Management Contract contains a number of artieles on the procedure for delivery and approval of reports. A more specific procedure is enclosed in the by-Iaws ('huishoudelijk reglement, see bijlage 2).

31

The Research Centre wil! disseminate research results as much as possible making use of several distinct channels. Obviously, the research generates a large application field for al! stakeholders in the field of housing and related subjects, a.o. departments and agencies of the Flemish government, federal government, provinces, municipalities private stakeholders: building industry, project developers, ... local housing organizations: social housing associations, social rental agencies, , ... welfare organisations, as e.g. Municipal Public Welfare Agencies (OCMW) interest groups: tenants organisations, owners organisations, organisation of housing associations, ... Since the number of potential users is quite high, a very open access to the research findings and potentials is necessary. This access wil! be generated via the website. AI! reports wil! be available on the website. A selection of reports will be published in bookform. Also thematic books, compiled with contributions from distinct disciplines, are seen as an interesting output (see former books 'Space for Housing' and 'Social housing today'). Additional!y, short articles wil! be published in professional journals as e.g. of the building industry, the social housing sector, tenants associations, etc. The Housing Team of the former Space and Housing Research Center also has a tradition in organisation of conferences and seminars for a large audience. A~ weil smal! scale events (half day, 50 tot 80 participants) were organised as larger events (whole day, 150 to 200 participants). Publication of thematic books for instance can be promoted in this way. Beside dissemination these events contribute to critica I discussion of research findings and contribute to the definition of new research questions. For dissemination of the scientific output the usual scientific publications and fora wil! be used: Ph D dissertations, publications in international scientific journais, presentations at international conferences, Ph D seminars open to public. Most researchers are member of the European Network for Housing Research (ENHR). The Network is composed of researchers from a variety of social science disciplines dealing with housing and urban issues. In addition to its basic goal of supporting research, the Network also seeks to promote contacts and communications between researchers and practitioners within the housing field. For this purpose, the ENHR organises international conferences each year and provides a framework for nearly twenty working groups. The network therefore offers a number of opportunities for discussing interim and final research results with specialists from many countries (see http://www.enhr.ibf.uu.se).

32

6. Management 6.1

Internal organisation

Responsibles

KUlEUVEN

WENK

PHI.

TUD ELFT

UA

Researchers and responsibles

RESEARCH TEAM

Structural partners

D 6.1.1

Priviliged partners

Promotor-coordinator

The promotor of the Steunpunt is responsible for: - the overall progress of the research process; communication with the Flemish government; scientific quality; financial reports; interim evaluation; stimulating interdisciplinary cooperation; stimulating valorization; conflict management if necessary. Promotor-coordinator is Prof. Dr. Erik Buyst from CES - K.U.Leuven. Since the promotor-coordinator is appointed as ZAP this function does not imply financial costs. 6.1.2

Coordinator

The coordinator assists the promotor-coordinator. Tasks of the coordinator are: - preparation of the general and thematic steering groups; - preparation of team meetings; - preparation of contra cts; - organization of the secretariat; - follow up of planning;

33

-

preparation of valorization events; preparation of financial reports and activity reports; internal communication; external communication (website, newsletter); external representation: participation in external commissions, working groups, advisory commissions, ... ; respond to ad hoc questions or pass these on to researchers; contributing to acquisition of new data; initiating and collaborating to joint products, e.g. thematic books or conferences; contributing to interdisciplinary team discussions by having a helicopter view over the work of all researchers; daily communication with the commissioner concerning all this.

Coordinator is Sien Winters from HIVA, K.U.Leuven. The function of the coordinator represents 0,5 FTE. 6.1.3

Secretariat

The secretariat is the permanent contact point of the Policy R~search Centre and is responsible for: - formal correspondence with the commissioner; financial administration; distribution of invitations and agendas for thematic steering groups, research teams, ... ; development of templates for reports and papers; lay-out check of reports and papers before these are published; development and maintenance of the website and intranet; practical organization of valorization events: conferences, seminars, ... ; development and maintenance of a mailing lists with contacts and subscribers of the newsletter; keeping the archives. The function of secretary represents 0,2 FTE. Permanent ICT-assistance for the secretariat is available. A budget for development of the website is included in the indirect costs. The secretariat wil! be organized at HIVA. The secretary can rely on the wide experience of HIVA in managing large research networks and organizing valorization events. Although the function is only calculated at 0,2 FTE permanence during office hours is guaranteed by colleagues. 6.1.4

Responsibles

The 'responsibles' carry full responsibility for the work of their research group. Their role is: - to guarantee the scientific quality of the research of their group; to ensure timely delivery of research results and reports; to prepare the annual plans and annual reports and accounts for their research group; to represent their research group in the Board; to take management decisions concerning organization and finance of the Research Centre together with the responsibles of the other research groups in the Board; to feed the discussions in the research team from their specific academic background and knowIedge. 6.1.5

Researchers

Researchers of several different academic disciplines participate: economy, geography, sociology, planning, psychology, architecture, ... They perform their work under the supervision of the responsibles.

