Perkembangan kemiskinan dan kondisi sosial ekonomi Indonesia Arief Anshory Yusuf, Ph.D
*) internationally poor is defined as those living below Rp 450,000 per person per month, or Rp 15,000 per person per day. It is equivalent to a typical family with total expenditure of RP 1.7 million per month. It is based on PPP$3.1 moderate poverty line used by the World Bank. Near poor used 1.2*national poverty line BALI
DKI
KALSEL
KALTENG
KALTIM
KEPRI
BANTEN
KBK
MALUT
SULUT
KALBAR
SULSEL
KALUT
RIAU
JABAR
JAMBI
5.0
5.9
6.2
6.2
5.9
4.7
3.9
8.6 6.8 5.4
14.0
14.2
13.2
11.1
23.7
20.5
20.7
20.4
18.1
18.8
25.1
25.5
25.7
25.9
31.2
29.4 29.2
26.1
23.7
20.9
19.7
16.8
16.9
21.1
18.2
17.3
14.6
12.2
18.3
22.8
33.4
32.4
29.5
35.9
37.6
35.2
42.1
39.0
46.9
47.3
44.3
42.2
39.7
37.0
38.5
35.4
32.4
29.9
27.0
23.9
22.0
19.0 18.6
25.0
26.0
28.7
27.7
27.4
25.4
23.5
21.5
18.8
16.0
14.0
11.4
9.4 8.0
6.2
8.4
9.5
8.9
7.3
12.9
10.5
18.3
30.4
31.9
30.1
28.8
25.8
28.2
36.3
+Near Poor
SUMBAR
SULTRA
SUMUT
11.2
12.4
12.3
14.9
14.2
13.6
14.7
14.3
17.1
17.9
19.5
17.1
22.6
Poor
NATIONAL
SULBAR
JATIM
DIY
SUMSEL
JATENG
GORONTALO
SULTENG
LAMPUNG
NTB
BENGKULU
MALUKU
ACEH
PAPBAR
PAPUA
NTT
Poverty incidence, national, +near poor, internationally poor (%), March 2015 Internationally Poor*
Poor Near Poor Internationally Poor*
KALUT
MALUT
KBK
164
276
290
Near Poor
387
399
404
80000
PAPBAR
GORONTALO
SULBAR
407
60000
KEPRI
507
571
702
Poor
KALTENG
SULUT
KALTIM
709
733
30000
MALUKU
SULTRA
741
6000
BENGKULU
8000
750
783
916
1,031
1,196
1,200
1,431
1,516
1,633
1,880
10000
BALI
KALSEL
JAMBI
SULTENG
DIY
KALBAR
PAPUA
SUMBAR
RIAU
NTB
2,102
2,171
2,428
2,492
2,685
1,904
2000
DKI
ACEH
SULSEL
NTT
BANTEN
SUMSEL
4,098 3,048
4000
LAMPUNG
SUMUT
12,131 11,860
12000
JATENG
JABAR
12,573
14000
JATIM
Poverty incidence, national, +near poor, internationally poor (000 people) March 2015
NATIONAL 76,119
70000 54,893
50000
40000 28,593
20000
10000 0 Internationally Poor*
0
Indonesia vs Cambodia? INDONESIA GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of pop.) Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop.) Poverty headcount ratio at $3.10 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop.) Prevalence of stunting, height for age (% of children under 5) Prevalence of severe wasting (% of children under 5) Prevalence of wasting (% of children under 5) CAMBODIA GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of pop.) Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop.) Poverty headcount ratio at $3.10 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop.) Prevalence of stunting, height for age (% of children under 5) Prevalence of severe wasting (% of children under 5) Prevalence of wasting (% of children under 5)
2010
2012
2013
2014
8,234 2,530 13.3 15.9 46.3 39.2 5.4 12.3
9,017 3,580 12.0
9,394 3,740 11.4
9,725 3,630 11.3
2,397 750 22.1 10.0 42.4 40.9 2.8 10.8
2,647 880 17.7 6.2 37.0
