Laporan Akhir PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PROYEKSI KONTRIBUSI SEKTOR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN Model Input-Output Ekonometrika

Kerjasama

DIREKTORAT ENERGI DAN SUMBERDAYA MINERAL BADAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL BAPPENAS – JICA

Laporan Akhir PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PROYEKSI KONTRIBUSI SEKTOR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN Model Input-Output Ekonometrika

Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan

DAFTAR ISI

i

Bappenas – Jica | 2013


ii

| Bappenas-Jica, 2013


DAFTAR TABEL

iii



DAFTAR GAMBAR

iv



DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

v



PENDAHULUAN

1



2



3



4



5



6



Kerangka Teoritis 2.1. 2.1.1.

7



i

x j 1

8

ij

 Fi  X i



j

x i 1

ij

aij 

Vj  X j

xij Xj

a11 x1  a12 x 2    a1n x n  F1  X 1 a 21 x1  a 22 x 2    a 2 n x n  F2  X 2 









a n1 x1  a n 2 x 2    a nn x n  Fn  X n

a11 a  21   a n1

a12 a 22  a12

a1n   x1   F1   X 1  a 2 n   x 2   F2   X 2                  a1n   x n   Fn   X n 

I  A X  F 9



X  I  A F 1

10



2.1.2.

11



2.1.3.



C  Zc c  



12







Coefficient Change

Interindustry Relations

Final Demand C

Keofisien perdagangan

Input-Output Model

Teknologi

I

G

LN

Permintaan Tenaga Kerja

Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja

X

Tenaga Kerja

Pasar Tenaga Kerja

Populasi

Income

Y j  hCj C  hIj I  hGJ G  hNEj NE n

h j 1

Cj

C 1

X j  I  A j Y 1

I  Aj 1 X j

13





ei  Z e   X i   i



ei ,t  f Z ld , t , Z la, t , Z sup,t ,  ,  

14



 

, n

IDVi ,t   ai , j e j ,t j i

15



(fully simultaneous)

C  Z C  C  VAVA  

VA  VˆX

Vˆ

16



Ctr  CtUS

PI tr PI tUS

PI tUS

17



2.2.

Penulis

Topik

Pendekatan

Perobelli, et.all, 2006

An integrated econometric + input-output model for the Brazilian economy: an application to the energy sector An Econometric Input-output model for EU countries based on Supply & Use tables: the production side An Integrated Macroeconometric and Input Output Model of Nigeria The Use of Input-Output Analysis in an Econometric Model of the Mexican Economy An Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Integrating Input-Output Information into Industry Employment Forecasting Equations MULTIREG–A Multiregional Integrated Econometric

Integrasi IO+EC (ECIO)

Neuwahl, et. all, 2009 Oshikoya, 1989. Seguy and Ramirez, 1975 Rickam and Miller

O. Fritz and K. Kratena 18

Method Estimasi VAR, IO

Negara Brasil

Integrasi IO+EC (IOEC)

SUR, SAM

EU Countries

Integrasi IO+EC (ECIO) Integrasi IO+EC (ECIO)

OLS, 2SLS, IO

Nigeria

OLS, IO

Mexico

Integrasi EC+IO

Stepwise Regression, Bayesian model

Integrasi EC+IO

AIDS Model, IO


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan Penulis G. Streicher and G. Zakarias, 2004 West and Jackson 1998

Topik

Pendekatan

lnput-output+econometric and econometric+input-output: model differences or different models? QUIP

IO+EC, bottom up EC+IO, top down

Rey, 1999.

Integrated Regional Econometric And Input-Output Modeling

B.M. Sinaga dan A. Hendranata, 2002

Dampak Alokasi Anggaran Pengeluaran Pembangunan Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia: Suatu Analisis Simulasi Kebijakan. The Econometric Input-Output Model of Jakarta, Indonesia, And Its Applications for Economic Impact Analysis

Spatial Econometrics and Integrated EC+ IO Models EC+IO

19

Negara

Input–Output Model for Austria

OPSM

Brodjonegoro, 1997

Method Estimasi

EC+IO

Gauss-Seidel + classical Leontief matrix inversion Gauss-Seidel, single set of simultaneous equations 2SLS, ILS, OLS

OLS, AR(1), AR(2). Gauss-Seidel

Indonesia

OLS, AR(1), AR(2) dan Gauss-Seidel

DKI Jakarta



20



21



22



23



24



25



KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN

26



27



Input-Output Model

Export

Intemediate demand Koefisien IO

Export Demand

Goverment Invesment Consumption

Gross Output by Industry

Value Added by Industry Employment and Population

Econometric model

28

Income

Goverment

Household expenditure



METODOLOGI

Spesifikasi Model

Mulai

Nature of problem OK Identifikasi

No

OK Metode Estimasi

No

OK Validasi Model

No

OK Aplikasi

29

STOP



30



13

4

j 1

j 1

OEi    ij OAj    (  ij F j )

 ij

 ij

31



OAi  0  1OE1  2TKi  3 f (.)   1



TKi   0  1OA   2 g (.)  i

32





ICi   0   1TKi   2 h(.)   i

dimana:



CON  f Yd , PDB, RTAX , CONt 1  INV  f IRN , INF , D98 , INVt 1  GOV  f TOTPG, SEGI , SNEGI , PNS , D98 , PBBM , GOVt 1  EKS  f GGWL, ERUS , EKS t 1  IMP  f MDEF , ERUS , PDB

33



XIMC  f GGWL, D98 , ERUS , XIMCt 1  XPC  f PDBUSA, GGWL, XPC t 1  XMC  f GGWL, ERUS , IHPBEX , XMCt 1  MBKC  f PDB, IHKG, MBKCt 1  MBBC  f PDB, IHKG, MBBC t 1  MBMC  f PDB, IRN , MBMCt 1 

MS  f IHKG, PDB, DR, MS t 1  IRN  f MS , ERUS , INFL, IRN t 1 

DR  f IHKG, IRN  IHKG  f PBBM , INFL, ERUS , IHKGt 1  PDBDEF  f ERUS , IHKG, PDBDEFt 1 

PNMIG  f  XIMC , IHKG, PNMIGt 1  PMIG  f  XMC , ERUS , POIL, PMIGt 1 

13

 i   i x  i j 1

i i i

34



X  I  A F 1

x=Lf

f ′ = [ fC + fI + fG + fE – fM ]

A=[aij]

n

x j   aij x j  v j i 1

n

a i 1

ij

xj

n

v j  x j   aij x j i 1

n    1   aij  x j i 1  

35



 x1   x11 x12  x1n  1 v1     x  x  2    21 x 22  x 2 n  1  v 2                   x n   x n1 x12  x nn  1 v n  n  v1   1  a11  0      i 1      n v 2     1   a 22    0 i 1                0 v  0  n 

    0 0       n   0 1   a11  i 1   0

0

 x1       x2            x   n

v=X =Lf



n





i 1



  1   aij 

36



[ fC + fI + fG + fE – fM ]. fi = fiC + fiI + fiG + fiE –fiM

aiC = [ fiC / e’ fC] ; aiI = [ fiI / e’ fI] aiG = [ fiG / e’ fG] aiE = [ fiE / e’ fE] aiM = [ fiM / e’ fIM].

e’

 f1   f1c  f1I  f1G  f1E  f1M  f  f  f  f  f  f  2I 2G 1E 1M   2    2c                  f n   f nc  f nI  f nG  f nE  f nM 

37





38









Y  j  XB j   j  0

39



y j  Yj j  X j  j   j  Z j j   j  1    j   j  0   

 j  Bj    0 

Y j  Zj     X j 

 j  j     j 

1 Yˆ j  X  X ' X  X ' Y j

Yˆ j

ˆ2 SLS  Zˆ 'j Zˆ j









Zˆ j  Yˆj , X j

40

1

Zˆ 'j y



RMSE

RMSPE





1 n 1 n

 Y n

t 1

n

 t 1

t

s

 Yt a



2

 Yt s  Yt a    a  Yt 

2

Yt s

Yt a

² ²

41



42



43



HASIL ESTIMASI MODEL PROYEKSI KONTRIBUSI SEKTOR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN

²







44



LnCON   0.983  0.013 LnTOTIC  0.256 LnPDB  0.022LnRTAX  0.815 LnCONt 1

²

45



LnINV  2,491  0.229 LnIRN  0,024 LnINFL  0.452D98  0.864 LnINVt 1

²

46



LnGOV  0.012 LnTOTPG  0.008 LnS  0.037 LnPNS

 0.224 D 98

 0.011 LnPBBM

 0.926 LnGOV t 1

²

47



LnEKS  0.0992  0.072 LnGGWL  0.006 LnERUS  0.986 LnEKS t 1

LnIMP   3.449

 0.120 LnMDEF 

0.171 LnERUS  1.231 LnPDB

LnXIMC  1.12  0.089 LnGGWL  0.143 D98  0.047 LnERUS  0.940 LnXIMCt 1

LnXPC   0.284  0.325 LnPDBUSA  0.245 LnGGWL  0.744 LnXPCt 1

LnXMC  3.935  0.059 LnGGWL  0.306 LnERUS

48



 0.350 LnIHPBEX

 0.764 LnXMCt 1

LnMBKC   4.576  0.490 LnPDB  0.013 LnIHKG  0.780 LnMBKCt 1

LnMBBC   2.353  0.662 LnPDB  0.015 LnIHKG  0.457 LnMBBCt 1

LnMBMC  0.386  0.355 LnPDB  0.272 LnIRN  0.589 LnMBMCt 1

²

49



50



51



LnMS   9.012  0.299 LnIHKG  0.813 LnPDB  0.201LnDR  0.677 LnMST 1

LnIRN  0.575  0.291 .LnMS  0.021 LnERUS  0.118 LnINFL  0.745 LnIRN t 1

LnDR   4.227



0.029 LnIHKG

LnIHKG   0.664  0.023 LnPBBM



2.393 LnIRN

 0.079 LnINFL  0.822 LnIHKGT 1

 0.138 LnERUS LnPDBDEF   0.706  0.151 LnERUS  0.081 LnIHKG  0.809 LnPDBDEFt 1

²

52



53



LnPNMIG  1.501  0.184 LnXIMC  0.407 LnIHKG  0.605 LnPNMIGt 1

LnPMIG  8.526  0.222 LnXMC  0.0001 LnERUS  0.112 LnPOIL  0.445 LnPMIGt 1

²

54



LnOA01   0.571  0.160 LnPDB  0.049 LnTK 01t 1  0.220 LnIHPBAG

 0.104 D98

55

 0.827 LnOA01t 1



LnOA02   0.159  0.053 LnTK 02  0.003 LnIHPBMQ  0.987 LnOA02 t 1

LnOA03  0.173  0.286 LnTK 03  0.07 LnPDB  0.377 D98  0.77 LnOA03t 1

LnOA04  1.498  0.569 LnTK 04  0.030 LnIHPBENO  0.615 LnOA04 t 1

LnOA05   177.387  0.176 LnYTK 05  23.625 LnT  0.782 LnOA05t 1

LnOA06   1.151  0.247 LnYTK 06  0.024 LnIHPBEO  0.915 LnOA06 t 1

LnOA07   600.572  0.207 LnYTK 07  79.42LnT  0.519 LnOA07 t 1

LnOA08 

1.155 LnYTK 08  0.929 LnOA08t 1

LnOA09  0.192  0.032 LnYTK 09  0.280D98  0.980 LnOA09 t 1

LnOA010  599.781  0.065 LnTK10  0.144 LnPBBM  79.519 LnT  0.656LnOA10t 1

LnOA11  0.071 LnPDB  0.17 LnTK11  0.530D98  0.915 LnOA11t 1

56



LnOA12  0.026 LnPDB  0.091 LnTK12  0.182 D98  0.904 LnOA12t 1

²

57



∆

58



59



60



LnTK 01  1.180  0.024 LnOA01  0.862 LnTK 01t 1

LnTK 02   0.250  0.095 LnOA02  0.864 LnTK 02t 1

LnTK 03   0.409  0.167 LnOA03  0.714 LnTK 03t 1

LnTK 04   0.860  0.342 LnOA04  0.347 LnTK 04t 1

LnTK 05  0.392  0.130 LnOA05  0.766 LnTK 05t 1

LnTK 06   0.466  0.152 LnOA06  0.782 LnTK 06t 1

LnTK 07  0.438  0.068 LnOA07  0.789 LnTK 07 t 1

LnTK 08  0.620  0.019 LnOA08  0.955 LnTK 08t 1

LnTK 09  0.711  0.003 LnOA09  0.925 LnTK 09t 1

LnTK10  0.375  0.110 LnOA10  0.801 LnTK10t 1

LnTK11   0.947  0.175 LnOA11  0.837 LnTK11t 1

61



LnTK12   0.121  0.019 LnOA12  0.991 LnTK12t 1

²

62



63



64



LnIC01   9.755  1.079 LnTK 01  0.837 LnIC01t 1

LnIC02  1.572  0.056 LnTK 02  0.781 LnIC02t 1

LnIC03  0.494  0.012 LnTK 03  0.952 LnIC03t 1

LnIC04  0.039  0.758 LnTK 04  0.596 LnIC04t 1

LnIC05   0.249  0.219 LnTK 05  0.846 LnIC05t 1

LnIC06  0.659  1.469 LnTK 06  0.931 LnIC06t 1

LnIC07  0.629  0.212 LnTK 07  0.775 LnIC07 t 1

LnIC08  0.103  0.698 LnTK 08  0.444 LnIC08t 1 65



LnIC09  0.117  0.125 LnTK 09  0.879 LnIC09t 1

LnIC10  0.341  0.082 LnTK10  0.911 LnIC10t 1

LnIC11  0.756  0.041 LnTK11  0.906 LnIC11t 1

LnIC12  2.029  0.020 LnTK12  0.831 LnIC12t 1

²

66



67



68



69



70



71



72



POYEKSI KONTRIBUSI SEKTOR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN

73



A

74

xij Xj



Kode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 190 200 201 202 203 204 205 209 210

75

1 0.0662 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0830 0.0049 0.0005 0.0088 0.0226 0.0108 0.0134 0.0052 0.2155 0.0193 0.1726 0.5629 0.0178 0.0122 -0.0003 0.7652 1.0000

2 0.0001 0.0793 0.0000 0.0000 0.0554 0.0069 0.0018 0.0173 0.0146 0.0219 0.0132 0.0181 0.2286 0.0280 0.1235 0.5365 0.0524 0.0310 0.0000 0.7435 1.0000

3 0.0000 0.0000 0.0763 0.0000 0.0026 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0008 0.0004 0.0021 0.0007 0.0833 0.0457 0.0763 0.7266 0.0316 0.0364 0.0000 0.8710 1.0000

4 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0048 0.0312 0.0314 0.0008 0.0443 0.0212 0.0155 0.0200 0.0216 0.1917 0.0083 0.2874 0.4031 0.0797 0.0298 0.0000 0.8000 1.0000

5 0.1112 0.0178 0.0200 0.0019 0.2022 0.0123 0.0127 0.0013 0.0568 0.0279 0.0230 0.0108 0.4978 0.1539 0.1018 0.1807 0.0390 0.0281 -0.0013 0.3483 1.0000

6 0.0000 0.0000 0.1857 0.0000 0.0016 0.0166 0.0002 0.0002 0.0016 0.0010 0.0037 0.0016 0.2123 0.2054 0.1481 0.5844 0.0736 0.0053 -0.2292 0.5823 1.0000

7 0.0000 0.0669 0.0744 0.0000 0.0321 0.2031 0.1519 0.0095 0.0363 0.0120 0.0275 0.0019 0.6155 0.0817 0.0977 0.1519 0.1357 0.0169 -0.0996 0.3027 1.0000

8 0.0160 0.0000 0.0000 0.0533 0.2517 0.0442 0.0004 0.0010 0.0850 0.0272 0.0383 0.0058 0.5231 0.1193 0.1329 0.1794 0.0324 0.0129 0.0000 0.3576 1.0000

9 0.0444 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1016 0.0147 0.0148 0.0127 0.0422 0.0490 0.0812 0.0155 0.3761 0.0312 0.1777 0.3421 0.0499 0.0230 0.0000 0.5926 1.0000

10 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0373 0.1031 0.0101 0.0160 0.0332 0.0720 0.0400 0.0890 0.4011 0.1109 0.1610 0.1705 0.1500 0.0085 -0.0021 0.4880 1.0000

11 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0250 0.0024 0.0065 0.0287 0.0137 0.0265 0.1333 0.0340 0.2702 0.0501 0.1520 0.4669 0.0466 0.0142 0.0000 0.6797 1.0000

12 0.0192 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.1633 0.0035 0.0108 0.0215 0.0567 0.0333 0.0339 0.0363 0.3797 0.0808 0.3626 0.1099 0.0593 0.0080 -0.0003 0.5396 1.0000



Tabel 6.3. Matriks Kebalikan Leontief I atau Pengganda Output Sektoral Pertanin Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Bukan Migas Penggalian Lainnya Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak Listrik Gas dan Air Bersih Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa Total

76

S01 1.088 0.003 0.005 0.001 0.126 0.011 0.004 0.012 0.036 0.020 0.026 0.011 1.342

S02 0.014 1.088 0.005 0.001 0.095 0.015 0.005 0.021 0.028 0.033 0.026 0.026 1.358

S03 0.001 0.000 1.083 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.001 1.095

S04 0.012 0.002 0.010 1.007 0.068 0.039 0.003 0.047 0.034 0.024 0.033 0.028 1.308

S05 0.159 0.027 0.036 0.003 1.295 0.029 0.022 0.008 0.086 0.049 0.050 0.024 1.787

S06 0.001 0.000 0.205 0.000 0.004 1.017 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.002 1.240

S07 0.012 0.087 0.147 0.001 0.073 0.250 1.182 0.016 0.055 0.025 0.050 0.010 1.908

S08 0.065 0.007 0.021 0.055 0.353 0.061 0.009 1.010 0.118 0.051 0.071 0.021 1.843

S09 0.071 0.005 0.012 0.001 0.163 0.031 0.023 0.020 1.064 0.067 0.111 0.030 1.599

S10 0.016 0.003 0.028 0.002 0.092 0.122 0.017 0.023 0.054 1.090 0.064 0.105 1.616

S11 0.011 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.065 0.013 0.011 0.036 0.029 0.040 1.164 0.046 1.423

S12 Total 0.055 1.505 0.006 1.230 0.011 1.566 0.003 1.077 0.246 2.583 0.020 1.608 0.020 1.298 0.028 1.220 0.084 1.591 0.053 1.455 0.061 1.664 1.050 1.354 1.636 18.153



n

IDPj 

 i 1

n

ij

n

n

  i 1 j 1

ij

n

IDK i 

 j 1

n

ij

n

n

  i 1 j 1

ij



77



Code Sektoral S01 S02 S03 S04 S05 S06 S07 S08 S09 S10 S11 S12

78

Pertanin Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Bukan Migas Penggalian Lainnya Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak Listrik Gas dan Air Bersih Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa

Linkages Forward Backward 0.99489 0.88698 0.81339 0.89750 1.03545 0.72376 0.71183 0.86466 1.70764 1.18137 1.06313 0.81952 0.85835 1.26155 0.80654 1.21798 1.05192 1.05671 0.96162 1.06801 1.09998 0.94068 0.89526 1.08128

Prioritas Sektor 4 4 3 4 1 3 2 2 1 2 3 2









79



80



81





 

  





82



  





Tahun

83

Simbol

2013

2014



Variabel

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

1,756,517

1,864,780

1,978,093

2,096,637

2,220,967

Konsumsi Pemerintah

755,358

747,461

736,610

725,053

714,234

Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto

240,689

252,259

264,059

275,895

287,751

1,330,049

1,397,347

1,470,499

1,549,363

1,633,912

Ekspor Industri Manufactur

553,829

556,595

558,605

559,865

560,415

Ekspor Barang primer + lainnya

472,876

533,585

601,362

675,986

757,317

Ekspor Migas

303,344

307,167

310,531

313,511

316,180

1,280,299

1,359,083

1,436,875

1,516,227

1,599,038

Impor Barang Konsumsi

151,882

173,215

195,554

218,986

243,696

Impor Bahan Baku

959,013

1,014,642

1,067,803

1,120,667

1,174,817

Impor Barang Modal

169,404

171,226

173,518

176,574

180,525

Produk Domestik Bruto Riil

2,802,313

2,902,764

3,012,386

3,130,720

3,257,825

Produk Domestik Bruto Nominal

8,646,505

9,304,902

10,034,758

10,835,063

11,707,002

Konsumsi RT

Ekspor

Import

84


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan Variabel

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

GDP Deflator (2000=100)

308.55

320.55

333.12

346.09

359.35

IHK Indonensia (2000=100)

215.56

226.36

236.85

246.70

255.97

5,668,307

6,929,930

8,400,825

10,057,705

11,882,869

13.96

14.48

14.84

15.04

15.13

9.34

10.21

10.83

11.21

11.38

Penerimaan Pemerintah Non Migas

4,982,528

5,258,981

5,538,326

5,812,332

6,076,187

Penerimaan Pemerintah dari Migas

846,386

901,015

960,182

1,023,978

1,092,585

5,828,913

6,159,996

6,498,508

6,836,310

7,168,772

Jumlah Uang Beredar M2 Suku Bunga Pinjaman (Investasi) Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan

Total Penerimaan Pemerintah

85



Sektor Pertanin Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Bukan Migas Penggalian Lainnya Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak Listrik Gas dan Air Bersih Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa

86

2015 5.41 5.51 6.72 2.38 6.49 4.85 9.20 7.46 8.30 8.75 7.38 5.47

2016 5.17 5.64 6.59 2.24 6.33 4.70 9.10 7.57 8.23 10.23 7.18 5.46

Tahun 2017 4.96 5.78 6.48 2.11 6.21 4.37 9.05 7.69 8.17 10.19 6.99 5.45

2018 4.78 5.91 6.36 1.99 6.12 4.28 9.01 7.81 8.11 11.21 6.81 5.45

2019 4.63 6.05 6.26 1.87 6.06 4.04 8.99 7.95 8.05 11.90 6.65 5.45



87



Sektor Pertanin Pertambangan dan Penggalian Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Bukan Migas Penggalian Lainnya Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak Listrik Gas dan Air Bersih Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

88

2015 0.46 0.34 0.23 0.10 0.01 2.43 2.28 0.15 0.13 0.85 1.31 0.52 0.53 0.30 6.87

2016 0.43 0.34 0.24 0.10 0.01 2.36 2.21 0.15 0.13 0.86 1.32 0.62 0.52 0.29 6.88

Tahun 2017 0.40 0.34 0.24 0.10 0.01 2.29 2.16 0.13 0.13 0.88 1.33 0.64 0.50 0.29 6.82

2018 0.38 0.35 0.24 0.09 0.01 2.24 2.11 0.13 0.14 0.91 1.33 0.74 0.49 0.29 6.85

2019 0.36 0.35 0.25 0.09 0.01 2.19 2.07 0.12 0.14 0.93 1.34 0.82 0.48 0.28 6.89



89



90



91



92



PUSTAKA

93



94



95



96



No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61

97

Sektoral Padi Jagung Ketela pohon Ubi jalar Umbi-umbian lainnya Kacang Kedele Kacang-kacang lainnya sayur-sayuran Buah-buahan Padi-padian dan bahan makanan lainnya Karet Tebu Kelapa Kelapa sawit Hasil tanaman serat Tembakau Kopi Teh Cengkeh Kakao Jambu mete Hasil perkebunan lainnya Hasil pertanian lainnya Ternak dan hasil-hasilnya kecuali susu segar Susu segar Unggas dan hasil-hasilnya Hasil pemeliharaan hewan lainnya Kayu Hasil hutan lainnya Ikan laut dan hasil aut lainnya Ikan darat dan hasil perairan darat Udang Jasa pertanian Batubara Minyak bumi Gas bumi dan panas bumi Biji timah Biji nikel Biji bauksit Biji tembaga Biji emas Biji perak Biji dan pasir besi Barang tambang logam lainnya Barang tambang mineral bukan logam Garam kasar Barang galian segala jenis Daging, jeroan dan sejenisnya Daging olahan dan awetan Makanan dan minuman terbuat dari susu Buah-buahan dan sayur-sayuran olahan Ikan kering dan ikan asin Ikan olahan dan awetan Kopra Minyak hewani dan minyak nabati Beras Tepung terigu Tepung lainnya Roti, biskuit dan sejenisnya Mie, makaroni dan sejenisnya

Code1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Agregasi 13 Sektor Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertanian Pertambangan Bukan Migas Minyak dan Gas Bumi Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Bukan Migas Pertambangan Lain Pertambangan Lain Pertambangan Lain Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan No 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125

98

Sektoral Gula Biji-bijian kupasan Coklat dan kembang gula Kopi giling dan kupasan Teh olahan Hasil pengolahan kedele Makanan lainnya Pakan ternak Minuman beralkohol Minuman tak beralkohol Temabakau olahan Rokok Kapuk bersih Benang Tekstil Tekstil jadi kecuali pakaian Barang-barang rajutan Pakaian jadi Permadani, tali dan tekstil lainnya Kulit samakan dan olahan Barang-barang dari kulit Alas kaki Kayu gergajian dan awetan Kayu lapis dan sejenisnya Bahan bangunan dari kayu Perabot RT terbuat dari kayu, bambu dan rotan Barang lainnya dari kayu, gabus, bambu dan rotan Banrang anyaman kecuali terbuat dari plastik Bubur kertas Kerta dan karton Baang-barang dari kertas dan karton Barang cetakan Kimia dasar kecuali pupuk Pupuk Pestisida Damar sintetis, bahan plastik dan serat sintetis Cat, vernis dan lak Obat-obatan Jamu Sabun dan bahan pembersih Barang-barang kosmetik Barang-barang kimia lainnya Barang-Barang Hasil Kilang Minyak Gas Alam Cair (LNG) Karet remah dan karet asap Ban Barang-barang lainnya dari karet Barang-barang plastik Keramik dan barang-barang dari tanah liat Kaca dan barang-barang dari kaca Bahan bangunan keramik dan dari tanah liat Semen Barang-barang lainnya dari bahan bukan logam Besi dan baja dasar Barang-barang dari besi dan baja dasar Logam dasar bukan besi Barang-barang dari logam dasar bukan besi Alat dapur, pertukangan dan pertanian dari logam Perabot rumah tangga dan kantor dari logam Bahan bangunan dari logam Barang-banrang logam lainnya Mesin penggerak mula Mesin dan perlengkapannya Mesin pembangkit dan motor listrik

