ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook Rabu 31 Mei 2017 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 7

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Kekhawatiran mengenai situasi yang melibatkan Yunani, Italia dan Bank Sentral Eropa memicu tekanan pada euro pada hari Selasa. Ketakutan geopolitik Eropa melemahkan risk appetite, membebani saham Asia dan mengangkat safe havens termasuk yen dan emas, meski perdagangan tipis dengan beberapa pasar tutup untuk liburan. Indeks terbesar MSCI dari saham Asia Pasifik di luar Jepang turun 0,2 persen dengan pasar A.S. dan Inggris ditutup pada hari Senin. Pasar China, Hong Kong dan Taiwan ditutup untuk liburan pada hari Selasa. Nikkei Jepang berakhir datar, ditahan oleh penguatan yen. KOSPI Korea Selatan turun 0,4 persen karena investor mengambil keuntungan menyusul reli hingga tembus rekor tertingginya bulan ini.  Eropa: Saham Eropa jatuh di hari Selasa, catat kerugian 4 hari secara berturutan, dengan saham perbankan pimpin penurunan akibat kekhawatiran politik dan juga adanya downgrade dari sebuah broker global terkenal. Indeks STOXX 600 turun 0,2% sementara indeks FTSE 100 Inggris merosot 0,4%. Kekhawatiran terhadap pemilu awal di Italia telah memicu profit-taking sejak pekan lalu utamanya di sektor perbankan.  AS & Global Markets: Bursa global melemah di hari Selasa, tertekan oleh kondisi poilitik di Eropa dan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS, mendorong minat pada aset aman resiko seperti yen dan obligasi AS dan Jerman. Harga minyak masih tertekan meskipun ada kesepakatan OPEC pekan lalu untuk memperpanjang program pengurangan produksi minyak mentahnya hingga kuartal pertama 2018. Melemahnya data ekonomi AS (consumer confidence dan core inflation) serta minimnya perkembangan langkah pemangkasan pajak dan stimulus lainnya dari Washington telah meredupkan outlook untuk profit perusahaan dan aktifitas ekonomi yang lebih luas. Di Eropa, pemilu di Italia mungkin terjadi pada awal September setelah Gerakan Bintang 5 menjadi partai besar keempat untuk mendukung peralihan ke sistem pemilihan proporsional. Masalah utang Yunani juga terus meresahkan setelah gagal mencapai kesepakatan mengenai angsuran berikutnya dari program bailout awal bulan ini.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 19998.49 (16/May/2017)

309.32 (29/May/2017) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 309.32 (29/May/2017)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 25744.72 (29/May/2017)

21169.11 (01/Mar/2017) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 21169.11 (01/Mar/2017)

2400.98 (01/Mar/2017) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2418.71 (26/May/2017)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3295.18700 (07/Apr/2017)

18224.68 (17/Apr/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)

258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

3016.53050 (11/May/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 30 Mei 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

21029.47 2412.91 6203.189 110.82 1123.49

CHANGE     

50.81/ 0.24% 2.91/ 0.12% 7.005/ 0.11% 0.42/ 0.38% 2.44/ 0.22%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

19677.85 304.59 HOLIDAY HOLIDAY 49.65

CHANGE     

4.72/0.02% 1.93/0.63% 62.36/0.24% 2.33370/0.08% 0.34/0.68%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 31 Mei 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 7

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/29-May-17

08:15 15:00 20:00 All Day All Day All Day All Day 05:45 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:30 06:50 08:30 08:30 14:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:30 All Day 04:00 04:00 06:00 06:00 06:01 06:50 06:50 08:00 08:00 08:00 08:00 14:55 14:55 16:00 16:00 16:00 19:00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30

US EZ EZ CN DE GB US NZ AU JP JP JP JP AU AU CH EZ EZ EZ EZ EZ DE DE DE DE CA US US US US US US US US US CN KR KR KR KR GB JP JP CN CN NZ NZ DE DE EZ EZ EZ US CA CA CA DE

Tue/30-May-17

Wed/31-May-17

INDICATORS

PER

Fed's Williams Speaks in Singapore M3 Money Supply YoY Apr Draghi Speaks at European Parliament Economic Committee Bank Holiday/Dragon Boat Festival UK Bank Holiday Bank Holiday/Spring Bank Holiday Bank Holiday/Memorial Day Building Permits MoM Apr ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index May-28 Jobless Rate Apr Job-To-Applicant Ratio Apr Overall Household Spending YoY Apr Retail Sales MoM Apr Building Approvals MoM Apr Building Approvals YoY Apr KOF Leading Indicator May Economic Confidence May Business Climate Indicator May Industrial Confidence May Services Confidence May Consumer Confidence May F CPI MoM May P CPI YoY May P CPI EU Harmonized MoM May P CPI EU Harmonized YoY May P Current Account Balance 1Q Personal Income Apr Personal Spending Apr Real Personal Spending Apr PCE Deflator MoM Apr PCE Deflator YoY Apr PCE Core MoM Apr PCE Core YoY Apr Consumer Confidence May Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May Bank Holiday/Dragon Boat Festival Business Survey Manufacturing Jun Business Survey Non-Manufacturing Jun Industrial Production SA MoM Apr Industrial Production YoY Apr GfK Consumer Confidence May Industrial Production MoM Apr P Industrial Production YoY Apr P Manufacturing PMI May Non-manufacturing PMI May ANZ Activity Outlook May ANZ Business Confidence May Unemployment Change (000's) May Unemployment Claims Rate SA May Unemployment Rate Apr CPI Estimate YoY May CPI Core YoY May A Fed's Kaplan Speaks in New York Quarterly GDP Annualized 1Q GDP MoM Mar GDP YoY Mar Merkel, Lautenschlaeger Address German Credit-Union Conference

