ISU-ISU STRATEGIK PEBANGUNAN EKONOMI NASIONAL
Faisal Basri 20 April 2015
Bagian I Perkembangan Politik
1
From extractive to inclusive political and economic institutions: Indonesia “in making” Political competition
Low
High
Orde Baru (Soeharto): • High concentration of political power • Double functions of military • Governance effectiveness • Systemic and organized corruption
Current government: • High dispersion of political power • Government ineffectiveness • High corruption • High degree of local autonomy Future government: • Government effectiveness • Low corruption • High degree of local autonomy & competition • Rules of law and rules of the game
Institutional Capacity
Low
High
??? (Can not step back)
Penegak hukum bergantung selera “penguasa” Senin, 05/10/2009 18:09 WIB Chandra & Bibit Tersangka
Mabes Polri: Penetapan Tersangka Tak Bisa Dipraperadilankan
17 Februari 2015
Irwan Nugroho – detikNews
Jakarta - Mabes Polri meminta hakim menolak gugatan praperadilan Masyarakat Anti Korupsi Indonesia (MAKI) atas penetapan tersangka wakil ketua KPK nonaktif, Chandra M Hamzah dan Bibit Samad Rianto. Alasannya, penetapan status tersangka tak bisa dipraperadilankan. …..
Sumber:http://news.detik.com/read/2009/10/05/1 80901/1215782/10
Kepala Bareskrim: Status Tersangka Bisa Dipraperadilankan Sumber: http://www.konfrontasi.com/content/politik/kepalabareskrim-status-tersangka-bisa-dipraperadilankan
2
Presiden ibarat CEO menghadapi pemegang saham pengendali Presiden bukan dari elit partai dan bukan pengendali partai politik baru pertama kali terjadi Presiden tidak terkait dengan struktur kekuasaan Orde baru tak memikul beban masa lalu. Rakyat sebagai pemegang saham mayoritas kalah pengaruh ketimbang pemegang saham pengendali (KIH) Ada pula “KMP” (Kalla-Megawati-Paloh) yang masih mencengkeram. Presiden butuh penopang dari luar agar tidak terkerangkeng (civil society: Tim Independen /Tim-9, media massa, media sosial, relawan) Perlu waktu untuk konsolidasi kekuasaan.
Sumber energi baru: the rise of local leaders Younger figures emerge, offering fresher perspectives with vision, starting as local change leaders: Tri Rismaharini (Surabaya Mayor), Ridwan Kamil (Bandung Mayor), Jokowi-Ahok (Jakarta Governor and Deputy), Abdullah Azwar Anas (Banyuwangi Regent), Nurdin Abdullah (Bantaeng Regent), Bima Arya (Bogor Mayor), Hugua (Wakatobi Regent), Suyoto (Bojonegoro Regent), Muda Mahendra (Kuburaya former Regent), Ganjar Pranowo (Central Java Governor)
Chain effect: rising to the occasion Jokowi as an alternative figure for leading the nation? “We must accept finite disappointment, but we must never lose infinite hope.” ~ Martin Luther King Jr.
3
Bagian II Perkembangan Ekonomi dan Ancaman Middle Income Trap
The rise and decline of Indonesian economy: GDP growth 1961-2014 (%) 15
Trendline-polynomial
12.0 9.8
10
6.2
6.1
1.1 -2.3
-5
9.1
8.5
8.4 5.7
6.3
6.2
6.0
Pertamina crisis
5
0
9.2
5.6
6.0
4.6
5.0
Global financial crisis
3.5 1.1
Oil price collapse
The fall of Old Order Economic crisis and the end of New Order/Soeharto era
-10
-13.1 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-15
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, and BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
4
Penurunan pertumbuhan tampaknya telah mencapai titik terendah pada Q4-2014 Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
8
7
6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5
6.3 6.4
6.3 5.9
6
6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.7 5.2
5.1 4.9
•
5 4.5 4.1
4.3
5.0
4
3
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..
GDP growth by sector Sector
2012 2013
2014 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14
1. Agriculture
4.0
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.2
3.3
3.8
3.2
3.4
3.7
2. Mining
1.5
1.3
-0.2
-0.2
-1.2
2.0
3.9
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
3. Manufacturing
5.7
5.6
4.9
5.9
5.8
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.0
4.6
4. Utilities
6.4
5.6
5.5
6.6
6.6
3.8
6.6
6.3
5.8
6.2
5. Construction
7.5
6.6
6.6
7.0
6.9
6.2
6.7
6.5
6.6
6.3
6. Trade & hospitality
8.1
5.9
4.6
6.5
6.5
6.1
4.8
4.8
4.5
4.2
10.0 10.2
9.3
10.0
11.5
9.9
10.3
10.2
9.5
9.0
7. Transport & Comm 8. Finance
7.2
7.6
6.0
8.4
8.1
7.6
6.8
6.2
6.2
6.0
9. Other Services
5.2
5.5
5.9
6.5
4.5
5.6
5.3
5.7
5.7
6.5
GDP/Total
6.2
5.8
5.0
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.7
5.2
5.1
5.0
Sources: BPS.