34

6.1.6

Board

The Board is responsible for the daily management of the Research Centre. As stated in the Management Contract the board is charged with: - the development of the long term strategy of the Research Centre; realizing a structural interaction between the researchers and the research groups across institutions; realizing the engagement of the structural partners in collective decisions concerning: o the institutional arrangements of the Research Centre; o the content of the research. the development of a structural interaction with other Research Centres for policy oriented research (assigned by the Flemish government) that study related topics. The Board approves: - the annual working plan that is handed over to the steering group; - the annual activity report and the financial report that is handed over to the steering group; - the project proposals for ad hoc research. Other recurrent points on the agenda of the Board are: - follow up of the working plans; planning and preparation of thematic steering groups; - setting the agenda for the research teams; - planning of initiatives for integrated research outputs (e.g. thematic books); - planning of valorization initiatives. The Board consists of the 6 responsibles of the structural partners and two responsibles of the privileged partners (see 2.2). The Board is chaired by the promotor-coordinator. The board will meet each two months and in between whenever it is necessary. Because of a regular frequency and since the meetings usually follow research teams in which the discussions concerning content of the research take place, the duration of the meetings can be kept short. 6.1.7

Research team

The Research Team is a flexible working instrument with as main purpose the interaction between researchers from the different research groups. Beside the structural partners also the privileged partners can participate in the activities. Occasionally external partners are invited. The research team operates as a platform for exchange and critical discussion as weil concerning methodological questions as concerning data or research results. Normally results of research always pass this discussion before these are presented to the steering groups. The research team meets once each month. Meetings usually take a half day. The meetings are organized as seminars in which researchers present their work and discuss this with their colleagues.

6.2 6.2.1

HRM-beleid

Barema's

Het wetenschappelijk en administratief personeel dat werkt voor het Steunpunt wordt vergoed overeenkomstig de barema's die geldig zijn bij hun werkgevers. 6.2.2

Selectiecriteria en aanwerving procedures

Aanwerving en selectie behoren tot de verantwoordelijkheid van de deelnemende entiteiten.

35

6.2.3

Vorming

Onderzoek doen is permanent zichzelf vormen, door lezen van internationale literatuur, vakliteratuur, deelname aan studiedagen, ... Jonge onderzoekers staan ook steeds onder leiding van een verantwoordelijke die hen opleiden in dit vak van beleidsgericht onderzoek. Daarnaast zien we de teamwerking als een belangrijke vorm van opleiding. Tijdens de samenkomsten van het team worden trouwens ook regelmatig externen uitgenodigd, zowel uit de onderzoekswereld, als administraties en het werkveld. Vorming is dus vooral een 'on-the-job-training'. 6.2.4

Kennisdeling

Opnieuw verwijzen we naar de teamwerking als voornaamste instrument van kennisdeling. Verder is ook het intranet van het Steunpunt een instrument om data en bronnen op te slaan en open te stellen voor collega's onderzoekers.

6.3

Financieel beheer

Het financieel beheer van het Steunpunt wordt gevoerd door de financiële dienst van de K.U.Leuven. Voor het Steunpunt Wonen wordt een afzonderlijke boekhouding bijgehouden. Ook elk van de deelnemende instellingen voert een afzonderlijke boekhouding voor het aandeel in het Steunpunt. Het Dagelijks Bestuur volgt de financiering van het Steunpunt minstens twee maal per jaar op, nl. bij de opstelling van de begroting en bij het opmaken van het financieel jaarverslag. Overzichtelijke tabellen maken inzichtelijk welke middelen voor welke partner beschikbaar zijn, wat daarvan in elk jaar is gebruikt en welke reserves worden overgedragen naar het volgende jaar. Een goede planning van de onderzoeksactiviteiten en een goede financiële opvolgingen moet voorkomen dat grote bedragen worden overgedragen naar een volgend werkjaar. Naast budgetten voor elke partner is er een beperkt bedrag voor centrale werkingskosten voorzien. Hiermee zullen o.a. worden gefinancierd: ontwikkelingskosten voor de website, vertaalkosten, publicatiekosten, kosten naar aanleiding van valorisatie-evenementen die niet kunnen worden gerecupereerd uit inschrijvingsgelden. Studiedagen dienen maximaal zelfbedruipend te zijn. Hiermee bedoelen we dat de kosten voor huur van een zaal, catering, documentatie... worden gefinancierd uit inschrijvingsgelden. Personeelskosten worden niet in rekening gebracht. Er wordt gestreefd naar eenvoudige formules, mede om democratische inschrijvingsprijzen te kunnen hanteren.

6.4

Logistiek beheer

Elke instelling garandeert een goede huisvesting voor de medewerkers van het steunpunt. Deze huisvesting wordt gewaarborgd door de bijdrage van 10% overhead. Daarenboven leveren de instellingen administratieve ondersteuning, ICT-ondersteuning, de medewerking van de personeelsdienst en communicatiedienst, toegang tot bibliotheken en documentatiecentra (zie ook deel 6). Het Steunpunt zal ook over een eigen centraal secretariaat beschikken. Het secretariaat ondersteunt de coördinator op administratief vlak. De taken van het secretariaat zijn omschreven in deel 2 van dit aanvraagdossier. Een belangrijk aandachtspunt is de herkenbaarheid van het Steunpunt naar de ruime buitenwereld. Het Steunpunt zal naar buiten treden met een logo aangeleverd door de opdrachtgever. Er wordt een eenvoudige huisstijl ontwikkeld die verder bouwt op de kleuren van dit logo en die herkenbaar zal zijn in website, rapporten, uitnodigingen voor studiedagen enz. De website is het eerste communicatiemiddel met het ruime publiek. De website wordt permanent upto-date gehouden. Alle rapporten zullen in aflaad bare vorm op de website beschikbaar zijn.

