Towards to MRV in Indonesian Transport Sector Presented by : Hikmat Hidayat Putu & Fahni Mauludi Ministry of Transportation Indonesia
Photo : Hikmat
February 2011
Outline Outlook Current Climate Change Progress Potential Mitigation Actions
National Action Plan Local Action Plan BaU Approach Achievement of DGLT Conclusion
Outlook
Sumber : ICCSR 2010 & DNPI 2010
Proportion of Fuel consumption in transport sector in 2005
Transport sector is Indonesia's largest consumer of primary energy (especially oil) 48% In 2005 CO2 emission from transport sector about 23% from energy sector (2005) CO2 emission in 2010 67 Milion ton The share of primary energy transportation sector (especially fuel) in 2005 : Road 90,7% Water 6,9% Air 2,4%
Climate Change Progress Forestry, Peat land
Farming
26% Our efffort
26+15=41% Our effort and foreign funding
Energy and Transportation Industry
Presidential Decree No. 61/2011 NAP-GHG
Presidential Decree No. 71/2011 GHG Inventory
Waste
Presidential Decree 61/2011 NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTORS Emission Reduction Target (26%): 0.038 (Giga Tonne) CO2e 0,008 GT (Transportation) Emission Reduction Target (41%): 1.056 (Giga Tonne) CO2e Period 2010-2020
Policies and Strategies ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Policies taken to support the NAP – GHG/RAN-GRK : 1. Increased energy saving 2. The use of cleaner fuels (fuel switching) 3. Enhancement of new and renewable energy (NRE) utilization 4. Utilization of clean technologies for both power generation and transportation equipment 5. Development of a low emission, sustainable and environmentally friendly national mass transport Strategies: 1. Conserve the final energy both through the application of cleaner and more efficient technologies and through reduction in the consumption of non-renewable energy (fossil) 2. Encourage the use of new and renewable energy in small and medium scales 3. (Avoid) – reduce the travel needs, particularly in city areas (trip demand management), through land use management, reduce travel activities and unnecessary distances 4. (Shift) – shift from using private vehicles (transportation facilities with high energy consumption) to low-carbon transportation pattern, such as non-motorized, public, or water
Core Activites and Supported Activities
ITS
Traffic Impact Control (TIC) Modern Logistics
AVOID
Congestion charge
Car labelling
Parking Management
SHIFT
NMT Infrastructure BRT
IMPROVE
Public Transport Revitalize
Eco-Driving Campaign
Emission standard CNG
Switch
Local Action Plan Local Action Plan
2. Baseline GHG Emission
1. Source, Potention and emission characteristic GHG
3. Propose Mitigation Action Plan
RAD-GRK Local Action Plan
4. Priority of Mitigation Action Selected
5. Institutions, Funding
Local Action Plan Local Action Plan
Source : Ministrial Decree No. KP. 909 Year 2011
General Approach of Business As Usual 1. Prepare of the data nedeed, what are parameter/variable, such as : • • •
Number of vehicle Population National fuel consumption, etc.
2. Forecasting/Prediction Emission to 2020 (all parameter involved) bottom up approach
3. Cross Check with top down approach, (Count the emission CO2 from vehicle, compare to CO2 emission from National Fuel Sell)
Type of Data Regarding Calculation No
Type of Data
Source
Time
1.
Road Length
National Statistic Agency, Ministry of Public Work
1987-2008
2.
Number of Vehicle
National Statistic Agency
1987-2008
3.
Local Emission Factor
4.
Population
National Statistic Agency
2009
5.
GDP
National Statistic Agency
2008
7.
Fuel Sales
Handbook of Energy and economic statistic of Indonesia
2009
2001
Achievement DGLT
NMT
ITS support Public Transport
Feeder (Peremajaan)
Conclusion
National and Local action plan for mitigation action 8 Million GT CO2e BaU : - Uncertanties - Available data, Quality of data - Improved of data Capacity Building (especialy on local government level) Coordination among Stakeholder (regarding on data and policies) Law Enforcement to implementation the policies Make a document for Proposed the 41% emission reduction by foreign funding.