5
GDP growth by sector (2010 series) Sectors Agriculture, forestry & fishery Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing industry Electricity and gas Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling Construction Wholesale & retail trade, cars & motorcycles reparations Transportation and warehousing Accommodation, food and beverages Information and communication Finance and insurance Real estate Business services Public adm., defense, and compulsory social security Education Health and social activities Other services Gross domestic product
Share 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 3.53 3.96 4.59 4.20 4.18 13.38 4.10 4.29 3.02 1.74 0.55 9.82 3.79 6.26 5.62 4.49 4.63 21.02 8.09 5.69 10.06 5.23 5.57 1.08 6.74 4.73 3.34 4.06 3.05 0.07 6.84 9.02 6.56 6.11 6.97 9.88 9.08 9.66 5.40 4.71 4.84 13.38 7.14 8.31 7.11 8.38 8.00 4.27 6.31 6.86 6.64 6.80 5.91 3.14 14.86 10.02 12.28 10.39 10.02 3.50 5.68 6.97 9.54 9.09 4.93 3.88 8.72 7.68 7.41 6.54 5.00 2.79 8.37 9.24 7.44 7.91 9.81 1.57 7.89 6.43 2.13 2.38 2.49 3.84 11.79 6.68 8.22 8.20 6.29 3.29 5.90 9.00 7.97 7.83 8.01 1.03 7.94 8.22 5.76 6.41 8.92 1.56 6.38 6.17 6.03 5.58 5.02 100.00
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Percent
Low quality of growth, 2000-2014 10
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.0 8
Non-tradable
7.4
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.2
7.1
6.3 6
5.3 4.9
6.2
GDP
5.3
5.1 4
4.7
4.6 3.9
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.9
2.6
2
3.8
Tradable
3.4
3.7
3.6
2013
2014
2.2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
6
Percent of GDP
Peranan industri manufaktur terus merosot
Source: BPS.
GDP growth by expenditure (2010 series) 2010 2011
2012
2013 2014
Share 2014
Private consumption
4.26
5.05
5.49
5.38
5.14
56.07
Non-profit private consumption
-3.7
5.54
6.68
8.18 12.43
1.18
General government consumption Gross domestic fixed capital formation
3.99
5.52
4.53
6.93
1.98
9.54
6.69
8.86
9.13
5.28
4.12
32.57
Exports of goods and services
15.28 14.77
1.61
4.17
1.02
23.72
Less imports of goods and services
16.58 15.03
8
1.86
2.19
24.48
6.03
5.58
5.02
100.00
Gross domestic product
6.38
6.17
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
7
Indonesia is the world’s 10 largest producer of goods and services (Purchasing power parity (PPP), billions of international dollars, 2013) United States
16.800
China
16.158
India
6.774
Japan
4.624
Germany
3.493
Russian Federation
3.461
Brazil
3.012
France
2.437
Indonesia
2.388
United Kingdom
2.320
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
Asean GDP, PPP Billions of international dollars, 2013 Indonesia
2.388
Thailand
964
Malaysia
692
Philippines
643
Vietnam
475
Singapore
425
Cambodia
46
Lao PDR
33
Brunei Darussalam
30
Note: Data for Myanmar is not available Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
8
Berawal dari titik yang hampir sama dengan negara tetangga Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, Atlas method (current US$)
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Indonesia
Korea
China
Thailand
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
0
Malaysia
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on 5 March 2014.
Indonesia sempat lebih tinggi ketimbang China GDP per capita (current US$)
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
2011
2009
2007
2005
2001 2003
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1967 1969 1971 1973
0 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on 5 March 2014.
Indonesia
China
9
Baru memasuki lower-middle income GNI per capita, Atlas method, current US$, 2012 Singapore (23) Hong Kong (35) Korea (49) Russia (72) Brazil (79) Malaysia (86) Mexico (88) South Africa (96) Thailand (117) Timor-Leste (133) Indonesia (137) Philippines (153) India (162) Vietnam (163) Lao PDR (171) Cambodia (180)
47,210 36,560 22,670 12,700 11,630 9,820 9,640 7,610 5,210 3,620 3,420 2,500 ≥ US$ 12,616 1,580 1,550 High income 1,270 880
0
5,000
Income group: Economies are divided according to 2012 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $1,035 or less; lower middle income, $1,036 - $4,085; upper middle income, $4,086 $12,615; and high income,$12,616 or more.
