177 1.9. Penamaao Darga Impor Komoditas Pertanian D(LPBINA) =
091 *D(LCAt-1 + 092*D(LCNt - l ) +093 *D(LC_BlNAt-l) + *D(LCBIN_Nl t _1) + a9s*D(LPAt- l ) + a96-D(LPNt - l ) + a97*D(LPBINAt _l) + 09s*D(LPBINNl t - I) + a99*D(LREERt-I)+ a910 *D(LXt-l) + a94
*( LCAt_1 -b ll *LPAt _1-hI] -LPN,_! - bJj *LPBINAt-l b14*LPBINNl t-J - bJ5*LREERt _1 - b I6*LXt-1 - b17 ) + aLCN*( LCNt_! - b21 *LPAt-l- bzz*LPNt - 1- h2J*LPBlNA t_1 b u *LPBINNl t - 1-b2S *LREERt - 1-b26 *LXt-1+ b17) + OLC. BU,M.*( LC_BINAt_1 -hjJ*LPA t _1 - hn*LPNt_1 -h.B *LPBINAt-l - bJ,,*LPBINNl t _l - b3S *LREERt-l - b36 *LXt-1 -b37 ) + aLCBlNjU *( LCBlN_NI t _t - b 41 *LPA-1 - b42 *LPNt -1 -b43 *LPB lNA t_1 - b44 *LPBINNI t _ 1 - b4s *LREERt_1 - h46*LXt_1 . b47 ) + aLCA
a/~H2*(
LM2 t _1 - aSI*LPMt - 1 -asl*LPBt - 1 -a53*LPBIN_8t-1 -aj.lLWt _1 ) + aLR*( LB t _1- a61*LPMt-I-061*LPBt_1 - 063·LPBIN Bt-1-a6/,'LWt - I)+ aLBBIN*( LBBINe_1 - 07l*LPM t_1 - o71*LPB t - 1 - a73*LPBIN Bt-I a74*LW t - l ) LYAt -! -a8/*Rt-1 - aS2*(L WAt_IILP At-I) *(LPMAt_IILPAt _ l ) - oS-I*LPA t _ 1 ) + au:A.*( LKAt-l -a91*Rt-1 - a9/"(L W At_I/LPA t _l ) a93 *(LPMAt-1ILPAt-d - a9-1*LPA t _1 ) + a LU*( LLAt _1 -a10 J*R t-l -a101*(LWAt - l /LPA-J)al03 *(LPMAt_1ILPA t _\) - oJo./*LPAt - J ) + aLYA"'(
aS3
LYN t -! -aIJ I*Rt-1 - 0IJ l*(LWNt -!ILPN t -tl*(LPMNt_IILPNt_l ) - Oll 4*LPN(-1 ) + OUJ"*( LKN t - 1 -aJ1/*R.-l - alll*(L WNt-IILPNt-I) a113 *(LPMNt -t1LPNt-t) - 0/2 ,,*LPN t_1 ) + a 1.1.",*( LLN t_1 -a13 /"R t - I - aJ3 2*(LWN1- I/LPN1- 1) 0133 *(LPMNt-IILPNt_d - 0J3 -I*LPNt - 1 ) + 0LYN*(
all 3
aLC.N*( LC_N t _1-a14/*LREER._1- aI41*LP_N t - l - 0Io*LX_BlN t _1 ) + au..'_A *( LC_At_1 - alSI*LREER._!-aJ5 }*LP_A t-! -a153*LX_BINt -d
+ e,
178
1.10. Persamaan Harga Impor Komoditas non Pertanian D(LPBINN1) =
%
J
*D(LCAt-t + am z*D(LCNt - t) +a103 *D(LC_BINAt_I) +
OJ04 *D(LCBIN_Nl t - t) + a1Os*D(LPA t - l) + a\o6*D(LPNI_I) + a /0
7*D(LPBINAt -t) + a10 s*D(LPBINNI I-I) + alO 9*D(LREERt-I}+ m *D(LXt _1) +
0JO
aLCA *( LCA t_1 -bIJ *LPA.-t -b/2 *LPNt_1 - b J3 *LPBINAt_1 bu*LPBINNl t_1 - b 15 *LREERt-1- b/6*LXt _1 - b17 ) + aLC"'*( LCN t_1- b2J *LPAt-l- b22 *LPNI-1 -b]j*LPBINAt_l b24 *LPBINNl t-1-bzs*LREERH -hZ6*LXt-L + bZ7) + ale BINA*( LC BINAI_I -bJJ*LPAt-L - b32*LPNt - L-b JJ *LPBINAt-1 - bJ4*LPBINNl t_l - b3S *LREERt_1 - b36 *LXt-l -b37 } + aLeBlXj.f/ *( LCBIN_Nl t_L- b4L *LPAt-1 - b42 *LPNt-I -b 43 *LPBINAt_1 - b44 *LPBINNl t-L- b4S *LREER.-l - b46*LXt_1 - b47 ) +
LM2 t_1- us,*LPM t_1 -a52*LPBt - 1 -aj3*LPBIN Bt-I -os./LW t - I ) + ULB*( LB t-1 - a6,*LPMt-l-a61*LPBt_1 - a63*LPBIN Bt-I-G64*LWt-t}+ aLBBJN*( LBBIN t_1 - a71*LPM1_ I - o71*LPB t-1 - a7J*LPBIN_B t_1 u74*LW t _ l ) ULW*(
LYAt-1 -a8J*R.-l - OR1*(LWAt-t/LPAt-t}083 *(LPMAt-1ILPAt-1) - Ull.,l*LP At-I) +aI.KA*( LKA t_1 -a9/*Rt-l - 091*( LW At-tiLPA t-L) 093 *( LPMAt_1/LPA t_1) - a9-1*LPA t_1 ) + U I.IA*( LLA t _ 1 -am J*R.-t-OlO2*(LWA.-t/LPAt-t}af(U *(LPMAt-IILPAt-d - aJ04*LPA.-I ) + an.I*(
aU'N*( LYN t-1 -a" J*Rt-1 - all 2*(L WNt_I/LPNt_I)all _~ *(LPMNt-1ILPNt-l ) - a1l4*LPNt- 1 ) + a/,KN*( LKN t _t -a'2l*Rt - 1 -a/2z*(LWNt - I /LPN t- I ) ai23 *(LPMNt_IILPNt_l ) - 0/2 4*LPN t - 1 ) + a LLN*( LLN t _1 -ajJ i*Rt - 1 - a'31*(LWNt-\ILPNt -da13 3 *(LPMNt_IILPNt_l ) - a/3/'LPN t_1 ) +
LC_Nt_1 -a/.,lJ*LREERt_1 - a/4 2*LP_Nt-I - a14J*LX_BINt_l ) *( LC_At_1- aJsl*LREER.-l-GJS 2*LP_At-t -GIS3*LX_BINt_1)
aLCJ'/(
+ Qf.(,'_A +et
179
dimana: LC BINA
=Log Nilai Impor Pertanian
LCBIN N1
=Log Nilai impor non Pertanian
LeA
=Log total Permintaan Komoditas Pertanian
LeN
=Log Total Permintaan Komoditas non Pertanian
LP A
=Log Harga Output Pertanian Domestik
LPN
=Log Harga Ourput non Pertanian
LREER
=Log Real Effective f.xchange Rate
LX
=Log Penge1uaran Konsumsi Swasta Domestik
LPBINA
=Log Harga Impor Komodit..:; Pcrtanian
LPBThTN I
=Log h:1rg:.:.