SALAMAT
Climate Change Progress
Initiative from Indonesian President in G20 meeting in Pittsburgh, USA and Conference of Parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen December 2009, that Indonesia will decrease emission GHG 26% from business as usual and decrease 41% if supported by foreign funding, at 2020. The target 26% will be reached from three sector i.e. Forestry, Waste, and Energy (mining, refinery, industry, transportation, household) 2011 Presidential Decree No.61 - National Action Plan in GHG emission reduction Presidential Decree No.71 – Implementation of National GHG Inventory 2012 • Guideline of local action plan in GHG Emission reduction
Sustainable Urban Transportation Improvement Project
1. Pengenalan BaU (Baseline) BAU Calculation (has to be translated)
1. Input data: Populasi Kendaraan, Populasi Penduduk, Pertumbuhan Infrastruktur Jalan, Pertumbuhan GDP, Persentase Penduduk Perkotaan-Perdesaan, Total Konsumsi Bahan Bakar (bensin dan solar), Total Emisi CO2
2. Proyeksi: GDP/Kapita, Panjang Infrastruktur Jalan, Jumlah Kendaraan (Mobil, Motor, Bus, Truk), Jumlah Kendaraan Perkotaan, Jumlah Penduduk 3. Analisa Regresi: Kepemilikan Kendaraan vs. Pertumbuhan Infr. Jalan, Kepemilikan Kendaraan vs. GDP/kapita. 4. Proyeksi Regresi: Populasi Penduduk (Urban dan Non-urban), Panjang Jalan (Urban-Non Urban), Populasi Kendaraan 5. Perhitungan: Perjalanan Kendaraan- tahun, Konsumsi Bahan Bakar Kendaraantahun , Validasi Konsumsi bahan bakar, Total Emisi CO2 Kendaraan-tahun, validasi Emisi CO2. 6. Distribusi: Emisi CO2 Kendaraan berdasarkan moda (mobil, motor, truk, bis) dan struktur kota (metropolitan, kota besar, kota sedang, total nasional)
Business As Usual Approach
Normal
Restrain Infrastructure
No action with:
No action with
• Normal GDP growth
• Normal GDP growth
• Normal Population Growth
• Normal Population Growth
•Normal Vehicle Population Growth
• Vehicle growth depends on restrain infrastructure growth
• Normal Infrastructure Growth
1. BaU Pengenalan Baseline
Sustainable Urban Transportation Improvement Project
Cross check with ESDM (Selling fuel consumption in transport sector)
Bensin Tahun 2007 2008
ESDM(kl) 16.962.198 18.653.344
Estimasi- (kl) 16.775.200 18.880.214
Deviasi (%) -1% 1%
Estimasi- (kl) 8.145.660 9.655.473
Deviasi (%) -4% 8%
Diesel Tahun 2007 2008
ESDM(kl) 8.511.215 8.911.926
1. BaU Pengenalan Baseline
Sustainable Urban Transportation Improvement Project
Assumption CO2 Emission related to the fuel consumption 1. Gasoline: Emisi CO2 - 2,33 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995) 2. Solar: Emisi CO2 - 2,62 kg/liter (SITNP, 1995)
Year 2020 2030
Car
CO2 Emission (Million Ton) Bus Motor Truck
Total
34.79
34.39
33.01
8.64
110.83
57.55
61.59
44.04
11.58
174.77
1. BaU Pengenalan Baseline
Sustainable Urban Transportation Improvement Project
Asumsi: Data Cipta Karya: Penduduk Kota tahun 2008 telah melewati jumlah penduduk desa (> 50%) Jumlah penduduk kota metropolitan: 55% total penduduk perkotaan Jumlah penduduk kota besar: 19% total penduduk perkotaan Jumlah penduduk kota sedang: 25% total penduduk perkotaan.
CO2 Emission by Area (Million Ton) Year
Metro
Large
Medium
Rest of Nat
2020
31.70
10.95
14.41
53.77
2030
49.98
17.27
22.72
84.80
1. BaU Pengenalan Baseline
Sustainable Urban Transportation Improvement Project
BaU CO2 Emission
CO2 Emission (Million Ton)
300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 1990
1995
2000
2005
BaU Rest. Infr.
2010
2015 Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
BaU
Cross check with Estimation CO2 Emission in 2007 (data from Bappenas, 67 mt CO2)
Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya Teknis Kerangka Kerja Pengumpulan Data Nasional dan Daerah Proyeksi
yang relevan (Proyeksi infrastruktur; data makro (populasi, GDP, dll);proyeksi tingkat kepemilikan kendaraan bermotor;proyeksi aktivitas kendaraan berdasarkan tipe kendaraan; proyeksi penggunaan transportasi massal dan moda lain. Pengembangan asumsi berdasarkan konsensus Calculation tools (alat perhitungan) Non teknis Proses kordinasi yang kuat (vertikal & horizontal) Identifikasi
pengorganisasian lokal dan nasional (kualifikasi institusi, finansial, administratif, dll) Training of Trainers (penyamaan persepsi, khususnya metode BaU dan kriteria pemilihan aksi mitigasi, pendampingan untuk daerah, dll)
Evolution of “Climate Change” issues Back ground of International Climate Change Issue Copenhagen Accord 2009
G20 - Sept 2009
Pittsburg
Pernyataan Presiden Target Penurunan GRK: 26% APBN 41 % plus PHLN
Indonesia Voluntary Mitigation Actions 30 January 2010
Dana untuk Adaptasi dan Mitigasi: USD 30 Milyar 2012 USD 100 Milyar 2020 Transfer technology REDD +
Transport Sector Shifting to Low-Emission Transportation Mode
Indonesian Approach NAMA Unilateral Supported Credited
March 2010
On progress
On progress
Usulan Langkah Selanjutnya
Kesimpulan kondisi MRV saat ini (transportasi darat) Strategy Local measures
National measures
Page 26
Avoid/Shift Improve Requires bespoke studies, Can rely on a top-down but substantial levels of approach. Some NAMAs can data already available. be MRVd where localised data is available. Challenges exist in incorporating impacts into assessment at the national scale. Requires substantial Can rely on a top-down collection of new data to approach. Some NAMAs can characterise vehicle activity be MRVd with currently by mode. available data.
