Tight Monetary Policy

DEBT RESEARCH

MONTHLY REPORT SEPTEMBER 2013

Tight Monetary Policy

Country’s FCLT Rating S&P Moody’s Fitch

BB+ Baa3 BBB-

Key Market Indicators as of : 05 September 2013 BI Rate JCI IDR Inflation (y-o-y) Aug Inflation (m-o-m) Aug Market Outstanding Government Bond : Corporate Bond :

7.00% 4,051 11,649 8.79% 1.12%

IDR927.07 tn IDR214.28 tn

Trading Volume in August Government Bond : IDR102.07 tn Corporate Bond : IDR5.89 tn Benchmark Yield FR0066 FR0063 FR0064 FR0065

(5 year) (10 year) (15 year) (20 year)

Source: Bloomberg Mid YTM

Analysts Ayesha Ardelia (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3406 [email protected] Rifki Rizal (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3404 [email protected] Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3405 [email protected]

www.danareksa.com Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ

7.994% 8.715% 8.963% 9.165%

The US economy is improving With the US economy gaining traction, the Fed plans to ease off its stimulus program. After carrying out the third round of Quantitative Easing (QE3) for almost a year, the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded to USD 3.64 trillion. On September 4th, 2013, the Fed released its Beige Book stating that consumer spending especially on automobiles and home related goods - increased moderately from early July until late August 2013. The unemployment rate declined to 7.4% - its lowest level in 4 years. Going forward, the Fed is expected to taper its bond buying program by USD 10 billion a month, finally ending the program in mid-2014. The tapering of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program might lead to higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, yield curve on the 10 year US Treasury nudged 2.74% on 22nd August 2013, their highest level in 2 years.

Perekonomian AS membaik Seiring dengan perbaikan ekonomi AS, The Fed berencana untuk mengurangi stimulus pembelian obligasi bulanan. Neraca The Fed bertambah menjadi US$3,64 triliun selama setahun program pembelian aset Treasuries dan mortgage-backed securities. Pada 4 September 2013, The Fed menyatakan bahwa consumer spending meningkat secara moderat di berbagai negara bagian terutama pada sektor automobiles dan housing-related goods dari awal Juli sampai dengan akhir Agustus 2013. Tingkat pengangguran menurun menjadi 7.4%, terendah selama 4 tahun. Pengurangan dilakukan secara bertahap, dengan kemungkinan berkurang sekitar US$ 10 miliar setiap bulan dan diprediksi akan berhenti pada pertengahan 2014. Hal ini akan menyebabkan kenaikan pada borrowing costs, yield curve US Treasury 10 year sempat menyentuh 2,74% per 22 Agustus 2013, merupakan tertinggi selama 2 tahun belakangan.

BI rate increased For the third time in 2013, BI raised its benchmark rate. In the latest move, BI hiked the BI rate by 50bps to 7% and the FASBI overnight rate to 5.25% on August 29th, 2013 in a bid to quell inflation which is predicted to reach 8.79% at the end of 2013. Following the BI rate increase, the financial markets showed a slight improvement on August 30th, 2013, with the JCI rebounding from 4,103.6 to 4,195.1 and the government bonds yield index falling 15 bps. However, this improvement was shortlived as investors soon began demanding higher yields. With the relatively high volatility in the government bonds market, demand for short tenor bonds is still expected to increase because they are less likely to record a capital loss, especially government bonds with high coupons. When inflation finally eases and the rupiah becomes more stable, the government bonds yield index can be expected to trend lower.

BI rate naik Untuk ketiga kalinya pada tahun 2013, Bank Indonesia mengambil kebijakan menaikkan suku bunga acuan (BI rate) sebesar 50 bps menjadi 7% dan FASBI overnight menjadi 5,25% pada 29 Agustus 2013 untuk meredam inflasi yang diperkirakan mencapai 8,79% pada akhir tahun. Sehari setelah kenaikan BI rate, kondisi pasar keuangan pada 30 Agustus 2013 membaik walau tidak signifikan ditandai dengan rebound pada IHSG dari sebelumnya 4.103,6 menjadi 4195,1, dan government bonds yield index turun sebesar 15bps. Namun kondisi ini bersifat sementara karena investor mulai menaikkan required yield. Dengan masih volatilenya pasar obligasi Pemerintah, permintaan terhadap obligasi bertenor pendek diperkirakan masih akan meningkat karena lebih tahan terhadap capital loss, terutama obligasi-obligasi SUN yang memiliki kupon tinggi. Ketika inflasi mereda dan depresiasi rupiah berhasil diatasi, diperkirakan indeks yield obligasi pemerintah akan kembali memasuki tren penurunan.

AUGUST 2013

Exhibit 1. BI Rate and Inflation 9.0% BI Rate

Inflation YoY 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%

03-Jan-11 25-Jan-11 18-Feb-11 14-Mar-11 05-Apr-11 28-Apr-11 23-May-11 15-Jun-11 08-Jul-11 01-Aug-11 24-Aug-11 22-Sep-11 14-Oct-11 07-Nov-11 29-Nov-11 21-Dec-11 13-Jan-12 07-Feb-12 29-Feb-12 22-Mar-12 17-Apr-12 09-May-12 04-Jun-12 26-Jun-12 18-Jul-12 09-Aug-12 06-Sep-12 28-Sep-12 22-Oct-12 14-Nov-12 10-Dec-12 07-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 21-Feb-13 18-Mar-13 10-Apr-13 02-May-13 27-May-13 19-Jun-13 11-Jul-13 02-Aug-13 02-Sep-13

4.0% 3.0%

Source : Bloomberg The rupiah weakened against the US dollar The rupiah has weakened relative to the US dollar since early 2013 when it stood at IDR 9,653/USD, losing 15.86% of its value to stand at IDR 11,184/USD as of late August 2013. Rupiah volatility began to fall when the government started FX swap auctions in July 2013, yet volatility then increased from August 15th, 2013 until late August 2013. Volatility was at its highest in August 2013. Putting pressure on the currency was Indonesia’s widening current account deficit in the last seven quarters. The current account deficit reached USD 2,1 billion in August 2013.

