Share (+21.58% Upside) Company Information General Information

PROFINDO EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

PT JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA TBK 7 Juli 2017 Analyst: Yuliana | [email protected]

BUY LP 1,390 / Share TP 1,690 / Share (+21.58% Upside) Company Information General Information Ticker JPFA 52 week range 1,040 - 1,975 YTD Return (%) -8.25% JCI (%) 10.41% Last Price (IDR per Share) 1,390 Target Price (IDR per Share) 1,690 Share outstanding (Bn shares) 11.39 Market Cap (Rp tn) 16 Sector Basic Industry Source: Company and Profindo estimates

Pemegang Saham Shareholders (%) Japfa Ltd KKR Jade Investment Pte Ltd Masyarakat Source: Company

51% 12% 37%

Dividen Payment Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *as of Jun 2017

Source: KSEI

Stock Price

Payment/Share 20 10 15 50

Rilis laporan keuangan PT Japfa Comfeed Tbk (JPFA) pada kuartal I 2017 sedikit mengecewakan, meksipun dari sisi pendapatan masih mengalami kenaikan sebesar 2.96% YoY menjadi Rp 6.6 triliun. Namun beban pokok penjualan mengalami kenaikan yang lebih besar yaitu 3.96% YoY menyusul kenaikan harga jagung lokal akibat peraturan Pemerintah yang membatasi impor. Kontribusi terbesar dari pendapatan masih berasal dari peternakan dan produk konsumen sebesar 40.5% serta pakan ternak sebesar 38.26%. Laba kotor tercatat turun 1.81% YoY menjadi Rp 1.1 triliun. Laba operasional tercatat turun tajam 31.66% YoY menjadi Rp 270 miliar karena peningkatan pada beban operasional sebesar 14.54% YoY terutama pada beban umum dan administrasi. Hal ini berakhir pada penurunan laba bersih sebesar 67.02% menjadi Rp 91 miliar. Penurunan tajam ini dikarenakan keuntungan selisih kurs yang tercatat turun sekitar 78.77% YoY. Kami melihat prospek positif untuk kedepannya dengan mempertimbangkan: 1) kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi; 2) peningkatan pada consumer spending; 3) konsumsi poultry yang masih rendah dibandingkan dengan Negara lain; 4) Masalah oversupply yang dapat berakhir pada 2018. Kami yakin kinerja JPFA akan membaik untuk kedepannya serta pada Semester I tahun ini yang terdorong dari peningkatan permintaan pada bulan Ramadhan dan Hari Raya Idul Fitri. Kami menggunakan Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF) dengan asumsi terminal growth 5% dan WACC sebesar 19% mendapatkan harga wajar pada level Rp 1,690 per saham. Tingkat PER FY 2017 diprediksi sebesar 19.84x dan 1.86x. Kami merekomendasikan BUY dengan tingkat potential upside sebesar 21.58%. Lampiran 1. Financial Highlight

Source: Proclick

Research Analyst: Yuliana T: +62 21 8378 0888 E: [email protected]

in Bn Rp 2014 Net Sales 24,459 Gross Profit 3,426 Operating Income 1,276 Net Profit 332 NPM 1.36% EBITDA 1,375 ROCE 9% EPS 31 P/E 30.41 P/B 1.91 P/S 0.41 Source: Company and Profindo estimates

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2015 25,023 3,993 1,728 468 1.87% 1,842 12% 44 14.43 1.11 0.27

2016 27,063 5,479 2,921 2,065 7.63% 3,040 17% 181 8.03 1.77 0.61

2017E 28,416 5,115 1,989 970 3.41% 2,716 9% 85 19.84 1.86 0.68

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PT JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA TBK Dari sisi perekonomian, Pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia pada tahun ini diperkirakan tumbuh sebesar dikisaran 5.2% dan di akhir tahun 2018 dapat tumbuh 5.3%. Kontribusi terbesar PDB Indonesia berasar konsumsi rumah tangga yang mencapai 56% pada Kuartal I 2017. Selain itu pendapatan per kapita Indonesia setiap tahun mengalami peningkatan sehingga akan memberikan sentiment positif untuk tingkat konsumsi di Indonesia. Lampiran 2. Produk Domestik Bruto No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

