Reksa Dana Indosurya HEPI Higher Education Performance Investment
Bisma Dewabrata, CFA, PRM, CAIA
Background 1. Keinginan para orang tua untuk memberikan pendidikan terbaik bagi anak-anaknya
2. Pendidikan tinggi (universitas) di negara-negara maju yang lebih baik 3. Jumlah keluarga Indonesia yang dapat mengirim anaknya kuliah di negara-negara maju terbatas 4. Minimnya produk investasi Indonesia yang didesain untuk pembiayaan kuliah di negara-negara maju
Background (cont’d) 5. Investasi di pasar modal Indonesia tidak optimal untuk pembiayaan kuliah di negara-negara maju a. Inflasi biaya kuliah yg tinggi di Amerika Serikat (termasuk untuk ukuran masyarakat Amerika) b. Depresiasi jangka panjang Rp. vs. US$ (hasil investasi dalam Rp. terdepresiasi nilai tukar) c.
Pasar modal Indonesia yang relatif sangat fluktuatif (kurang sesuai untuk rencana jangka panjang)
US Tuition Inflation
Sumber: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Tuition Inflation (cont’d)
Sumber: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
HEPI Investment Objective 1. Maximum capital gain dalam US$ dalam jangka panjang
2. Melebihi / menyamai inflasi biaya kuliah di US 3. Mempertahankan daya beli investor Indonesia terhadap depresiasi Rp. vs. US$
Investment Strategy 1. Perusahaan – perusahaan besar / large cap dgn minimum market cap > US$ 5 milyar – TLKM (PT Telkomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.) Rp. 402 T = US$ 31 milyar * – GOOG (Alphabet Inc. a.k.a Google) = US$ 579,1 milyar *
2. High conviction (long-term fundamental) 3. Low Turnover (minimum trading) 4. Concentrated (20-30 saham) * Sumber: Investing.com (7 Maret 2017) & 1 US$ = Rp. 13.400
Investment Style: Large Cap Blend 1. Value: saham-saham yang undervalued 2. Growth: saham-saham perusahaan yang sedang berkembang pesat
HEPI Expected Return: 10% - 20% in US$
Historical Return in US$ (As of Dec. 31, 2016) Return in %
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US Tuition*
6.25
6.24
6.01
5.19
5.02
4.85
4.22
3.69
3.47
4.07
S&P 500
5.49
-37.00
26.46
15.06
2.11
16.00
32.39
13.69
1.38
11.96
Ex. Fund 1*
15.02
-44.47
79.38
15.20
0.45
18.14
36.49
9.04
4.54
19.25
-9.66
-40.39
-31.49
6.14
-4.74
12.52
34.43
0.64
-6.21
-3.70
Ex. Fund 2*
Return in % (Annualized)
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
US Tuition*
4.07
3.74
4.06
4.90
S&P 500
11.96
8.87
14.66
6.95
Ex. Fund 1*
19.25
10.78
17.00
11.26
Ex. Fund 2*
-3.70
-3.13
6.57
-0.16
* Note: 1. Sumber data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2. Ex. Fund 1 & Ex. Fund 2 adalah salah satu contoh reksa dana lokal Amerika Serikat yang terbaik dan terburuk dari segi performa 10 tahun terakhir menurut Morningstar.
Financial Planning for Higher Education
US Average Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets 2016-17
Sumber: US College Board
US Average Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets 2016-17 Sector
Tuition & Fees
Room & Board
Books & Supplies
Transport
Other Expenses
Total Expenses
Private Nonprofit 4-Yr On-Campus
$33,480
$11,890
$1,230
$1,070
$1,650
$49,320
Public 4-Yr Out-ofState On-Campus
$24,930
$10,440
$1,250
$1,160
$2,110
$39,890
Public 4-Yr InState On-Campus
$9,650
$10,440
$1,250
$1,160
$2,110
$24,610
Public 2-Yr InDistrict Commuter
$3,520
$$8,060
$1,390
$1,760
$2,270
$17,000
Sumber: US College Board
Saving & Investing in Indonesia (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Year Monthly
2016/2017 College Cost: US$ 40,000
4 Years College Cost: US$ 160.000 Assumptions: 1. 13 x Monthly Salary 2. 25% of salary is allocated for saving / investing
Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tidak tercapai
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.000.000 2.100.000 2.205.000 2.866.500 3.009.825 3.160.316 4.108.411 4.313.832 4.529.523 5.888.380 6.182.799 6.491.939 8.439.521 8.861.497 9.304.572 12.095.943 12.700.741 13.335.778 17.336.511 18.203.337 19.113.503
Salary (Rp.) Increase Annual* 5,00% 5,00% 30,00% 5,00% 5,00% 30,00% 5,00% 5,00% 30,00% 5,00% 5,00% 30,00% 5,00% 5,00% 30,00% 5,00% 5,00% 30,00% 5,00% 5,00% 30,00%
26.000.000 27.300.000 28.665.000 37.264.500 39.127.725 41.084.111 53.409.345 56.079.812 58.883.802 76.548.943 80.376.390 84.395.210 109.713.773 115.199.461 120.959.435 157.247.265 165.109.628 173.365.110 225.374.642 236.643.375 248.475.543
Fund Exchange Rate Allocated* Rp. / US$ 6.500.000 6.825.000 7.166.250 9.316.125 9.781.931 10.271.028 13.352.336 14.019.953 14.720.951 19.137.236 20.094.098 21.098.802 27.428.443 28.799.865 30.239.859 39.311.816 41.277.407 43.341.277 56.343.661 59.160.844 62.118.886
2.326 2.431 14.500 6.815 8.975 11.320 8.710 8.235 9.298 9.805 9.150 9.015 9.218 10.190 9.072 8.545 9.395 9.927 11.855 13.326 13.140
Total (US$)
Saving in US$ 2.794 2.807 494 1.367 1.090 907 1.533 1.702 1.583 1.952 2.196 2.340 2.976 2.826 3.333 4.601 4.394 4.366 4.753 4.440 4.727
57.182
IHSG
-45,09% -0,91% 70,06% -38,50% -5,83% 8,39% 62,82% 44,56% 16,24% 55,30% 52,08% -50,64% 86,98% 46,13% 3,20% 12,94% -0,98% 22,29% -12,13% 15,32%
Investing in IHSG (Rp.)
