June 12, 2017
Franky Rivan
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at
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Wijaya Karya (WIKA): Always a light at the end of tunnel
Market Index Last Trade JCI MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM HANG SENG KOSPI FTSE DJIA NASDAQ Valuation 2017F JCI
Chg (%)
MoM
5,675.5 26.7 1,018.2 26,030.3 2,381.7 7,527.3 21,272.0 6,207.9
-0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 1.0 0.4 -1.8
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
16.0
YoY
0.5 1.1 1.7 3.6 4.2 0.2 1.4 3.3
17.6 17.8 23.7 23.9 18.0 21.8 18.6 29.2
ROE (%)
2.4
18.5
Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) BI 7-Day RR
4.75 3yr 6.72 10yr 6.90 *since introduced in Aug 2016
MoM
0 -1 -3
0 -7 -23
YoY
-50* -54 -74
FX Last Trade USD/IDR
Chg (%)
13,291.00 1,123.15 110.32 6.80
USD/KRW USD/JPY USD/CNY
MoM
-0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1
-0.4 -0.4 -2.7 -1.6
YoY
0.1 -4.3 3.8 3.6
Commodities Last Trade WTI
Chg (%)
45.8 1,266.8 79.5 2,680.0 138.8 8,980.0 5,804.0 18,830.0
Gold Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel Copper Tin
MoM
0.4 -0.9 4.5 1.1 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.2
-4.9 3.1 7.6 -3.9 -15.2 -3.6 4.4 -5.3
Meskipun membukukan kinerja yang baik di 1Q17, harga saham Wijaya Karya (WIKA/Buy/TP IDR3,200) terus underperforming IHSG sebesar -13,5% YTD. Kami percaya bahwa masalah utama WIKA saat ini adalah risiko operasional di proyek kereta cepat (HSR) Jakarta-Bandung. Namun, kami yakin risiko dari lini bisnis WIKA yang lain akan membantu mengimbangi risiko proyek tersebut. Small obstacles for huge project Menurut kami, risiko utama saat ini terhadap HSR Jakarta-Bandung adalah: 1) melambatnya proses pembebasan lahan oleh konsorsium, 2) kebutuhan investasi yang lebih besar karena biaya yang lebih besar, dan 3) potensi addendum kontrak dari pihak China. Secara keseluruhan, kami menilai risiko ini akan ternetralisir ke depannya, karena: 1) konsorsium dapat membebaskan lahan lebih cepat mengingat basis modal yang lebih tinggi pasca pencairan pinjaman dari China, 2) kebutuhan modal proyek yang lebih besar akan diimbangi oleh nilai kontrak yang lebih besar juga mengingat semakin tingginya biaya pekerjaan konstruksi, dan 3) kami lihat China Railway akan mengurangi agresivitasnya dalam addendum proyek HSR Jakarta-Bandung demi memenangkan proyek HSR Bandung-Surabaya. Maintain Buy and TP of IDR3,200 Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy dan target harga IDR3,200 untuk WIKA, karena: 1) risiko utama saat ini di proyek HSR Jakarta-Bandung akan dinetralisir dalam waktu dekat dan 2) operasional perusahaan di bisnis TOD memiliki upside risks yang menarik terhadap perusahaan. WIKA adalah top-pick kami di sektor konstruksi. Target harga berbasis DCF kami mencerminkan 5% perpetual growth rate, premi risiko pasar 5% market risk premium, 7.5% risk-free rate, 1.12x beta, dan 11.6% WACC. WIKA saat ini sedang diperdagangkan di 2017F P/E sebesar 10x, di bawah standar deviasinya di 12,4x.