Code1 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Agregasi 13 Sektor Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak Industri Pengilangan Minyak Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan No 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 190 200 201 202 203 204 205 209 210

99

Sektoral Mesin listrik dan perlengkapannya Barang-barang elektronika, komunikasi Alat-alat listrik untuk rumah tangga Perlengkapan listrik lainnya Baterai dan aki Kapal dan jasa perbaikannya Kereta api dan jasa perbaikannya Kendaraan bermotor kecuali sepeda motor Sepeda motor Alat pengangkut lainnya Pesawat terbang dan jasa perbaikannya Alat ukur, fotografi, optik dan jam Barang-barang perhiasan Alat-alat musik Alat-alat olah raga Barang-barang indutri lainnya Listrik dan gas Air bersih Bangunan tempat tinggal dan bukan tempat tinggal Prasarana pertanian Jalan, jembatan dan pelabuhan Banguan dan instalasi, LGA dan komunikasi Bangunan lainnya Jasa perdagangan Jasa restoran Jasa perhotelan Jasa angkuatn kereta api Jasa angkutan jalan raya Jasa angkuta laut Jasa angkutan sungai dan danau Jasa angkutan udara Jasa penunjang angkutan Jasa komunikasi Bank Lembaga keuangan lainnya Asuransi dan dana pensiun Sewa bangunan dan sewa tanah Jasa perusahaan Jasa pemerintahan umum Jasa pendidikan pemerintah Jasa kesehatan pemerintah Jasa pemerintahan lainnya Jasa pendidikan swasta Jasa kesehatan swasta Jasa kemasyarakatan lainnya Film dan jasa distribusi swasta Jasa hiburan, rekreasi & kebudayaan swasta Jasa perbengkelan Jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga Barang dan jasa yang tidak termasuk dimanapun Jumlah Input antara Jumlah Input antara impor Upah dan gaji Surplus usaha Penyusutan Pajak tak langsung Subsidi Input primer/nilai tambah bruto Jumlah INPUT

Code1 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 190 200 201 202 203 204 205 209 210

Agregasi 13 Sektor Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengolahan Listrik, Gas dan Air Listrik, Gas dan Air Konstruksi Konstruksi Konstruksi Konstruksi Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan dan Jasa Perusahaan Keuangan dan Jasa Perusahaan Keuangan dan Jasa Perusahaan Keuangan dan Jasa Perusahaan Keuangan dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jasa-Jasa Jumlah Input antara Jumlah Input antara impor Upah dan gaji Surplus usaha Penyusutan Pajak tak langsung Subsidi Input primer/nilai tambah bruto Jumlah INPUT



Sektor Pertanin Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Non Migas Penggalian Lainnya Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak LGA Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa Jumlah Input antara Jumlah Input antara impor Upah dan gaji Surplus usaha Penyusutan Pajak tak langsung Subsidi Input primer/nilai tambah bruto Jumlah INPUT Code 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 190 200 201 202 203 204 205 209 210

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 180 32,519,282 10,884 0 37,955 210,812,973 55 15 9,254,685 32,471,007 72,739 63,505 10,218,824 295,461,923 0 10,917,982 265 0 33,671,757 38 5,944,916 0 3,836 25,368 0 0 50,564,161 0 0 16,279,471 0 37,821,533 43,279,013 6,615,568 4,043 0 0 0 0 103,999,628 242 0 0 172,539 3,579,030 236 0 30,851,761 9,501 0 0 673,697 35,287,006 40,743,052 7,624,170 564,021 1,128,255 383,251,000 381,464 2,853,188 145,600,376 74,264,693 14,850,289 8,804,270 87,032,863 767,097,642 2,419,579 956,183 27,911 1,134,206 23,308,883 3,861,185 18,054,787 25,583,768 10,762,097 41,085,522 840,988 1,881,022 129,916,131 269,193 243,003 6,955 27,194 24,132,462 51,598 13,503,992 248,125 10,812,621 4,010,110 2,281,502 5,754,086 61,340,841 4,341,862 2,376,085 35,636 1,601,631 2,396,963 49,691 847,949 589,417 9,272,367 6,377,923 10,103,010 11,467,940 49,460,473 11,114,207 2,006,569 169,832 767,796 107,574,285 375,194 3,222,518 49,181,905 30,821,520 13,238,617 4,840,646 30,243,682 253,556,771 5,278,692 3,015,572 88,044 559,477 52,846,408 233,354 1,063,821 15,738,350 35,825,695 28,702,676 9,316,058 17,737,087 170,405,233 6,586,168 1,813,052 447,308 724,634 43,559,017 861,208 2,440,142 22,141,565 59,329,572 15,956,864 46,934,473 18,067,479 218,861,481 2,533,222 2,492,833 155,922 779,375 20,426,851 373,982 170,329 3,378,717 11,342,431 35,478,391 11,964,295 19,332,043 108,428,390 105,805,498 31,456,334 17,775,364 6,933,061 943,381,162 49,467,018 54,717,224 302,572,711 274,915,338 159,798,498 95,148,747 202,408,723 2,244,379,681 9,459,233 3,851,128 9,765,800 300,028 291,748,512 47,866,386 7,265,528 69,006,907 22,833,743 44,204,534 17,647,818 43,053,347 567,002,965 84,728,434 17,000,227 16,278,448 10,391,851 192,880,112 34,508,671 8,688,614 76,881,831 129,859,534 64,154,069 53,524,921 193,321,275 882,217,987 276,301,728 73,831,508 155,108,177 14,577,382 342,358,848 136,162,959 13,504,337 103,773,710 250,073,524 67,930,872 164,439,103 58,578,933 1,656,641,080 8,729,724 7,218,327 6,753,374 2,884,050 74,000,656 17,159,239 12,065,215 18,722,142 36,438,008 59,778,491 16,422,357 31,622,864 291,794,447 6,002,797 4,269,283 7,779,087 1,077,899 53,326,493 1,227,072 1,503,184 7,484,509 16,814,492 3,404,448 5,005,102 4,270,046 112,164,413 -147,751 0 0 0 -2,549,795 -53,393,409 -8,850,600 0 0 -845,400 0 -139,334 -65,926,289 375,614,931 102,319,345 185,919,086 28,931,182 660,016,314 135,664,531 26,910,750 206,862,193 433,185,559 194,422,480 239,391,483 287,653,783 2,876,891,638 490,879,662 137,626,808 213,460,250 36,164,271 1,895,145,989 232,997,935 88,893,502 578,441,811 730,934,641 398,425,513 352,188,048 533,115,853 5,688,274,283


100


Sektor Pertanin Minyak dan Gas Bumi Pertambangan Non Migas Penggalian Lainnya Industri Pengolahan Industri Pengilangan Minyak LGA Konstruksi Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Jasa-Jasa Jumlah Input antara Jumlah Input antara impor Upah dan gaji Surplus usaha Penyusutan Pajak tak langsung Subsidi Input primer/nilai tambah bruto Jumlah INPUT

Code 301 302 303 304 305 309 310 401 402 403 404 405 409 501 502 503 509 600 700 1 181,105,072 0 1,276,607 -4,347,726 17,383,787 195,417,740 490,879,664 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 490,879,662 490,879,662 3 0 0 0 2,437,028 84,625,618 87,062,646 137,626,807 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 137,626,810 137,626,810 2 0 0 813,676 2,457,180 106,189,766 109,460,622 213,460,250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 213,460,250 213,460,250 4 12,823 0 0 -27,670 892,114 877,268 36,164,274 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36,164,271 36,164,271 5 590,021,838 0 52,620,596 17,798,638 467,607,315 1,128,048,387 1,895,146,029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,895,145,991 1,895,145,991 6 801,081 0 0 2,810,989 99,469,734 103,081,804 232,997,935 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 232,997,935 232,997,935 7 27,552,638 0 0 0 24 27,552,662 88,893,502 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 88,893,502 88,893,502 8 0 0 528,981,339 0 0 528,981,339 578,441,812 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 578,441,811 578,441,811 9 355,015,251 0 19,547,732 1,849,309 100,965,578 477,377,869 730,934,641 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 730,934,640 730,934,640 10 161,719,891 0 6,396,892 618,300 59,285,196 228,020,280 398,425,513 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 398,425,512 398,425,512 11 115,877,915 0 1,152,219 0 16,296,430 133,326,565 352,188,046 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 352,188,047 352,188,047 12 170,843,504 220,868,779 8,585,277 0 24,389,903 424,687,463 533,115,853 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 533,115,854 533,115,854 190 1,602,950,013 220,868,780 619,374,339 23,596,048 977,105,467 3,443,894,646 5,688,274,326 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,688,274,285 5,688,274,285 200 182,640,993 4,111,760 73,682,617 12,693,158 0 273,128,528 840,131,493 659,050,848 47,342,332 14,920,687 161,027,356 -42,209,694 840,131,528 0 0 0 0 0 840,131,528 201 202 203 204 205 209 210


101


Tahun

CON

GOV

INV

EKS

XMC

1980

285,224

49,415 117,696

214,836 154,375

1981

332,886

54,437 149,238

1982

344,079

1983

XIMC

XPC

IMP

MBKC

MBBC

MBMC

PDB

4,909

55,551

136,946 19,508

60,768

56,670

530,226

209,700 171,822

5,603

32,276

174,004 10,581 136,950

26,473

572,257

58,919 189,925

180,473 148,785

6,532

25,156

188,284 13,807 140,616

33,861

585,113

369,926

58,349 201,066

191,807 146,518

12,451

32,838

211,501 22,327 151,746

37,427

609,646

1984

384,697

60,340 192,653

204,350 149,796

17,172

37,382

195,608 11,629 147,703

36,276

646,432

1985

388,673

64,950 226,677

188,402 129,324

20,718

38,360

205,931

7,638 163,794

34,500

662,771

1986

397,178

66,757 278,135

217,062 121,830

38,685

56,547

214,515

8,970 167,393

38,152

744,617

1987

410,307

66,644 274,875

248,805 124,598

56,567

67,640

218,754

8,145 167,539

43,070

781,877

1988

426,221

71,691 255,600

251,421 101,037

70,179

80,204

177,859

6,302 137,241

34,317

827,037

1989

443,912

79,211 289,706

277,685 109,778

87,944

79,964

201,769

8,493 146,835

46,441

888,745

1990

487,753

81,754 353,069

278,938 122,103

98,220

58,614

248,404

9,975 169,415

69,014

953,108

1991

523,366

87,499 363,300

334,391 128,163 135,583

70,646

290,204 10,752 193,334

86,119 1,019,352

1992

538,304

92,602 380,119

383,428 127,257 181,304

74,866

309,256 13,749 211,993

83,514 1,085,196

1993

569,680

92,679 407,549

408,767 115,344 215,793

77,631

322,980 13,067 228,427

81,486 1,155,695

1994

622,183

94,815 438,934

456,727 119,996 235,764 100,967

369,825 16,537 267,494

85,794 1,242,834

1995

727,099

96,086 490,933

500,761 126,886 253,117 120,758

469,884 27,183 342,179 100,522 1,344,995

1996

797,780

98,673 517,220

538,616 139,055 276,194 123,368

502,141 32,821 356,408 112,911 1,450,149

1997

860,170

98,734 554,808

580,628 142,907 244,349 193,372

576,036 29,939 417,787 128,309 1,518,304

1998

807,112

83,557 313,956

659,938 127,398 291,178 241,361

545,562 38,272 391,393 115,898 1,319,001

1999

844,508

84,138 284,204

440,241 101,242 237,047 101,951

323,654 33,282 249,112

41,260 1,329,436

2000

857,877

89,599 298,121

556,838 140,352 316,166 100,320

407,590 32,633 316,893

58,064 1,394,845

2001

886,736

97,646 335,640

573,163 145,255 320,752 107,157

441,012 32,065 340,130

68,817 1,452,173

2002

920,750 110,334 320,670

566,188 137,781 306,233 122,175

422,271 35,771 326,974

59,527 1,495,670

2003

956,593 121,404 355,428

599,516 154,251 310,449 134,817

428,875 37,719 335,929

55,227 1,604,067

2004 1,004,109 126,249 379,965

680,621 176,437 340,501 163,528

543,184 44,353 424,076

76,534 1,647,760

2005 1,043,805 134,626 427,009

793,613 197,324 354,747 186,936

612,253 48,885 477,275

86,093 1,786,799

2006 1,076,928 147,564 432,746

868,256 215,883 388,113 204,518

694,605 55,460 541,472

97,673 1,830,889

2007 1,130,847 153,310 441,118

942,431 234,326 421,269 221,990

757,566 60,487 590,552 106,526 1,910,140

2008 1,191,191 169,297 495,993 1,032,278 256,666 461,431 243,154

833,342 66,538 649,623 117,182 2,055,416

2009 1,249,070 195,834 508,021

708,529 56,572 552,326

932,249 231,794 416,717 219,592

99,631 2,176,645

2010 1,308,273 196,398 564,389 1,074,569 267,181 480,335 253,115

831,418 66,384 648,123 116,911 2,312,210

2011 1,369,881 202,611 624,005 1,220,428 303,447 545,535 287,473

942,208 75,230 734,488 132,490 2,474,718

2012 1,442,193 205,290 714,170 1,245,781 309,751 556,867 293,444 1,004,958 80,240 783,404 141,314 2,602,476

102



Tahun Growth XDEF PDBDEF

MS

IHKG

PNMIG

PMIG

TOTPG

DR

IRN

1980

6.35

7.90

10.70

7,691

13.00

29,880

61,453

91,333 15.00 20.00

1981

7.93

8.70

11.80

9,716

14.50

34,408

81,643

116,051 18.30 19.80

1982

2.25

9.00

12.70

11,875

15.90

40,437

82,773

123,210 18.00 19.70

1983

4.19

11.30

14.60

14,663

17.80

48,158

105,527

153,685 15.80 19.60

1984

6.03

11.90

16.20

17,937

19.50

53,802

106,600

160,402 16.80 18.30

1985

2.53

12.20

17.20

23,153

20.50

73,865

123,009

196,874 18.00 18.90

1986

12.35

9.80

16.60

27,661

21.60

100,273

82,466

182,739 15.90 18.60

1987

5.00

12.70

19.20

33,885

23.60

114,101

92,343

206,444 16.80 18.70

1988

5.78

14.60

20.70

41,998

25.50

133,199

96,731

229,930 18.40 19.30

1989

7.46

16.20

22.70

58,705

27.20

270,975

23,841

294,816 17.80 19.50

1990

7.24

19.70

24.70

83,264

29.10

262,158

133,050

395,208 17.50 18.90

1991

6.95

19.70

26.90

99,058

31.70

267,476

157,372

424,848 23.30 21.40

1992

6.46

21.10

28.80

119,053

34.10

320,270

152,655

472,925 19.80 18.20

1993

6.50

22.10

31.50

145,202

37.40

410,902

132,103

543,005 14.50 17.20

1994

7.54

22.30

33.90

174,515

40.60

505,629

132,789

638,418 12.50 15.00

1995

8.22

24.50

37.30

222,638

44.40

546,842

154,254

701,096 16.70 15.70

1996

7.82

26.20

40.50

288,632

47.60

634,271

191,165

825,436 17.30 16.50

1997

4.70

30.90

45.60

355,643

50.50

778,226

200,734

978,960 20.00 17.70

1998

(13.13)

78.70

80.30

577,381

79.80

1,067,093

360,393

1,427,486 39.10 23.00

1999

0.79

91.00

91.20

646,205

96.40

1,353,816

542,033

1,895,849 26.70 22.20

2000

4.92

100.00

100.00

747,028

100.00

1,200,220

853,125

2,053,345 12.50 16.60

2001

4.11

112.10

114.30

844,053

111.50

1,984,570

1,041,425

3,025,995 15.50 17.10

2002

3.00

105.20

121.03

883,908

124.80

2,247,558

801,394

3,048,952 15.50 17.82

2003

7.25

102.40

127.68

955,692

133.20

2,651,848

709,707

3,361,555 10.60 15.68

2004

2.72

107.20

138.59

1,033,527

141.30

2,921,647

571,348

3,492,995

2005

8.44

123.90

158.46

1,203,215

156.00

3,151,170

645,100

3,796,270 11.75 15.66

2006

2.47

145.30

180.78

1,382,074

160.06

3,190,560

653,164

3,843,723

9.71 15.10

2007

4.33

153.70

201.13

1,649,662

164.22

3,230,442

661,328

3,891,770

7.42 13.01

2008

7.61

167.00

237.64

1,895,839

168.49

3,265,976

668,603

3,934,579 11.16 14.40

2009

5.90

179.12

257.30

2,141,384

171.18

3,300,269

675,623

3,975,892

7.48 12.96

2010

6.23

184.10

278.16

2,471,206

175.46

3,382,776

692,514

4,075,290

7.03 12.28

2011

7.03

187.30

301.52

2,877,220

178.97

3,418,295

699,785

4,118,080

6.81 12.04

2012

5.16

201.45

314.80

3,304,645

185.24

3,461,024

708,533

4,169,556

5.76 11.27

103

6.71 14.05



OA03 OA04

OA05

OA06

OA07

OA08

OA09

OA10

OA11

OA12

TOTOA

1980 139,000 101,869

2,946 1,691

237,068

10,510

4,232

53,404

64,450

22,312

23,575

53,424

326,602

1981 143,232 105,858

3,518 1,667

256,256

16,521

5,074

64,082

74,843

25,695

27,095

59,658

345,983

1982 146,057

94,869 3,347 1,653

254,749

23,781

6,278

72,870

84,525

28,615

31,282

65,936

340,975

1983 151,571

97,844 2,810 2,739

249,462

33,575

7,039

83,161

93,263

31,442

35,718

73,086

351,656

3,246 2,993

270,421

52,204

7,551

83,265

97,885

35,805

41,286

79,437

369,181

93,513 4,164 3,544

290,736

58,568

8,256

88,756 101,895

36,456

43,722

85,347

373,885

Tahun OA01

OA02

1984 152,332 102,239 1985 152,346

1986 148,295 101,816

6,212 5,773

401,458

59,133

6,165

86,956 107,422

37,438

53,457

87,591

430,256

1987 154,273 103,595

7,194 4,941

425,594

65,879

7,818

92,778 115,700

41,635

57,332

96,250

450,350

1988 163,216 101,443

7,152 4,534

467,655

74,014

1,305

9,522 127,519

45,996

60,411 105,830

471,429

1989 161,782 108,905

6,563 5,536

485,030

78,236 11,840 119,252 143,471

54,247

67,730 118,196

502,820

1990 177,485 115,216

7,593 5,882

519,209

89,018 15,338 138,222 155,284

62,313

75,537 129,480

533,279

1991 190,536 129,910 11,477

5,422

587,303

95,231 16,891 156,628 175,691

68,724

91,824 142,081

599,413

1992 213,048 127,635 17,059

4,767

663,054

99,624 17,588 176,223 201,190

77,054 111,577 157,448

663,823

1993 239,112 137,117 13,610 15,131

683,553 104,973 19,179 210,199 244,124

90,399 142,917 183,869

720,783

1994 253,722 144,327 16,087 17,895

786,775 109,018 20,344 244,471 281,311

99,547 176,761 200,089

799,634

1995 280,034 148,838 22,849 20,925

909,408 103,390 22,342 280,957 324,967 110,334 222,187 220,765

900,300

1996 289,846 157,983 27,545 26,861

883,546 108,753 24,586 309,817 346,544 119,434 200,783 203,733

970,427

1997 293,265 163,487 32,212 29,739

868,031 100,472 26,621 323,631 362,166 126,650 181,423 188,689 1,006,430

1998 287,563 166,486 49,915 14,055

691,398

98,413 26,496 200,636 296,093 106,788 114,639 164,220

977,268

1999 291,072 144,774 46,711 16,535

775,412 111,304 29,264 210,833 341,198 124,391 130,905 173,912

964,048

2000 280,714 129,638 51,829 15,348

968,624 110,550 30,638 227,677 396,215 151,272 161,353 177,242

938,264

2001 286,895 120,188 57,457 15,334 1,045,990 105,826 33,011 244,788 413,165 161,134 171,842 181,414

951,864

2002 296,544 114,001 59,022 17,179 1,126,582 107,857 35,906 266,476 432,675 172,990 186,237 187,148

965,311

2003 308,850 126,108 59,252 18,235 1,218,198 109,955 37,546 291,390 458,915 191,963 201,358 193,937

898,024

2004 318,366 142,603 56,444 18,760 1,332,921 114,531 39,185 321,116 485,837 214,159 218,760 200,501

993,557

2005 327,454 150,890 63,490 19,173 1,443,440 120,201 41,577 354,987 529,622 231,137 237,963 208,776 1,012,894 2006 336,801 162,908 65,416 19,594 1,553,123 129,254 44,115 357,431 557,353 217,393 258,852 217,393 1,032,607 2007 346,416 175,883 67,401 20,025 1,671,140 138,090 45,808 401,891 595,197 229,365 281,574 226,365 1,052,704 2008 356,304 189,892 69,446 20,466 1,798,125 145,458 47,966 451,882 653,155 245,707 306,291 235,707 1,073,193 2009 408,060 205,016 71,552 20,916 1,817,389 156,015 51,493 572,169 688,130 265,435 313,177 245,435 1,094,079 2010 467,333 221,345 73,723 21,376 1,836,861 169,820 55,279 624,476 729,422 291,065 332,424 255,565 1,115,373 2011 495,216 238,975 75,960 21,846 1,856,540 185,836 60,343 635,325 792,734 306,112 374,238 266,112 1,137,081 2012 524,763 258,009 78,264 22,326 1,876,431 203,333 65,872 677,566 871,168 327,095 408,441 277,095 1,159,211

104



TK10 TK11

TK12

TOTTK

Tahun TK01 TK02 TK03 TK04 TK05 TK06 TK07 TK08

TK09

1980

31,215 266

17

9

5,893

25

58 1,003

6,741 1,693

382

7,553

54,857

1981

32,410 276

19

9

5,777

35

64 1,080

7,026 1,720

343

8,070

56,830

1982

33,563 285

21

10

5,646

48

71 1,158

7,422 1,742

306

8,602

56,875

1983

36,963 315

18

18

5,897

70

83 1,328

8,487 1,885

292

9,812

65,170

1984

40,811 345

22

20

6,102 101

97 1,512

9,719 2,025

277 11,104

72,137

1985

35,081 299

21

17

4,968 113

88 1,343

8,782 1,698

233

9,815

62,457

1986

38,073 329

24

23

5,461 128 101 1,530

9,675 1,909

260 10,824

68,338

1987

38,723 338

32

21

5,682 137 109 1,618 10,461 1,990

292 11,000

70,402

1988

40,559 357

38

24

5,852 145 115 1,745 10,649 2,120

344 10,571

72,518

1989

41,284 376

39

33

7,151 182 125 1,829 10,891 2,192

396

8,923

73,425

1990

42,377 435

52

40

7,499 194 135 2,060 11,067 2,312

478

9,198

75,851

1991

41,206 467

66

31

7,743 205 151 2,437 11,431 2,493

516

9,679

76,423

1992

42,152 436

69

19

8,039 218 162 2,515 11,747 2,574

575 10,013

78,518

1993

40,071 545

51

56

8,549 236 172 2,810 12,508 2,931

565 10,705

79,200

1994

37,858 621

56

63 10,542 296 183 3,558 13,967 3,377

624 10,890

82,038

1995

35,233 541

53

48

9,844 281 216 3,768 13,883 3,458

659 12,122

80,110

1996

37,721 648

63

62 10,468 306 164 3,796 16,102 3,943

690 11,739

85,702

1997

35,848 747

77

71 10,890 324 233 4,200 17,221 4,138

657 12,641

87,050

1998

39,415 560

89

25

9,640 292 148 3,522 16,815 4,154

618 12,394

87,672

1999

38,378 599

93

32 11,171 344 188 3,415 17,530 4,206

634 12,225

88,817

2000

40,677 630 105

31 11,289 353 202 3,497 18,489 4,554

883

9,127

89,838

2001

39,744 686 117

31 11,714 371 214 3,838 17,469 4,448 1,127 11,045

90,807

2002

40,634 519

85

27 11,733 377 178 4,274 17,795 4,673

91,647

2003

42,001 599

95

34 10,583 344 156 4,107 16,846 4,977 1,294

2004

992 10,361 9,747

90,785

40,609 850 138

46 10,719 353 231 4,540 19,120 5,481 1,125 10,514

93,772

2005

41,814 664 142

47 11,277 376 237 4,417 18,897 5,553 1,243 10,577

94,948

2006

43,055 679 146

48 11,864 400 243 4,297 18,677 5,626 1,373 11,640

96,139

2007

44,332 694 150

49 12,482 427 249 4,181 18,459 5,700 1,517 12,811

97,344

2008

45,648 709 155

50 13,131 454 256 4,068 18,243 5,775 1,677 14,099

98,565

2009

47,002 725 159

51 13,815 484 263 3,957 18,031 5,851 1,852 15,516

99,801

2010

48,397 741 164

52 14,534 516 269 3,850 17,820 5,927 2,047 17,076

101,053

2011

49,833 757 169

53 15,291 549 276 3,746 17,613 6,005 2,261 18,793

102,320

2012

51,312 774 173

55 16,087 585 284 3,644 17,407 6,084 2,499 20,682

103,603

105



Tahun OE01

OE02

OE03

OE04

OE05

OE06

OE07

OE08

1980

72,970

37,223

14,096

8,092

308,090

37,399

8,757

1981

83,731

40,205

15,942

7,554

332,663

38,725

1982

87,849

40,214

15,304

7,557

1983

93,680

45,265

1984 100,187

OE09

OE10

OE11

OE12

TOTOE

86,669 113,256

43,632

42,018

77,965

57,325

9,721 109,124 126,371

48,231

47,256

86,953

65,555

327,356

36,660 10,010 137,962 129,733

48,883

49,050

92,123

68,700

12,170 11,863

347,601

39,139 10,359 146,241 138,372

51,991

52,607

94,050

73,029

54,182

13,217 12,191

364,886

41,591 10,853 140,773 145,702

54,721

55,334

97,694

78,209

1985 105,560

55,587

13,980 11,898

365,553

40,911 11,208 164,949 149,689

55,664

59,174 102,584

82,431

1986 121,537

61,150

15,608 14,504

408,174

46,297 12,570 201,235 167,086

61,500

60,966 106,035

95,252

1987 127,400

67,556

19,046 13,079

439,334

51,027 13,352 199,430 177,401

65,583

64,841 107,822

99,650

1988 134,129

71,655

20,257 12,840

457,056

52,494 14,273 186,464 186,195

68,732

68,738 114,557 104,728

1989 142,324

77,576

19,346 16,322

494,994

57,739 15,422 210,964 201,093

74,354

74,364 124,464 110,777

1990 153,971

84,212

21,187 16,414

531,328

61,048 16,898 255,911 218,785

80,710

81,691 131,110 119,262

1991 171,598

94,588

29,101 13,747

598,146

70,041 18,496 265,052 243,852

89,867

90,976 141,409 133,503

1992 188,728 102,563

37,492 10,476

657,488

78,315 20,003 277,679 267,332

98,278

99,943 149,570 147,761

1993 202,246 108,663

24,597 27,344

709,216

84,617 21,573 299,312 291,908 107,121 112,181 154,278 158,765

1994 229,380 117,860

27,709 30,824

792,535

94,226 23,853 323,419 328,646 119,699 126,576 162,997 180,692

1995 265,615 124,493

34,399 31,502

901,105 104,716 27,353 362,686 376,293 137,019 146,874 175,587 209,924

1996 289,447 130,358

36,771 35,858

949,835 111,743 27,919 381,071 395,045 144,306 153,741 183,186 230,565

1997 306,555 130,194

40,304 37,208

987,857 117,866 27,866 407,256 408,384 149,767 158,692 187,650 245,804

1998 284,458 129,806

51,442 14,485

920,278 115,046 23,039 235,997 360,576 133,298 133,900 166,125 232,083

1999 283,487 117,407

42,231 14,949

843,141

2000 280,712 129,638

51,829 15,348

968,624 110,550 30,638 227,677 396,215 151,272 161,353 177,242 221,792

2001 288,426 131,132

56,842 15,170 1,012,484 115,000 32,475 248,441 415,614 158,736 169,822 188,423 227,447