!::~p;Jf
Komoditas non pertanian
2. Blok Permintaan Aset Finansial 2.1. Persamaao Permintaao Uaog (M2) d(LM2) =
"(;;I GII7*d(LW'_I) *( LeAl_I -hll *LPA'_1 -bJl *LPNl-[ - hI.? *LPBINA_Ih14*LPBINNl t _1 - h15 *LREERI-1- b16 *LXt - 1- hll ) + aLeY*( LeN'_1 - bl l *LPAt-I- h12*LPNt _1 -blJ*LPBINA t _l b24*LPBINNl t _1-b]j*LREERt _1-h]6*LXI_1 + h17) + GJ.('_BINA*( LC_BINAt_1 -b31 *LPA'_1 - b 31 *LPNt_1 -boB *LPBINA t_1 - h34 *LPBINNI'_I- b3S *LREE;Rt _1- h36*LXt_1 -b37 ) + aLCBIN_Nl *( LCBIN_Nl t _1 - b 41 *LPA t _1 - b 42 *LPNt _1 -b.n*LPBINA t_1 - hH *LPBINN1'_1 - h45*LRFF.R: : - h4{,*LX:_ l - h n ) + aLCA
LM2 t_1 - as,*LPM'_1 -G52*LPB'-1 -G54*LWI-I ) +
GI.W*(
aLB*( LB t_1 - a61*LPMt-1-a62*LPr·,
-Gs_~*LPBIN_BI_l
180
aLYA·( LYA-I -as/IoRt_1 - a82*(L WA_1/LPAt_l ) a83 ·(LPMAt-dLPAt-I) - a84*LPAt-1 ) + aLKA·( LKAt-1 -a9,*Rt-1 - a92*(LWA t - 1ILPAt-I)a93 *(LPMAt-lILPAt-t} - a9,,*LPA-l ) + a LU*( LLAt_1 -(I/o /*R t _l-aJ02*(LWA_ 1/LPAt _1)alO 3 *(LPMAt-dLPAt-l) - aw ,,*LPA'_l ) + aLYN*( LYN I - 1-all /*Rt-I - au ]"'(LWNt-1/LPN t - l)all 3
*(LPMNt_IILPNt _l ) - aI14*LPN t - 1 ) +
aLKN*( LKNt_1 -aJ2 /"R t-I - a112*(L WNt-dLPN\-l)a/2 3 *(LPMNt-1ILPNt-d - aJl /"LPN t_1 ) + a LLN*( LLN t _1 -aJ3 I*RI_I - a/3 2*(L WN t -l/LPN t - l ) a 133 *(LPMNt-l/LPN t _1) - a 13 -I*LPNt - 1 ) + all: .v*( LC_N t - 1 -aJ4J*LREERt - 1 - a'42*LP _Nt-I - QI43*LX_BINt-1 ) + aJ.£'.~ *( LC_A t - 1 - aJ5 ,*LREERt_1-a!5 1*LP_At-I -tI15/"LX_BIN,-l ) + et
2.2. Persamaan Permintaan Surat 8erharga Domestik d(LB) =
..j
~I
lJ/u*d(LWt_d
LCAt _) -b ll "'LPA t_1-b,] "'LPN t-J - b n *LPBINAt_1 b14*LPBINNl t_1 - hJj*LREERt_1- h/6 "'LXt _1 - b 17 ) + aLCY*( LCN t _1 - b2! *LPAI-1- hl1*LPN'_1 -b2J*LPBINA'_i hu*LPBINNl t _1-h25*LREER.-J -bz/"LX t-1 + bJ7) + a/.c_81":4*( LC_BINA t _1-b_?f*LPA t -l - b_~2·LPNt_1 -h_u *LPBrNAt _1 - b3,,*LPBINNl t _ l - b.u*LREERt_1 - b.i6 *LXt_1 -b37 ) + a/£81I\-_Nl *( LeBrN_NI t_] - b41 *LPA-l - b42 *LPNt - 1 -h 43 *LPBINAt_1 - h«*LPBINNl t _1 - b4S *LREERt _ 1 - b46 *LXt - 1 - h47) + aU:"l .(
UI""'I2*( LM2 t-1 - as,*LPMt-i -U52*LPB t - 1 -usJ"'LPBIN_Bt_1 -a54*L Wt-l ) + aLB*( LSt_1 - iJ6,*LPMI-,-a62*LPBI_1 - a63*LPBIN_B'_I-a64*LW t_1)+ aUIHIN*( LBBIN t _1- a7J*LPM t _1 - an*LPB'-1 - an*LPBIN Bt - I aJ.l*L W I - l ) aUA*( LYAt-) --QSJ*Rt-, - a8z*(L WAt-1/LPA t _1)
-
*(LPMA-1ILPA_I) - aS4*LPA1- l ) + au,A*( LKA t _1 --Q91*Rt-i - a92*(LWA,.dLPA'_1)a9J *(LPMA1-1/LPAt _1) - a94*LPA.l ) + aXJ
,
181
o UA*( LLAt_1 -a/o /*Rt_l-u/o2*(LWAt_IILPAt_I)0/03 -(LPMAt_dLPAt_I)- 0/o4*LPA t_1 ) +
LYNt-1
OLYN*(
-a" /*Rt-I - all 2-(LWN lILPN I)-
OLKN*(
t-
t-
au 3 *(LPMNt-lILPNt _l )
LKN t_1-aJ] J*R t-1 -
- 011 .,-LPNt-l
)+ U/21*(LWN t - 1ILPNt - I)-
3 *(LPMNt_dLPNt _l ) - aJ} 4*LPNH ) + a LLN*( LLN 1_l -an I*Rt - 1 - an /"(L WNt-1ILPN t - I ) 0u 3 *(LPMNt-1ILPNt _ l ) - a13 4*LPN,_1 ) + aJ)
LC_N t - 1-au J*LREERt _1 - 0/4 /"LP_N t-l - u/43*LX_BINt-1 ) *( LC_At - 1-0'5 /*LREERt-I-a/5 2*LP_At_I -o/53*LX_BINt_l)
01£ N*(
+
aLe; +~
2.3. Persamaan Permintaan Surat Berharga Luar Negeri
4
~I OH
aU'._j
7*d(LWt _ l )
*( LCAt-1-hI! *LPA t _1 -h'2 "'LPNt-l
b JJ *LPBINAt_1 hJ5*LREERt-l - h J6 *LX'_1 - h 17 ) + -
hu*LPBINNl t-l LeNt_1 - h}J *LPAt-I- hu*LPN t - 1-h23*LPBINAt_l h24*LPBINNl t _l -h2S "'LREERt - 1 -b26 ·LXt - 1+ b27) + a1£_B1NA*( LC_BINAt_l -b3J *LPAt - 1 - b3}*LPNt_1 -hJ3 *LPBINAt_1 - h34"'LPBINNl t _l - h3S*LREERt-1 - b36 *LXt-l -h37 ) + OLCJJJN_NJ *( LCBIN_NI I_I - h41 *LPAt -l - h 42 *LPNt_1 -ho*LPBINAt_1 - h44 *LPBJNNl t-1 - h45*LREERt_1 - h46 "'LXt - 1 - h47 ) +
UU.'N*(
uua*( LM2 t _l - os/*LPMt-1-U52*LPB t - 1-U53*LPBIN_Bt_1 -a54*LW1_1 ) + aLB*( LBt_1 - 061*LPMt-I-U61*LPBt-1 - o6J*LPBIN_Bt - I-G64*LWt_I)+ OLBBIN*( LBBIN t _! - 071*LPMI - 1 - un·LPB t_1 - 07J"'LPBIN_B t_1 a74*LWt _1 ) LYAt-I -as/*Rt-1 - uS2*(LWA t _1/LP At-d *(LPMAt-IILPA t_l ) - oS4*LPA 1- 1 ) + 01.KA*( LKA t _1-a9/*Rt-1 - a92*(L WAt-,/LPA t-l ) 093 *(LPMAt-IILPAt _l ) - 094*LPA t-1 ) + o LLA*( LLAt_1 -a/O /*Rt-l-a/Ol*(LWAt - I/LPA 1- 1) 0103 *(LPMAt_1 ILPA t_l) - 010 4*LPA t - 1 ) + ULYA*(
