Stephan Desplancke, Vice President Benelux
Inhoud
•
Wie is BlackRock ?
•
Zitten we binnen 40 jaar zonder olie ?
•
Hoe beleggen in energie ?
2
Wie is BlackRock ? Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Global Markets and Investment Banking
Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM)
Global Private Client Group
1 oktober 2006
30 juni 2008
MLIM $581 miljard AUM
Obligaties 24% Alternatieve Beleggingen 3%
Aandelen 53%
Alter. Belegg. 5%
Obligaties 66%
Obligaties 38%
+
Liq./ Overig 25%
Liquiditeiten 20%
Aandelen 9%
3
BlackRock $1.430 miljard AUM
BlackRock $464 miljard AUM
Aandelen 20%
Overige 13%
Liquiditeit en 26%
BlackRock Corporate Governance BlackRock, Inc. werd opgericht in 1988 Aandeelhouderstructuur
49% Bank of America 34% The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. 17% Werknemers & het publiek
Genoteerd op de NYSE sinds 1 oktober 1999
BLK
Samenstelling Raad van Bestuur
16 Bestuurders: 3 BlackRock, 2 Bank of America, 2 PNC, 9 onafhank.
Bestuurders
Laurence Fink, Mathis Cabiallavetta*, Dennis Dammerman*, Bill Demchak, Robert Doll, Kenneth Dunn*, Gregory Fleming, Murry Gerber*, James Grosfeld*, Robert Kapito, David Komansky*, Sir Deryck Maughan*, Thomas O’Brien*, Linda Gosden Robinson*, James Rohr, John A. Thain
Voorzitter & CEO
Laurence Fink
President
Rob Kapito
4
*onafhankelijk
Wereldwijd actief, lokaal aanwezig
•Ruim 5.700 werknemers in 19 landen, inclusief > 750 beleggingsexperten •Hoofdkwartier in NY en beleggingskantoren in de VS, VK, Europa, Azië en Australië •Meer dan 55 marketing & client service kantoren plus regionale distributeurs •Klanten in meer dan 60 landen
Aandelen: •Boston •Edinburgh •Hong Kong •London •Melbourne •New York •Philadelphia •Princeton •Tokyo
5
Obligaties: •Edinburgh •Eindhoven •London •New York •Princeton •Sydney •Tokyo
Vastgoed: Cash Management: •Boston •London •Frankfurt •New York •Hong Kong •Princeton •London •Wilmington •Melbourne •New York •Newport Beach •Northern New Jersey •Pittsburgh •San Francisco •Tokyo
Alternatives: •Boston •Durham •Hong Kong •London •New York •Princeton •Seattle
MAPS: •Boston •Eindhoven •London •New York •Tokyo •Zurich
Beleggingsoplossingen op maat
Totale AUM: $1.428 miljard
Obligaties & Liquiditeiten Global / Regional $91 Billion
US Core $129 Billion
Duration Target $164 Billion
Global Aggregate Global Credit Euro Aggregate Euro Credit Sterling Yen
Australian Dollar Canadian Liability-Driven Inflation-Linked Absolute Return
Core PLUS Core Bond Core Enhanced Index Liability-Driven LIBOR Enhanced Income
Aandelen & Gemengd Global $14 Billion
Regional $74 Billion
US Equity $66 Billion Short Intermediate Long
Sector-Specific $58 Billion
Index $68 Billion
Specialty Sectors $125 Billion
Liquidity $345 Billion
Corporates High Yield Bank Loan Preferred Stable Value Emerging Markets
Mortgage-Backed CMBS ABS Inflation-linked Municipals Structured Products
Prime Government Securities Lending
Municipal International
Asset Allocation / Balanced $146 billion
Global Flexible Small Cap
Quantitative Fundamental
EAFE UK Europe
Asia Pacific Latin America Emerging Markets
Small Mid/SMID Large
Core Value Growth
All Cap Energy Small Cap Energy Natural Resources
Health SciencesQuantitative Global SciencesFundamental & Tech
Index Enhanced Index Equity Structured/Derivatives Global US
Japan UK
Alternatieve Beleggingen & Vastgoed Private Equity & Debt: Private Equity FoF, BlackRock Kelso Capital Hedge Fund of Funds: Broadly Diversified Core, Focus, Custom Real Estate Equity: Core, Core/Enhanced Core, Value-Added, UK Property, European Property, Australian Property
Multi-Asset Class
6
Real Estate Debt: Anthracite Capital (REIT), Carbon Capital I, II, and III, PNMAC Single-Strategy Hedge Funds: Fixed Income, Distressed, Sector-Specific Equity, Region-Specific Equity
Portable Alpha
Prepared Portfolios
Strategic Advice Service
Global Tactical & Strategic Asset Allocation
Relative & Target Return
Fiduciary / CIO Outsourcing
Capital Markets: Opportunistic Credit, Opportunistic Mortgage, Business Development Corporation, Structured Products
Liability-Driven Investing
Fund of Alternatives
Commodities: Active Long-Only and Hedged, Passive/Futures-Based
As of 30 June 2008
Inhoud
•
Wie is BlackRock ?
