Milyar USD. Trilyun USD. Pembiayaan global Pembiayaan ke Indonesia. 5 Sumber: BIS (2012)

40

Milyar USD

Trilyun USD

35

120

Pembiayaan global Pembiayaan ke Indonesia

30

140

100

25 80 20 60 15 40

10

20

5 Sumber: BIS (2012) 0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

140 Milyar USD 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Sumber: BIS (2012) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1.2

Tujuan Penelitian

(1)

(2)

1.3

Organisasi Penulisan

2.1

Landasan Teori



…. (1) …. (2)

Risiko M 2

A P

2 B

2

N

R B Rp

RA

Return

(3) yaitu (3a) (3b) (3c)

Aktiva

Passiva

Excess Reserve

Rekening Giro dan Tabungan

Giro Wajib Minimum

Deposito Berjangka

Kredit

Sumber dana lain

Obligasi Pemerintah

Modal

SBI Term Deposit PUAB Surat berharga lainnya

2.2

Pengaruh

2.2.1 Krisis Global terhadap Pasar Keuangan

ΔRi,t = αi,t + βi,tΔRb,t + εi,t …. (9)

Δ

‐

JCI = f[DJIA, (10)

α











ε

2.2.2 Internal dan External Capital Market dan Neraca Perbankan

Large global bank

Domestic parent balance sheet

Foreign affiliate balance sheet

Liquid assets

Deposits

Foreign liquid assets

Deposits

Loans

Other funds

Loans

Other funds

Domestic loans

External borrowing

Foreign loans

Cross-border loans

Internal borrowing

Internal lending

Capital

Capital

Stand-alone local bank balance sheet Liquid assets

Deposits

Loans

Other funds Cross-border borrowing

Capital

Gambar 4. Transmisi Global Shock pada Perbankan

2.3

Penelitian International Bank Lending

A Cross Border Claims

B

C

Local claims of

Local claims of

foreign affiliates

foreign

in foreign

affiliates in

currency

local currency

International Claims (A+B) Foreign Claims (A+B+C)

3.2

Pengujian Dampak Global Financial Shock terhadap Cross Border Lending

∆

3.3

Pengujian Dampak Penempatan Perbankan Global ke Indonesia terhadap Perilaku Kredit di Indonesia Via Foreign Affiliates

4.1

Analisis Deskriptif

40

140 Trilyun USD

Milyar USD 120

35 30

Foreign Claims International Claims Local Claims

Foreign Claims International Claims

100

25

Local Claims

80

20 60

15 40

10 5

Sumber: BIS (2012)

0

20

Sumber: BIS (2012)

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

14

Milyar USD

12

10

8

6

4

2

Sumber: BIS (2012) Jun.2011

Dec.2011

Jun.2010

Dec.2010

Jun.2009

Dec.2009

Jun.2008

Dec.2008

Jun.2007

Dec.2007

Jun.2006

Dec.2006

Jun.2005

Dec.2005

Jun.2004

Dec.2004

Jun.2003

Dec.2003

Jun.2002

Dec.2002

Jun.2001

Dec.2001

Jun.2000

Dec.2000

Dec.1999

Dec.1998

Dec.1997

Dec.1996

Dec.1995

Dec.1994

0

Grafik 5. Pergerakan International Claims ke Perbankan Indonesia 1994-2011

Sumber: BIS (2012) Volatilitas pembiayaan perbankan dan sudden reversal tidak hanya dialami Indonesia, tetapi juga dialami negara berkembang lainnya, seperti Thailand pada krisis 1998 (Grafik 6). 140 Milyar USD Indonesia

120

Thailand

100 80 60 40 20 0

Sumber: BIS (2012) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

29% 15% Sep.11

17% 17% 22% 27% 15% 14%

Sep.09 13%

30% 24% 14% 14% 14%

Sep.08

35% 0%

5%

10%

Other Sumber: BIS (2012)

United States

4%

8%

Japan

5%

40%

Europe but UK

43%

17%

21%

30%

19% 18%

10%

Other Sumber: BIS (2012)

United Kingdom

35%

15% 8%

5%

0%

30%

19%

4% 5%

Sep.08

25%

10%

6% 4%

Sep.09

20%

13%

3%

Sep.11

15%

15%

Swiss

20%

Itali

22% 25%

Perancis

28% 30%

Belanda

35%

Jerman

40%

UK

45%

50%

70% 12

Miliar USD

Total Offshore Centres

Developed Developing

60%

10

50%

8

40%

6

30%

20%

4

10%

2

0% -10%

Sumber: DInt (2012)

4

Sumber: DInt (2012)

Offshore Centres Developed Developing

7% 4%

Des 2011

14%

8%

31%

36%

10%

10%

3%

Sep-09

29%

19%

29%

10%

30%

8% 7%

Mar-08

26%

20%

0%

5% Other Dev

10%

15% Other Eur

20% Germany

25% UK

30% USA

35%

Japan

Sumber: DInt (2012)

1,400

Juta USD Europe

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Sumber: DInt (2012) -

Japan

USA

40%

24% Des. 11

35% 42% BUSN Devisa 26% 23%

Sep.08

Bank Persero 40% 50%

Sep.07

42% 17%

0% 10% Sumber: DInt (2012)

400

20%

Trilyu n Rupia h

350 300

30%

40%

Kredit Valas

50%

60%

Pinjaman LN (RHS)