Future Value of Investment
3.747.421 7.100.708 15.843.367 6.016.116 9.671.894 14.473.182 22.827.273 21.281.235 22.244.438 31.205.283 32.086.903 13.539.362 53.850.289 44.190.193 40.569.450 46.620.100 42.914.457 68.903.401 51.985.648 71.638.356
48.760.230 81.935.919 123.973.801 76.543.274 130.678.671 180.405.775 174.756.349 112.697.632 101.343.799 91.547.028 61.897.617 52.911.161 112.548.462 63.202.067 56.224.875 57.206.026 53.182.688 69.825.125 59.952.241 71.638.356
Total (Rp.) Exchange Rate
1.781.231.094 13.140
Total (US$)
135.558
College Financial Planning – Birth (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Birth
Year Time to College
Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 4 Years College Cost
40.000 160.000
Tuition Inflation Rate Years to College Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost
5,00% 19 404.312
HEPI Expected Return
12,00%
Investment Contribution Monthly Yearly
500 6.000
Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tercapai
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Investment Routine Additional
6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000
10.000
Total Future Value
137.804 46.140 41.196 36.782 32.841 29.323 26.181 23.376 20.871 18.635 16.638 14.856 13.264 11.843 10.574 9.441 8.430 7.526 6.720 505.722
College Financial Planning – Kindergarten (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Kindergarten
Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 4 Years College Cost Tuition Inflation Rate Years to College Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost
Year Time to College
40.000 160.000 5,00% 14 316.789
HEPI Expected Return
12,00%
Investment Contribution Monthly Yearly
650 7.800
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Investment Routine Additional
7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800
10.000
Total Future Value
86.991 34.035 30.389 27.133 24.226 21.630 19.313 17.243 15.396 13.746 12.273 10.958 9.784 8.736 -
Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tercapai
331.853
College Financial Planning – Kindergarten (In Indonesia and Later Converted; Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Kindergarten
Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 4 Years College Cost Tuition Inflation Rate Years to College Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost
Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tidak tercapai
Investment Contribution in US$ Monthly Rp./US$ as of March 10, 2017 Rp. equivalent to $650 is 13 x salary IHSG 2000 - 2016 Annualized Return
Year
40.000 160.000 5,00% 14 316.789
650 13.400 8.710.000 113.230.000
Time to College
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Investment Routine Additional
113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000 113.230.000
Total Future Value
134.000.000 1.747.575.588 696.032.528 605.288.977 526.375.896 457.750.916 398.072.751 346.174.983 301.043.259 261.795.475 227.664.526 197.983.316 172.171.721 149.725.251 130.205.185 -
14,99% In Rp.
Exp. Annualized Rp. Depreciation Rate Historical Depreciation (1/1/2000 - 31/12/2016) Interest Rate Parity Method
Exchange Rate In US$ 3,88% 22.818 5,97% 30.177
6.217.860.372
272.499 206.047
College Financial Planning – Elementary (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Elementary School
Year Time to College
Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 4 Years College Cost
40.000 160.000
Tuition Inflation Rate Years to College Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost
5,00% 12 287.337
HEPI Expected Return
12,00%
Investment Contribution Monthly Yearly
800 9.600
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Investment Routine Additional
9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.600
10.000
Total Future Value
76.361 33.394 29.816 26.622 23.769 21.223 18.949 16.918 15.106 13.487 12.042 10.752 -
Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tercapai
298.439
College Financial Planning – Jr. High & High (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Junior High School
Kesimpulan: Memulai berinvestasi saat SMP / SMA, jumlah yg harus disisihkan menjadi lebih mahal.
Start at High School
Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 4 Years College Cost
40.000 160.000
Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 4 Years College Cost
40.000 160.000
Tuition Inflation Rate Years to College Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost
5,00% 6 214.415
Tuition Inflation Rate Years to College Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost
5,00% 3 185.220
HEPI Expected Return
12,00%
Investment Contribution Monthly Yearly Year
Time to College 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1.800 21.600 Investment Total Routine Additional Future Value
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
21.600 21.600 21.600 21.600 21.600 21.600
10.000
62.373 38.067 33.988 30.346 27.095 24.192 216.061
HEPI Expected Return
12,00%
Investment Contribution Monthly Yearly Year
Time to College 0 1 2 3
3.800 45.600 Investment Total Routine Additional Future Value
3 2 1 0
45.600 45.600 45.600
10.000
78.114 57.201 51.072 -
186.387
Conclusion ▪ Pendidikan Tinggi di negara-negara maju dapat lebih mudah dicapai jika para orang tua sudah berinvestasi dengan disiplin sejak awal ▪ Reksa dana Indosurya HEPI bertujuan memfasilitasi cita-cita Pendidikan Tinggi anak-anak Indonesia ▪ ISAM dapat lebih efektif membantu para orang tua murid mencapai cita-cita anak-anak mereka
Thank You