Rupiah melemah terhadap dollar AS Pelemahan rupiah sebesar total 15,86% terjadi sejak awal tahun 2013 dengan nilai Rp 9.653 per US$ sampai dengan akhir Agustus 2013 senilai Rp 11.184 per US$. Volatilitas rupiah mengalami penurunan sejak pemerintah melakukan program lelang FX Swap pada Juli 2013, namun volatilitas kembali meningkat sejak tanggal 15 Agustus 2013 hingga akhir Agustus 2013. Volatilitas tertinggi terjadi pada Agustus 2013. Hal ini disebabkan neraca transaksi berjalan mengalami defisit selama tujuh triwulan. Defisit pada bulan Agustus adalah sebesar USD 2,1 miliar.

Exhibit 2. Rupiah Volatility 3.50

11,000

3.00

10,750

2.50

10,500

2.00 10,250 1.50 10,000

1.00

Aug-13

Aug-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jul-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Jun-13

Jun-13

May-13

May-13

May-13

Apr-13

IDR_1W-Vol

May-13

Apr-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

9,500

Jan-13

0.00

Jan-13

9,750

Jan-13

0.50

IDRUSD

Source : Danareksa Estimate & Bloomberg Attractive coupons on new government bond series The government bonds yield index reached 8.72% on August 28th, 2013, its highest level since March 2011. With a relatively attractive coupon rate, there was strong demand for the FR0069 and FR0070 series from investors. At the bonds auction on August 27, total incoming bids for FR0070 (coupon rate 8.38% and 10 year tenor) reached IDR 9.34 trillion, the largest amount of bids during the auction.



Kupon relatif menarik dari seri baru obligasi pemerintah Yield indeks pasar obligasi menyentuh level tertinggi 8,72% per tanggal 28 Agustus 2013, tertinggi sejak Maret 2011. Dengan tingkat kupon yang relatif lebih menarik, obligasi Pemerintah seri FR0069 dan FR0070 sangat diminati oleh investor. Pada lelang tanggal 27 Aug 2013, total penawaran yang masuk untuk seri FR0070 (kupon 8.38% dan tenor 10-tahun) mencapai Rp 9,43 triliun, penawaran tertinggi yang masuk pada lelang tersebut. 2

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Sentiment in the domestic bonds market has weakened since late May 2013. The total return index for government bonds declined by 13.19% from May until August with the government bonds yield curve shifting upwards. Foreign investor concerns stemmed from the rupiah volatility which reflected the widening current account deficit. Several market indicators weakened in August 2013. Reflecting the decline in stock prices, the Jakarta Composite Indices fell to 4,624.3 on August 1st, 2013 to reach its lowest level on August 27th, 2013 at 3,967.8. The rupiah was similarly depressed. It weakened from IDR 10,721 per US$ on August 1st, 2013 to IDR 11,184 per US$ on August 30th,2013.

Sentimen negatif di pasar obligasi domestik meningkat sejak akhir Mei 2013. Total return indeks obligasi Pemerintah dari akhir Mei hingga akhir Agustus turun sebesar -13,19% dengan yield curve obligasi pemerintah mengalami pergeseran ke atas. Kekhawatiran investor asing terhadap pasar obligasi domestik Indonesia akan volatilitas Rupiah akibat defisit perdagangan masih berlanjut. Beberapa indikator pasar menunjukkan tren menurun selama Agustus 2013. Sejalan dengan harga saham, IHSG turun dari 4.624,3 per 1 Agustus 2013 hingga mencapai titik terendah pada 27 Agustus 2013 sebesar 3.967,8. Demikian pula untuk Rupiah, mengalami depresiasi dari Rp 10.271 per US$ per 1 Agustus menjadi Rp 11.184 per US$ per 30 Agustus 2013.

Much weaker performance The domestic bonds market showed poor performance in August 2013, recording a negative return of 2.91% after recording a negative return of 2.89% in the previous month. The capital loss was 3.65% while the return from coupon payments was 0.75%.

Kinerja menurun tajam Pasar obligasi domestik menunjukkan kinerja yang menurun selama Agustus 2013, mencatatkan return negatif 2,91% dibandingkan dengan return bulan sebelumnya sebesar negatif 2,89%. Return dari capital gain sebesar negatif 3,65%, sedangkan return diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon sebesar 0,75%.

The government bonds yield index increased The composite bonds yield index reached 8.71% in late August 2013. For government bonds, the yield index reached 8.54%, while for corporate bonds the yield index reached 9.52%. The government bonds yield curve increased for all tenors with an average increase of 0.55%. This caused the yield curve to shift upwards.

Peningkatan indeks yield obligasi pemerintah Indeks yield obligasi gabungan sebesar 8,71% pada akhir Agustus 2013. Untuk obligasi Pemerintah, indeks yield gabungan sebesar 8,54%, sementara untuk obligasi korporasi sebesar 9,52%. Untuk obligasi Pemerintah, yield curve mengalami peningkatan untuk semua tenor dengan rata-rata peningkatan yield sebesar 0,55%. Hal ini menyebabkan yield curve obligasi Pemerintah shift upwards.

Exhibit 3. Yield Curve Change 0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%

31 year

30 year

29 year

28 year

27 year

26 year

25 year

24 year

23 year

22 year

21 year

20 year

19 year

18 year

17 year

16 year

15 year

14 year

13 year

12 year

11 year

9 year

10 year

8 year

7 year

6 year

5 year

4 year

3 year

2 year

1 year

0.00%

Term to Maturity Source : Danareksa Estimate



3

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Prices of long tenor bonds down significantly The prices of bonds with tenors more than 3 years fell more than the prices of short tenor bonds in August 2013. For the short tenors the return was negative 0.39% while the long tenors gave a negative return of 3.31%.

Return Obligasi tenor panjang turun signifikan Return obligasi bertenor panjang (obligasi dengan tenor lebih dari 3 tahun) mengalami penurunan yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan obligasi bertenor pendek pada Agustus 2013. Return dari masing-masing tenor sebesar negatif 0,39% untuk tenor pendek dan negatif 3,31% untuk tenor panjang.

Government bonds worst hit Government bonds were worse hit than corporate bonds. For government bonds, the negative return reached 3.47% while for corporate bonds the negative return was 0.42%. The capital loss for government bonds was 4.2% while corporate bonds gave a capital loss of 1.18%. The return from coupon payments on corporate bonds was higher than that on government bonds at 0.76% and 0.74%, respectively.

