08. Uniformity Globalisation. Diversity Regionalisation. Materialistic Consumptive

11/13/08

Faculty of Geosciences – Utrecht University


Temperatuurstijging alleen met grote inspanning te beperken

Klimaatbeleid EU



Idealistic

Idealistisch / im-materieel Absoluut Idealisme Kerk; institutionele religie Overheid; EU, UN Bureaucratie

Subjectief Idealisme Civil society Gedrag Sociaal Dilemma Diversiteit Regionalisering

Uniformiteit Globalisering Modernisme Consumptie Economie Vrije markt WTO Wetenschap Technologie / Complexiteit

Uniformity Globalisation

Diversity Regionalisation

Post-Modenisme Burger Fort Europa Culturele blokken Conflict

Materialistisch

Materialistic Consumptive

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2nd element: Broaden participation


IPCC-TAR: Risks of climate change increase with temperature change

The severity of the adverse impacts will be larger for greater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases and associated changes in climate.



Mogelijke veranderingen in de beschikbaarheid van water over de hele wereld tegen het einde van de 21e eeuw

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UNFCCC Climate negotiations

•  Slow multi-lateral UN process with many 224 UN countries –  Agreement must be unanimously (one country can block agreement) –  1992: Objective ‘stabilize GHG concentration at non-dangerous level’ –  1997: Kyoto Protocol: -5.2% compared to 1990-levels –  2001: USA and Australia reject Kyoto Protocol –  2003: ratification Kyoto Protocol (signed by Russia) –  2006: discussions start for post-2012 agreement –  2007 Bali conference •  Different position of countries –  EU takes the lead in climate negotiations (EU 2 degree target) –  USA focus on economic development/technology (no climate policy) –  G-77 (including China) economic development first (Annex I needs to take the lead, Article 3.1 UNFCCC) –  Least developing countries most severely affected by climate change (least capacity)

• 

Peak of emissions 2015-2020

• 

In 2020, global emissions may increase to: 20% [15-25] -450

35% [30-40] -550 above 1990 levels • 

In 2050, global emissions have to be reduced by 35% [25-45]

-450 5% [0-10] - 550 below 1990 levels

•  Started July 2005, participants account for 50% global emissions •  agreed to cooperate on technologies including energy efficiency, clean coal, carbon capture and storage, methane capture and use, civilian nuclear power, advanced transportation, agriculture and forestry, hydropower, wind, solar, …. .

Almost Business as Usual

•  Targets focus on emission intensity •  Leads to almost no reductions compared to baseline emissions


Post-2012 regimes (about 40-50 regimes)

Cap & Trade –  Contraction & Convergence (GCI)* –  Common-but-differentiated Convergence (Ecofys, MNP) –  Brazilian Proposal (Brazil)* –  Multi-stage (MNP)* –  Ability to Pay (MIT) –  CSE convergence (India) –  South-North dialogue Proposal –  Triptych approach (University Utrecht, Ecofys)* –  Multi-Criteria Convergence –  Grandfathering (OECD countries) –  Global compromise

den Elzen and Lucas, 2005, The FAIR model, Environmental Modelling Assessment

Pathways



Asia Pacific Partnership on development and climate (APPCDC): initiative by USA, Australia, China, India, Japan, South-Korea

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Triptych

2.5 x

VS

EU



Emission reductions Reduction below 1990 levels

450 ppm CO2-eq

Annex I Non-Annex I

550 ppm CO2-eq

Annex I Non-Annex I

(bp.com)

2020

-5%

-35%

20-30% reduction compared to baseline LAM, ME and China

+10%

-20%

20-30% reduction for LAM and ME

2050

-70%

-90%

60-80% reductions for LAM, ME and China, and lower for Africa and India

-50%

-70%

50-70% reductions for LAM, ME and China

LAM: Latin America, ME: Middle East

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• 

Stabilizing GHG concentration at low levels in order to meet 2 degree target technically feasible possible with ‘known techniques’

• 

Pay-off between costs and certainty of meeting 2°C:

Mitigation costs (as % of GDP) (5% discount rate)

Chance of meeting 2°C

650 ppm CO2-eq

0.2% [0.1-0.4]

12% [0-25]

550 ppm CO2-eq

0.7% [0.3-0.9]

34% [5-50]

450 ppm CO2-eq

1.2% [0.5-1.5]

54% [15-70]

If the world population would change to a low meat diet, mitigation costs (450 ppm) would be reduced with 50 %