•
Zitten we binnen 40 jaar zonder olie ?
•
Hoe beleggen in energie ?
7
Groeilanden en vooral China, Indië, .... spelen een cruciale rol
8
De Grondstoffen Super Cyclus Er zijn slechts 6 super cycli geweest in de laatste 250 jaar!
Commodity Index USD Prijs
Groei van China & Indië
Olie schokken in de jaren 70 en 80 Post W02 Europese Industriële Revolutie
1750
9
Bron: internal
1800
Industrialisatie van de VS Post WO1
1850
1900
1950
2000
Azië is de motor voor de stijgende vraag naar grondstoffen
60%
+ aandeel van China stijgt
40%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2011E
20%
0
-20%
Aluminium
Koper
-40%
- aandeel van de VS daalt -60%
10
Bron: Rio Tinto, February 2008
Ijzererts
Olie
Infrastructuuruitgaven blijven stijgen 800
Prognose infrastructuuruitgaven voor volgende 3 jaar (miljard $)
Anglo American schat dat de groeilanden USD 21.000 miljard zullen spenderen aan infrastructuur de volgende 10 jaar, waarvan USD 9.000 miljard voor China
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 China
Golfstaten
Rusland
ML Prognose 2007
11
Bron: Merrill Lynch June 2008, Xstrata May 2008
Indië ML Prognose 2008
Brazilië
Mexico
Samenstelling van het Chinese BBP 25
RMB Trillions
20
Samenstelling van netto export Andere 9%
Europa 24%
VS 21%
15 Azië 46%
10
5
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F
Consumptie 12
Bron : BHP Billiton, Februari 2008
Investeringen
Voorraden
Netto export
Energie
13
De energiemarkt is aan het veranderen
1. SEIZOENSGEBONDEN
2. CYCLISCH
3. STRUCTUREEL
rijseizoen
economische groei
Niet-OECD vraag
vraag naar afkoeling
beleggingen
verouderde olievelden
orkanen
financieel
toegang tot reserves
vraag naar verwarming
14
omgeving
permanente verstrakking van de energiemarkt
Vooruitzichten voor de wereldwijde energieconsumptie
15
Industrialisatie China & Indië: nog maar het begin … •China vandaag zit op het niveau van de VS in 1909 in termen van olieconsumptie per inwoner •China & Indië alleen hebben 160 miljoen vaten per dag nodig, indien op het niveau van de VS •Dit is bijna 2x het huidige wereldolieaanbod, dat 149 jaar ontwikkelingstijd in beslag nam 35
Per Inwoner (vaten per jaar)
30 25 20
VS
15
Japan
10
Zuid-Korea China
5
Indië 0 1900
16
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Bron: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Respective Census Bureaus, Tristone Research August 2008.
1970
1980
1990
2000
China = VS in 1909
17
Bron: Google. Model C Ford, 1904 and Wright Flyer 1, 1903
Productiecapaciteit OPEC daalt
18
Niet-OPEC productiegroei daalt … maar valt stil
Russische olieproductie is cruciaal …
Russische groei in productie (% YoY)
Wereldwijde olieproductie 2001 - 2007 15% 10% Rusland 41%
5% Rest vd wereld 7%
-10% -15%
70 2001 Bron: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008.