12

Milyar

10 8

250 200

6

150

4

100 2

50 Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-08

0 Mar-09

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-07

Mar-07

0

Sep-07

Sumber: DInt dan DPIP (2012)

Grafik 14. Kredit Valas dan Utang Luar Negeri Perbankan

Trilyun Rp

200

50

0

Sumber: DInt dan DPIP (2012)

4.2 Sep.2000 Feb.2001 Jul.2001 Dec.2001 May.2002 Oct.2002 Mar.2003 Ags.2003 Jan.2004 Jun.2004 Nov.2004 Apr.2005 Sep.2005 Feb.2006 Jul.2006 Dec.2006 May.2007 Oct.2007 Mar.2008 Ags.2008 Jan.2009 Jun.2009 Nov.2009 Apr.2010 Sep.2010 Feb.2011 Jul.2011 Dec.2011

350

Sep.2000 Feb.2001 Jul.2001 Dec.2001 May.2002 Oct.2002 Mar.2003 Ags.2003 Jan.2004 Jun.2004 Nov.2004 Apr.2005 Sep.2005 Feb.2006 Jul.2006 Dec.2006 May.2007 Oct.2007 Mar.2008 Ags.2008 Jan.2009 Jun.2009 Nov.2009 Apr.2010 Sep.2010 Feb.2011 Jul.2011 Dec.2011

400

Foreign Affiliates Bank Persero 2000

Bank BUSN Devisa Total Kredit Valas 1800

300

1400

250

1200

150

600

100

400

Trilyun Rp Foreign Affiliates Bank Persero

Bank BUSN Devisa

1600

Total Kredit Rupiah

1000 800

200

0

Sumber: DInt dan DPIP (2012)

Pengujian Dampak Global Financial Shock terhadap Cross Border Lending

Variabel

cons

5

Coef.

Robust Std. Err

-0.23

0.03***)

-0.010

0.005**)

0.007

0.002***)

-0.003

0.004

0.006

0.006

-0.002

0.00009*)

-0.0002

0.00009***)

0.01

0.003***)

3.29

1.14***)

-0.72

0.26

Uji sargan tidak dapat dilakukan setelah menggunakan model panel dinamis dengan robust standard error karena distribusi tes sargan tidak diketahui saat disturbances bersifat heteroskedastic (Drukker, 2008)

4.3

Pengujian Dampak Penempatan Perbankan Global ke Indonesia terhadap Perilaku Kredit di Indonesia Via Foreign Affiliate

Variabel

ARELLANO-BOND (REV1) 0. 655 (0.013)*** 0.245 (0.051)*** -0.01 (0.009) 0.462 (0.089)*** 0.087 (0.007)***

Sargan Test

0.01 (0.006)* 0.579 (0.024)*** -0.01 (0.001)*** -0.103 (0.018)*** 0.047 (0.025)* 0.48

Variabel

p-value (Fisher)

p-value Breitung

p-value IPS

p-value LLC

0.0000***)

0.0000***)

0.0000***)

0.0000***)

0.0783*)

0.0123**)

0.0407**)

0.0000***)

0.0027***)

0.0000***)

0.0018***)

0.0008***)

0.0920*)

0.0264**)

0.0941*)

0.1237

0.0071**)

0.8283

0.2566

0.0004***)

0.0733*)

0.2960

0.0299

0.0000***)

0.0000***)

0.0000***)

0.0000***)

0.0509*)

0.0001***)

0.0000***)

0.0001***)

0.0478**)

0.0037***)

0.1642

0.0030***)

0.0000***)

Variabel

cons R-square AB test AR1 AB test AR2

(1) OLS

(2) FE

-0.21 (0.04)***) -0.008 (0.006) 0.006 (0.002)**) 0.002 (0.004) 0.003 (0.008) -0.001 (0.001) 0.010 (0.004)**) -0.0003 (0.0001)***) 2.81 (1.64) -0.69 (0.32) 0.21

-0.23 (0.03)**) -0.010 (0.005) 0.007 (0.002) *) -0.003 (0.005) 0.006 (0.007) -0.001 (0.001) 0.010 (0.004)*) -0.0002 (0.0001) 3.29 (1.35)*) -0.72 (0.31) 0.22

(3) ARELLANOBOND -0.23 (0.03)***) -0.010 (0.005)**) 0.007 (0.002)***) -0.003 (0.004) 0.006 (0.006) -0.002 (0.0009)*) 0.010 (0.003)***) -0.0002 (0.00009)***) 3.29 (1.14)***) -0.72 (0.26) 0.06 0.72

Variabel

R-square Sargan Test

(1) OLS(4)

(2) FE(1)

0.782 (0.004)*** -0.04 (0.002)*** -0.011 (0.001)*** 0.799 (0.04)*** 0.097 (0.004)*** 0.004 (0.001)*** 0.259 (0.005)*** -0.003 (0.0005)*** -0.086 (0.008)*** 0.028 (0.009)***

0.651 (0.06)*** 0.202 (0.187) -0.023 (0.029) 0.437 (0.228)* 0.101 (0.028)*** 0.01 (0.02) 0.504 (0.097)*** -0.007 (0.004)* -0.103 (0.039)*** 0.004 (0.072)

0.96

0.96

(3) A-B (REV1) 0. 655 (0.013)*** 0.245 (0.051)*** -0.01 (0.009) 0.462 (0.089)*** 0.087 (0.007)*** 0.01 (0.006)* 0.579 (0.024)*** -0.01 (0.001)*** -0.103 (0.018)*** 0.047 (0.025)* 0.48