Sector Update : Metal Mining June 2009
PT Mega Capital Indonesia Your Trusted Professional
Nikel dan Kegunaannya • Nikel digunakan dalam berbagai aplikasi komersial dan industri, terutama untuk pembentukan logam campuran terutama baja tidak berkarat (stainless steel). • 70% produksi nikel digunakan untuk produksi stainless steel, sisanya untuk berbagai penggunaan industri seperti baterai, elektronika, aplikasi pesawat terbang dan turbin pembangkit listrik bertenaga gas. • Pertumbuhan industri nikel sangat erat dengan pertumbuhan industri stainless steel dan sektor lainnya di atas Æ korelasi tinggi dengan produksi industri. • Sejak tahun 2006‐2007, produksi industri global tumbuh pesat terutama di China Æ produksi dan konsumsi nikel dunia tidak seimbang Æ harga naik mencapai USD 54.000/ton pada 2007. Your Trusted Professional
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Situasi Pasar Nikel Dunia • Krisis ekonomi global Æ permintaan stainless steel menurun Æ harga nikel kembali ke level sebelum tahun 2006. • Penurunan permintaan nikel Æ stok nikel LME menumpuk, meskipun telah banyak perusahaan mengurangi produksi nikelnya. • Produksi dan harga stainless steel masih berada pada level rendah. China meningkatkan produksi, Eropa & Jepang turun. • Tahun 2009 masih penuh dengan tantangan. Your Trusted Professional
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Harga vs stok nikel LME 60,000
130,000
55,000
120,000
50,000
110,000 100,000
45,000
90,000 80,000
35,000
70,000 30,000 60,000 25,000
Ton
USD/Ton
40,000
50,000
20,000
40,000
15,000
30,000
10,000
20,000
5,000
10,000
-
-
9 -0 pr 9 A -0 n Ja -08 ct O 08 lJu -08 pr A -08 n Ja -07 ct O 07 lJu -07 pr A -07 n Ja -06 ct O 06 lJu -06 pr 6 A -0 n Ja -05 ct O 05 lJu -05 pr 5 A -0 n Ja -04 ct O 04 lJu -04 pr A 04 nJa t-03 c O 03 lJu -03 pr A -03 n Ja -02 ct O 02 lJu -02 pr A -02 n Ja -01 ct O 01 lJu -01 pr A -01 n Ja Nickel Stocks (RHS)
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Nickel Price (LHS)
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Produksi Stainless Steel Dunia
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Kegunaan dan manfaat timah • • • • • • • • • •
Solder Pabrik kimia Baju anti api Pembuatan stabiliser pvc, pestisida dan pengawet kayu Pelat timah untuk kemasan kaleng Campuran tambal gigi Lapisan timah pada stik golf Tutup botol anggur Perlengkapan rumah tangga sehari‐hari Lapisan pada kawat dan tembaga
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Industri dan Pasar Timah Dunia • Keharusan penggunaan timah bebas timbal untuk solder (50%), tinplate (19%) dan tin chemical (12%) Æ kebutuhan timah meningkat. • Produsen timah dunia : China (36%), Indonesia (28%) dan Peru (12%). Sisanya negara‐negara di Amerika Selatan, Eropa Timur, Afrika dan Australia. • Produksi China untuk konsumsi domestik Æ Indonesia eksportir terbesar Æ pengaruhi harga. • Penertiban dan pengetatan ekspor timah RI tahun 2007 Æ pasokan timah dunia turun dan harga naik hingga USD 25.000/ton pada Mei 2008. • Krisis ekonomi global Oktober 2008 Æ permintaan dan harga timah turun tajam. Permintaan timah tahun 2009 diperkirakan turun 20‐25% dari tahun 2008 yang sebesar 360.000 ton. Your Trusted Professional
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Harga vs stok timah LME 45,000
28,000 26,000
40,000
24,000 22,000
35,000
20,000
USD/Ton
16,000
25,000
14,000
Ton
30,000
18,000
20,000
12,000 10,000
15,000
8,000 10,000
6,000 4,000
5,000
2,000 -
-
9 -0 pr A 09 nJa -08 ct O 08 lJu -08 pr A -08 n Ja -07 ct O 07 lJu -07 pr A -07 n Ja -06 ct O 06 lJu -06 pr A -06 n Ja -05 ct O 05 lJu -05 pr A -05 n Ja -04 ct O 04 lJu -04 pr A -04 n Ja -03 ct O 03 lJu -03 pr A -03 n Ja -02 ct O 02 lJu -02 pr A 02 nJa -01 ct O 01 lJu -01 pr A -01 n Ja Tin Stocks (RHS)
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Tin Price (LHS)
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Financial Highlights ANTM's Profit & Loss
INCO's Profit&Loss
14000
2500 USD Thousands
