PT. United Tractors, Tbk (UNTR) August 12th 2015
Hold Current Pric e (Rp)
19, 500
2016E P/E
10. 6
Target Pric e (Rp)
21, 000
2016E P/E
11. 4
Current JCI JKSE
4, 770
Trade, Heavy Equipment , Mining Bloomberg tic ker
UNTR IJ
Reuters tic ker
UNTR JK
Market Cap (tn Rp)
78.3
Market Cap (bn $)
5.8
USDIDR
13,600
Free float (%)
40
52 week High (Rp)
24,400
52 week Low (Rp)
16,425
Daily Av erage Vol ('000 shares)
35,721
1H 2015 Financial Performance Revenue fell 9.4% to Rp25.95 trillion in the 1st semester of 2015 from Rp27.53 trillion in the same period last year. However, several efficiency measures that the company already applied since the beginning of this year has led to declining costs and improving gross profit margin. With the addition of significant contribution from foreign exchange gains, net income managed to grew 3.6% year-onyear to Rp3.4 trillion from Rp3.28 trillion. Latest corporate action In order to diversify from coal related business, the company has acquired 75.5% shares of PT Sumbawa Jutaraya, a gold mining company with 10 hectares of concession area. UNTR has also increase its ownership in PT Acset Indonusa Tbk (ACST) to 50.1%, that is expected to increase the contribution from construction service business in the future. Rating and valuation We are maintaining a Hold rating with lower target price at Rp21,000 per share, implying 11.4x of 2016E P/E Ratio. Currently UNTR’s share price is trading at 10.6x of 2016E P/E Ratio. Stronger US Dollar exchange rate is a benefit for the company, however its high exposure to coal related business could be a negative sentiment considering the ongoing decline of the commodity’s price.
Major Shareholders (%): PT Astra International Tbk
59.5
Others and public
40.5
Relat ive performanc e vs JCI JKSE: JCI JKSE
UNTR
10.0%
Opportunities, challenges, risks to our estimates Declining Rupiah exchange rate has benefited the company, considering most of its cash-in-flows and financial assets are in US Dollars. According to the company’s financial report, for every 10% of change in USDIDR exchange rate will affect Rp442.5 bn of change in profit after tax. This could directly translated as Rp44.25 bn of change in profit after tax for every 1% of change in USDIDR exchange rate.
5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0%
However, we see the ongoing volatility in Coal price as the primary threat for the company to increase sales value in the future. We expect UNTR still have more rooms for further efficiency measures, in order to increase profit margins. (bn Rp)
2014
Revenue
53,142
Revenue growt h Gross Profit Gross Profit m argin Net Profit
Analysts: Robertus Yanuar Hardy
[email protected] 021 – 5790 5455 ext 204 Shanti Dwi Jayanti (Research Associate)
[email protected]
4.2%
2015E 48,401 -8.9%
2016E 48,523
1H 2014
1H 2015
27,533
24,949
0.3%
-9. 4%
12,070
11,098
11,490
5,736
5,658
22.7%
22.9%
23.7%
20.8%
22.7%
5,370
6,550
6,858
3,288
3,406
Net profit m argin
10.1%
13.5%
14.1%
11.9%
13.7%
Net profit growt h
11.1%
22.0%
4.7%
3.6%
Tot al Debt
1,624
1,260
1,145
1,290
Tot al Cash
10,060
11,228
12,594
11,015
Tot al Asset s
60,292
66,872
72,273
63,820
Ret urn on Asset Tot al Equit ies Ret urn on Equit y
8.9% 38,577 13.9%
9.8% 43,569 15.0%
9.5% 48,173
40,697
14.2%
your reliable partner | 1 www.reliance-securities.com, www.relitrade.com | Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this document
Other Stories Sales & Produc t ion Figures Const ruc t ion Mac hinery: Komatsu UD Truc ks Sc ania Total sales (units) Mining Cont rac t ing: Coal Produc tion (mn tons) Ov erburden Remov al (mn bcm) Mining: Coal Sales (mntons)
6M 2014 6M 2015 Chg (%) 2,207 94 242 2,543
1,375 53 188 1,616
-37. 7% -43. 6% -22. 3% -36. 5%
56.4 403.9
51.6 372.3
-8. 5% -7. 8%
3.43
2.81
-18. 1%
Construction Machinery sales UNTR is targeting approximately 3,000 units of construction machinery sales this year, or a 13.5% decrease from last year’s achievement of 3,470 units. The construction machinery market has decreased 40% for the company in the last 2 years, where UNTR managed to sell 5,013 units in 2013. However we expect there will be a significant increase from the sales of Scania busses to the city government of Jakarta, to be used as Transjakarta’s fleet. Possible foreign exchange gain The company is using Rp13,332 as an assumption of USDIDR exchange rate in the 1H 2015 financial report. This could directly translated to a possible significant increase in profit after tax if we expect USDIDR to close higher at the end of this year. Currently Rupiah is in the range of 13,600 – 13,800 per US$1, or approximately 2% - 3.5% higher.
