ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

Kamis 17 Agustus 2017 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 7

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK  Asia: Dolar menimbun keuntungan besar pada hari Rabu setelah penjualan ritel A.S. yang kuat menghidupkan kembali kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve lainnya tahun ini, sementara saham Asia beringsut maju saat ketegangan di semenanjung Korea mereda. Pemimpin Korea Utara Kim Jong Un telah menunda keputusan untuk menembakkan rudal ke Guam sementara dia menunggu untuk melihat apa yang Amerika Serikat akan lakukan, karena Washington mengatakan bahwa ada dialog yang berlanjut dengan Kim. Indeks Kospi mencatat naik 0,6% sedangkan Nikkei Jepang kehilangan 0,1 persen. Investor juga bersiap menghadapi ketegangan menjelang 21 Agustus, saat latihan militer tahunan A.S.-Korea Selatan akan dimulai. Hingga laporan ini ditulis, investor masih menunggu hasil FOMC minutes untuk melihat peluang kenaikan suku bunga The Fed tahun ini.

 Eropa: Saham minyak dan pertambangan pimpin kenaikan indeks saham utama Eropa pada hari Rabu didukung oleh kenaikan harga logam dan angka PDB zona euro yang membaik. Indeks STOXX 600 Eropa ditutup naik 0,7 persen, hari ketiga kenaikan setelah aksi jual tajam pekan lalu. Saham zona euro dan blue chips juga melonjak 0,7 persen. Saham sumber daya dasar memberikan dorongan utama, setelah mencatat naik 2,5 persen. PDB kuartalan zona euro meningkat sebesar 0,6 persen dan angka pertumbuhan tahunannya meningkat menjadi 2,2 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya 2,1 persen.

 AS & Global Markets: Wall Street naik tipis pada hari Rabu namun ditutup jauh di bawah intraday high dan dolar turun pada gejolak terakhir di Washington dan pertemuan puncak Federal Reserve A.S. yang menunjukkan kekhawatiran tentang inflasi rendah. Yield Treasury A.S. turun usai FOMC minutes dan karena para investor khawatir akan terhambatnya upaya Trump untuk memenuhi janji probisnisnya. Pembuat kebijakan Fed siap untuk menggulirkan rencana untuk mengecilkan neraca keuangannya namun semakin waspada terhadap inflasi yang lemah dan sejumlah anggota meminta penghentian kenaikan suku bunga sampai jelas bahwa tren tersebut bersifat sementara, demikian FOMC minutes menjelaskan. Harga minyak turun lebih dari 1 persen, meskipun stok minyak mentah A.S. catat penurunan tertajam dalam satu tahun, karena data menunjukkan produksi domestik merayap memicu kekhawatiran yang lebih tinggi tentang berlimpahnya minyak mentah dunia. Spot emas berbalik arah dan bertambah 0,8 persen menjadi $ 1281.70 per ounce karena dolar turun setelah Fed minutes.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2016 HIGH 2017 HIGH 2017 LOW 2016 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 20318.11 (20/June/2017)

309.32 (29/May/2017) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 322.16 (25/Jul/2017)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 27876.12 (09/Aug/2017)

21169.11 (01/Mar/2017) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 22179.11 (08/Aug/2017)

2400.98 (01/Mar/2017) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 2490.87 (08/Aug/2017)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 3305.43130 (02/Aug/2017)

18224.68 (17/Apr/2017) 14864.01 (24/Jun/16)

258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

3016.53050 (11/May/2017) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 16 Agustus 2017 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

22024.87 2468.11 6345.109 110.18 1134.60

CHANGE     

25.88/ 0.12% 3.50/ 0.14% 12.096/ 0.19% 0.48/ 0.43% 0.33/ 0.03%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

19729.28 307.16 27409.07 3246.62450 46.77

CHANGE     

24.03/0.12% 2.23/0.73% 234.11/0.86% 4.63720/0.14% 0.78/1.64%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Kamis 17 Agustus 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 7

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

INDICATORS

PER

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

REV.