IDR Billions
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000
2000 1500 1000 500 0
2000
2003
0 2004
2005 Sales
2006 Gross Profit
2007
2008
Opr. Profit
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Q1 2009
Sales
Net Incom e
Opr Profit
Q1 2009
Net Incom e
TINS's Profit & Loss 10,000
IDR Billions
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2004
2005 Sales
2006
Gross Profit
2007 Opr. Profit
2008
Q1 2009
Net Incom e
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Balance Sheet ANTM's Balance Sheet
INCO's Balance Sheet 2500 USD Thousands
14000
IDR Billions
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000
2000 1500 1000 500
2000
0
0
2003 2004
2005
2006 Assets
2007 Liabilities
2008
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2009
Assets
Equity
Liabilities
Equity
TIN's Balance Sheet 7, 0 0 0
IDR Billions
6 ,0 0 0 5, 0 0 0 4 ,0 0 0 3 ,0 0 0 2 ,0 0 0 1, 0 0 0 -
2004
2005
2006 Assets
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2007
Liabilities
2008
Q1 2009
Equity
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Kinerja Triwulan I 2009 Aneka Tambang Tbk, PT 1Q 2009 Income Statement (in billion IDR) 1Q 2009 Revenue 2,641.61 COGS 2,479.54 Gross Profit 162.07 Operating Expenses 107.36 Operating Profit 54.71 Other ‐net 52.17 Pre‐tax Profit 106.88 Tax expense 18.39 Minority Interest 1.39 Net Profit 89.88
1Q 2008 2,091.78 1,020.98 1,070.80 133.93 936.87 10.49 947.35 272.06 0.10 675.39
YoY 26.29% 142.86% ‐84.86% ‐19.84% ‐94.16% 397.51% ‐88.72% ‐93.24% 1317.35% ‐86.69%
Inco Tbk, PT 1Q 2009 Income Statement (in million USD) 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 Revenue 121.40 380.00 COGS 114.64 177.61 Gross Profit 6.75 202.39 Operating Expenses 1.56 9.50 Operating Profit 5.20 192.89 Other ‐net 18.80 6.72 Pre‐tax Profit 23.99 199.61 Tax expense 6.82 60.01 Net Profit 17.18 139.60
Timah Tbk, PT 1Q 2009 Income Statement (in billion IDR) 1Q 2009 Revenue 1,587.51 COGS 1,462.31 Gross Profit 125.20 Operating Expenses 106.53 Operating Profit 18.67 Other ‐net 17.87 Pre‐tax Profit 36.54 Tax expense 22.09 Minority Interest (0.01) Net Profit 14.44
1Q 2008 1,811.95 945.86 866.10 99.44 766.66 (39.28) 727.38 240.08 (0.01) 487.29
YoY ‐68.05% ‐35.45% ‐96.66% ‐83.60% ‐97.31% 179.62% ‐87.98% ‐88.64% ‐87.70%
YoY ‐12.39% 54.60% ‐85.54% 7.13% ‐97.57% ‐145.49% ‐94.98% ‐90.80% 85.71% ‐97.04%
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Balance Sheet Q1 2009 Aneka Tambang Tbk, PT 1Q 2009 Balance Sheet (in billion IDR) 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 Total Assets 10,316.82 12,004.37 Total Liabilities 2,117.77 2,561.54 Total Equity 8,151.45 9,441.60 Cash & Equivalents 3,291.34 4,568.27
YoY ‐14.06% ‐17.32% ‐13.66% ‐27.95%
Inco Tbk, PT 1Q 2009 Balance Sheet (in million USD) 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 Total Assets 1,838.92 1,842.58 Total Liabilities 300.86 321.70 Total Equity 1,538.06 1,520.88 Cash & Equivalents 162.43 166.11
Timah Tbk, PT 1Q 2009 Balance Sheet (in billion IDR) 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 Total Assets 5,723.17 5,181.18 Total Liabilities 1,879.24 1,337.22 Total Equity 3,843.65 3,843.68 Cash & Equivalents 735.45 1,349.73
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YoY ‐0.20% ‐6.48% 1.13% ‐2.21%
YoY 10.46% 40.53% 0.00% ‐45.51% 12
Revenue Breakdown Q1 2009 ANTM 14000 12000
IDR Billions
Feronickel Nickel ore 5.2% 9.8%
ANTM's Sales Breakdown By Segment
Bauxite ore Other m etal Silver 0.0% 0.5% Iron sand 4.2% Services 0.0% 0.0%
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2003
2004
2005
Gold 80.1%
2006
Nickel
Gold
2007
2008
Q1 09
Others
TINS
Batubara 8.7% Jasa Konstruksi dll 0.4%
Tim ah 90.9%
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Margins INCO
ANTM 80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20% 10%
10%
0%
0% 2004
2005
2006 GPM
2007 OPM
2008
2003
Q1 2009
2004
2005 GPM
NPM
2006 OPM
2007
2008
Q1 2009
NPM
TINS 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2004
