Sector Update : COAL MINING April 2009
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TYPES OF COAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Antrasit : adalah kelas batu bara tertinggi, dengan warna hitam berkilauan (luster) metalik, mengandung antara 86% ‐ 98% unsur karbon (C) dengan kadar air kurang dari 8%. Bituminus : mengandung 68 ‐ 86% unsur karbon (C) dan berkadar air 8‐10% dari beratnya. Kelas batu bara yang paling banyak ditambang di Australia. Sub‐bituminus : mengandung sedikit karbon dan banyak air, dan oleh karenanya menjadi sumber panas yang kurang efisien dibandingkan dengan bituminus. Lignit : atau batu bara coklat adalah batu bara yang sangat lunak yang mengandung air 35‐75% dari beratnya. Gambut : berpori dan memiliki kadar air di atas 75% serta nilai kalori yang paling rendah.
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TYPES OF COAL 1. Batubara Termal : atau batubara steaming, digunakan dalam proses pembakaran untuk menghasilkan uap untuk listrik dan panas. 2. Batubara cooking : atau batubara metalurgis, digunakan dalam produksi besi dan baja.
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Sample of COAL
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Thermal Coal – Supply vs Demand 800 700
Million Ton
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Supply
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
Dem and
Source: Barlow Jonker
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Coal Price vs Oil Price
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Global Market Outlook
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Global Market Outlook
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Global Market Outlook
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Coal Price
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Domestic Market Outlook
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Coal Demand For Power Generator (million ton)
83.45
42.8 34.48
2008
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2009
2010
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Domestic Coal Resources (Billion Ton) 104,756 93,402
60,513
61,365
2004
2005
65,400
2006
2007
2008
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Domestic Coal Reserves (Billion Ton)
20,960 18,712
9,480 7,006
6,760
2004
2005
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2006
2007
2008
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Type Of Coal in Indonesia
Bitum inous 13.9%
Antrasit 0.5%
Lignit 58.7% Subbitum inous 26.9%
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Indonesia Coal Reserves Sum atera 13%
Others 4%
Kalim antan 83%
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Indonesia Market Share • Menurut World Coal Institute, sejak tahun 2004 Indonesia menjadi eksportir batubara terbesar kedua setelah Australia. • Kontribusi ekspor batubara Indonesia sebesar 26% terhadap total ekspor pada 2007. • Indonesia merupakan eksportir batubara termal terbesar di dunia pada tahun 2007.
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Top 10 Coal Producers PT Kaltim Prima Coal PT Adaro Indonesia PT Kideco Jaya Agung PT Arutmin Indonesia PT Berau Coal PT Indominco Mandiri PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PT Bayan Resources PT Trubaindo Coal Mining PT Bahari Cakraw ala Sebuku 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Million Ton
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Market Share as of 2007
BYAN 2.4%
Lainnya 19.3%
BUMI 30.3%
PTBA 4.8% Indom inco 5.8% Berau Coal 6.6%
Kideco 10.6%
ADRO 20.2%
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PT TAMBANG BATUBARA BUKIT ASAM TBK (PTBA)
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Mines & Ports
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Shareholders
Publik 34.98%
Pemerintah RI 65.02%
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PTBA’s Resources Bitum inous 2% Sub Bitum inous 42%
Low Rank 56%
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Production & Sales Volume (million tons)
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Sales Breakdown
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Average Selling Price
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Financial Performance
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Financial Ratio
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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA FY 2008 Result (IDR Billions) FY 2008
FY 2007
Sales COGS Gross Profit Operating Expenses Operating Income Other Income Profit Before Tax Income Tax Expense Minority Interest Net Income EPS
7,216.23 (3,686.14) 3,530.09 (1,036.15) 2,493.94 56.69 2,551.67 (837.06) (6.85) 1,707.77 741.00
4,123.86 (2,501.03) 1,622.83 (725.84) 896.98 114.51 1,009.56 (282.75) (0.60) 726.21 315.00
Cash & Equivalents Assets Liabilities Equity Book Value
3,041.72 6,106.83 2,029.17 3,998.13 1,735.20
2,222.82 3,979.18 1,291.53 2,675.50 1,161.18
Change (YoY) 74.99% 47.38% 117.53% 42.75% 178.04% ‐50.50% 152.75% 196.04% 1039.10% 135.16% 135.24% 36.84% 53.47% 57.11% 49.43% 49.43%
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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Key Ratio
FY 2007A
FY 2008A
FY 2009 E
FY 2010 F
EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) PER (X) PBV (X) Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) DAR (x)
329.93 1,214.83 29.70 8.07 39.99% 22.93% 18.43% 19.77% 27.16% 0.40 0.29
741.18 1,596.08 13.22 6.14 48.92% 34.56% 23.67% 28.48% 46.44% 0.55 0.34