YoY
-12.1 -1.3 50.0 3.9 15.3 0.6 28.7 9.9
WIKA’s 17F P/E range
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt)
JCI
(pt)
MSCI EM
1,100
5,500
950 4,500 3,500 05/13
800 650 05/14
05/15
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
(pt)
5,500
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
JCI
05/16
05/17
MSCI EM
(pt) 1,100
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Local flashes BIRD: Blue Bird bagi dividen Rp152,63 miliar. PT Blue Bird Tbk. akan membagikan dividen tunai kepada pemegang saham perseroan senilai Rp152,63 miliar atau sekitar 30,09% dari total laba perseroan pada tahun buku 2016 yang senilai Rp507,3 miliar. Manajemen perseroan memutuskan untuk tetap membagi dividen tahun ini, kendati laba perseroan pada tahun lalu turun 38,4% dibandingkan tahun 2015. Pada 2015 laba bersih perseroan mencapai Rp824 miliar. (Bisnis Indonesia) BEST: Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate kembangkan proyek mix used tahun depan. PT Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk. mempersiapkan 90 hektare lahan yang diperuntukkan bagi proyek komersial untuk dikembangkan mulai tahun depan. Yoshihiro Kobi, Direktur Utama Bekasi Fajar, mengatakan bahwa lahan tersebut berada di posisi yang sangat strategis, yakni di dekat gerbang tol Cibitung yang merupakan akses utama menuju kawasan industri perseroan, yakni MM2100, Cikarang, Bekasi. (Bisnis Indonesia) WTON: Wijaya Karya Beton kantongi kontrak baru Rp2,3 triliun. PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk., membukukan kontrak baru Rp2,3 triliun dalam periode Januari-Mei 2017 atau sekitar 32,5% dari target Rp7 triliun sepanjang tahun ini. Sekretaris Perusahaan Wika Beton Puji Haryadi mengatakan, kontrak baru perusahaan berasal dari sejumlah proyek seperti pembangkit listrik, jalan tol Gempol-Porong (Jawa Timur), jalan tol (Lampung), pabrik kelapa sawit (Kalimantan Tengah) hingga proyek stasiun MRT (Jakarta). (Bisnis Indonesia) FIRE: Bangun PLTU, Alfa Energi Investama tunggu calon partner. PT Alfa Energi Investama Tbk. (FIRE) masih menunggu calon partner untuk pembangunan pembangkit listrik tenaga uap termasuk kerja sama dengan badan usaha milik daerah. Direktur Utama FIRE Aris Munandar mengatakan, untuk proyek pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) tersebut perseroan masih menunggu calon partner untuk pengembangan ke depan. (Bisnis Indonesia) MASA: Tambah kapasitas produksi, Multistrada Arah Sarana alokasikan US$36 juta. PT Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk. menganggarkan belanja modal sebesar US$36 juta guna melakukan penambahan kapasitas pabrik ban. Direktur Multistrada Uthan M Arief Sadikin mengungkapkan, sejauh ini kapasitas pabrik yang ditambah terutama untuk segmen roda dua. Menurutnya, potensi permintaan domestik bagi perusahaan lebih banyak datang dari segmen sepeda motor tersebut. (Bisnis Indonesia) TIRT: Tirta Mahakam menjajaki ekspor ke Eropa Timur. Perusahaan pengolahan kayu, PT Tirta Mahakam Resources Tbk (TIRT), membidik kawasan Eropa Timur sebagai destinasi ekspor baru. Lewat ekspansi ini, TIRT berniat memperluas pasar ekspor. Firman G. Munthe, Senior Manager Finance & Accounting Division TIRT, menyatakan, pihaknya sedang menjajaki penjualan dengan negara-negara di kawasan Eropa Timur, tapi belum mendapat respons. (Kontan) TBMS: Perbesar kapasitas produksi, Tembaga Mulia Semanan alokasikan US$5 juta. PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk. menggarkan investasi sebesar US$5 juta untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi pabrik. TBMS tengah membidik kenaikan pangsa pasar kawat tembaga dan alumunium di dalam negeri. Hal tersebut seiring dengan proyek besar dari pemerintah terkait pembangunan tenaga listrik. Presiden Direktur TBMS Masao Terauchi mengungkapkan rencana tersebut seiring dengan keinginan perusahaan memperbesar pangsa. (Bisnis Indonesia)
2 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Technical analysis Tasrul
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Tendency to rise IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel. IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek relatif valid yang dimulai sejak 99 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.9192 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.75 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 8.08% atau sekitar 8 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar +/0.46% atau sekitar +/- 26.3 point. sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary Item