a83
182
GLYN·( LYN t-1-all ,·R,_1- GIJ l*(LWNI_,ILPNt _1)Gil j *(LPMNt_1ILPNI_1) - GJl4*LPNI-1 ) + GLKN*( LKN t_1-a/1 I - 1- Gll/t'(LWNt-1ILPN I - 1) a11 j *(LPMN,_tlLPNt _l) - Gn of*LPN'_1 ) + a I,LN*( LLN t_1 -aJ3 J·RI_1- OIJ2*(LWN'-IILPNt-I) -
,·R
G13
j
*(LPMNt_1ILPNt_1) -
afj
4·LPNt-1 ) +
LC_Nt_1-au ,*LREERt_1 - ON ]*LP_Nt_I - oUj*LX_BINt-1 ) + GLC_~ *( LC_At _1 - a/5/*LREERt_l-a/s ;*LP_At-l -GIS 3*LX_BINI-I) aLC N*( +~
2.4. Persamaan Barga Implisit Pemegangan Uang (M2) d(LPM)=
"~l 014 7*d(L WI-d *( LCA t_1 -b JJ *LPAI _J -hJ] *LPN'-l - h l3 "'LPBINAt_1 b14*LPBINNl t - l - bJ5*LREERt_1 - b/6*LXt - 1 - b 17 ) + GLC....·C LCN t-l - bll *LPAt _ l- bn*LPN 1- 1 - b]j*LPBINA t_1 b24 *LPBINNl t - 1 -b 2S *LREERt - 1 -b]6*LXt-l + b27) + aLC_BfNA*( LC_BINAt_1 -b3 /*LPAt-l - b32 *LPNt - 1-b33 *LPBINAt_1 - b_u-LPBINNlt_l- b3S *LREERt- 1 - b36 *LXt-1 -b37 ) + GLCBlNjJ} *( LCBIN_Nl t_l - b4l *LPAt - l - b 42 *LPN _1 ·b43 *LPBINAt - 1 - b44 *LPBINNl t - l - h4S*LREERt-l - b46 *LXt - 1 - b47' ) + aLeA
aL.',a*( LM2 t - l - Gs/*LPM t _l -os2*LPB t - 1 -Gs3*LPBIN 8 1-1 -Qs4*L WI _] ) + a,.8-( LSt_1- a6/*LPM t-l-G62*LPB t - l - a63*LPBIN_B t_1-GM*LWt_I )+ a,.,881"'*( LBBIN t _1 - a7J*LPM t _1 - a72*LPBI_1 - an*LPBIN_"St-I -
a74*LWI - 1 ) aLrA*( L YAt-I -as/-Rt-I - as]*(L WAt-tiLPA t - l ) aS3 *(LPMAt-IILPAt-I) - GS4*LPA t-1 ) + a/.KA*( LKAt_1 -a9,*Rt - 1 - a92*(LW A-dLP At-I)a93 "'(LPMA-IILPAt_l ) - a94*LPA-l ) + a 1.LA*( LLA t_1 -a1O ,*Rt-l - a/l}]*(LWAt-lILPA t-1) aW] *(LPMA-1ILPAt_l ) - GJo..{*LPA I - J ) + GLrN*(
LYN t- t -aJJ l'''Rt-1 -
Gil
all 3 *(LPMNt-1ILPN t - t )
]*(LWNt-1ILPNt_I)- aIl 4*LPNt - 1 ) +
183
LKNt _1 -an J"'Rt-1 - aJll"'(LWNt-dLPNH ) a12 3 "'(LPMNt_l/LPNH) - 012 ,,"'LPN,_l ) + LLN*( LLN t-1 -a13 I"'Rt-l - a/3 2*(LWN t - 1ILPN t -dao 3 "'(LPMN,_1/LPNt_l} - a/3 .lLPNt-1 } +
aLKN"'(
a
aLC
N*( LC_N ,_1 -a/.I1*LREERt _1 - aJ.I.2*LP_N t - ) - o/.o"'LX_BINt • 1 )
+ al£ ...; *( LC_A t- 1 - a15I*LREER.-I-aJj 2*LP_AI_I -a 15 3*LX_BINt - 1) + el 2.5. Persamaan Harga Implisit untuk Surat Berharga Domestik
d(LPB} =
"f;;] a 15 7*d(L WI-I) arc..1 *(
LeAl_I -hI! *LPA!_I - b 12 "'LPN!_I - bJ3 *LPBINA1_1 bJ.l"'LPBINNl t_1 • b/5*LREERt_l - bJ6*LXt - 1 - bI7 ) + al,(:","'( LeN t - 1 - b21 *LPAt-l- b22 "'LPN t - 1 -h23 *LPBINA _1 bu*LPBINNl t _1 -b15 *LREERt - 1-h26*LXI-l + "27)' + al.e_8IX.I*( LC_BINA t _l - b_ H*LPA'_1 - h31"'LPN t - 1 -b3.l *LPBINAt _1 - b3./LPBINNl t_,- b_u*LREERt _1 - h36*LXI_I - b 37 ) + aU:flI.'(Jo *( LCBIN_Nl t _l - b41 *LPA t - 1 - b 42 *LPN I-1 .b,o*LPBINAt _1 - b44 *LPBINN1 _1 - h4S *LREERt _1 - b46 *LXt - 1 - h47 ) + ' al.\I2*( LM2 t_1- a5,*LPM t - 1 -a5]"'LPB t - 1 -a5.1*LPBIN Bt - I -a54 *LWI_1 ) + QL8*( LB I_1-ali/*LPMt-l-G6]*LPBt_1 - a63*LPBfN_B t_1-a64*LWt_I)+ aLBBIN*( LBBIN t - 1 - a7J*LPM t _1 - a72*LPB t_1- a73*LPBIN_St_l G74"'LWt _l ) LY At-I -a,u*Rt-1 - as]*(LWAt-dLPAt _I ) *(LPMAt_l/LPAt_l) - ali.f*LPA'-1 } + aU~A*( LKA t_1 -a91*Rt - 1- G9]*(L WAt-1/LPA t_I)a9J *(LPMAt-1ILPAt_I) - G94·LPAa-1 ) + a L1.t*( LLAt_1 -aIO /*Rt~1 - a/ol*(LWAt_IILPA{_I)a/o3 *(LPMAt-1ILPAt_.) - a/o4"'LPA t _1 ) + GLYA*(
alG
LYN t _1 -alll*RI_1 - all ]"'(LWNHILPN1_1)*(LPMNt-I/LPN t _ l) - all./LPN'_I ) + a/.KN*( LKNt_1-all I·RI-1- 01] 2"'(L WNt_dLPN,_1) 0123 *(LPMNt-1ILPNt _1) - a/2 ,,"'LPN'_I } + a Ll.N"'( LLNt _1 -a/3 /*R.-I - 0/3 ]*(LWN'_IILPN,_1)a/3 3 *(LPMNt-1ILPN H ) - a/3 4"'LPN t _1 ) + OLrN*(
all 3
184
aLl: N*( LC Nt-! -a/4 ,*LREERt_1 - aI41·LP Nt- t
+ aJ.('_~
.(
LC"=-A t • 1 -
GJ5
/·LREER t _1-G/5
-
au j*LX BINt _))
j3IN,-I)
l· LP_1\..-1 -a/53· LX
+e. 2.6. Perumaan Barga (mpHst untuk Surat 8erharga Luar Negeri d(LPBIN) =
"
~I a'6 l*d(LM21_ 1) +
...