1,074.46 2,221.22 9.12 4.41 51.27% 36.83% 27.60% 32.41% 48.37% 0.49 0.33
1,135.67 2,855.21 8.63 3.43 50.04% 34.59% 26.01% 26.60% 39.78% 0.50 0.33
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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Investment Opportunity: • Profit Margin relatif lebih tinggi dibanding perusahaan sejenis • Dividen payout ratio relatif tinggi (50% sejak tahun 2001 Investment Risk: • Turunnya permintaan batubara • Turunnya harga batubara Your Trusted Professional
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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
Rencana / Prospek Ke Depan : • Akuisisi tambang baru di Kalimantan • Relokasi pabrik briket • Target penjualan tahun 2009 : 15,5 juta ton (+21% YoY) • Capex 2009 : IDR 1 triliun
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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
Rekomendasi: BUY, TP 12 bulan : Rp 9.800 EPS 09E : Rp 1.074 PER 09E : 9,12 X PBV 09E : 4,41 X
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PT INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH TBK (ITMG)
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Map of Operations
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Shareholders
Publik 26.28%
Banpu Mineral Pte Ltd 73.72%
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Reserves & Resources
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Total Coal Sales & Distribution
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Sales Volume
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Average Selling Price (ASP)
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ASP Movement
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Revenue Growth
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Gross Margin
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Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG FY 2008 Result (USD Millions) FY 2008
FY 2007
Sales COGS Gross Profit Operating Expenses Operating Income Other Income Profit Before Tax Income Tax Expense Minority Interest Net Income
1,316.98 (839.17) 477.81 (137.80) 340.01 5.67 345.68 (110.76) ‐ 234.93
771.82 (565.75) 206.07 (85.29) 120.77 (32.77) 88.00 (32.22) (0.60) 55.79
70.63% 48.33% 131.87% 61.56% 181.53% 117.30% 292.80% 243.77% ‐100.00% 321.13%
EPS
0.21
0.05
320.00%
Cash & Equivalents Assets Liabilities Equity Book Value
221.74 979.07 368.70 610.37 0.54
257.57 775.63 319.31 456.32 0.40
‐13.91% 26.23% 15.47% 33.76% 33.76%
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Change (YoY)
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Indo Tambangraya Megah Key Ratio
FY 2007A
FY 2008A
EPS (USD)
0.05 0.21 0.22 0.18
BV (USD) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin ROA (%) ROE (%) DER (x) DAR (x)
0.40 23.94 2.93 26.70% 15.65% 7.23% 7.19% 12.23% 0.70 0.41
0.54 5.68 2.19 36.28% 25.82% 17.84% 23.99% 38.49% 0.60 0.38
FY 2009 E 0.61 5.43 1.95 37.00% 27.00% 18.57% 22.62% 35.93% 0.59 0.37
FY 2010 F 0.63 6.44 1.88 36.00% 25.00% 17.22% 18.00% 29.23% 0.62 0.38
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Indo Tambangraya Megah Investment Opportunity: • Harga kontrak penjualan relatif tinggi • Valuasi Menarik • Besarnya dividen payout ratio (60% sejak tahun 2007) Investment Risk: • Turunnya permintaan batubara global • Turunnya harga batubara Your Trusted Professional
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Indo Tambangraya Megah Rencana / Prospek Ke Depan: • Bagi dividen final tahun 2008 sebesar IDR 706 per saham pada 28 Mei 2009 • Eksplorasi untuk tingkatkan sumber daya dan cadangan batubara • Rencana akuisisi tambang di Sumatera dan Kalimantan • Capex tahun 2009 : USD 126 juta • Target penjualan batubara tahun 2009 : 20,5 juta ton (+15% YoY) Your Trusted Professional
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Indo Tambangraya Megah
Rekomendasi: • HOLD, TP 12 bulan : Rp 13.000 • EPS 09E : USD 0.22 • PER 09E : 5,43 X • PBV 09E : 1,95 X
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Comparison Financial Highlights FY 2008 IDR Billion, unless otherwise stated
Revenue Operating Income Net Income EPS Book Value Cash Assets Liabilities Equity
ADRO 18,092.50 4,211.86 887.20 35.00 437.98 2,415.85 33,720.17 19,692.55 14,009.25
BUMI* 3,378.39 1,107.72 645.37 0.03 0.08 171.95 5,319.91 3,177.63 1,576.90
BYAN 4,876.94 201.15 20.71 7.00 597.75 1,531.70 6,747.20 4,734.35 1,992.49
INDY 2,314.45 123.22 1,084.74 224.00 1,001.24 2,989.27 8,710.19 3,496.52 5,213.61
ITMG* 1,316.98 340.01 234.93 0.21 0.54 221.74 979.07 368.70 610.37
PTBA 7,216.23 2,493.94 1,707.77 741.00 1,735.20 3,041.72 6,106.83 2,029.17 3,998.13
OPM NPM PER (x) PBV (x) DER (x)
23.28% 32.79% 4.12% 5.32% 25.82% 34.56% 4.90% 19.10% 0.42% 46.87% 17.84% 23.67% 27.14 3.19 421.43 9.82 6.39 12.15 2.17 1.32 4.94 2.20 2.48 5.19 1.41 2.02 2.38 0.67 0.60 0.51
* in USD million
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Comparison Coal Miners Comparison Stock
Resources
Reserves
(mln ton) (mln ton) (mln ton) ADRO 2,803.0 928.0 BUMI 7,367.0 2,119.0 PTBA 7,500.0 1,800.0 ITMG 1,675.0 312.0 BYAN 1,008.0 476.9 INDY 1,284.0 416.0 Simple Average
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EPS
Production FY 09F
FY 10F
38 Rp111.90 Rp95.2 52 $0.028 $0.02 11 Rp1,074.0 Rp1,135.0 18 $0.22 $0.18 6 Rp26.0 Rp144.0 22 Rp256.0 Rp1,130.0
PER FY 09F 8.49 3.83 8.38 6.10 113.46 8.59 24.81
FY 10F 9.98 5.36 7.93 7.45 20.49 1.95 8.86
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Thank You DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Indonesia.
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