Segment Contribution Mining Contracting business segment with PT. Pamapersada Nusantara as its operator is currently the largest contributor to the company’s total revenue with 59% of contribution, followed by Construction Machinery 29%, Mining 9%, and Construction Contractor 2%.
Sources: Investor bulletins, Company’s financial and sales reports.
All business segment, except the newly acquired Construction Contractor, has recorded a declining revenue in the 1st semester of 2015, compare to the same period last year. However, the 11% increase of USDIDR exchange rate has led to improving profit margins, so net profit managed to grew 4% (rounded from 3.6%) year-on-year.
your reliable partner | 2 www.reliance-securities.com, www.relitrade.com | Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this document
Past financial performance and future estimates
Inc ome St at ement
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
51,012
53,142
48,401
48,523
48,765
Asset s
Gross Profit
9,517
12,070
11,098
11,490
11,791
Cash and equiv alents
EBT
6,587
6,622
8,936
9,337
9,641
Trade rec eiv ables
Net Inc ome
4,834
5,370
6,550
6,858
EPS (Rp full amount)
1,296
1,440
1,756
1,839
(bn Rp) Rev enue
(bn Rp)
Current Pric e
Rev enue growth
2014
2015E
2016E
2016E
2017E
12,533
14,182
11,815
13,113
12,810
13,450
14,123
7,081
Non-trade / other rec eiv ables 326
474
913
959
1,006
1,898
Inv entories
6,176
7,770
7,839
8,231
8,642
Prepaid taxes
982
1,361
1,342
1,409
1,479
Adv anc es & prepaids
279
252
488
513
538
Other inv estments
300
550
1,584
1,663
1,746
Tot al c urrent asset s
11.4 2013
2015E 11,228
21,000
P/E
2014 10,060
10.6
Target Pric e
2013 7,936
19,500
P/E
Rat ios & Margins:
Balanc e Sheet
2017E
27, 814
33, 580
36, 203
38, 757
41, 718
Restric ted c ash
70
233
250
262
275
Adv anc es
32
18
25
27
28
433
447
453
476
499
Inv estment in assc % joints
-8.8%
4.2%
-8.9%
0.3%
656
1,108
1,597
1,677
1,761
18.7%
22.7%
22.9%
23.7%
24.2% Fixed assets
14,574
13,625
15,435
17,520
19,379
Net Profit margin
9.5%
10.1%
13.5%
14.1%
14.5% Mining properties
12,027
9,149
9,848
10,340
10,857
Net Profit growth
-16.4%
11.1%
22.0%
4.7%
3.3% Inv estment property
51
51
52
55
58
8.4%
8.9%
9.8%
9.5%
9.1% Dfrd explrtn&dev lpmnt expndtrs 228
364
504
529
556
Gross Profit margin
ROA
0.5% Other inv estments
ROE
13.6%
13.9%
15.0%
14.2%
13.4% Deferred c harges
227
209
279
293
308
Total Debt
2,677
1,624
1,260
1,145
1,043
763
1,015
1,177
1,236
1,298
Cash
7,936
10,060
11,228
12,533
14,182
DPS (as paid)
585
535
591
716
745
DPR (as paid)
37.8%
41.3%
41.0%
40.8%
Cash Flow s
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
77, 893
12,996
659
790
849
913
3,034
Taxes pay able
323
758
772
838
909
9,051
9,210
Ac c ruals
1,132
1,008
1,531
1,645
1,769
(2,203)
(2,672)
(2,780) Customer deposits