36

Gepland wordt ook regelmatig nieuwsberichten te verspreiden, bv. naar aanleiding van de organisatie van een studiedag, publicatie van een rapport, enz. Er wordt geen vaste frequentie nagestreefd. Ter gelegenheid van dergelijke evenementen worden ook steeds persberichten verspreid.

6.5

Huisvesting

Het centraal aanspreekpunt van het Steunpunt zal herkenbaar gehuisvest zijn. Het wordt ondergebracht in de lokalen van de K.U.Leuven, binnen de infrastructuur van het HIVA, Parkstraat 47, 3000 Leuven. Het HIVA ligt op wandelafstand van het station van Leuven en beschikt over een ondergrondse parking. Het HIVA beschikt over een conferentiezaal die toelaat seminaries te organiseren voor maximum 50 personen en over kleinere vergaderruimtes. In de nabije omgeving van het HIVA liggen meerdere auditoria die in aanmerking komen voor organisatie van grotere studiedagen. De coördinator en het centraal secretariaat van het Steunpunt hebben hun werkplek op het HIVA. De promotor-coördinator is gehuisvest op enkele minuten wandelafstand. Zo kan op efficiënte wijze worden samengewerkt. Huisvesting van het centraal secretariaat op het HIVA heeft als voordeel dat permanentie verzekerd is, ook buiten de werkuren van de secretariaatskracht, die voor 0,2 VTE betaald wordt met financiering van het Steunpunt. Andere voordelen zijn dat de secretariaqtskracht kan rekenen op de ervaring van collega's die het secretariaat voor andere steunpunten of voor andere grootschalige onderzoeks• projecten waarnemen. Verder kan de secretariaatskracht beroep doen op de ervaring van de communicatieverantwoordelijke van het HIVA, de ICT-dienst en de survey-ploeg. De onderzoekers die deel uitmaken van het Steunpunt blijven gehuisvest binnen de accommodatie die ter beschikking staat binnen hun eigen werkgever. Elk van de deelnemende entiteiten werkt binnen een eigen werkomgeving die mede ten dienste staat van het Steunpunt. Het gaat zowel om personeelsleden die (geheel of gedeeltelijk) gefinancierd worden met andere financieringsbronnen als om logistieke en materiële inbreng.

37

7. Meerjarenbegroting 7.1

Budgetten (in euro)

Cofinanciering [vermelden basisallocafie, en indien meerdere bronnen aanvullen op verschilJende rijen]

248 333,33

248 333,33

248 333,33

248 333,33

Inkomst: AndèrQ financÎQring of QigQn inkoinsmn [bQrekMde waarde]

38

39

12899:,45 5999,45

12899,45 8499,45

12 8~9,45 8499,45

12899,45 8499,45

1.1 HIVA

5999,45

8499,45

8499,45

8499,45

1.2 CES

-

-

-

-

-

1.4 Afdeling Geografie (AG)

-

-

1.30SA

-

-

-

-

Kost: Werking, indirect Informatie en documentatie 1. KU.Leuven

3. PHL

-

4. UA

-

2. WENK

-

-

-

-

5900,00

3400,00

3400,00

3400,00

1.1 HIVA

5900,00

3400,00

3400,00

3400,00

-

-

-

5.0Ta ICT

-

-

-

1. KU.Leuven 1.2 CES

-

1.30SA

-

1.4 Afdeling Geografie (AG)

-

.

2. WENK 3. PHL 4. UA 5.0TB Uitrusting

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1. K U. Leuven 1.1 HIVA

-

1.2 CES

-

1.30SA

-

1.4 Afdeling Geografie (AG) 3. PHL

-

4. UA

-

5.0Ta

-

-

1000,00

1.1 HIVA

2. WENK

-

-

-

-

-

1000,00

1 000,00

1000,00

1 000,00

1 000,00

1000,00

1000,00

1.2 CES

-

-

-

-

1.30SA 1.4 Afdeling Geografie (AG)

-

-

-

-

-

Reiskosten 1. KU.Leuven

2. WENK 3. PHL 4. UA 5.0Ta Valorisatie

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1. KU.Leuven 1.1 HIVA

-

1.2 CES

-

1.30SA

-

-

-

-

-

-

45299,81

1.4 Afdeling Geografie (AG) 2. WENK 3.PHL 4. UA 5.0TB

Totaal kost werking:

-

-

-

37325,54

37456,54

47299,82

40

I Totaal kost onderaanneming:

33500,00

.

'.