Data
Close (June 9, 2017)
Item
Data
5,676.5 (-0.5%)Trading range
Average index performance (%)
5,663 – 5,703
3.94 Target 99 - Daily 0.9192 - Weekly
Period r-squared Volatility (+/-, %)
5,703 5,783
0.46 - Monthly 26.3Stop loss
Volatility (+/-, point)
5,938 5,654
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 5,699 High: 5,705 Low: 5,670 Close: 5,676 Chg. -0.5% Prev. Avg. Price: 5,683.4 Volatility (+) : 0.0033 Volatility (-) : -0.0035 V-Ratio : 0.96
5,909.98 5,863.05
_____ 5,702.5 _____ 5,663.7
5,781.75 5,781.75 5,721.68 5,700.45 5,689.74 5,675.52 5,653.52 5,629.6
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 5,341,280,768.00, Avg.Volume = 5,477,938,688.00
5,477,938,688 5,341,280,768 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 27 2017 9 16 23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar 6
13
20
27
Apr
10
17
25
May 8
15
22
29 Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
3
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas pergerakkan turun indeks mulai tertahan. Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI optimized,W%R optimized dan indikator RSI optimized akan menguji support trendline dengan kecenderungan menguat dengan volume sekitar rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan mulai terlihat.Daily resistance di 5,703 dan daily support di 5,663.Cut loss level di 5,654. Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & RSI optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 5.27
5.26828
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -84.53
-84.5277 ^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 28.47
28.4738 ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 5,699 High: 5,705 Low: 5,670 Close: 5,676 Chg. -0.5% Prev. Avg. Price: 5,683.4 Volatility (+) : 0.0033 Volatility (-) : -0.0035 V-Ratio : 0.96
_____ 5,702.5 _____ 5,663.7
5,721.68 5,689.74 5,675.52 5,629.6
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 5,341,280,768.00, Avg.Volume = 5,477,938,688.00
5,477,938,688 5,341,280,768 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 30 Feb 6 13 20
27 Mar 6
13
20
27
Apr
10
17
25
May
8
15
22
29
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
4 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas level 5,663 sebagai daily support. Indeks ini diperkirakan akan coba bertahan diatas level 5,663 dan untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut IHSG saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Pada Figure 3,4 dan 5 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode. Figure 3. Daily : 5,664 – 5,703
Figure 4. Weekly : 5,631– 5,783
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 5,699 High: 5,705 Prev. Avg. Price: 5,683.4 Volatility (+) : 0.0033 Volatility (-) : -0.0035 V-Ratio : 0.96
Figure 5. Monthly : 5,468 – 5,938 x
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 5,699 High: 5,705 Prev. Avg. Price: 5,683.4 Volatility (+) : 0.0033 Volatility (-) : -0.0035 V-Ratio : 0.96
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 6/9/2017 Open: 5,749 High: 5,766 Prev. Avg. Price: 5,703.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0410 Volatility (-) : -0.0413 V-Ratio : 0.99 _____ 5,937.8
5,703.7 5,675.52 _____ 5,702.5
_____ 5,702.5 5,683.4
5,683.4
5,675.52
_____ 5,663.7
_____ 5,468.4
5,675.52
_____ 5,663.7
^JKSE - Volume = 34,124,564,480.00 ^JKSE - Volume = 5,341,280,768.00
^JKSE - Volume = 5,341,280,768.00
5,341,280,768 22
29
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
5,341,280,768 22
29
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
34,124,564,480 Jul
Oct
2017
Apr
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
5
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Stocks on our focus list Bank Mandiri (BMRI) , Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik dan tembus normal lower band pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.821) selama 97 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.34 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 17.94 % (sekitar 17 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakkan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 1.27 % atau sekitar +/- 154.65 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 150-160 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 6.