2002 294,792 133,358

57,275 18,611 1,047,136 116,985 34,750 252,272 433,836 166,089 179,262 204,527 231,678

2003 305,579 138,992

59,651 21,379 1,108,203 124,060 36,768 252,439 458,204 176,437 190,774 219,917 239,688

2004 316,772 147,954

66,928 22,245 1,208,808 131,563 39,462 297,353 494,584 191,501 205,408 230,914 247,819

2005 328,699 154,605

77,112 19,764 1,295,341 139,520 42,292 335,307 529,092 205,877 221,302 246,471 256,736

2006 341,075 161,555

88,845 17,560 1,388,068 147,957 45,325 378,105 566,008 221,332 238,426 263,076 265,974

92,586 26,135 216,377 356,852 132,298 141,289 167,439 229,195

2007 353,917 168,817 102,364 15,602 1,487,434 156,905 48,575 426,367 605,499 237,948 256,875 280,800 275,544 2008 367,243 176,406 117,940 13,862 1,593,912 166,395 52,059 480,788 647,746 255,810 276,751 299,718 285,459 2009 381,070 184,336 135,886 12,316 1,708,013 176,458 55,792 542,155 692,940 275,014 298,165 319,910 295,730 2010 395,418 192,623 156,562 10,942 1,830,282 187,130 59,793 611,356 741,288 295,659 321,237 341,463 306,371 2011 410,306 201,282 180,385

9,722 1,961,304 198,447 64,082 689,389 793,009 317,855 346,093 364,468 317,395

2012 425,755 210,330 207,832

8,638 2,101,704 210,449 68,677 777,382 848,338 341,716 372,873 389,023 328,815

106



Tahun MDEF

POP

IHPBG IHPBAG IHPBMQ IHPBMF IHPBIM IHPBEX IHPBENO IHPBEO

1980

7.30

148,040

9.40

9.60

12.40

10.80

10.80

10.00

7.60

8.30

1981

7.90

151,315

10.30

10.70

15.00

12.20

11.80

10.90

7.50

9.50

1982

8.20

154,662

11.10

11.50

17.50

13.40

12.60

11.40

7.80

9.90

1983

9.70

158,083

13.70

13.60

19.10

15.70

15.40

13.60

10.80

11.40

1984

9.20

161,580

14.70

15.30

20.80

17.70

17.10

15.40

12.80

12.40

1985

9.30

164,630

15.40

16.10

22.80

19.00

17.90

15.60

13.00

13.00

1986

9.50

168,348

17.10

16.10

24.30

20.40

19.30

11.80

14.00

8.40

1987

12.40

172,010

19.20

19.70

25.70

23.40

23.60

16.30

19.10

9.25

1988

16.90

175,589

19.40

20.80

27.70

25.90

24.40

16.80

20.80

11.70

1989

18.40

179,136

21.60

22.50

30.40

27.40

26.60

17.90

21.90

12.80

1990

19.80

179,830

25.30

24.70

32.80

29.10

28.60

21.90

22.00

17.10

1991

20.40

182,340

25.20

26.00

36.40

32.10

30.00

21.20

22.80

16.00

1992

22.00

186,043

25.90

27.30

39.10

34.10

31.10

21.90

23.90

16.50

1993

23.40

189,136

26.60

28.30

42.30

36.00

31.60

21.70

25.40

15.50

1994

23.90

192,217

29.50

29.90

46.10

38.30

32.10

21.70

28.90

14.80

1995

25.70

195,294

32.30

33.30

51.90

42.40

34.40

24.50

33.60

16.40

1996

27.00

198,320

34.80

35.90

57.50

43.90

36.20

28.00

34.50

19.90

1997

29.50

201,353

44.40

39.10

61.70

45.50

38.90

32.80

39.00

23.50

1998

72.90

204,393

75.50

79.20

76.80

75.20

89.40

81.70

112.00

54.90

1999

89.70

207,437

84.80

87.80

96.60

94.60

92.80

75.20

91.10

56.70

2000

100.00

205,843

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

2001

114.80

208,437

108.50

114.20

116.20

111.00

112.40

110.90

125.50

102.00

2002

118.90

211,063

118.00

125.00

121.00

124.00

112.00

108.00

109.00

106.00

2003

125.60

213,722

122.00

130.00

123.00

130.00

114.00

109.00

107.00

115.00

2004

130.40

216,415

131.00

137.00

135.00

136.00

127.00

121.00

112.00

149.00

2005

133.20

219,142

132.50

148.20

147.10

158.20

148.50

145.30

209.90

124.50

2006

140.09

221,230

136.70

171.60

168.80

194.80

162.30

153.70

228.80

129.50

2007

147.88

225,642

195.00

214.00

187.00

218.00

186.00

167.00

241.00

143.00

2008

156.90

228,523

201.25

275.00

199.15

273.00

235.00

209.00

345.00

166.00

2009

166.65

231,369

232.70

208.80

212.09

164.80

156.60

134.10

108.20

142.40

2010

177.49

237,641

245.60

231.40

225.87

172.00

160.80

138.00

124.50

142.00

2011

189.15

242,284

263.30

248.80

240.55

180.30

177.40

154.10

153.10

148.00

2012

202.29

245,191

282.50

263.00

256.17

187.30

188.70

163.20

172.15

154.25

107



Tahun

IHKF

IHKH

IHKC

IHKM

IHKE

IHKT

INFL IHKJPN ERJPN IHKUSA PDBUSA

1980

11.20

14.90

16.80

12.30

14.50

11.80 11.20

75.20

2.80

57.60

5,197.00

1981

12.90

16.70

18.20

13.30

16.40

12.90 12.20

78.90

2.90

62.50

5,324.00

1982

13.60

19.20

18.80

14.80

17.40

16.30

9.50

81.00

2.70

65.00

5,216.00

1983

14.90

21.10

19.60 156.40

18.70

24.50 11.80

82.50

3.80 669.90

5,442.00

1984

16.30

23.90

20.30

17.60

20.70

24.50

9.30

84.40

4.30

69.20

5,837.00

1985

16.90

25.70

21.00

19.10

22.60

26.30

5.10

86.10

4.70

70.60

6,062.00

1986

18.20

26.80

21.90

20.00

24.10

26.90

5.40

86.70

7.60

70.00

6,269.00

1987

20.20

28.20

24.50

21.80

25.40

30.10

9.30

86.80

11.40

72.20

6,482.00

1988

22.00

29.70

25.80

22.70

27.80

31.20

8.40

87.40

13.10

74.70

6,753.00

1989

24.00

31.60

26.90

23.60

29.50

31.70

6.40

89.30

12.70

78.20

6,986.00

1990

25.80

34.40

27.90

25.20

31.90

34.60

7.10

92.10

12.70

82.30

7,113.00

1991

28.30

37.40

29.30

27.20

34.10

40.80

9.10

95.10

14.40

84.90

7,101.00

1992

30.40

40.20

31.10

28.20

37.00

44.80

7.50

96.70

16.00

86.50

7,337.00

1993

32.50

45.60

34.00

31.60

40.30

50.00

9.70

97.90

18.70

88.20

7,533.00

1994

35.10

50.00

36.20

36.10

44.40

50.50

8.50

98.60

21.10

89.70

7,836.00

1995

39.20

54.50

38.50

39.90

49.30

51.70

9.40

98.50

23.90

91.50

8,032.00

1996

41.90

57.10

40.80

43.50

54.40

54.70

7.00

98.60

21.40 938.00

8,329.00

1997

44.70

60.00

42.50

47.20

59.50

56.80

6.20 100.40

23.80

95.10

8,704.00

1998

79.90

80.10

77.80

77.90

79.70

79.40 58.00 101.00

77.80

95.10

9,067.00

1999

99.60

93.70

93.80

94.70

89.90

92.70 20.70 100.70

69.00

96.80

9,470.00

78.10 100.00

9,817.00

2000

100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

2001

111.20 112.00 109.20 112.20 114.90 113.90 11.50

99.30

83.70 101.00

9,891.00

2002

123.90 128.30 114.30 118.50 128.10 134.20 11.90

98.40

74.30 100.40

10,049.00

2003

129.90 143.30 119.30 125.70 138.90 143.20

6.80

98.10

73.80 101.30

10,321.00

2004

136.30 154.50 125.90 131.50 152.60 150.00

6.10

98.10

83.60 103.70

10,756.00

2005

148.90 168.60 133.00 137.70 167.00 180.50 10.50

97.80

87.80 107.40

11,131.00

2006

167.51 189.68 149.63 154.91 187.88 203.06

6.60 110.03

98.78 120.83

12,522.38

2007

188.45 213.38 168.33 174.28 211.36 218.45

6.60 123.78 111.12 135.93

14,087.67

2008

212.01 240.06 189.37 196.06 237.78 227.00 11.10 139.25 125.01 152.92

15,848.63

2009

238.51 270.06 213.04 220.57 267.50 229.13

2.80 156.66 140.64 172.03

17,829.71

2010

268.32 303.82 239.67 248.14 300.94 325.27

6.96 176.24 158.22 193.54

20,058.42

2011

301.86 341.80 269.63 279.16 338.56 335.93

3.79 198.27 178.00 217.73

22,565.73

2012

339.60 384.53 303.33 314.05 380.88 338.00

6.80 223.05 200.25 244.95

25,386.44

108

3.80 100.00



Tahun

ERUS

POIL

SEGI

SNEGI

GGWL GIWL

PNS

RTAX

PBBM

1980

628

35.60

60,381

18,419

2.18

0.45

1,956,864

2,912

150

1981

632

36.00

61,929

17,542

2.18

0.44

2,073,301

3,202

150

1982

662

32.90

63,517

16,707

1.13 -0.62

2,196,667

3,771

240

1983

910

29.50

65,146

15,911

3.00

1.24

2,628,474

4,504

320

1984

1,027

26.70

66,816

15,154

4.76

2.98

2,785,645

4,794

350

1985

1,112

26.30

68,529

15,230

3.79

2.01

2,956,082

6,330

385

1986

1,278

18.00

70,287

15,306

3.70

1.91

3,159,652

8,482

385

1987

1,644

18.40

72,089

15,383

3.92

2.13

3,403,408

9,931

385

1988

1,684

15.70

73,937

15,382

4.74

2.98

3,529,640

12,345

385

1989

1,758

20.90

75,833

15,380

3.79

2.07

3,541,961

16,084

385

1990

1,834

28.70

77,778

15,379

2.94

1.28

3,587,337

22,011

450

1991

1,939

17.70

79,772

15,377

1.64

0.04

3,648,005

24,919

550

1992

2,026

17.90

81,817

16,186

2.37

0.83

3,655,428

30,092

550

1993

2,084

13.00

83,915

16,601

2.43

0.94

3,662,336

36,665

700

1994

2,159

16.30

86,067

17,027

3.83

2.38

3,725,231

44,442

700

1995

2,244

18.80

81,968

17,464

3.70

2.28

3,771,285

48,686

700

1996

2,327

23.60

78,065

17,912

4.08

2.68

3,876,892

57,340

700

1997

2,881

15.90

74,348

18,371

4.24

2.87

3,932,766

70,934

700

1998

10,179

10.60

70,807

18,099

2.73

1.39

3,945,778

102,395

1200

1999

7,850

24.90

67,436

17,832

3.77

2.46

3,965,778

24,919

1150

2000

8,418

22.50

64,224

17,568

4.84

3.57

4,005,861

115,913

887

2001

10,266

19.30

61,166

17,309

2.54

1.30

4,009,347

185,541

1075

2002

9,261

30.00

64,385

18,220

3.11

1.90

4,030,220

210,087

1519

2003

8,571

30.50

67,774

19,179

4.03

2.84

4,060,432

242,048

1747

2004

8,985

40.20

71,341

20,188

5.26

4.09

4,067,201

280,559

1739

2005

9,751

58.90

104,449

16,316

4.85

3.69

4,083,360

347,031

2727

2006

9,141

64.20

94,605

12,827

5.43

4.28

4,090,437

409,203

4423

2007

9,140

72.31

116,866

33,349

5.23

4.09

4,094,346

490,989

4425

2008

9,691

96.90

223,013

52,278

3.20

3.70

4,094,346

658,701

5275

2009

10,408

61.60

94,586

43,496

4.62

4.02

4,524,205

619,922

4500

2010

9,078

79.40

139,953

52,754

4.35

3.94

4,598,100

723,307

4500

2011

8,779

111.50

255,609

39,749

4.25

4.50

4,708,330

723,934

4500

2012

9,384

105.00

202,353

42,723

3.35

2.85

4,821,203

724,561

4500

109



No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

110

Kode CON GOV INV EKS XMC XIMC XPC IMP MBKC MBBC MBMC PDB Growth XDEF PDBDEF MS IHKG PNMIG PMIG TOTPG DR IRN OA01 OA02 OA03 OA04 OA05 OA06 OA07 OA08 OA09 OA10 OA11 OA12 TOTOA TK01 TK02 TK03 TK04 TK05

Deskripsi Konsumsi RT Konsumsi Pemerintah PMBT + STOK Ekspor Ekspor Migas Ekspor Industri Manufactur Ekspor Barang primer + lainnya Import Impor Barang Konsumsi Impor Bahan Baku Impor Barang Modal Produk Domestik Bruto Growth Deflator Ekpsor PDB Deflator Jumlah Uang Beredar M2 IHK Indonensia Penerimaan Pemerintah Non Migas Penerimaan Pemeirntah dari Migas Total Penerimaan Pemerintah Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan Suku Bunga Pinjaman (Investasi) Output Actual Pertanin Output Actual Pertambangan Migas Output Actual Pertambangan Non Migas Output Actual Penggalian Lainnya Output Actual Industri Pengolahan Output Actual Industri Pengilangan Minyak Output Actual LGA Output Actual Konstruksi Output Actual Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Output Actual Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Output Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Output Actual Jasa-Jasa Total Output Actual Tenaga Kerja Pertanian Tenaga Kerja Pertambangan Migas Tenaga Kerja Pertambangan Non Migas Tenaga Kerja Penggalian Lainnya Tenaga Kerja industri pengolahan

Satuan Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta % Indeks Indeks Rp Miliar Indeks Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta % % Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa



No 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80

111

Kode TK06 TK07 TK08 TK09 TK10 TK11 TK12 TOTTK IC01 IC02 IC03 IC04 IC05 IC06 IC07 IC08 IC09 IC10 IC11 IC12 TOTIC OE01 OE02 OE03 OE04 OE05 OE06 OE07 OE08 OE09 OE10 OE11 OE12 TOTOE MDEF POP IHPBG IHPBAG IHPBMQ IHPBMF

Deskripsi Tenaga Kerja Industri Pengilangan Minyak Tenaga Kerja LGA Tenaga Kerja Konstruksi Tenaga Kerja Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Tenaga Kerja Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi TK Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Tenaga Kerja Jasa-Jasa Total Tenaga Kerja Income Pertanian Pendapatan Pertambangan Migas Pendapatan Pertambangan Non Migas Pendapatan Penggalian Lainnya Pendapatan Industri Pengolahan Pendapatan Industri Pengilangan Minyak Pendapatan LGA Pendapatan Konstruksi Pendapatan Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Pendapatan Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Pendapatan Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Pendapatan Jasa-Jasa Total Income Sektoral Ouptut estimate Pertanian Ouptut estimate Pertambangan Migas Ouptut estimate Pertambangan Non Migas Ouptut estimate Penggalian Lainnya Ouptut estimate Industri Pengolahan Ouptut estimate Industri Pengilangan Minyak Ouptut estimate LGA Ouptut estimate Konstruksi Ouptut estimate Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran Ouptut estimate Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi OE Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan Ouptut estimate Jasa-Jasa Total Output Estimate Delator Impor Populasi Indonesia IHPB Umum IHPB Pertanian IHPB Pertambangan IHPB Industri Manufactur

Satuan Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Ribu Jiwa Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Rp Juta Indeks Ribu Jiwa Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks



No 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104

112

Kode IHPBIM IHPBEX IHPBENO IHPBEO IHKF IHKH IHKC IHKM IHKE IHKT INFL IHKJPN ERJPN IHKUSA PDBUSA ERUS POIL SEGI SNEGI GGWL GIWL PNS RTAX PBBM

Deskripsi IHPB Impor IHPB Ekspor IHPB Ekspor Migas IHPB Ekspor Non Migas Indeks harga konsumen makanan Indeks harga konsumen perumahan Indeks harga konsumen pakaian Indeks harga konsumen obat-obatan Indeks harga konsumen pendidikan Indeks harga konsumen transportasi Tingkat Inflasi IHK Jepang Nilai Tukar Yen IHK USA PDB USA Nilai Tukar Dollar Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Subsidi Energi Subsidi Non Energi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia Pertumbuhan Pendapatan Dunia Jumlah PNS Penerimaan Pajak Harga BBM Premium

Satuan Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks Indeks % Indeks Rp/Yen Indeks $US Rp/$ US $ US/barrel Rp Miliar Rp Miliar % % Jiwa Rp Juta Rp/Liter



ods rtf file="D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_Energi \tabulasi.rtf"; proc import datafile="D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_En ergi\Tabel_IO_2005.xls" dbms=EXCEL2002 out=work.z replace; sheet='Agregasi12'; getnames=yes; run; proc iml; use work.z; read all var _num_ into z; /* Mengambil nilai intermediate input dan total input */ trans = z [1:12,2:13]; tinput = z [21,2:13]; /* mendiagonalkan matriks total input */ dtinput=diag(tinput); /* menginverse matriks total input */ dinv =inv(dtinput); teknis =trans*dinv; identity=I(12); IA =identity-teknis; mult_out=inv(IA); sig_b =mult_out[+,]; gabung =mult_out//sig_b; sig_k =gabung[,+]; sektor =gabung||sig_k; kolom={S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12}; baris={S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12}; print teknis [rowname=baris colname=kolom format=8.6]; print identity ia mult_out sig_b gabung sig_k sektor [rowname=baris colname=kolom]; create mydata from mult_out; append from mult_out; data multiple; set mydata; run; PROC EXPORT DATA=multiple OUTFILE='D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_Ene rgi\Multiplier.xls' DBMS=EXCEL2002 REPLACE; SHEET='Multiplier'; RUN; 113


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan proc import datafile="D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_En ergi\data_olah_agregasi_final.xls" dbms=EXCEL2002 out=work.exog_f replace; sheet='exog_f'; getnames=yes; run; data bappenas; set exog_f; if tahun > 2012 then delete; if

1997 < Tahun < 1999 then D1998 =1; else D1998 =0;

TOTTK = TK01+TK02+TK03+TK04+TK05+TK06+TK07+TK08+TK09+TK10+TK11+TK12; TOTIC = IC01+IC02+IC03+IC04+IC05+IC06+IC07+IC08+IC09+IC10+IC11+IC12; LnCON =Log(CON); LnINV =Log(INV); LnGOV =Log(GOV); LnEKS =Log(EKS); LnIMP =Log(IMP); PDB =exp(LnCON)+exp(LnINV)+exp(LnGOV)+exp(LnEKS)-exp(LnIMP); LnXMC =Log(XMC); LnXIMC=Log(XIMC); LnXPC =Log(XPC); LnMBKC=Log(MBKC); LnMBBC=Log(MBBC); LnMBMC=Log(MBMC); LnPNMIG =Log(PNMIG); LnPMIG =Log(PMIG); TOTPG =exp(LnPnMIG) + exp(LnPMIG); LnMS =Log(MS); LnIRN =Log(IRN); LnDR =Log(DR); LnIHKG=Log(IHKG); LnXDEF=Log(XDEF); LnPDBDEF=Log(PDBDEF); LnOA01=Log(OA01); LnTK01=Log(TK01); LnOA02=Log(OA02); LnTK02=Log(TK02); LnOA03=Log(OA03); LnTK03=Log(TK03); LnOA04=Log(OA04); LnTK04=Log(TK04); LnOA05=Log(OA05); LnTK05=Log(TK05); LnOA06=Log(OA06); LnTK06=Log(TK06); LnOA07=Log(OA07); LnTK07=Log(TK07); LnOA08=Log(OA08); LnTK08=Log(TK08); LnOA09=Log(OA09); LnTK09=Log(TK09); LnOA10=Log(OA10); LnTK10=Log(TK10); LnOA11=Log(OA11); LnTK11=Log(TK11); LnOA12=Log(OA12); LnTK12=Log(TK12); YD = PDB - RTAX; LnYD = Log(YD); 114

LnIC01=Log(IC01); LnIC02=Log(IC02); LnIC03=Log(IC03); LnIC04=Log(IC04); LnIC05=Log(IC05); LnIC06=Log(IC06); LnIC07=Log(IC07); LnIC08=Log(IC08); LnIC09=Log(IC09); LnIC10=Log(IC10); LnIC11=Log(IC11); LnIC12=Log(IC12);


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan OE01=0.000000*OA01 + 0.000077*OA02 +0.429460*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.018853*OA06 0.066149*OA07 + 0.000148*OA08 + 0.000129*OA09 0.020817*OA10 + 0.601903*OA11 + 0.368940*OA12 0.368940*CON + 0.002601*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.035414*EKS; OE02=0.000002*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.244660*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.043196*OA05 + 0.000000*OA06 0.000028*OA07 + 0.000184*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.367401*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.614892*EKS; OE03=0.076265*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.177183*OA03 + 0.202750*OA04 + 0.030992*OA05 + 0.000019*OA06 0.000000*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.487208*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.003812*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.497469*EKS; OE04=0.000000*OA01 + 0.004771*OA02 +0.098966*OA03 + 0.000007*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.853101*OA06 0.000263*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.018629*OA10 + 0.975742*OA11 + 0.000355*OA12 0.000355*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.024668*EKS; OE05=0.000298*OA01 + 0.000595*OA02 +0.202228*OA03 + 0.000201*OA04 + 0.001506*OA05 + 0.076828*OA06 0.039187*OA07 + 0.007836*OA08 + 0.004646*OA09 0.045924*OA10 + 0.404770*OA11 + 0.311333*OA12 0.311333*CON + 0.027766*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.246739*EKS; OE06=0.000120*OA01 + 0.004868*OA02 +0.100039*OA03 + 0.016572*OA04 + 0.077489*OA05 + 0.109803*OA06 0.046190*OA07 + 0.176334*OA08 + 0.003609*OA09 0.008073*OA10 + 0.557585*OA11 + 0.003438*OA12 0.003438*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.426913*EKS; OE07=0.000078*OA01 + 0.000306*OA02 +0.271476*OA03 + 0.000580*OA04 + 0.151912*OA05 + 0.002791*OA06 0.121636*OA07 + 0.045111*OA08 + 0.025666*OA09 0.064730*OA10 + 0.690049*OA11 + 0.309951*OA12 0.309951*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE08=0.000062*OA01 + 0.002769*OA02 +0.004144*OA03 + 0.000086*OA04 + 0.001466*OA05 + 0.001019*OA06 0.016030*OA07 + 0.011026*OA08 + 0.017466*OA09 0.019826*OA10 + 0.085506*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.914494*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE09=0.000232*OA01 + 0.001050*OA02 +0.147174*OA03 + 0.000513*OA04 + 0.004409*OA05 + 0.067286*OA06 0.042167*OA07 + 0.018112*OA08 + 0.006623*OA09 0.041377*OA10 + 0.346894*OA11 + 0.485700*OA12 0.485700*CON + 0.026743*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.138132*EKS; OE10=0.000221*OA01 + 0.001404*OA02 +0.132638*OA03 + 0.000586*OA04 + 0.002670*OA05 + 0.039501*OA06 0.089918*OA07 + 0.072040*OA08 + 0.023382*OA09 0.044518*OA10 + 0.427697*OA11 + 0.405897*OA12

