ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

Kamis 10 Agustus 2017 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 7

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Saham Asia dan saham berjangka A.S. tergelincir pada hari Rabu dan investor memburu aset aman resiko seperti Treasury A.S., emas dan yen karena ketegangan di semenanjung Korea meningkat, dengan Pyongyang mengatakan bahwa pihaknya mempertimbangkan untuk menyerang Guam. Seorang juru bicara Tentara Rakyat Korea mengatakan dalam sebuah pernyataan bahwa pihaknya "dengan hati-hati memeriksa" rencana serangan rudal ke wilayah Pasifik A.S., yang memiliki pangkalan militer Amerika yang besar. Komentar tersebut muncul beberapa jam setelah Presiden A.S. Donald Trump mengatakan kepada Korea Utara bahwa ancaman terhadap Amerika Serikat akan dibalas dengan "api dan kemarahan", menggetarkan perdagangan di pasar saham dunia. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia Pasifik di luar Jepang turun 0,5 persen, sementara Nikkei Jepang kehilangan 1,3 persen karena penguatan yen menurunkan minat investor. Sedangkan saham Korea Selatan, yang telah menjadi salah satu pemain terkuat di dunia sepanjang tahun ini, turun 1,1 persen, sementara won juga melemah, dimana keduanya mencapai posisi terendah lebih dari satu bulan.  Eropa: Saham Eropa jatuh kembali pada hari Rabu karena ketegangan geopolitik mengirim semua indeks saham utama ke wilayah negatif, disertai oleh sedikit peningkatan volatilitas dalam periode perdagangan musim panas yang biasanya sepi. Aset berisiko terkena dampak global setelah Korea Utara mengatakan sedang mempertimbangkan rencana untuk menyerang Guam, yang memiliki basis militer besar A.S. Pada hari yang juga menandai 10 tahun sejak dimulainya krisis keuangan global, indeks STOXX 600 Eropa ditutup melemah 0,7 persen, sementara saham zona euro dan blue-chips turun lebih dari 1 persen. CAC 40 Prancis turun 1,4 persen setelah sebuah mobil menabrak sekelompok tentara di pinggiran kota Paris dalam apa yang dikatakan sebagai tindakan yang disengaja, sementara DAX Jerman juga turun 1,1 persen saat imbal hasil obligasi turun.  AS & Global Markets: Memanasnya konflik antara AS-Korut telah mendorong investor menjauhi saham dan juga aset beresiko lainnya pada hari Rabu dan memburu aset aman resiko seperti emas dan Treasury. Namun meskipun indeks global mencatat prosentase penurunan terbesarnya dalam lebih dari sebulan, ekuitas AS hanya ditutup melemah tipis seiring sehatnya laporan keuangan perusahaan dan rilis data ekonomi yang kuat belakangan ini. Franc Swiss menguat terhadap USD dan juga euro, yen juga naik terhadap USD, sedangkan emas melejit ke level tertinggi hampir 2 bulan, demikian juga harga minyak turut naik seiring melemahnya USD.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 20318.11 (20/June/2017)

309.32 (29/May/2017) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 322.16 (25/Jul/2017)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 27876.12 (09/Aug/2017)

21169.11 (01/Mar/2017) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 22179.11 (08/Aug/2017)

2400.98 (01/Mar/2017) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2490.87 (08/Aug/2017)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3305.43130 (02/Aug/2017)

18224.68 (17/Apr/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)

258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

3016.53050 (11/May/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 09 Agustus 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

22048.70 2474.02 6352.332 110.04 1138.40

CHANGE     

36.64/ 0.17% 0.90/ 0.04% 18.128/ 0.28% 0.26/ 0.24% 10.22/ 0.91%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

19738.71 309.52 27757.09 3275.57300 49.70

CHANGE     

257.30/1.29% 3.88/1.24% 97.82/0.35% 6.29980/0.19% 0.53/1.08%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 10 Agustus 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 7

