+60% +50%
NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD AVERAGE Global Equity Funds
NAVIGATOR FUND
+40%
NAVIGATOR FUND WWW.VECTOR.LU
WWW.VECTOR.LU
+30% +20%
Report 2005/03
+16%
+10% +0%
JANUARY 2008 REPORT ____________________________________
1. Last month 2. Track Record 3. Trade List & Holdings 4. Sector- & Regional Allocation
1. Return Distribution of last months' holdings
-10%
2. Comments -20% -28%
-30%
4. Track-record in relative terms
-40%
5. Statistics & Main positions
-50% 2001
+60%
3. Track-record in absolute terms
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
6. Sector Allocation 7. Regional Allocation
NAVIGATOR / MSCI MSCI / MSCI AVERAGE Global Equity Funds / MSCI
+50%
+41%
+40%
____________________________________ Investment Advisor : Vector Conseil Fund Management Company: Royal Bank of Scotland Custodian & Admin.: Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe Transfer & Paying Agent: Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe Auditor: Price Waterhouse Coopers
+30%
+20%
Information : call us at 00352 / 24 88 2536 mail us at
[email protected] visit www.vector.lu or www.lcf-rothschild.lu
+10%
+0%
-10%
MORNINGSTAR 3Y -13%
MORNINGSTAR 5Y -20% 2001
STANDARD & POORS 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1. RETURN DISTRIBUTION OF LAST MONTH's 100 HOLDINGS (in euro) Individuele prestatie van de 100 aandelen in portefeuille, afgelopen maand (in euro)
-40
-30
-20
-10
+0
+10
+20
+30
+40 < Best Performer
Performance last month's 100 holdings Performance MSCI World Performance Navigator
-8.86
-12.36
< MSCI World
Last month : NAVIGATOR compared to : MSCI World Index Average Global Equity Funds KBC Equity World Fortis Equity World ING Invest World DEXIA Equity World ABN AMRO Global Equity
return
relative
- 12.4
return
- 8.9 - 9.4 - 10.3 - 8.5 - 10.0 - 9.0 - 9.2
- 3.5 - 3.0 - 2.1 - 3.9 - 2.3 - 3.4 - 3.1
Last 12 months :
return
NAVIGATOR compared to : MSCI World Index Average Global Equity Funds KBC Equity World Fortis Equity World ING Invest World DEXIA Equity World ABN AMRO Global Equity
- 14.3
relative return
- 14.2 - 12.5 - 13.9 - 9.7 - 11.8 - 13.2 - 14.2
- 0.1 - 1.8 - 0.5 - 4.7 - 2.6 - 1.1 - 0.1
< Navigator
< Worst
2. COMMENTS 19/2/08
9
Januari 2008 was voor aandelenbeleggers - en fondsbeheerders - hoogst onaangenaam. De wereldindex (in euro) tuimelde 9% naar beneden. Na het al evenmin verkwikkende laatste kwartaal van vorig jaar was dit voldoende om de index naar niveau’s terug te voeren die we sinds augustus 2005 niet meer bezocht hadden. Navigator kon de dans niet ontspringen, en had relatief zwaar te lijden onder de correctie. Februari verliep op dat vlak al wel heel wat beter.
8
7
6
5
4
3 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 BOND YIELD EARNINGS YIELD
97 98 99
00 01 02 03
04 05 06 07 08
HIGH 8.97 18/9/90,LOW 3.53 18/6/03,LAST 3.90 18/2/08 HIGH 7.26 18/2/08,LOW 3.72 18/1/00,LAST 7.26 18/2/08
Source: DATASTREAM
January 2008 was remarkably unpleasant for equity investors – and fund managers. The MSCI World index (in euro) tumbled 9% lower. Coming on top of last year’s bad fourth quarter, this move was enough to send the index to levels not seen since August 2005. Navigator did not manage to outperform, allthough things turned for the better in February. Still, stock markets remain amazingly undervalued. Due to their poor performance, the Earnings Yield of the World index has now reached an extreme high level of 7,26%. That’s the highest reading over the last 20 years. When comparing this yield to the government bond yield, the undervaluation comes out even more striking. The 10 year yield in both the US and Europe now stands at around 3,90%, which is close to the lowest reading over the last 20 years. The risk premium, being the difference between yields on risky and risk-free investments, has by consequence never been more attractive over the entire period. Of course the “earnings” within the earnings yield might be up for some downward correction, which is why markets are in their current state. But we stick to our conclusion that global earnings really would need to fall dramatically to explain current valuations, and that’s a scenario we find highly unlikely.