European Commission: at least 20% for the EUEC proposes that the EU pursues in the “The context of international negotiations the objective of 30% reduction in GHG emissions by developed countries by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels). Until an international agreement is concluded, 30% (unilateral) and without prejudice to itsreduction position in international negotiations, the EU should 20% (unilateral) or already now take on a firm reduction independent commitment to achieve at least a 20 % 30% reduction (multi-lateral) reduction of GHG emissions by 2020”


den Elzen, Meinshausen and van Vuuren, 2006, Multi-gas emission envelopes, GEC

Costs


Klimaat- en energiedoelen Onderwerp

Regeerakkoord

Europese Commissie

-30%

-20% EU unilateraal; -30% alle ontwikkelde landen

2% per jaar

2,7% per jaar (2007 – 2020)

20% van het totale energiegebruik

20% van het totale energiegebruik

Klimaat

Energiebesparing

Hernieuwbare energie


EU’s 2°C target •  “[...] the Council believes that global average temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial level and that therefore concentration levels lower than 550 ppm CO2 should guide global limitation and reduction efforts. [...]”(1939 th

Council meeting, Luxembourg, 25 June 1996)

•  “REAFFIRMS that, with a view to meeting the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [...] to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, overall global annual mean surface temperature increase should not exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit high risks, including irreversible impacts of climate change; RECOGNISES that 2°C would already imply significant impacts on ecosystems and water resources [...]” (2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004 Council 2004, 25-26 March 2004)

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•  • 


EU: current environmental policies have 5% effect

CO2-changes in industry and energy only loosely related to environmental politics Efficiency improvement rate is slowing down



Future climate policy per world vision

EU climate policy •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Extensive European Climate Change Programme EU emission trading system Monitoring mechanism fully implemented Promotion and targets for renewable energy Special stimuli for cogeneration Directive on biofuels Standards for energy performance in buildings Regulations for Fluorinated gases Eco-efficiency standards for products (porposal) for a directive on energy end use efficiency

•  •  •  •  • 

Cap and trade Multi-lateral regime Environmental effectiveness Emissions trading Broadening participation

Globalisation

•  •  •  •  • 

Bottom-up (technology) Technology transfer Economic effectiveness Other priorities Palette of types of action (menu)

•  •  •  • 

No coordinated action Low target Limited emissions trading CDM continues

Regionalisation

•  Impasse •  No climate agreement

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Tensions and trade-offs: targets

•  Reliable versus affordable –  Influence of market liberalisation? Low prices and security of supply: do they go along? •  Technology and reliability / security of supply / clean –  Will technology in a world with low prices for fossil fuels develop towards environmental demands?


Emission trading in practice: the case of NL en EU Differences in attitude become apparent: •  A1: wants high caps to keep the costs down (industry and LPF) AND reduce government intervention •  A2: no negative effect on industry (vs. other world regions) •  B1: will the ceilings be strict enough to attain envir. Goals? Does it work? •  B2: national authorities have too little influence, loss of local synergy

•  Safe and Clean versus affordable –  Internalisation of external costs?


World visions on Emission trading Basis principle of emission trading is supported from different world visions BUT with different motives: •  A1: international approach and opportunities tot reduce costs •  A2: rather not, but it enhances markets to work and could be applied regionally •  B1: secure emission ceilings and opportunity for “just” allocation of emission credits and obtain support from society for climate policy


European Emission trading system •  ETS entered into force 25 October 2003 –  First compliance period 2005-2007 –  Second compliance period 2008-2012 •  Covers all 25 Member States –  Installing specific caps –  Power and heat, refineries, chemical metal, paper and pulp industries, minerals; 11.400 installatations, 2.1 Gton CO2/yr –  4000 companies –  Review autumn 2006 •  May link to schemes in Norway, US states, Japan •  Link with CDM from 2005, with JI from 2008 (100 countries) •  By far the largest cap&trade system ever

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Klimaatprobleem internationaal oplosbaar

Share in primary energy use

The energy transition in world history 1850-2000


…and one possible continuation to 2100:

the B1 Global Cooperation future

Share in primary energy use


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National Policies Netherlands


CO2-projections for the Netherlands

•  •  •  • 

Covenants with industry, changing to emission trading Fiscal incentives for buying efficient cars High energy efficiency standards for new buildings Growing energy tax for non-industrial users (as from 1996) •  Subsidy schemes for energy savings older buildings •  fiscal incentives for renewables + subsidy •  More instruments to reduce a.o. non CO2-greenhouse gases



Energiebesparing, kernenergie en CO2-opslag belangrijkste categorieën in 2020

Effect Broeikasgassen [Mton CO2-eq] 90 80

Hernieuwbare energie CO2-opslag opwekking CO2-opslag processen WKK Brandstofsubstitutie Rendement opwekking Kernenergie Volume- en structuureffecten Besparing finaal OBG-opties

