Dampak El Niño dan Bencana Asap terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia
Faisal Basri 5 November 2015
http://www.emergencyscene.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/INDONESIA-HAZE.jpg
The Numbers: Indonesia’s Haze
Fires raged on peatlands on the outskirts of Palangkaraya, Indonesia, on November 1, 2015. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES The Wall Street Journal
Don’t underestimate the impact of El Niño The latest forecast released on August 13, 2015 by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center, this year's El Niño is "significant and strengthening." El Niño is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, mainly along the Equator, which indicates waters that are warmer than normal. These warmer waters are normally confined to the western Pacific by winds that blow from east to west, pushing the warmer water toward Indonesia and Australia. More rain in North and South America comes at the expense of normally rainy Southern Asia and Australia, which become abnormally dry and experience droughts. Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html
Direct economic costs Businesses take heat from haze in Indonesia: the economic cost of the fires will likely run into billions of dollars.
Producers of palm oil, rubber and paper are bracing for a financial hit from months of fires and choking haze smothering Indonesia. The biggest outbreak of fires since 1997 has devastated 3 million hectares of land and polluted the air, damaging agricultural regions. Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-take-heat-from-haze-in-indonesia-1446554641
Dampak terhadap perusahaan penerbangan dan mobilitas manusia dan barang Selama triwulan III (Juli-September), sekitar 3.000 penerbangan berjadwal mengalami pembatalan: Garuda sekitar 2.000 penerbangan, Citilink sekitar 600 penerbangan, dan lainnya sekitar 500 penerbangan. Perjalanan bisnis ke Sumatera dan Kalimantan anjlok, berdampak terhadap berbagai sektor, misalnya terutama hotel dan restoran. Hampir tidak ada sektor yang terbebas dari dampak negatif bencana asap. Pada gilirannya merembet ke seantero negeri, bahkan ke negara-negara tetanga.
Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and Sumatera suffered the most
2014: 4.7 Q1-15: 3.5 Q2-15: 2.8 Share = 22.3%
2014: 3.2 Q1-15: 1.1 Q2-15: 1.5 Share = 8.2%
2014: 5.6 Q1-15: 5.2 Q2-15: 5.1 Share = 58.4%
2014: 6.9 Q1-15: 7.3 Q2-15: 8.6 Share = 5.9%
2014: 5.9 Q1-15: 8.9 Q2-15: 8.9 Share = 3.0%
2014: 4.3 Q1-15: 3.7 Q2-15: 10.2 Share = 2.2%
US$ billions
Trade deficit: food products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Ekspor sudah empat tahun terus merosot. Bencana asap membuat kian terpuruk Trade account
Billion US$ Description
Growth (yoy)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
203.5
190.0
182.6
176.3
115.1
29.0
-6.6
-3.9
-3.4
-13.3
162.0
153.1
149.9
146.0
100.7
24.9
-5.5
-2.0
-2.6
-7.9
Oil and gas
41.5
37.0
32.6
30.3
14.4
48.3
-10.9
-11.8
-7.0
-38.6
Total import
177.4
191.7
186.6
178.2
107.9
30.7
8.0
-2.6
-4.5
-19.7
136.7
149.1
141.4
134.7
88.5
26.2
9.0
-5.2
-4.7
-12.6
40.7
42.6
45.3
43.4
19.4
48.4
4.6
6.4
-4.0
-41.2
Surplus (Deficit)
26.1
(-1.6)
(-4.1)
(-1.9)
7.2
Non-oil and gas
25.3
4.0
8.6
11.3
12.2
0.8
(-5.6)
(-12.6)
(-13.1)
-5.0
Total export Non-oil and gas
Non-oil and gas Oil and gas
Oil and gas * January-September. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sembilan komoditas primer sumbang hampir separuh ekspor Indonesia
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Kian runyam dengan ancaman boikot 12 Products To Boycott Because You Are A HazeHating Singaporean (http://mustsharenews.com/asia-paper-products/) Many will boycott products from haze-causing firms: Poll (http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/many-will-boycott-products-fromhaze-causing-firms-poll)
To resolve haze woes, boycott palm oil products (http://www.straitstimes.com/forum/letters-in-print/to-resolve-haze-woes-boycott-palm-oil-products)
The Haze: Time to Boycott Indonesia and all it's Products (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/haze-time-boycott-indonesia-all-its-products-chris-j-reedblack?trk=pulse-det-nav_art)
Thousand tons
Impor beras bakal meroket 3,000 2,751
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,810
1,805
1,429
1,356
1,500
1,407
1,000
844 688
645
473
438
500 237
0
* January-August. ** Prediction. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and prediction
290 190
251
225
Harga beras merangkak naik
Growth rate (y-o-y), 2015 Jul Aug Sep Premium 8.71 9.57 13.64 Medium 8.94 9.13 10.01 Low 8.98 12.77 17.84 Retail 10.49 11.58 13.43
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Kenaikan harga beras sangat sensitif terhadap peningkatan jumlah penduduk miskin
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Percent of population
Jumlah penduduk miskin sudah naik sebelum bencana asap. Per Maret 215 = 28.59 juta (11.22%)
60
60.0
Trendline-polynomial
50
40
30
24.2 17.8
20
11.111.2
11.3
* March and September average ** March Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2015**
2014*
2013*
2012*
2011*
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1980
1978
1976
0
1970
10
Global food security index, 2012-2015 Weighted total of all category scores (0-100 where 100 = most favourable) Rank Score Country United States Singapore Germany France United Kingdom Israel Japan South Korea Malaysia Brazil South Africa China Russia Thailand Vietnam India Philippines Indonesia Congo (Dem. Rep.)
2012 2013 1 .. 10 4 20 22 16 21 33 31 40 38 29 45 55 66 63 64 105
1 16 11 3 20 17 18 24 34 29 39 42 40 45 60 70 64 66 107
2014 2015 2012 1 5 8 10 16 17 21 25 34 33 46 42 40 49 67 69 65 72 109
1 2 8 9 15 19 21 26 34 36 41 42 43 52 65 68 72 74 105
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Food Security Index 2012-2015.
89.5 .. 83.0 86.8 79.0 77.7 80.7 77.8 63.9 67.6 61.7 62.5 68.3 57.9 50.4 45.0 47.1 46.8 18.4
2013
2014
2015
86.8 79.9 81.7 83.7 77.3 78.4 77.8 71.1 64.5 67.0 61.0 60.2 60.9 58.9 48.6 44.4 46.9 45.6 20.8
89.3 84.3 83.7 83.4 81.6 80.6 77.8 73.2 68.0 68.1 61.1 62.2 62.7 59.9 49.1 48.3 49.4 46.5 24.8
89.0 88.2 83.9 83.8 81.6 78.9 77.4 74.8 69.0 67.4 64.5 64.2 63.8 60.0 53.4 50.9 49.4 46.7 30.1
Ke depan …. Manusia tidak bisa melawan alam. Cara menyikapinya yang bisa mengurangi bencana kemanusiaan.
Pembaruan hukum atau penguatan institusi sebagai basis penyusunan kebijakan public yang proper. Peranan teknologi Mitigasi bencana
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