PDB Penggunaan (Seri 2010) (Rp Tr) Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumahtangga Pengeluaran Konsumsi LNPRT Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto Perubahan Inventori Ekspor Barang dan Jasa Dikurangi Impor Barang dan Jasa PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO

2014 5,915 124 996 3,437 220 2,501 2,581 10,570

2015 6,478 131 1,125 3,782 159 2,439 2,390 11,532

2016 1Q 2017 7,010 1,837 144 38 1,172 212 4,040 1,018 214 68 2,367 662 2,271 604 12,407 3,227

Source: BPS

Lampiran 3. Pendapatan per Kapita

Source: trading economic, BPS

Berdasarkan data dari Trading Economic tingkat indeks kepercayaan konsumen juga terus mengalami peningkatan menunjukkan peningkatan potensi dan keyakinan masyarakat untuk berbelanja. Lampiran 4. Indeks kepercayaan konsumen

Source: trading economic, BI


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PT JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA TBK Berdasarkan data dari The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) konsumsi poultry di Indonesia masih cukup rendah hanya sekitar 7.1 kg pada tahun 2016 dan di tahun 2017 meningkat menjadi 7.2 kg jika dibandingkan dengan negara tetangga yaitu Malaysia yang mencapai 41 kg di 2016 dan di tahun 2017 sebesar 42 kg. Lampiran 5. Poultry Consumption Poultry Consumption (Kg/Kapita) World

13.8

India

1.8

Indonesia

7.2

Egypt

9.3

Thailand

10.4

Philippines

11.6

China (People's Republic of)

11.9

Viet Nam

14.7

Malaysia

42.5

Australia

43.1 0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Source: OECD

Data dari The Poultry Site menunjukkan bahwa hingga tahun 2017 diperkirakan masih akan terjadi oversupply pada broiler meat di Indonesia. Oversupply tersebut diperkirakan masih akan berakhir pada tahun 2018. Lampiran 6. Indonesian Broiler Meat Production and Demand

Source: the poultry site

Oversupply tersebut terjadi karena terjadinya peningkatan produksi dari tahun ke tahun meskipun tidak besar.


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PT JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA TBK Lampiran 7. Indonesia Broiler Meat Production Indonesia Broiler Meat Production 1700

1600

1000 MT

1500 1400

1300 1200 1100 1000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: USDA

Lampiran 8. Highlight First Quarter 2017 (in Bn Rp) 20141Q Net Sales 5,675 COGS -4,929 Gross Profit 745 Operational Expenses 603 Operating Profit 142 Finance Expense -159 Other Income (expenses) 124 Profit Before Tax 107 Net Income For The Year 53 Source: Company and Profindo estimates

20151Q 20161Q 20171Q 5,939 6,434 6,625 -5,259 -5,317 -5,528 679 1,117 1,097 569 722 826 111 395 270 -160 -145 -102 -157 179 93 -206 430 261 -222 277 91

Lampiran 9. Simplified Balance Sheet (in Bn Rp) Cash and Cash Equivalents Account Receivables Inventories Others Total Current Assets Non Current Assets Fixed Assets Others Total Non Current Assets Total Assets

2014 768 1,243 5,134 1,564 8,709

2015 901 1,200 5,855 1,648 9,604

2016 2,701 1,212 5,500 1,648 11,061

2017E 4,692 1,272 5,683 1,664 13,312

6,362 659 7,021 15,730

6,809 746 7,555 17,159

7,512 678 8,190 19,251

8,250 728 8,978 22,290

2,004 2,912 4,916

2,746 2,607 5,353

2,317 2,877 5,194

2,549 3,020 5,569

4,746 778 5,524 10,440

4,761 936 5,697 11,050

3,609 1,075 4,685 9,878

5,102 1,261 6,362 11,931

Total Equity 5,290 Total Liabilities and Equity 15,730 Source: Company and Profindo estimates

6,110 17,159

9,373 19,251

10,359 22,290

Account Payable Others Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Others Total Non Current liabilites Total Liabilities


