Sector Update : Otomotif (Astra Group) Agustus 2009
PT Mega Capital Indonesia
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Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masih Berlanjut Domestic Auto Sales Trend 700,000
70,000
600,000
60,000
500,000
50,000
400,000
40,000
300,000
30,000
Dampak dari krisis global
200,000
Tren penurunan BI rate &penguatan nilai tukar
100,000
20,000
10,000
-
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
2W Sales
Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
4W Sales
Sumber : Gaikindo & AISI
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2
Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masih Berlanjut Astra Auto Sales 350,000
35,000
300,000
30,000
250,000
25,000
200,000
20,000
150,000
15,000
100,000
10,000
50,000
5,000
-
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08
Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 2W
4W (RHS)
Sumber : Perseroan
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3
Pangsa Pasar Otomotif Astra 2W Market Share as June 2009
4W Market Share as June 2009 Kawasaki, 1.44%
Others, 0.05%
Others, 12.2% Suzuki, 9.5% Mitsubishi, 12.1%
Suzuki, 8.74% Astra/Honda, 44.70%
Astra, 59.5%
Yamaha, 45.06% Honda, 6.6%
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4
BI Rate vs Auto Sales BI Rate vs 4W Sales 70,000
BI Rate vs 2W Sales 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09
4W Sales
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BI Rate
700,000
10% 9%
600,000
8% 500,000
7%
400,000
6% 5%
300,000
4%
200,000
3% 2%
100,000
1%
-
0% May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 2W Sales
BI Rate
5
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6
Revenue Breakdown Revenue Breakdown (IDR bio) 1H08 1H09 Otomotif 25,076 22,811 Financial services 3,793 3,974 Agribusiness 4,645 3,538 Information technology 373 673 Heavy equipment and mining 12,591 13,883 Others 13 129 Total 46,267 44,761
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% % to total revenue -9.0% 51.0% 4.8% 8.9% -23.8% 7.9% 80.4% 1.5% 10.3% 31.0% 892.3% 0.3% -3.3% 100.0%
Penjualan mobil dan motor 1H09 masing-masing turun 18% dan 17% YoY.
Penurunan harga CPO
Kontribusi pendapatan yang cukup besar dari UNTR
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Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi ASII's 1H09 Result Net revenue Cost of revenue Gross profit Operating expenses Operating income Other income/expenses Share of results of associates Profit before income tax Income tax expenses Income before minority interests Minority interests Net income EPS Your Trusted Professional
1H08 46,267 (35,191) 11,076 (4,466) 6,610 378 1,154 8,142 (2,289) 5,853 (1,100) 4,753 1,174
1H09 44,761 (34,122) 10,639 (4,753) 5,886 572 896 7,354 (1,965) 5,389 (1,146) 4,243 1,048
% -3.3% -3.0% -3.9% 6.4% -11.0% 51.3% -22.4% -9.7% -14.2% -7.9% 4.2% -10.7%
Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin
1H08 23.9% 14.3% 10.3%
1H09 23.8% 13.1% 9.5%
% -0.7% -8.0% -7.7%
58% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus, 57% dari ekspektasi kami
8
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9
Revenue Breakdown Revenue 1H09 Breakdown (IDR Bio) Construction Machinery Mining contracting Mining Total
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2008 2009 % Change % to total revenue 6,364 5,464 -14.1% 39.4% 4,653 6,888 48.0% 49.6% 1,575 1,532 -2.7% 11.0% 12,592 13,884 10.3% 100.0%
Penjualan turun 44%
Komatsu
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Mesin Konstruksi (Komatsu) Construction Machinery (Komatsu)
in Unit 350
600
300
500
250
400
200 300 150 200
100
100
50 0
Permintaan dari sektor pertambangan/perkebu nan masih kuat
0 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Agro
Construction
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Forestry
Mining
Total(RHS)
11
Pertambangan
000 ton
Coal Sales Volume (Dasa Eka Jasatama)
350 300 250 200
Turun karena permasalahan pengiriman (shipment)
150 100 50 0 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
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Overburden Removal (Pamapersada) Overburden Removal
mio bcm 60 50
• Kontributor pendapatan terbesar bagi UNTR
40
• Aktivitas pertambangan masih cukup kuat
30 20 10 0 Jun-08
Aug-08
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Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
13
Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi UNTR's1H 2009 Result (IDR Bio) Net Revenue COGS Gross profit Operating expenses Operating Income Other Income/expenses Share of results of associates Profit before income tax Income tax expenses Income before minority interest Minority Interest Net Income EPS
Your Trusted Professional
2008 12,592 (10,134) 2,458 (527) 1,931 (68) 2 1,865 (649) 1,216 (10) 1,206
2009 13,884 (10,660) 3,225 (641) 2,584 151 3 2,738 (848) 1,891 (18) 1,873
423
563
% 10.3% 5.2% 31.2% 21.6% 33.8% 321.0% 69.9% 46.8% 30.6% 55.5% 82.5% 55.3%
Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin
1H08 19.5% 15.3% 9.6%
1H09 23.2% 18.6% 13.5%
% 19.0% 21.3% 40.8%
Margin yang lebih tinggi, karena kemampuan dalam memantain cost
Kenaikan keuntungan signifikan