33500,00

r" "" ............ ,.. ",'.. ····1 ........ ,'. .' . :c;~~1~H:Qg~g~;i:!~~~1·~~9î~~;J

,: '.:" :,::,1·.·. •. ".'.5".2.·.·.·:,1.·,:.•. 5 •. .·, ·. 0.,b,,',o.O,' •.. :•.i.·•••.•:.;.•·.:.I:,·. '.·•.·.5 . '.,.'.·:.2.·.·.1.,.·.".,.'6·.0.'. .,:0. ·,. ,.·.0.··,,0,•.·•.•.•.'.':

Korte termijnopdrachten Saldo excl. Korte termijnopdrachten

. I

. I

223 500,00 0,00

223 500,00 0,01

, . . ' , ... ,,'''''.'' " ...... '.

223 500,00 0,01

223 500,00 0,02

41

7.2

Personeelsinzet

42

8. Jaarbegroting 8.1

Begroting Steunpunt

43

745000,00 Cofinanciering [vermelden basisallocatie, en indien meerdere bronnen aanvullen op verschillende rijen]

248333,33

Inkomst: Andere ftn~nciering of eigen inkomsten [berekende waarde] [Omschrijving Bron ... , per bron en rij aanvullen]

Inkomst: Reserveoverdracht van jaar ervoor Totaal beschikbaar budget: [berekende waarde]

745000,00

Korte termijnopdrachten

223500,00

Balans na korte termijnopdrachten

44

8.2 8.2.1

Begroting KULeuven

Begroting HIVA

45

8.2.2

Begroting CES

46

8.2.3

Begroting OSA

Totaal aantal persoonsmaanden

10,00

Totale personeelskost

75160,00

47

8.2.4

Begroting KULeuven totaal

48

opvolging veldwerk woningopname I WP 1: aan te besteden

33500,00

Totaal kost onderaanneming: [berekende waarde]

33500,00

49

8.3

Begroting PHL

50

8.4

Begroting WENK

51

8.5

Begroting OTB

52

8.6

Personeelsinzet

53

9. Samenvatting in het Nederlands 9.1

Doelstelling van het Steunpunt Wonen

De doelstelling van het Steunpunt Wonen is het leveren van objectieve informatie over de huidige en de gewenste situatie op de Vlaamse woningmarkt. Het Steunpunt dient op deze manier bij te dragen aan een langetermijnvisie over het Vlaamse woonbeleid, om het grondwettelijke recht op behoorlijke huisvesting - zowel op vlak van betaaibaarheid als kwaliteit - te garanderen. Speciale aandacht zal hierbij gaan naar de energie-efficiêntie van de woningvoorraad en het stedelijke beleid. Het Steunpunt Wonen zal zich meer specifiek toespitsen op de hiaten in de kennis over wonen in Vlaanderen die zijn gedetecteerd door de Vlaamse administratie. De verschillende onderzoekslijnen die vooropgesteld zijn in de oproep van de administratie, zijn gevolgd in dit meerjarenplan.

9.2

I WP 1.

Opdrachten van het Steunpunt Wonen

Woonsurvey 2012

Het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen 2007-2011 heeft in 2011 !=len nieuwe grootschalige bevraging over de woonsituatie in Vlaanderen en een bijhorende woningop~ame voorbereid, genaamd 'Woonsurvey 2012'. De huidige planning voorziet dat de aanbesteding voor het veldwerk wordt gelanceerd in januari 2012. Het veldwerk van de Woonsurvey zal lopen van mei 2012 tot mei 2013. Het Steunpunt Wonen zal mee het onderzoeksbureau selecteren dat het veldwerk zal uitvoeren. Daarnaast zal het Steunpunt (HIVA) de steekproef aanvragen bij het Rijksregister, het veldwerk van de bevraging opvolgen, de kwaliteit van de datavergaring bewaken en de non-respons analyseren. De opvolging van het veldwerk van de woningopname zal gebeuren door een organisatie in onderaanneming, aangezien dit in de eerste plaats een technische aangelegenheid is en geen deel uitmaakt van de kerntaken van de onderzoekers. Na de oplevering van de databestanden en de cleaning ervan, zullen de analyses starten. In 2013 en 2014 zullen basisanalyses worden uitgevoerd door zowel HIVA, OSA, PHL als WENK. De onderwerpen worden verdeeld over de teamleden op basis van hun expertise. In 2015 zullen er bijkomende thematische analyses worden gedaan door HIVA en OSA. Deze thema's zullen worden bepaald in het licht van de beleidsactualiteit.

I WP2.