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

4.9%

5.2%

5.3%

-7.6%

--2.8% 1.46 -0.7% 0.1% 3.0% -18.1% -110.0 1.11 3.2 14.2 -3.3 -0.1% 1.6% -0.1% 1.6% -$12.00b 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 1.5% 119.5 15

-1.8% 110.5 2.8% 1.45 -1.3% 0.2% -13.4% -19.9% 106 109.6 1.09 2.6 14.2 -3.3 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% -$10.73b 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% -0.2% 1.8% -0.1% 1.6% 120.3 16.8

--0.8% 5.6% -8 4.3% 6.2% 51 ----15k 5.8% 9.4% 1.5% 1.0%

84 78 1.0% 3.0% -7 -1.9% 3.5% 51.2 54 37.7 11 -15k 5.8% 9.5% 1.9% 1.2%

3.6% 0.2% 2.9%

2.6% 0.0% 2.5%

2.8% 1.48 -1.4% 1.4% 4.4% -17.2% 101.6 109.2 0.90 2.8 13.0 -3.3 -0.2% 1.5% -0.2% 1.4% -$14.05b 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 117.9 17.2

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

REV.

-1.2%

-10.3% 106.3 109.7 1.10

-3.6

-$11.78b 0.3% 0.5% 1.9%

119.4



Thu/01-Jun-17

Fri/02-Jun-17

21:00 21:00 01:00 05:45 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:30 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:10 07:30 07:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:45 12:45 12:45 14:15 N/A N/A 14:15 14:30 14:55 15:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:00 16:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:15 19:30 19:30 19:30 20:30 20:45 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 21:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 06:00 06:00 06:50 06:50 08:00 12:00 N/A 15:30 16:00 16:00 19:30 19:30

US US US NZ KR KR KR AU KR KR KR US JP KR AU AU JP CN CH CH EZ EZ EZ CH CH DE EZ HK HK GB EZ EZ EZ EZ US US US US US CA US US US US US US US US US KR KR JP JP AU JP GB GB EZ EZ CA US

Pending Home Sales MoM Apr Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Apr U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Terms of Trade Index QoQ 1Q CPI MoM May CPI YoY May CPI Core YoY May AiG Perf of Mfg Index May Exports YoY May Imports YoY May Trade Balance May Fed's Williams Speaks in Seoul Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May F Nikkei South Korea PMI Mfg May Private Capital Expenditure 1Q Retail Sales MoM Apr BOJ Harada speaks in Gifu Caixin China PMI Mfg May GDP QoQ 1Q GDP YoY 1Q ECB's Villeroy Speaks at Brussels Economic Forum in Brussels China's Li Meets With EU's Tusk, Juncker in Brussels EU-China Summit in Brussels June 1-2 Retail Sales Real YoY Apr PMI Manufacturing May Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI May F Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May F Retail Sales Value YoY Apr Retail Sales Volume YoY Apr Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA May EU's Dombrovskis Speaks at Brussels Economic Forum ECB's Hakkarainen, Costa, EBA's Enria Speak in Lisbon EU's Moscovici Speaks at Brussels Economic Forum in Brussels Italy's Padoan on Panel at Brussels Economic Forum in Brussels Fed's Powell Speaks on Normalization of Monetary Policy ADP Employment Change May Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI May Markit US Manufacturing PMI May F ISM Manufacturing May ISM Prices Paid May ISM New Orders May ISM Employment May Construction Spending MoM Apr EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks w/e GDP SA QoQ 1Q F GDP YoY 1Q F Monetary Base YoY May Monetary Base End of period May HIA New Home Sales MoM Apr Consumer Confidence Index May United Kingdom Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody's Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI May PPI MoM Apr PPI YoY Apr Labor Productivity QoQ 1Q Change in Nonfarm Payrolls May RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

0.5% --

-0.8% 0.5%

3.9% 0.2% 2.0% 1.4% -16.5% 14.0% $7180m

5.7% -0.1% 1.9% 1.3% 59.2 24.2% 16.6% $13300m

--0.8% 0.3%

52 49.4 -2.1% -0.1%

50.1 ---

50.3 0.1% 0.6%

--59.4 57 2.8% 2.5% 56.1

2.1% 57.4 59.4 57 3.1% 2.7% 57.3

180k 239k -1.920m --54.6 66.4 --0.5% ---0.9% 2.7% ---43.5

177k 234k 235.25k 1.923m 55.9 52.5 54.8 68.5 57.5 52 -0.2% -4.432m -0.485m -0.787m 0.9% 2.7% 19.8% ¥462.2t -1.1% 43.2