199
125
422
460
502
(243)
(114)
(102) Defered rev enue
216
279
287
310
334
(439)
(154)
(86)
(77) Short-term employ ee benefit
152
181
496
536
578
(67)
(122)
-
-
Short-term bank loan
33
23
66
71
76
64
69
Current portion of LT Debts 1,608
1,297
1,130
1,017
915
440
Tot al c urrent liabilit ies 14, 561
7,081
Deprec iation
3,377
2,685
3,095
3,064
Cash flow from operat ion
9,923
8,506
9,722
Div idend
(2,182)
(1,996)
Loans
(1,073)
(986)
(9) (430)
66 645
418
Liabilit ies
(905) Trade pay ables
17, 865
18, 406
18, 994
2,059
2,213
2,379
56
74
102
111
119
(5,150)
(4,892) Long-term employ ee benefit 1,189
1,290
1,497
1,617
1,747
(5,357)
(5,109) Long-term debt
2,490
1,319
924
832
749
799
790
856
920
989
7,153
5,417
5,439
5,693
5,983
21, 713
21, 715
23, 304
24, 100
24, 978
1H 2014
1H 2015
27,533
24,949
-9. 4%
Gross Profit
5,736
5,658
-1. 4%
EBT
4,336
4,542
4. 7%
Net Inc ome
3,288
3,406
3. 6%
881
913
3. 6%
(2,390)
(339)
(716)
(1,529)
(182)
Capex
(2,754)
(1,736)
(4,905)
Cash flow from invest ing
(3,499)
(2,440)
(6,541)
(2,450) Deferred tax liabilities (191) Prov ision
Other LT financ ial liabs Share Capital Additional paid in c apital Retained earnings Appropriated Unappropriated Inv estment fair v alue reserv e Exc hange differenc e Differenc e due to ac quisition Sub Tot al Equit y Non c ontrolling interest Tot al Equit y
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
933
933
933
933
933
9,704
9,704
9,704
9,704
9,704
21,062
24,420
28,767
32,954
37,255
187
187
187
187
187
20,876
24,234
28,581
32,767
37,068
152
173
140
152
166
1,723
1,780
2,210
2,387
2,578
(348) 33, 220
(348) 36, 660
(348) 41, 404
2017E
1,945
(2,012)
2013
2016E
16, 298
(3,943)
Equit y
2015E
2,619
(2,483)
Inv estments & other assets
72, 273
306
6,858
669
66, 872
Non-trade pay ables
6,550
Cash flow from financ ing
60, 292
57, 362
12,679
5,370
Changes in equity
126 36, 175
12,370
4,834
159
120 33, 516
11,965
Net Inc ome
Other LT Liabilities
114 30, 669
2014
76
(120)
102 26, 712
2013
451
Otther Borrowings
81
Tot al non-c urrent asset s29, 548
10,582
(872)
2017E
1,713
52
Non trade rec eiv ables
40.5% Tot al Asset s
Changes in working c apital
Leases
Deferred tax assets
(348) 45, 780
Total non-c urrent liabilities Tot al Liabilit ies
1Q 2015 Performanc e (Rp bn) Rev enue
(348) EPS (Rp full amount)
Change
50, 286
2,429
1,917
2,165
2,393
2,629
35, 649
38, 577
43, 569
48, 173
52, 915
Source: Company's financial report, Reliance research estimates
your reliable partner | 3 www.reliance-securities.com, www.relitrade.com | Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this document
Contact Us RESEARCH DIVISION
HEAD OFFICE
Reliance Building Jl. Pluit Kencana No. 15A, Pluit Penjaringan Jakarta 14450 T +62 21 661 7768 F +62 21 661 9884
Jasa Adhi Mulya
Research Analyst