Meting van de leegstand, niet-officiêle bewoning en grijs wooncircuit

Om de leegstand en niet-officiêle bewoning te meten, zijn er meerdere benaderingen nodig aangezien er geen compleet woningenregister voorhanden is in Vlaanderen. Dit onderzoeksluik omvat daarom vier delen. Het eerste deel is een studie naar de mogelijkheden van het kadaster om tot een goede registratie van wonen in Vlaanderen te komen. In het verleden werden er twijfels geuit bij de bruikbaarheid van het kadaster in dit kader. Recentelijk is de rol van het kadaster evenwel uitgebreid. Het is nu een 'patrimoniumdatabank' en niet meer louter een databank voor belastingsdoeleinden. De studie van het kadaster volgt twee sporen. Een eerste spoor is een analyse van de overeenstemming tussen het kadaster en het rijksregister op gemeentelijk (en/of statistische sector) niveau voor gans Vlaanderen, inclusief GIS en CAD MAP analyses. Een tweede spoor betreft een check van deze resultaten op het terrein, op basis van enkele casestudies of gemeenten. In een tweede deel van dit onderzoeksluik worden de kadasterdata vergeleken met andere - meer gefragmenteerde - inventarissen van niet-officiêle bewoning. Zo zullen lokale (gemeentelijke) inventarissen van studentenhuisvesting en tweede woonsten aan bod komen, net zoals de registratie van de leegstand die op Vlaams niveau wordt gecentraliseerd. Andere mogelijke bronnen om de niet-officiêle bewoning in kaart te brengen zijn inventarissen van vluchtelingenorganisaties of federale en andere schattingen van 'illegale' immigratie. Ten derde wordt er een algemene schatting gemaakt van de niet-officiêle bewoning, leegstand en het grijze wooncircuit in Vlaanderen, op basis van de resultaten uit de eerste twee delen van de studie.

54

Een vierde deel van dit luik is een literatuurstudie van de registratie van niet-officiële bewoning in onze buurlanden. Ook zal gekeken worden naar de schattingen van het aantal tweede woonsten in deze landen.

I WP3

De onderkant van de woningmarkt

Aangezien de groepen aan de onderkant van de woningmarkt doorgaans moeilijk te bereiken zijn met kwantitatief survey-onderzoek, bestaan er weinig studies over. In de oproep werd er daarom expliciet gevraagd om de 'onderkant van de woningmarkt' mee op te nemen in het onderzoeksvoorstel. De bedoeling van dit onderdeel is om verder te werken met de kwalitatieve 'woonpaden'-benadering, die een succesvolle aanpak bleek bij onderzoek in het vorige Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen (2007-2011). Dit 'woonpadenonderzoek' concentreerde zich echter op groepen uit de middenklasse, terwijl de onderkant in belangrijke mate buiten beschouwing bleef. Drie taken zullen door WENK uitgevoerd worden binnen dit onderzoeksluik. Ten eerste, zullen er in 2012 drie beleidsgeoriënteerde papers worden geschreven op basis van het vorige woonpadenonderzoek binnen het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen. Elk van deze papers zal één van de cruciale thema's omhelzen die uit deze studie naar voor kwamen, met name de stadsvlucht van jonge middenklasse gezinnen met kinderen, het etnocentrisme en de zwakke steun voor sociale mix in Vlaanderen, en de carrière van de vrouwen de plaats daarvan binnen he~ woon pad van het gezin. Ten tweede, zullen de woonpaden belicht worden van mensen die vertrekken uit publieke instellingen, meer bepaald de bijzondere jeugdzorg, de gevangenis en de psychiatrie. Dit zal gebeuren aan de hand van diepte-interviews met zowel de verantwoordelijken binnen de organisaties als de (voormalige) cliënten zelf. Tot slot worden de woonpaden van Oost-Europese arbeidsmigranten onder de loep genomen. Hiervoor zullen lokale casestudies worden uitgevoerd en wordt er een workshop georganiseerd waarin buitenlandse onderzoekers hun ervaring met dit onderwerp zullen delen.

I WP 4.

Private verhuurders

De private huurmarkt in Vlaanderen wordt gedomineerd door individuele verhuurders. In 2005 werd 86% van alle huurwoningen verhuurd door particuliere verhuurders. Van de Vlaamse gezinnen is er 7,2% die één of meerdere woningen verhuren. Bij de analyse van de Woonsurvey 2012 door het HIVA zal bijzondere aandacht geschonken worden aan deze particuliere verhuurders. Zo zijn er vragen opgenomen over de opbrengst en de verschillende kosten van de verhuur, de selectie van de huurders en de plannen die de verhuurders hebben met hun huurwoningen. In 2013 en 2014 zal dit thema onderdeel zijn van de geplande basisanalyses. Daarnaast kan dit onderwerp ook aan bod komen bij de thematische analyses die gepland zijn voor 2015 (zie WP 1). Het is opmerkelijk dat in de meeste landen de woning prijzen sterker stegen dan de huurprijzen. In het onderzoek van het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen werd in dit verband een 'return on investment' model ter bepaling van de huurprijzen uitgewerkt. Dit model werd uitgebreid met een evenwichtsmodel om de prijsevoluties te verklaren. Het doel van dit onderzoeksonderdeel is om dit laatste model nog verder uit te werken in een meer gedetailleerde 'scenario-tooi'. Er zullen hiermee simulaties worden uitgevoerd voor beleidsinstrumenten die tot doel hebben de private huurmarkt te activeren. Het GES zal in elk werkjaar van het Steunpunt één onderzoeksmaand wijden aan dit onderzoek.

I WP 5.