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
(x) Rank Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on 5 March 2014.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Timor-Leste & Indonesia 20
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, and East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2013.
10
Indonesia sangat lama bertengger di low-income group Gross National Income per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 4,000
2011
2009
2007
Lowermiddle income
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
Low income
2005
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on 5 March 2014.
Welfare
Indonesia: avoiding the trap
RISING? Nusantara melaju
FLOATING? alon-alon asal kelakon
2014
2030
Source: Adopted from world Bank, Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap, Development Policy Review, May 2014.
11
Income per capita reached by countries when their demographic dividend ended, vs. Indonesia (2030)
Assuming 6 percent Real GDP growth 2013-2030
1982
1970
2000
1991
2030
Assuming 10 percent Real GDP growth 2013-2030
2030
Source: World Bank, “Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap,” Jakarta, May 2014, p.19.
Pengertian middle-income trap Suatu negara mengalami perangkap pendapatan menengah (middle-income trap) jika sudah berada di kelompok pendapatan menengah berdasarkan ukuran pendapatan per kapita, tetapi tak kunjung menembus ke kelompok pendapatan tinggi. Bank Dunia membagi perekonomian menurut kelompok pendapatan dengan menggunakan Gross National Income (GNI) per kapita tahun 2012 yang dihitung berdasarkan World Bank Atlas method sebagai berikut: •
berpendapatan rendah, $1,035 atau kurang;
•
berpendapatan menengah bawah, $1,036 - $4,085;
•
berpendapatan menengah atas, $4,086 - $12,615; dan
•
berpendapatan tinggi, $12,616 atau lebih.
12
Ciri negara yang alami middle-income trap Menurut Asian Development Bank (ADB), ciri-ciri negara yang masuk perangkap middle-income trap adalah: 1)
nisbah investasi (investment to GDP ratio) rendah,
2)
pertumbuhan industri manufaktur rendah;
3)
diversifikasi industri terbatas; dan
4)
kondisi pasar kerja buruk.
Negara Amerika Latin tak berhasil mengatasi ciri pertama, sebaliknya negara Asia Timur yang tak mengalami middleincome trap memenuhinya. Berdasarkan ciri pertama ini, tampaknya China juga akan memenuhinya. Perekonomian Asia Timur yang telah berhasil masuk ke kelompok negara berpendapatan tinggi adalah Singapura, Hong Kong, Korea, dan Taiwan. Sementara itu, negara di Amerika Latin masih mengalami middle-income trap.
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
China
50 45
40 35 30
25 20 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
15
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
13
Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Korea
8,000
7,516
Russia
5,209
Malaysia
Brazil Thailand Vietnam India Indonesia Philippines Cambodia Myanmar
1,077
2,733 3,298
2,438 1,750 2,316 1,516 1,073
335 684 392 680 416 647 521 164 36 110 66
12,000
10,162
6,311
Singapore
China
10,000
8,404
6,486
4,246
2011
2001
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Bagian III Sumber Daya Manusia, Perlindungan Sosial, dan Teknologi
14
Human development index (HDI): rank & value Rank 2013 (2012) Country 1 (1) 5 (5) 9 (12) 15 (15) 15 (16) 17 (16) 30 (30) 57 (57) 62 (62) 79 (80) 89 (89) 91 (93) 108 (108) 117 (118) 118 (119) 121 (121) 128 (129) 135 (135) 136 (137) 139 (139) 150 (150) 187 (186)
Norway United States Singapore Hong Kong Korea Japan Brunei Darussalam Russian Federation Malaysia Brazil Thailand China Indonesia Philippines South Africa Viet Nam Timor-Leste India Cambodia Lao, PDR Myanmar Niger
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.793 0.825 .. 0.698 0.628 0.772 0.740 .. 0.577 0.545 0.503 0.423 0.471 0.566 0.569 0.463 .. 0.639 0.251 0.340 0.328 0.191
0.841 0.858 0.744 0.775 0.731 0.817 0.786 0.729 0.641 0.612 0.572 0.502 0.528 0.591 0.619 0.476 .. 0.431 0.403 0.395 0.347 0.218
0.910 0.883 0.800 0.810 0.819 0.858 0.822 0.717 0.717 0.682 0.649 0.591 0.609 0.619 0.628 0.563 0.465 0.483 0.466 0.473 0.421 0.262
0.935 0.897 0.840 0.839 0.856 0.873 0.838 0.750 0.747 0.705 0.685 0.645 0.640 0.638 0.608 0.598 0.505 0.527 0.536 0.511 0.472 0.293
0.939 0.908 0.894 0.882 0.882 0.884 0.844 0.773 0.766 0.739 0.715 0.701 0.671 0.651 0.638 0.629 0.606 0.570 0.571 0.549 0.514 0.323
0.941 0.911 0.896 0.886 0.886 0.887 0.846 0.775 0.768 0.740 0.716 0.710 0.678 0.652 0.646 0.632 0.606 0.581 0.575 0.560 0.517 0.328
0.943 0.912 0.899 0.889 0.888 0.888 0.852 0.777 0.770 0.742 0.720 0.715 0.681 0.656 0.654 0.635 0.616 0.583 0.579 0.565 0.520 0.335
0.944 0.914 0.901 0.891 0.891 0.890 0.852 0.778 0.773 0.744 0.722 0.719 0.684 0.660 0.658 0.638 0.620 0.586 0.584 0.569 0.524 0.337
Source: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2014.
