Better Times for Bond Investors

WEEKLY REPORT

D E B T RESEARCH

Better Times for Bond Investors

16 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER 2013

BB+ Baa3 BBB-

Key Market Indicator as of 16-Sep-13 BI Rate JCI Index IDR Inflation(y-o-y) - Aug-13

7.25% 4,522 11,380 8.79%

Market Outstanding as of 16-Sep-13 Government Bond Corporate Bond

IDR 936.85tn IDR 214.27tn

IDR 36.95tn IDR 1.26tn

Government Bond Indices as of 16-Sep-13 Price Index Yield Index Total Return

Calendar of Event 19-Sep-13 US Initial Jobless Claim (Survey : 330K; Prior :292K)

Selain sentimen positif dalam negeri, beberapa sentimen positif dari global seperti pembatalan penyerangan AS terhadap Syiria dan pengunduran diri Lawrence Summers dari calon ketua The Federal Reservse menyebabkan yield indeks turun 48bps selama 2 hari terakhir. Penurunan yield tersebut diikuti juga dengan volume perdagangan yang cukup tinggi. Total volume perdagangan 2 hari kemarin sebesar Rp17,18 triliun. Tren penurunan yield obligasi Pemerintah ini diperkirakan akan berlanjut jika kondisi nilai tukar dan volatilitas rupiah terus membaik.

Foreign, Domestic Bank & BI Ownership on SUN

123.76 8.17% 368.66

7.536% 7.964% 8.426% 8.528%

330 310 290 270 250 230 210 190

BI (incl. Revrep)

Foreign

110 100 90 80 70 60

Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Finance Mutual Fund, Insurance & Pension Fund Ownership on SUN Mutual Fund

Insurance

Pension Fund

250 200 150 100 50

IDR Trillion

19-Sep-13 Japan All Industrial Activity (Survey : 0.3%; Prior : -0.6%)

0 2-Jan-13 10-Jan-13 18-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 6-Feb-13 14-Feb-13 22-Feb-13 4-Mar-13 13-Mar-13 21-Mar-13 1-Apr-13 9-Apr-13 17-Apr-13 25-Apr-13 3-May-13 14-May-13 22-May-13 30-May-13 10-Jun-13 20-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 8-Jul-13 16-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 26-Aug-13 3-Sep-13 11-Sep-13

20-Sep-13 Reserve Bank of India Repurchase Rate Policy Announcement (Survey : NA; Prior : 7.25%)

120

Domestic Bank

IDR Trillion

Benchmark Yield as of 16-Sep-13 FR0066 (5 year) FR0063 (10 year) FR0064 (15 year) FR0065 (20 year) Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM

In addition to the positive developments in the country, some positive sentiment has been created from global developments such as the US’s decision not to strike Syria and the withdrawal of Lawrence Summers’ candidacy to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Over the last 2 days, the yield index fell 48bps. This was on the back of higher trading volumes. Total trading over 2 days reached IDR17.18 trillion. The downtrend in government bond yields is expected to continue if the stability in the exchange rate continues.

2-Jan-13 11-Jan-13 22-Jan-13 1-Feb-13 12-Feb-13 21-Feb-13 4-Mar-13 14-Mar-13 25-Mar-13 4-Apr-13 15-Apr-13 24-Apr-13 3-May-13 15-May-13 24-May-13 4-Jun-13 18-Jun-13 27-Jun-13 8-Jul-13 17-Jul-13 26-Jul-13 13-Aug-13 22-Aug-13 2-Sep-13 11-Sep-13

Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bond Corporate Bond

Berdasarkan data kepemilikan SUN per tanggal 12 September 2013, investor mulai optimis dengan kondisi volatilitas dan pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah yang membaik. Kepemilikan asing tercatat mengalami kenaikan Rp2,5 triliun dari tanggal 10 September hingga 13 September, sedangkan kepemilikan bank domestik naik Rp7,48 triliun pada periode yang sama. Berbeda dengan kepemilikan BI, investor asing dan domestik bank yang bergerak cenderung volatile, kepemilikan insurance, mutual fund dan pension fund bergerak lebih stabil.

