TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R Mei 2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|1
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|2
Indeks
170
Kadin-Roy Morgan
Peralatan RT
150
Total Lainnya Sk.Cadang Otomotif Mamin Bensin Rekreasi
AC Nielsen
130
BI BPS
110
Danareksa
90
Komunikasi
70 50 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011 2012 Sumber: BI, BPS, Roy Morgan, Danareksa, AC Nielsen
Q4
Q1
Q2* 2013
Jan
Feb Maret Apr 2013
penjualan mobil penjualan eceran
penjualan sepeda motor
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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Investasi - SKDU
Indeks Tendensi Bisnis (sk.kanan)
IPI Prod.Mineral non Metal (sk.kanan)
Konsumsi Semen (sk.kanan)
PMTB:Bangunan (sk.kanan) Impor Barang Penjualan Alat Konstruksi Konstruksi Berat
PMTB Mesin Konsumsi Listrik:Industri
Impor Mesin&Peralatan (sk.kanan)
IPI Mesin
Impor Mesin kec. Transportasi (sk.kanan)
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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% yoy
2011 Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
,
Q1
,
Q4
2013 Jan
% yoy
Feb Mar
50 40
30
25
PDB Ekspor (sk.kanan)
15
20
Pertanian
10
5
Manufaktur
Total
0 -10
-5
Pertambangan
-15
-20 -30
-25
2011 % yoy
Q3
Q4
2012 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
,
Q1
,
2013 Jan
Feb
Mar
50 40
30 20 10 0
Bhn Baku
PDB Impor
Total
-10 -20
Brg Konsumsi Brg Modal
-30
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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%, yoy
%, yoy
CPI
Core
20
Administered Prices Volatile Food
14
13.03 5.57
8
4.12 2
2.72
-4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|7
80
%
Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan (SKDU)
75 70 65 60 TwTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw II Tw IIITw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw III IV
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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%,yoy 250
Horti-20 Komoditas (Pengaturan RIPH & Penutupan Impor Sementara) Horti-39 Komoditas (Pengaturan titik masuk, aspek keamanan, dll)
200
Komposit bawang
Deflasi Bawang Putih Beras Tomat Cabe Rawit Daging Ayam Telur Ayam Inflasi Bawang Merah Apel Jeruk Anggur Cabe Merah
0,18 0,06 0,03 0,03 0,02 0,01
150 100 50
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
-50
Jan-08
0 0,07 0,04 0,03 0,01 0,01
Apr-08
Komoditas
Apr-13 Kontribusi (%, mtm)
-100
Sumber: BPS
Komoditas Inflasi Rokok kretek filter Bahan Bakar Rumah Tangga Rokok kretek filter
Apr-13 %, mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm) 0,44 0,33 0,41
0,01 0,01 0,01
Sumber: BPS
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 10
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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%
200
Rp T
5.75
180 Vol DFO/N O/N(Skala (RHS) Vol DF Kanan)
5.6
160
Vol PUAB (Skala Kanan) Vol PUABO/N O/N BI Rate
140
rPUAB O/N
5.1
120
rDF O/N
100 4.6
80 60
4.1
rPUAB : 4,17% Avg Vol DF: Rp51,1 T RRT Vol PUAB : Rp11,7 T
20
5-Apr-13
25-Apr-13
16-Mar-13
4-Feb-13
24-Feb-13
15-Jan-13
6-Dec-12
26-Dec-12
16-Nov-12
7-Oct-12
27-Oct-12
17-Sep-12
8-Aug-12
28-Aug-12
19-Jul-12
9-Jun-12
29-Jun-12
30-Apr-12
20-May-12
10-Apr-12
0
21-Mar-12
3.6
40
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 12
Jan-13
11.99
6
Feb-13
13
Mar-13
5
11
Suku Bunga (%)
Credit rate Sb LPS
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
11.24
11.29
0
11.27
11.27
11.44
11.49
12
1
5,5 5,5
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Spread (Rhs) BI rate
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
5
3
2
Per Mar 2013 korelasi: rLPS dan rDep :0.89 korelasi ; BI rate dan rDep: 0.85
7
Jan-13
9
11.49
4
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 6.48%
11.45
13
13.28
Dec-12
7
13.22
%
13.58
8
13.40
14
9
%
%
15
11 Sb KMK
Sb KI
Sb KK
Deposit rate
2012
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
BI Rate
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
Penjaminan Deposito
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang)
6.26
5.97
5.66
5.42
5.35
5.39
5.39
5.42
5.40
5.49
5.42
5.58
5.49
5.43
5.51
Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK)
12.14
12.11
12.01
11.86
11.78
11.79
11.78
11.73
11.70
11.68
11.61
11.49
11.49
11.45
11.44
Kredit Investasi (KI)
11.73
11.69
11.62
11.56
11.51
11.46
11.42
11.35
11.36
11.29
11.24
11.27
11.29
11.27
11.24
Kredit Konsumsi (KK)
14.14
14.15
14.13
14.10
14.03
13.90
13.92
13.69
13.67
13.60
13.53
13.58
13.40
13.22
13.28
.