52.7 0.2% 4.5% -185k

53.1 -0.3% 3.9% 0.4% 211k



Sat/03-Jun-17

19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 00:00

US US US US US US US US US US US

Trade Balance Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Change in Private Payrolls Change in Manufact. Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings MoM Average Hourly Earnings YoY Average Weekly Hours All Employees Labor Force Participation Rate Underemployment Rate Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

Apr May May May May May May May May May Jun-02

-$46.1b -173k 5k 4.4% 0.2% 2.7% 34.4 ----

-$43.7b -6k 194k 6k 4.4% 0.3% 2.5% 34.4 62.9% 8.6% --

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)




SSIamM7 (Nikkei Jun Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 June 2017

 Area 19690 masih efektif membatasi rebound  Koreksi membentuk horizontal support di 19565  Support krusial di 19490  Short-term resistance di 19690 – 19715 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

30 May SSIpmM7 30 May SSIamM7 29 May SSIpmM7 29 May SSIamM7 26 May SSIpmM7 26 May SSIamM7 25 May SSIpmM7 25 May SSIamM7 24 May SSIpmM7 24 May SSIamM7

19650 19715 19675 19720 19680 19775 19805 19710 19740 19780

19680 19715 19695 19740 19720 19800 19855 19850 19770 19790

19610 19565 19670 19625 19590 19680 19755 19710 19690 19690

70 150 25 115 130 120 100 140 80 100

19635 19665 19690 19690 19715 19705 19815 19815 19730 19730

--19665 --19690 --19705 --19815 --19730

 30  25 UNCH  15  10  110 UNCH  85 UNCH  80

0.15 0.13 UNCH 0.08 0.05 0.56 UNCH 0.43 UNCH 0.41

17842 37602 3972 28133 22066 35358 25044 39866 18090 37758

WEEKLY

MAY

APRIL

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

19740 (29/May)

19565 (30/May)

20030 (09/May)

19165 (01/May)

19325 (26/Apr)

18190 (17/Apr)

20030 (09/May)

18190 (17/Apr)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

19995

Horizontal resistance

19860

Reaction high (hourly)

19800


19715


19565

Horizontal support (hourly)

19490

Reaction low (hourly)

19280


19160

Horizontal support (hourly)

BUY

----

SELL

19675

STOP LOSS

19745

TARGET


19540 19470



KSM7 (Kospi Jun Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 June 2017

 Reversal berkembang sejak catat level puncak di 309.50  Koreksi hadapi area support di 300.35  Short-term resistance di 305 – 307 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

30 May 29 May 26 May 25 May 24 May 23 May

307.00 308.20 305.60 303.35 302.25 301.15

307.15 309.50 308.75 305.60 302.95 303.80

303.20 305.25 305.20 302.40 301.40 300.70

3.95 4.25 3.55 3.20 1.55 3.10

304.45 306.90 307.45 305.45 302.00 301.15

304.45 306.90 307.45 305.60 302.00 301.15

WEEKLY

MAY

CHANGE      

2.45 0.55 1.85 3.60 0.85 0.45

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.80 0.18 0.61 1.19 0.28 0.15

238132 229693 264607 227780 140933 236516

APRIL

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

309.50 (29/May)

303.20 (30/May)

309.50 (29/May)

288.65 (02/May)

288.90 (28/Apr)

275.45 (11/Apr)

309.50 (29/May)

259.25 (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

310.88

50% Fibo. Projection (Daily)

309.50

High 29/May/2017

307.15

High 30/May/2017

305.60

Pivot line (hourly)

303.20


301.15


299.00


295.80

Low 18/May/2017

BUY

----

SELL

305.25

STOP LOSS

306.10

TARGET


303.10 302.00



HSIM7 (Hang Seng June Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 June 2017

 Setelah hit high 25723 (HSIK7), harga bergrak ke kisaran 25500 an (HSIM7)  Short-term support di sekitar 25358 – 25300 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

30 May (HSIM7) 29 May (HSIM7) 26 May (HSIM7) 26 May 25 May 24 May 23 May

25410 25455 25669 25446 25378 25375

H 25555 25521 25723 25666 25422 25445

O 25377 25385 25585 25436 25303 25299

L 178 136 138 230 119 146

I 25487 25422 25625 25632 25420 25402

D 25483 25625 25633 25420 25402

A  65  6  8  212  18  61

Y 0.26 0.02 0.03 0.83 0.07 0.24

WEEKLY

MAY

APRIL

VOLUME 71261 71777 105608 172666 135487 112043

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

25555 (29/May)

25377 (29/May)

25723 (26/May)

24220 (05/May)

24646 (26/Apr)

23706 (19/Apr)

25723 (26/May)

21863 (03/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

26723

High 03/Jul/2015 (Weekly)

26358

High 10/Jul/2015 (Weekly)

25723

High 26/May/2017

25555

High 29/May/2017

25299


25194


25028


24991


BUY

----

SELL

25525

STOP LOSS

25600

TARGET


25350 25260

ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

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