IDR Trillion

Country's FCLT Rating S&P Moody's Fitch

Based on SUN ownership as of 12 September 2013, investors are starting to become more optimistic on the rupiah. Foreign holdings of SUN rose IDR2.5 trillion from September 10 to September 13, while domestic bank SUN holdings climbed IDR7.48 trillion in the same period. In contrast to BI’s holdings, the SUN holdings of foreign investors and domestic banks tended to be volatile, while the holdings of insurance, mutual funds and pension funds were more stable.

Source: Ministry of Finance Analysts Rifki Rizal 2955 5777 ext 3404 [email protected]

Yield Index Daily Change 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4%

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com

16-May-13 21-May-13 24-May-13 29-May-13 3-Jun-13 7-Jun-13 12-Jun-13 17-Jun-13 20-Jun-13 25-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 3-Jul-13 8-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 16-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 13-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 21-Aug-13 26-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 3-Sep-13 6-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 16-Sep-13

Amir A. Dalimunthe 2955 5777 ext.3405 [email protected]

Source: Danareksa Estimates, Bloomberg

16 September - 20 September 2013

WEEKLY REPORT

MACROECONOMICS CONDITION

The Biggest Decline in Yields since February 2012 The government bonds yield index dropped last week to 8.44%, down 32bps from the previous week. This is the biggest week-on-week decline since February 2012. Indonesia's 5-year CDS was down 30bps from the previous week to 250bps. On September 12, Bank Indonesia raised the BI Rate by 25bps to 7.25% as inflation expectations are still high. After this, the yield index fell 48bps in two days as of 13 September 2013. Rupiah volatility declined last week although it was still relatively high. Last week the rupiah closed at IDR11,232 per US dolar, down 56points from the previous week.

Yield indeks obligasi Pemerintah turun sepanjang minggu lalu dan menutup akhir minggu pada level 8,49%, atau turun 31bps dari minggu sebelumnya. Penurunan terbesar sejak Februari 2012. Penurunan yield obligasi Pemerintah diikuti dengan CDS 5-tahun yang turun 29bps dari minggu sebelumnya. Per tanggal 12 September Bank Indonesia menetapkan BI Rate sebesar 25bps menjadi 7,25% karena ekspektasi inflasi yang masih tinggi. Setelah BI rate naik, yield indeks turun 16bps pada tanggal 13 September. Volatilitas Rupiah minggu lalu turun walaupun masih relatif tinggi. Minggu lalu Rupiah ditutup di level Rp11.232 per USD, turun 56poin dari minggu sebelumnya.

Total corporate bonds trading amounted to IDR1.25 trillion last week with bonds of less than 1 year maturity dominating the trading with trading volume of IDR415 billion.

Total trading obligasi korporasi minggu lalu sebesar Rp1,25 triliun dengan obligasi bertenor kurang dari 1 tahun mendominasi perdagangan dengan volume sebesar Rp415 miliar.

Yield Index

CDS 5-Year (bps) 9.0%

275

8.5% 8.0%

225

7.5% 175

7.0% 6.5%

125

6.0%

Domestic Bank Increased Their SUN Ownership

16-Sep-13

4-Sep-13

29-Aug-13

10-Sep-13

Turkey

Rupiah closed at Rp11,232 per USD 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

11,800 11,500

17-Jun-13 20-Jun-13 25-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 3-Jul-13 8-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 16-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 13-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 21-Aug-13 26-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 3-Sep-13 6-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 BI (RHS)

Domestic Bank

11,200 10,900 10,600 10,300 10,000 9,700

Foreign Investors

20-Jun-13 25-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 3-Jul-13 8-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 16-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 13-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 21-Aug-13 26-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 3-Sep-13 6-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 16-Sep-13