Toch blijven aandelen schrijnend goedkoop te noemen. Door de sterke terugval van de laatste maanden is de Earnings Yield van de wereldindex (de omgekeerde Koers/Winst verhouding) nu opgelopen tot een extreem hoge 7,26%. Dit betekent dat men, voor elke 100 euro die men op dit ogenblik in een wereldwijd gediversifieerde aandelenportefeuille investeert, recht krijgt op 7,26 euro winstdeelname per jaar. Dat cijfer is de afgelopen 20 jaar nooit hoger geweest. Als men dit rendement vergelijkt met het rendement op overheidsobligaties, dan wordt de onderwaardering zo mogelijk nog schrijnender. De 10 jaarsrente draait aan beide zijden van de oceaan immers rond 3,90%. Dat cijfer is de afgelopen 20 jaar zelden lager geweest. De risicopremie, die in essentie het verschil is tussen dit risicodragend en risicoloos rendement, is de laatste 2 decennia dan ook nooit aantrekkelijker geweest. Nu kan men uiteraard heel wat kanttekeningen maken bij deze mechanische redenering, waarvan de belangrijkste is dat bedrijven de komende jaren misschien minder winst zullen genereren dan vandaag, en het is die vrees die de huidige malaise drijft. Maar we blijven bij de conclusie dat de winsten wereldwijd - al zeer dramatisch zouden moeten terugvallen om de huidige onderwaardering van aandelen nog te verantwoorden, een scenario waaraan we hoedanook weinig geloof hechten.
3. TRACK-RECORD (in absolute terms) Track-record (in absolute termen)
+140%
(*)
5 YEAR TRACK RECORD
(all prices are expressed in euro) Price 30-03-01 31-12-01 31-12-02 31-12-03 31-12-04 30-12-05 29-12-06 31-12-07 31-01-08
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
840.86 1200.51 1000.00 50.26 800.42 235.10 188.29 833.04 1127.02 895.04 39.20 725.68 218.43 177.22 576.46 754.97 570.23 24.34 458.85 140.72 116.61 677.07 821.60 601.79 25.84 487.03 151.99 123.59 760.34 860.32 613.36 26.99 497.48 151.29 126.25 992.64 1066.29 766.49 33.33 619.49 193.77 156.26 1110.20 1125.09 799.77 35.47 640.39 205.18 165.36 1117.36 1086.74 792.29 34.72 632.50 208.66 166.07 979.28 990.40 717.79 31.60 567.45 190.94 149.43 (*)= Average of DEXIA Equity World, KBC Equity World, Fortis Equity World, ING Invest World, ABN AMRO Global Equity
Return
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
2001 (3-12) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008….
-0.9% -30.8% +17.5% +12.3% +30.6% +11.8% +0.64% -12.36%
-6.1% -33.0% +8.8% +4.7% +23.9% +5.5% -3.41% -8.86%
-10.5% -36.3% +5.5% +1.9% +25.0% +4.3% -0.94% -9.40%
-22.0% -37.9% +6.2% +4.5% +23.5% +6.4% -2.1% -9.0%
-9.3% -36.8% +6.1% +2.1% +24.5% +3.4% -1.2% -10.3%
-7.1% -35.6% +8.0% -0.5% +28.1% +5.9% +1.7% -8.5%
-5.9% -34.2% +6.0% +2.2% +23.8% +5.8% +0.4% -10.0%
ABN AMRO Global Equity 57.90 53.17 33.50 33.96 34.41 43.00 43.09 41.60 37.76
ABN AMRO Global Equity -8.2% -37.0% +1.4% +1.3% +25.0% +0.2% -3.5% -9.2%
NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD AVERAGE Global Equity Funds
+120%
+100%
+80%
+78.0%
+60%
+30%
+20%
+40%
+38.5%
+10%
+33.7%
+0%
+20% -10%
-20%
+0% -30%
-40% 2001 (312)
2002
2003
2004
2005
NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*) 2006 2007 2008….