Analyses van de EPG databank

Als gevolg van de invoering van het Energieprestatiecertificaat (EPG) in Vlaanderen, werd er een EPG-databestand opgebouwd dat ondertussen meer dan 370.000 certificaten bevat van bestaande woningen, appartementen en appartementsgebouwen. Er wordt verwacht dat dit bestand de komende jaren met 100.000 nieuwe certificaten per jaar zal aangroeien. Een eerste onderzoekslijn binnen dit luik is een statistische analyse van de EPG-databank. In eerste instantie zal er een statistisch analysemodel worden opgesteld voor frequentieanalyses met enkelvoudige en meervoudige parameters en correlatieanalyses. De inhoudsanalyse zal zich vervolgens

55

toespitsen op de volgende aspecten: gemiddelde energieprestatie van de woningvoorraad, de aanwezigheid van energiebesparende maatregelen (isolatie, dubbele beglazing, ventilatiesystemen etc.), de relatie tussen energieprestatie en bouwperiode/ligging en de identificatie van zwakke punten in de energieprestatie. Ook zal er aandacht besteed worden aan de evolutie van de energieprestatie van de woningvoorraad. Daarnaast zullen de resultaten op basis van de EPG-databank geconfronteerd worden met bijkomende informatie, zoals de resultaten van de Woonsurvey 2012 en de Eurostat survey bij 1800 huishoudens. Op voorwaarde dat er een koppeling mogelijk is van de Woonsurvey 2012 met de EPG-databank, zal er een schatting worden uitgewerkt van de relatie tussen het EPG en de werkelijke energiekosten. Onder dezelfde voorwaarde, zal het effect van de energieprestatie op de woningprijs onderzocht worden bij de hedonische prijsanalyse uit het economische onderzoeksluik (zie WP 9). Een tweede onderzoekslijn heeft betrekking op de analyse van de informatiebronnen die gebruikt worden bij de opmaak van het EPG. Bij de inspectie van de woning kan er gebruikt gemaakt worden van verscheidene informatiebronnen om de aanwezigheid van isolatie, type beglazing of type boiler (etc.) uit af te leiden. Indien deze informatie niet voorhanden is, zijn er voor de inspecteurs 'default' keuzes voorhanden op basis van bouwjaar, type bebouwing etc. Door beide methoden met elkaar te vergelijken, kan er inzicht verkregen worden in de accuraatheid van het EPG en de representativiteit van de huidige certificaten voor de werkelijke situatie. Op voorwaarde dat de koppeling van de EPGdata met data over energiesubsidies mogelijk is, kan voorts gecontroleerd worden of het EPG op een correcte manier rekening houdt met de aanwezige energieb'esparende maatregelen. Deze analyses zullen leiden tot voorstellen ter verbetering van de dataverzameling voor het EPG en ter aanpassing van de berekeningsmethode van het EPG.

I WP 6.

Ontwikkeling van indicatoren

Door het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen is er een voorstel uitgewerkt voor een monitoringsysteem voor het Vlaamse woon beleid (Winters e.a., 2010). Dit voorstel bevat een set van indicatoren op basis waarvan de Vlaamse overheid de ontwikkelingen op de woningmarkt en de output van het woon beleid kan monitoren. De voorgestelde indicatoren zijn gebaseerd op wetenschappelijke kennis en op het huidige beleidskader, rekening houdend met de beschikbaarheid van data. Het Steunpunt Wonen zal deze indicatorenset elk jaar updaten. Bijzondere aandacht zal hierbij geschonken worden aan de coherentie met de Pact2020 indicatoren inzake wonen, de coherentie met de Eurostat-indicatoren gebaseerd op de SILG, de energieprestatie van woningen en de beleidsrichting van de nieuwe Vlaamse regering vanaf 2014. In Winters e.a. (2010) werd advies uitgebracht over nieuw te ontwikkelen indicatoren. Sommige van deze indicatoren zullen ontwikkeld worden binnen de onderzoekstijd van de andere werkpakketten. Zo is het de bedoeling binnen WP 1 een indicator te ontwikkelen voor woningkwaliteit op basis van de woningopname in de Woonsurvey 2012. Een woningprijsindex en een indicator voor de beschikbaarheid van woningen in het algemeen zal worden uitgewerkt door GES in WP 9. Binnen WP 6 zal het OTB de mogelijkheden verkennen voor indicatoren voor de kwaliteit van de woonomgeving en voor sociale inclusielintegratie (in 2012) en voor effectiviteit en efficiëntie van het woon beleid (in 2015). Daarnaast zal het HIVA nagaan of het mogelijk is op basis van lopend onderzoek een indicator te definiëren voor de beschikbaarheid van woningen in situaties van extreme uitsluiting.

I WP 7

Bereik en effecten van het woon beleid

Heylen en Winters (te publiceren) maakten in 2011 in het kader van het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen een uitgebreide analyse van de verdeling van de woonsubsidies in Vlaanderen. De analyse gebeurde met behulp van de gebruikskostenmethode. In 2015 zal het HIVA deze verdelingsanalyse updaten op basis van zowel administratieve data (vb. sociale huur, huursubsidie) als de Woonsurvey 2012 (fiscale voordelen). Voor sociale koopwoningen en sociale kavels bestaat er nog geen verdelingsanalyse. Deze zal het HIVA uitvoeren in 2012.