365 355 345 335 325 315 305 295 285 275 265

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor

Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector AA+ 45.13%

0.45 0.40 0.35 IDR trillion

23-Aug-13

25-Jul-13

19-Jul-13

9-Jul-13

15-Jul-13

3-Jul-13

31-Jul-13

Brazil

IDR trillion

IDR trillion

Philipinnes

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg

RR-BI (RHS)

27-Jun-13

21-Jun-13

17-Jun-13

4-Jun-13

11-Jun-13

Indonesia

19-Aug-13

BI Rate Inflation Forecast

13-Aug-13

Yield Index (LHS) Inflation

75 29-May-13

17-Jun-13 20-Jun-13 25-Jun-13 28-Jun-13 3-Jul-13 8-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 16-Jul-13 19-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 29-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 13-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 21-Aug-13 26-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 3-Sep-13 6-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 16-Sep-13

5.5%

AAA 2.10%

0.30 0.25

BBB 0.91%

0.20 AA10.91%

0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

9

AA 9.98% A+ 4.20%

A 13.15%

BBB+ 2.14%

A11.48%

Term to Maturity Source: IDX Processed Data

Source: IDX Processed Data 2


WEEKLY REPORT

GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW

Trade Volume Surged Demand for IDR government bonds increased last week. This is evident in the downward shift of the yield curve for all tenors last week with an average decline of 24bps. In addition, the increase in last week's trading which reached 65.6% of the previous week’s trading shows that SUN remain attractive for investors. Total trading in government bonds reached IDR36.96 trillion last week, up IDR14.64 trillion over the previous week, with an average transaction size of IDR18.17 billion. The total trading in corporate bonds rose by IDR102 billion last week with an average transaction size of IDR7.56 billion.

Permintaan Investor terhadap obligasi Pemerintah meningkat, hal tersebut dapat dilihat dari perubahan yield curve minggu lalu yang tertekan untuk semua tenor dengan rata-rata penurunan sebesar 24bps. Selain itu, naiknya volume perdagangan yang mencapai 65,6% dari minggu sebelumnya menjadi bukti lain bahwa SUN masih menarik bagi investor. Total volume perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu sebesar Rp36,96 triliun, naik Rp14,64 triliun dari minggu sebelumnya, dengan rata-rata volume setiap transaksi sebesar Rp18,17 miliar. Sedangkan total volume perdagangan untuk obligasi korporasi pada minggu lalu naik sebesar Rp102 miliar dengan rata-rata volume setiap transaksi sebesar Rp7,56 miliar.

Spread Indon 10 year Over UST 10 year

Spread SUN 10 year over Indon 10 year 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0%

2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 1.4%

8.0%

UST 10Y

7.0% 6.0%

2.5%

5.0% 4.0%

2.0%

3.0% 1.5%

2.0%

INDON 10Y

Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

Govt Bonds Benchmark Series Yield Govt Short

Govt Med

Corp

12

8 6 4 2 16-Sep-13

13-Sep-13

12-Sep-13

11-Sep-13

10-Sep-13

6-Sep-13

5-Sep-13

4-Sep-13

0

Source: IDX processed data Yield Curve Change

Yield Curve Comparison

7.77%

Govt Long

10

3-Sep-13

16-Sep-13

31-Jul-13

27-Aug-13

11-Jul-13

21-Jun-13

31-May-13

13-May-13

2-Apr-13

22-Apr-13

11-Mar-13

19-Feb-13

9-Jan-13

9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

FR0063 - 10Y FR0065 - 20Y

30-Jan-13

14-Dec-12

26-Nov-12

2-Nov-12

12-Oct-12

Daily Trade Volume

Source: Bloomberg

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

SUN 10Y

IDR trillion

24-Sep-12

FR0066 - 5Y FR0064 - 15Y

INDON 10Y

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

9-Sep-13

Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

9.0%

3.0%

7-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 17-Oct-12 6-Nov-12 26-Nov-12 16-Dec-12 5-Jan-13 25-Jan-13 14-Feb-13 6-Mar-13 26-Mar-13 15-Apr-13 5-May-13 25-May-13 14-Jun-13 4-Jul-13 24-Jul-13 13-Aug-13 2-Sep-13