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/07-Aug-17

06:30 06:50 N/A N/A N/A 10:00 12:00 12:00 13:00 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:15 14:15 14:15 14:15 14:30 14:30 15:30 22:45 All Day 00:25 02:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 08:30 08:30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 11:30 12:45 12:45 13:00 13:00 13:00 13:00 17:00 05:00 06:00 06:50 06:50 07:30 07:30 08:10 08:10 08:10 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 10:00

AU JP CN CN HK NZ JP JP DE DE AU CH CH CH CH CH GB GB EZ US CA US US JP JP JP AU AU CN CN CN CN CN CN CN JP CH CH DE DE DE DE US AU KR JP JP AU AU JP JP JP AU AU CN CN KR

Tue/08-Aug-17

08-Aug - 18-Aug

Wed/09-Aug-17

INDICATORS

AiG Perf of Construction Index Official Reserve Assets Foreign Reserves BoP Current Account Balance Foreign Reserves 2Yr Inflation Expectation Leading Index CI Coincident Index Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production WDA YoY Foreign Reserves Foreign Currency Reserves CPI MoM CPI YoY CPI EU Harmonized MoM CPI EU Harmonized YoY Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Halifax House Prices MoM Sentix Investor Confidence Fed's Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy in Nashville, TN Bank Holiday/Civic Holiday Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Bloomington, MN Consumer Credit BoP Current Account Balance BoP Current Account Adjusted Trade Balance BoP Basis NAB Business Conditions NAB Business Confidence Imports YoY Trade Balance Exports YoY CNY Imports YoY CNY Trade Balance CNY Exports YoY Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Bankruptcies YoY Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate SA Trade Balance Current Account Balance Exports SA MoM Imports SA MoM NFIB Small Business Optimism RBA's Kent Gives Bloomberg Address in Sydney Unemployment rate SA Money Stock M2 YoY Money Stock M3 YoY Westpac Consumer Conf Index Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 5~10 Year BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 10~25 Years BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 25 Years~ Home Loans MoM Investment Lending CPI YoY PPI YoY Money Supply M2 SA MoM

PER

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

REV.

Jul Jul Jul 2Q P Jul 3Q Jun P Jun P Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug

60.5 $1260.0b $3080.7b $52.9b $413.3b 2.09% 106.3 117.2 -1.1% 2.4% 714.3b -0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 2.1% 0.4% 27.7

--$3074.9b ---106.2 117.2 0.2% 3.7% ---0.3% 0.3% --2.0% 0.2% 27.8

56 $1249.8b $3056.8b $18.4b $408.0b 2.17% 104.6 115.8 1.2% 5.0% A$84.1b 693.5b -0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 2.6% -1.0% 28.3

4.8%

Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul

$12.40b ¥934.6b ¥1522.5b ¥518.5b 15 12 11.0% $46.74b 11.2% 14.7% 321.20b 7.2% 0.28% 3.0% 3.2% 22.3b 23.6b -2.8% -4.5% 105.2

$15.30b ¥860.5b ¥1502.9b ¥571.5b --18.2% $45.00b 14.8% 22.6% 293.55b 11.0% ---3.2% 23.0b 24.5b -0.3% 0.2% 103.8

$18.410b ¥1653.9b ¥1400.9b -¥115.1b 15 9 17.2% $42.80b 17.3% 23.1% 294.30b 11.3% 2.3% -7.47% 3.0% 3.2% 22.0b 17.3b 1.4% 1.2% 103.6

Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug

3.6% 4.0% 3.4% 95.5 -1.2%

3.8% 3.9% 3.3% ---

3.8% 3.9% 3.3% 96.6 0.4%

Jun Jun Jul Jul Jun

0.5% 1.6% 1.4% 5.5% -

1.5% -1.5% 5.6% --

1.0% -1.4% 1.5% 5.5% 0.3%

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

693.7b

-0.9%

$18.28b

14 8 $42.75b

16.0b 1.5% 1.3%

1.1%



Thu/10-Aug-17

10-Aug - 15-Aug 10-Aug - 15-Aug 10-Aug - 15-Aug 10-Aug - 15-Aug 10-Aug - 15-Aug

Fri/11-Aug-17

10:00 10:00 13:00 19:30 21:00 21:00 21:30 21:30 21:30 04:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 08:00 08:10 08:10 09:00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 11:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 19:00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 01:00 05:30