Summary Item
Data
Close (June 9, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Corelation Period
Item
Data
12,225 (-0.8%)Trading range 4.91Target 1.41 - Daily 0.90 - Weekly 97 - Monthly
r-squared
12,175 – 12,425 12,400 12,800 13,500
0.821Stop loss 1.27 154.65
Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
12,100
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 6. Daily trend – Uptrend Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 12,300 High: 12,450 Low: 12,200 Close: 12,225 Chg. -0.8% Prev. Avg. Price: 12,291.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0090 Volatility (-) : -0.0102 V-Ratio : 0.88
12,663.2
_____ 12,402.4
_____ 12,166.1
12,439.1 12,385.7 12,225 12,108.2 12,045.6
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BMRI.JK - Volume = 8,063,500.00, Avg.Volume = 11,429,780.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 27 2017 9 16 23
11,429,780 8,063,500 30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar
13
20
27
Apr
10
17
25
May 8
15
22
29 Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
6 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 7, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI , indicator W%R Optimized dan RSI Optimized sudah berada sekitar support trendline. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi koreksi mulai terbatas dengan kecenderungan menguat.Daily resistance terdekat di 12,400 – 1,425 . Daily support terdekat di 12,175. Cut loss level di 12,100.
Figure 7. Weekly, MFI optimized,W%R optimized & RSI optimized BMRI.JK - MFI Smoothed = 2.76
2.76395 BMRI.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -89.63
-89.6291 BMRI.JK - RSI Smoothed = 8.23
8.23079 Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 12,300 High: 12,450 Low: 12,200 Close: 12,225 Chg. -0.8% Prev. Avg. Price: 12,291.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0090 Volatility (-) : -0.0102 V-Ratio : 0.88 _____ 12,402.4 _____ 12,166.1
12,439.1 12,225 12,051.1
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 BMRI.JK - Volume = 8,063,500.00, Avg.Volume = 11,429,780.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2017
11,429,780 8,063,500 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
7
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Pada Figure 8,9 dan 10 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 8. Daily : 12,175 – 12,400
Figure 9. Weekly : 12,100 – 12,800
Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 12,300 Prev. Avg. Price: 12,291.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0090 Volatility (-) : -0.0102 V-Ratio : 0.88
Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Weekly - 6/9/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 12,400.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0323 Volatility (-) : -0.0248 V-Ratio : 1.30
Figure 10. Monthly : 11,450 – 13,500 Bank Mandiri (Pe [ BMRI.JK ] - Monthly - 6/9/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 12,425.0 Volatility (+) : 0.0867 Volatility (-) : -0.0777 V-Ratio : 1.12
_____ 13,501.7 _____ 12,800.9
12,400
_____ 12,402.4 12,191.7
12,425.0 12,225
12,225 _____ 12,091.9
12,225 _____ 12,166.1
_____ 11,460.1
BMRI.JK - Volume = 72,106,200.00 BMRI.JK - Volume = 57,148,900.00
BMRI.JK - Volume = 8,063,500.00
57,148,900
8,063,500 22
29
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
72,106,200 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Jul
Oct
2017
Apr
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
8 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) , Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel . Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0,892) selama 73 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.6 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 10.88 % (sekitar 8 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 1.33 % atau sekitar +/- 190.56 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar190 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 11.
Summary Item
Data
Close (June 9, 2017)
Item
Data 14,275–14,700
14,375 (-1.9%)Trading range
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Corelation Period
11.04Target 1.34 - Daily 0.90 - Weekly 73 - Monthly
14,550 14,925 15,825
r-squared
0.891 Stop loss
13,950
Volatility (+/-, %)
1.33 190.56
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Daily trend – Uptrend Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 14,500 High: 14,550 Low: 14,300 Close: 14,375 Chg. -1.9% Prev. Avg. Price: 14,408.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0111 Volatility (-) : -0.0093 V-Ratio : 1.20
15,172.3
_____ 14,568.6 _____ 14,274.2
14,699.5 14,667.2 14,375 14,162.2 13,950.4
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 BBRI.JK - Volume = 29,006,900.00, Avg.Volume = 18,799,240.00
29,006,900 18,799,240 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 6 13 20 27 Mar 6
13
20
27
Apr
10
17
25
May
8
15
22
29
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
9
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 12, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized, W%R Optimized dan W%R Optimized akan menguji support trendline dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi koreksi sudah terbatas.Daily resistance di 14,700 Weekly support saat ini di 14,275. Cut loss level di 13,950.