19
2007
-20% Bron: IEA/BlackRock, 12th August 2008 Report
2008E
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
-5%
75
1996
OPEC 52%
1994
0% 1992
miljoen vaten / dag
80
49,5
49,6
49,4
49
48,8
2012
48,9
49,25
47,8
48 46,8
47 45,7
46 45
48,6
2005
Miljoen vaten per dag
49
48,7
2004
50
2011
Aanbod niet-OPEC daalt
44,9
44 43
Mb/d
20
Bron: Credit Suisse (base case, August 2008)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2003
2002
2001
2000
42
Olievoorraden in de OECD Abnormaal lage voorraadopbouw in Q2
Olievoorraden uitgedrukt in miljoenen vaten
Laagste absolute groei van de OECD voorraden in het 2de kwartaal 2008 sinds 25 jaar 21
Bron: International Energy Agency (IEA) August 12th 2008 Monthly Oil Market Report
Mexicaanse olieproductie droogt op Cantarell, ‘s werelds op één na grootste olieveld produceert ~25% minder per jaar. Dalende Mexicaanse Olieproductie 4,0
miljoen vaten/dag
3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,8 jan/04
22
jan/05
Bron: International Energy Agency, 12th August 2008 (Crude oil and NGLs)
jan/06
jan/07
jan/08
Wereldwijde vraag naar olie stijgt
23
Veranderingen in vraag en aanbod
2,0m bbl
Groei niet-OPEC aanbod Wereldwijde groei vraag
1,8m bbl 1,5m bbl 1,3m bbl 1,0m bbl 0,8m bbl 0,5m bbl
Global Demand Growth
0,3m bbl 0,0m bbl Voorspelling 2007 (Dec 2006)
24
2007
Bron: Blackrock/IEA 13th December 2006, 13th December 2007 Adjusted for Angola joining OPEC. March 2008.
Voorspelling 2009 (Sept 08)
OECD oliereserves Reserve-Productie Ratio 80 70 60 50 Jaren
40 30 20 10 0 Totaal
25
Bron: BP, Citigroup Investment Research
OECD
OPEC
NON-OPEC
Rusland
Inhoud
•
Wie is BlackRock ?
•
Zitten we binnen 40 jaar zonder olie ?
•
Hoe beleggen in energie ?
26
Beleggen in energie
Future-based exposure Futures contracten Beleggingsfondsen ETF’s gelinkt aan oliefutures
Aandelenexposure Energiebedrijven Beleggingsfondsen ETF’s gelinkt aan grondstoffenindexen en -aandelen 27
Aandelen: hefboom voor bewegingen in de grondstoffenprijzen
100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
BGF World Gold Gold Price
28
Bron: Internal. US$ monthly performance as at 12th February 2008
BGF World Mining MG Base Metals Index
2008
200
2007
300
2006
400
2005
500
2004
600
Percent
Percent
700
450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 2003
800
Percent
900
1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
BGF World Energy WTI Oil Price
Energiesector in 2008: 14% van S&P500 & 28% van de winsten Marktkapitalisatie
Telecoms; Utilities; 4% 3%
Winsten
Energy; 14%
Utilities; 6% Telecoms;
Info Materials; 4%
Technology;
Energy; 28%
5% Info Technology;
17%
10%
Industrials; 11%
Financials; 9% Materials;
Financials; Disc; 8%
Health Care; 13%
29
8%
Consumer
15%
Consumer Staples; 11%
Bron: Factset & Datastream, BlackRock Information Research, as at 31st July 2008
Health Care; 12% Consumer Staples; 8%
Industrials; Consumer Disc; 6%
10%
Correctie in energie aandelen: dèjà vu ?
2.5
2.3
Hoogste
Laagste
% Change
Mei 98
Aug 98
-22%
Nov 99
Feb 00
-17%
Mei 01
Sep 01
-22%
Apr 02
Sep 02
-24%
Ma 05
Mei 05
-13%
Mei 06
Jun 06
-14%
Jul 07
Aug 07
-15%
Jan 08
Feb 08
-16%
Mei 08
Aug 08
-22%
Log Chart of MSCI World Energy Index
2.1
1.9 1998
30
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
31 Bron: Datastream. Weekly data as at 25th August 2008.
Crude Oil (US$ WTI) MSCI World Energy Index (US$)
aug 2008
jul 2008
jun 2008
mei 2008
apr 2008
mrt 2008
feb 2008
jan 2008
dec 2007
nov 2007
okt 2007
sep 2007
aug 2007
jul 2007
jun 2007
mei 2007
apr 2007
mrt 2007
feb 2007
jan 2007
Rebased to 100
Olieprijs vs energie aandelen
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Gemiddelde olieprijs vs. geïndexeerde upstream kapitaalkost
Olieprijs is meer gestegen dan de toename in kostinflatie, wat leidt tot margevermeerdering 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Gemid. Jaarlijkse Olieprijs WTI in USD 32
Bron: BlackRock/DataStream/CERA May 14th 2008.