~I
4
~, al6 2*d(LB'-J)+
4
f=la/6 3*d(LBBINt_,) +
a/(j 7· d (LWI _ 1)
*( LCAt-l -hl/ *LPAt _1 -hf} ·LPNt - l - h13 ·LPBINA'_1 bu*LPBINN 11- 1 • bJ5·LREER'-1 - h '6*LXt - 1 - b17 ) + a,[\"*( LCN_I - hll *LPA t _1- h2}*LPN t _1 -h13"'LPBINA'_1 h14*LPBINNI I _I -b1S·LREERI _1 -b26*LXt - 1 + f>27) + a,r HI.V A*( LC BINAI _1 -bJ,*LPA t - 1 - h32 *LPNt - 1 -h.u *LPBINAt_l - h_u*LPBINNl t_l - h.u*LREERt-1 - h36*LXt-l -h37) + a/.cB/,\·_N' *( LCBIN_NI I _ 1 - b41 *LPAt'1 - b 42 *LPN 1- 1 -h 43 ·LPBINAt - l - h44 *LPBINNl'_1 - h45 *LREERt_. - h.Ui*LXI_' - h47 ) + all'. I
aLAn·( LM2 1- 1 - as,*LPMt - 1 -a51*LPB t - 1 -a53*LPBIN_Bt - l -Gj.s*L WI_I) + a,.8·( LB t - 1 - a6l*LPM t -.-a62*LPB t - 1 - a6/" LPBIN _Bt_l-aM*LWt _l)+ aLBBlx*( LBBIN'_l - all·LPMt_1 - an*LPB'_1 - 073*LPB1N_Bt_1 -
o74*LWH
)
aLJ"A*( LYAt-I -as,,"Rt - 1 - aSl*(L WAt-)/LP At-d a83 ·(LPMAt-lILPAt_d - a8,,*LPA-1 ) + OU.:4*( LKA t - t -G9,*Rt - l - a91"'(LWA t - 1/LPA t _I ) a9_~ "'(LPMAt-lILPAt_l) - G9,,*LPA-1 ) + o LL-I"'( LLA t - 1 -aIO ,"'RI_I - aJOz*(LWA'_lILPA'_I)OmJ *(LPMAt_1ILPA t _l ) - GJO-.I*LPA t - 1 ) + aLYJ.!*( L YNt-l -all !'''Rt _1 - aI/2"'(LWN t - 1ILPNt _I ) Gil) *(LPMNt_1ILPNt_I ) - all ..,*LPNt - 1 ) + au;.>,,"'( LKNt _1 -aIZ /*Rt _1 - a,l ]*(LWNt-1ILPNH ) a113 *(LPMNt_1ILPNt_l) - aJ] 4*LPN t - 1 ) + a LLN"'( LLN t_1 -an /*R t - l - al1z*(L WNt-I/LPN t - 1) an 3 *(LPMNt_IILPNt_1) - aJ3 .s"'LPNt-\ ) + a/..CN"'( LC_N t- 1 -a 14 ,"'LREERt_l - au 2*LP_Nt-I - a'43"'LX_BIN t _1 ) + ULC_A *( LC_At-l - aJ5,*LREERt-I-GJ5 ]*LP_At-J -GJ5J*LX_BINI_l) + ~
185
2.7. Persamaan Kesejahteraan Nominal d(LW) =
4
:E
1=1
017
r*d(L WI - l )
aLCA *( LCAt-l -b ll *LPAI _l -b/2 *LPNI _l - b/3 *LPBINAt_l bu"'LPBINNll_l - bJ5*LREERt-l - b J6 *LXt-l - b J7 ) + aLCN*( LCNt_l - b21 "'LPAt-l- b22 "'LPNt-l -b]J*LPBINAt_l bu*LPBINNI t_1 -b15 "'LREERt - 1-b16 "'LX1- l + hl7) + aLC BH:4"'( LC SINAI_l -b3J "'LPA-I - b32 *LPNt _1 -b33 *LPBINA1_l -=- b34 "'LPBINNl t _l - b_u*LREERt _1- b36*LX1-1-b37
)
+
aU'BL\'_XJ *( LCBIN_NI t _i - b41 *LPA t-1 - b42 *LPNt - i -b 43 *LPBINAt - 1 - b44 "'LPBINNl t - 1 - b4S "'LREERt-1 - h46 "'LX t-1 - b47 ) +
aua"'( LM2 t_1- a5/"'LPMt - 1 -a51*LPB t-1 -G53*LPBIN_ BI_I
-G54*LWt - 1 ) + aLB*C LB t_1 - a61*LPMt-l-G62*LPBt-1 - 063*LPBIN Bt -l-G64*LWt-!l+
LBBIN t _1- a7/"'LPM t_1 - a72*LPB t _1 - a7)"'LPBIN_B I_I o74*LWt - l )
al.IlBlN*(
-
OLYA*C LYAt - 1-asl*Rt- 1 - OS2*( LW At_I/LP At-I) a83 "'(LPMAt-1ILPAt - 1) - u8./ LPA t-l ) + aLKA"'( LKA t_1 -a9/*Rt-1- G91"'(LWA-dLPA t-1)-
09J *(LPMAt-1ILPAt_l ) - o94"'LPAt _1 ) + o UA*( LLAt _1 -a/o J*Rt-l-0102*(LWAt-1ILPAt-l)0/0) *(LPMAt_1ILPAt_d - oJ04*LPA t-l ) + LYN t- 1-all J*Rt-l - alll*(LWNt-1ILPNt - 1)ull 3 *(LPMNI-1ILPNt - 1) - AU .I*LPNI - l ) + aI.K.Io,'*( LKNt-1--a /2 }"'Rt-I - G 12 ]*( LWNt-1ILPN t - 1) all J *(LPMNt_dLPNt_l ) - aJl 4*LPN t_1 ) + o UN*( LLN t_1 -a/3 I*Rt-1- ao 2*(L WNt-I/LPNt-l ) aO) *(LPMNt-1ILPNt-l) - aJ) -I*LPN t _1 ) + GLfN"'(
aLC_N*( LC_N t _1-a141*LREERt_1 - al4]*LP_Nt_I - a/4 3*LX_BINH ) + OLC_A *( LC_At-l - 015 ,*LREERt-I-GJ5 l*LP_A t - 1 -G153*LX_BINt-1) +et
186
dimana: LM2
LogM2
LPM
Log harga irnplisit untuk pemegangan uang
LPB
Log harga irnplisit untuk surat berharga domestik
LPBIN
Log harga implisit untuk surat berbarga Juar negeri
LW
Log Wealth (kesejahteraan) Nominal
3. BIok Produksi Pertanian 3.1. Persamaan Produksi Pertanian d(LYA)=
a181·d(LYA-I) + OI81·d(LKA t - l ) + GI83*d(LLA-I)+ 018 al85 *d(LWA-I/LPAt-l ) + G,s /I *D(LPMAH/LPAt - J)+ 0187 ·d(LPAt-J)
,,*d(Rt- l ) +
*( LCAt_1 -b ll *LPA t-1 -bll·LPN t-1 -b 13 ·LPBINA'_Jbu "'LPBINNl t - J - h/5*LREERI_1 - b I6 *LX t- J - hJ7) + a1.(~N*( LCNt _1- b]J *LPA-I- hn*LPN t - 1 -b 2.?*LPBINA t _1 bu ·LPBINNl t_1 -b15 *LREERI_1 -b16 *LXt - 1 + h17) + au: B1NA.*( LC BINAt • J -h31 *LPA1• 1 - bn*LPN t _1 -bn ·LPBINA'_I -=- b.u·LPBINNl t_1- b.u*LREER'_1 - bJ6 *LXt. 1 -b37 ) + aLCBI_I.,!,v1 *( LCBIN_Nl t. J - h41 *LPAt. 1 - h42 *LPN,_\ -b 43· LPBINA,_1 - b44 *LPBINNl t_1 - b45 *LREERt • 1 - b46 *LXt_1 - b47 ) + aLeA
a[J,n*( LM2 t-J - aSI*LPM'_1 -G51*LPB1• 1-Gs3*LPBIN_B'_1 -G54*L WI.! ) + GLB·( LB I - 1- G6,*LPM1-I-a62*LPBI-1 - a6J·LPBIN_ BH -G64*L Wt - 1)+