Figure 12. Daily, MFI optimized ,W%R optimized & RSI optimized BBRI.JK - MFI Smoothed = 18.93
18.9332 BBRI.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -85.20
-85.2009 BBRI.JK - RSI Smoothed = 25.96
25.9622 Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 14,500 High: 14,550 Low: 14,300 Close: 14,375 Chg. -1.9% Prev. Avg. Price: 14,408.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0111 Volatility (-) : -0.0093 V-Ratio : 1.20
_____ 14,568.6 _____ 14,274.2
14,699.5 14,375 13,950.4
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BBRI.JK - Volume = 29,006,900.00, Avg.Volume = 18,799,240.00
29,006,900 18,799,240 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2017
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
10 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Pada Figure 13,14 dan 15 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 13. Daily : 14,275 – 14,550
Figure 14. Weekly : 14,200 – 14,925 x
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 14,500 Prev. Avg. Price: 14,408.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0111 Volatility (-) : -0.0093 V-Ratio : 1.20
Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Weekly - 6/9/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 14,566.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0245 Volatility (-) : -0.0256 V-Ratio : 0.96
Figure 15. Monthly : 13,525 – 15,825 Bank Rakyat Indo [ BBRI.JK ] - Monthly - 6/9/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 14,566.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0872 Volatility (-) : -0.0707 V-Ratio : 1.23 _____ 15,836.5
_____ 14,923.4
14,566.7 14,375 _____ 14,193.9
14,566.7
_____ 14,568.6
14,375 14,408.3 14,375 _____ 13,536.7
_____ 14,274.2
BBRI.JK - Volume = 111,749,200.00 BBRI.JK - Volume = 93,996,200.00
BBRI.JK - Volume = 29,006,900.00 29,006,900
93,996,200 111,749,200 22
29
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Jul
Oct
2017
Apr
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June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.844 selama 41 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.42 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 15.58 % (sekitar 6 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/-1.07 atau sekitar +/- 90.89 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 90 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 16.
Summary Item
Data
Close (June 9, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta)
Item
Data
8,500 (-1.2%)Normal trading range 2.81 Target 0.66 - Daily
Corelation r-squared
0.72 - Weekly 41 - Monthly 0.844Stop loss
Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
1.07 90.89
Period
8,475-8,725 8,600 8,925 9,400 8,450
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 16. Daily Trend – Uptrend Indofood Sukses [ INDF.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 8,600 High: 8,600 Low: 8,450 Close: 8,500 Chg. -1.2% Prev. Avg. Price: 8,516.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0086 Volatility (-) : -0.0093 V-Ratio : 0.92
9,322.96
9,092.91 8,909.06 8,909.06 8,725.21 8,674.59 _____ 8,590.0
8,527.8 8,500 8,495.16
_____ 8,437.1 8,371.1
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 INDF.JK - Volume = 27,551,100.00, Avg.Volume = 24,995,766.00
27,551,100 24,995,766
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 13 20 27
Apr
10
17
25
May
8
15
22
29
Jun
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June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun mulai terbatas . Pada Figure 17, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized ,W%R Optimized dan RSI Optimized masih cenderung turun dalam kisaran terbatas dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi koreksi makin terbatas. Perkiraan daily resistance terdekat ke 8,725. Daily support terdekat di 8,450 yang sekaligus sebagai cut loss level.