41.7 36.4 6.7 13.5
2,777 960
2,924 1,020
32.4 2.3 9.6
Recent trend in poverty (1) Large increase in rice price, 17% in 6 months (2) economic slowdown (3) delayed disbursement of fuel subsidy compensation increase poverty. Pover ty incidence and r ice pr ice 19
16000
Rice price
17
14000
12000
Rural poverty 10000
13
National poverty
11.22
8000
11
11.13
10.96 Urban poverty
9
7
4000
Sept'14 to March '15
5
6000
2000
0
Real Rice Price
Urban poverty
Rural poverty
Total overty
Real price of rice (Rp)
Poverty incidence (%)
15
Recent economic growth performance
Growth in quarter 2, 2015 is slightly slower than quarter 1. The slowest in 5 years. Growth coincides with the declining world commodity prices. Recovery is in sight. 8.00 7.00
6.81
6.00
5.99
6.29
6.48
6.27
5.81
5.60
6.21 6.01 5.94 6.11 5.94 5.87
5.14 5.03 4.92 5.01
5.00
May-…
Jan-15
Sep-14
Rubber
May-…
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-…
Palm Oil
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-…
Jan-12
Crude Oil
Sep-11
May-…
Jan-11
Sep-10
Copper
May-…
Coal
Jan-10
1.00
Sep-09
2.00
Monthly Commodity Price Index (2011M1=100)
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Jan-09
3.00
5.04 4.72 4.67 4.74
4.14 4.27
May-…
4.52 4.00
5.61 5.59 5.50 5.61
Mar, 2009 Jun, 2009 Sep, Dec, 2009 Mar, 2009 2010 Jun, 2010 Sep, Dec, 2010 Mar, 2010 2011 Jun, 2011 Sep, Dec, 2011 Mar, 2011 2012 Jun, 2012 Sep, Dec, 2012 Mar, 2012 2013 Jun, 2013 Sep, Dec, 2013 Mar, 2013 2014 Jun, 2014 Sep, Dec, 2014 Mar, 2014 2015 Jun, 2015 Sep, Dec, 2015 2015
1-Jan-14
2-Jul-14 Rice Sugar Chicken Egg Beef
26-Aug-15
12-Aug-15
29-Jul-15
15-Jul-15
1-Jul-15
17-Jun-15
3-Jun-15
20-May-15
6-May-15
22-Apr-15
8-Apr-15
25-Mar-15
Jokowi's inauguration
11-Mar-15
25-Feb-15
11-Feb-15
28-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
Mid Sept = 100
31-Dec-14
17-Dec-14
3-Dec-14
19-Nov-14
5-Nov-14
22-Oct-14
8-Oct-14
24-Sep-14
10-Sep-14
27-Aug-14
13-Aug-14
30-Jul-14
120
16-Jul-14
125
18-Jun-14
4-Jun-14
21-May-14
7-May-14
23-Apr-14
9-Apr-14
26-Mar-14
12-Mar-14
26-Feb-14
12-Feb-14
29-Jan-14
15-Jan-14
Food price inflation
Escalation of staple prices in early 2015. Import restriction may have contributed to the price volatility. Index of the price of selected staples 15-Sept-14=100
130
Fasting month
Beef traders‟ strike
Mid March
115
110
105
Baso sellers‟s strike
100
95
90
85
80
Chicken pouridge sellers‟ “strike”
Saat ini hanya 6 negara dengan „red alert‟!
Swasembada pangan?
Ketahanan atau swasembada pangan?
Swasembada vs pengentasan kemiskinan? Tidak impor tapi mahal? Timing? Swasembada dalam jangka panjang Affordability dijaga dalam jangka pendek, at any cost.
Permasalahan sosial yang mendesak
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0.00 2000
Ketika di tempat lain (misal Amerika Latin) menurun
2.00
1999
Indikasi tertinggi di ASEAN
4.00
1998
Ketimpangan meningkat ke arah yg cukup serius.