LBBIN,_j - a7J*LPM t _1 - a72*LPB t_1 - G73*LPBIN_B'_1 au*LWt_\ )
aLBBIN*(
au:,,*( L YAt -] --a8J*Rt-1 - 081*( LWA-1/LPAt-t} a83 *(LPMAt-1ILPA1_1) - all-l*LPA t _i ) + aLKA·( LKA t - 1 -a9/*RI-1 - a91*(L WA-rlLP At-I) aY3 ·(LPMAt.J/LPA1-1) - a9-1*LPA t _\ ) + a UA*( LLAt- 1 --am J*Rt-l - am 1"'(LWAt - 1ILPA t_J)a/OJ *(LPMAt_1/LPA t _l ) - aro4*LPAt.l ) +
LYNt-1 -G1l1*R t-! - aJl 2*(L WNt.IILPNt • I)*(LPMN1-1/LPN t _1) - aJ! 4*LPNI_1 ) + al.K.I.:*( LKNt - 1-GJ2I*Rt • 1 - aJ21*(LWNt _1ILPN t _I)al]J *(LPMNt-1ILPN t • 1) - all 4*LPN t _1 ) + a LI.N*( LLN t _1 -G13 ,"'RI-1 - a/3 2*(LWNt - 1ILPNt - I) al33 *(LPMNt-1ILPN t • 1) - a/3 4*LPN t. 1 ) + GUN*(
all3
187 al,C N*( LC_N t_1 -a141"'LREERt - 1 - a14 2*LP_Nt_I - alo*LX_BIN t•1 )
+ alJ::_~ *( LC_A-I - a'5 ,"'LREERt-I-Q15 l*LP_At-I -a/53*LX_BINt-l) +~
3.2. Persamaan Permintaan Modal Sektor Pertanian
d(LKA) =
""d(L YAt-,) + a'91*d(LKA1- 1) + 019 _~·d(LLAt_l)+ 019 4*d(Rt-I) + *d(LWAt-1ILPAI_I) + 0'96 *D(LPMAt-IILPAt-I )+ al97 *d(LPAt_l) al9
a195
LCAI-1 - bJ/ ·LPAt _1 -bll ·LPN,_! - b u "'LPBINAt-l b14*LPBINNl t_1 - bJ5*LREERt_1 - b16 *LXt-1 - b17 ) + aLCA'*( LCNI _1- b 11 *LPAt-l - bll*LPN t - 1-b2.1"'LPBlNAt_! bu*LPBlNNl t_1 -b1S*LREERt-1-b16 *LXt_1 + bll) + au'- Blf,:4.*( LC- BINAI _ l -bJJ*LPAt - 1- b31 *LPNt - 1 -bn *LPBINAt_1 - h/·LPBINNl t_l - b.u*LREERt_1 - bJ6 ·LXt - 1 -hn ) + al.CBIYj./J *( LCBIN_NI ,_1 - h,,]"''LPA t-1- b42 *LPNt-1 -b"3*LPBINA t_1 - b",,*LPBINNl t_1 - h45 *LREERt _1- b4(,*LXI_1 - b'7 ) + aLC4 .(
LM2 1_l - a5,*LPM t - l -a51*LPBt - 1 -a.u*LPBIN Bl - l ) + aUI*( LBI _! - a6,*LPM t - 1-a6)* LPB I_1 - a6J*LPBIN Bt-]-a64*L WI - 1)+ aUJIJfI\'*( LBBIN t _l - a7l*LPM -l - a72*LPB t - 1 - a7J*LPBIN_BI_l ' a74*LW1- 1 ) aI.AI1*(
-a54*LW I _]
LYAI - 1-aSJ*RI_1 - all)*( LWAt-IILP AI-I) *(LPMAt-1/LPA t _ 1) - a84*LPA t-1 ) + aL/vl*( LKA t _1--a9,*Rt _ 1- u92*(LWA I_1ILPAI_1)a93 *(LPMAt-I/LPA_I) - a94*LPA t_1) + a LL4.*( LLA t _1 -a,o ,·R,_] - a/ol*(LWAt - I /LPAt _I ) alO 3 *(LPMAt_1ILPA I_1) - alO 4*LPA t - 1 ) + aru*(
a83
LYN'-l -aJJ J·R t- 1 - al/ 1*(LWNt - 1/LPN t - I ) a}1 3 *(LPMNt-1ILPNt_d - a114*LPN t-1 ) + aL}~s·( LKN t-t -a121*R I - J - alll*(LWNt_1ILPN t _ 1) aJ] 3 *(LPMNt-1/LPNt_d - all 4*LPN t - 1 ) + a LLN*( LLN t_1 -an J*Rt - 1- au 1*(LWNt_1ILPN t _l ) ~ aJ]] *(LPMNt_1ILPNt _1) - aJ3 4*LPNt-1) + aUN*(
aIFj"*( LC_NH -auI*LREERI _] - aJ41*LP_Nt-l ~ au 3* LX_BIN,_1 ) + aJ.C_A *( LC_A_I ~ al5 /*LREERt_1-a/5 l*LP_A t-! -a15 J*LX_BINt-1) + el
188 3.3. Penamaan Permintaan Tenaga Kerja Sektor Pertanian
d(LLA) =
+ a10 ]*d(LKAt-l) + a10 J·d(LLA t- l )+ a20 4*d(Rt-I) + a]O .5 *d(LWAt-1ILPA t- l ) + a20 6 *D(LPMAt-1/LPAt-l )+ a20 7 *d(LPA,_,} alD l*d(L YAt.I)
*( LeAt - l -hJJ *LPAt _1-bJ1 "'LPNt - J - bJ3 *LPBINA,_I bu*LPBINNl ,_! - bJ5*LREERt_, - hI6·LXt-1 - b J7 ) + 01£.\'*( LCNt _1- blJ *LPAt-J- b12 *LPN,_1 -b13*LPBINAt - 1 bu*LPBINNlt_1 -b2.5*LREERt _1 -b26 *LXt _1 + b]7} + aLe B[.\"..I*( LC_BINAt_! -b.u*LPAt_1 - bJ1*LPN'-1 -h]] *LPBINAt_1 ..::. h3 .,f*LPBINNl t-l- b.u*LREERt_1 - b36 *LXt_1 -b_u } + aLCBI.Y_."/ *( LCBIN_NIt-1 - b41 *LPAt - 1 - b'12*LPN t- 1 -b 43 *LPBINAt- 1 - b44 *LPBINNl t-1 - b4S *LREERt _1 - b4(;*LX'_1 - b47 ) + aLCA
aUI2*( LM2 t _!
-
051*LPMt - 1 -G5]*LPBt_1 -Q53*LPBIN Bt-I
-a54*L Wt-! ) + a/.B*( LB t - t - a61*LPMt-1-G61*LPBt - 1 - a63*LPBIN_Bt-l-a6/'LWt-l)+ a'_BBIN*( LBBIN t _l - a7l*LPMt_1 - Q7}*LPB _I - a73·LPBIN Bt - I
G74*LW t _t QL1:~*(
)
LYAt-l -o81*Rt-l - a8]*CL WAt-1/LPAt - l ) a83
-
'
-
*CLPMAt-1ILPAt-il - 084*LPAt_1 ) +
aU:A*( LKA t _1 -o91*R1- 1 - Q91*(L WAt-t/LPA t - l )
-
*(LPMA-lILPAt-d - G94-LPA t_1 ) + a LfA*( LLAt _1 -0/0 ,"'RI- l -QuJ}*CLWAt-,/LPAt - I ) al03 *(LPMA-1/LPAt_l) - a/fl.,f*LPAt_1 ) + 093
L YN t _, -aJJ I-RI-I - al/l*(LWNt - l/LPNt_I ) *(LPMNI_1ILPNt _1) - all ./"LPNt- 1 } + aua/"( LKNt _1 -aln*Rt-1 - a/2 2*(LWNt-:/LPN t - 1) al] 3 *(LPMNHILPNt - l) - an 4*LPN t - l ) + a LU,'*( LLN t _1 -au ,*Rt-I - aI31*(LWN t - 1ILPN t _I ) alB *(LPMNt-1ILPNt-d - OJ3 4· LPNt-! ) + aUN"'(
all 3
al£_.~'·(
+ OLC_A
+e.