[email protected]
Robertus Yanuar Hardy
Research Analyst
[email protected]
Aji Setiawan
Associate Research Analyst
[email protected]
Alan Milgerry
Associate Research Analyst
[email protected]
Shanti Dwi Jayanti
Associate Research Analyst
[email protected]
Lanjar Nafi Taulat I
Technical Research Analyst
[email protected]
BRANCE OFFICE
Jakarta- Pluit Jl. Pluit Kencana No. 15A Pluit Penjaringan Jakarta 14450 T +62 21 661 7768 F +62 21 661 9884
Bandung Jl.Cisangkuy No.58 Bandung 40115 T +62 22 721 8200 F +62 22 721 9255
Surabaya - Gubeng Jl. Bangka No. 22 Surabaya 60281 T +62 31 501 1128 F +62 31 503 3196
Makassar Jl. Boto Lempangan No. 34 J Makassar 90113 T +62 411 3632388 F +62 411 3614634
Jakarta - Sudirman Menara Batavia 27th floor Jl. KH. Mas Mansyur Kav 126 Jakarta 10220 T +62 21 5790 5455 F +62 21 5795 0728
Tasikmalaya Ruko Tasik Indah Plaza No.21 Jl. KHZ Mustofa No. 345 Tasikmalaya 46121 T +62 265 345000 F +62 265 345003
Surabaya – Diponegoro Jl. Diponegoro 141-143 Surabaya 60264 T +62 31 567 0388 F +62 31 561 0528
Pekanbaru Jl. Sumatera No. 9, Simpang Empat, Pekanbaru - Riau 28000 T +62 761 7894368 F +62 761 7894370
Jakarta – Kebon Jeruk Plaza Kebon Jeruk Jl.Raya Perjuangan Blok A/2 Jakarta 11530 T +62 21 532 4074 F +62 21 536 2157
Yogyakarta Jl. Juadi No. 1 Kotabaru Yogyakarta 55224 T +62 274 550 123 F +62 274 551 121
Bali - Denpasar Dewata Square Blok A3 Jl. Letda Tantular Renon Denpasar 802361 T +62 361 225099 F +62 361 245099
Medan Jl. Teuku Amir Hamzah No.26 T +62 61 6638592 F +62 61 6638023
BSD Jl. Pahlawan Seribu Ruko BSD Sektor 7 Blok RK kav. 9 Tangerang 15310 T +62 21 5387495 F +62 21 5387494
Surakarta Jl. Slamet Riyadi 330A Solo 57145 T +62 271 736599 F +62 271 733478
Pontianak Jl. MT Haryono No. 6 Pontianak 78121 T +62 561 575674 F +62 561 575670
Bali - Ubud Jl. Suweta 19, Ubud Gianyar, Bali 80571 T +62 361 970692
Jakarta – Centro Ruko Centro Residence Kav. 4-5 Tower C Lt. 1 No. 26-29 Jl. Macan, Daan Mogot Jakarta 14450 T +62 21 56945227 F +62 21 56945226
Malang Jl. Guntur No. 19 Malang 65112 T +62 341 347 611 F +62 341 347 615
Balikpapan Ruko Bukit Damai Indah Blok I, No. 3, Rt.34 Jl. MT. Haryono, Gunung Bahagia, Balikpapan Selatan 76114 T +62 542 746313-16 F +62 542 746317
your reliable partner | 4 www.reliance-securities.com, www.relitrade.com | Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this document
Contact Us IDX CORNER & INVESTMENT GALLERY
UPN “Veteran” Jakarta Jl. RS Fatmawati, Pondok Labu Jakarta 12450 T +62 21 7656971 ext. 197 F +62 21 7656971 ext. 138
STIE "AUB" Surakarta Jl. Mr. Sartono 97, Cengklik Nusukan, Surakarta 57135 T +62 271 854803 F +62 271 853084
Universitas Brawijaya Jl. Veteran Malang 65145 T +62 341 551611 / 575777 F +62 341 565420
Politeknik Kediri Jl. Mayor Bismo No. 27 Kediri 64121 T +62 354 683128 F +62 354 683128