0.9%

3.5%

7-Sep-12 25-Sep-12 13-Oct-12 31-Oct-12 18-Nov-12 6-Dec-12 24-Dec-12 11-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 16-Feb-13 6-Mar-13 24-Mar-13 11-Apr-13 29-Apr-13 17-May-13 4-Jun-13 22-Jun-13 10-Jul-13 28-Jul-13 15-Aug-13 2-Sep-13

3.4%

8.22% 6.50%

8.49%

8.64%

8.76%

0.00%

6.95%

7.15%

7.29%

-0.05%

0

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

-0.10%

5.19% 2.90%

3.25%

3.84%

3.59%

-0.15% -0.20%

1.71%

-0.25% -0.30% 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-0.35%

Term to Maturity UST YC

GoI USD Yield Curve

Source: www.ustreas.gov, Danareksa Estimate

Term to Maturity

GoI IDR Yield Curve

Source: Danareksa Estimate 3


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 9 September - 13 September 2013 Last Trade Date 10-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13

Bonds ORI005 FR0049 SPN12131007 IFR0004 SPNS17102013 SPN03131031 SPN12131113 SPN03131211 FR0020 SPNS10012014 SPNS24012014 SR003 SPNS04032014 SPN12140314 SPN12140410 SPN03130807 FR0051 SPN12140703 FR0026 ORI008 VR0019 VR0020 FR0027 SR004 ORI009 SR005 FR0030 FR0055 VR0023 FR0060 FR0028 VR0025 PBS001 FR0066 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0043 FR0063 FR0046 FR0070 FR0044 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 PBS004 FR0050 FR0057 FR0062

Maturity Coupon 15-Sep-13 15-Sep-13 7-Oct-13 15-Oct-13 17-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 13-Nov-13 11-Dec-13 15-Dec-13 10-Jan-14 24-Jan-14 23-Feb-14 4-Mar-14 14-Mar-14 10-Apr-14 7-May-14 15-May-14 3-Jul-14 15-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 25-Dec-14 25-Apr-15 15-Jun-15 21-Sep-15 15-Oct-15 27-Feb-16 15-May-16 15-Sep-16 25-Oct-16 15-Apr-17 15-Jul-17 25-Sep-17 15-Feb-18 15-May-18 15-Sep-18 15-Sep-19 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jul-21 15-May-22 15-Jul-22 15-May-23 15-Jul-23 15-Mar-24 15-Sep-24 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-27 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-May-28 15-Mar-29 15-Aug-30 15-Jul-31 15-Jun-32 15-May-33 15-Mar-34 15-Feb-37 15-Jul-38 15-May-41 15-Apr-42

11.45 9.00 9.00 14.28 8.15 11.25 11.00 7.95 3.75 4.81 9.50 6.25 6.25 6.00 10.75 7.38 4.81 6.25 10.00 5.19 4.50 5.25 9.00 11.50 11.00 12.80 8.25 7.00 10.25 5.63 9.50 8.38 10.00 11.00 8.38 7.00 10.25 10.00 6.13 9.00 10.50 9.50 8.25 6.63 8.38 6.10 10.50 9.50 6.38

Tenor 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.23 0.24 0.31 0.35 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.56 0.64 0.66 0.79 1.08 1.08 1.27 1.61 1.74 2.01 2.08 2.44 2.66 2.99 3.11 3.58 3.83 4.02 4.41 4.66 4.99 5.99 7.16 7.74 7.83 8.66 8.83 9.66 9.83 10.49 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.66 13.83 14.41 14.66 15.49 16.91 17.83 18.74 19.66 20.49 23.41 24.83 27.66 28.58

