Batavia Technical Corner 28 March 2013 Parningotan Julio, CMT –
[email protected]
IHSG : - Candle white marubozu dengan badan yang panjang dan volume yang tinggi (minat beli besar). - Break keatas resistance dan uppper Bollinger band membentuk all time high. - Indikator ROC menguat dan break keatas bearish trendline. - MACD berpotensi untuk membentuk golden cross. Comment: - Break all time menegaskan continuation dari bullish trend, namun throwback untuk menguji support dari break out tersebut dapat terjadi pada perdagangan hari ini. Oleh karenanya IHSG diperkirakan akan cenderung bergerak mixed dengan potensi untuk menguat. Support di level 4,900 – 4,855, resistance 4,955.
Batavia Technical Corner
BBCA (Rp 11,000) – Speculative Buy (SB)
BBCA : -
Harga break keatas rectangle pattern dan upper Bollinger band.
-
Break out diiringi peningkatan volume yang diatas average 1 bulan.
-
Relative Strength terhadap IHSG membentuk false break out bullish trend line.
-
Indikator ROC rebound setelah menguji support MA-5 hari dan break keatas bearish trend line.
Recommendation: -
2
Speculative buy. Support: Rp. 10,900, resistance: Rp. 11,300 – Rp. 11,550. Stop loss: Rp. 10,850.
28 March 2013
Batavia Technical Corner
MDLN (Rp 1,020) – Speculative Buy (SB)
MDLN : -
Volume perdagangan diatas average 1 bulan.
-
Break upper Bollinger band dan membentuk all time high.
-
ADX dan +DI line mengindikasikan trend bullish, namun sudah rawan akan koreksi.
-
Indikator ROC, RSI, Stochastic, MACD dan Relative Strength terhadap IHSG uptrending.
Recommendation: -
3
Speculative buy. Support: Rp. 1,000, resistance: Rp. 1,020. Stop loss: Rp. 990.
28 March 2013
Batavia Technical Corner
SMGR (Rp 18,450) – Speculative Buy (SB)
SMGR : -
Harga break keatas resistance di Rp. 18,350.
-
Candle mirip dengan three white soldier pattern.
-
Volume perdagangan masih diatas average 1 bulan.
-
Stochastic menguat dan break keatas bearish trend line.
Recommendation: -
4
Speculative buy. Support: Rp. 18,350, resistance: Rp. 19,050. Stop loss: Rp. 18,300.
28 March 2013
Batavia Technical Corner
28 March 2013
What The Chart Says ? Ticker S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Sektor Industri Dasar & Kimia (Basic Industry & Chemicals)
Price
23,967 22,667 23,083 23,317 23,733 INTP Sektor Barang Konsumsi (Consumer Goods Industry)
23,500
Rec
Speculative Ditutup diatas resistance zone, Stochastic & MACD membentuk golden cross, Buy volume perdagangan sedikit dibawah average 1 bln, break upper Bollinger band
INDF
7,150
7,350
7,450
7,650
7,750
ICBP
8,767
9,133
9,517
9,883
10,267
1,250 1,270 KLBF Sektor Keuangan (Finance)
1,280
1,300
1,310
Buy if 7,550 Break Price Buy if 9,500 Break Price Speculative 1,290 Buy
BBNI
4,700
4,850
4,975
5,125
5,250
5,000
BBRI
8,567
8,683
8,767
8,883
8,967
8,800
9,767 9,533 9,883 BMRI Sektor Infastruktur (Infastructure)
10,117
10,233
10,000
5,733 5,817 5,883 5,967 JSMR Sektor Aneka Industri (Michellaneous Industry)
6,033
5,900
8,000 7,750 7,850 7,900 8,050 ASII Sektor Properti & Real Estate (Property & Real Estate) WIKA
1,945
1,985
2,030
2,070
2,115
View
Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Buy if Break R1
Candle white marubozu dan dengan badan yang panjang diiringi oleh volume yang diatas average 1 bulan, Stochastic golden cross, harga tertahan resistance Harga break keatas resistance namun tertahan upper Bollinger band, MACD golden cross, volume perdagangan diatas average 1 bulan, RS-IHSG uptrending Stochastic keluar dari oversold area, penguatan tidak diiringi oleh volume yang kuat, ROC break keatas bearish trend line, indikator Bollinger band masih flat Break keatas resistance dan upper Bollinger band, white long candle dengan volume yang kuat, RS-IHSG break keatas resistance, ROC break keatas MA-5 Stochastic keluar dari oversold area, penguatan diiringi oleh volume yang kuat, Relative Strength terhadap IHSG downtrending, Bollinger band masih sempit White long candlestick dengan volume yang tinggi, mendekati resistance dari rectangle pattern, Stochastic golden cross, harga upward crossover MA-5 hari
Speculative Break resistance dan upper Bollinger band diiringi oleh volume yang tinggi, Buy MACD golden cross, Stochastic menguat dan memasuki overbought area
Buy if MACD berpotensi untuk golden cross, Stochastic keluar dari oversold area, 7,950 Break Price candle white marubozu dengan badan yang panjang namun volume tidak kuat
2,025
Sell if Break S1
Candle membentuk shooting star dan gagal break keatas resistance, volume perdagangan diatas average 1 bulan, Stochastic memasuki overbought area
Note: • Perhitungan support dan resistance menggunakan rumus pivot, bisa berbeda dengan hasil perhitungan yang menggunakan chart. • Apabila harga naik di atas level pivot, maka saham tersebut berpeluang untuk mencatatkan penguatan. • Apabila harga turun di bawah level pivot, maka saham tersebut berpeluang untuk mengalami pelemahan. Batavia Prosperindo Sekuritas Investment Ratings: •Trading Buy (TB): kecenderungan harga menguat cukup tinggi •Speculative Buy (SB) : harga berpotensi menguat, namun dengan risiko tertentu •Buy if Break (BiB) : harga berpotensi menguat bila break resistance atau pattern tertentu •Sell if Break (SiB) : harga berpotensi melemah bila break support atau pattern tertentu •Trading Sell (TS) : kecenderungan harga melemah cukup tinggi •Stoploss : level risiko maksimal apabila pergerakan tidak sesuai dengan ekspektasi •Resistance : level ekspektasi harga mengalami tahanan, dapat dijadikan sebagai tempat profit taking (minimal return) •Risk & Reward : perbandingan antara risiko maksimal dengan minimum return
5
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand
Head of Research
Banking, Consumer, Gas Infrastructure & Strategy
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Parningotan Julio, CMT
Analyst
Technical
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Arandi Nugraha
Analyst
Coal & Plantation
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Steven Gunawan
Research Associate
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