Figure 17. Weekly MFI Optimized , W%R Optimized & RSI Optimized INDF.JK - MFI Smoothed = 12.48
12.4837 INDF.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -80.75
-80.7483 INDF.JK - RSI Smoothed = 40.23
40.2268
Indofood Sukses [ INDF.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 8,600 High: 8,600 Low: 8,450 Close: 8,500 Chg. -1.2% Prev. Avg. Price: 8,516.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0086 Volatility (-) : -0.0093 V-Ratio : 0.92 _____ 8,590.0 _____ 8,437.1
8,674.59 8,527.8 8,500 8,371.17
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDF.JK - Volume = 27,551,100.00, Avg.Volume = 24,995,766.00
27,551,100 24,995,766 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
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June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Pada Figure 18,19 dan 20 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode. Figure 18. Daily : 8,450 – 8,600
Figure 19. Weekly : 8,400 – 8,925
Indofood Sukses [ INDF.JK ] - Daily - 6/9/2017 Open: 8,600 Prev. Avg. Price: 8,516.7 Volatility (+) : 0.0086 Volatility (-) : -0.0093 V-Ratio : 0.92
Figure 20. Monthly : 8,025 – 9,400
Indofood Sukses [ INDF.JK ] - Weekly - 6/9/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 8,633.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0351 Volatility (-) : -0.0277 V-Ratio : 1.27 _____ 8,936.6
Indofood Sukses [ INDF.JK ] - Monthly - 6/9/2017 Open: Prev. Avg. Price: 8,633.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0899 Volatility (-) : -0.0695 V-Ratio : 1.29 _____ 9,409.8
8,633.3 8,633.3 8,500 _____ 8,590.0
8,500
_____ 8,394.4 8,516.7 _____ 8,033.6
8,500 _____ 8,437.1
INDF.JK - Volume = 94,481,904.00 INDF.JK - Volume = 87,083,696.00
INDF.JK - Volume = 27,551,100.00
87,083,696
27,551,100
94,481,904 22
29
Jun
Feb
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Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Correlation Period r-squared Volatility (+/-%) Volatility (+/- point or Rp)
Buy Sell BoW SoS Trading Buy Trading Sell
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
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Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Jul
Oct
2017
Apr
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: Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
: Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area. : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area. : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekatisupport, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area. : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area. : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara. : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
analyzed by : Tasrul,
[email protected], +62-21- 5151140
14 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt)
Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
JCI (L)
(IDR)
USD/IDR (R)
(%, %p)
Absolute
20
6,000 13,700
5,800
Relative 17.1
16 12
5,600 13,500
8
5,400 4 0.0
5,200
13,300
5,000
0 -0.5 -0.4
-1.2 -1.2
1D
1W
-4
4,800
13,100 3/13
4/10
5/8
-8
6/5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)
Chart 24. Energy price
(USDmn) 1,000
1 Day
(D-3M=100) 115
5 Days
-1.6
CPO
-6.5 1Y
1M
WTI
Coal
872 110
800
105
600
100 322
400 251
95
200
74
90
18 0 -10 -200
-77
-104
85
-34 -38 -151
-158
80 75
-400 Korea
Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines
India
Note: The latest figure for India are June 8th, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Copper
4/10
5/8