Last Done Price 100.08 100.00 99.78 100.41 99.67 99.52 99.00 98.96 102.38 98.07 98.43 100.40 97.09 96.74 96.75 96.20 102.50 95.57 104.00 100.10 98.80 98.60 103.05 95.25 95.75 95.50 107.67 98.50 98.30 95.25 106.50 98.20 82.00 90.25 104.25 114.25 114.50 125.10 97.00 92.35 108.00 83.50 103.74 100.95 108.45 114.50 98.00 86.45 108.60 108.44 79.00 103.20 115.75 96.80 81.25 81.25 95.23 71.95 110.00 100.00 76.80

Freq 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 15.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 4.00 12.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 8.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 7.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 8.00 2.00 85.00 2.00 3.00 9.00 4.00 2.00 5.00 27.00 57.00 1.00 9.00 48.00 32.00 107.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 6.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 33.78 195.00 170.92 64.00 300.00 235.67 18.55 58.72 147.79 49.80 372.22 267.23 200.00 106.00 206.00 187.46 1.41 208.48 300.85 76.09 200.00 1,425.00 491.80 205.99 116.93 241.44 225.80 185.98 320.00 33.41 16.44 70.00 5.51 1,464.06 3.01 0.68 64.89 156.87 176.50 1,089.55 31.93 651.38 10.00 7,078.04 124.56 74.63 214.39 136.78 133.10 111.71 4,254.46 1,906.95 119.40 69.28 1,150.40 2,421.77 8,716.09 30.00 0.49 0.50 26.90

Yield 11.44 8.62 0.22 4.15 0.33 0.48 1.01 1.05 4.65 1.97 1.59 8.12 3.00 3.37 3.36 3.95 7.36 4.63 7.11 7.94 3.80 4.88 7.60 6.56 6.53 6.28 7.52 7.95 4.89 7.79 7.99 3.82 9.59 7.78 7.95 8.43 8.27 8.33 8.78 8.25 8.92 8.12 8.92 8.24 8.79 9.00 8.63 8.71 9.14 8.95 8.68 8.62 8.70 9.88 10.56 8.62 8.88 8.99 9.45 9.50 8.56

Tenor Class < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr < 1yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 1yr - 5yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr 5yr - 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr > 10yr

Modified Duration 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.23 0.24 0.31 0.35 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.56 0.64 0.66 0.79 1.08 1.08 1.27 1.61 1.74 2.01 2.08 2.44 2.66 2.99 3.11 3.58 3.83 4.02 4.41 4.66 4.99 5.99 7.16 7.74 7.83 8.66 8.83 9.66 9.83 10.49 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.66 13.83 14.41 14.66 15.49 16.91 17.83 18.74 19.66 20.49 23.41 24.83 27.66 28.58

Source: Danareksa, BEI

4


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 9 September - 13 September 2013 Last Trade Date 12-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 10-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 13-Sep-13

Bonds JMPD11PXBFTW JMPD01JM10ZB ASDF01ACN2 ADMF04D CFIN03B BEXI01ACN2 BDMN02A BIMF01A SANF01C BFIN01ACN2 NISP01ACN1 ADMF02ACN1 FIFA01ACN2 FIFA01BCN1 ADMF01BCN2 ADMF05C BBTN13C IMFI04B MEDC02B PPGD13A1 ASDF01BCN2 ADMF04E CFIN03C PPLN07 ISAT07A SANF02C ASDF01BCN1 BSLT04 ISAT06B SMFP01BCN2 BCAF01CCN1 IMFI01BCN1 WEHA01 ADMF05D SMADMF01CCN1 IMFI01BCN2 BCAF01BCN2 ASDF02CCN1 BPFI01C APLN01B BNII01BCN1 BMRI01 ADMF01CCN1 ASDF01CCN1 SMFP01CCN2 SMKMYOR02 WSKT02B NISP03SB ADHI01ACN1 BSDE01BCN1 BNGA01SB BTPN01BCN2 APLN02 PPGD12A PNBN04SB SSMM01B SISSMM01 SIAGII02 ADMF02DCN1 ADHI01ACN2