Mon/14-Aug-17

05:45 06:35 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 09:00 09:00 09:00 09:00 16:00 16:00

NZ AU JP JP JP JP JP JP CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN EZ EZ

2Q

2.0%

0.7%

1.5%

1.6%

2Q P 2Q P 2Q P 2Q P 2Q P 2Q P Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun

1.0% 4.0% 1.1% -0.4% 0.9% 2.4% 9.2% 15.3% 6.1% 825.5b 1220.0b 10.4% 10.4% 6.4% 6.8% -0.6% 2.6%

0.6% 2.5% 0.7% -0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 9.5% 14.0% 6.5% 800.0b 1000.0b -10.8% 10.5% 7.1% 6.9% -0.5% 2.8%

0.3% 1.0% -0.3% -0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 9.4% 15.0% 6.6% 1540.0b 1780.0b 2.3% 11.0% 10.4% 7.6% 6.9% 1.3% 4.0%

0.4% 1.5%

19:00 21:00 06:30 08:30 11:30 11:30 11:30 13:00 13:00 13:00 14:15 14:15 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 20:00 21:00

CA CA AU AU JP JP JP DE DE DE CH CH GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB GB US US US US US CA US KR AU GB GB GB GB GB

Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ RBA's Kent Gives Speech in Sydney GDP SA QoQ GDP Annualized SA QoQ GDP Nominal SA QoQ GDP Deflator YoY GDP Private Consumption QoQ GDP Business Spending QoQ Money Supply M2 YoY Money Supply M1 YoY Money Supply M0 YoY New Yuan Loans CNY Aggregate Financing CNY Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales YTD YoY Industrial Production YoY Industrial Production YTD YoY Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production WDA YoY Canada Foreign Minister gives speech on Nafta in Ottawa Foreign Minister Freeland testifies about Nafta ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index RBA Aug. Rate Meeting Minutes Industrial Production MoM Industrial Production YoY Capacity Utilization MoM GDP SA QoQ GDP WDA YoY GDP NSA YoY Producer & Import Prices MoM Producer & Import Prices YoY CPIH YoY CPI MoM CPI YoY CPI Core YoY PPI Input NSA MoM PPI Input NSA YoY PPI Output NSA MoM PPI Output NSA YoY PPI Output Core NSA MoM PPI Output Core NSA YoY Empire Manufacturing Retail Sales Advance MoM Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Retail Sales Control Group Existing Home Sales MoM Business Inventories National Liberation Day Westpac Leading Index MoM Claimant Count Rate Jobless Claims Change Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths

Aug-13

111.7

--

113.7

Jun F Jun F Jun 2Q P 2Q P 2Q P Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun

2.2% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% -0.1% 2.6% -0.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.0% 6.5% 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 2.4% 25.2 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% -2.1% 0.5%

---0.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 2.5% 0.4% 6.9% 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 2.5% 10 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% -0.4%

1.6% 4.9% -4.1% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9% -0.1% -0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 2.4% -0.4% 9.9% 0.0% 3.3% 0.2% 2.9% 9.8 -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -6.7% 0.3%

Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun

0.12% 2.3% -4.2k 2.1% 2.1% 4.4%

---1.8% 2.0% 4.5%

-0.14% 2.3% 5.9k 1.8% 2.0% 4.5%

11-Aug - 15-Aug 11-Aug - 15-Aug 11-Aug - 15-Aug 11-Aug - 15-Aug 11-Aug - 15-Aug 11-Aug - 18-Aug

Tue/15-Aug-17

Wed/16-Aug-17

07:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

0.4% 0.9%

1776.2b

1.2% 3.9%

0.7% 2.0% 3.2%

-0.3% 10.0%

0.3%

0.1%

-0.15% 3.5k 1.9%



Thu/17-Aug-17

Fri/18-Aug-17

15:30 16:00 16:00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:30 21:30 21:30 21:30 01:00 05:45 05:45 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 08:00 08:00 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 N/A 15:20 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 18:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 20:15 20:15 20:15 21:00 00:00 08:30 13:00 13:00 15:00 15:00 16:00 16:00 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 19:30 21:00 21:00