115

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Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan 0.405897*CON + 0.016055*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.148799*EKS; OE11=0.001270*OA01 + 0.002058*OA02 +0.123681*OA03 + 0.002445*OA04 + 0.006929*OA05 + 0.062869*OA06 0.168460*OA07 + 0.045308*OA08 + 0.133265*OA09 0.051301*OA10 + 0.621434*OA11 + 0.329023*OA12 0.329023*CON + 0.003272*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.046272*EKS; OE12=0.000292*OA01 + 0.001462*OA02 +0.038316*OA03 + 0.000702*OA04 + 0.000319*OA05 + 0.006338*OA06 0.021276*OA07 + 0.066549*OA08 + 0.022442*OA09 0.036262*OA10 + 0.203386*OA11 + 0.320462*OA12 0.320462*CON + 0.016104*INV + 0.414298*GOV + 0.045750*EKS;

+ + +

+ + +

LnOE01=Log(OE01); LnOE02=Log(OE02); LnOE03=Log(OE03); LnOE04=Log(OE04); LnOE05=Log(OE05); LnOE06=Log(OE06); LnOE07=Log(OE07); LnOE08=Log(OE08); LnOE09=Log(OE09); LnOE10=Log(OE10); LnOE11=Log(OE11); LnOE12=Log(OE12); run; data oe; set bappenas; keep tahun OE01 OE02 OE03 OE04 OE05 OE06 OE07 OE08 OE09 OE10 OE11 OE12; run; /* Proses Estimasi */ proc model data=bappenas outmodel=my_model OUTPARMS=hasil; ENDOGENOUS LnCON LnINV LnGOV LnEKS LnIMP LnXIMC LnXPC LnXMC LnMBBC LnMBMC LnMS LnIRN LnDR LnIHKG LnPDBDEF LnPNMIG LnPMIG LnOA01 LnOA02 LnOA03 LnOA04 LnOA05 LnOA06 LnOA07 LnOA08 LnOA10 LnOA11 LnOA12 LnTK01 LnTK02 LnTK03 LnTK04 LnTK05 LnTK06 LnTK07 LnTK08 LnTK10 LnTK11 LnTK12 LnIC01 LnIC02 LnIC03 LnIC04 LnIC05 LnIC06 LnIC07 LnIC08 LnIC10 LnIC11 LnIC12 PDB;

LnMBKC LnOA09 LnTK09 LnIC09

instruments YD SEGI SNEGI POP D1998 TOTPG PNS GGWL ERUS IHKUSA PDBUSA IHPBEX INFL PDBDEF POIL RTAX PDB; LnOE01=Log(OE01); LnOE02=Log(OE02); LnOE03=Log(OE03); LnOE04=Log(OE04); LnOE05=Log(OE05); LnOE06=Log(OE06); LnOE07=Log(OE07); LnOE08=Log(OE08); LnOE09=Log(OE09); 116


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan LnOE10=Log(OE10); LnOE11=Log(OE11); LnOE12=Log(OE12); LnYD =Log(YD); LnCON = a10 + a11*Log(TOTIC) + a12*Log(PDB) + a13*Log(RTAX) + a14*Lag(LnCON); LnINV = a20 + a21*LnIRN + a22*Log(INFL) + a23*D1998 + a24*Lag(LnINV); LnGOV = a31*Log(TOTPG) + a32*Log(SEGI+SNEGI) + a33*Log(PNS) + a34*D1998+ a35*Log(PBBM) + a36*Lag(LnGOV); LnEKS = a40 + a41*Log(GGWL) + a42*Log(ERUS) + a43*Lag(LnEKS); LnIMP = a50 + a51*Log(MDEF) + a52*Log(ERUS) + a53*Log(PDB); LnXIMC= a60 + a61*Log(GGWL) + a62*D1998 + a63*Log(ERUS) + a64*Lag(LnXIMC); LnXPC = a70 + a71*Log(PDBUSA) + a72*Log(GGWL) + a73*Lag(LnXPC); LnXMC = a80 + a81*Log(GGWL) + a82*Log(ERUS) + a83*Log(IHPBEX) + a84*Lag(LnXMC); LnMBKC= a90 + a91*Log(PDB) + a92*Log(IHKG) + a93*Lag(LnMBKC); LnMBBC= b10 + b11*Log(PDB) + b12*Log(IHKG) + b13*Lag(LnMBBC); LnMBMC= b20 + b21*Log(PDB) + b22*LnIRN + b23*Lag(LnMBMC); LnMS = b30 + b31*LnIHKG + b32*Log(PDB) + b33*LnDR + b34*Lag(LnMS); LnIRN = b40 + b41*dif(LnMS)+ b42*Log(ERUS) + b43*Log(INFL) + b44*Lag(LnIRN); LnDR = b50 + b51*LnIHKG + b52*LnIRN; LnIHKG= b60 + b61*Log(PBBM) + b62*Log(INFL) + b63*Lag(LnIHKG) + b64*Log(ERUS); LnPDBDEF= b70 + b71*Log(ERUS) + b72*LnIHKG + b73*Lag(LnPDBDEF); LnPNMIG = b80 + b81*LnXIMC + b83*LnIHKG + b84*Lag(LnPNMIG); LnPMIG= b90 + b91*LnXMC + b92*ERUS + b93*Log(POIL) + b94*Lag(LnPMIG); PDB = exp(LnCON) + exp(LnINV) + exp(LnGOV) + exp(LnEKS) exp(LnIMP); TOTPG = exp(LnPnMIG) + exp(LnPMIG); LnOA01 = c010 + c011*Log(PDB) + c012*Lag(LnTK01) + c013*dif(Log(IHPBAG)) + c014*D1998 + c015*Lag(LnOA01); LnOA02 = c020 + c021*LnTK02 + c022*Log(IHPBMQ)+ c023*Lag(LnOA02) ; LnOA03 = c030 + c031*LnTK03 + c032*Log(PDB) + c033*D1998 + c034*Lag(LnOA03); LnOA04 = c040 + c041*LnTK04 + c043*Log(IHPBENO) + c045*Lag(LnOA04); LnOA05 = c050 + c051*Log(PDB/exp(LnTK05)) + c052*Log(tahun) + c053*Lag(LnOA05); LnOA06 = c060 + c062*Log(PDB/exp(LnTK06)) + c063*Log(IHPBEO) + c065*Lag(LnOA06); LnOA07 = c070 + c071*Log(PDB/exp(LnTK07)) + c073*Log(Tahun) + c074*Lag(LnOA07); LnOA08 = c081*Log(PDB/exp(LnTK08)) + c084*Lag(LnOA08); LnOA09 = c090 + c091*Log(PDB/exp(LnTK09)) + c093*D1998 + c094*Lag(LnOA09); LnOA10 = c100 + c101*LnTK10 + c102*Log(PBBM) + c103*Log(Tahun) + c104*Lag(LnOA10); LnOA11 = c111*Log(PDB) + c112*LnTK11 + c113*D1998 + c115*Lag(LnOA11); LnOA12 = c121*Log(PDB) + c122*LnTK12 + c123*D1998 + c124*Lag(LnOA12); 117



LnTK01 LnTK02 LnTK03 LnTK04 LnTK05 LnTK06 LnTK07 LnTK08 LnTK09 LnTK10 LnTK11 LnTK12

= = = = = = = = = = = =

d010 d020 d030 d040 d050 d060 d070 d080 d090 d100 d110 d120

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d011*LnOA01 d021*LnOA02 d031*LnOA03 d041*LnOA04 d051*LnOA05 d061*LnOA06 d071*LnOA07 d081*LnOA08 d091*LnOA09 d101*LnOA10 d111*LnOA11 d121*LnOA12

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d012*Lag(LnTK01); d022*Lag(LnTK02); d032*Lag(LnTK03); d042*Lag(LnTK04); d052*Lag(LnTK05); d062*Lag(LnTK06); d072*Lag(LnTK07); d082*Lag(LnTK08); d092*Lag(LnTK09); d102*Lag(LnTK10); d112*Lag(LnTK11); d122*Lag(LnTK12);

LnIC01 LnIC02 LnIC03 LnIC04 LnIC05 LnIC06 LnIC07 LnIC08 LnIC09 LnIC10 LnIC11 LnIC12

= = = = = = = = = = = =

e010 e020 e030 e040 e050 e060 e070 e080 e090 e100 e110 e120

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e011*LnTK01 + e012*Lag(LnIC01); e021*LnTK02 + e022*Lag(LnIC02); e031*LnTK03 + e032*Lag(LnIC03); e041*LnTK04 + e042*Lag(LnIC04); e051*LnTK05 + e052*Lag(LnIC05); e061*dif(LnTK06) + e062*Lag(LnIC06); e071*LnTK07 + e072*Lag(LnIC07); e081*LnTK08 + e082*Lag(LnIC08); e091*LnTK09 + e092*Lag(LnIC09); e101*LnTK10 + e102*Lag(LnIC10); e111*LnTK11 + e112*Lag(LnIC11); e121*LnTK12 + e122*Lag(LnIC12);

TOTIC = exp(LnIC01)+exp(LnIC02)+exp(LnIC03)+exp(LnIC04)+exp(LnIC05)+ exp(LnIC06)+exp(LnIC07)+exp(LnIC08)+exp(LnIC09)+exp(LnIC10)+ exp(LnIC11)+exp(LnIC12); OE01=0.000000*OA01 + 0.000077*OA02 +0.429460*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.018853*OA06 0.066149*OA07 + 0.000148*OA08 + 0.000129*OA09 0.020817*OA10 + 0.601903*OA11 + 0.368940*OA12 0.368940*CON + 0.002601*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.035414*EKS; OE02=0.000002*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.244660*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.043196*OA05 + 0.000000*OA06 0.000028*OA07 + 0.000184*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.367401*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.614892*EKS; OE03=0.076265*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.177183*OA03 + 0.202750*OA04 + 0.030992*OA05 + 0.000019*OA06 0.000000*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.487208*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.003812*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.497469*EKS; OE04=0.000000*OA01 + 0.004771*OA02 +0.098966*OA03 + 0.000007*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.853101*OA06 0.000263*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.018629*OA10 + 0.975742*OA11 + 0.000355*OA12 0.000355*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.024668*EKS; OE05=0.000298*OA01 + 0.000595*OA02 +0.202228*OA03 + 0.000201*OA04 + 0.001506*OA05 + 0.076828*OA06 118

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Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan 0.039187*OA07 + 0.007836*OA08 + 0.004646*OA09 0.045924*OA10 + 0.404770*OA11 + 0.311333*OA12 0.311333*CON + 0.027766*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.246739*EKS; OE06=0.000120*OA01 + 0.004868*OA02 +0.100039*OA03 + 0.016572*OA04 + 0.077489*OA05 + 0.109803*OA06 0.046190*OA07 + 0.176334*OA08 + 0.003609*OA09 0.008073*OA10 + 0.557585*OA11 + 0.003438*OA12 0.003438*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.426913*EKS; OE07=0.000078*OA01 + 0.000306*OA02 +0.271476*OA03 + 0.000580*OA04 + 0.151912*OA05 + 0.002791*OA06 0.121636*OA07 + 0.045111*OA08 + 0.025666*OA09 0.064730*OA10 + 0.690049*OA11 + 0.309951*OA12 0.309951*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE08=0.000062*OA01 + 0.002769*OA02 +0.004144*OA03 + 0.000086*OA04 + 0.001466*OA05 + 0.001019*OA06 0.016030*OA07 + 0.011026*OA08 + 0.017466*OA09 0.019826*OA10 + 0.085506*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.914494*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE09=0.000232*OA01 + 0.001050*OA02 +0.147174*OA03 + 0.000513*OA04 + 0.004409*OA05 + 0.067286*OA06 0.042167*OA07 + 0.018112*OA08 + 0.006623*OA09 0.041377*OA10 + 0.346894*OA11 + 0.485700*OA12 0.485700*CON + 0.026743*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.138132*EKS; OE10=0.000221*OA01 + 0.001404*OA02 +0.132638*OA03 + 0.000586*OA04 + 0.002670*OA05 + 0.039501*OA06 0.089918*OA07 + 0.072040*OA08 + 0.023382*OA09 0.044518*OA10 + 0.427697*OA11 + 0.405897*OA12 0.405897*CON + 0.016055*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.148799*EKS; OE11=0.001270*OA01 + 0.002058*OA02 +0.123681*OA03 + 0.002445*OA04 + 0.006929*OA05 + 0.062869*OA06 0.168460*OA07 + 0.045308*OA08 + 0.133265*OA09 0.051301*OA10 + 0.621434*OA11 + 0.329023*OA12 0.329023*CON + 0.003272*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.046272*EKS; OE12=0.000292*OA01 + 0.001462*OA02 +0.038316*OA03 + 0.000702*OA04 + 0.000319*OA05 + 0.006338*OA06 0.021276*OA07 + 0.066549*OA08 + 0.022442*OA09 0.036262*OA10 + 0.203386*OA11 + 0.320462*OA12 0.320462*CON + 0.016104*INV + 0.414298*GOV + 0.045750*EKS;

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fit LnCON LnINV LnGOV LnEKS LnIMP LnXIMC LnXPC LnXMC LnMBKC LnMBMC LnMS LnIRN LnDR LnIHKG LnPDBDEF LnPNMIG LnPMIG LnOA01 LnOA02 LnOA03 LnOA04 LnOA05 LnOA06 LnOA07 LnOA08 LnOA10 LnOA11 LnOA12 LnTK01 LnTK02 LnTK03 LnTK04 LnTK05 LnTK06 LnTK07 LnTK08 LnTK10 LnTK11 LnTK12 LnIC01 LnIC02 LnIC03 LnIC04 LnIC05 LnIC06 LnIC07 LnIC08 LnIC10 LnIC11 LnIC12 / dw DWPROB GODFREY=1 white N2SLS; /* label a10='Int Cons' a11='Total Pendapatan Sektoral' 119

LnMBBC LnOA09 LnTK09 LnIC09


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan a12='Disposible Income' a13='Subsidi' a14='Lag Konsumsi' a20='Int Investasi' a21='Income Perkapita' a22='Tingkat Suku Bunga Deposito' a23='Krisis Ekonomi' a24='Lag Investasi' a30='Int Goverment' a31='Total Penerimaan Pemerintah' a32='Subsidi Enegi dan Non Energi' a33='Jumlah PNS' a40='Int Export' a41='PDB USA' a42='Exchange Rate' a43='Lag Export' a50='Int Import' a51='Exchange Rate' a52='PDB Indonesia' a60='Int Exp Ind Manufactur' a61='Nilai Tukar' a62='Krisis Ekonomi' a63='Lag Exp Ind Manufactur' a70='Int Export Barang Primer' a71='GDP Amerika Serikat' a72='Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia' a73='Lag Export Barang Primer' a80='Int Export Migas' a81='Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia' a82='Exchange Rate' a83='IHPB Export' a84='Lag Export Migas' a90='Int Impor Barang Konsumsi' a91='GDP Nasional' a92='IHK Indonesia' a93='Lag Impor Barang Konsumsi' b10='Int Impor Bahan Baku' b11='GDP Nasional' b12='IHK Indonesia' b13='Lag Impor Bahan Baku' b20='Int Impor Barang Modal' b21='GDP Nasional' b22='Suku Bungan Investasi' b23='Lag Impor Barang Modal' b30='Int Suku Bunga Investasi' b31='Penawaran Uang' b32='Exchange Rate' b33='Tingkat Inflasi' */ run; /* Validasi Model */ proc simnlin data=bappenas model=my_model simulate outpredict stat theil out=validasi SEIDEL; id tahun; run; /* Peramalan */ data ram_endo; 120


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan set exog_f; if


TOTTK = TK01+TK02+TK03+TK04+TK05+TK06+TK07+TK08+TK09+TK10+TK11+TK12; TOTIC = IC01+IC02+IC03+IC04+IC05+IC06+IC07+IC08+IC09+IC10+IC11+IC12; LnCON =Log(CON); LnINV =Log(INV); LnGOV =Log(GOV); LnEKS =Log(EKS); LnIMP =Log(IMP); PDB = exp(LnCON) + exp(LnINV) + exp(LnGOV) + exp(LnEKS) exp(LnIMP); LnXMC =Log(XMC); LnXIMC=Log(XIMC); LnXPC =Log(XPC); LnMBKC=Log(MBKC); LnMBBC=Log(MBBC); LnMBMC=Log(MBMC); LnPNMIG =Log(PNMIG); LnPMIG=Log(PMIG); TOTPG =exp(LnPnMIG) + exp(LnPMIG); LnMS =Log(MS); LnIRN =Log(IRN); LnDR =Log(DR); LnIHKG=Log(IHKG); LnXDEF=Log(XDEF); LnPDBDEF=Log(PDBDEF); LnOA01=Log(OA01); LnOA02=Log(OA02); LnOA03=Log(OA03); LnOA04=Log(OA04); LnOA05=Log(OA05); LnOA06=Log(OA06); LnOA07=Log(OA07); LnOA08=Log(OA08); LnOA09=Log(OA09); LnOA10=Log(OA10); LnOA11=Log(OA11); LnOA12=Log(OA12);

LnTK01=Log(TK01); LnTK02=Log(TK02); LnTK03=Log(TK03); LnTK04=Log(TK04); LnTK05=Log(TK05); LnTK06=Log(TK06); LnTK07=Log(TK07); LnTK08=Log(TK08); LnTK09=Log(TK09); LnTK10=Log(TK10); LnTK11=Log(TK11); LnTK12=Log(TK12);


YD = PDB - RTAX; LnYD = Log(YD); OE01=0.000000*OA01 + 0.000077*OA02 +0.429460*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.018853*OA06 0.066149*OA07 + 0.000148*OA08 + 0.000129*OA09 0.020817*OA10 + 0.601903*OA11 + 0.368940*OA12 0.368940*CON + 0.002601*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.035414*EKS; OE02=0.000002*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.244660*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.043196*OA05 + 0.000000*OA06 121

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Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan 0.000028*OA07 + 0.000184*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.367401*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.614892*EKS; OE03=0.076265*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.177183*OA03 + 0.202750*OA04 + 0.030992*OA05 + 0.000019*OA06 0.000000*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.487208*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.003812*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.497469*EKS; OE04=0.000000*OA01 + 0.004771*OA02 +0.098966*OA03 + 0.000007*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.853101*OA06 0.000263*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.018629*OA10 + 0.975742*OA11 + 0.000355*OA12 0.000355*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.024668*EKS; OE05=0.000298*OA01 + 0.000595*OA02 +0.202228*OA03 + 0.000201*OA04 + 0.001506*OA05 + 0.076828*OA06 0.039187*OA07 + 0.007836*OA08 + 0.004646*OA09 0.045924*OA10 + 0.404770*OA11 + 0.311333*OA12 0.311333*CON + 0.027766*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.246739*EKS; OE06=0.000120*OA01 + 0.004868*OA02 +0.100039*OA03 + 0.016572*OA04 + 0.077489*OA05 + 0.109803*OA06 0.046190*OA07 + 0.176334*OA08 + 0.003609*OA09 0.008073*OA10 + 0.557585*OA11 + 0.003438*OA12 0.003438*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.426913*EKS; OE07=0.000078*OA01 + 0.000306*OA02 +0.271476*OA03 + 0.000580*OA04 + 0.151912*OA05 + 0.002791*OA06 0.121636*OA07 + 0.045111*OA08 + 0.025666*OA09 0.064730*OA10 + 0.690049*OA11 + 0.309951*OA12 0.309951*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE08=0.000062*OA01 + 0.002769*OA02 +0.004144*OA03 + 0.000086*OA04 + 0.001466*OA05 + 0.001019*OA06 0.016030*OA07 + 0.011026*OA08 + 0.017466*OA09 0.019826*OA10 + 0.085506*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.914494*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE09=0.000232*OA01 + 0.001050*OA02 +0.147174*OA03 + 0.000513*OA04 + 0.004409*OA05 + 0.067286*OA06 0.042167*OA07 + 0.018112*OA08 + 0.006623*OA09 0.041377*OA10 + 0.346894*OA11 + 0.485700*OA12 0.485700*CON + 0.026743*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.138132*EKS; OE10=0.000221*OA01 + 0.001404*OA02 +0.132638*OA03 + 0.000586*OA04 + 0.002670*OA05 + 0.039501*OA06 0.089918*OA07 + 0.072040*OA08 + 0.023382*OA09 0.044518*OA10 + 0.427697*OA11 + 0.405897*OA12 0.405897*CON + 0.016055*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.148799*EKS; OE11=0.001270*OA01 + 0.002058*OA02 +0.123681*OA03 + 0.002445*OA04 + 0.006929*OA05 + 0.062869*OA06 0.168460*OA07 + 0.045308*OA08 + 0.133265*OA09 0.051301*OA10 + 0.621434*OA11 + 0.329023*OA12 0.329023*CON + 0.003272*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.046272*EKS;

122

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Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan OE12=0.000292*OA01 + 0.001462*OA02 +0.038316*OA03 + 0.000702*OA04 + 0.000319*OA05 + 0.006338*OA06 + 0.021276*OA07 + 0.066549*OA08 + 0.022442*OA09 + 0.036262*OA10 + 0.203386*OA11 + 0.320462*OA12 + 0.320462*CON + 0.016104*INV + 0.414298*GOV + 0.045750*EKS; LnOE01=Log(OE01); LnOE02=Log(OE02); LnOE03=Log(OE03); LnOE04=Log(OE04); LnOE05=Log(OE05); LnOE06=Log(OE06); LnOE07=Log(OE07); LnOE08=Log(OE08); LnOE09=Log(OE09); LnOE10=Log(OE10); LnOE11=Log(OE11); LnOE12=Log(OE12); run; proc simnlin data=ram_endo model=my_model out=ramal simulate seidel; id tahun; run; data baseline; set ramal; NA01 = exp(LnOA01); NA02 = exp(LnOA02); NA03 = exp(LnOA03); NA04 = exp(LnOA04); NA05 = exp(LnOA05); NA06 = exp(LnOA06); NA07 = exp(LnOA07); NA08 = exp(LnOA08); NA09 = exp(LnOA09); NA10 = exp(LnOA10); NA11 = exp(LnOA11); NA12 = exp(LnOA12); TOTSEK=NA01+NA02+NA03+NA04+NA05+NA06+NA07+NA08+NA09+NA10+NA11+NA12 ; SHRA01=NA01/TOTSEK; SHRA02=NA02/TOTSEK; SHRA03=NA03/TOTSEK; SHRA04=NA04/TOTSEK; SHRA05=NA05/TOTSEK; SHRA06=NA06/TOTSEK; SHRA07=NA07/TOTSEK; SHRA08=NA08/TOTSEK; SHRA09=NA09/TOTSEK; SHRA10=NA10/TOTSEK; SHRA11=NA11/TOTSEK; SHRA12=NA12/TOTSEK; GA01=(NA01-Lag(NA01))/Lag(NA01)*100; GA02=(NA02-Lag(NA02))/Lag(NA02)*100; 123


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan GA03=(NA03-Lag(NA03))/Lag(NA03)*100; GA04=(NA04-Lag(NA04))/Lag(NA04)*100; GA05=(NA05-Lag(NA05))/Lag(NA05)*100; GA06=(NA06-Lag(NA06))/Lag(NA06)*100; GA07=(NA07-Lag(NA07))/Lag(NA07)*100; GA08=(NA08-Lag(NA08))/Lag(NA08)*100; GA09=(NA09-Lag(NA09))/Lag(NA09)*100; GA10=(NA10-Lag(NA10))/Lag(NA10)*100; GA11=(NA11-Lag(NA11))/Lag(NA11)*100; GA12=(NA12-Lag(NA12))/Lag(NA12)*100; KA01=SHRA01*GA01; KA02=SHRA02*GA02; KA03=SHRA03*GA03; KA04=SHRA04*GA04; KA05=SHRA05*GA05; KA06=SHRA06*GA06; KA07=SHRA07*GA07; KA08=SHRA08*GA08; KA09=SHRA09*GA09; KA10=SHRA10*GA10; KA11=SHRA11*GA11; KA12=SHRA12*GA12; GRT = KA01+KA02+KA03+KA04+KA05+KA06+KA07+KA08+KA09+KA10+KA11+KA12; CON =exp(LnCON); INV =exp(LnINV); GOV =exp(LnGOV); EKS =exp(LnEKS); IMP =exp(LnIMP); XIMC =exp(LnXIMC); XPC =exp(LnXPC); XMC =exp(LnXMC); MBKC =exp(LnMBKC); MBBC =exp(LnMBBC); MBMC =exp(LnMBMC); MS =exp(LnMS); IRN =exp(LnIRN); DR =exp(LnDR); IHKG =exp(LnIHKG); PDBDEF=exp(LnPDBDEF); PNMIG =exp(LnPNMIG); PMIG =exp(LnPMIG); OA01 =exp(LnOA01); OA02 =exp(LnOA02); OA03 =exp(LnOA03); OA04 =exp(LnOA04); OA05 =exp(LnOA05); OA06 =exp(LnOA06); OA07 =exp(LnOA07); OA08=exp(LnOA08); OA09=exp(LnOA09); OA10=exp(LnOA10); OA11=exp(LnOA11); OA12=exp(LnOA12); TK01=exp(LnTK01); TK02=exp(LnTK02); TK03=exp(LnTK03); TK04=exp(LnTK04); 124