KR KR JP US US US US US US NZ JP JP JP JP JP AU JP JP JP CN CN CN CN CN JP GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB US US US US US US US US US US NZ

06:30 13:00 13:00 13:00 13:00 15:30 15:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30

AU DE DE DE DE HK HK US US US US US US US US

Money Supply L SA MoM Bank Lending To Household Total Machine Tool Orders YoY Nonfarm Productivity Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Wholesale Inventories MoM DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories RBNZ Official Cash Rate Machine Orders MoM Machine Orders YoY PPI MoM PPI YoY Housing Loans YoY Consumer Inflation Expectation BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 1~3 Year BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 3~5 Years Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies Money Supply M2 YoY Money Supply M1 YoY Money Supply M0 YoY New Yuan Loans CNY Aggregate Financing CNY Tertiary Industry Index MoM Industrial Production MoM Industrial Production YoY Manufacturing Production MoM Manufacturing Production YoY Construction Output SA MoM Construction Output SA YoY Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Trade Balance NIESR GDP Estimate Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims PPI Final Demand MoM PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM PPI Final Demand YoY PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Fed's Dudley to Hold Press Briefing Monthly Budget Statement BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI RBA's Lowe Before House Economics Commitee in Melbourne CPI MoM CPI YoY CPI EU Harmonized MoM CPI EU Harmonized YoY GDP SA QoQ GDP YoY CPI MoM CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM CPI YoY CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY CPI Core Index SA CPI Index NSA Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY

Jun Jul Jul P 2Q P Jun Jun F Aug-04 Aug-04 Aug-04 Aug-10 Jun Jun Jul Jul 2Q Aug

26.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% -6451k 569k 3424k 1.75%

---0.7% 0.6% 0.6% -2200k --1500k 1.75% 3.7% -1.1% 0.2% 2.3% ---

0.5% KR731.0t 31.1% 0.0% -0.5% 0.6% -1527k -39k -2517k 1.75% -3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 2.1% 3.3% 4.4%

Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Aug-05 Jul-29 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

-9.4% 14.0% 6.5% 800.0b 1000.0b 0.2% 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% -£11000 ---240k 1960k 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 2.1% --

3.26 9.4% 15.0% 6.6% 1540.0b 1780.0b -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 0.4% -1.2% -0.3% -£11863 -£3796 -£3073 0.3% 240k 1968k 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%

Jul Jul

---

-$90.2b 56.2

Jul F Jul F Jul F Jul F 2Q 2Q Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

-----3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 1.7% -244.918 ---

0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 1.7% 251.627 244.955 1.1% 0.8%


0.1% -0.1%



Sat/12-Aug-17

20:40

US

22:30 All Day 00:00

US JP US

Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Arlington, Texas Fed's Kashkari Speaks to Independent Community Bankers of Minn Bank Holiday/Mountain Day Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

Aug-11

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@her1en,@ErwinRiset)




SSIamU7 (Nikkei Sep Futures) – Last Trading Date: 11 Sep 2017

 Koreksi tajam hadapi shorterm target di sekitar 19487  Fase downtrend berpotensi berkembang selama resistance krusial di 19860 tetap utuh (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

09 Aug SSIpmU7 09 Aug SSIamU7 08 Aug SSIpmU7 08 Aug SSIamU7 07 Aug SSIpmU7 07 Aug SSIamU7 04 Aug SSIpmU7 04 Aug SSIamU7 03 Aug SSIpmU7 03 Aug SSIamU7