56

Daarnaast zal er in 2014 een analyse plaatsvinden van de herverdelende effecten van de subsidies voor energiebesparende maatregelen. PHL zal hiervoor instaan, door op niveau van statistische sectoren data over energiesubsidies te combineren met data over de energieprestatie van woningen (EPC). Deze aanpak zal op een indirecte manier leiden tot meer inzicht in het herverdelende effect van energiesubsidies. In 2013 zal het HIVA een microsimulatiemodel ontwikkelen dat moet toelaten om de distributieve effecten in te schatten van aanpassingen aan het beleid inzake woonsubsidies. Dit model zal op maat van de Woonsurvey 2012 worden opgesteld. In Vlaanderen loopt momenteel het FLEMOSI project, dat tot een model leidde om simulaties op vlak van socio-economisch beleid uit te voeren op basis van SI LC-data. De ervaringen binnen dit project zullen aangewend worden bij de ontwikkeling van ons simulatiemodel. Verder zal het HIVA een document opstellen met uitleg bij het methodologische kader van de verdelingsstudies, de databronnen die in Vlaanderen beschikbaar zijn en de mogelijkheden van toekomstige verdelingsanalyses. Het OTB zal zorgen voor de internationale dimensie binnen dit onderzoeksonderdeel. In 2013 zal er een vergelijking van de woonsubsidiêring plaatsvinden tussen Vlaanderen en Nederland, op basis van de gebruikskostenmethode. In 2014 zal er een vergelijking worden gemaakt met meerdere Europese landen.

I WP 8

Analyse in- en uitstroom sociale huisvesting

Het aandeel sociale huisvesting is in Vlaanderen relatief laag. De wachtlijsten voor het huren van een woning bij een sociale huisvestingsmaatschappij (SHM) en een sociaal verhuurkantoor (SVK) zijn lang. De beperkte sociale woningvoorraad moet dus goed beheerd worden. Er is echter weinig gekend over de in- en uistroom uit de sociale huisvesting. Dit WP beoogt deze leemte in de kennis te vullen. Het WP start met een algemene verkenning, waarbij WENK een literatuurstudie zal uitvoeren naar de in- enu uitstroom uit de sociale huisvesting en een aantal theoretische concepten die daarvoor relevant zijn, zal verduidelijkt. Daarnaast zal WENK op basis van de beschikbare gegevens trachten een vergelijking te maken van de doelgroep van de SHM's en de SVK's. In het kwalitatief onderzoeksluik zal WENK diepte-interviews bij sociale huurders analyseren. Daarvoor kan nog gebruik worden gemaakt van interviews afgenomen door het Steunpunt Ruimte en Wonen 2007-2011. Een beperkt aantal bijkomende interviews zal worden afgenomen. Ook informatie van organisaties die werken met zwakke doelgroepen zal mee worden verwerkt. Het kwalitatief onderzoeksluik resulteert mee in hypothesen die kunnen worden getoetst in het kwantitatief luik. In het kwantitatieve onderzoeksluik zal het HIVA de stromen in en uit de sociale woningen van SHM's onderzoeken op basis van administratieve databestanden. De VMSW beschikt reeds meerdere jaren over databestanden van kandidaat-huurders en huurders. Deze data bevatten naast gegevens over de gezinnen en de woningen ook tijdsgegevens, waardoor duuranalyses mogelijk zijn. Het kwantitatieve onderzoeksluik vangt aan met een literatuurstudie over de methodologie en over gelijkaardige onderzoeken in het buitenland en met het klaarmaken van de databestanden voor analyse. In 2014 zullen de eerste algemene analyses worden uitgevoerd. In 2015 vindt er een update van de dataset plaats en worden enkele thematische analyses uitgevoerd.

I WP 9

Prijsvorming op de woningmarkt

Het economisch georiênteerde onderzoekluik bestaat uit vier delen en wordt uitgevoerd door het CES. In het eerste deel zal in 2012 een index worden uitgewerkt voor de woningprijzen in Vlaanderen, op basis van de 'repeat sales' methode en data over woningtransacties van de AAPD. Bij de 'repeat sales' methode worden enkel de woning prijzen in rekening gebracht van woningen die tweemaal verkocht zijn. Op deze manier worden de mogelijk vertekenende effecten van de samenstelling van de groep verkochte woningen geneutraliseerd. De appartementen die het afgelopen jaar verkocht zijn, hebben bijvoorbeeld gemiddeld mogelijk andere kenmerken dan de appartementen die 10 jaar geleden verkocht zijn. Bovendien kan er ook een onderscheid gemaakt worden naar de prijsevolutie van woningen die wel en niet gerenoveerd zijn.