Obligasi Pemerintah lebih sensitif terhadap pasar Kondisi pasar memberikan dampak yang lebih signifikan terhadap obligasi Pemerintah dibanding obligasi korporasi tercermin dari return obligasi pemerintah sebesar negatif 3,47% dan obligasi korporasi sebesar negatif 0,42%. Capital loss obligasi Pemerintah sebesar 4,2% sedangkan obligasi korporasi sebesar 1,18%. Untuk return yang diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon korporasi lebih tinggi dari obligasi pemerintah yaitu sebesar 0,76% dan 0,74%.

Consumer Goods was the best performing sector Of the corporate bonds, the Consumer Goods bonds were the only bonds to give a positive return: the return reached 1.25%. In contrast, the worst performance was in the Telecommunications sector where the return was a negative 1.24%.

Sektor Consumer Goods terbaik Di antara obligasi korporasi, sektor Consumer Goods merupakan satu-satunya sektor yang menghasilkan return positif sebesar 1,25%. Sedangkan sektor dengan return terendah yaitu sektor Telekomunikasi sebesar negatif 1,24%.

Panin’s Bond was the best performer Panin’s Bond I/2012 gave a return of 7.1%, making it the best performing corporate bond in August 2013. In contrast, the worst performing bond was FR0062 with a negative return of 6.3%.

Kinerja terbaik diperoleh Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin Di antara seri obligasi korporasi yang outstanding, Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 memperoleh return 7,1%, dan merupakan obligasi dengan performa terbaik selama Agustus 2013. Sedangkan untuk obligasi dengan performa terendah dicatat oleh FR0062, dengan return negatif 6,3%.

Sluggish secondary market trading Total trading in the secondary market reached IDR 107.96 trillion in August 2013. Government bonds trading was recorded at IDR 102.07 trillion, or down from IDR 144.14 trillion the previous month. Corporate bonds trading fell to IDR 5.89 trillion from IDR 12.93 trillion in the previous month.

Perdagangan sekunder obligasi pemerintah sepi Total volume transaksi obligasi di pasar sekunder mencapai Rp107,96 triliun selama Agustus 2013. Perdagangan obligasi pemerintah tercatat sebesar Rp102,07 triliun, turun dari Rp144,14 triliun di bulan sebelumnya. Perdagangan obligasi korporasi turun menjadi Rp5,89 triliun dari Rp12,93 triliun di bulan sebelumnya.



4

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review FIFA’s bond was the most actively traded corporate bond Among the government bonds, FR0063 was the most actively traded bond in the secondary market with total trading of IDR16.16 trillion. Then came FR0065 and FR0064 with total trading of IDR 8.68 trillion and IDR 8.11 trillion, respectively. Of the corporate bonds, FIFA’s Continuing Bonds I with Fixed Coupon Rate II/2013 series B was the most actively traded with trading reaching IDR 833 billion. The second most actively traded corporate bond was Danamon’s Bond II/2010 series A with total trading of IDR 382.84 billion.

Obligasi FIFA teraktif diperdagangkan Di antara seri obligasi pemerintah, FR0063 merupakan obligasi pemerintah yang paling aktif diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder, dengan volume transaksi mencapai Rp16,16 triliun. Di posisi berikutnya adalah FR0065 dan FR0064 dengan volume masing-masing sebesar Rp8,68 triliun dan Rp8,11 triliun. Di antara obligasi korporasi, Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B merupakan obligasi paling aktif diperdagangkan dengan volume transaksi mencapai Rp833 miliar. Di posisi berikutnya adalah Obligasi II Bank Danamon Tahun 2010 Seri A dengan volume mencapai Rp382,84 miliar.

Exhibit 4. Trading Volume (IDR bn) Avg Monthly Transaction for Corporate Bonds : IDR11.07 trillion Avg Monthly Transaction for Governemnt Bonds : IDR138.96 trillion

200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Source : IDX process data & Danareksa Estimate



5

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Sep 2013 No.

Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity



Date

Obligasi Astra Sedaya Finance XI Tahun 2010 Seri E

18-Sep-13

Rating

Amount

Rate (%)

Coupon

(IDR bn)

1

ASDF11E

10.75

idAA+

69



Total Sep 2013

69

Source: IDX

Rating Change of Corporate Bonds No.

Bond ID

Date Change

Previous

Change to

Reason of rating change

1 SDRA 2-Aug-13 positive stable

The revised outlook reflects the prolonged process and uncertain timeline of the proposed acquisition plan of 27% shares by Woori Bank Korea (rated A-/Stable by S&P) and 6% shares by PT Bank Woori Indonesia, which is 95.2% owned by Woori Bank Korea.

2 BWPT 2-Aug-13 idA- idBBB+

The downgrade is mainly driven by the Company’s additional debt, which was significantly higher than projected and resulted in weaker cash flow protection, accompanied by higher cost structure in the near to medium term.

3 ADMF 15-Aug-13 positive stable Due to the expiration of the share purchase agreement between Temasek subsidiary Fullerton Financial Holdings Pte. Ltd., and DBS Group over the previously-planned acquisition of BDMN’s shares by DBS Group. 4 BDMN 15-Aug-13 positive stable

Due to the expiration of the share purchase agreement between Temasek subsidiary Fullerton Financial Holdings Pte. Ltd., and DBS Group over the previously-planned acquisition of BDMN’s shares by DBS Group.

Source: Pefindo



6

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Aug 2013 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity Rating Coupon Date

Last Trade

Last Price

Last Vol Freq YTM (IDRbn)