GB EZ EZ US US US US US US US US US NZ NZ JP JP JP JP NZ NZ AU AU AU AU AU HK AU HK GB GB GB GB EZ EZ EZ EZ EZ EZ US US US US US US US US CN DE DE EZ EZ EZ EZ CA CA CA CA CA CA US US

Employment Change 3M/3M GDP SA QoQ GDP SA YoY Housing Starts Housing Starts MoM Building Permits Building Permits MoM DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory FOMC Meeting Minutes PPI Output QoQ PPI Input QoQ Trade Balance Trade Balance Adjusted Exports YoY Imports YoY ANZ Consumer Confidence Index ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Employment Change Unemployment Rate Full Time Employment Change Part Time Employment Change Participation Rate Composite Interest Rate RBA's Ellis Gives Speech in Canberra Unemployment Rate SA Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY Trade Balance SA Trade Balance NSA CPI MoM CPI YoY CPI Core YoY ECB account of the monetary policy meeting Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Industrial Production MoM Capacity Utilization Manufacturing (SIC) Production Leading Index Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Lubbock, Texas China July Property Prices PPI MoM PPI YoY ECB Current Account SA Current Account NSA Construction Output MoM Construction Output YoY CPI NSA MoM CPI YoY Consumer Price Index CPI Core- Common YoY% CPI Core- Trim YoY% CPI Core- Median YoY% U. of Mich. Sentiment U. of Mich. Current Conditions

Jun 2Q P 2Q P Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Jul-26 2Q 2Q Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

125k 0.6% 2.2% 1155k -4.8% 1223k -4.1% -8945k 678k 22k 702k

97k 0.6% 2.1% 1220k 0.4% 1250k -2.0% -3382k --900k 0k ---¥353.6b ¥196.3b 13.4% 17.3% --20.0k 5.6% --65.0% --

175k 0.6% 2.1% 1215k 8.3% 1254k 7.4% -6451k 569k 3424k -1729k -1.4% 0.8% ¥439.9b ¥81.4b 9.7% 15.5% 125.4 -1.9% 14.0k 5.6% 62.0k -48.0k 65.0% 0.31%

Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jul Jul F Jul F

3.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% ---0.5% 1.3% 1.2%

3.1% 0.9% 3.0% 0.6% 2.9% 19.7b 21.4b 0.0% 1.3% 1.2%

Aug-12 Aug-05 Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul

240k 1953k 18.5 0.3% 76.7% 0.2% 0.3%

244k 1951k 19.5 0.4% 76.6% 0.2% 0.6%

Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug P Aug P

0.0% 2.2% ----0.1% 1.3% ----94 113.3

0.0% 2.4% 30.1b 18.3b -0.7% 2.6% -0.1% 1.0% 130.4 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% 93.4 113.4


1213k 7.4% 1257k 9.2%



Sat/19-Aug-17

21:00 21:00 21:00 21:15 00:00

US US US US US

U. of Mich. Expectations U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Dallas Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

Aug P Aug P Aug P

81.0 ---

80.5 2.6% 2.6%

Aug-18

--

949

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@her1en,@ErwinRiset)




SSIamU7 (Nikkei Sep Futures) – Last Trading Date: 11 Sep 2017

 Rebound hadapi resistance di 19820 – 19860  Perhatikan area support di 19700 – 19680 untuk potensi terjadi reversal jika gagal bertahan di atas area tersebut (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

16 Aug SSIpmU7 16 Aug SSIamU7 15 Aug SSIpmU7 15 Aug SSIamU7 14 Aug SSIpmU7 14 Aug SSIamU7 11 Aug SSIpmU7 11 Aug SSIamU7 10 Aug SSIpmU7 10 Aug SSIamU7