57

Ten tweede zal het CES in 2013 een hedonisch prijsmodel ontwikkelen voor woningprijzen in Vlaanderen. In zulk een model wordt de prijs van een woning bepaald door de kenmerken ervan, op basis van een regressiemethode. Het model laat toe het effect op de woningprijs na te gaan van de locatie, de woningkenmerken en de energieprestatie (zie ook WP 5). Verschillende databronnen zullen bij dit onderzoek worden aangewend: de Woonsurvey 2012 (met aandacht voor de centrumsteden), de VMSW databank (met schattingen voor huur- en verkoopprijs sociale woningen, 2008), immodata en AAPD data. In een derde deel van dit WP staat de ruimtelijke en temporele dynamiek van de Vlaamse woningmarkt centraal. De focus zal in de eerste plaats liggen op de macro-economische dimensie van vraag en aanbod van wonen en de regionale verschillen hierin. Dit onderdeel maakt deel uit van een doctoraatstraject in de economische wetenschappen, dat loopt over de vier jaren van het Steunpunt Wonen. De woningmarkt wordt gedomineerd door economische factoren, gedragseffecten, verschillende soorten voorkeuren, wetgeving en interacties tussen de verschillende deelmarkten. De bedoeling van het vierde deel van dit WP (uit te voeren in 2015) is om al deze elementen in een breder kader te plaatsen met behulp van een evenwichtsmodel voor de deelmarkten. De output van dit deel is een scenario-tooi die moet toelaten om de impact te meten van mogelijke beleidsopties op de verschillende deelmarkten.

I WP 10. Territoriale selectiviteit in het woonbeleid Tijdens het eerste onderzoeksjaar zal OSA een literatuurstudie uitvoeren naar de mechanismen die nieuwe ontwikkelingen op de woningmarkt bepalen. Er wordt daarbij een onderscheid gemaakt tussen hoe woningen worden geproduceerd en hoe woonvoorkeuren uitmonden in woonbeslissingen. De focus ligt hierbij niet op de macro-economische dimensie van vraag en aanbod maar op de onderliggende mechanismen en procedures die een impact hebben op de woningmarkt en die niet geleid worden door een economische rationaliteit. Verschillende procedures, wetgevingen en tradities komen aan bod, maar ook de rol van de actoren zoals de bewoners, de promotoren, architecten, verantwoordelijken uit de sociale huisvesting etc. Ook woningen, buurten en landschappen zullen als actoren worden beschouwd. Dit WP wordt uitgevoerd door OSA. Voor WENK en OTB is geen onderzoekstijd voorzien binnen dit WP, maar het is wel voorzien dat ze hun expertise mee ter beschikking stellen, bijvoorbeeld onder de vorm van het aanreiken van bronnen of deelname aan interne besprekingen. Het WP bevat twee onderdelen. Het eerste onderdeel betreft de territoriale selectiviteit van het woon beleid en bevat de volgende stappen: • een bespreking van de territoriale beleidsmaatregelen inzake wonen en territoriale selectiviteit als een beleidsdoelstelling. • onderzoek naar de relatie met andere ruimtelijke categorie-indelingen met relevantie voor wonen. • onderzoek naar de mogelijkheden om de bestaande categorisering te updaten. Welke ruimtelijke eenheden kunnen worden gebruikt? Welke criteria kunnen worden aangewend in afwezigheid van SEE data? • update van de bestaande categorisering indien dit nodig wordt geacht. Een alternatief is om een nieuwe ruimtelijke indeling te maken of aanbevelingen op te stellen voor nieuwe ruimtelijk selectieve beleidsmaatregelen. De resultaten van de eerste drie stappen in dit onderzoek - die zullen uitgevoerd worden in 2012 en 2013 - zijn nodig om te bepalen of een loutere update van de huidige categorisering voldoende is, of dat er nieuwe ruimtelijk selectieve woonbeleidsmaatregelen nodig zijn met een nieuwe categorisering. Deze vierde stap staat op het programma voor 2014. Het is aangewezen om de relevantie van ruimtelijk selectieve woonbeleidsmaatregelen, hun effectiviteit en mogelijke alternatieven te bespreken met een groep van onderzoekers, beleidsmakers en andere stakeholders om op dit vlak tot een evenwichtige beslissing te komen. De resultaten van dit onderzoek kunnen aangewend worden in het kader van de beleidsvoorbereiding voor het Investeringsprogramma sociale woningbouw en het Grond- en Panden beleidsplan. Indien er

58

nood is aan een nieuwe ruimtelijke categorisering, zal deze afgestemd worden op ruimtelijke categorie-indelingen die in andere beleidsdomeinen worden gebruikt, zoals ruimtelijke planning, regionale en landelijke ontwikkeling, sociaal beleid etc. Het tweede onderdeel komt aan bod in 2015 en betreft een studie van de mechanismen achter de woningproductie in Vlaanderen. Deze woningproductie gebeurt algemeen beschouwd in een statische markt, terwijl de stedelijke regio's steeds meer kenmerken van een dynamische markt vertonen. Een voorbeeld hiervan vinden we bij de toegenomen productie van kleinere woningen in de steden in antwoord op de vraag naar woningen voor ouderen en kleinere huishoudens. Veranderingen in de structuur van de woningproductie kunnen leiden tot een verandering in de territoriale selectiviteit. De studie zal uitgevoerd worden voor verschillende segmenten van de woningmarkt en zal volgende thema's verkennen: de grote spelers onder de projectmakelaars, de kleine ontwikkelaars en de lokale vastgoedmakelaars, de woonvoorkeuren bij recente private woonprojecten en de woonvoorkeuren van individuele bouwers. Per segment zullen er interviews met woningproducenten en bewoners plaatsvinden.

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Bijlage 1. Meerjarenplan. Steunpunt Wonen Versie 23 januari Promotor-coördinator: Prof. Dr. Erik Buyst

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