Maturity < 3 years 1 FIFA01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 04-Apr-16 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B 2 CFIN03C Obligasi Clipan Finance Indonesia III Tahun 2011 Seri C 08-Nov-14 3 BEXI01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank I Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B 23-May-16 4 BTPN02B Obligasi Bank BTPN II Tahun 2010 Seri B 18-May-15 5 BIIF02A Obligasi II BII Finance Tahun 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A 19-Jun-16 6 TRAC02C Obligasi Serasi Autoraya II Tahun 2011 Seri C 05-Jul-15 7 BSLT04 Obligasi Bank Sulut IV Tahun 2010 09-Apr-15 8 IMFI01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B 08-May-16 9 BWPT01 Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010 16-Nov-15 10 TAFS03B Toyota Astra Financial Serv ices III Tahun 2013 Seri B 11 ASDF01BCN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 17-May-16 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B 22-Feb-16 12 BNII01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri A 06-Dec-14 13 ASDF01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri B 12-Oct-14 14 NISP01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B 19-Feb-15 15 SMFP02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A 27-Dec-15 16 BCAF01SB Obligasi Subordinasi BCA Finance I Tahun 2010 23-Mar-15 17 TLKM02A Obligasi II Telkom Tahun 2010 Seri A 06-Jul-15 18 BFIN01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B 19-Feb-15 19 IMFI01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri B 11-May-15 20 BSSB01B Obligasi Bank Sulselbar I Tahun 2011 Seri B 12-May-16 21 BTPN01B Obligasi Bank BTPN I Tahun 2009 Seri B 07-Oct-14 22 ADMF01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri B 16-Dec-14 23 BSBR06 Obligasi VI Bank Nagari Tahun 2010 13-Jan-16 24 BTPN01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri A 05-Mar-16 25 ASDF01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Teteap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri B 21-Feb-15 26 PPKT02 Obligasi Pupuk Kaltim II Tahun 2009 04-Dec-14 27 BSMT03 Obligasi III Bank Sumut Tahun 2011 05-Jul-16 28 ADMF04E Adira Dinamika Multi Finance IV Tahun 2010 Seri E 29-Oct-14 29 BBRK01 Obligasi I Bank Riau Kepri Tahun 2011 08-Jul-16 30 BCAF01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C 09-May-15

idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.75 27-Aug-13 100.09 idA+

7.71

833.00

17

10.25 30-Aug-13

100.24

10.03

238.00

17

idAAA 6.40 21-Aug-13 AA-(idn) 10.60 28-Aug-13

96.00 102.00

8.03 9.33

190.00 171.00

8 7

AA+ (idn) 7.75 15-Aug-13 idA+ 10.20 16-Aug-13 idA- 12.00 30-Aug-13

100.02 101.95 103.10

7.74 9.06 9.89

160.00 137.00 105.00

2 9 8

idA idA

8.25 28-Aug-13 10.68 28-Aug-13

96.48 101.00

9.75 10.16

105.00 87.00

14 11

7.60 30-Aug-13 7.75 27-Aug-13

96.00 100.17

9.28 7.68

82.00 75.00

8 12

idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.75 28-Aug-13

98.27

9.21

54.55

9

idAA+

7.50 27-Aug-13

98.98

8.46

50.00

2

idAAA

6.90 01-Aug-13

100.03

6.88

50.00

1

idAA idAA idAAA

7.30 30-Aug-13 11.20 14-Aug-13 9.60 23-Aug-13

100.00 99.75 101.50

7.30 11.37 8.72

45.00 44.00 41.40

1 2 8

A+(idn)

8.50 28-Aug-13

99.99

8.51

40.00

5

idA 8.00 29-Aug-13 idA 10.40 29-Aug-13 AA-(idn) 12.00 27-Aug-13

98.03 102.30 103.85

9.26 9.42 8.33

32.00 32.00 30.00

4 6 11

idAA+ idA

8.00 30-Aug-13 9.88 27-Aug-13

98.82 100.00

8.98 9.87

26.20 20.00

7 1

AA-(idn)

7.65 29-Aug-13

100.70

7.34

19.00

1

98.10 102.90 100.00 100.00 100.00

9.37 8.31 10.12 9.24 10.40

18.48 15.00 15.00 12.00 12.00

8 5 1 4 1

idAA+/AA+(idn) 7.60 15-Aug-13 97.50

9.18

10.52

2

AAA(Idn) idAA+

idAA+ idAA idA+ idAA A(idn)

8.00 10.75 10.13 9.25 10.40

22-Aug-13 29-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 27-Aug-13

Source: PLTO IDX



7

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Aug 2013 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity Rating Coupon Date

Last Trade

Last Price

Last Vol Freq YTM (IDRbn)

Maturity > 3 < 5 yrs 1 PNBN04SB Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin III Tahun 2010 09-Nov-17 2 SIAGII02 Sukuk Ijarah Aneka Gas Industri II Tahun 2012 18-Dec-17 3 APLN02 Obligasi II Agung Podomoro Tahun 2012 15-Aug-17 4 MEDC01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Medco Energi Internasional 15-Mar-18 Tahap II Tahun 2013 5 BNII01SB Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank BII Tahun 2011 19-May-18 6 SMFP02BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 27-Dec-17 Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B 7 SSIA01B Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 06-Nov-17 8 BLAM03 Obligasi III Bank Lampung Tahun 2012 09-Oct-17 9 BNLI02SB Obligasi Subordinasi II Bank Permata Tahun 2011 28-Jun-18 10 SIAISA01 Sukuk Ijarah TPS Food I Tahun 2013 05-Apr-18 11 INDF06 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VI Tahun 2012 31-May-17 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 12 MEDC03 Obligasi Medco Energi Internasional III Tahun 2012 19-Jun-17 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 13 ADHI01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 15-Mar-18 14 BNGA01SB Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 08-Jul-17 15 JPFA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap I Tahun 2012 12-Jan-17 16 APLN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land 27-Jun-18 Tahap I Tahun 2013 17 SMKMYOR02 Sukuk Mudharabah II Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 09-May-17 18 BSDE01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai 05-Jun-18 Tahap II Tahun 2013 19 BMLK01C Obligasi I Bank Maluku Tahun 2011 Seri C 13-Jan-17 20 SIKPPLN01 Sukuk Ijarah PLN II Tahun 2007 10-Jul-17

idAA-/ A+(idn) 10.50

26-Aug-13 9.90 28-Aug-13 9.38 28-Aug-13 8.85 29-Aug-13

98.50 94.75 99.45 97.52

10.95 11.46 9.54 9.53

224.32 33.00 159.00 13.00 137.56 56.00 126.50 9.00

10.75 29-Aug-13 7.50 19-Aug-13

102.25 97.03

10.14 8.32

88.00 20.00 60.00 2.00

29-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 23-Aug-13

98.33 100.00 100.79 99.50 100.90

9.79 9.45 10.79 10.39 6.98

52.00 9.00 30.00 1.00 30.00 12.00 25.60 7.00 23.70 12.00

8.75 23-Aug-13

99.75

8.83

23.05 9.00

16-Aug-13 28-Aug-13 22-Aug-13 30-Aug-13

96.75 100.50 98.29 100.90

8.97 11.14 10.50 9.02

20.10 17.20 17.00 16.00

0.00 27-Aug-13 8.38 30-Aug-13

101.15 95.65

-0.31 9.52

15.00 8.00 15.00 4.00

A-(idn) 10.70 22-Aug-13 idAA+(sy) 10.40 26-Aug-13

104.15 103.55

9.26 9.30

12.00 5.00 12.00 9.00

A-(idn) idA idAA- idAA idAA

idA 9.30 idA-/A(idn) 9.45 idAA- 11.00 idA-(sy) 10.25 idAA+ 7.25 idAA-

idA 8.10 AA(idn) 11.30 idA/A+(idn) 9.90 idA 9.25 idAA-(sy) idAA-

3.00 7.00 5.00 5.00

Source: PLTO IDX

Transaction Activitiy in Aug 2013 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID

Bond Name

Maturity Rating Coupon Date

Last Trade

Last Price

Last Vol Freq YTM (IDRbn)

Maturity > 5 yrs 1 BNLI01SBCN2 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Permata 19-Dec-19 Tahap II Tahun 2012 2 PNBN01SBCN1Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I 20-Dec-19 Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 3 MYOR04 Obligasi IV Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 09-May-19 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 4 BNII01SBCN1 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I 06-Dec-18 Bank BII Tahap I Tahun 2011 5 BBMISMSB1CN2 Sukuk Subordinasi Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I 28-Mar-23 Tahap II Bank Muamalat Tahun 2013 6 ANTM01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Antam Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri B 14-Dec-21

idAA-

9.40 30-Aug-13

100.00

9.40

275.00 41.00

idAA-

9.40 30-Aug-13

100.00

9.40

44.30 17.00

idAA-

8.50 29-Aug-13

96.25

9.36

42.00 7.00

idAA/AA-(idn) 10.00 28-Aug-13

97.95

10.51

38.00 8.00

idA

9.60 30-Aug-13

97.45

10.02

35.00 13.00

idAA

9.05 28-Aug-13

100.50

8.96

14.00 8.00

Source: PLTO IDX



8

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Property & Construction and Oil & Gas (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Outstanding Rating Bond (IDR bn)

Key Financial Year Total Assets Total Liability Total Equity Revenue EBITDA (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

Net Income (IDR bn)

1. PT Agung idA 3,600 2Q13 17,820 11,106 6,714 1,285 PodomoroLand Tbk (APLN) 2Q12 11,770 6,323 5,447 1,179 Growth 51.4% 75.6% 23.3% 9.0% 2. PT Surya Semesta idA 700 2Q13 5,543 3,253 2,291 1,243 Internusa (SSIA) 2Q12 3,696 2,141 1,555 884 Growth 50.0% 51.9% 47.3% 40.6% 3. PT Jasa Marga idAA - 2Q13 26,137 16,148 9,989 2,358 (Persero) (JSMR) 2Q12 22,030 13,032 8,998 1,805 Growth 18.6% 23.9% 11.0% 30.7%

403 221 82.9%

202 215 -5.9%

255 201 26.8%

182 149 21.8%

798 813 -1.8%

439 514 -14.7%

4. PT Aneka Tambang idAA 3,000 2Q13 20,160 7,403 12,756 2,786 (ANTM) 2Q12 15,609 5,292 10,318 2,028 Growth 29.2% 39.9% 23.6% 37.4% 5. PT AKR Corporindo idAA 1,500 2Q13 12,055 7,088 4,967 5,178 (AKRA) 2Q12 9,572 5,587 3,985 5,575 Growth 25.9% 26.9% 24.7% -7.1%

420 196 113.9%

(89) 97 -191.8%

254 289 -12.1%

193 137 40.9%

No. Company Name

Year



Profitability (%)



Liquidity (x) Leverage (%)

Operating Net ROAA ROAE Current Quick Debt to Margin Income Ratio Ratio Equity Margin

Coverage (x)

Debt to Net Asset Gearing

Interest Coverage

Debt to EBITDA

1. PT Agung Podomoro 2Q13 27.75 15.74 5.55 16.44 1.41 0.84 80.06 30.17 35.12 Land Tbk (APLN) 2Q12 16.42 18.24 6.88 15.40 2.08 1.24 61.41 28.42 29.95 2. PT Surya Semesta 2Q13 18.89 14.63 15.53 41.21 1.92 1.28 58.99 24.38 -19.17 Internusa (SSIA) 2Q12 21.42 16.88 15.80 40.92 1.59 0.92 33.83 14.23 -37.35 3. PT Jasa Marga 2Q13 28.43 18.62 5.97 17.18 0.65 0.62 115.72 44.23 76.51 (Persero) (JSMR) 2Q12 34.52 28.51 6.45 17.39 1.14 1.05 101.36 41.40 55.08

-2.48 2.45

3.34 3.02

6.63 15.10

1.34 0.73

2.97 2.30

3.68 3.41

(0.54) 0.80

2.61 1.78

6.14 10.23

3.04 2.10

4. PT Aneka Tambang 2Q13 (1.54) (3.19) 16.16 25.06 2.46 1.58 38.90 24.61 13.80 (ANTM) 2Q12 2.44 4.77 9.87 13.67 4.86 3.47 31.24 20.65 (19.38) 5. PT AKR Corporindo 2Q13 3.74 3.73 6.50 17.13 1.42 1.05 64.80 26.70 34.12 (AKRA) 2Q12 4.22 2.46 16.26 38.21 1.25 0.95 55.91 23.28 11.39 Sources: Bloomberg & Danareksa



Ayesha Ardelia (Ext. 3406)

9

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Consumer Goods (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Outstanding Rating Bond (IDR bn)

Key Financial Year Total Assets Total Liability Total Equity Revenue EBITDA (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

1. PT TPS Food (AISA) idA- 600 2Q13 4,358 2,186 2,172 929 2Q12 3,698 1,738 1,960 709 Growth 17.8% 25.8% 10.8% 31.1% 2. PT Mayora Indah (MYOR) idAA- 250 2Q13 8,676 5,048 3,628 3,110 2Q12 7,800 5,134 2,665 2,875 Growth 11.2% -1.7% 36.1% 8.2%

No. Company Name

Year



Profitability (%)



Liquidity (x) Leverage (%)

Operating Net ROAA ROAE Current Quick Debt to Margin Income Ratio Ratio Equity Margin

Net Income (IDR bn)

182 129 41.3%

69 63 9.5%

419 358 17.1%

231 197 17.3%

Coverage (x)