selisih
kurs
yang
63% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus dan ekspektasi kami
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Valuasi masih cukup menarik Investment Opportunity: • Permintaan alat berat untuk sektor berbasis komoditi masih cukup kuat • Potensial revenue yang cukup besar dari bisnis tambang batubara (TTA&DEJ) • Tren penurunan suku bunga dan membaiknya nilai tukar Rupiah Investment Risk: • Sensitif terhadap perkembangan harga komoditi&kondisi makro ekonomi Rekomendasi: BUY, TP : Rp. 14.500 DCF ( WACC : 17,62%, LTG : 2% ) Your Trusted Professional
Key Ratio 2006A EPS (IDR) EPS Growth (%) P/E (x) BV (IDR) P/BV (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) DER (x) Interest Coverage (%)
326 -11.49% 20.09 4,938 4.07 20.25% 8.27% 0.92 3.39
2007A 524 60.48% 20.80 3,840 5.42 26.04% 11.48% 0.67 4.93
2008A 2009F 800 52.76% 6.31 4,184 1.32 23.90% 11.65% 0.40 13.61
892 11.45% 16.36 4,466 3.27 22.39% 12.06% 0.37 13.73
2010F 1,120 25.57% 13.03 4,279 3.41 23.37% 12.82% 0.33 15.67
Source : Company, MCI Estimates
15
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16
Harga jual CPO rata-rata Rp./kg
AALI's Monthly CPO Price 2009
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan
Your Trusted Professional
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
17
Sales vs Average Selling Price Sales Volume (000 ton)
476.9
494
Average Selling Price (Rp./kg)
1H08
1H09
24,204
1H08 1H09
16,873
10,599 8,299 6,386 80.7 69.5
CPO
Kernel
6,153 4,418 2,528
8 12.5
11 17.7
2.4 2.5
PKO
PKE
Rubber
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925 392
CPO
Kernel
PKO
PKE
Rubber
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Kinerja 1H09 sejalan dengan ekspektasi AALI's 1H09 Result IDR Bio Net Sales COGS Gross Profit Operating Income/Expense Operating Profit Other Income/Expense Profit before income tax Income Tax Expense Minority Interest Net Income EPS EPS Consensus FY09F Your Trusted Professional
1H08 4,644.7 (2,106.0) 2,538.7 (187.3) 2,351.4 64.3 2,415.7 (760.0) (57.6) 1,598.1 1,014
1H09 3,537.8 (2,158.9) 1,378.9 (223.6) 1,155.3 1.3 1,156.6 (357.9) (28.8) 769.9 489 1,102
% -23.8% 2.5% -45.7% 19.4% -50.9% -98.0% -52.1% -52.9% -50.0% -51.8%
Gross Gross Profit Profit Margin Margin Operating Operating Margin Margin EBITDA EBITDA Margin Margin Net Net Profit Profit Margin Margin
1H08 1H08 54.7% 54.7% 50.6% 50.6% 54.3% 54.3% 34.4% 34.4%
1H09 1H09 39.0% 39.0% 32.7% 32.7% 36.4% 36.4% 21.8% 21.8%
%% -28.7% -28.7% -35.5% -35.5% -33.0% -33.0% -36.8% -36.8%
44% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus
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P/E Chart P/E FY10F (x) 30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan- Apr05 05
Jul05
Oct05
AALI LSIP SGRO UNSP
Jan- Apr06 06
Jul06
Market Cap (bio) 30,235 9,347 3,364 2,917 11466
Oct06
Jan- Apr07 07
FY09F 1,049 466 133 43 423
Jul07
Oct07
EPS (Rp) FY10F 1,244 474 159 44 480
Jan08
Apr08
FY09F 18.20 14.71 13.31 17.86 16.02
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
P/E (x) FY10F 15.36 14.45 11.13 17.57 14.63
Source : MCI Estimates
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Netral Investment Opportunity: • Harga CPO diperkirakan membaik di kuartal 2 2009 • Permintaan CPO masih besar Investment Risk: • Faktor cuaca dan penggunaan pupuk sangat mempengaruhi produksi Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 19.900 P/E FY10E = 16x
Key Ratio EPS (IDR) EPS Growth (%) P/E (x) BV (IDR) P/BV (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) DER (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
2007 1,253 150.65% 16.96 2,580 10.85 57.96% 44.60% 0.03 9.00
2008 1,671 33.32% 4.65 3,276 2.99 57.09% 44.32% 0.03 7.80
2009F 1,049 -37.19% 18.96 3,887 5.12 29.31% 23.95% 0.03 10.86
2010F 1,244 18.49% 16.00 4,612 4.31 29.26% 24.80% 0.02 9.63
Source : Company, MCI Estimates Your Trusted Professional
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Valuasi Astra International Sum-of-the Parts ASII (parent) UNTR AALI BNLI AUTO ASGR
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Method Total Equity Value (bn) % to total DCF @WACC 13,5% 48,628 39.8% DCF @TP 14.500 42,828 35.0% P/E @16x FY10F 24,965 20.4% Market Cap 2,343 1.9% Market Cap 3,209 2.6% Market Cap 352 0.3% Total value 122,324 Number of Share 4.048 Equity Value per Share 30,218
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Netral Investment Opportunity: • Menguasai pangsa pasar otomotif di Indonesia • Tren penurunan suku bunga dan penguatan Rupiah menopang penjualan otomotif • Bisnis yang terdiversifikasi Investment Risk: • Daya beli masyarakat terhadap kendaraan bermotor belum sepenuhnya pulih Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 30.200 P/E FY10E = 14,88x Your Trusted Professional
Key Ratio EPS (IDR) EPS Growth (%) P/E (x) BV (IDR) P/BV (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) DER (x)
2007 1,610 75.57% 16.96 6,660 4.10 24.18% 10.26% 0.31
2008 2,270 40.99% 4.65 8,171 1.29 27.78% 11.38% 0.29
2009F 1,852 -18.40% 16.30 9,572 3.17 19.35% 8.88% 0.30
2010F 2,030 9.56% 14.88 11,109 2.73 18.27% 8.64% 0.29
Source : Company, MCI Estimates
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