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan TK05=exp(LnTK05); TK06=exp(LnTK06); TK07=exp(LnTK07); TK08=exp(LnTK08); TK09=exp(LnTK09); TK10=exp(LnTK10); TK11=exp(LnTK11); TK12=exp(LnTK12); IC01=exp(LnIC01); IC02=exp(LnIC02); IC03=exp(LnIC03); IC04=exp(LnIC04); IC05=exp(LnIC05); IC06=exp(LnIC06); IC07=exp(LnIC07); IC08=exp(LnIC08); IC09=exp(LnIC09); IC10=exp(LnIC10); IC11=exp(LnIC11); IC12=exp(LnIC12); keep tahun GA01 GA02 GA03 GA04 KA01 KA02 KA03 KA04 CON INV GOV EKS IMP PDBDEF PNMIG PMIG OA01 OA02 OA03 OA04 TK01 TK02 TK03 TK04 IC01 IC02 IC03 IC04 run;

GA05 GA06 GA07 GA08 GA09 GA10 GA11 GA12 KA05 KA06 KA07 KA08 KA09 KA10 KA11 KA12 GRT XIMC XPC XMC MBKC MBBC MBMC MS IRN DR IHKG OA05 OA06 OA07 OA08 OA09 OA10 OA11 OA12 TK05 TK06 TK07 TK08 TK09 TK10 TK11 TK12 IC05 IC06 IC07 IC08 IC09 IC10 IC11 IC12;

ods rtf close; PROC EXPORT DATA=baseline OUTFILE='D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_Ene rgi\Baseline.xls' DBMS=EXCEL2002 REPLACE; SHEET='Baseline'; RUN; /* proses simulasi */ proc import datafile="D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_En ergi\data_olah_agregasi_final.xls" dbms=EXCEL2002 out=work.exo_sim replace; sheet='exo_sim'; getnames=yes; run; data impact; set exo_sim; if


TOTTK = TK01+TK02+TK03+TK04+TK05+TK06+TK07+TK08+TK09+TK10+TK11+TK12; 125


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan TOTIC = IC01+IC02+IC03+IC04+IC05+IC06+IC07+IC08+IC09+IC10+IC11+IC12; LnCON =Log(CON); LnINV =Log(INV); LnGOV =Log(GOV); LnEKS =Log(EKS); LnIMP =Log(IMP); PDB = exp(LnCON) + exp(LnINV) + exp(LnGOV) + exp(LnEKS) exp(LnIMP); LnXMC =Log(XMC); LnXIMC=Log(XIMC); LnXPC =Log(XPC); LnMBKC=Log(MBKC); LnMBBC=Log(MBBC); LnMBMC=Log(MBMC); LnPNMIG =Log(PNMIG); LnPMIG =Log(PMIG); TOTPG =exp(LnPnMIG) + exp(LnPMIG); LnMS =Log(MS); LnIRN =Log(IRN); LnDR =Log(DR); LnIHKG =Log(IHKG); LnXDEF =Log(XDEF); LnPDBDEF =Log(PDBDEF); LnOA01=Log(OA01); LnOA02=Log(OA02); LnOA03=Log(OA03); LnOA04=Log(OA04); LnOA05=Log(OA05); LnOA06=Log(OA06); LnOA07=Log(OA07); LnOA08=Log(OA08); LnOA09=Log(OA09); LnOA10=Log(OA10); LnOA11=Log(OA11); LnOA12=Log(OA12);

LnTK01=Log(TK01); LnTK02=Log(TK02); LnTK03=Log(TK03); LnTK04=Log(TK04); LnTK05=Log(TK05); LnTK06=Log(TK06); LnTK07=Log(TK07); LnTK08=Log(TK08); LnTK09=Log(TK09); LnTK10=Log(TK10); LnTK11=Log(TK11); LnTK12=Log(TK12);


YD = PDB - RTAX; LnYD = Log(YD); OE01=0.000000*OA01 + 0.000077*OA02 +0.429460*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.018853*OA06 0.066149*OA07 + 0.000148*OA08 + 0.000129*OA09 0.020817*OA10 + 0.601903*OA11 + 0.368940*OA12 0.368940*CON + 0.002601*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.035414*EKS; OE02=0.000002*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.244660*OA03 + 0.000000*OA04 + 0.043196*OA05 + 0.000000*OA06 0.000028*OA07 + 0.000184*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.000000*OA10 + 0.367401*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.614892*EKS; OE03=0.076265*OA01 + 0.000000*OA02 +0.177183*OA03 + 0.202750*OA04 + 0.030992*OA05 + 0.000019*OA06 0.000000*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 126

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Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan 0.000000*OA10 + 0.487208*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.003812*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.497469*EKS; OE04=0.000000*OA01 + 0.004771*OA02 +0.098966*OA03 + 0.000007*OA04 + 0.000000*OA05 + 0.853101*OA06 0.000263*OA07 + 0.000000*OA08 + 0.000000*OA09 0.018629*OA10 + 0.975742*OA11 + 0.000355*OA12 0.000355*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.024668*EKS; OE05=0.000298*OA01 + 0.000595*OA02 +0.202228*OA03 + 0.000201*OA04 + 0.001506*OA05 + 0.076828*OA06 0.039187*OA07 + 0.007836*OA08 + 0.004646*OA09 0.045924*OA10 + 0.404770*OA11 + 0.311333*OA12 0.311333*CON + 0.027766*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.246739*EKS; OE06=0.000120*OA01 + 0.004868*OA02 +0.100039*OA03 + 0.016572*OA04 + 0.077489*OA05 + 0.109803*OA06 0.046190*OA07 + 0.176334*OA08 + 0.003609*OA09 0.008073*OA10 + 0.557585*OA11 + 0.003438*OA12 0.003438*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.426913*EKS; OE07=0.000078*OA01 + 0.000306*OA02 +0.271476*OA03 + 0.000580*OA04 + 0.151912*OA05 + 0.002791*OA06 0.121636*OA07 + 0.045111*OA08 + 0.025666*OA09 0.064730*OA10 + 0.690049*OA11 + 0.309951*OA12 0.309951*CON + 0.000000*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE08=0.000062*OA01 + 0.002769*OA02 +0.004144*OA03 + 0.000086*OA04 + 0.001466*OA05 + 0.001019*OA06 0.016030*OA07 + 0.011026*OA08 + 0.017466*OA09 0.019826*OA10 + 0.085506*OA11 + 0.000000*OA12 0.000000*CON + 0.914494*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.000000*EKS; OE09=0.000232*OA01 + 0.001050*OA02 +0.147174*OA03 + 0.000513*OA04 + 0.004409*OA05 + 0.067286*OA06 0.042167*OA07 + 0.018112*OA08 + 0.006623*OA09 0.041377*OA10 + 0.346894*OA11 + 0.485700*OA12 0.485700*CON + 0.026743*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.138132*EKS; OE10=0.000221*OA01 + 0.001404*OA02 +0.132638*OA03 + 0.000586*OA04 + 0.002670*OA05 + 0.039501*OA06 0.089918*OA07 + 0.072040*OA08 + 0.023382*OA09 0.044518*OA10 + 0.427697*OA11 + 0.405897*OA12 0.405897*CON + 0.016055*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.148799*EKS; OE11=0.001270*OA01 + 0.002058*OA02 +0.123681*OA03 + 0.002445*OA04 + 0.006929*OA05 + 0.062869*OA06 0.168460*OA07 + 0.045308*OA08 + 0.133265*OA09 0.051301*OA10 + 0.621434*OA11 + 0.329023*OA12 0.329023*CON + 0.003272*INV + 0.000000*GOV + 0.046272*EKS; OE12=0.000292*OA01 + 0.001462*OA02 +0.038316*OA03 + 0.000702*OA04 + 0.000319*OA05 + 0.006338*OA06 0.021276*OA07 + 0.066549*OA08 + 0.022442*OA09 0.036262*OA10 + 0.203386*OA11 + 0.320462*OA12 0.320462*CON + 0.016104*INV + 0.414298*GOV + 0.045750*EKS;

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LnOE01=Log(OE01); 127


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan LnOE02=Log(OE02); LnOE03=Log(OE03); LnOE04=Log(OE04); LnOE05=Log(OE05); LnOE06=Log(OE06); LnOE07=Log(OE07); LnOE08=Log(OE08); LnOE09=Log(OE09); LnOE10=Log(OE10); LnOE11=Log(OE11); LnOE12=Log(OE12); run; proc simnlin data=impact model=my_model out=out_sim simulate seidel; id tahun; run; data simulasi; set out_sim; NA01 = exp(LnOA01); NA02 = exp(LnOA02); NA03 = exp(LnOA03); NA04 = exp(LnOA04); NA05 = exp(LnOA05); NA06 = exp(LnOA06); NA07 = exp(LnOA07); NA08 = exp(LnOA08); NA09 = exp(LnOA09); NA10 = exp(LnOA10); NA11 = exp(LnOA11); NA12 = exp(LnOA12); TOTSEK=NA01+NA02+NA03+NA04+NA05+NA06+NA07+NA08+NA09+NA10+NA11+NA12 ; SHRA01=NA01/TOTSEK; SHRA02=NA02/TOTSEK; SHRA03=NA03/TOTSEK; SHRA04=NA04/TOTSEK; SHRA05=NA05/TOTSEK; SHRA06=NA06/TOTSEK; SHRA07=NA07/TOTSEK; SHRA08=NA08/TOTSEK; SHRA09=NA09/TOTSEK; SHRA10=NA10/TOTSEK; SHRA11=NA11/TOTSEK; SHRA12=NA12/TOTSEK; GA01=(NA01-Lag(NA01))/Lag(NA01)*100; GA02=(NA02-Lag(NA02))/Lag(NA02)*100; GA03=(NA03-Lag(NA03))/Lag(NA03)*100; GA04=(NA04-Lag(NA04))/Lag(NA04)*100; GA05=(NA05-Lag(NA05))/Lag(NA05)*100; GA06=(NA06-Lag(NA06))/Lag(NA06)*100; GA07=(NA07-Lag(NA07))/Lag(NA07)*100; GA08=(NA08-Lag(NA08))/Lag(NA08)*100; GA09=(NA09-Lag(NA09))/Lag(NA09)*100; GA10=(NA10-Lag(NA10))/Lag(NA10)*100; 128


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan GA11=(NA11-Lag(NA11))/Lag(NA11)*100; GA12=(NA12-Lag(NA12))/Lag(NA12)*100; KA01=SHRA01*GA01; KA02=SHRA02*GA02; KA03=SHRA03*GA03; KA04=SHRA04*GA04; KA05=SHRA05*GA05; KA06=SHRA06*GA06; KA07=SHRA07*GA07; KA08=SHRA08*GA08; KA09=SHRA09*GA09; KA10=SHRA10*GA10; KA11=SHRA11*GA11; KA12=SHRA12*GA12; GRT = KA01+KA02+KA03+KA04+KA05+KA06+KA07+KA08+KA09+KA10+KA11+KA12; CON =exp(LnCON); INV =exp(LnINV); GOV =exp(LnGOV); EKS =exp(LnEKS); IMP =exp(LnIMP); XIMC=exp(LnXIMC); XPC =exp(LnXPC); XMC =exp(LnXMC); MBKC=exp(LnMBKC); MBBC=exp(LnMBBC); MBMC=exp(LnMBMC); MS =exp(LnMS); IRN =exp(LnIRN); DR =exp(LnDR); IHKG=exp(LnIHKG); PDBDEF=exp(LnPDBDEF); PNMIG=exp(LnPNMIG); PMIG=exp(LnPMIG); OA01=exp(LnOA01); OA02=exp(LnOA02); OA03=exp(LnOA03); OA04=exp(LnOA04); OA05=exp(LnOA05); OA06=exp(LnOA06); OA07=exp(LnOA07); OA08=exp(LnOA08); OA09=exp(LnOA09); OA10=exp(LnOA10); OA11=exp(LnOA11); OA12=exp(LnOA12); TK01=exp(LnTK01); TK02=exp(LnTK02); TK03=exp(LnTK03); TK04=exp(LnTK04); TK05=exp(LnTK05); TK06=exp(LnTK06); TK07=exp(LnTK07); TK08=exp(LnTK08); TK09=exp(LnTK09); TK10=exp(LnTK10); TK11=exp(LnTK11); TK12=exp(LnTK12); 129


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan IC01=exp(LnIC01); IC02=exp(LnIC02); IC03=exp(LnIC03); IC04=exp(LnIC04); IC05=exp(LnIC05); IC06=exp(LnIC06); IC07=exp(LnIC07); IC08=exp(LnIC08); IC09=exp(LnIC09); IC10=exp(LnIC10); IC11=exp(LnIC11); IC12=exp(LnIC12); keep tahun GA01 GA02 GA03 GA04 KA01 KA02 KA03 KA04 CON INV GOV EKS IMP PDBDEF PNMIG PMIG OA01 OA02 OA03 OA04 TK01 TK02 TK03 TK04 IC01 IC02 IC03 IC04 run;

GA05 GA06 GA07 GA08 GA09 GA10 GA11 GA12 KA05 KA06 KA07 KA08 KA09 KA10 KA11 KA12 GRT XIMC XPC XMC MBKC MBBC MBMC MS IRN DR IHKG OA05 OA06 OA07 OA08 OA09 OA10 OA11 OA12 TK05 TK06 TK07 TK08 TK09 TK10 TK11 TK12 IC05 IC06 IC07 IC08 IC09 IC10 IC11 IC12;

PROC EXPORT DATA=Simulasi OUTFILE='D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_Ene rgi\Simulasi.xls' DBMS=EXCEL2002 REPLACE; SHEET='Simulasi'; RUN;

130



Lampiran 6. Hasil Estimasi Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi The SAS System teknis S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

S9

S10

S11

S12

S1

0.066247 0.000079 0.000000 0.001050 0.111238 0.000000 0.000000 0.015999 0.044424 0.000183 0.000180 0.019168

S2

0.000000 0.079330 0.000001 0.000000 0.017767 0.000000 0.066877 0.000000 0.000005 0.000064 0.000000 0.000000

S3

0.000000 0.000000 0.076265 0.000000 0.019957 0.185748 0.074421 0.000007 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

S4

0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.004771 0.001889 0.000001 0.000000 0.053336 0.000013 0.000000 0.000000 0.001264

S5

0.083000 0.055397 0.002642 0.031198 0.202228 0.001637 0.032097 0.251711 0.101602 0.037272 0.024999 0.163253

S6

0.004929 0.006948 0.000131 0.031363 0.012299 0.016572 0.203106 0.044229 0.014724 0.103120 0.002388 0.003528

S7

0.000548 0.001766 0.000033 0.000752 0.012734 0.000221 0.151912 0.000429 0.014793 0.010065 0.006478 0.010793

S8

0.008845 0.017265 0.000167 0.044288 0.001265 0.000213 0.009539 0.001019 0.012686 0.016008 0.028686 0.021511

S9

0.022641 0.014580 0.000796 0.021231 0.056763 0.001610 0.036251 0.085025 0.042167 0.033227 0.013744 0.056730

S10 0.010754 0.021911 0.000412 0.015470 0.027885 0.001002 0.011967 0.027208 0.049014 0.072040 0.026452 0.033271 S11 0.013417 0.013174 0.002096 0.020037 0.022985 0.003696 0.027450 0.038278 0.081169 0.040050 0.133265 0.033890 S12 0.005161 0.018113 0.000730 0.021551 0.010779 0.001605 0.001916 0.005841 0.015518 0.089046 0.033971 0.036262

identity 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

131



IA 0.933753

-0.000079

0

-0.00105

-0.111238

-2.34E-7

-1.65E-7

-0.015999

0

0.9206697

-1.241E-6

0

-0.017767

-1.616E-7

-0.066877

0

0

0

0.9237353

0

-0.019957

-0.185748

-0.074421

-6.989E-6

-4.935E-7

0

0

0.995229

-0.001889

-1.013E-6

0

-0.053336

-0.083

-0.055397

-0.002642

-0.031198

0.7977723

-0.001637

-0.032097

-0.251711

-0.004929

-0.006948

-0.000131

-0.031363

-0.012299

0.9834282

-0.203106

-0.044229

-0.000548

-0.001766

-0.000033

-0.000752

-0.012734

-0.000221

0.848088

-0.000429

-0.008845

-0.017265

-0.000167

-0.044288

-0.001265

-0.000213

-0.009539

0.998981

-0.022641

-0.01458

-0.000796

-0.021231

-0.056763

-0.00161

-0.036251

-0.085025

-0.010754

-0.021911

-0.000412

-0.01547

-0.027885

-0.001002

-0.011967

-0.027208

-0.013417

-0.013174

-0.002096

-0.020037

-0.022985

-0.003696

-0.02745

-0.038278

-0.005161

-0.018113

-0.00073

-0.021551

-0.010779

-0.001605

-0.001916

-0.005841

IA -0.044424

-0.000183

-0.00018

-0.019168

-5.248E-6

-0.000064

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.000013

0

0

-0.001264

-0.101602

-0.037272

-0.024999

-0.163253

-0.014724

-0.10312

-0.002388

-0.003528

-0.014793

-0.010065

-0.006478

-0.010793

-0.012686

-0.016008

-0.028686

-0.021511

0.9578327

-0.033227

-0.013744

-0.05673

-0.049014

0.9279597

-0.026452

-0.033271

-0.081169

-0.04005

0.8667346

-0.03389

-0.015518

-0.089046

-0.033971

0.9637376

mult_out 1.0880867 0.0136738 0.0006041 0.0122591 0.1590528

0.00066 0.0117875 0.0654204

0.0027065 1.0883784 0.0000972 0.0015672 0.0266256 0.0001131 0.0872845 0.0074902 0.0052603 0.0054863 1.0827429 0.0096178 0.0355921 0.2046871 0.1471192

0.020702

0.0008785 0.0013579 0.0000275 1.0074936 0.0029009 0.0000403 0.0010028 0.0547995 0.1258319 0.0952489 0.0042942 0.0681323 1.2952061 0.0040648 0.0727608 0.3525146 0.0111145

0.014998 0.0003717 0.0391261 0.0288715 1.0172932 0.2501351 0.0612718

0.0038073

0.00512 0.0001766 0.0034487 0.0223901 0.0004694 1.1822528 0.0094031

0.0116643 0.0213376 0.0003353 0.0472973

0.007684 0.0005337 0.0158693 1.0095262

0.0361347 0.0277295 0.0013426 0.0340421 0.0864077 0.0024771

0.054844 0.1179016

0.0198991 0.0325853 0.0008269 0.0242353 0.0488368 0.0017106 0.0251383 0.0256608 0.0256183 0.0029713 0.0330911

0.051249

0.049815 0.0053929 0.0497352 0.0711677

0.01073 0.0261534 0.0010801 0.0277063 0.0237284 0.0022936 0.0104735 0.0210564

132



mult_out 0.0710438 0.0162543 0.0108599 0.0553199 0.0048394 0.0030889 0.0020822

0.006176

0.0117198 0.0277968 0.0048348

0.010825

0.0014137 0.0015331 0.0021027 0.0032746 0.1632258 0.0915907 0.0646205 0.2457353 0.0314862 0.1215226 0.0125093 0.0195451 0.0231095 0.0171483 0.0114566 0.0196804 0.0196328 0.0228488 0.0358436 0.0275135 1.0638541 0.0537868 0.0286285 0.0841423 0.0672089 1.0901657 0.0397202 0.0531202 0.111197 0.0644354 1.1640552 0.0608621 0.0298141 0.1054652

0.046295 1.0495156

sig_b 1.3417748 1.3576872 1.0948705 1.3080169 1.7871111 1.2397358 1.908403 1.8425024

sig_b 1.5985451 1.6156366 1.4230084 1.6357101

gabung 1.0880867 0.0027065 0.0052603 0.0008785 0.1258319 0.0111145 0.0038073 0.0116643 0.0361347 0.0198991 0.0256608 0.01073 1.3417748

0.0136738

0.0006041

0.0122591

0.1590528

0.00066

0.0117875

0.0654204

0.0710438

0.0162543

0.0108599

0.0553199

1.0883784

0.0000972

0.0015672

0.0266256

0.0001131

0.0872845

0.0074902

0.0048394

0.0030889

0.0020822

0.006176

0.0054863

1.0827429

0.0096178

0.0355921

0.2046871

0.1471192

0.020702

0.0117198

0.0277968

0.0048348

0.010825

0.0013579

0.0000275

1.0074936

0.0029009

0.0000403

0.0010028

0.0547995

0.0014137

0.0015331

0.0021027

0.0032746

133



0.0952489

0.0042942

0.0681323

1.2952061

0.0040648

0.0727608

0.3525146

0.1632258

0.0915907

0.0646205

0.2457353

0.014998

0.0003717

0.0391261

0.0288715

1.0172932

0.2501351

0.0612718

0.0314862

0.1215226

0.0125093

0.0195451

0.00512

0.0001766

0.0034487

0.0223901

0.0004694

1.1822528

0.0094031

0.0231095

0.0171483

0.0114566

0.0196804

0.0213376

0.0003353

0.0472973

0.007684

0.0005337

0.0158693

1.0095262

0.0196328

0.0228488

0.0358436

0.0275135

0.0277295

0.0013426

0.0340421

0.0864077

0.0024771

0.054844

0.1179016

1.0638541

0.0537868

0.0286285

0.0841423

0.0325853

0.0008269

0.0242353

0.0488368

0.0017106

0.0251383

0.051249

0.0672089

1.0901657

0.0397202

0.0531202

0.0256183

0.0029713

0.0330911

0.049815

0.0053929

0.0497352

0.0711677

0.111197

0.0644354

1.1640552

0.0608621

0.0261534

0.0010801

0.0277063

0.0237284

0.0022936

0.0104735

0.0210564

0.0298141

0.1054652

0.046295

1.0495156

1.3576872

1.0948705

1.3080169

1.7871111

1.2397358

1.908403

1.8425024

1.5985451

1.6156366

1.4230084

1.6357101

sig_k 1.5050223 1.2304494 1.5663842 1.076825 2.5832259 1.608245 1.2984628 1.2200864 1.591291 1.4546961 1.6640021 1.3543116 18.153002

Sektor S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

S1

1.0880867 0.0136738 0.0006041 0.0122591 0.1590528

S2

0.0027065 1.0883784 0.0000972 0.0015672 0.0266256 0.0001131 0.0872845 0.0074902

S3

0.0052603 0.0054863 1.0827429 0.0096178 0.0355921 0.2046871 0.1471192

S4

0.0008785 0.0013579 0.0000275 1.0074936 0.0029009 0.0000403 0.0010028 0.0547995

S5

0.1258319 0.0952489 0.0042942 0.0681323 1.2952061 0.0040648 0.0727608 0.3525146

S6

0.0111145

0.014998 0.0003717 0.0391261 0.0288715 1.0172932 0.2501351 0.0612718

S7

0.0038073

0.00512 0.0001766 0.0034487 0.0223901 0.0004694 1.1822528 0.0094031

S8

0.0116643 0.0213376 0.0003353 0.0472973

S9

0.0361347 0.0277295 0.0013426 0.0340421 0.0864077 0.0024771

0.00066 0.0117875 0.0654204

0.007684 0.0005337 0.0158693 1.0095262 0.054844 0.1179016

S10 0.0198991 0.0325853 0.0008269 0.0242353 0.0488368 0.0017106 0.0251383 S11 0.0256608 0.0256183 0.0029713 0.0330911 134

0.020702

0.051249

0.049815 0.0053929 0.0497352 0.0711677



Sektor S1 S12

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

0.01073 0.0261534 0.0010801 0.0277063 0.0237284 0.0022936 0.0104735 0.0210564 1.3417748 1.3576872 1.0948705 1.3080169 1.7871111 1.2397358

1.908403 1.8425024

Sektor S9

S10

S11

S12

S1

0.0710438 0.0162543 0.0108599 0.0553199 1.5050223

S2

0.0048394 0.0030889 0.0020822

0.006176 1.2304494

S3

0.0117198 0.0277968 0.0048348

0.010825 1.5663842

S4

0.0014137 0.0015331 0.0021027 0.0032746

S5

0.1632258 0.0915907 0.0646205 0.2457353 2.5832259

S6

0.0314862 0.1215226 0.0125093 0.0195451

S7

0.0231095 0.0171483 0.0114566 0.0196804 1.2984628

S8

0.0196328 0.0228488 0.0358436 0.0275135 1.2200864

S9

1.0638541 0.0537868 0.0286285 0.0841423

1.076825 1.608245

1.591291

S10 0.0672089 1.0901657 0.0397202 0.0531202 1.4546961 S11

0.111197 0.0644354 1.1640552 0.0608621 1.6640021

S12 0.0298141 0.1054652

0.046295 1.0495156 1.3543116

1.5985451 1.6156366 1.4230084 1.6357101 18.153002

135



Lampiran 6. Hasil Estimasi Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi The SAS System The MODEL Procedure Model Summary Model Variables

