Duurzaam en Economie; Gaat dat samen? Energiek 2020, Bleiswijk, 26 Maart 2015. Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis – University of Groningen
Energy demand, GHG emissions and climate change…
Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.
Nervous markets…
The EU Emissions Trading Scheme - Chappin, Dijkema, de Vries, The Wall Street Journal, 2010 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704535004575348924229071164
• • • •
High volatility Price crashes Gaming Windfall profits
Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590–598.
Energy system transformation…
[GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]
CCS Potential 1/5 of the portfolio
Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008
Energy mix EU
Oil critical (imported) fossil fuel Few countries have substantial role of renewables (e.g. Demark, Austria, Sweden; mainly due to bioenergy + hydro) Variable roles for gas and nuclear
400 Billion Euro/yr energy imports in EU; and counting…!
Part of Europe in leadership position…
Dutch Energy system
Cijfers voor 2010 Bron: CBS/bewerking ECN
Supply per energy source (PJ/yr)
5000
4000
Historisc trend
6000
CO2-emissions rise CO2-emissions decline
Totaal hernieuwbaar Hernieuwbaar overig Zonnecollectoren, geothermie
Wind, PV, Hydro Water 3000
Wind Zon PV Biomassa
2000
Totaal Traditioneel Kernenergie
1000
Gas Olie Kolen
0
Demand per sector (PJ/yr)
5000
4000
Historische trend
6000
CO₂ emissies stijgen
energiebedrijven
CO₂ - emissies dalen
landbouw, visserij en dienstverlening gebouwde omgeving elektriciteit
0
energievraag niet uitgesplitst naar sector
1000
energievraag niet uitgesplitst naar sector
2000
energievraag niet uitgesplitst naar sector
3000
gebouwde omgeving warmte
huishoudens handel, diensten, overheid landbouw industrie verkeer en vervoer
13
Diversity in modelling & secneario assumptions... Ranges energy prices (€/GJ) (for target years in different studies)
BBP (billion €) No. people (mln) 1,8 21.2
Greenpeace Rev
Energy use (PJ/yr) CO2 emissions variy between 34 332 Mt/yr in 2050.
Bandbreedte in aanname energieprijzen Current prices in black voor de periode 2030 - 2050 (€/GJ)
6000 Greenpeace Revolution KIVI NIRIA
25 op basis van 2 rapporten
Green4sure Green4sure
5000
1,6
SEO - BM-P SEO-BM 18
1,4
SEO - BAU-P
20
SEO-BAU
19.7
op basis van 7 rapporten
PBL-ECN
PBL/ECN - max
4000
1,2
PBL/ECN - auto 17.1
CPB/MNP SE 17.5
PBL/ECN - nu
15
CPB/MNP RC
1 18.9
CPB/MNP GE CPB/MNP TM
17
CPB/MNP - RC CPB/MNP - GE
10
2000
ECN - REF
0,6
CPB/MNP - SE
op basis van 6 rapporten
0,8 15.8
3000
op basis van 2 rapporten
CPB/MNP -TM Historisch Optied-duurz
0,4 5
ECN REF-plan
1000
op basis van 5 rapporten
ECN REF-vast
0,2
ECN REF-geen 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0 oil
coal
gas
biomass
electricity
0 2000
2010
14
2020
2030
2040
2050
Historisch
Economic importance: New industry & employment? Wind Off shore?
Decline overall employment since 2008 But (RET & Eff.) energy sector grew some 60% and expected to continue. Gasroundabout Europe?
Biobased economy? PV
Smart Grids?
Many more examples on Sectoral level…
RE costs have declined in the past further declines expected in the future But fossil fuel based energy technologies (and supplies) learn as wel…
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Learning curve for power generation technologies, historic data and POLES WETO reference projection up to 2030.
And such opportunities can be found in most sectors…
Factors influencing learning/ unit costs Example for onshore wind farms:
• Improved siting of wind farms (Learning by doing) • Development of specific components (gear boxes, generators) and regulating mechanisms (stall/ pitch regulation) (R&D) • Mass production of wind turbines (economies-of-scale) • Upscaling of wind turbines (upscaling)
‘Learning investments’ – the cost of learning
Source: IEA, 2000
Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units of a new power plant technology Available for commercial order Preconstruction and licencing period
Capital Cost / Unit of Capacity (constant currency)
Finalized cost estimate Design / construction period
First commercial service Second plant in service 3rd plant 4th plant 5th plant
Development period cost estimates
Mature plant costs Simplified cost estimate with incomplete data
Estimate
Actual
Time
Source: EPRI
Actieplan klimaatneutrale glastuinbouw (1) • Tot 2020: • (Semi-)gesloten kassen; • Aardgas-WKK; • Aardwarmte; • Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven; • Energiebesparing.
Actieplan klimaatneutrale glastuinbouw (2) Na 2020: • Klimaatneutrale (gesloten) kas; • Elektriciteitsleverende kas met spectrumselectieve zonnecellen; • Bio-WKK (alleen gebruik van tweede generatie biomassa); • Aardwarmte; • Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven; • Energiebesparing. Uitgangspunten voor het bereiken van de doelstelling zijn: • De glastuinbouwsector gaat er in de transitiefase (10-15 jaar) economisch niet op achteruit; • De toegepaste alternatieve niet-fossiele brandstoffen leveren geen negatieve milieu-effecten op.
Perspectief voor glastuinbouw • Van groot energiegebruiker (gas!) naar energieleverancier. • Gecombineerd met overall verduurzaming (gesloten kas, recycling nutriënten, water en preventie emissies). • High tech exportproduct. • Uitstekend voorbeeld van innovatieve sector. • Uitstekend voorbeeld van sector met potentieel om ecologische footprint fundamenteel te veranderen. • Tegelijk blijft continu investeren en innoveren essentieel (leercurves…)… • In toenemende mate systeeminnovaties (verweven met rest energiesysteem (en andere ketens…)).
Important notion for in energy science & policy: A.o. IEA (WEO) concluded multiple times that : • Yes, 450 ppm pathways requires massive investments… • …but will lead to rapid cost reductions of RET’s and energy efficient technologies… • …and less pressure on fossil fuel supplies… • …leading to an overall lower cost and more secure (global) energy supply!
Final remarks: the essential preconditions for essential technological progress • Innovation (R&D + D + D) in energy technologies (supply & demand) is essential (fossil fuels keep learning as well). • A stable policy and investment climate is a key precondition for success and reaping the benefits of vital new industries and employment. This means: • Stable (long term) obligatory targets, clear market instruments, intensive collaboration between govt. & market players, innovation system strategy
Final remarks… • Transition of the energy system does not allow for further delays; 2050 targets require considerable acceleration. • Not only because of climate change (and other ecological concerns) but also because of economic reasons. • Technical possibilities known; potentials suffice. • Implementation and governance major bottlenecks. • Implications for the energy system, deployment over time and minimization of costs poorly understood… • …as are the extent to which economic benefits can be maximized. • System perspective, integral view of impacts and analysis of governance and business models. • Analysis parallel to implementation.
Time to act and thank you very much for your attention
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