19750 19710 19715 19605 19515 19450 19405 19395 19715 19775

19795 19755 19820 19810 19600 19575 19485 19435 19720 19815

19680 19700 19680 19600 19510 19445 19305 19290 19350 19665

115 55 140 210 90 130 180 145 370 150

19710 19750 19730 19730 19590 19510 19415 19435 19360 19720

--19750 --19730 --19510 --19435 --19720

 40  20 UNCH  220  80  75  20  285  360  20

0.20 0.10 UNCH 1.13 0.41 0.39 0.10 1.45 1.83 0.10

17845 32778 19285 62270 17896 59838 11115 12233 29321 59841

WEEKLY

AUGUST

JULY

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

19820 (15/Aug)

19445 (14/Aug)

20100 (02/Aug)

19290 (11/Aug)

20200 (03/Jul)

19830 (07/Jul)

20290 (20/Jun)

18190 (17/Apr)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

20100

High 02/Aug/2017 (Reaction high)

20025

Reaction high (hourly)

19860

Pivot line

19820


19600

Pivot line (hourly)

19505

Reaction low (hourly)

19355


19285

Low 19/May/2017 (Reaction low)

BUY

19680

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

19580

TARGET


19815 19890



KSU7 (Kospi Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 14 Sep 2017

 Rebound dekati resistance krusial di 310.35 setelah dibuka dengan gap up di 308.75  RSI keluar dari zona oversold, dukung sinyal bullish  Short-term support di 305.50 – 304.45 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

16 Aug 15 Aug 14 Aug 11 Aug 10 Aug 09 Aug

308.75

309.15 H 306.40 305.40 310.35 312.70

307.10 O 304.45 302.30 306.40 309.65

2.05 L 1.95 3.10 3.95 3.05

307.60 I 305.95 302.85 308.60 310.00

307.60 D 305.95 302.85 308.60 310.00

 1.65 A  3.10  5.75  1.40  4.20

0.54 Y 1.02 1.86 0.45 1.34

305.20 303.90 309.00 311.70

WEEKLY

AUGUST

JULY

VOLUME 171426 179096 289680 375099 272029

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

309.15 (16/Aug)

304.45 (14/Aug)

319.45 (01/Aug)

302.30 (11/Aug)

322.75 (25/Jul)

310.35 (05/Jul)

322.75 (25/Jul)

259.25 (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

312.70

High 09/Aug/2017

311.20


310.35

High 10/Aug/2017

309.55 305.50

Reaction high (hourly) Pivot line

304.45

Low 14/Aug/2017

302.10

Pivot line

300.70

Low 23/May/2017

BUY

306.50

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

305.25

TARGET


308.65 309.70



HSIQ7 (Hang Seng August Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 Aug 2017

 Rebound berkembang, hadapi level psikologi di 27600 (daily chart)  Short-term resistance di 27774, sedangkan strong resistance di 27880 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

16 Aug 15 Aug 14 Aug 11 Aug 10 Aug 09 Aug 08 Aug

27075 27302 27084 26984 27740 27740 27600

27397 27375 27234 27174 27766 27785 27808

27036 27097 27006 26834 27214 27550 27561

361 278 228 340 552 235 247

27387 27127 27175 26842 27383 27685 27793

27386 27127 27173 26842 27385 27685 27793

WEEKLY

AUGUST

CHANGE       

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.96 0.18 1.24 1.98 1.09 0.39 0.65

114586 126107 120061 163787 160238 103131 87984

260 48 333 541 302 108 180

JULY

2017

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

27397 (16/Aug)

27006 (14/Aug)

27808 (08/Aug)

26834 (11/Aug)

27241 (31/Jul)

25110 (05/Jul)

27808 (08/Aug)

21863 (03/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

28458

High 27/May/2015

28178

High 28/May/2015

27880

Peak level

27774


27376

Pivot line (hourly)

27023


26802

Bottom (hourly)

26661

Horizontal support (hourly)

BUY

27480

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

27365

TARGET


27670 27770

ASIA STOCK INDEX Daily Outlook

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