6/5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100)
3/13
Chart 26. Precious metal price Nickel
Tin
110
(D-3M=100)
Silver
Gold
Platinum
115
105 110 100 105
95 90
100
85 95 80 90
75 3/13
4/10
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
5/8
6/5
3/13
4/10
5/8
6/5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
15
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Table. Key valuation metrics Price
Market Cap
(IDR)
(IDRbn)
1D
1W
1M
1Y
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
5,676
6,237,431
-0.5
-1.2
-0.4
16.4
16.0
13.7
2.4
2.2
18.5
18.4
BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN
17,700 12,225 14,375 6,400 2,560
436,394 285,250 354,619 119,351 27,110
-1.3 -0.8 -1.9 -0.8 2.0
0.9 -3.0 -2.5 -0.8 3.6
-1.7 1.9 2.7 -3.8 4.5
36.2 31.8 38.6 34.2 54.2
18.5 19.6 10.9 9.1 13.3
19.1 14.5 12.6 9.1 12.2
3.4 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.0
3.4 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.2
20.4 10.3 20.2 13.9 7.6
18.7 12.4 18.1 14.3 10.4
HMSP GGRM ICBP INDF KLBF UNVR
3,840 75,500 8,400 8,500 1,550 47,550
446,661 145,269 97,960 74,634 72,656 362,807
-0.8 0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 0.0
-0.3 1.3 -3.4 -3.7 0.0 1.4
0.8 6.0 -2.6 0.3 -0.3 2.9
-1.9 10.8 2.4 18.1 8.4 9.9
34.8 18.4 27.8 18.3 30.9 46.3
32.9 19.5 24.8 16.7 28.6 49.9
13.0 3.1 5.7 2.4 6.0 62.9
12.5 3.3 4.9 2.3 5.5 65.6
38.6 17.3 21.8 14.7 20.6 134.1
38.5 17.8 21.4 15.0 19.1 140.7
AALI LSIP SSMS
14,225 1,405 1,605
27,379 9,586 15,288
-0.2 -0.7 -1.5
-0.4 -6.3 -8.3
-2.1 -2.1 -5.3
-8.5 -9.4 -13.5
14.8 20.0 22.5
14.0 11.9 20.8
1.9 1.6 3.9
1.6 1.2 3.9
14.1 7.9 18.3
11.2 10.0 16.2
EXCL JSMR PGAS TBIG TLKM SOCI GIAA
3,350 5,125 2,340 6,200 4,330 306 358
35,805 37,197 56,725 28,095 436,464 2,160 9,267
2.1 0.5 -1.7 2.1 0.7 -1.9 -1.6
10.2 -1.4 -2.9 3.8 -1.1 -3.2 0.0
7.4 7.2 -3.3 9.3 -0.2 -11.6 2.3
-9.7 -4.0 -5.6 -5.7 15.4 -30.5 -25.4
60.8 15.6 15.3 17.4 20.3 8.2 31.7
94.0 19.7 11.0 23.1 18.7 4.6 18.4
1.2 2.3 1.5 14.3 4.7 0.6 2.6
1.6 2.5 1.3 10.2 4.5 N/A 2.3
2.1 15.7 9.8 83.6 24.3 7.4 8.6
1.3 13.0 12.5 53.0 24.2 10.1 12.8
SMGR CPIN INTP JPFA
9,375 3,030 17,900 1,295
55,608 49,686 65,894 14,777
3.9 -1.3 0.6 0.0
0.5 -2.9 -3.2 3.2
7.1 -1.3 7.2 6.6
4.2 -16.5 9.1 22.7
12.0 22.6 14.6 7.7
15.4 17.2 20.5 8.6
1.9 3.6 2.2 1.9
1.8 3.0 2.4 1.5
16.3 16.5 15.5 28.6
12.0 19.1 11.6 18.6
ITMG ADRO ANTM INCO PTBA
17,175 1,555 715 1,870 11,250
19,406 49,738 17,182 18,581 25,921
-1.6 -1.3 0.0 0.3 0.4
10.6 5.8 -5.9 -0.5 4.2
-1.4 0.3 13.5 -3.1 -1.1
94.6 68.1 -2.1 1.4 41.1
10.4 12.0 298.3 N/A 13.1
7.1 9.0 62.4 35.1 8.2
1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.5
1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 2.0
15.0 11.1 0.4 0.1 20.5
20.9 11.6 2.5 1.7 25.6
UNTR AKRA BMTR LPPF MNCN MPPA SCMA SILO
26,500 6,450 620 14,600 1,900 720 2,740 12,300
98,849 25,801 8,803 42,602 27,125 3,872 40,063 15,998
-2.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 -2.6 -1.4 3.8 5.1
-0.2 -3.7 -4.6 -3.9 0.8 -7.1 -2.1 11.8
3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -3.2 -5.9 -15.8 -4.5 -9.2
87.3 6.2 -42.1 -22.8 -14.4 -44.0 -15.2 20.2
15.8 23.5 41.8 21.9 17.7 211.4 27.2 150.3
14.8 22.2 N/A 19.1 15.5 26.3 22.3 118.4
1.9 3.5 0.9 23.8 2.7 3.3 11.9 4.5
2.2 3.4 N/A 14.2 2.5 1.6 9.8 5.0
12.7 15.7 2.0 136.4 15.4 1.6 45.7 3.5
15.4 15.6 N/A 86.2 16.8 4.4 46.5 4.2
BSDE ADHI ASRI CTRA LPKR PTPP PWON SMRA WIKA WSKT
1,800 2,180 322 1,090 635 3,070 605 1,235 2,210 2,210
34,644 7,763 6,327 20,231 14,654 19,034 29,137 17,817 19,824 29,998
0.0 0.5 -2.4 -1.8 0.8 -0.3 -2.4 0.8 0.0 -1.8