LC_Nt_1-au J*LREER'_J - al4z*LP_Nt-I - al4 3* LX_BINt _l *( LC_At_J - aI51"'LREER{.]-G15 2*LP_At-I -Q153*LX_BINt - 1)
}
189
3.4. Penamaan Suku 8uoga Sektor Pertanian d(R) =
l*d(L YAt-l) + a]1 ]*d(LKAt _l }+ all 3*d(LLA-d+ a21 /"d(Rt-l) + "'d(LWAt-1ILPAt - 1) + a;11 6 *D(LPMAt_1/LPA_l)+ all 7 *d(LPAt-I)
all
all 5
aLCA
*( LeAt-l -bJl *LPAt_1 -bIZ "'LPNt _1 - b/3 "'LPBINA_I-
b14*LPBINNl t - 1 - b J5 *LREER._l - b I6 *LX t_1 - b/7 ) + LCNt-! - b21 *LPAt_l- bn*LPNt-l -bl3*LPBTNA'-1 b14*LPBINNl t - 1 -b2s*LREERt _1 -b26 *LXt - l + b27 ) + aLe BINA*( LC BINAt_1 -b 3 /*LPA t _l - b)l*LPN t_i -b 33 *LPBINAt_l ~ b.~4*LPBlNNlt_l- b3S *LREERt -l - b36 *LX1- 1 -b37 ) + aLCBIN.NI *( LCBlN_NI t _1 - b41*LPA-1 - b 42 *LPNt - 1 -b.o*LPBINA t_1 - b44 *LPBINNl'.1 - b4 s*LREERI_1 - b46 *LXt - 1 - b47 ) +
aLC,v'*(
au.ll*(
LM2 t - l - aSJ*LPM t - l -as/t'LPB'_l -ajJ*LPBIN _B I-1
-G5J*L W t - I ) + aL8*(
LB\.I - a6/*LPMt - 1-G61*LPBt-1 - a63*LPBIN_Bt-l-a6.1*LWt-l)+ • an* LPB 1_1 - an*LPBIN _ Bt - I -
al..BBlN*( LBBIN t _1- Q7J*LPMt-1 au*LW t- 1 ) al.[4*( LYA-I -G81*Rt - 1 •
aSl"'(L W At-dLP AI']) *(LPMAt_1ILPA t _ l ) - ax../*LPA I_1 ) + aLK.4.*( LKA t- 1 -G91*Rt • 1- a91*(L WA-dLPA t - 1) U93 *(LPMAt_I/LPAt_l) - u9/"LPA-] ) + a Ll..4*( LLA-l -a /(I I*Rt - 1 - aw ;*(L WAt-1/LPAt_d a 103 *(LPMA'_l/LPA-I) - a 10 ./LPA t - 1 ) + a83
aUN*( LYNI- l -au J*R t - 1- all 1*(LWNt-dLPNt _1) all 3 *(LPMNt-j/LPNt _ l ) - alJ ..,*LPN'-J ) + . aU~N*(
LKN t_1 -GI] ,*Rt - I - al2 2*(LWNt - IILPNt-I)*(LPMNt-JILPN t-l ) - al2 4"'LPN I-1 ) + a LLN*( LLN t - 1 -a/3 ,*Rt - I - a]3 l*(LWNt-1ILPN t - 1) 0133 *(LPMNt-IfLPNt_l) - aH /"LPN t - 1 ) + all3
al£-",.*( LC_NI _1 -GUJ*LREER -J - a/4 z*LP_N t - J - au /'LX_BIN t _1 ) ' a IS 2*LP_A - ·a}53*LX_BlN _ ) + OLC_A *( LC_A t - J - aI5,*LREERt-JIJ t l +~
190
3.5. Perumaan Upab Riil Tenaga Kerja Sektor Pertanian
d(LW NLPA)=a12 J*d(L y At-I) + a]1 ]*d(LKAt-d+ on 3*d(LLA t - 1}+au 4*d{Rt-1) + au 5 *d(LWA-IILPAt-d + a2} /I *D(LPMAt_1/LPA_I}+ an 7 *d(LPAt - l) *( LCA-l -hll "'LPAt - 1-b ll "'LPN'_1 - hl3 *LPBINA t_1bu*LPBINNl t-1- bJ5*LREERt_1 - b J6*LXt-1 - b 17 ) + aLCN*( LCN t-1- b1J *LPA-I- h]2*LPN'-1 -h 2J *LPBINA t_l bu *LPBINNl t - 1 -b15 *LREERt-1-b 16 *LXt - 1+ h17) + a/CA
LC_BINAt - l -b_u*LPAt-l - bJ]*LPN t - l -bJJ *LPBINAt _1 - bN*LPBINN I t - I - b.u*LREERI-l - b36 *LXt-l -b_u ) + 01.emN "'I *( LCBIN_Nl t_1 - b41 *LPAH - h42*LPN t - 1-h 43 *LPBINAt - 1 - b«*LPBINNl t_1 - b4j *LREERt_1 - b46 *LXt - 1 - h47 ) + al.(:8IN..I*(
LM2 t _1- Cl5J*LPM t - 1 -052*LPB t - 1 -G53*LPBIN_Bt _1 -05..f*LWH ) + 01.8*( LB t _ 1- Cl6J*LPMI-1-G6J*LPBI-i - a63*LPBIN_B t-1-G6-/*LW t _I)+ aLBRliV*( LBBIN t _1 - Cl7I*LPMt_1 - Cl72*LPBt-1 - Cl73*LPBIN BI_IG7..f*LW t - 1 ) OW1*(
Ol.r.,"'( LYA t - 1 ~1I1*Rt-l - 0~2*(LWA_dLPAt_I)
*(LPMAt_1/LPAt_d - as.J*LPA I-J ) + LKA t - 1 ~9/*Rt-1 - G9J"'(LWAI_I/LPA t _1)(193 *(LPMA t _1/LPA t _1) - u9.J*LPA t _1 ) + o LLl *( LLA t _1 -a J(I J*R t - 1- QU/l*(L WAt-J/LPA t- l ) UjO.l *(LPMAt_1/LPAt_l ) - aI04*LPA-1 ) + CI/J.I
OLKA"'C
LYN t-l -aIlJ*Rt-J - all /'(LWNt-J/LPN t - l ) *(LPMNt-1ILPNt-d - aIl4*LPN t - 1 ) + OrK,v*( LKN t _1 -a12 J*Rt-l - 0/.?2*(LWNt _dLPN t _I)al}J *(LPMNt _1ILPN t_1) - aJ] ,f*LPN t-1 ) + CI LL'v*( LLN t _1 -013 I*Rt-1 - a13 J*(L WNt_1ILPN t _I ) al33 *(LPMNt-dLPNt_d - al3 .f·LPN t - 1 ) + Ql.17..... (
UI1_~
LC_ Nt-l --au /"LREERt-1 - a141*LP_N t - 1 - au 3* LX_BINt_1 ) *( LC_A_I - aJ5 ,*LREERt_I-GI5 z*LP_At-I -aI53*LX_BINt_1)
Ql.Cj"*(
+ aU.'-,,4 +et
191
3.6. Persamaan Harga Riil Material Sektor Pertanian
d(LPMNLPA)=a13,*d(LY At-I)+ a]3 2*d(LKAt-I)+ 02J J*d(LLAt-l)+aU .ld(R.-l}+ 023 j *d(LWAt-IILPAt_t) + a]3 6 *D(LPMAt-1ILPAt - l }+ an 7 *d(LPAt_I) *( LCAt _1 -b ll *LPAt _1 -b12 ·LPNt_! - bfj *LPBINA-I bu*LPBINNl t -! - b/s*LREER._I - bJ6 *LXt_! - b 17 ) + OLeN*( LCNt_1 - bll *LPAt_l- b]]*LPNt_1 -b 23 *LPBINAt _l bu*LPBINNI t-1 -b2S *LREERt _1 -b26 *LXt-! + b27) + aLe BINA*( LC BINAI_! - b31 *LPAt-1 - b3}*LPNt _! -bn *LPBINAt_! .= b3.lLPBlNNl t - 1- b3S *LREER.-l - b36 *LXt _1 - b_n ) + aU::BIN Nl *( LCBIN NIt_I - b41 *LPAt_1 - b4 2*LPN t _1 -b 43*LPBINA-1 - h44 *LPBINNl t _1 - b45 *LREER.-1 - b 46 *LXt_1 - b47 ) + al.CA
auo*( LM2 t _1 - a51*LPM t _1 -a5}*LPBt-I -a53*LPBIN_Bt - 1
-oj./*LWt _1 ) + aUI*( LB t _1 - a61*LPMt - I-G62*LPBt _1 - o63*LPBIN Bt-1-G64*LW t - l)+ OI_B81N*( LBBIN'_l - a71*LPM t - 1 - a7}*LPB'-1 - G73*LPBIN_B t - 1 G7-I*LWI _l ) LYAt-I -a81*Rt-l - G81*(L WA-IILP At - l ) a83 *(LPMAt-1ILPA t - 1) - o,