55

Endogenous

55

Parameters

203

Equations

55

Number of Statements

82

Program Lag Length

1

The 54 Equations to Estimate LnCON = F(a10(1), a11, a12, a13, a14) LnINV = F(a20(1), a21, a22, a23(D1998), a24) LnGOV = F(a31, a32, a33, a34(D1998), a35, a36) LnEKS = F(a40(1), a41, a42, a43) LnIMP = F(a50(1), a51, a52, a53) LnXIMC = F(a60(1), a61, a62(D1998), a63, a64) LnXPC = F(a70(1), a71, a72, a73) LnXMC = F(a80(1), a81, a82, a83, a84) LnMBKC = F(a90(1), a91, a92, a93) LnMBBC = F(b10(1), b11, b12, b13) LnMBMC = F(b20(1), b21, b22, b23) LnMS = F(b30(1), b31, b32, b33(LnDR), b34) LnIRN = F(b40(1), b41, b42, b43, b44) LnDR = F(b50(1), b51, b52) LnIHKG = F(b60(1), b61, b62, b63, b64) LnPDBDEF = F(b70(1), b71, b72, b73) LnPNMIG = F(b80(1), b81, b83, b84) LnPMIG = F(b90(1), b91, b92(ERUS), b93, b94) LnOA01 = F(c010(1), c011, c012, c013, c014(D1998), c015) LnOA02 = F(c020(1), c021, c022, c023) LnOA03 = F(c030(1), c031, c032, c033(D1998), c034) LnOA04 = F(c040(1), c041, c043, c045) LnOA05 = F(c050(1), c051, c052, c053) LnOA06 = F(c060(1), c062, c063, c065) 136



The 54 Equations to Estimate LnOA07 = F(c070(1), c071, c073, c074) LnOA08 = F(c081, c084) LnOA09 = F(c090(1), c091, c093(D1998), c094) LnOA10 = F(c100(1), c101, c102, c103, c104) LnOA11 = F(c111, c112, c113(D1998), c115) LnOA12 = F(c121, c122, c123(D1998), c124) LnTK01 = F(d010(1), d011, d012) LnTK02 = F(d020(1), d021, d022) LnTK03 = F(d030(1), d031, d032) LnTK04 = F(d040(1), d041, d042) LnTK05 = F(d050(1), d051, d052) LnTK06 = F(d060(1), d061, d062) LnTK07 = F(d070(1), d071, d072) LnTK08 = F(d080(1), d081, d082) LnTK09 = F(d090(1), d091, d092) LnTK10 = F(d100(1), d101, d102) LnTK11 = F(d110(1), d111, d112) LnTK12 = F(d120(1), d121, d122) LnIC01 = F(e010(1), e011, e012) LnIC02 = F(e020(1), e021, e022) LnIC03 = F(e030(1), e031, e032) LnIC04 = F(e040(1), e041, e042) LnIC05 = F(e050(1), e051, e052) LnIC06 = F(e060(1), e061, e062) LnIC07 = F(e070(1), e071, e072) LnIC08 = F(e080(1), e081, e082) LnIC09 = F(e090(1), e091, e092) LnIC10 = F(e100(1), e101, e102) LnIC11 = F(e110(1), e111, e112) LnIC12 = F(e120(1), e121, e122) Instruments 1 YD SEGI SNEGI POP D1998 TOTPG PNS GGWL ERUS IHKUSA PDBUSA IHPBEX INFL PDBDEF POIL RTAX PDB

The estimation lag length 1 NOTE: At 2SLS Iteration 1 CONVERGE=0.001 Criteria Met. 137



The SAS System The MODEL Procedure 2SLS Estimation Summary Data Set Options DATA= BAPPENAS

Minimization Summary Parameters Estimated

203

Method

Gauss

Iterations

1

Final Convergence Criteria R

2.015E-9

PPC(c100)

5.126E-8

RPC(c070)

5946256

Object

0.999872

Trace(S)

1.662134

Objective Value

0.70707

Observations Processed Read

33

Solved

32

First

2

Last

33

Lagged

138

1



The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Nonlinear 2SLS Summary of Residual Errors Equation

DF DF Model Error

SSE

Adj Durbin MSE Root MSE R-Square R-Sq Watson

LnCON

5

27

0.0284

0.00105

0.0324

0.9957 0.9951

1.2804

LnINV

5

27

0.1583

0.00586

0.0766

0.9634 0.9580

1.8795

LnGOV

6

26

0.0455

0.00175

0.0418

0.9904 0.9886

1.6558

LnEKS

4

28

0.4064

0.0145

0.1205

0.9639 0.9601

2.5479

LnIMP

4

28

0.6381

0.0228

0.1510

0.9311 0.9237

1.1886

LnXIMC

5

27

0.6049

0.0224

0.1497

0.9887 0.9871

2.0362

LnXPC

4

28

1.5097

0.0539

0.2322

0.9002 0.8895

1.8083

LnXMC

5

27

0.2371

0.00878

0.0937

0.9222 0.9107

2.2699

LnMBKC

4

28

1.4741

0.0526

0.2295

0.9228 0.9145

2.0665

LnMBBC

4

28

0.6051

0.0216

0.1470

0.9380 0.9314

1.3118

LnMBMC

4

28

1.6541

0.0591

0.2431

0.7787 0.7550

1.7416

LnMS

5

27

0.0987

0.00366

0.0605

0.9990 0.9989

2.5318

LnIRN

5

27

0.1321

0.00489

0.0699

0.8704 0.8512

2.0834

LnDR

3

29

0.6456

0.0223

0.1492

0.8923 0.8848

0.8753

LnIHKG

5

27

0.0197 0.000731

0.0270

0.9992 0.9991

1.6000

LnPDBDEF

4

28

0.1452

0.00519

0.0720

0.9960 0.9956

1.4395

LnPNMIG

4

28

0.4956

0.0177

0.1330

0.9934 0.9927

2.2889

LnPMIG

5

27

3.7435

0.1386

0.3724

0.8768 0.8586

2.3414

LnOA01

6

26

0.0363

0.00140

0.0374

0.9923 0.9909

1.6673

LnOA02

4

28

0.1380

0.00493

0.0702

0.9417 0.9355

1.3154

LnOA03

5

27

0.5532

0.0205

0.1431

0.9868 0.9848

1.3987

LnOA04

4

28

0.9919

0.0354

0.1882

0.9565 0.9519

1.7040

LnOA05

4

28

0.2080

0.00743

0.0862

0.9845 0.9828

1.6678

LnOA06

4

28

0.1454

0.00519

0.0721

0.9844 0.9828

1.7215

LnOA07

4

28

5.4679

0.1953

0.4419

0.7841 0.7609

2.6732

LnOA08

2

30 11.1949

0.3732

0.6109

0.5272 0.5114

2.8919

LnOA09

4

28

0.0458

0.00163

0.0404

0.9974 0.9971

0.9271

LnOA10

5

27

0.0850

0.00315

0.0561

0.9956 0.9950

1.5020

LnOA11

4

28

0.1676

0.00599

0.0774

0.9913 0.9904

1.3265

139



Nonlinear 2SLS Summary of Residual Errors Equation

DF DF Model Error

SSE

Adj Durbin MSE Root MSE R-Square R-Sq Watson

LnOA12

4

28

0.0617

0.00220

0.0470

0.9897 0.9886

0.9649

LnTK01

3

29

0.0815

0.00281

0.0530

0.7697 0.7538

2.4879

LnTK02

3

29

0.4988

0.0172

0.1312

0.8639 0.8545

2.6257

LnTK03

3

29

0.5335

0.0184

0.1356

0.9685 0.9663

1.8748

LnTK04

3

29

1.6698

0.0576

0.2400

0.8036 0.7901

1.6698

LnTK05

3

29

0.1500

0.00517

0.0719

0.9589 0.9561

2.3662

LnTK06

3

29

0.1491

0.00514

0.0717

0.9902 0.9895

1.9406

LnTK07

3

29

0.6306

0.0217

0.1475

0.8863 0.8785

3.0457

LnTK08

3

29

0.1927

0.00665

0.0815

0.9709 0.9689

1.9594

LnTK09

3

29

0.0915

0.00315

0.0562

0.9692 0.9671

2.4468

LnTK10

3

29

0.0781

0.00269

0.0519

0.9879 0.9871

2.3994

LnTK11

3

29

0.3456

0.0119

0.1092

0.9773 0.9757

1.9214

LnTK12

3

29

0.2892

0.00997

0.0999

0.8012 0.7875

2.1937

LnIC01

3

29

1.1954

0.0412

0.2030

0.8142 0.8014

2.2545

LnIC02

3

29

1.0682

0.0368

0.1919

0.5884 0.5601

1.9172

LnIC03

3

29

1.7511

0.0604

0.2457

0.9599 0.9571

1.7362

LnIC04

3

29

2.7112

0.0935

0.3058

0.9164 0.9107

1.2217

LnIC05

3

29

0.6726

0.0232

0.1523

0.9419 0.9378

1.3582

LnIC06

3

29

0.2390

0.00824

0.0908

0.9933 0.9928

1.1779

LnIC07

3

29

1.4204

0.0490

0.2213

0.8721 0.8633

1.9045

LnIC08

3

29

0.3585

0.0124

0.1112

0.9696 0.9675

1.0472

LnIC09

3

29

0.3567

0.0123

0.1109

0.9675 0.9653

1.6802

LnIC10

3

29

0.4501

0.0155

0.1246

0.9721 0.9702

1.7897

LnIC11

3

29

0.6425

0.0222

0.1488

0.9679 0.9657

1.7471

LnIC12

3

29

0.3267

0.0113

0.1061

0.6766 0.6543

1.5140

140



Nonlinear 2SLS Parameter Estimates Approx Approx Parameter Estimate Std Err t Value Pr > |t|

141

a10

-0.98316

0.8311

-1.18

0.2471

a11

0.0127

0.0471

0.27

0.7895

a12

0.256208

0.1252

2.05

0.0505

a13

-0.02218

0.0184

-1.21

0.2373

a14

0.815214

0.0841

9.70

<.0001

a20

2.490748

0.9575

2.60

0.0149

a21

-0.2292

0.1355

-1.69

0.1022

a22

-0.02435

0.0415

-0.59

0.5620

a23

-0.45158

0.1167

-3.87

0.0006

a24

0.864587

0.0527

16.40

<.0001

a31

0.01191

0.0249

0.48

0.6369

a32

0.008433

0.0506

0.17

0.8689

a33

0.036995

0.0557

0.66

0.5125

a34

-0.2242

0.0433

-5.17

<.0001

a35

0.010775

0.0383

0.28

0.7806

a36

0.926448

0.1029

9.00

<.0001

a40

0.099203

0.7726

0.13

0.8988

a41

0.071765

0.0699

1.03

0.3135

a42

0.005906

0.0553

0.11

0.9157

a43

0.985966

0.0884

11.15

<.0001

a50

-3.44888

2.7370

-1.26

0.2180

a51

0.120215

0.1666

0.72

0.4766

a52

-0.17053

0.1569

-1.09

0.2864

a53

1.23048

0.1872

6.57

<.0001

a60

1.120003

0.2359

4.75

<.0001

a61

0.088698

0.0897

0.99

0.3317

a62

0.143512

0.1630

0.88

0.3862

a63

-0.04723

0.0636

-0.74

0.4643

a64

0.940244

0.0419

22.43

<.0001

a70

-0.28402

0.9512

-0.30

0.7675

a71

0.325511

0.2325

1.40

0.1726

a72

0.245081

0.1335

1.84

0.0771




142

a73

0.744284

0.1491

4.99

<.0001

a80

3.9348

1.8193

2.16

0.0396

a81

0.058927

0.0547

1.08

0.2911

a82

-0.30645

0.1180

-2.60

0.0150

a83

0.350014

0.1266

2.77

0.0101

a84

0.764005

0.1208

6.33

<.0001

a90

-4.5758

3.7978

-1.20

0.2383

a91

0.490366

0.3005

1.63

0.1139

a92

-0.01283

0.1837

-0.07

0.9448

a93

0.780298

0.1272

6.13

<.0001

b10

-2.35316

2.3398

-1.01

0.3232

b11

0.661827

0.2772

2.39

0.0239

b12

-0.01451

0.1044

-0.14

0.8905

b13

0.456835

0.2159

2.12

0.0434

b20

0.385616

3.6121

0.11

0.9157

b21

0.354652

0.2812

1.26

0.2176

b22

-0.27203

0.4522

-0.60

0.5523

b23

0.589037

0.1972

2.99

0.0058

b30

-9.01169

2.4804

-3.63

0.0012

b31

0.298934

0.1322

2.26

0.0321

b32

0.813188

0.2259

3.60

0.0013

b33

0.200679

0.0451

4.44

0.0001

b34

0.676699

0.1049

6.45

<.0001

b40

0.574901

0.3815

1.51

0.1434

b41

0.29072

0.1943

1.50

0.1462

b42

-0.02102

0.0181

-1.16

0.2547

b43

0.117923

0.0283

4.16

0.0003

b44

0.74488

0.1001

7.44

<.0001

b50

-4.22708

0.7562

-5.59

<.0001

b51

0.02851

0.0436

0.65

0.5184

b52

2.392847

0.2190

10.93

<.0001

b60

-0.66429

0.1166

-5.70

<.0001




143

b61

0.023137

0.0201

1.15

0.2605

b62

0.07844

0.0133

5.89

<.0001

b63

0.822307

0.0430

19.14

<.0001

b64

0.138457

0.0261

5.30

<.0001

b70

-0.70613

0.2715

-2.60

0.0147

b71

0.15114

0.0860

1.76

0.0899

b72

0.080573

0.2088

0.39

0.7025

b73

0.809539

0.1102

7.34

<.0001

b80

1.500929

0.6496

2.31

0.0284

b81

0.184468

0.0755

2.44

0.0211

b83

0.406779

0.2348

1.73

0.0943

b84

0.604903

0.1745

3.47

0.0017

b90

8.525971

6.8049

1.25

0.2210

b91

-0.22167

0.6435

-0.34

0.7332

b92

0.000132 0.000046

2.88

0.0077

b93

0.112098

0.2925

0.38

0.7046

b94

0.445071

0.1851

2.40

0.0233

c010

-0.57115

1.1234

-0.51

0.6154

c011

0.160065

0.1013

1.58

0.1263

c012

0.049489

0.1332

0.37

0.7133

c013

-0.21986

0.0959

-2.29

0.0303

c014

0.103969

0.0708

1.47

0.1538

c015

0.82747

0.1024

8.08

<.0001

c020

-0.1593

1.0452

-0.15

0.8800

c021

0.053177

0.1069

0.50

0.6227

c022

0.003064

0.0409

0.07

0.9408

c023

0.986702

0.0981

10.06

<.0001

c030

0.173225

3.2380

0.05

0.9577

c031

0.286377

0.2219

1.29

0.2078

c032

0.070294

0.2827

0.25

0.8055

c033

0.377026

0.1494

2.52

0.0178

c034

0.769912

0.1023

7.53

<.0001




144

c040

1.497816

0.5788

2.59

0.0151

c041

0.569095

0.1414

4.03

0.0004

c043

0.029958

0.0658

0.46

0.6525

c045

0.615394

0.1194

5.15

<.0001

c050

-177.387

155.7

-1.14

0.2642

c051

0.176435

0.2355

0.75

0.4600

c052

23.62484

20.7357

1.14

0.2642

c053

0.782065

0.1552

5.04

<.0001

c060

-1.15132

1.9168

-0.60

0.5529

c062

0.247112

0.1358

1.82

0.0796

c063

0.024441

0.0171

1.43

0.1633

c065

0.91551

0.0724

12.65

<.0001

c070

-600.572

477.3

-1.26

0.2187

c071

0.207092

0.8624

0.24

0.8120

c073

79.42024

63.3005

1.25

0.2200

c074

0.519702

0.3469

1.50

0.1453

c081

0.154853

0.2612

0.59

0.5578

c084

0.928621

0.1313

7.07

<.0001

c090

0.192273

0.1752

1.10

0.2818

c091

0.031613

0.0618

0.51

0.6127

c093

-0.28028

0.0433

-6.48

<.0001

c094

0.980365

0.0154

63.69

<.0001

c100

-599.781

191.0

-3.14

0.0041

c101

0.064514

0.1608

0.40

0.6914

c102

-0.14432

0.0490

-2.95

0.0066

c103

79.51949

25.3268

3.14

0.0041

c104

0.655703

0.1488

4.41

0.0001

c111

0.070568

0.0319

2.22

0.0350

c112

0.01672

0.0561

0.30

0.7678

c113

-0.52998

0.0853

-6.21

<.0001

c115

0.914855

0.0621

14.72

<.0001

c121

0.025681

0.1008

0.25

0.8008




145

c122

0.090371

0.0583

1.55

0.1321

c123

-0.18175

0.0512

-3.55

0.0014

c124

0.903621

0.0846

10.69

<.0001

d010

1.180286

1.1569

1.02

0.3161

d011

0.023666

0.0361

0.66

0.5170

d012

0.862271

0.1366

6.31

<.0001

d020

-0.24988

1.3296

-0.19

0.8522

d021

0.095225

0.1643

0.58

0.5667

d022

0.864379

0.1287

6.72

<.0001

d030

-0.40965

0.3927

-1.04

0.3055

d031

0.166809

0.0977

1.71

0.0983

d032

0.713787

0.1503

4.75

<.0001

d040

-0.85991

0.5672

-1.52

0.1404

d041

0.342393

0.1094

3.13

0.0040

d042

0.346864

0.1698

2.04

0.0502

d050

0.392344

0.4305

0.91

0.3696

d051

0.130052

0.0669

1.95

0.0615

d052

0.766455

0.1323

5.79

<.0001

d060

-0.46611

0.9298

-0.50

0.6199

d061

0.152108

0.1191

1.28

0.2118

d062

0.782119

0.0825

9.48

<.0001

d070

0.437568

0.3130

1.40

0.1727

d071

0.068368

0.0822

0.83

0.4122

d072

0.788924

0.1574

5.01

<.0001

d080

0.619709

0.2383

2.60

0.0145

d081

-0.01857

0.0403

-0.46

0.6482

d082

0.955275

0.0649

14.73

<.0001

d090

0.710907

0.4800

1.48

0.1494

d091

0.002823

0.0469

0.06

0.9524

d092

0.924574

0.1065

8.69

<.0001

d100

0.37512

0.2237

1.68

0.1044

d101

0.110353

0.0706

1.56

0.1289




146

d102

0.801488

0.1210

6.62

<.0001

d110

-0.93346

0.3626

-2.57

0.0154

d111

0.159243

0.0658

2.42

0.0220

d112

0.864505

0.0777

11.13

<.0001

d120

-0.12116

0.8893

-0.14

0.8926

d121

0.019441

0.0601

0.32

0.7487

d122

0.991428

0.1359

7.29

<.0001

e010

-9.75455

4.9783

-1.96

0.0597

e011

1.079284

0.5689

1.90

0.0678

e012

0.837278

0.1469

5.70

<.0001

e020

1.572316

1.0977

1.43

0.1627

e021

0.055616

0.1098

0.51

0.6164

e022

0.781326

0.1298

6.02

<.0001

e030

0.49421

0.2655

1.86

0.0729

e031

-0.01227

0.1546

-0.08

0.9373

e032

0.951916

0.0917

10.38

<.0001

e040

0.038751

0.3942

0.10

0.9224

e041

0.757746

0.1929

3.93

0.0005

e042

0.596425

0.0891

6.69

<.0001

e050

-0.24871

0.8879

-0.28

0.7814

e051

0.218665

0.2101

1.04

0.3065

e052

0.84648

0.1152

7.35

<.0001

e060

0.658894

0.2972

2.22

0.0346

e061

1.469382

0.3375

4.35

0.0002

e062

0.931444

0.0278

33.53

<.0001

e070

0.629437

0.5006

1.26

0.2186

e071

0.211659

0.1823

1.16

0.2550

e072

0.7746

0.1221

6.34

<.0001

e080

0.102802

0.3632

0.28

0.7791

e081

0.698487

0.1932

3.62

0.0011

e082

0.444191

0.1373

3.24

0.0030

e090

0.117456

1.2320

0.10

0.9247



Nonlinear 2SLS Parameter Estimates Approx Approx Parameter Estimate Std Err t Value Pr > |t| e091

0.125056

0.2589

0.48

0.6327

e092

0.879204

0.1279

6.88

<.0001

e100

0.341487

0.5254

0.65

0.5208

e101

0.082485

0.2367

0.35

0.7300

e102

0.911335

0.1453

6.27

<.0001

e110

0.755692

0.3471

2.18

0.0377

e111

0.040616

0.1104

0.37

0.7157

e112

0.906314

0.0908

9.98

<.0001

e120

2.029565

1.3276

1.53

0.1372

e121

-0.01984

0.0924

-0.21

0.8315

e122

0.830568

0.1092

7.61

<.0001

Number of Observations Used

Statistics for System

32 Objective

Missing

0.7071

0 Objective*N 22.6262

Heteroscedasticity Test

147

Equation

Test

Statistic DF Pr > ChiSq Variables

LnCON

White's Test

27.41

14

0.0170 Cross of all vars

LnINV

White's Test

7.46

10


LnGOV

White's Test

26.72

21


LnEKS

White's Test

3.60

9


LnIMP

White's Test

23.06

9


LnXIMC

White's Test

16.72

10


LnXPC

White's Test

23.73

9


LnXMC

White's Test

18.20

14


LnMBKC

White's Test

19.72

9


LnMBBC

White's Test

21.65

9


LnMBMC

White's Test

14.86

9


LnMS

White's Test

16.47

14


LnIRN

White's Test

12.74

14




Heteroscedasticity Test

148

Equation

Test


LnDR

White's Test

6.43

5


LnIHKG

White's Test

17.51

14


LnPDBDEF White's Test

28.91

9


LnPNMIG

White's Test

8.38

9


LnPMIG

White's Test

15.98

14


LnOA01

White's Test

11.95

15


LnOA02

White's Test

9.20

9


LnOA03

White's Test

19.08

10


LnOA04

White's Test

25.98

9


LnOA05

White's Test

5.17

8


LnOA06

White's Test

21.25

9


LnOA07

White's Test

12.71

8


LnOA08

White's Test

13.21

5


LnOA09

White's Test

8.88

6


LnOA10

White's Test

9.75

12


LnOA11

White's Test

27.78

10


LnOA12

White's Test

17.84

10


LnTK01

White's Test

7.96

5


LnTK02

White's Test

9.51

5


LnTK03

White's Test

4.01

5


LnTK04

White's Test

18.59

5


LnTK05

White's Test

3.04

5


LnTK06

White's Test

9.08

5


LnTK07

White's Test

12.02

5


LnTK08

White's Test

5.11

5


LnTK09

White's Test

3.26

5


LnTK10

White's Test

5.63

5


LnTK11

White's Test

7.04

5


LnTK12

White's Test

2.66

5


LnIC01

White's Test

7.20

5


LnIC02

White's Test

13.00

5


LnIC03

White's Test

6.21

5


LnIC04

White's Test

12.29

5




Heteroscedasticity Test Equation

Test


LnIC05

White's Test

13.01

5


LnIC06

White's Test

9.03

5


LnIC07

White's Test

12.88

5


LnIC08

White's Test

17.46

5


LnIC09

White's Test

8.59

5


LnIC10

White's Test

9.56

5


LnIC11

White's Test

5.48

5


LnIC12

White's Test

22.47

5


Godfrey's Serial Correlation Test

149

Equation

Alternative

LM

Pr > LM

LnCON

1

2.49

0.1143

LnINV

1

0.12

0.7336

LnGOV

1

1.15

0.2825

LnEKS

1

2.59

0.1073

LnIMP

1

5.72

0.0168

LnXIMC

1

0.27

0.6026

LnXPC

1

0.84

0.3591

LnXMC

1

2.46

0.1167

LnMBKC

1

1.18

0.2781

LnMBBC

1

6.88

0.0087

LnMBMC

1

2.62

0.1057

LnMS

1

2.95

0.0859

LnIRN

1

0.57

0.4513

LnDR

1

10.47

0.0012

LnIHKG

1

1.45

0.2282

LnPDBDEF 1

2.53

0.1118

LnPNMIG

1

1.30

0.2545

LnPMIG

1

2.61

0.1064

LnOA01

1

2.74

0.0978

LnOA02

1

5.63

0.0177

LnOA03

1

4.00

0.0454

LnOA04

1

1.86

0.1721



Godfrey's Serial Correlation Test

150

Equation

Alternative

LM

Pr > LM

LnOA05

1

2.27

0.1322

LnOA06

1

2.22

0.1362

LnOA07

1

4.60

0.0320

LnOA08

1

6.49

0.0109

LnOA09

1

9.88

0.0017

LnOA10

1

2.59

0.1079

LnOA11

1

5.61

0.0179

LnOA12

1

13.06

0.0003

LnTK01

1

2.03

0.1546

LnTK02

1

4.04

0.0444

LnTK03

1

0.63

0.4259

LnTK04

1

11.25

0.0008

LnTK05

1

1.33

0.2480

LnTK06

1

1.03

0.3106

LnTK07

1

9.06

0.0026

LnTK08

1

0.99

0.3200

LnTK09

1

2.22

0.1363

LnTK10

1

3.33

0.0681

LnTK11

1

0.19

0.6594

LnTK12

1

0.75

0.3880

LnIC01

1

0.99

0.3202

LnIC02

1

1.72

0.1900

LnIC03

1

1.73

0.1885

LnIC04

1

6.32

0.0120

LnIC05

1

6.24

0.0125

LnIC06

1

4.75

0.0294

LnIC07

1

1.02

0.3116

LnIC08

1

12.73

0.0004

LnIC09

1

3.81

0.0510

LnIC10

1

3.59

0.0583

LnIC11

1

2.03

0.1541

LnIC12

1

3.27

0.0704



Durbin-Watson Statistics Equation

151

Order DW Pr < DW Pr > DW

LnCON

1 1.28

0.0021

0.9979

LnINV

1 1.88

0.2702

0.7298

LnGOV

1 1.66

0.0587

0.9413

LnEKS

1 2.55

0.8811

0.1189

LnIMP

1 1.19

0.0014

0.9986

LnXIMC

1 2.04

0.3502

0.6498

LnXPC

1 1.81

0.1627

0.8373

LnXMC

1 2.27

0.5943

0.4057

LnMBKC

1 2.07

0.3656

0.6344

LnMBBC

1 1.31

0.0058

0.9942

LnMBMC

1 1.74

0.1133

0.8867

LnMS

1 2.53

0.8236

0.1764

LnIRN

1 2.08

0.4485

0.5515

LnDR

1 0.88

<.0001

0.9999

LnIHKG

1 1.60

0.0509

0.9491

LnPDBDEF

1 1.44

0.0148

0.9852

LnPNMIG

1 2.29

0.6429

0.3571

LnPMIG

1 2.34

0.7190

0.2810

LnOA01

1 1.67

0.0745

0.9255

LnOA02

1 1.32

0.0052

0.9948

LnOA03

1 1.40

0.0115

0.9885

LnOA04

1 1.70

0.1002

0.8998

LnOA05

1 1.67

.