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 13
30
14
%, yoy
%, yoy
M2
M1
BI Rate (RHS)
25
12
20 10
15
14.0 13.4 8
10
5
6
Per Mar 2013
0
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
4
2012
Indikator Utama
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Juni
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Total Aset
(T Rp)
3,598.7
3,628.1
3,708.7
3,745.1
3,827.4
3,891.1
3,902.5
3,923.8
4,009.4
4,028.8
4,103.5
4,262.6
4,211.0
4,237.1
4,313.8
DPK
(T Rp)
Kredit *
(T Rp)
2,770.6 2,160.2
2,763.9 2,203.0
2,826.0 2,266.2
2,841.4 2,317.2
2,909.0 2,386.1
2,955.8 2,452.9
2,961.4 2,470.1
2,984.1 2,510.6
3,050.0 2,555.9
3,070.6 2,585.4
3,130.5 2,631.0
3,225.2 2,742.7
3,204.5 2,687.4
3,207.3 2,742.7
3,243.1 2,792.7 86.1
LDR*
(%)
78.8
79.7
80.2
81.6
82.0
83.0
83.4
84.1
83.8
84.2
84.0
84.7
83.9
85.5
NPLs Gross*
(%)
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
CAR
(%)
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.0
17.9
17.5
17.3
17.3
17.4
17.3
17.4
17.4
19.2
19.2
18.9
NIM ROA * tanpa channeling
(%) (%)
6.1 3.7
5.4 3.6
5.2 3.1
5.3 3.0
5.3 3.0
5.4 3.2
5.4 3.1
5.4 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.3 2.9
5.4 3.0
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 14
0 6
14.76 5
5 4
Per Mar 2013 3
-10 -10
Jan-13
10
5.75
Total Kredit KMK KI Total Kredit KMK KK KI
Aug-12
20 7
Oct-11
22.16
% yoy
Mar-12
25
40
% yoy
Dec-10
8
50
May-11
30
40
Jul-10
35
50
Feb-10
10
Sep-09
BI rate (RHS) 9
Apr-09
15
DPK
Jun-08
Kredit
Nov-08
%
Jan-08
40
Jan-08 Mar-08 Mei-08 Juli-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Mei-09 Juli-09 Sept-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
45
30
KK
30
25.5
20 20 24.0 23,7
23,2
10 10
18,9 19.8
00 PerMaret jan 2013 Per 13
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 15
6000 5000
11
Property
10
Agriculture Trade
9
4000
JCI
BI RATE
Misc. Industry
7
Basic Industry
8 % 77
0,10
Deviasi Apr '13 and Maret '13 Jan 2013 - Feb 2013 (mtm) April 2013 Jan-13 Maret Feb-13 2013
%
6,56
bps
65
4
Mining
5
Infrastructure
4
IHSG
2
40 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tenor
9
10
15
20
30
1,9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
% 9
Yield SBN
00,00
8
Inflation
-5
7
9,50
5,50
6 5 4
-20
3
-25
2
-30 -0,20
1
-0,15
4,51
3,2%
Monthly Changes
5
-15 -0,10
5
-1,2%
10
0,05
-10
3
3,8% 1,4%
10
-0,05
5,5
-5,5%
Finance
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
0
8,5%
8
6
1000
0,7%
Consumption
3000 2000
4,7% -9,3%
3,39
3,48
3,37
Philippine
Malaysia
0 ThaiLand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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Short Term Long Term
15.0
Medium Term Imbal hasil SBN (skala kanan)
10.0
10.0
9.0 7.3 5.2 5.8 5.3
5.0
5.7
5.5
4.1
4.1
3.7
2.8
4.4
3.5
8.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
7.0
(1.6)
(1.9)
(2.9)
(2.9)
(5.0)
(2.0) (3.9)
(2.8)
6.0
(5.6)
(5.8) (10.0)
(7.7)
(8.6)
5.0
(11.0)
Apr
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Okt
Nov
Sept
Juli
2012
Agustus
Juni
Apr
Mei
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
2011
August
June
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
4.0 Feb
(15.0)
2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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SEKTOR KEUANGAN
SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) Suku bunga deposito 1 bln Suku bunga deposito 3 bln JIBOR satu minggu 2) IHSG Indeks 3)
Apr
Mei
Juni
2012 Agt
Jul
2013 Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
3.93 5.42 6.00 3.81 4,181
4.24 5.35 5.89 3.83 3,833
4.32 5.39 5.76 4.10 3,956
4.46 5.39 5.67 4.17 4,142
4.54 5.42 5.61 4.29 4,060
4.67 5.40 5.69 4.24 4,263
4.75 5.49 5.66 4.27 4,350
4.77 5.42 5.81 4.29 4,276
4.80 5.58 5.76 4.32 4,317
4.84 5.49 5.89 4.30 4,454
4.86 5.43 5.92 4.28 4,796
4.87 5.51 5.64 4.28 4,941
5,034
BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp) Uang Primer M1(C+D) Uang Kartal (C) Uang giral (D) Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) Uang kuasi (T) Uang kuasi (Rupiah) Deposito Tabungan Total Deposito (Valas) Simpanan Giro Valuta Asing Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S)
596,592 720,924 290,861 430,064 2,927,259 2,190,885 1,887,124 1,020,792 866,332 148,486 155,275 15,450
604,979 749,450 294,768 454,682 2,992,057 2,227,527 1,900,824 1,027,151 873,673 159,186 167,516 15,081
627,359 779,416 314,670 464,746 3,050,355 2,254,329 1,915,625 1,016,060 899,565 164,762 173,942 16,610
634,993 771,792 315,375 456,417 3,054,534 2,269,809 1,926,046 1,017,021 909,025 170,722 173,041 12,932
657,955 772,429 327,059 445,370 3,089,011 2,304,474 1,960,339 1,030,262 930,077 171,517 172,617 12,108
638,869 795,518 325,566 469,952 3,125,533 2,318,559 1,968,062 1,030,830 937,232 180,380 170,117 11,457
648,106 774,983 326,119 448,864 3,161,726 2,376,102 2,009,812 1,060,357 949,456 187,859 178,430 10,640
647,979 801,403 327,069 474,334 3,205,129 2,393,320 2,022,975 1,058,871 964,105 190,178 180,166 10,406
704,843 841,721 361,967 479,755 3,304,645 2,452,503 2,092,654 1,066,527 1,026,127 177,508 182,341 10,420
664,007 787,916 326,885 461,031 3,265,869 2,467,124 2,095,427 1,079,275 1,016,152 173,616 198,081 10,829
655,486 786,606 321,541 465,065 3,277,426 2,479,959 2,105,861 1,098,083 1,007,778 169,755 204,343 10,861
664,935 807,571 328,684 478,886 3,277,426 2,479,959 2,123,895 1,123,533 1,000,362 182,383 190,841 12,132
-
Tagihan kepada Sektor Lainnya Tagihan pada Sektor Swasta
2,519,946 2,230,960
2,586,786 2,289,504
2,653,871 2,361,812
2,668,447 2,378,914
2,696,876 2,406,188
2,758,170 2,471,071
2,791,363 2,504,939
2,833,571 2,504,347
2,920,934 2,584,819
2,897,711 2,556,620
2,921,209 2,571,080
2,969,119 2,615,049
-
0.21 4.50
0.07 4.45
0.62 4.53
0.70 4.56
0.95 4.58
0.01 4.31
0.16 4.61
0.07 4.32
0.54 4.30
1.03 4.57
0.75 5.31
0.63 5.90
-0.10 5.57
9,190 12,698 12,381
9,565 13,315 13,363
9,480 12,420 12,918
9,485 13,168 13,282
9,560 11,238 10,366
9,588 13,011 11,733
9,615 12,636 13,053
9,605 13,202 12,479
9,670 12,313 11,715
9,698 12,386 11,608
9,667 11,897 11,619
9,719 -
9,722 -
2) 2)
HARGA Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) SEKTOR EKSTERNAL Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) INDIKATOR KUARTALAN Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) Konsumsi Investasi (PMTB) Perubahan Stok Ekspor Impor 1) minggu terakhir
Tw.II
2012 Tw.III
Tw.IV
2013 Tw.I
6.4 5.6 12.5 108.7 2.6 11.3
6.2 4.5 9.8 -9.5 -2.6 -0.2
6.1 3.9 7.3 94.6 0.5 6.8
6.0 4.7 5.9 10.2 3.4 -0.4
2) rata-rata tertimbang 3) penutupan pada akhir periode 4) closed file Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
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