Maturity Coupon 10-Oct-13 12-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 29-Oct-13 8-Nov-13 7-Dec-13 9-Dec-13 14-Jan-14 25-Jan-14 1-Mar-14 1-Mar-14 11-Mar-14 14-Apr-14 20-Apr-14 4-May-14 27-May-14 29-May-14 9-Jun-14 17-Jun-14 1-Jul-14 12-Oct-14 29-Oct-14 8-Nov-14 11-Nov-14 8-Dec-14 20-Jan-15 21-Feb-15 9-Apr-15 9-Apr-15 25-Apr-15 9-May-15 11-May-15 16-May-15 27-May-15 1-Mar-16 8-May-16 14-Jun-16 27-Jun-16 3-Jul-16 25-Aug-16 6-Dec-16 11-Dec-16 16-Dec-16 21-Feb-17 25-Apr-17 9-May-17 5-Jun-17 30-Jun-17 3-Jul-17 4-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 3-Aug-17 15-Aug-17 4-Sep-17 9-Nov-17 30-Nov-17 30-Nov-17 18-Dec-17 1-Mar-18 15-Mar-18

13.00 9.10 6.65 9.00 9.75 6.25 8.75 10.65 9.30 7.50 6.40 6.85 6.75 7.35 7.50 9.60 12.25 10.15 14.25 11.68 7.50 9.25 10.25 12.25 11.25 8.40 8.00 12.00 10.80 7.35 7.60 8.00 12.25 10.00 7.85 8.25 7.50 7.75 10.75 11.00 8.75 11.85 9.00 8.60 7.55 9.50 9.75 11.35 9.35 9.25 11.30 8.25 9.38 10.03 10.50 9.60 9.60 9.90 8.90 8.10

Tenor

Rating

0.06 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.22 0.23 0.33 0.36 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.58 0.59 0.63 0.69 0.70 0.73 0.75 0.79 1.07 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.23 1.34 1.43 1.56 1.56 1.61 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.69 2.46 2.64 2.74 2.78 2.79 2.94 3.22 3.23 3.25 3.43 3.61 3.64 3.72 3.79 3.79 3.80 3.81 3.88 3.91 3.96 4.14 4.20 4.20 4.25 4.46 4.49

idAA idAA idAA+ idAA idA+ idAAA idAA+ [Idr]BBB idA A+(idn) idAAA/AAA(idn) idAA+ idAA+/AAA(idn) idAA+ idAA+ idAA+ AAidA AAAA+ idAA+ idAA idA+ idAA+ AA+ idAAidAA+ idAidAA+ AA(idn) idAA+/AA+(idn) idA idBBB+ idAA+ idAA+(sy) idA idAA+/AAA(idn) idAA+ idBBB idA AAA(idn) AA+ idAA+ idAA+ AA(idn) idAA-(sy) idAAA(idn) idA idA+ AA(idn) AA-(idn) idA idAA+ idAA-/A+(idn) idA idA(sy) A-(idn) idAA+ idA

Last Done Price 100.15 99.03 99.90 100.13 101.19 99.75 100.15 99.70 100.00 99.00 98.75 98.95 99.08 98.50 99.00 101.69 102.45 100.67 102.50 102.40 99.08 100.68 99.75 102.25 103.77 100.00 97.91 104.00 101.25 95.50 98.80 98.34 100.00 100.10 97.10 94.50 96.52 99.85 99.35 102.86 97.78 102.00 100.00 95.50 92.78 100.81 98.80 103.25 100.00 97.00 103.15 98.35 102.00 103.85 99.82 99.68 99.41 79.25 96.12 100.00