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PT JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA TBK Lampiran 10. Simplified Income Statement Billion Rp 2014 Net Sales 24,459 growth 14.2% COGS (21,033) Gross Profit 3,426 GPM 14.0% Operational Expenses (2,150) Operating Profit 1,276 OPM 5.2% Finance Expense (694) Other Income (expenses) (39) Profit Before Tax 543 Income Tax Expense (158) Minority Interest (52) Net Income For The Year 332 NPM 1.4% Source: Company and Profindo estimates

2015 25,023 2.3% (21,030) 3,993 16.0% (2,265) 1,728 6.9% (681) (349) 698 (173) (56) 468 1.9%

2016 27,063 8.2% (21,584) 5,479 20.2% (2,558) 2,921 10.8% (510) 356 2,767 (595) (107) 2,065 7.6%

2017E 28,416 5.0% (23,302) 5,115 18.0% (3,126) 1,989 7.0% (565) 127 1,552 (507) (75) 970 3.4%

2014 1.77x .73x .16x

2015 1.79x .70x .17x

2016 2.13x 1.07x .52x

2017E 2.39x 1.37x .84x

2014 4.10x 89.09x 19.68x 18.54x 10.49x 34.78x 107.63x 72.85x 1.60x 4.20 4.64x

2015 3.59x 101.62x 20.86x 17.50x 7.66x 47.66x 119.12x 71.46x 1.52x 3.80 4.39x

2016 3.92x 93.01x 22.33x 16.34x 9.32x 39.18x 109.35x 70.17x 1.49x 3.78 3.50x

2017E 4.10x 89.02x 22.33x 16.34x 9.14x 39.92x 105.37x 65.44x 1.37x 3.61 2.88x

2014 14.01% 5.22% 6.87% 1.36% 6% 2% 9%

2015 15.96% 6.91% 7.58% 1.87% 8% 3% 12%

2016 20.24% 10.79% 5.56% 7.63% 27% 11% 17%

2017E 18.00% 7.00% 9.56% 3.41% 10% 5% 9%

Solvency Ratio 2014 Debt/Equity 1.97x Long Term Debt/Equity 1.04x Current Liability/Equity .93x Debt/Total Asset .66x Interest Coverage Ratio 1.84x Financial Leverage 2.91x Source: Company and Profindo estimates

2015 1.81x .93x .88x .64x 2.54x 2.89x

2016 1.05x .50x .55x .51x 5.72x 2.35x

2017E 1.15x .61x .54x .54x 3.52x 2.11x

Lampiran 11. Ratios Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio Turnover Ratios Inventory Turnover Average Inventory Period Receivable Turnover Average Collection Period Payable Turnover Payables Payment Period Operating Cycle Cash Conversion Cycle Asset Turnover Fixed Asset Turnover Equity Turnover Profitability Ratios Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin Return on Equity Return on Asset ROCE


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PT JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA TBK

Profindo Research Team: Yuliana (Research Analyst) [email protected] Ext 710

Dimas W.P. Pratama, CSA® (Technical Analyst) [email protected] Ext 722

Profindo Equity Sales Team Jessie James (Head of Equity Sales) [email protected] Ext 314

Prasetyo Nugroho (Head of Dealing) [email protected] Ext 306

Gabriella Pratiwy (Head of Marcom & OLT) [email protected] Ext 600

HEAD OFFICE Permata Kuningan Building, 19F Jl. Kuningan Mulia, Kav. 9C, Guntur Setiabudi South Jakarta 12980 Phone : +62 21 8378 0888 Fax : +62 21 8378 0889

BANDUNG BRANCH Jl. Sunda No. 50B Bandung, West Java Phone : +62 22 420 2678 Fax : +62 22 420 2676

Profindo Stock Rating BUY : The share price is expected to increase by 20% or more Trading Buy : The share price is expected to increase at least by 10% HOLD : The share price is expected to move within range of +/- 10% SELL : The share price is expected to decline by more than 10%

DISCLAIMER This research report is prepared by PT PROFINDO SEKURITAS INDONESIA for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).


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