2005
2006 GPM
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2007 OPM
2008
Q1 2009
NPM
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Debt Equity Ratio 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
ANTM
2008
INCO
Q1 2009
TINS
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60,000
12000
50,000
10000
40,000
8000
30,000
6000
20,000
4000
10,000
2000
Nickel Price
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ANTM
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-01
Jan-02
0 Jan-01
-
IDR/share
USD/ton
ANTM vs INCO vs Nickel Price
INCO
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30,000
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 -
USD/Ton
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Tin Price
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
-
IDR/Share
TINS vs Tin Price
TINS
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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) Investment Opportunity: • Pulihnya ekonomi picu kenaikan harga komoditas dan volume penjualan • Diversifikasi produk • Jumlah kas cukup banyak Investment Risk: • Pemulihan ekonomi tertundaÆ harga nikel kembali melemah Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp 2450 (ass: ASP nikel $14.000/ton, ASP emas $900/oz) EPS 09E : Rp 64 PER 09E: 37,8X PBV 09E: 2,8X Your Trusted Professional
Key Ratio EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) DAR (x)
2007A 536.67 917.35 4.57 2.67 61.04% 56.44% 42.63% 42.50% 58.50% 0.38 0.27
2008A 143.48 845.33 17.08 2.90 27.64% 15.16% 14.26% 13.35% 16.97% 0.26 0.21
2009E 2010F 2011F 64.82 94.38 134.19 875.13 918.88 973.16 37.80 25.96 18.26 2.80 2.67 2.52 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 10.94% 15.94% 20.94% 9.04% 12.54% 16.04% 6.05% 8.67% 12.00% 7.41% 10.27% 13.79% 0.22 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.16 0.13
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International Nickel Indonesia (INCO) Investment Opportunity: • Pulihnya ekonomi picu kenaikan harga komoditas dan volume penjualan • PLTA ‐> efisiensi biaya Investment Risk: • Pemulihan ekonomi tertunda harga nikel kembali melemah • PLTA ‐> produksi menurun Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp 3650 (ass: ASP nikel $11.500/ton) EPS 09E : $ 0,01 PER 09E: 42,29X PBV 09E: 2,37X
Key Ratio EPS (USD) BV (USD) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) DAR (x)
2007A 0.12 0.14 3.09 2.62 70.64% 68.29% 50.43% 62.16% 84.60% 0.36 0.27
2008A 0.04 0.15 10.09 2.38 38.38% 36.45% 27.38% 19.50% 23.63% 0.21 0.17
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2009E 0.01 0.15 42.29 2.37 22.84% 18.23% 12.59% 4.71% 5.61% 0.19 0.16
2010F 0.01 0.15 25.96 2.37 30.48% 26.81% 17.87% 7.73% 9.11% 0.18 0.15
2011F 0.02 0.15 15.18 2.36 42.04% 39.22% 26.67% 13.43% 15.57% 0.16 0.14
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PT Timah Tbk (TINS) Investment Opportunity: • Pulihnya ekonomi picu kenaikan harga komoditas dan volume penjualan • Produsen timah terbesar no.2 di dunia • Eksportir timah terbesar di dunia Investment Risk: • Pemulihan ekonomi tertundaÆ harga timah kembali melemah Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp 1880 (ass: ASP timah $14.000/ton) EPS 09E : Rp 105 PER 09E: 17,93 X PBV 09E: 2,39 X Your Trusted Professional
Key Ratio EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) DAR (x)
2007A 354.58 667.40 5.30 2.81 37.18% 31.99% 20.89% 35.46% 53.13% 0.50 0.33
2008A 266.71 759.10 7.04 2.47 30.03% 22.87% 14.83% 23.20% 35.13% 0.51 0.34
2009E 2010F 2011F 104.73 125.47 161.14 784.54 815.91 856.20 17.93 14.97 11.65 2.39 2.30 2.19 23.64% 24.25% 26.28% 16.13% 17.32% 19.53% 9.37% 10.26% 11.89% 8.77% 10.07% 12.32% 13.35% 15.38% 18.82% 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.34 0.35 0.35
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Thank You & Good Luck DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Indonesia.
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