-20% Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
4. TRACK-RECORD (in relative terms) Track-record (in vergelijking tot wereldindex en andere fondsen)
+50%
(*) (all prices are expressed in euro) Price rescaled to Navigator 30-03-01 31-12-01 31-12-02 31-12-03 31-12-04 30-12-05 29-12-06 31-12-07 31-01-08
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
840.86 840.86 840.86 840.86 840.86 840.86 840.86 833.04 789.39 752.60 655.82 762.34 781.24 791.42 576.46 528.80 479.48 407.21 482.03 503.30 520.75 677.07 575.47 506.02 432.31 511.64 543.61 551.92 760.34 602.59 515.75 451.55 522.61 541.10 563.80 992.64 746.85 644.51 557.62 650.79 693.04 697.82 1110.20 788.04 672.50 593.42 672.74 733.85 738.46 1117.36 761.17 666.21 580.87 664.46 746.29 741.63 979.28 693.70 603.56 528.67 596.12 682.92 667.32 (*)= Average of DEXIA Equity World, KBC Equity World, Fortis Equity World, ING Invest World, ABN AMRO Global Equity
RETURN versus MSCI
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
2001 (3-12) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008….
+5.2% +2.2% +8.6% +7.6% +6.6% +6.3% +4.05% -3.49%
+0.0% +0.0% +0.0% +0.0% +0.0% +0.0% +0.00% +0.00%
-4.4% -3.3% -3.3% -2.8% +1.0% -1.2% +2.47% -0.54%
-15.9% -4.9% -2.7% -0.3% -0.5% +0.9% +1.3% -0.1%
-3.2% -3.8% -2.7% -2.6% +0.6% -2.1% +2.2% -1.4%
-1.0% -2.6% -0.8% -5.2% +4.1% +0.4% +5.1% +0.4%
+0.2% -1.2% -2.8% -2.6% -0.2% +0.3% +3.8% -1.2%
ABN AMRO Global Equity 840.86 772.17 486.51 493.19 499.72 624.47 625.78 604.14 548.37
5 YEAR RELATIVE TRACK RECORD NAVIGATOR versus MSCI WORLD NAVIGATOR versus Average Global Equity Funds
+40%
+33.2% ABN AMRO Global Equity -2.0% -4.0% -7.5% -3.4% +1.0% -5.3% -0.0% -0.4%
+30% +28.5%
+20%
+10% +8% +6%
+10%
+4% +2% +0% -2%
+0% -4%
µ
-6% NAVIGATOR -8%
MSCI WORLD AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
-10% 2001 (312)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008….