7.4
6.00
1997
Status kesehatan rendah
8.00
1996
Kualitas pendidikan rendah
12.0
Decile dispersion ratio
10.00
1995
1% harga beras naik, jumlah orang miskin bertambah 1.2% (ceteris paribus)
12.00
Expenditure ratio of the 10% richest to the 10% poorest
1994
Kerentanan terhadap kemiskinan tinggi
14.00
1993
Kemiskinan menurun tapi masih besar, terutama di pedesaan
Paradigma baru
Kebijakan sosial untuk pertumbuhan
Teori pertumbuhan baru (Endogenous growth theory, human capital) Credit market imperfection Investing in young children (Heckman) – Education and health support Temuan empiris baru (growth spell) misal IMF (2014) , OECD (2014)
No big breakthrough given expectation? Nomenclature
Note on the change
Target/beneficiaries SBY All Elementary & junior secondary schools
SBY School Operational Assistance (BOS)
Jokowi Same.
Poor Students Assistance (BSM)
Kartu Indonesia Pintar (KIP)
Target is extended to schoolaged children not attending school and non-formal school
Direct Cash Assistance, People’s Temporary Direct Assistance (BLT/BLSM) Rice for the poor (Raskin)
Program Simpanan Keluarga Sejahtera (PSKS) Beras sejahtera?
Using saving account, instead of 15.5M households cash.
Talk about changing into coupon-based (e-money). Now is extended 2 months as part of 2015 economic stimulus.
15.5M
Same.
Rp 1,600/kg
Conditional cash transfer (PKH)
Same.
Coverage extension 2x. Involvement of regional gov’t.
3.2M very poor households
6.4M very poor households
1.32.8M/family/year, 2013
Health Insurance Assitance (JKN)
Kartu Indonesia Sehat
15.5M
Same.
PNPM None.
Same. Village fund (Dana Desa)
Some are retained. Village fund program has been legalised since 2014
Poor enrolled school children (11.2M)
Jokowi
Nominal assistance/target
Total budget (Rp T) SBY Jokowi 47.4 65.7
SBY 580,000/students/ yyear (SD), 710,000 (SMP)
Jokowi Same.
Poor school-aged children (20.3M)
225,000 – 1M/students/sem ester
225,000 – 500,000/studen ts/semester
9.1
15.5
Same.
150,000/ month/ household/ Temporary
200,000/month / household
6.4
10.1
Temporary Same.
18.2
18.9
Same.
4.4
6.4
20,000/person/mo Same. nth
23.3
20.4
14.6
3.5 20.8
Same.
74,000 villages
280M/ village
During the campaign Jokowi promised to give Indonesia KIP (Kartu Indonesia Pintar)
KIP was assumed to be the nationalisation of Kartu Jakarta Pintar (KJP), the initiative he introduced as Jakarta’s governor.
Yet, KIP is the continuation of the SBY’s program of BSM (Bantuan Siswa Miskin).
KJP is given to children of poor families who are at school. The assistance is quite substantial Rp 180,000 to Rp 240,000 per students per month.
The coverage of its beneficiaries are expanded, but the nominal amount of assistance per student is the same as BSM. It is Rp 37,500 to 83,000 per student per month.
Simulation suggest that Jokowi could have reduced the Gini coefficient into 0.40 (2015 target) and reduced poverty significantly if applying KJP nation-wide and still within the new fiscal space.
Energy subsidy is too big and regressive.
Health spending is small.
Education spending is large yet not pro-poor and Targeted regressive (Lustig, 2015) social spending is Infrastructure limited. spending is too low.
What remains?
Why health outcome is suboptimal? Too little to spend? Backsliding in fuel pricing reform. What if oil price up? Nutritional status of children under 5 (Heckman) How to make education The balance between spending cost-effective and inrastructure and targeted pro-poor. social spending?