Debt to Net Asset Gearing

Interest Coverage

Debt to EBITDA

1. PT TPS Food 2Q13 17.02 7.38 5.84 13.33 1.98 0.73 79.02 39.38 74.89 2Q12 15.63 8.84 6.64 16.61 1.77 1.07 79.89 42.34 56.48 2. PT Mayora Indah 2Q13 10.67 7.44 10.26 27.51 2.86 1.91 84.41 35.29 53.39 2Q12 10.15 6.85 10.42 27.58 2.27 1.30 143.98 49.20 113.15

3.98 2.74

2.95 3.45

6.06 5.17

1.86 3.15

Selected Multifinance Companies (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Outstanding Rating Bond (IDR bn)

Key Financial Year Total Total Total Total Operating Net Interest Net Income Assets Liability Equity Revenue Income Income (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

1. PT Clipan Finance idA+ 752 2Q13 5,402.0 2,829.7 2,572.3 235.8 131.4 (CFIN) 2Q12 5,319.5 3,031.8 2,287.7 226.0 108.1 Growth 1.5% -6.7% 12.4% 4.3% 21.5% 2. PT Adira Dinamika idAA+ 10,277 2Q13 27,639.7 22,518.7 5,121.0 1,993.0 564.8 Multifinance (ADMF) 2Q12 20,697.8 16,317.5 4,380.3 1,661.5 518.1 Growth 33.5% 38.0% 16.9% 20.0% 9.0%





Profitability





145.7 128.8 13.1%

99.7 84.2 18.4%

880.9 731.2 20.5%

423.0 388.5 8.9%

Solvability

No. Company Name Year Operating Net ROAA (%) ROAE (%) Cost to Margin (%) Interest Income Margin (%) Ratio (%)

Profit Debt to Debt to Net Margin Equity Asset Gearing (%)

1. PT Clipan Finance (CFIN) 2Q13 74.8 10.7 6.6 14.5 19.6 42.3 2Q12 72.1 11.6 7.0 16.2 19.0 37.3 1. PT Adira Dinamika Multifinance (ADMF) 2Q13 35.3 5.3 5.9 30.0 45.8 21.2 2Q12 37.4 6.0 10.1 40.0 52.9 23.4

102.0 124.7

48.6 53.6

98.3 105.9

396.7 338.0

73.5 71.5

370.9 294.3

Sources: Bloomberg & Danareksa



Ayesha Ardelia (Ext. 3406)

10

AUGUST 2013

Bond Market Review Selected Banking Companies (2Q2013) No. Company Name Current Outstanding Rating Bond (IDR bn)

Year Total Assets Total Liability (IDR bn) (IDR bn)

Key Financial Total Equity (IDR bn)

Revenue (IDR bn)

Net Interest Income (IDR bn)

1. PT Bank Tabungan AA- 5,385 2Q13 63,881 54,957 8,924 1,882 Pensiun Nasional (BTPN) 2Q12 52,006 45,331 6,674 1,539 Growth 22.8% 21.2% 33.7% 22.3% 2. PT Bank Panin (PNBN) AA- 8,415 2Q13 152,711 133,889 18,822 1,890 2Q12 135,794 118,691 17,103 1,881 Growth 12.5% 12.8% 10.1% 0.5% 3. PT Bank BII idAA+/ 7,000 2Q13 121,335 111,294 10,041 1,927 (BNII) AAA(idn) 2Q12 101,991 93,455 8,536 1,838 Growth 19.0% 19.1% 17.6% 4.8% 4. PT Bank Permata (BNLI) idAA+ 4,750 2Q13 144,342 131,112 13,230 1,584 2Q12 110,579 100,757 9,822 1,488 Growth 30.5% 30.1% 34.7% 6.4% 5. PT Bank CIMB Niaga idAAA/ 6,480 2Q13 202,197 178,061 24,136 3,270 (BNGA) AAA(idn) 2Q12 179,425 159,236 20,188 3,182 Growth 12.7% 11.8% 19.6% 2.7% 6. PT Bank Mayapada idBBB+ 850 2Q13 19,450 17,470 1,979 258 Internasional Tbk (MAYA) 2Q12 13,889 12,039 1,851 193 Growth 40.0% 45.1% 7.0% 33.8%

No. Company Name

Year



Profitability (%)



Leverage (%)

Asset Quality

Net Income (IDR bn)

1,777 1,458 21.9%

605 482 25.5%

1,462 1,292 13.1%

580 542 7.1%

1,429 1,340 6.7%

372 325 14.4%

1,261 1,210 4.2%

462 380 21.5%

2,485 2,482 0.1%

1,080 1,047 3.1%

245 179 37.0%

105 72 46.3%

Coverage (%)

Operating Net Profit ROAA ROAE Debt to Debt to Net NPL (IDR NPL to LDR Equity Margin Interest Margin Equity Aseet Gearing bn) T.Loans to Asset Margin (%) (%) 1. PT Bank Tabungan 2Q13 40.40 13.24 32.14 3.86 28.66 18.42 2.57 -159.56 282.81 0.64 92.25 Pensiun Nasional (BTPN) 2Q12 38.91 13.19 31.30 3.77 30.25 65.31 8.38 -133.75 254.29 0.74 85.87 2. PT Bank Panin (PNBN) 2Q13 42.06 4.46 30.71 1.52 13.34 125.77 15.50 -39.52 1,409.56 1.34 97.61 2Q12 40.65 4.65 28.83 1.77 15.49 132.66 16.71 -15.73 2,670.73 3.01 95.73 3. PT Bank BII (BNII) 2Q13 27.21 5.58 19.28 1.16 14.22 142.99 11.83 -77.17 1,102.47 1.30 93.39 2Q12 23.65 5.68 17.68 0.96 11.22 141.36 11.83 -56.23 1,548.84 1.88 107.74 4. PT Bank Permata (BNLI) 2Q13 34.70 4.53 29.17 1.16 12.79 59.65 5.47 -102.49 1,295.56 1.20 92.58 2Q12 32.73 4.96 25.55 1.19 12.72 66.83 5.94 -83.30 1,416.78 1.76 101.32 5. PT Bank CIMB Niaga 2Q13 44.74 5.86 33.02 2.30 19.85 80.99 9.67 -34.87 3,300.01 2.18 100.92 (BNGA) 2Q12 45.45 5.95 32.91 2.17 19.58 74.68 8.40 -38.98 3,402.01 2.47 100.11 6. PT Bank Mayapada 2Q13 49.30 6.07 40.72 1.89 16.48 36.80 37.50 -141.69 157.39 1.06 85.88 Internasional Tbk (MAYA) 2Q12 42.06 6.19 37.25 2.55 18.62 22.36 29.80 -116.26 207.59 2.11 82.75