0.0 -5.6 -1.2 -6.0 -7.3 -2.5 -2.4 -5.0 -3.1 -6.0
-1.4 -0.9 -5.8 -7.2 -22.6 5.9 -8.3 -11.8 -1.3 -2.6
-2.7 -21.3 -19.1 -16.9 -37.1 -15.4 13.1 -24.0 -11.6 -10.9
18.8 23.6 13.6 19.9 18.6 23.1 16.3 61.3 14.4 17.3
14.2 12.8 7.6 16.6 13.9 13.9 14.9 44.4 15.5 12.2
1.6 1.4 1.0 2.2 0.9 2.4 3.1 3.1 1.8 3.1
1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.6 1.5 1.9
9.1 5.9 7.5 9.8 5.0 14.4 21.0 5.1 12.9 16.6
10.8 10.1 11.2 10.5 5.3 13.7 19.3 6.2 10.5 17.1
ASII
8,650
350,183
-2.0
-3.9
-0.6
25.8
22.1
17.7
3.0
2.8
14.2
16.6
Company Name
Ticker
Jakarta Composite Index FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia Bank Mandiri Persero Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Bank Tabungan Negara Persero
JCI
CONSUMER HM Sampoerna Gudang Garam Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur Kalbe Farma Unilever Indonesia AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari PP London Sumatera Indonesia Sawit Sumbermas Sarana INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata Jasa Marga Perusahaan Gas Negara Tower Bersama Infrastructure Telekomunikasi Indonesia Soechi Lines Garuda Indonesia BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Japfa Comfeed Indonesia MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah Adaro Energy Aneka Tambang Vale Indonesia Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam TRADE United Tractors AKR Corporindo Global Mediacom Matahari Department Store Media Nusantara Citra Matahari Putra Prima Surya Citra Media Siloam International Hospital PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai Adhi Karya Alam Sutera Realty Ciputra Development Lippo Karawaci Pembangunan Perumahan Pakuwon Jati Summarecon Agung Wijaya Karya Waskita Karya MISCELLANEOUS Astra International
Price Performance (%)
P/E(X)*
P/B(X)*
ROE(%)*
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
16 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
June 12, 2017 Embun Pagi
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name
Index
Agricultural Mining Basic-Industry Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Property & Construction Infrastructure Finance Trade Composite
Chg (%)
1,765.8 1,393.0 603.7 1,456.4 2,508.3 480.0 1,133.5 915.2 903.5 5,675.5
Ticker -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -1.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -1.0 -0.1 -0.5
Price
SILO IJ SMGR IJ SCMA IJ BUMI IJ BBMD IJ MEGA IJ ACES IJ RALS IJ RMBA IJ EXCL IJ
Market Cap (IDRbn) 12300 9375 2740 340 1480 3000 1000 1300 450 3350
Chg (%)
15,998 55,608 40,063 12,453 6,053 20,891 17,150 9,225 16,381 35,805
5.13 3.88 3.79 3.66 3.5 3.45 3.09 2.36 2.3 2.13
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers
Top 5 lagging movers
Name
Chg (%)
TLKM IJ BBCA IJ UNVR IJ BJBR IJ ISAT IJ
Close 1.6 0.7 0.7 5.4 3.3
Name 3,870 17,925 47,550 2,350 6,300
Chg (%)
ASII IJ ASII IJ ICBP IJ INDF IJ TLKM IJ
Close -1.8 -0.8 -2.9 -3.6 -0.5
14,650 8,825 8,475 8,600 4,300
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar Time All Day 6:50am 6:50am 12th-16th 1:00pm 12th-16th 12th-16th 3:00pm 3:30pm
Currency AUD JPY JPY CNY JPY CNY CNY EUR AUD
Detail Bank Holiday Core Machinery Orders m/m PPI y/y Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y M2 Money Supply y/y New Loans Italian Industrial Production m/m RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
Forecast
Previous 1.4% 2.1% -0.1% 34.7% 10.5% 1100B 0.4%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
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