Percent
Gov't spending on selected sectors
Change in spending 2014-2015 (Rp Trilion)
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Electricity subsidy
-28.7
Fuel subsidy
-175.3
Targeted social spending
37.3
112.4 Infrastructure Education
24.5
Health
16.9 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Health
Education
Infrastructure
Targeted social spending
Fuel subsidy
Electricity subsidy
BEFORE JOKOWI
2015
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Energy subsidy is massively reduced. Infrastructure double (in proportion, 12%p) Targeted social spending increases (5%p)
JOKOWI
180
Direct transfers (BLSM/PSKS)
120
Family Hope Program (PKH)
100
PNPM/Village Fund
80 60
SECONDARY
140
PRIMARY
Rice for the poor (Raskin)
160
40
Poor Students Assistance (BSM)/KIP
20 0 2014
2015
School Assistance Program (BOS)
TERTIARY
Health Insurances
Pro-poor CC is negative
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Peru (2009) South Africa (2010)
Brazil (2009)
Targetted social spending programs (Rp Trilion)
Chile (2009) Colombia (2010) Indonesia (2012) Mexico (2010)
Education dominates social (and general) spending, yet learning outcome is low, and not equitable.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Same per capita for all; CC=0 Progressive CC positive but lower than market income Gini Pro-poor CC is negative
+
Same per capita for all; CC=0 Progressive CC positive but lower than market income Gini Pro-poor CC is negative Same per capita for all; CC=0 Progressive CC positive but lower than market income Gini Regressive CC positive AND higher than market income Gini
+
+
+ +
Lustig (2015)
PENDIDKAN KESEHATAN/NUTRISI
KEADILAN
perlindungan sosial
MODAL MANUSIA
INOVASI
Keadilan untuk pertumbuhan
PEMERATAAN KESEMPATAN
NEGARA
PRODUKTIVITAS
PERTUMBUHAN TINGGI
LINGKUNGAN PENDUKUNG
Best practice of pro-poor and inequalityreducing public spending: KJP 2016: 2.5 trilyun untuk 611 ribu siswa (5% penduduk) Poor Jakartan mean expenditure Rp 2 million KJP=210-390ribu rupiah: SIGNIFICANT!
Immediate impact: declining poverty, reducing inequality. Long-run impact: human capital accummulation, socio-economic mobility, poverty decline, inequality decline.
Sumber: BPS
-4.9 -5.0 -8.6
Maluku Utara Papua Sulawesi Selatan
-13.9
-1.8
Kepulauan Riau
DKI Jakarta
-1.1
Kalimantan Tengah
-0.1
Kalimantan Timur
0.8
Bali -0.1
1.8
Kalimantan Barat
Papua Barat
5.8
11.0
Sulawesi Utara
Sulawesi Barat
11.8
Gorontalo
6.9
14.2
Aceh
Bangka Belitung
15.2
Jawa Tengah
7.3
17.6
Bengkulu
Nusa Tenggara Barat
17.6
DI Yogyakarta
7.8
19.0
Jambi
Sulawesi Tenggara
19.6
Lampung
8.9
21.4
Maluku
Kalimantan selatan
24.9
Sumatera Barat
33.1
Riau
-50 34.6
0
Sulawesi Tengah
59.8 53.2 40.7
50
Jawa Timur
Banten
Sumatera Selatan
Sumatera Utara
Nusa Tenggara Timur 103.1
168.0
196.7
200
Jawa Barat
Penambahan Jumlah orang miskin (Sept'14-Mar'15, Ribu orang)
250
150
100
0.3
Jabar kota+desa, 0.41
Jabar kota, 0.43
Jakarta, 0.43
Jabar desa, 0.32
0.35
Jabar kota+desa, 0.4
0.4
Jabar desa, 0.29
0.45
Jabar kota, 0.41
0.5
Jakarta, 0.44
Ketimpangan (Koefisien Gini) Sept'14-Mar'15
0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1
0.05 0 Sep-14
Jakarta
Jabar kota
Maret 2015
Jabar desa
Jabar kota+desa
Sumber: BPS
Ruang untuk perbaikan
Selesaikan masalah pendidikan. Where is the value for money? Pendidikan tinggi sebagai pemicu mobilitas sosial. Early intervention. Perluas dan perbesar conditional cash transfers. Paling menjanjikan.
KJP-kan KIP Invest in early childhood development (Nutrisi/kesehatan kurang terperhatikan)
Lainnya Pastikan pembangunan infrastruktur juga menghasilkan pertumbuhan yg inklusif. Agenda ketahanan pangan jangan menyakiti orang miskin (seperti sekarang).
Pastikan subsidi BBM tidak kembali lagi. Naikkan harga rokok menjadi 5075ribu/bungkus.