President University Resto Plaza 1F - Jababeka Education Park Jl. Ki Hajar Dewantara Raya Cikarang - Bekasi 17550 T +62 21 89106030
Universitas Surabaya Jl. Raya Kalirungkut Surabaya 60293 T +62 31 298 1203 F +62 31 298 1204
STIE Malangkucecwara Jl. Terusan Candi Kalasan Malang 65142 T +62 341 491813 F +62 341 495619
Sekolah Tinggi Manajemen Informatika dan Teknik Komputer Bali Jalan Puputan No. 86, Renon, Denpasar Telp. +62361 244445 Faks. +62361 264773
Universitas Siliwangi Tasikmalaya Jl. Siliwangi No. 24 Tasikmalaya 46151 T +62 265 323685 F +62 265 323534
Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik Jl. Sumatra 101 GKB Gresik 61121 T +62 31 395 1414 F +62 31 395 2585
Universitas Jember Jl. Jawa No. 17 Jember 68121 T +62 331 330732 F +62 331 326419
UPN "Veteran" Yogyakarta Jl. Babarsari 2, Tambak Bayan Yogyakarta T +62 274 485268 F +62 274 487147
Universitas Negeri Malang Jl. Surabaya No. 6 Malang 65145 T +62 341 585914 F +62 341 552888
STIESIA Surabaya Jl. Menur Pumpungan 30 Surabaya T +62 31 5947505 F +62 31 5932218
Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo Jl. Majapahit 866B Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur T +62 31 8945444 F +62 31 8949333
Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang Jl. Raya Tlogomas 246 Malang 65144 T +62 341 464318-9 F +62 341 460782
Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Banyuwangi Jl. Adi Sucipto 26 Banyuwangi, Jawa Timur T +62 333 419613 F +62 333 419163
Universitas Tanjungpura Pontianak Jl. Jendral Ahmad Yani Pontianak 78124 T +62 561 743465 F +62 561 766840
Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul „Ulum Gd. Pasca Sarjana UNIPDU Komplek PP Darul ‘Ulum Peterongan, Jombang Jawa Timur Telp. 0321-873655 Fax. 0321-875771
Universitas Muhammadiyah Pontianak Fakultas Ekonomi UM Pontianak Jl. Ahmad Yani, No. 111, Pontianak 78124 Telp. +62561 743465 Faks. +62561 766840 Universitas Negeri Makassar Fakultas Ekonomi Gedung BT Lt.2 Jl. A.P. Pettarani, Kampus UNM, Gunungsari Baru Makassar 90222 T +62 411 889464 / 881244 F +62 411 887604
Disclaimer: Information, opinions and recommendations contained in this document are presented by PT Reliance Securities Tbk. from sources that are considered reliable and dependable. This document is not an offer, invitation or any kind of representations to decide to buy or sell stock. Investment decisions taken based on this document is not the responsibility of PT Reliance Securities Tbk. PT Reliance Securities Tbk. reserves the right to change the contents of this document at any time without prior notice.
your reliable partner | 5 www.reliance-securities.com, www.relitrade.com | Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this document