-10% Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
5. Statistics & Top Holdings Statistieken & voornaamste posities
HEDGE FUNDS
NAVI GATOR
MSCI WORLD
Average Global Equity Funds
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
ABN AMRO Global Equity
(JPM Global Govt. Bond Return Index ,euro)
RETURN LAST 60 MONTHS +78.0% AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURN +12.2% AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURN, relative to MSCI WORLD +5.5%
+38.5% +6.7% +0.0%
+33.7% +6.0% -0.8%
+38.1% +6.7% -0.1%
+31.5% +5.6% -1.1%
+43.3% +7.5% +0.7%
+35.5% +6.3% -0.5%
+20.2% +3.8% -3.0%
+2.7% +0.5% -6.2%
+1.6% +0.3% -6.4%
0.83 1.14 +0.97% +0.36% +3.68% +1.59%
1.00 1.00 +0.54% +0.00% +2.94% +0.00%
0.99 1.01 +0.49% -0.06% +2.99% +0.36%
0.96 0.93 +0.54% +0.03% +2.80% +0.58%
0.97 1.05 +0.46% -0.11% +3.14% +0.54%
0.96 1.06 +0.60% +0.03% +3.18% +0.69%
0.96 1.08 +0.51% -0.07% +3.23% +0.69%
0.95 0.93 +0.31% -0.20% +2.80% +0.68%
0.00 -0.02 +0.04% +0.07% +1.33% +3.28%
0.41 0.46 +0.03% -0.22% +2.09% +2.26%
ANNUAL BASIS: AVERAGE RETURN +12.2% ALPHA +4.47% VOLATILITY 12.8% TRACKING ERROR 5.50% SHARPE RATIO (risk free = 3%) +0.72 TREYNOR RATIO (risk free = 3%) +0.08 INFORMATION RATIO (=Alpha / Tracking Error) +0.81
+6.7% +0.00% 10.2% 0.00% +0.37 +0.04 +0.00
+6.0% -0.77% 10.4% 1.26% +0.29 +0.03 -0.61
+6.7% +0.35% 9.7% 2.01% +0.38 +0.04 +0.18
+5.6% -1.34% 10.9% 1.88% +0.24 +0.02 -0.71
+7.5% +0.34% 11.0% 2.38% +0.40 +0.04 +0.14
+6.3% -0.88% 11.2% 2.38% +0.29 +0.03 -0.37
+3.8% -2.36% 9.7% 2.37% +0.08 +0.01 -1.00
+0.5% +0.79% 4.6% 11.38% -0.54 +1.12 +0.07
+0.3% -2.62% 7.2% 7.83% -0.37 -0.06 -0.33
MONTHLY BASIS: R-SQUARED BETA AVERAGE RETURN ALPHA VOLATILITY TRACKING ERROR
TOP 10 HOLDINGS (in Mcap) GAZPROM AT&T TOYOTA MOTOR CHINA CON.BANK 'H' NESTLE 'R' TELEFONICA ROCHE HOLDINGS GSH. HEWLETT-PACKARD BANCO SANTANDER ORACLE
RS US JP CH SW ES SW US ES US
Oil & Gas Producers Fixed Line Telecommunications Automobiles & Parts Banks Food Producers Fixed Line Telecommunications Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Technology Hardware & Equipment Banks Software & Computer Services
BONDS
(CSFBTremont Inv.Index, euro)
TOP 4 OVER/UNDERWEIGHTED SECTORS & MARKETS Industrial Transportation Chemicals Technology Hardware General Retailers
+ + + +
CHINA TAIWAN SPAIN IRELAND
Mining Electricity Pharmaceuticals & Biotech. Banks
-
ITALY FRANCE UK US
6. SECTOR ALLOCATION Sector-allocatie
Financials : 21%=>19%
Technology : 12%
Utilities : 0% Oil & Gas : 6%=>10% Telecommunications : 7%=>5%
Consumer Services : 13%
Basic Materials : 9%=>10%
Healthcare : 4%
Industrials : 17% Consumer Goods : 11%=>10%
( =>) : change in allocation from last month
7. REGIONAL ALLOCATION Geografische Allocatie
US & Canada : 31%
Latin-America : 1% Australia : 3%=>2%
Japan : 10%
South-Africa : 2%
Emerging Europe : 3%
Asia (ex Japan & Australia) : 17%=>21%
UK & Ireland : 8%=>6%
Scandinavia : 4%
Southern Europe (France, Italy, Spain…) : 8%=>7% Western Europe (Benelux, Germany, Switzerland,...) : 13%
This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such offer or sollicitation is not authorised. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The value of investments may fall as well as rise. Any decision to invest should be based on a full reading of the fund prospectus and the most recent financial statements, available at www.vector.lu