19745 19930 19985 20025 20035 20070 19950 19955 20005 20030

19770 19930 20025 20055 20055 20090 20055 19970 20010 20050

19675 19640 19925 19955 20020 20020 19945 19920 19950 19970

95 290 100 100 35 70 110 50 60 80

19770 19740 19945 19990 20050 20030 20035 19955 19960 20010

--19740 --19990 --20030 --19955 --20010

 30  250  45  40  20  75  80  55  50  55

0.15 1.25 0.23 0.20 0.10 0.38 0.40 0.27 0.25 0.27

30286 95094 13292 39217 7603 33864 18774 31989 17471 41198

WEEKLY

AUGUST

JULY

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

20090 (07/Aug)

19640 (09/Aug)

20100 (02/Aug)

19640 (09/Aug)

20200 (03/Jul)

19830 (07/Jul)

20290 (20/Jun)

18190 (17/Apr)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

20170

Reaction high (hourly)

20125


20025


19860

Pivot line

19640

low 09/May/2017

19565

Low 30/May/2017 (Reaction low)

19285

Low 19/May/2017 (Reaction low)

19160

Low 28/Apr/2017 (Reaction low)

BUY

----

SELL

19820

STOP LOSS

19900

TARGET


19680 19610



KSU7 (Kospi Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 14 Sep 2017

 Koreksi breakout lowerline dari pola trend channel sekaligus uji tembus area support di 310.35  Fase downtrend berpeluang berlanjut, dengan koreksi hadapi area support di 306.50 – 305.50 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

09 Aug 08 Aug 07 Aug 04 Aug 03 Aug 02 Aug

311.70 315.10 314.65 312.90 317.55 318.75

312.70 316.20 316.30 314.90 317.65 319.45

309.65 312.25 314.10 312.55 310.70 318.10

3.05 3.95 2.20 2.35 6.95 1.35

310.00 314.20 314.25 314.20 313.00 318.50

310.00 314.20 314.25 314.20 313.00 318.50

 4.20  0.05  0.05  1.20  5.50  0.60

1.34 0.02 0.02 0.38 1.73 0.19

272029 258916 190281 218550 369407 129388

WEEKLY

AUGUST

JULY

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

316.30 (07/Aug)

309.65 (09/Aug)

319.45 (01/Aug)

309.65 (09/Aug)

322.75 (25/Jul)

310.35 (05/Jul)

322.75 (25/Jul)

259.25 (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

317.65

High 03/Aug/2017

316.30

High 07/Aug/2017 (Reaction high)

312.70

High 09/Aug/2017

311.20 309.50

Reaction high (hourly) Low 23/Jun/2017

307.80

Low 22/Jun/2017

306.65

Low 21/Jun/2017 (Reaction low)

305.50

Low 15/Jun/2017 (Reaction low)

BUY

----

SELL

310.60

STOP LOSS

311.40

TARGET


309.50 307.85



HSIQ7 (Hang Seng August Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 Aug 2017

 Koreksi berkembang, sedang uji area support di 27550  Jika 27550 pecah, koreksi berpotensi hadapi area trendline support di sekitar 27470 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

09 Aug 08 Aug 07 Aug 04 Aug 03 Aug 02 Aug 01 Aug

27740 27600 27560 27550 27460 27507 27221

27785 27808 27720 27576 27588 27655 27525

27550 27561 27560 27464 27363 27483 27221

235 247 160 112 225 172 304

27685 27793 27613 27535 27499 27550 27515

27685 27793 27613 27535 27498 27552 27515

WEEKLY

AUGUST

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.39 0.65 0.28 0.13 0.20 0.13 1.05

103131 87984 69452 75870 106084 117231 105184

108 180 78 37 54 35 287

JULY

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

27808 (08/Aug)

27550 (09/Aug)

27808 (08/Aug)

27221 (01/Aug)

27241 (31/Jul)

25110 (05/Jul)

27808 (08/Aug)

21863 (03/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

28458

High 27/May/2015

28178

High 28/May/2015

27880

Peak level (hourly)

27774


27550

Horizontal support (hourly)

27464

Reaction low (hourly)

27350

Reaction low (15 minutes)

27189

Reaction low (hourly)

BUY

----

SELL

27720

STOP LOSS

27800

TARGET


27525 27430

ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

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