Freq 3.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 6.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 8.00 1.00 1.00 6.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 1.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 6.00 10.20 30.00 30.00 8.00 10.00 101.94 9.00 0.50 0.50 12.50 20.00 40.00 6.00 0.50 44.00 12.00 53.90 10.00 10.00 66.00 30.00 33.50 6.00 10.00 0.20 1.00 38.00 20.00 0.20 35.00 10.00 12.00 4.00 4.00 15.00 80.00 3.40 2.50 1.60 4.00 6.00 8.00 2.50 0.12 1.00 8.00 28.00 15.00 5.00 6.50 0.15 0.02 2.00 75.28 30.00 18.00 88.00 1.60 0.10

Yield 12.98 0.98 7.49 7.93 2.15 7.31 8.10 11.54 9.28 9.66 9.13 9.03 8.36 9.94 9.09 7.11 8.64 9.20 10.80 8.55 8.39 8.61 10.48 10.18 8.02 8.40 9.57 9.25 9.93 10.40 8.38 9.08 12.24 9.93 10.65 8.93 7.81 11.02 9.87 9.56 11.11 9.00 10.16 9.95 10.14 10.30 9.35 10.21 10.29 8.75 8.77 8.87 10.55 9.69 9.77 16.81 9.99 8.10

Modified Duration 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.23 0.23 0.32 0.36 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.57 0.57 0.62 0.68 0.67 0.70 0.70 0.75 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.34 1.41 1.41 1.49 1.53 1.53 1.48 1.54 2.32 2.42 2.45 2.35 2.49 2.78 2.68 2.74 2.91 3.07 3.09 3.01 3.13 3.12 3.03 3.26 3.24 3.26 3.31 3.42 3.42 3.19 3.62 3.67


5


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 9 September - 13 September 2013 (Cont'd) Last Trade Date 13-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 9-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 13-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 11-Sep-13 13-Sep-13

Bonds ADHI01ACN2 SIAISA01 BNII01SB BSDE01CN2 ROTI01CN1 APLN01CN1 BBKP01SBCN1 BNLI01SBCN2 PPLN11B BBTN14 BVIC03SB ANTM01BCN1 ISAT08B BBMISMSB1CN1

Maturity Coupon 15-Mar-18 5-Apr-18 19-May-18 5-Jun-18 11-Jun-18 27-Jun-18 6-Mar-19 19-Dec-19 12-Jan-20 11-Jun-20 27-Jun-20 14-Dec-21 27-Jun-22 29-Jun-22

8.10 10.25 10.75 8.38 8.00 9.25 9.25 9.40 12.55 10.25 10.50 9.05 8.88 0.00

Tenor

Rating

4.49 4.55 4.67 4.72 4.73 4.78 5.47 6.26 6.32 6.73 6.78 8.24 8.78 8.78

idA idA-(sy) idAA idAAidAAidA idA idAAidAA+ idAAidBBB+ idAA idAA+ idA+

Last Done Price 100.00 101.03 105.50 96.00 100.00 99.82 96.00 95.15 114.50 99.63 97.60 94.85 94.85 92.35

Freq 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 6.00 4.00 8.00 2.00 1.00 6.00 7.00 2.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 0.10 11.00 3.00 15.00 0.10 10.00 12.00 14.00 40.00 10.00 15.00 12.00 28.00 6.00

Yield 8.10 9.96 9.29 9.43 8.00 9.30 10.21 10.46 9.48 10.33 11.01 9.97 9.75 -

Modified Duration 3.67 3.55 3.67 3.85 3.92 3.77 4.22 4.54 4.41 4.82 4.68 5.56 5.86 -


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WEEKLY REPORT

RESEARCH TEAM

Debt Research Fax No.

Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1709

ext. 3400

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Debt Capital Market Division

Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No.

Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto [email protected]

Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D [email protected] Agung Suprihanto [email protected]

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Putrika Mayadipta [email protected]

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Ariningtyas W. Agustina [email protected]

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7

Better Times for Bond Investors

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