.

LnOA06

1 1.72

0.0872

0.9128

LnOA07

1 2.67

.

.

LnOA08

1 2.89

0.9948

0.0052

LnOA09

1 0.93

<.0001

0.9999

LnOA10

1 1.50

.

.

LnOA11

1 1.33

0.0091

0.9909

LnOA12

1 0.96

0.0002

0.9998

LnTK01

1 2.49

0.8593

0.1407

LnTK02

1 2.63

0.9344

0.0656

LnTK03

1 1.87

0.2455

0.7545



Durbin-Watson Statistics Equation

152

Order DW Pr < DW Pr > DW

LnTK04

1 1.67

0.1210

0.8790

LnTK05

1 2.37

0.7655

0.2345

LnTK06

1 1.94

0.3023

0.6977

LnTK07

1 3.05

0.9988

0.0012

LnTK08

1 1.96

0.3574

0.6426

LnTK09

1 2.45

0.8267

0.1733

LnTK10

1 2.40

0.7923

0.2077

LnTK11

1 1.92

0.2766

0.7234

LnTK12

1 2.19

0.5809

0.4191

LnIC01

1 2.25

0.6602

0.3398

LnIC02

1 1.92

0.2858

0.7142

LnIC03

1 1.74

0.1310

0.8690

LnIC04

1 1.22

0.0046

0.9954

LnIC05

1 1.36

0.0126

0.9874

LnIC06

1 1.18

0.0042

0.9958

LnIC07

1 1.90

0.2867

0.7133

LnIC08

1 1.05

0.0006

0.9994

LnIC09

1 1.68

0.1092

0.8908

LnIC10

1 1.79

0.1769

0.8231

LnIC11

1 1.75

0.1387

0.8613

LnIC12

1 1.51

0.0388

0.9612



Lampiran 7. Hasil Validasi Model

The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Model Summary Model Variables

55

Endogenous

55

Parameters

203

ID Variables

1

Equations

55

Number of Statements

83

Program Lag Length

1

Data Set Options DATA=

BAPPENAS

OUT=

VALIDASI

Solution Summary Variables Solved

55

Simulation Lag Length

1

Solution Method

SEIDEL

CONVERGE=

1E-8

Maximum CC

9.905E-9

Maximum Iterations

12

Total Iterations

329

Average Iterations

10.28125

Observations Processed Read

153

33

Lagged

1

Solved

32

First

2

Last

33



The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Variable

154

N Obs N

Mean Std Dev

Predicted Mean Std Dev Label

LnCON

32 32 13.4577

0.4629 13.4746

0.4633

LnINV

32 32 12.7749

0.3735 12.7776

0.4090

LnGOV

32 32 11.5084

0.3913 11.5021

0.4010

LnEKS

32 32 13.0515

0.6030 13.0900

0.5338

LnIMP

32 32 12.8729

0.5466 12.8920

0.5218

LnXIMC

32 32 11.8892

1.3169 11.9011

1.2930

LnXPC

32 32 11.5601

0.6984 11.5464

0.5844

LnXMC

32 32 11.9516

0.3135 11.9585

0.3173

LnMBKC

32 32 10.0939

0.7848 10.1112

0.7128

LnMBBC

32 32 12.5877

0.5612 12.6090

0.5471

LnMBMC

32 32 11.1378

0.4911 11.1485

0.4252

LnMS

32 32 12.4265

1.8231 12.4647

1.8075

LnIRN

32 32

2.8217

0.1813

2.8181

0.1702

LnDR

32 32

2.6411

0.4397

2.6324

0.3887

LnIHKG

32 32

4.0736

0.8847

4.0776

0.8846

LnPDBDEF

32 32

4.0533

1.0853

4.0717

1.1108

LnPNMIG

32 32 13.3165

1.5601 13.3159

1.5580

LnPMIG

32 32 12.4572

0.9902 12.4543

0.9119

LnOA01

32 32 12.4331

0.3912 12.4545

0.4098

LnOA02

32 32 11.8331

0.2764 11.8939

0.3008

LnOA03

32 32

9.9813

1.1627

9.9619

1.0445

LnOA04

32 32

9.2556

0.8581

9.2099

0.7896

LnOA05

32 32 13.5613

0.6573 13.5600

0.6238

LnOA06

32 32 11.4217

0.5490 11.4256

0.5472

LnOA07

32 32

0.9038

9.9079

0.8143

LnOA08

32 32 12.1951

0.8739 12.4730

0.6485

LnOA09

32 32 12.5286

0.7494 12.5294

0.7247

LnOA10

32 32 11.5466

0.7900 11.5401

0.7741

9.9089



Descriptive Statistics Actual Variable

155

N Obs N

Mean Std Dev

Predicted Mean Std Dev Label

LnOA11

32 32 11.7644

0.7879 11.7753

0.7409

LnOA12

32 32 11.9550

0.4392 11.9336

0.4885

LnTK01

32 32 10.6087

0.1068 10.6258

0.1113

LnTK02

32 32

6.2532

0.3439

6.2811

0.2869

LnTK03

32 32

4.2049

0.7393

4.1970

0.6588

LnTK04

32 32

3.5055

0.5237

3.4812

0.4365

LnTK05

32 32

9.1287

0.3431

9.1299

0.3252

LnTK06

32 32

5.4808

0.7006

5.4980

0.7069

LnTK07

32 32

5.0972

0.4231

5.1006

0.3713

LnTK08

32 32

7.9325

0.4624

7.8239

0.3484

LnTK09

32 32

9.5307

0.3097

9.5087

0.2718

LnTK10

32 32

8.1470

0.4568

8.1328

0.4268

LnTK11

32 32

6.5627

0.7005

6.5896

0.6511

LnTK12

32 32

9.3372

0.2166

9.3739

0.2967

LnIC01

32 32 10.1113

0.4556 10.2397

0.6529

LnIC02

32 32

8.7332

0.2894

8.7353

0.1121

LnIC03

32 32

7.3258

1.1865

7.2488

0.8801

LnIC04

32 32

6.5744

1.0230

6.4926

0.8747

LnIC05

32 32 11.1077

0.6109 11.0825

0.4963

LnIC06

32 32

9.7485

1.0734

9.6645

1.0117

LnIC07

32 32

7.4847

0.5986

7.4146

0.4267

LnIC08

32 32 10.1074

0.6165

9.9755

0.4659

LnIC09

32 32 10.4003

0.5953 10.3815

0.5293

LnIC10

32 32 10.7111

0.7221 10.6932

0.6272

LnIC11

32 32 10.1596

0.8033 10.1371

0.6875

LnIC12

32 32 10.8526

0.1805 10.8444

0.0547

PDB

32 32 1358732

572718 1377437

577441 PDB



Variable

N

Mean Error

Mean % Error

Statistics of fit Mean Mean Abs Abs % Error Error

RMS Error

RMS % Error

RLabel Square

LnCON

32

0.0169

0.1266

0.0513

0.3895

0.0679

0.5188

0.9778

LnINV

32

0.00262

0.0147

0.0752

0.5891

0.0920

0.7226

0.9374

LnGOV

32 -0.00637

-0.0571

0.0512

0.4480

0.0629

0.5512

0.9733

LnEKS

32

0.0385

0.3251

0.1228

0.9598

0.1488

1.1729

0.9371

LnIMP

32

0.0191

0.1643

0.1274

1.0007

0.1644

1.3010

0.9067

LnXIMC

32

0.0119

0.1585

0.1761

1.5309

0.2096

1.8564

0.9739

LnXPC

32

-0.0137

-0.0300

0.2082

1.8242

0.2859

2.4904

0.8270

LnXMC

32

0.00693

0.0606

0.0804

0.6770

0.0971

0.8224

0.9009

LnMBKC

32

0.0173

0.2635

0.2011

2.0565

0.2542

2.6398

0.8917

LnMBBC

32

0.0213

0.1852

0.1605

1.2984

0.1953

1.6051

0.8750

LnMBMC

32

0.0107

0.1526

0.2265

2.0318

0.2805

2.5209

0.6632

LnMS

32

0.0382

0.3490

0.1181

0.9591

0.1449

1.1722

0.9935

LnIRN

32 -0.00366

-0.0694

0.0634

2.2171

0.0790

2.7225

0.8040

LnDR

32 -0.00865

0.3711

0.1860

6.9646

0.2477

9.2226

0.6723

LnIHKG

32

0.00401

0.0981

0.0346

0.9190

0.0405

1.0946

0.9978

LnPDBDEF 32

0.0184

0.2743

0.0982

2.5400

0.1152

2.9832

0.9884

LnPNMIG

32 -0.00064

0.00751

0.1156

0.8540

0.1365

1.0119

0.9921

LnPMIG

32 -0.00293

0.0753

0.1893

1.6039

0.3340

3.1297

0.8825

LnOA01

32

0.0214

0.1692

0.0626

0.5048

0.0711

0.5714

0.9660

LnOA02

32

0.0608

0.5166

0.1214

1.0255

0.1536

1.3008

0.6813

LnOA03

32

-0.0193

-0.0282

0.1754

1.8157

0.2145

2.2924

0.9649

LnOA04

32

-0.0457

-0.3585

0.2338

2.4812

0.3460

3.5748

0.8321

LnOA05

32 -0.00124

0.00554

0.0791

0.5868

0.1022

0.7640

0.9750

LnOA06

32

0.00390

0.0390

0.0790

0.6940

0.0896

0.7858

0.9725

LnOA07

32 -0.00105

0.2119

0.2097

2.3520

0.3916

5.2129

0.8062

LnOA08

32

0.2779

2.5321

0.2940

2.6559

0.5609

5.8343

0.5748

LnOA09

32 0.000778

0.0206

0.0743

0.6023

0.0887

0.7247

0.9855

LnOA10

32 -0.00645

-0.0443

0.0576

0.5013

0.0708

0.6165

0.9917

LnOA11

32

0.0109

0.1250

0.0856

0.7395

0.1217

1.0430

0.9754

LnOA12

32

-0.0214

-0.1878

0.1087

0.8937

0.1400

1.1450

0.8950

LnTK01

32

0.0171

0.1638

0.0677

0.6386

0.0803

0.7593

0.4168

LnTK02

32

0.0279

0.5139

0.1028

1.6585

0.1287

2.0769

0.8555

156



Variable

N

Mean Error

Mean % Error

Statistics of fit Mean Mean Abs Abs % Error Error

RMS Error

RMS % Error

RLabel Square

LnTK03

32 -0.00795

0.2609

0.1291

3.2765

0.1592

4.3111

0.9521

LnTK04

32

-0.0244

0.0954

0.2369

6.8763

0.3159

8.9158

0.6244

LnTK05

32

0.00119

0.0254

0.0694

0.7650

0.0882

0.9789

0.9318

LnTK06

32

0.0171

0.3000

0.0771

1.4454

0.0967

1.8527

0.9804

LnTK07

32

0.00339

0.1744

0.0909

1.8033

0.1177

2.3244

0.9201

LnTK08

32

-0.1086

-1.2808

0.1550

1.9127

0.1876

2.2872

0.8300

LnTK09

32

-0.0220

-0.2165

0.0647

0.6745

0.0777

0.8049

0.9350

LnTK10

32

-0.0142

-0.1498

0.0664

0.8188

0.0785

0.9697

0.9695

LnTK11

32

0.0269

0.5108

0.0929

1.4770

0.1292

2.0956

0.9649

LnTK12

32

0.0367

0.3917

0.1502

1.6150

0.1939

2.0899

0.1728

LnIC01

32

0.1284

1.3011

0.4425

4.4330

0.5373

5.4028

-.4354

LnIC02

32

0.00216

0.1180

0.2057

2.3200

0.2807

3.1185

0.0285

LnIC03

32

-0.0771

-0.1329

0.3624

5.2725

0.4797

7.1124

0.8313

LnIC04

32

-0.0818

-0.4382

0.5298

7.4285

0.7389

9.6459

0.4615

LnIC05

32

-0.0252

-0.1312

0.2485

2.2371

0.3253

2.8856

0.7073

LnIC06

32

-0.0840

-0.7763

0.1252

1.2692

0.1891

1.8409

0.9679

LnIC07

32

-0.0701

-0.6820

0.2878

3.7726

0.3514

4.5308

0.6443

LnIC08

32

-0.1319

-1.2050

0.2027

1.9524

0.2628

2.4901

0.8124

LnIC09

32

-0.0187

-0.1346

0.1052

1.0090

0.1588

1.4895

0.9265

LnIC10

32

-0.0180

-0.0963

0.1373

1.2975

0.1841

1.7257

0.9329

LnIC11

32

-0.0225

-0.1204

0.1635

1.5980

0.2018

1.9441

0.9348

LnIC12

32 -0.00813

-0.0518

0.1180

1.0759

0.1652

1.4860

0.1353

PDB

32

3.4832 51451.2

4.2943

0.9917 PDB

157

18705.5

1.6431 41884.0



Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions

Inequality Coef

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC)

Variable

N

MSE

LnCON

32

0.00461

0.99

0.06

0.01

0.93

0.00

0.94 0.0050 0.0025

LnINV

32

0.00846

0.98

0.00

0.23

0.77

0.14

0.86 0.0072 0.0036

LnGOV

32

0.00396

0.99

0.01

0.05

0.94

0.02

0.97 0.0055 0.0027

LnEKS

32

0.0221

0.97

0.07

0.13

0.81

0.21

0.72 0.0114 0.0057

LnIMP

32

0.0270

0.95

0.01

0.00

0.99

0.02

0.96 0.0128 0.0064

LnXIMC

32

0.0439

0.99

0.00

0.00

1.00

0.01

0.98 0.0175 0.0088

LnXPC

32

0.0818

0.91

0.00

0.03

0.96

0.15

0.84 0.0247 0.0124

LnXMC

32

0.00943

0.95

0.01

0.04

0.96

0.00

0.99 0.0081 0.0041

LnMBKC

32

0.0646

0.95

0.00

0.01

0.98

0.08

0.92 0.0251 0.0125

LnMBBC

32

0.0381

0.94

0.01

0.01

0.98

0.01

0.98 0.0155 0.0077

LnMBMC

32

0.0787

0.82

0.00

0.01

0.99

0.05

0.95 0.0252 0.0126

LnMS

32

0.0210

1.00

0.07

0.00

0.93

0.01

0.92 0.0115 0.0058

LnIRN

32

0.00624

0.90

0.00

0.01

0.99

0.02

0.98 0.0279 0.0140

LnDR

32

0.0614

0.82

0.00

0.01

0.99

0.04

0.96 0.0926 0.0464

LnIHKG

32

0.00164

1.00

0.01

0.00

0.99

0.00

0.99 0.0097 0.0049

LnPDBDEF 32

0.0133

0.99

0.03

0.07

0.90

0.05

0.93 0.0275 0.0137

LnPNMIG

32

0.0186

1.00

0.00

0.00

1.00

0.00

1.00 0.0102 0.0051

LnPMIG

32

0.1116

0.94

0.00

0.00

1.00

0.05

0.95 0.0267 0.0134

LnOA01

32

0.00505

0.99

0.09

0.11

0.80

0.07

0.84 0.0057 0.0029

LnOA02

32

0.0236

0.88

0.16

0.14

0.71

0.02

0.82 0.0130 0.0065

LnOA03

32

0.0460

0.99

0.01

0.22

0.77

0.29

0.70 0.0214 0.0107

LnOA04

32

0.1197

0.91

0.02

0.00

0.98

0.04

0.94 0.0372 0.0187

LnOA05

32

0.0104

0.99

0.00

0.06

0.94

0.10

0.90 0.0075 0.0038

LnOA06

32

0.00804

0.99

0.00

0.00

0.99

0.00

1.00 0.0078 0.0039

LnOA07

32

0.1534

0.90

0.00

0.00

1.00

0.05

0.95 0.0394 0.0197

LnOA08

32

0.3146

0.83

0.25

0.02

0.74

0.16

0.60 0.0459 0.0227

LnOA09

32

0.00787

0.99

0.00

0.05

0.95

0.07

0.93 0.0071 0.0035

LnOA10

32

0.00501

1.00

0.01

0.03

0.96

0.05

0.94 0.0061 0.0031

LnOA11

32

0.0148

0.99

0.01

0.10

0.90

0.14

0.85 0.0103 0.0052

LnOA12

32

0.0196

0.96

0.02

0.22

0.75

0.12

0.86 0.0117 0.0059

LnTK01

32

0.00645

0.73

0.05

0.16

0.79

0.00

0.95 0.0076 0.0038

158

U1

U Label



Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions

Inequality Coef

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC)

Variable

N

MSE

LnTK02

32

0.0166

0.93

0.05

0.07

0.88

0.19

0.76 0.0205 0.0103

LnTK03

32

0.0254

0.98

0.00

0.16

0.83

0.25

0.75 0.0373 0.0187

LnTK04

32

0.0998

0.79

0.01

0.00

0.99

0.07

0.92 0.0892 0.0448

LnTK05

32

0.00777

0.97

0.00

0.00

1.00

0.04

0.96 0.0097 0.0048

LnTK06

32

0.00934

0.99

0.03

0.02

0.95

0.00

0.96 0.0175 0.0087

LnTK07

32

0.0139

0.96

0.00

0.09

0.91

0.19

0.81 0.0230 0.0115

LnTK08

32

0.0352

0.97

0.34

0.26

0.40

0.36

0.31 0.0236 0.0119

LnTK09

32

0.00604

0.97

0.08

0.14

0.78

0.23

0.69 0.0081 0.0041

LnTK10

32

0.00616

0.99

0.03

0.09

0.88

0.14

0.83 0.0096 0.0048

LnTK11

32

0.0167

0.98

0.04

0.09

0.87

0.14

0.82 0.0196 0.0098

LnTK12

32

0.0376

0.76

0.04

0.45

0.51

0.17

0.80 0.0208 0.0104

LnIC01

32

0.2886

0.59

0.06

0.49

0.45

0.13

0.81 0.0531 0.0264

LnIC02

32

0.0788

0.23

0.00

0.03

0.97

0.39

0.61 0.0321 0.0161

LnIC03

32

0.2301

0.93

0.03

0.22

0.75

0.40

0.58 0.0647 0.0326

LnIC04

32

0.5459

0.70

0.01

0.04

0.94

0.04

0.95 0.1111 0.0560

LnIC05

32

0.1058

0.84

0.01

0.00

0.99

0.12

0.87 0.0292 0.0146

LnIC06

32

0.0358

0.99

0.20

0.06

0.74

0.10

0.70 0.0193 0.0097

LnIC07

32

0.1235

0.82

0.04

0.03

0.93

0.23

0.73 0.0468 0.0235

LnIC08

32

0.0691

0.95

0.25

0.19

0.55

0.32

0.43 0.0260 0.0131

LnIC09

32

0.0252

0.97

0.01

0.08

0.91

0.17

0.82 0.0152 0.0076

LnIC10

32

0.0339

0.97

0.01

0.16

0.83

0.26

0.73 0.0171 0.0086

LnIC11

32

0.0407

0.97

0.01

0.22

0.77

0.32

0.67 0.0198 0.0099

LnIC12

32

0.0273

0.38

0.00

0.01

0.99

0.56

0.44 0.0152 0.0076

PDB

32 2.6472E9

1.00

0.13

0.02

0.85

0.01

0.86 0.0350 0.0174 PDB

159

U1

U Label



options nodate nonumber; proc import datafile="D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_En ergi\data_olah_agregasi_final.xls" dbms=EXCEL2002 out=work.exog_f replace; sheet='exog_f'; getnames=yes; run; data olahexo; set exog_f; if tahun > 2012 then delete; run; ods graphics on; ods rtf file='D:\00_Aplikasi_Model\Bappenas_IOECON\Model_Kontribusi_Energi \exogen.rtf'; TITLE 'Lampiran 2'; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=GGWL SCAN alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=1 q=1; Forecast id=tahun Lead=7 out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting Pertumbuhan Dunia'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=erus(1) SCAN alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast id=tahun lead=7 out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting Exchange Rate'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=PDBUSA(1,1) SCAN alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting PDB USA'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=IHPBEX(1) SCAN alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=1; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Export'; run;

160


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=INFL SCAN alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=1 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting Tingkat Inflasi'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=POIL(1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; Title 'Estimasi dan Forecasting Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=IHPBAG(1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Agriculture'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=IHPBMQ(1,1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Pertambangan'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=IHPBENO(1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Export Non Oil'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=IHPBEO(1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=1 q=1; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Export Oil'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); identify var=IHPBMF(1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=0 q=0; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Industri Manufacture'; run; proc arima data=olahexo plot(only)=residual(corr) plot(only)=forecast(forecast); 161


Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan identify var=IHPBG(1) scan alpha=0.05 stationarity=(adf=(1,2)); estimate p=2 q=2; forecast lead=7 id=tahun out=results; TITLE 'Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Umum'; run; ods graphics off; ods rtf close;

162



Estimasi dan Forecasting Pertumbuhan Dunia The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = GGWL Mean of Working Series

3.635838

Standard Deviation

1.067017

Number of Observations

33

Autocorrelation Check for White Noise To Lag Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq 6

11.04

6

Autocorrelations

0.0872 0.499 0.177 0.042 -0.033 -0.087 -0.103

Squared Canonical Correlation Estimates Lags MA 0 MA 1 MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 AR 0 0.2647 0.0357 0.0025 0.0016 0.0118 0.0180 AR 1 0.0073 0.0001 0.0035 0.0008 0.0120 0.0113 AR 2 0.0013 0.0025 0.0005 0.0020 0.0002 0.0142 AR 3 0.0075 0.0053 0.0068 <.0001 0.0005 <.0001 AR 4 0.0106 0.0006 0.0005 0.0083 <.0001 <.0001 AR 5 0.0011 0.0024 0.0034 0.0013 0.0055 0.0057

SCAN Chi-Square[1] Probability Values Lags MA 0 MA 1 MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 AR 0 0.0014 0.3692 0.8076 0.8490 0.6241 0.5590 AR 1 0.6277 0.9478 0.7593 0.9059 0.5881 0.5973 AR 2 0.8430 0.8129 0.9143 0.8326 0.9499 0.5710 AR 3 0.6351 0.7010 0.6982 0.9639 0.9206 0.9863 AR 4 0.5782 0.9094 0.9261 0.7451 0.9860 0.9954 AR 5 0.8614 0.8121 0.7869 0.8955 0.7410 0.7461

163

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


ARMA(p+d,q) Tentative Order Selection Tests SCAN p+d

q

1

0

0

1

(5% Significance Level)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Type

Lags

Zero Mean Single Mean Trend

Rho Pr < Rho Tau Pr < Tau

F Pr > F

1

-0.6016

0.5418 -0.44

0.5142

2

-0.0557

0.6632 -0.06

0.6568

1 -19.2334

0.0052 -3.16

0.0323 5.02

0.0457

2 -21.5668

0.0021 -3.35

0.0209 5.85

0.0241

1 -28.1702

0.0014 -3.44

0.0640 6.16

0.0753

2 -33.5967

<.0001 -3.29

0.0871 6.21

0.0733

Conditional Least Squares Estimation Parameter Estimate MU

Standard Approx Error t Value Pr > |t| Lag

3.56069

0.30545

11.66

<.0001

0

MA1,1

-0.18835

0.34966

-0.54

0.5941

1

AR1,1

0.36713

0.32998

1.11

0.2747

1

Constant Estimate

2.253439

Variance Estimate

0.928534

Std Error Estimate

0.963605

AIC

94.05783

SBC

98.54735

Number of Residuals

33

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant.