ou,.,,*( LYN t - l -a1l,*R.-1 - 01/ ]*(L WNt-I/LPNt - I ) all.? *(LPMNt-JILPNt - l ) - 0IJ 4*LPNt - 1 ) + a,xv*( LKN t _1 -alll*Rt - l - a12 2*(L WNt-1ILPN t _ I) all.? *(LPMNt_1ILPN t _1) - Ol} ,,*LPN t _1 ) + G UN·( LLN t _J -a13/*RI_1 - 0/3 }*(LWNt-dLPNt_I ) G13 3 *(LPMNt-1/LPN t _l) - 0/3 4*LPNt - 1 ) + aI.C)':*( LC_N t_1 -a14,*LREERI _1 - o14l'''LP_Nt - l - Gln*LX_BIN t.! + ou,-,.! *( LC_AH - 015 /*LREERt-1-G1S 2*LP_At-l -GJ53"'LX_BINt _l )
+ et
)
192
3.7. Persamaan Barga Komoditas Pertanian d(LPA)
au J*d(L YAt-I)+ au z*d(LKAt-I )+ au 3*d(LLAt - l )+a24 au s *d(LWAt_1ILPAt_l ) + a24 6 *D(LPMAt_1/LPAt_I )+ au 7
4*d(R.:-I)+
*d(LPAt-d
*( LCAt-l -b ll *LPAt-l -b 12 *LPNt-l - b}3 *LPBINAt_l b u *LPBINNl t _1 - bJs*LREERt_l - b/6*LXt-l - b 17 ) + aLCN*( LCN t_1- b2J *LPAt-l- bll*LPN t-l -b23 *LPBINAt-l bu*LPBINNI t _1-bzs*LREERt-l -bZ6 *LXt-l + bZ7) + au: B1NA*( LC BINAt_l -bn*LPAt-l - bn*LPN t-1 -h33 *LPBINAt_1 - b34*LPBINNl t-l- b_u'LREERt_l - bJ6 *LXt-l -b37 ) + aLCBIN_NI *( LCBIN_NI t_l - b4 ,*LPAt-l - b 42 *LPN t-1 -b 43 *LPBINAt-l - b44 *LPBINN It-I - b45 *LREERt_1 - b46 *LXt- 1 - b47 ) + aLCA
LM2 t - l - os/*LPMt _1 -osz*LPB t-1 -oJ3*LPBIN_B t-l -oj.,f*LWt-l ) + OIJJ*( LB t-l - 06J*LPMt-l-06Z*LPBt-l - 063*LPBIN Bt-1-a64*LWt-.)+ OLBBlX*( LBBIN t _ 1 - 071*LPM t - 1 - 072*LPB t - 1 - o7J*LPBIN_B t_l 0l./*LWt - 1 ) 0012*(
ULlA*( LYAt -] -Q8J*Rt-l - a8]*( LW At-l/LPA t-1)
-
*(LPMAt-lILPAt - l) - QIi.J*LPAt-l ) + aLK~*( LKA t _l -a91*R t-1 - a92*(L WAt-dLPA t -!) Q9_~ *(LPMAt _1ILPA t _1) - ap.s*LPA t-1) + a I.u*( LLA t_1 -aw J*R t-1- oj()]*(LWAt-l/LPAt-dauu *(LPMAt-1/LPAt-d - oJo.s*LPA t_1 ) + aS3
Oux*(
LYN I_1 -all J*R t - 1- 011 ]*(LWNI-dLPN t-1) 01/ 3 *(LPMNt-lILPNt - l) - 01/ ./LPNt - l ) +
LKNt _l -01] I*RI-l - af} 1*(LWNt-1/LPNt-1) Q12J *(LPMNt-1ILPNt-d - all 4*LPNt-l ) + LL,\,*( LLNt_l -013 J*R t-1 - 013 l*(L WN t-1/LPN t -l) au 3 *(LPMNt-1/LPNt-l) - 013 .s*LPN t-1 ) +
QU:X*(
Q
QLCjv*( LC_N t _1 -al./ I*LREERt-l - 0/4 ]*LP_N t - l - oJ./3*LX_BINt_1 ) + aLCA *( LC_At - J - 0151*LREERt - l -aJ5 2*LP_At-I -al53*LX_BINt- 1) + et
193
dimana: LY A
Log Produksi Pertanian.
R
SukuBunga
LPA
Log Harga Output Pertanian.
LW AlLPA
Log Upah Riil Tenaga Kerja Sektor Pertanian
LPMAILPA
Log Harga Riil Material yang dibayar Petani
LKA
Log Kredit lnvestasi Pertanian
LLA
Log lumlah Tenaga Kerja di Sektor pertanian
4. Blok Produksi non Pertanian 4.1. Persamaan Produksi non Pertanian d(LYN) =
2
2
La}5 l*d(L YNt-d+
La}52*d(LKN t - l )+ La}5.,*d(LLNt _d+
t"'l
2
La}5 4*d(Rt -I)+
t= 1
2
2 LaZ5 1=1
2
1=1
t=1
5 *d(LWNI_1/LPN'_I) + 2
La}5
6
~1
*d(LPMNt_jILPN t _I )+ LUZ57*d(LPN 1_ 1) ~1
*( LCA'_1 -bl/ *LPA _1 -bJ2 "'LPN'_1 - b13 *LPBINA'_1 ' b/4*LPBINNl t _1 - b 15*LREER t_1 - b 16 "'LXI _1 - b17 ) + a/,c:v*( LCN t _1 - bl l *LPAt · ,- b}}*LPNt_1 - b}3*LPBlNA_jbu*LPBlNNl'_1 -b1S*LREERt_1 -h16 *LX'_1 + h}l ) + aLC_BINA*( LC_BINA t _1-h31*LPAt-l - b3Z *LPNt - 1-b 33 *LPBINAt _1 - b3.lLPBINNl t _1- b.u *LREERt_l - b36*LXt_1 -b37 ) + OI£'RlN ,'iiI *( LCBlN Nl t_l - b41 *LPA'_1 - b 42 *LPN I_1 -b 4J *LPBINA1_1 - h« *LPBINN 11- 1 - b45 *LREERt_l - b46 *L~-l - b47 ) + aU'A
a/~lf2*(
LM2 1_1 - a5l*LPM t - l -a5z*LPB H -a53*LPBIN_B t _1 -a54*L W I - l ) + aLB*( LB'_I - a6,*LPM t - 1-a6} * LPBt-1 • a63"'LPBIN_ Bt-1-a64'*L WI - I )+ aLBBllI!"'( LBBIN,_I - a71*LPM t - 1 - o71*LPB'_l - a73*LPBIN_ Bt - I a74*LW t - l ) aHA"'( LYAt-I -as/*Rt-l - asz*(L WA'_I/LPA t_I)a/j3 "'(LPMAt_,/LPA_l) - oS4*LPAt - i ) + au;.A,*(
LKAt-J -a9,*Rt -\ - a92*(L WA,-dLPAt_I ) *(LPMAt·llLpAt_I) - Q94*LPAt - 1 ) +
093
-
194 a U.A*( LLA t - 1 -a/O ,*RI_I-a'O]*(LWAI_IILPAt_I)a/O 3 *(LPMAt_l/LPAt_J) - a/o4*LPA-l ) +
aLY/.l( LYN t-l -all ,"'RI - 1 - all ]*(L WNt_I/LPN t_I) all 3 *(LPMN t-I /LPN t-l) - a" .lLPNt -l ) + aU:'N*( LKN I- 1 -allJ"'R t- 1 - aJ21*(LWN'_I/LPN l _1) all J *(LPMNt - 1/LPN t - 1) - al] 4*LPN t-l ) + a UN*( LLN t-1 -a}31*Rt_l-al31*(LWNt_I/LPN'.I)a 133 *(LPMNt-I/LPN t - 1) - G 13 4*LPNt-1 ) + au' ,.:*( LC_N,_I -au I*LREERI _L - au ]*LP_N t - l - aJ43*LX_BINt-l ) G/j I*LREER I _1-G15 ]*LP_At - l -015 J*LX_BINt_l) + el
+ al.c_.~ *( LC_At _1 -
4.2. Persamaan Permintaan Modal Sektor non Pertanian d(LKN) =
2 LCl]6 t=1
2
,·d(L YNt-d+
2
2
'£U26 ~*d(LKN,_d+
La]6/"d(LLN t - 1)+
lel
(=1
2
La]6 4*d(Rt -d+
1=1
'
2 LU16 6 1=1
La26 5 t=i
*d(LWNt_I/LPN t _ l ) + 2