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Niveau 2010

-6%

-15%

-25%

reductie broeikasgassen

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Mogelijke emissiereducties in de sectoren Effect Broeikasgassen [Mton CO2-eq]

Emissiereductie directe emissies naar sector in 2020 t.o.v. referentiescenario in 2020

reductie broeikasgassen

niveau 2010

-6%

-15%

-25%


Kosten emissiereductie broeikasgassen meenemen Uitsluiten opties is duur


Tegenvallers: -  Ambitie 20 % biobrandstoffen in het verkeer kan niet worden waargemaakt -  EU besluitvorming CO2 –auto’s 2012 en 2020 nog niet afgerond !! -  BPM-differentiatie personenauto’s geleidelijk. -  Per saldo voor overige broeikasgassen hogere emissies

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Energievoorziening


Huge uncertainty


Pathways for major energy carriers

Peak oil period

Is the ‘clock-like’ Hubbert-curve predicting a world oil-peak soon? See www.peakoil.com

2005

2007 TIMER/IMAGE model analysis

Peak gas period

Source: Van Vuuren 2007

(Hirsch 2008)

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Energie; olieprijs 10% of 2000 oil production

:

Afnemende verhouding zoeken / vinden Prospects for unconventional (liquid) energy carriers… (IEA 2006/Everts 2008)



Spanningen bij de biomassa-transitie

•  Keurmerken / fair-trade voor biomassa (B1)

•  Creëren van een wereldmarkt voor biomassa (A1)

•  Biomassa uit eigen regio / zelfvoor-ziening (B2)

•  Toepassing biomassa tegen zo laag mogelijke kosten (A2)

Electricity from biomass: locations and production costs in a A1scenario by 2050 (Hoogwijk 2004)

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Electricity from solar-PV: locations and production costs

Electricity from wind: locations and production costs in an A1scenario by 2050 (Hoogwijk 2004)

(De Vries et al.of2007) Faculty Geosciences – Utrecht University

(Hoogwijk 2004)

(De Vries et al.of2007) Faculty Geosciences – Utrecht University

Areas suitable (i.e. generation cost < 0,1 $/kWh electricity) for Wind Solar-PV Biomass options

WSB (Wind Solar Biomass)options (elec&trp fuel) with interaction, A1 world 2050

Areas suitable (i.e. generation cost < 0,1 $/kWh electricity) for Wind Solar-PV Biomass options

WSB (Wind Solar Biomass)options (elec&trp fuel) with interaction, A2 world 2050

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Klimaat- en energiedoelen (beweegredenen)

Duurzaamheid

Klimaat •  VN (Rio de Janeiro, 1992): stabilisatie van de concentratie van broeikasgassen op niveau dat gevaarlijke menselijke invloed kan worden voorkomen •  EU en NL: twee graden doelstelling Energiebesparing en hernieuwbare energie •  betaalbaar (hoge olieprijzen) •  voorzieningszekerheid (olie uit het Midden Oosten en aardgas uit Rusland) •  duurzaam (luchtkwaliteit)


Meer inkomen leidt tot meer CO2-emissie


Vogels broeden eerder, vlinders trekken noordwaarts (waarnemingen)

Bron: Milieu- en Natuurcompendium

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Gezondheids-effecten o.a. toename ziekte van Lyme


Bron: RIVM



Mogelijke veranderingen in de beschikbaarheid van water over de hele wereld tegen het einde van de 21e eeuw

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Idealistisch

Idealistisch / im-materieel Absoluut Idealisme Kerk; institutionele religie Overheid; EU, UN Bureaucratie

Subjectief Idealisme Civil society Gedrag Sociaal Dilemma Diversiteit Regionalisering

Uniformiteit Globalisering Modernisme Consumptie Economie Vrije markt WTO Wetenschap Technologie / Complexiteit

Post-Modenisme Burger Fort Europa Culturele blokken Conflict

Materialistisch

Bestuur / Bureaucratie Sociale orientatie Centrale Planning Blauwdrukken / Regelgeving Europees beleid

Organisatie op lokale schaal Gedrag / Sociaal dilemma Ecologie

Uniformiteit Globalisering Centralisatie

Economische orientatie Hierarchische structuur Kosten-Baten Analyse Technische oplossingen Toenemende complexiteit

Diversiteit Regionalisering Decentralisatie

Decentralisatie: - Electriciteit vz -Spoorwegen -Schiphol / Gatwick -Drinkwater Markt-preoccupatie Netwerkorganisatie Fragmentatie en verkokering Materialistisch

Financiële Crisis ?

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miljard 10

Bevolking 8

CO2

6

Ecologie

Economie ‘welvaart’

4 2

1800

2000

2075

17

08. Uniformity Globalisation. Diversity Regionalisation. Materialistic Consumptive

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