164

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Correlations of Parameter Estimates Parameter MU

MU MA1,1 AR1,1 1.000

-0.020

-0.056

MA1,1

-0.020

1.000

0.856

AR1,1

-0.056

0.856

1.000

Autocorrelation Check of Residuals To Lag Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

Autocorrelations

6

0.45

4

0.9783

0.001

12

5.53

10

0.8531

0.047 -0.150 0.066

18

10.64

16

0.8313 -0.084 -0.224 -0.071

24

20.40

22

0.5578

0.004

0.003 -0.023 -0.029 -0.096 0.246

0.115

0.010

0.084 -0.038 -0.098

0.088 -0.025 0.134 -0.038

0.026 -0.235

Model for variable GGWL Estimated Mean 3.560687

165

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Autoregressive Factors Factor 1: 1 - 0.36713 B**(1)

Moving Average Factors Factor 1: 1 + 0.18835 B**(1)

Forecasts for variable GGWL

Obs Forecast Std Error

166

95% Confidence Limits

34

3.3827

0.9636 1.4941 5.2714

35

3.4954

1.1023 1.3349 5.6558

36

3.5367

1.1197 1.3422 5.7312

37

3.5519

1.1220 1.3528 5.7510

38

3.5575

1.1223 1.3578 5.7571

39

3.5595

1.1223 1.3597 5.7593

40

3.5603

1.1224 1.3605 5.7600

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting Exchange Rate The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = ERUS Period(s) of Differencing

1

Mean of Working Series

273.625

Standard Deviation

1439.26


32

Observation(s) eliminated by differencing

1


5.78

6

Autocorrelations

0.4484 -0.260 -0.124 0.215 -0.039 -0.153 -0.053

Squared Canonical Correlation Estimates Lags MA 0 MA 1 MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 AR 0 0.0678 0.0155 0.0484 0.0016 0.0246 0.0030 AR 1 0.0424 0.0499 0.0377 0.0313 0.0073 0.0115 AR 2 0.0188 0.0120 0.0024 0.0215 0.0003 0.0073 AR 3 0.0024 0.0169 0.0185 0.0114 0.0059 0.0044 AR 4 0.0146 0.0099 0.0002 0.0082 <.0001 <.0001 AR 5 0.0385 0.0236 0.0109 0.0068 <.0001 <.0001 SCAN Chi-Square[1] Probability Values Lags MA 0 MA 1 MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 AR 0 0.1338 0.5136 0.2601 0.8485 0.4578 0.8042 AR 1 0.2465 0.2592 0.3322 0.3749 0.7359 0.6366 AR 2 0.4504 0.6060 0.8252 0.5235 0.9533 0.7333 AR 3 0.7922 0.5040 0.4991 0.7306 0.7924 0.8329 AR 4 0.5214 0.6434 0.9578 0.7793 0.9969 0.9848 AR 5 0.3035 0.5178 0.7125 0.8074 0.9849 0.9919 ARMA(p+d,q) Tentative Order Selection Tests SCAN p+d

q

0

0

(5% Significance Level) 167

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013

Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Type

Lags

Rho

1

-57.5380

2

Single Mean Trend

Pr < Rho

Tau

Pr < Tau

F

Pr > F

0.0001 -5.09

0.0003 12.96

0.0010

-33.5456

0.0001 -2.98

0.0484

4.44

0.0728

1

-57.6083

<.0001 -5.00

0.0018 12.52

0.0010

2

-33.2781

<.0001 -2.92

0.1714

0.3443

4.32

Conditional Least Squares Estimation Parameter

Estimate

Standard Error t Value

MU

273.62500

258.49866

Approx Pr > |t| Lag

1.06

0.2980

Constant Estimate

273.625

Variance Estimate

2138290

Std Error Estimate

1462.289

AIC

558.2126

SBC

559.6784

Number of Residuals

0

32

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Autocorrelation Check of Residuals To Lag

168

Chi-Square DF

Pr > ChiSq

Autocorrelations

6

5.78

6

0.4484

-0.260

-0.124

0.215

-0.039

-0.153

-0.053

12

9.03

12

0.7004

0.102

-0.041

-0.085

-0.027

0.139

-0.157

18

9.72

18

0.9406

-0.094

0.038

0.008

-0.026

-0.012

0.022

24

9.76

24

0.9955

-0.003

0.001

0.015

0.013

-0.004

0.000

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013

Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan Model for variable ERUS Estimated Mean

273.625

Period(s) of Differencing

1

Forecasts for variable ERUS

169


Obs

Forecast

Std Error

34

9657.6250

1462.2892

6791.5908

12523.6592

35

9931.2500

2067.9893

5878.0655

13984.4345

36

10204.8750

2532.7593

5240.7581

15168.9919

37

10478.5000

2924.5785

4746.4315

16210.5685

38

10752.1250

3269.7781

4343.4776

17160.7724

39

11025.7500

3581.8625

4005.4285

18046.0715

40

11299.3750

3868.8537

3716.5611

18882.1889

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting PDB USA The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = PDBUSA Period(s) of Differencing

1,1


86.89406

Standard Deviation

230.3561


31


2

Estimasi dan Forecasting PDB USA The ARIMA Procedure Autocorrelation Check for White Noise To Lag Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq 6

4.22

6

Autocorrelations

0.6468 0.050 0.160 0.176 0.222 0.003 0.077


q

0

0


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Type Zero Mean Single Mean Trend

170

Lags


F Pr > F

1 -13.1947

0.0070 -2.34

0.0210

2

-6.7526

0.0635 -1.47

0.1280

1 -18.0921

0.0076 -2.75

0.0771 3.81

0.1315

2 -10.2547

0.0929 -1.80

0.3730 1.65

0.6596

1 -30.7197

0.0003 -3.78

0.0324 7.34

0.0359

2 -28.3010

0.0009 -3.13

0.1189 5.34

0.1513

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013




86.89406

42.05708

2.07

0.0475

Constant Estimate

86.89406

Variance Estimate

54832.74

Std Error Estimate

234.1639

AIC

427.231

SBC

428.665

Number of Residuals

0

31

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Autocorrelation Check of Residuals To Lag Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

171

Autocorrelations

6

4.22

6

12

5.17

12

0.9520 -0.073 -0.013 0.002

18

9.04

18

0.9588 -0.058 0.091 -0.103 -0.069 -0.152 -0.078

24

23.25

24

0.5050 -0.023 -0.067 -0.225 -0.062

0.6468

0.050

0.160

0.176

0.222

0.003

0.077

0.008 -0.118 -0.011 0.119 -0.208

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013

Pengembangan Model Proyeksi Kontribusi Sektor Energi dan Pertambangan Model for variable PDBUSA Estimated Mean

86.89406


1,1

Forecasts for variable PDBUSA

172

Obs

Forecast

Std Error 95% Confidence Limits

34

28294.0520

234.1639

27835.0992

28753.0048

35

31288.5559

523.6064

30262.3062

32314.8056

36

34369.9539

876.1611

32652.7097

36087.1981

37

37538.2459

1282.5685

35024.4578

40052.0341

38

40793.4320

1736.6060

37389.7467

44197.1173

39

44135.5121

2233.7813

39757.3812

48513.6431

40

47564.4863

2770.6647

42134.0833

52994.8894

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Export The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBEX Period(s) of Differencing

1


4.7875

Standard Deviation

18.75994


32


1


3.02

6

Autocorrelations

0.8059 -0.244 -0.058 0.075 -0.106 -0.055 0.033

Squared Canonical Correlation Estimates Lags MA 0 MA 1 MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 AR 0 0.0598 0.0034 0.0057 0.0265 0.0100 0.0037 AR 1 0.0162 0.0065 0.0003 0.0408 0.0076 0.0135 AR 2 0.0009 0.0019 0.0150 0.0233 0.0158 0.0114 AR 3 0.0053 0.0129 0.0164 0.0233 <.0001 0.0032 AR 4 0.0139 0.0060 0.0071 0.0007 <.0001 0.0161 AR 5 0.0004 0.0358 0.0030 0.0004 0.0123 0.0035


q

0

0


173

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013



Lags



F Pr > F

1 -37.5630

<.0001 -4.11

0.0002

2 -24.5753

<.0001 -2.70

0.0086

1 -48.4044

0.0001 -4.64

0.0008 10.79

0.0010

2 -42.2831

0.0001 -3.22

0.0283

5.22

0.0405

1 -49.7948

<.0001 -4.63

0.0046 10.72

0.0010

2 -44.9091

<.0001 -3.22

0.0994

0.1767

5.20

Conditional Least Squares Estimation Parameter Estimate


MU

4.77244

2.36600

2.02

0.0527

0

MA1,1

0.29142

0.17477

1.67

0.1058

1

Constant Estimate

4.772438

Variance Estimate

348.5868

Std Error Estimate

18.67048

AIC

280.0712

SBC

283.0027

Number of Residuals

32


Correlations of Parameter Estimates Parameter MU MA1,1

174

MU MA1,1 1.000

-0.013

-0.013

1.000

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013



Autocorrelations

6

0.90

5

0.9701

0.013 -0.046 0.035 -0.102 -0.070

12

10.03

11

0.5277

0.189

18

10.29

17

0.8909 -0.033 -0.033 -0.032 -0.024 -0.021

0.001

24

10.70

23

0.9860 -0.043 -0.016 0.004 -0.032

0.020

0.046 -0.133

0.063

0.096 -0.307 -0.154 0.023

Model for variable IHPBEX Estimated Mean

4.772438


1

Moving Average Factors Factor 1: 1 - 0.29142 B**(1)

175

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Forecasts for variable IHPBEX Obs Forecast Std Error

176


34 166.2603

18.6705 129.6668 202.8538

35 171.0327

22.8824 126.1840 215.8814

36 175.8052

26.4315 124.0004 227.6099

37 180.5776

29.5574 122.6461 238.5091

38 185.3500

32.3830 121.8805 248.8196

39 190.1225

34.9811 121.5607 258.6842

40 194.8949

37.3992 121.5939 268.1959

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting Tingkat Inflasi The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = INFL Mean of Working Series

9.910606

Standard Deviation

9.104598


33


2.03

6

Autocorrelations

0.9172 0.142 -0.135 0.069 0.030 -0.062 -0.075


q

0

0

(5% Significance Level) Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Type

Lags



F Pr > F

1

-9.0686

0.0299 -2.12

0.0346

2

-3.9962

0.1610 -1.36

0.1569

1 -36.7918

0.0002 -4.05

0.0036 8.21

0.0010

2 -24.7256

0.0006 -2.72

0.0823 3.71

0.1565

1 -36.8139

<.0001 -3.98

0.0202 7.93

0.0231

2 -24.6795

0.0053 -2.67

0.2564 3.58

0.4838

Conditional Least Squares Estimation Parameter Estimate

177


MU

9.90262

1.87699

5.28

<.0001

0

AR1,1

0.14222

0.17811

0.80

0.4307

1

Constant Estimate

8.49427

Variance Estimate

86.46321

Std Error Estimate

9.29856

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


AIC

242.7575

SBC

245.7505

Number of Residuals

33

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Correlations of Parameter Estimates Parameter MU AR1,1

MU AR1,1 1.000

-0.011

-0.011

1.000


178

Autocorrelations

6

1.78

5

0.8783

0.022 -0.171 0.087

0.032 -0.058 -0.070

12

3.67

11

0.9786

0.033 -0.097 -0.090

0.005 -0.105 -0.088

18

6.43

17

0.9898 -0.190 -0.037

0.063 -0.013

0.046

0.048

24

6.55

23

0.9997

0.022

0.007

0.014

0.013

0.012

0.013

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable INFL Estimated Mean 9.902617

Autoregressive Factors Factor 1: 1 - 0.14222 B**(1)

Forecasts for variable INFL

Obs Forecast Std Error

179


34

9.4614

9.2986 -8.7635 27.6862

35

9.8399

9.3921 -8.5684 28.2481

36

9.8937

9.3940 -8.5182 28.3056

37

9.9013

9.3940 -8.5106 28.3133

38

9.9024

9.3940 -8.5096 28.3144

39

9.9026

9.3940 -8.5094 28.3146

40

9.9026

9.3940 -8.5094 28.3146

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = POIL Period(s) of Differencing

1


2.16875

Standard Deviation

11.76432


32


1


12.06

6

Autocorrelations

0.0606 -0.213 -0.212 0.393 -0.105 0.045 0.246


Q

1

1


Lags



F Pr > F

1 -60.4267

<.0001 -4.96

<.0001

2

-9.8713

0.0222 -1.49

0.1254

1 -70.7148

0.0001 -5.33

0.0002 14.21

0.0010

2 -14.1892

0.0286 -1.84

0.3549

1.95

0.5865

1 -155.709

0.0001 -7.66

0.0001 29.37

0.0010

2 -99.3860

<.0001 -3.55

0.0523

0.0586

6.54


180

2.16875

Standard Approx Error t Value Pr > |t| Lag 2.11294

1.03

0.3126

0

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Constant Estimate

2.16875

Variance Estimate

142.8638

Std Error Estimate

11.95257

AIC

250.5767

SBC

252.0424

Number of Residuals

32



181

Autocorrelations

6

12.06

6

0.0606 -0.213 -0.212 0.393 -0.105

0.045

0.246

12

17.12

12

0.1450 -0.094 -0.025 0.180 -0.179

0.016

0.167

18

19.94

18

0.3362 -0.169 -0.077 0.027 0.027 -0.080

0.058

24

24.98

24

0.4068 -0.130 -0.149 0.061 -0.082 -0.003 -0.061

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable POIL Estimated Mean

2.16875


1

Forecasts for variable POIL Obs Forecast Std Error

182


34 107.1688

11.9526 83.7422 130.5953

35 109.3375

16.9035 76.2073 142.4677

36 111.5063

20.7025 70.9302 152.0823

37 113.6750

23.9051 66.8218 160.5282

38 115.8438

26.7268 63.4603 168.2272

39 118.0125

29.2777 60.6293 175.3957

40 120.1813

31.6235 58.2003 182.1622

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Agriculture The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBAG Period(s) of Differencing

1


7.91875

Standard Deviation

19.26219


32


1


1.67

6

Autocorrelations

0.9475 -0.159 -0.079 0.006 0.076 0.051 0.074


q

0

0


Lags



F Pr > F

1 -25.9441

<.0001 -3.40

0.0013

2 -16.6285

0.0019 -2.27

0.0246

1 -43.5012

0.0001 -4.42

0.0014

9.79

0.0010

2 -47.7261

0.0001 -3.32

0.0228

5.55

0.0315

1 -60.3179

<.0001 -5.11

0.0014 13.07

0.0010

2 -150.209

0.0001 -4.16

0.0141

0.0113

8.67


183

7.91875


2.29

0.0291

0

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Constant Estimate

7.91875

Variance Estimate

383.0009

Std Error Estimate

19.57041

AIC

282.1333

SBC

283.599

Number of Residuals

32


Autocorrelation Check of Residuals To Lag Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq 6

1.67

6

12

5.70

18 24

Autocorrelations

0.9475 -0.159 -0.079 0.006

0.076

0.051

0.074

12

0.9302

0.128 -0.235

0.014

6.45

18

0.9940 -0.009 -0.038 -0.049 -0.052 -0.055 -0.035

7.26

24

0.9996 -0.042 -0.036 -0.026 -0.053 -0.024 -0.028

0.039

0.031

0.073

Model for variable IHPBAG Estimated Mean Period(s) of Differencing

184

7.91875 1

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Forecasts for variable IHPBAG Obs Forecast Std Error

185


34 270.9188

19.5704 232.5615 309.2760

35 278.8375

27.6767 224.5921 333.0829

36 286.7563

33.8969 220.3195 353.1930

37 294.6750

39.1408 217.9604 371.3896

38 302.5937

43.7608 216.8242 388.3633

39 310.5125

47.9375 216.5567 404.4683

40 318.4312

51.7784 216.9474 419.9151

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Pertambangan The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBMQ Period(s) of Differencing

1,1


0.42029

Standard Deviation

5.567959


31


2


18.88

6

Autocorrelations

0.0044 -0.428 -0.069 0.242 -0.482 0.196 -0.003


q

3

1

4

0

2

3

0

4



186

Lags


F Pr > F

1 -75.3852

<.0001 -5.92

<.0001

2 -45.1462

<.0001 -3.33

0.0017

1 -78.7510

0.0001 -5.95

0.0002 17.71

0.0010

2 -51.1900

<.0001 -3.39

0.0195

5.76

0.0260

1 -79.0260

<.0001 -5.84

0.0003 17.07

0.0010

2 -51.4192

<.0001 -3.32

0.0831

0.1161

5.52

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013




0.42029

1.01657

0.41

0.6822

Constant Estimate

0.42029

Variance Estimate

32.03558

Std Error Estimate

5.659998

AIC

196.43

SBC

197.864

Number of Residuals

0

31

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Autocorrelation Check of Residuals To Lag Chi-Square DF Pr > ChiSq

187

Autocorrelations

6

18.88

6

0.0044 -0.428 -0.069 0.242 -0.482

0.196 -0.003

12

21.42

12

0.0445 -0.009 0.204 -0.114 -0.030

0.012 -0.025

18

21.46

18

0.2567

0.010 -0.011 -0.004

0.017 -0.007

24

21.48

24

0.6102

0.002 -0.001 -0.005 -0.002 -0.011

0.007

0.002

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable IHPBMQ Estimated Mean

0.42029


1,1

Forecasts for variable IHPBMQ Obs Forecast Std Error

188


34 272.2233

5.6600 261.1299 283.3167

35 288.6929

12.6561 263.8873 313.4985

36 305.5828

21.1778 264.0751 347.0905

37 322.8929

31.0011 262.1319 383.6539

38 340.6234

41.9757 258.3526 422.8942

39 358.7741

53.9929 252.9499 464.5983

40 377.3451

66.9700 246.0864 508.6039

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Export Non Oil The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBENO Period(s) of Differencing

1


5.142188

Standard Deviation

51.38135


32


1


5.86

6

Autocorrelations

0.4388 -0.307 -0.064 0.058 -0.242 0.007 -0.003


q

4

0

0

4



189

Lags


F Pr > F

1 -53.8882

<.0001 -4.96

<.0001

2 -53.3758

<.0001 -3.46

0.0012

1 -56.2757

0.0001 -5.00

0.0004 12.51

0.0010

2 -60.2015

0.0001 -3.52

0.0141

6.22

0.0170

1 -56.2690

<.0001 -4.91

0.0023 12.04

0.0010

2 -60.2973

<.0001 -3.45

0.0648

0.0845

5.96

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013




5.14219

9.22836

0.56

0.5814

Constant Estimate

5.142187

Variance Estimate

2725.206

Std Error Estimate

52.20351

AIC

344.9257

SBC

346.3914

Number of Residuals

0

32



190

Autocorrelations

6

5.86

6

12

10.49

12

0.5733

0.170 -0.053 -0.046

18

10.52

18

0.9137

0.019

0.004 -0.009 -0.004 -0.001

0.006

24

10.53

24

0.9920

0.002 -0.001 0.004 -0.010 -0.001

0.003

0.4388 -0.307 -0.064 0.058 -0.242

0.007 -0.003

0.155 -0.194 -0.007

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable IHPBENO Estimated Mean

5.142187


1

Forecasts for variable IHPBENO Obs Forecast Std Error

191


34 177.2922

52.2035

74.9752 279.6092

35 182.4344

73.8269

37.7363 327.1325

36 187.5766

90.4191

10.3583 364.7948

37 192.7188

104.4070 -11.9152 397.3527

38 197.8609

116.7306 -30.9268 426.6487

39 203.0031

127.8720 -47.6213 453.6275

40 208.1453

138.1175 -62.5600 478.8506

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Export Oil The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBEO Period(s) of Differencing

1


4.560938

Standard Deviation

13.11919


32


1


14.60

6

Autocorrelations

0.0236 -0.186 0.078 -0.041 0.476 -0.318 0.071


q

1

1

4

0


Lags



F Pr > F

1 -22.4454

0.0002 -3.21

0.0023

2 -16.8432

0.0018 -2.39

0.0183

1 -32.6836

0.0001 -3.85

0.0062 7.41

0.0010

2 -33.9016

0.0001 -3.06

0.0409 4.68

0.0598

1 -35.5826

<.0001 -3.92

0.0235 7.70

0.0276

2 -41.4744

<.0001 -3.14

0.1161 4.95

0.2253


192


4.47247

2.18176

2.05

0.0495

0

MA1,1

-0.89864

0.29223

-3.08

0.0046

1

AR1,1

-0.99713

0.17709

-5.63

<.0001

1

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Constant Estimate

8.932075

Variance Estimate

167.8211

Std Error Estimate

12.95458

AIC

257.5947

SBC

261.9919

Number of Residuals

32

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Correlations of Parameter Estimates Parameter

MU MA1,1 AR1,1

MU

1.000

0.049

0.055

MA1,1

0.049

1.000

0.959

AR1,1

0.055

0.959

1.000


193

Autocorrelations

6

10.27

4

0.0361

0.018 -0.157 0.212

12

13.71

10

0.1869

0.039

18

15.12

16

0.5162 -0.010 -0.110 -0.058 -0.037 -0.053 -0.045

24

15.64

22

0.8333 -0.003 0.003 -0.016 -0.030

0.374 -0.203 -0.117

0.027 -0.147 -0.043 -0.086 -0.184 0.038

0.041

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable IHPBEO Estimated Mean

4.472466


1

Autoregressive Factors Factor 1: 1 + 0.99713 B**(1)

Moving Average Factors Factor 1: 1 + 0.89864 B**(1)

Forecasts for variable IHPBEO Obs Forecast Std Error

194


34 152.1237

12.9546 126.7332 177.5142

35 163.1760

17.4418 128.9907 197.3612

36 161.0875

21.7242 118.5089 203.6662

37 172.1020

24.6662 123.7572 220.4468

38 170.0512

27.8577 115.4511 224.6513

39 181.0282

30.2095 121.8186 240.2378

40 179.0149

32.8657 114.5993 243.4304

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Industri Manufacture The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBMF Period(s) of Differencing

1


5.515625

Standard Deviation

23.73616


32


1


2.06

6

Autocorrelations

0.9139 -0.188 -0.016 -0.124 -0.063 0.021 0.039


q

0

0



Lags



F Pr > F

1 -32.6708

<.0001 -3.89

0.0003

2 -39.0437

<.0001 -3.21

0.0023

1 -39.6968

0.0001 -4.23

0.0023 8.96

0.0010

2 -66.0606

0.0001 -3.66

0.0103 6.69

0.0081

1 -40.2298

<.0001 -4.18

0.0133 8.72

0.0104

2 -68.6221

<.0001 -3.61

0.0467 6.51

0.0598


195

5.51563


1.29

0.2053

0

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Constant Estimate

5.515625

Variance Estimate

581.5794

Std Error Estimate

24.11596

AIC

295.5

SBC

296.9658

Number of Residuals

32



196

Autocorrelations

6

2.06

6

12

3.84

12

0.9862

0.015

18

3.90

18

0.9998

0.004 -0.019 -0.010 -0.011 -0.011 -0.013

24

3.91

24

1.0000 -0.002 -0.001 -0.006 -0.010

0.9139 -0.188 -0.016 -0.124 -0.063 0.014

0.021

0.039

0.048 -0.037 -0.175

0.001

0.000

0.002

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable IHPBMF Estimated Mean

5.515625


1

Forecasts for variable IHPBMF Obs Forecast Std Error

197


34 192.8156

24.1160 145.5492 240.0820

35 198.3313

34.1051 131.4865 265.1760

36 203.8469

41.7701 121.9791 285.7147

37 209.3625

48.2319 114.8297 303.8953

38 214.8781

53.9249 109.1872 320.5690

39 220.3938

59.0718 104.6152 336.1723

40 225.9094

63.8048 100.8542 350.9645

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Estimasi dan Forecasting IHPB Umum The ARIMA Procedure Name of Variable = IHPBG Period(s) of Differencing Mean of Working Series Standard Deviation Number of Observations Observation(s) eliminated by differencing

1 8.534375 12.06753 32 1

Autocorrelation Check for White Noise To Lag 6

Chi-Square DF 8.43

6

Pr > ChiSq

Autocorrelations

0.2080 0.138 0.379 0.188 0.097 0.146

-0.002

ARMA(p+d,q) Tentative Order Selection Tests SCAN p+d q 1

1

2

0

0

2


Type Zero Mean

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Lags Rho Pr < Rho Tau Pr < Tau

Single Mean Trend

F

Pr > F

0.2755 -0.82

0.3504

-11.3976

0.0681 -2.23

0.2010 2.58

0.4306

-7.8275

0.1884 -1.69

0.4277 1.56

0.6808

1

-30.1883

0.0005 -3.64

0.0433 6.63

0.0546

2

-38.2314

<.0001 -3.12

0.1201 4.88

0.2371

1

-4.7310

0.1259 -1.31

0.1711

2

-2.4401

1 2

Conditional Least Squares Estimation Parameter

198

Estimate

Standard Error t Value

Approx Pr > |t| Lag

MU

8.16977

4.11615

1.98

0.0574

0

MA1,1

0.33905

0.59887

0.57

0.5760

1

MA1,2

-0.13154

0.55601

-0.24

0.8148

2

AR1,1

0.39054

0.58803

0.66

0.5122

1

AR1,2

0.23789

0.59521

0.40

0.6925

2

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Constant Estimate

3.035644

Variance Estimate

142.7323

Std Error Estimate

11.94706

AIC

254.1264

SBC

261.455

Number of Residuals

32

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Correlations of Parameter Estimates Parameter MU

MU MA1,1 MA1,2 AR1,1

AR1,2

1.000

-0.038

0.104

-0.036

0.095

MA1,1

-0.038

1.000

-0.666

0.947

-0.749

MA1,2

0.104

-0.666

1.000

-0.650

0.932

AR1,1

-0.036

0.947

-0.650

1.000

-0.773

AR1,2

0.095

-0.749

0.932

-0.773

1.000

Autocorrelation Check of Residuals To Lag

199

Chi-Square DF

Pr > ChiSq

Autocorrelations

6

0.37

2

0.8307

-0.002

0.002

-0.002

-0.042

0.057

-0.064

12

6.42

8

0.6008

-0.067

-0.008

0.347

0.049

-0.002

-0.027

18

7.75

14

0.9021

-0.023

0.001

-0.060

-0.115

-0.042

-0.023

24

8.51

20

0.9879

-0.044

-0.020

-0.031

-0.042

-0.038

-0.026

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013


Model for variable IHPBG Estimated Mean

8.169769


1

Autoregressive Factors Factor 1: 1 - 0.39054 B**(1) - 0.23789 B**(2) Moving Average Factors Factor 1: 1 - 0.33905 B**(1) + 0.13154 B**(2) Forecasts for variable IHPBG Obs Forecast Std Error

200


34 295.0679

11.9471 271.6521 318.4837

35 308.4670

17.3362 274.4887 342.4453

36 319.7253

24.4323 271.8387 367.6118

37 330.3452

31.0615 269.4659 391.2245

38 340.2066

37.5245 266.6599 413.7533

39 349.6199

43.6268 264.1130 435.1268

40 358.6777

49.3966 261.8622 455.4932

Bappenas – Jica

| 2013

Laporan Akhir PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PROYEKSI KONTRIBUSI SEKTOR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN Model Input-Output Ekonometrika

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