*d(LPMNt_l/LPNI_I}+ UJ]67*d(LPN 1- 1) 1=1
*( LCAt-l -hJJ *LPA _I -b ll *LPN t - l - b l3 *LPBINAt _1 ' bu*LPBINNl t _1 - b'5*LREER t _1 - b/6*LX t - 1 - bl7 ) + aLeN*( LCN t_1 - b}/ "'LPAt • l - b21 *LPNt _1 -h23*LPBINAt-l hu*LPBINNl t_1 -h 1j*LREERt -l -b}6*LXt_1 + b17} + aLC_BINA*( LC_BINA_l -bJJ*LPA1_l - bJ}*LPN t - l -b33 *LPBINAt_1 - hJ./"LPBINNl t - l - h3S*LREERt_l - h36*LXt-l -b37 ) + aU_'BIN_NI *( LCBIN_Nl t _ 1 - h41 *LPAt-1- b42 *LPN t - 1 -b 4l *LPBINAt-1 - b44 "'LPBINNl t - 1 - b45 *LREERt _1- b46*LXt-l - b47 ) + aU'A
LM21_1 - aSI*LPM _1 -a52*LPB t _1 -G53*LPBIN_B t -1 ' -a54*L WI-I) + aLB*( LBt-l - a6/*LPMI - 1-a62*LPB t-l - a63*LPBIN_B t _1-G64*LWt_I )+ aLBBIN*( LBBIN t _1 - a7l*LPM t _1 - a71*LPB t - 1 - a73*LPBIN_B t_1 aJ.l*L WI_I) al..'\11*(
aU"A*( LYAt - 1 -a8,*Rt - 1 - as]*(L WA,_IILPAt _l )
-
*(LPMAt_1ILPA t _l ) - aS4*LPA1- 1 ) + OLKA*( LKA t_1-a91*R.-I - a92*(L WAt_l/LPAt-I) a93 *(LPMAt_1ILPA_J) - G94*LPA I - l ) + aS3
195
a
LL.j*( LLAt_l aW]
-aJO J*Rt-1 - aJO ]*(LWAt_1ILPAt_I)·(LPMAI_IILPAt_I)-alOl'LPAt_l)+
aLJN*( LYN t-1-all ,·RI _1- a1/ 2*(LWN,-,ILPNt-I ) al/3 *(LPMNt_1/LPNt _l ) -aI/4·LPNt-l ) + Quu./'( LKN t - l -all J*Rt-1 - QJ}}*(LWN1_1ILPNt _l ) aJn ·(LPMNt - 1ILPN t -1) - all ... *LPNt-1 ) + a LLV*( LLN t _l -a/3/*Rt-I-aJJ2·(LWNt-IILPNt-daJ.! 3 ·CLPMNt-1ILPNt - 1) - aJ34*LPN t- 1 ) + aLC }i.( LC Nt - l -au I*LREER t_1 - aJ4 ]*LP_N t-l - aJ4 J*LX_BINt-l ) + a[£ _.~ *( LC"=-A t _l - a/5,*LREERt - l-a15 1*LP_At-I -a/53*LX_BINt-l) + e,
4.3. Persamaan Permintaan Tenaga Kerja Sektor non Pertanian d(LLN) =
2
2
Lall ,·d(L YNI - 1)+
Lan 2*d(LKNt-l )+ Lan 3·d(LLN t _I)+
l= l
2
2
(='I
,"'I
2
La27 4*d(Rt-I )+ Lan 5 *d(LWNt-1/LPNt-l } + 1"'1 1"'1 2
2
Lall 1=1
6
*d(LPMNt_l/LPNt-i)+ 'Lal7 7*d(LPN t_]) 1= 1
a/.n *C LeAt _] -hJ/ *LPAt-l - hI} *LPNt-1- h13 *LPBINAt_1 bu*LPBINNl t_1 - hJ5*LREER t_1 - b J6*LXt - l - b J7 ) + - h1, *LPA t - r bn*LPN t-1 -b l3*LPBINAt_Ib24*LPBINNtt-! -h}5*LREERt_1 -h16*LXI_I + b27} + a[£_81,I0,:4*( LC_BINA t _1-b3J *LPAt _1- hJ2 *LPNt - 1 -h_u *LPBINAt_l - b34*LPBINNl t - 1- b.,U*LREERt_1 - b36*LXt - 1 -b 37 ) + a[£BI.V .loll *( LeBIN_Nl t_1 - b41 *LPAt-l - b42 *LPNt - 1 -b 43 *LPBINAt _1 - b 44 *[PBINNl t_l - b45 ·LREERt _) - b46 *LXt-l - b47 ) +
al£s*( LCN t _]
aLW*( LM2 t_1 - a5J*LPM'_1 -a5}*LPB'_1-a53*LPBIN Bt-I -a54*LWt - 1 )+
LB t _) - a6/*LPMt_l-a61*LPBt_l - a63*LPBIN_ B1-1-a64*L WI _])+ LBBIN t _l - a71*LPM t-1 - an*LPB t _1 - a73*LPBIN_Bt_l an* LWt - 1 )
aLB*( aL881.\'*(
LYAt - l -as/*RI_I - aSl*(LW At-IILP At-I} *(LPMAt_1ILPAt _ l ) - a84*LPA'-1 ) + aLK-'*( LKA t _1 -a9/*Rt-l-a91*(LWAt-tfLPAt-I)a93 *(LPMA-1ILPA-I) - a9./ LPA-1 ) + ULl"A.*(
aS3
196 a Ll..A*( LLA I_1 --a,o ,*Rt-I - a/O /'(LWAt_1ILPA t _J) alO 3 *(LPMAt_I/LPA-I) - a/O 4*LPA t -l ) + aLm*( LYN t - 1 --a1l1*Rt-1 - au ;*(LWNt_dLPN t _I)
-
*(LPMNt-1/LPNt _l ) - al/.lLPNt- 1 ) + LKN t- 1 -al} I*RI_! - aJ] }*(LWN,_1 /LPN t_I)a/1 J *(LPMNI_1ILPNt _\) - a/1 4*LPN 1- 1 ) + a UN*( LLNt_1 -a/3I*Rt-1 - al31*(LWNt - 1ILPN t - 1) a/3 J *(LPMN'_I/LPNt _.) - Go 4*LPN t - 1 ) + all 3
aUN*(
aLC_N*( LC_N t _\ -aul*LREER t _1 - aJ-I2*LP_N t -1 - aJ.l3*LX_BINt_1 ) + GLC_A *( LC_At _1- a/5 J*LREERt-1-G15 }*LP_At-I -GIS 3*LX_BINt _l ) +~
4.4. Persamaan Suku Bunga Sektor non Pertanian 2
2
d(R) =
L.a211 ,·d(L YN t - I )+
1=1
2
Lal8
t~l
·deLKNt_l)+
2
2
Lal8 3*d( LLN1-l)+ ,=1
2
L.a l8 4*d(Rt - I )+ I. a l8 s *d(L WNt-1/LPNt-d +
t=1
t"l
2
2
L.al8
IS
*d(LPMN'-I/LPNt _1)+ I. a18 7*d(LPNt - 1) pi
~I
*( LCAI _1 -hI! *LPA t - 1 - hI) *LPN'_I - b/3 *LPBINA'_Ib14*LPBINNI'_1 - b/5*LREERt _1 - hI6*LXt_1 - b17 ) + au:?''''( LCN,_I - b]J *LPA-l- b12*LPN I - 1 -b 1]*LPSINA'_Ib14*LPBINNl t _1 -b;s*LREER'_1 -h16*LXt-l + b27) + aJ.J:_BIl'U*( LC_BINA t_l - b_1/*LPA-1 - b_~;*LPNt_l - b_u *LPBINAt _1 - h34*LPBINNl t - 1- b_u*LREERt - 1 - b J6 *LXt-l -b 37 ) + OJ£BIN .1o,'J *C LCBIN NIl_I - b41 *LPA t -l - b.12 *LPN I_1 -b43 *LPBINA t_1 - b«*LPBINNl'_1 - h45*LREERI_1 - h 46 *LX1_1 - b47 ) + af.£A
LM2 t _1 - a5J*LPM1_1 -as.?*LPB I -1 -as3*LPBIN_Bt _1 -as4*LW'_1 )+ aLB*( LB t_1 - a6J*LPMt-I-06l*LPBt-l - G63*LPBIN_B t _I-G64*LWt _l )+ OLBBIN*C LBBIN t _1 - a7l*LPM t_1 - an*LPB _1 - Q73*LPBIN _BI _I ' Q74*LW,-1 ) OLW*(
QU:4*( L YAt-l --asl*Rt - 1 - a81*(L WAt-dLPAI _.)aS3
*(LPMAt-1ILPA-I) - a8.J*LPA t - 1 ) +
aU:A*( LKA_I --a9/*Rt-l - Q91*(L WA-1/LPA t - 1) a93
*(LPMA_1/LPA t • .) - Q9.s*LPAt - 1 ) +
-