Data / Slide Pendukung
Business as Usual (BaU) Infrastructure Constrain Passanger Cars
Buses
Population
Urban
Car/Capita in Urban
Car/Capita in Non Urban
Motor Cycles
Trucks
Road Length
Urban Road Length
Non Urban
Buses/Capita in Urban
Buses/Capita in Non Urban
Motorcycle/Capita in Urban
Motorcycle/Capita in Non Urban
Truck/Capita in Urban
Truck/Capita in Non Urban
Non Urban Road Length
Road Growth
Urban Road Length Projection
Regression Model Cars/ Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Car Projection in Urban
A N N U A L
V E H I C L E
F U E L
C O N S M P
E M C I O S 2 S I O N
Regression Model Buses/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Car Projection in Non Urban
Population Projection
Bus Projection in Urban
Bus Projection in Non Urban
Car Projection
Bus Projection
Truck Projection
Annual Car km Travelled
Annual Bus km Travelled
Annual Truck km Travelled
Regression Model Motorcycles/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Truck Projection in Urban
Motorcycle Projection
Annual Motorcycle km Travelled
Annual Car Gasoline Consumption
Annual Bus Diesel Consumption
Annual Truck Diesel Consumption
Annual Motorcycle Gasoline Consumption
Car CO2 Emission
Bus CO2 Emission
Truck CO2 Emission
Motorcycle CO2 Emission
CO2 Emission in Metro Cities
CO2 Emission in Large Cities
Input Data
Regression Model Trucks/Capita in Urban vs Urban Road Length
Truck Projection in Non Urban
Motorcycle Projection in Urban
CO2 Emission in Medium Cities
Assumption : Vehicle Consumption
Cross Check Assumption : CO2 Emission by Fuel Type
CO2 Emission in Rest of Nation
Computed output for further calculation
Motorcycle Projection in Non Urban
Assumption : Avarage trip length, Vehicle usage, Daily operation/years, Avarege shift operation, Avarage daily trips
Assumption : Percentage of Population by City types
TOTAL CO2 EMISSION
Non Urban Road Length Projection
Calculation Result
Fuel Sales Data from ESDM
Integrated Modeling Analysis of Indonesian Policies and Transport System
Integrated Modeling
Data Base Development
• Vehicle number (type), age • Vehicle fuel consumption, annual kmdriven • Growth of population, GDP, etc • Modal Split • OD trends • etc
Development of BAU Scenario
• BAU normal • BAU restraint infrastructure
CO2 Emission reduction scenarios:
Strategy & Policy Recommendations
• Package of Sustainable urban transport policies • Package of Freight Improvement Program • etc
• Avoid
• Shift • Improve
Kerangka Pengembangan Aksi Mitigasi Pengembangan Data Base
• Jumlah kendaraan (tipe, umur, dll) • Komsumsi bahan bakar dan jarak tempuh kendaraan (per jenis kendaraan) • Pertumbuhan populasi, GDP, dll • Modal Split • Trend Asal-Tujuan • dll
Analisis Kebijakan dan Sistem Transportasi di Indonesia
Pengembangan Skenario BaU (Bottom-up and Topdown)
Integrasi Model (Tools)
Rekomendasi Strategi dan Kebijakan
• Paket Kebijakan Transportasi Perkotaan yang Berkelanjutan • Paket Kehijakan Transportasi Udara • Dll
• BAU normal • BAU keterbatasan infrastrukutur
Pengembangan MRV
• Pengukuran • Pelaporan • Verifikasi
Skenario Pengurangan Emisi CO2 • Avoid (Hindari) • Shift (Beralih) • Improve (Tingkatkan)
CHALLENGES
Funding Capacity Building Coordination among Stakeholder Local Government Involvement Law Enforcement