7.16 7.79 8.11 7.94 12.08 11.95 10.91 11.26 8.38 8.89 9.83 7.51

Sources: Bloomberg & Danareksa Ayesha Ardelia (Ext. 3406)



11

AUGUST 2013

Appendices



12

AUGUST 2013

Appendix Appendix 1. Winners and Losers in Aug 2013

TEN BEST

Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Coupon Date (IDR mn) Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin 9.40% 20-Dec-19 2,000 idAA- Tahap I Tahun 2012

Interest Return

Price Return

Total Return

0.72%

6.37%

7.09%

Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VI Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap

7.25% 31-May-17

2,000

idAA+

0.56%

5.20%

5.76%

Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II Tahun 2012

9.25%

31-Oct-19

1,000

idAA/AA(idn) 0.80%

4.74%

5.54%

11.85%

11-Dec-16

3,500

idAA+

0.85%

4.05%

4.90%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Sarana Multigriya Finansial 7.30% Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A

27-Dec-15

320

idAA

0.58%

4.22%

4.80%

Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010

Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Mandiri I Tahun 2009

10.68%

16-Nov-15

700

idA

0.80%

2.08%

2.89%

Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Bukopin Tahap I Tahun 2012

9.25%

6-Mar-19

1,500

idA

0.74%

1.89%

2.63%

Obligasi SAN Finance II Tahun 2012 Seri C

8.40%

20-Jan-15

807

AA(idn); idAA- 0.68%

1.54%

2.22%

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B 7.75%

22-Feb-16

1,120

idAA+

0.60%

1.48%

2.08%

19-Feb-15

370

A+(idn)

0.66%

1.06%

1.72%

Price Return

Total Retur

Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B

8.50%



TEN WORST

Bonds Current Maturity Total Outstanding Rating Interest Coupon Date (IDR mn) Return FR0062 6.38% 15-Apr-42 12,000 - 0.82% FR0050 10.50% 15-Jul-38 15,686 - 0.73% FR0057 9.50% 15-May-41 13,550 - 0.81% Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B 8.88% 27-Jun-22 1,500 idAA+ 0.76% Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obligasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2011 8.30% 23-Dec-16 1,320 idAAA 0.72% FR0054 9.50% 15-Jul-31 27,096 - 0.71% FR0045 9.75% 15-May-37 6,400 - 0.79% FR0058 8.25% 15-Jun-32 37,820 - 0.71% FR0059 7.00% 15-May-27 21,175 - 0.70% FR0064 6.13% 15-May-28 27,950 - 0.66%

-7.12% -6.98% -6.58% -6.22%

-6.30% -6.26% -5.78% -5.45%

-6.03% -5.73% -5.54% -5.38% -5.27% -5.08%

-5.31% -5.02% -4.75% -4.67% -4.57% -4.41%

Appendix 2. Total Return Bond Index MoM (%) Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Jun-13 Composite Governments Corporates Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property and Construction Corporate upper A- Corporate below A- up to BBB- SOE

-6.20 -7.07 -2.10 -1.68 -2.67 -1.24 -2.74 -0.51 -2.05 -2.09 -2.22 -1.89

-2.89 -3.59 0.47 1.19 0.46 -0.16 0.94 0.41 0.35 0.48 0.34 -0.69

-2.91 -3.47 -0.42 -0.47 -0.38 1.25 -1.24 -1.07 -0.54 -0.42 -0.56 -0.91

0.78 -0.73 7.15 6.68 8.64 5.22 5.50 6.58 11.93 7.23 3.74 7.89

YoY (%) Jul-13 Aug-13 2011 -5.18 -7.54 6.01 7.10 6.42 4.20 6.05 6.14 6.00 6.12 1.45 5.04

-6.01 -8.53 5.60 6.51 6.35 5.62 4.77 5.89 5.08 5.74 0.28 4.68

20.89 22.00 15.07 9.59 14.57 13.24 16.41 15.80 22.05 14.83 19.10 17.72

YTD (%) 2012

2013

12.20 12.52 10.81 10.10 12.04 9.05 9.41 10.07 13.16 10.75 12.80 9.95

-0.33 -0.88 1.83 0.43 2.55 2.01 1.90 2.88 1.43 1.85 0.97 2.81

Source: Danareksa Estimates



13

AUGUST 2013

Appendix Appendix 3. Danareksa Bond Index - Aug 2013 Overview

Return

Total* Price Interest

Last 3mo

Total Return per Periode Last 6mo

Year to Date

Last 12mo

Last 24mo

-0.74 -2.86 1.45 2.25 1.21 0.54 0.90 1.12 -0.05 1.88 -26.67 0.25

20.06 15.12 25.30 24.77 26.85 17.52 24.79 25.22 42.46 24.60 -1.13 23.79

3.98 1.57 6.36 7.17 7.84 3.51 4.86 2.78 7.57 6.76 -20.64 4.57

11.85 8.09 16.01 17.61 18.71 11.94 10.33 12.12 21.50 16.37 -13.00 11.10

-0.74 -2.86 1.45 2.25 1.21 0.54 0.90 1.12 -0.05 1.88 -26.67 0.25

20.06 15.12 25.30 24.77 26.85 17.52 24.79 25.22 42.46 24.60 -1.13 23.79

3.98 1.57 6.36 7.17 7.84 3.51 4.86 2.78 7.57 6.76 -20.64 4.57

11.85 8.09 16.01 17.61 18.71 11.94 10.33 12.12 21.50 16.37 -13.00 11.10

20.06 15.12 25.30 24.77 26.85 17.52 24.79 25.22 42.46 24.60 -1.13 23.79

3.98 1.57 6.36 7.17 7.84 3.51 4.86 2.78 7.57 6.76 -20.64 4.57

11.85 8.09 16.01 17.61 18.71 11.94 10.33 12.12 21.50 16.37 -13.00 11.10

Broad Market Index (full maturity range)

Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

-0.39 -0.34 -0.44 -0.36 -0.91 1.01 0.18 0.15 -0.53 -0.44 -0.44 -0.65

-1.15 -1.13 -1.18 -1.04 -1.67 0.13 -0.63 -0.74 -1.39 -1.17 -1.33 -1.45

0.76 0.79 0.74 0.68 0.75 0.88 0.81 0.89 0.86 0.73 0.89 0.80

-1.63 -3.38 0.18 0.37 0.38 -0.51 -1.70 -0.27 -1.60 0.18 -0.30 -1.52

Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs)

Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

-0.39 -0.34 -0.44 -0.36 -0.91 1.01 0.18 0.15 -0.53 -0.44 -0.44 -0.65

-1.15 -1.13 -1.18 -1.04 -1.67 0.13 -0.63 -0.74 -1.39 -1.17 -1.33 -1.45

0.76 0.79 0.74 0.68 0.75 0.88 0.81 0.89 0.86 0.73 0.89 0.80

-1.63 -3.38 0.18 0.37 0.38 -0.51 -1.70 -0.27 -1.60 0.18 -0.30 -1.52

Long-term Market Index (more than 3 yrs)

Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

-0.39 -0.34 -0.44 -0.36 -0.91 1.01 0.18 0.15 -0.53 -0.44 -0.44 -0.65

-1.15 -1.13 -1.18 -1.04 -1.67 0.13 -0.63 -0.74 -1.39 -1.17 -1.33 -1.45

0.76 0.79 0.74 0.68 0.75 0.88 0.81 0.89 0.86 0.73 0.89 0.80

-1.63 -3.38 0.18 0.37 0.38 -0.51 -1.70 -0.27 -1.60 0.18 -0.30 -1.52

-0.74 -2.86 1.45 2.25 1.21 0.54 0.90 1.12 -0.05 1.88 -26.67 0.25

* Total return = price return + interest return

Source: Danareksa Estimates



14

AUGUST 2013

Appendix Appendix 4. Key Characteristics of Domestic Bonds (base year: Dec-04=100)

Total Weighted Average Average Average Average Market Return Average Coupon Modified Term Convexity Value Index YTM (%) Duration (IDR bn)



Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

Weight Weight in Sub in Broad Index Market

All Maturity Market Index

244.29 214.02 297.10 308.45 279.01 231.70 318.10 248.83

8.39 7.56 7.56 9.08 9.45 8.28 9.14 9.18

9.26 10.63 9.20 8.47 9.37 11.65 10.43 10.95

1.70 1.39 1.71 1.67 1.80 1.13 1.40 1.52

1.91 1.58 1.93 1.85 2.04 1.25 1.56 1.71

3.93 3.70 3.94 3.73 4.32 2.14 2.85 3.25

95,393 45,902 49,491 22,989 16,429 452 1,705 2,732

100.00 48.12 51.88 46.45 33.20 0.91 3.45 5.52

100.00 48.12 51.88 24.10 17.22 0.47 1.79 2.86

281.17 286.97 224.28 258.86

9.83 9.25 10.77 9.40

10.50 9.11 11.67 9.56

2.32 1.72 1.65 1.61

2.72 1.93 1.88 1.80

6.25 3.95 3.46 3.54

1,471 48,701 790 11,389

2.97 98.40 1.60 23.01

1.54 51.05 0.83 11.94

Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs) 272.68 263.22 315.32 269.82 251.49 284.22 289.33 341.19

8.74 8.62 9.66 9.75 9.80 9.24 9.49 9.54

9.49 9.42 9.51 9.02 9.89 9.23 9.85 10.08

4.48 6.51 3.77 3.24 3.94 3.30 4.01 4.35

6.79 12.09 4.92 3.97 5.26 4.07 5.39 6.04

22.97 42.24 16.21 11.79 17.56 12.45 18.38 21.36

664,573 575,831 88,742 8,497 37,155 6,550 7,565 10,018

100.00 86.65 13.35 9.57 41.87 7.38 8.52 11.29

100.00 86.65 13.35 1.28 5.59 0.99 1.14 1.51

276.72 305.61 366.24 336.97

9.71 9.64 10.13 9.40

9.10 9.37 10.33 9.77

3.70 3.79 3.68 4.15

4.71 4.93 4.87 5.62

15.37 16.44 14.88 19.75

7,873 83,142 5,600 33,946

8.87 93.69 6.31 38.25

1.18 12.51 0.84 5.11

Mid-term Market Index (more than 3yrs) Composite Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE

272.68 263.22 315.32 269.82 251.49 284.22 289.33 341.19

8.74 8.62 9.66 9.75 9.80 9.24 9.49 9.54

9.49 9.42 9.51 9.02 9.89 9.23 9.85 10.08

4.48 6.51 3.77 3.24 3.94 3.30 4.01 4.35

6.79 12.09 4.92 3.97 5.26 4.07 5.39 6.04

22.97 42.24 16.21 11.79 17.56 12.45 18.38 21.36

664,573 575,831 88,742 8,497 37,155 6,550 7,565 10,018

100.00 86.65 13.35 9.57 41.87 7.38 8.52 11.29

100.00 86.65 13.35 1.28 5.59 0.99 1.14 1.51

276.72 305.61 366.24 336.97

9.71 9.64 10.13 9.40

9.10 9.37 10.33 9.77

3.70 3.79 3.68 4.15

4.71 4.93 4.87 5.62

15.37 16.44 14.88 19.75

7,873 83,142 5,600 33,946

8.87 93.69 6.31 38.25

1.18 12.51 0.84 5.11

Source: Danareksa Estimates



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AUGUST 2013

RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research Fax No.

(62 21) 350 9888 (62 21) 350 1709

Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext. 3400 [email protected] Credit Analyst Production & Database Management Amir A. Dalimunthe ext. 3405 Eka Nuraini [email protected] [email protected] Ayesha Ardelia [email protected]

ext. 3407

ext. 3406

Market Analyst Rifki Rizal [email protected] ext. 3404 Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No. Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto [email protected]

(62 21) 350 9888 (62 21) 3501724/25

ext. 3200

Debt Sales & Brokerage (62 21) 3501088 Debt Trading & Investment Rina Rimawati D Romi Mulyadi [email protected] ext. 3223 [email protected] Agung Suprihanto [email protected] ext. 3212 Putrika Mayadipta [email protected] ext. 3215 Ariningtyas W. Agustina [email protected] ext. 3224 Product & Retail Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy Setyo H. Purnomo [email protected] ext. 3216 [email protected]



ext. 3213



ext. 3226

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AUGUST 2013

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