2005
2006
2007
HIS/CERA Upstream Capital Cost Index
2008
Overzicht van de olie- en gassector OIL
EXPLORATION & APPRAISAL
DEVELOPMENT
GAS
DEVELOPMENT
DISCOVERY
UPSTREAM PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
MIDSTREAM
MIDSTREAM
LNG Tanker
LNG Tanker
Gas Pipeline
Gas Pipeline
GAS & POWER
DOWN STREAM GTL Plant Marketing 33
Refinery
LNG Terminal
Local Gas Utility
Voorbeelden
Geïntegreerde oliemaatschappijen BP, Petrobras, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell
Uitrusting & Diensten Schlumberger Halliburton
Drilling & Exploratie Transocean Statoilhydro
Raffinage & Marketing Valero Energy Marathon Oil Sasol 34
Beleggen in grondstoffen bij BlackRock
Grondstoffenfondsen BGF World Mining Fund BGF World Gold Fund BGF World Energy Fund BGF New Energy Fund
The following notes should be read in conjunction with the attached document: 1.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 33 King William Street, London, EC4R 9AS. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. Issued in Switzerland by the representative office, BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (London), Zurich Branch, Dreikönigstrasse 31a, 8002 Zurich, from where the Company's Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Articles of Association, Annual Report and Interim Report are available free of charge. Paying Agent in Switzerland is HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) S.A., Paradeplatz 5, CH-8022 Zurich, Switzerland.
2.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and bases of taxation may change from time to time.
3.
Certain MLIIF funds invest in emerging markets which are typically those of poorer or less developed countries. The prospects for economic growth in a number of these markets are considerable and equity returns have the potential to exceed those in mature markets as growth is achieved. However, there are risks to the fund from political, economic and market factors in emerging markets which are of particular significance. These include the possibility of various forms of punitive or confiscatory government intervention, reduced levels of regulation, higher brokerage and transaction commissions, less reliable settlement and custody practices, loss of registration of securities, lower market liquidity, higher market volatility (causing substantial increase in price and currency risks) and less reliable financial reporting.
4.
The MLIIF World Gold Fund and MLIIF World Mining Fund do not hold physical gold or other metals. Investors in these Funds should be aware of the above-average volatility inherent in mining shares and the low correlation between this sector and equity markets as a whole. Shares in smaller companies can be more volatile and less liquid than those of larger companies. When a portfolio of high yielding bonds is held, there is an increased risk of capital erosion through default or if the redemption yield is below the income yield. Economic conditions and interest rate levels may impact significantly the values of high yield bonds. Where a Fund has a particularly concentrated portfolio and a particular investment declines or is otherwise adversely affected, it may have a more pronounced effect than if the Fund held a larger number of investments.
5.
The above warnings are explained in greater detail in the fund specific risks in the current Simplified Prospectus and you should read them before investing. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock Group funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. Subject to the express requirements of any client specific investment management agreement or relating to the management of a fund, we will not provide notice of any changes to our personnel, structure, policies, process, objectives or, without limitation, any other matter contained in this document.
6.
Merrill Lynch International Investment Funds (“MLIIF”) is a Luxembourg-based SICAV which is available for sale in certain jurisdictions only. It is recognised under Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. MLIIF is not available for sale in the U.S. or to U.S. persons. Product information concerning MLIIF should not be published in the U.S. BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is the UK distributor of MLIIF. All decisions to subscribe for shares in MLIIF must be made on the basis of the information contained in the current MLIIF prospectus, the most recent financial reports and the Simplified Prospectus which are available on our website. A limited range of MLIIF sub-funds have a distributor status A sterling share class that seeks to comply with UK Distributor status requirements. Most of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system, and the compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, will not be available.
7.
The Merrill Lynch name and logo are trade marks of, and used under licence from, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
8.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
9.
This document is for distribution to Intermediate Customers only (as defined by the FSA rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
10. Unless otherwise specified, all information contained in this document is current as at the date on the front page of this presentation.
36