Sesat pikir luar biasa Nyata-nyata bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang No.20/2003 Pasal 4 ayat 1: Perlakuan diskriminatif antara sekolah/guru negeri. Harusnya pendekatan fungsi, bukan status. Dikerangkeng oleh birokrasi pendidikan dan pengkotakkotakan: guru matematika di madrasah dibina oleh Kemenag, di pendidikan umum oleh Kemendikbud. Kurang guru tapi IKIP dikerdilkan Pendekatan input, bukannya output Kerap jalan pintas Menyamakan guru dan dosen: kementerian Pendidikan Dasar-Menengah dan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi dan Ristek
15
Pendekatan output ketimbang input
Pemerintah tidak pernah berani menetapkan output yang terukur. UU hanya mencantumkan tujuan yang bersifat normatif. Output = f (Family, Teachers, School inputs, Peers, Innate ability) Output: Math, Science, Reading, Problem solving
Knowledge & skills performance of the world’s 15-year-olds students based on PISA surveys 2012 Rank
Mathematics
Reading
Science
Country/Economy
2009
2012
2009
2012
2009
2012
1
Shanghai-China
600
613
556
570
575
580
2
Singapore
562
573
526
542
542
551
3
Hong Kong-China
555
561
533
545
549
555
4
Chinese Taipei
543
560
495
523
520
523
5
Korea
546
554
539
536
538
538
7
(n=65)
Japan
529
536
520
538
539
547
17
Viet Nam
n.a.
511
n.a.
508
n.a.
528
50
Thailand
419
427
421
441
425
444
52
Malaysia
n.a.
421
n.a.
441
n.a.
420
64
Indonesia
371
375
402
396
383
382
65
Peru
365
368
370
384
369
373
Source: OECD, PISA (The Programme for International Student Assessment) database.
16
Indonesia: deceleration in mathematics performance Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean mathematics performance in PISA 2003 through 2012 Coef. Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Serbia Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay
0,3 -0,7 -0,2 m 0,1 0,3 0,7 0,4 m 0,2 m -2,3 0,3 0,1 0,0 m m 1,3 0,2 0,3 m -0,6
S.E. (0,21) (0,26) (0,51) m (0,20) (0,25) (0,37) (0,14) m (0,31) m (0,21) (0,54) (0,23) (0,45) m m (0,52) (0,17) (0,20) m (0,18)
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Indonesia: deceleration in reading performance Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean reading performance in PISA 2003 through 2012 Coef. Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Serbia Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay
0,1 -0,4 -0,6 m -0,4 -0,4 0,6 0,8 m -0,1 0,0 -2,4 1,2 0,8 -2,0 m m 1,6 0,7 -0,1 m 0,2
S.E. (0,19) (0,25) (0,65) m (0,18) (0,18) (0,55) (0,23) m (0,51) (0,31) (0,47) (0,28) (0,19) (0,59) m m (0,60) (0,20) (0,30) m (0,28)
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
17
Indonesia: juga kemunduran dalam science Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012 Change between 2006 and 2012 (PISA 2012 - PISA 2006) Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Serbia Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay
Score dif. 13 -12 -13 m 13 3 8 10 m -2 m 34 20 7 9 m m -9 23 13 m -12
Change between 2009 and 2012 (PISA 2012 - PISA 2009)
S.E. Score dif. (5,0) 6 (7,7) -1 (5,5) -6 m 24 (5,4) 8 (6,5) 5 (5,1) 4 (3,8) 10 m -3 (3,8) 9 m 4 (3,7) 4 (6,4) 11 (5,8) 8 (5,8) 2 m 6 m 10 (5,5) 3 (5,1) 19 (5,7) -3 m (5,2)
10 -11
Annualised change in science across PISA assessments
S.E. (4,3) (5,7) (5,1) (4,8) (4,6) (5,3) (4,4) (2,4) (4,5) (3,0) (5,4) (2,3) (5,1) (4,8) (4,6) (4,3) (2,9) (4,0) (4,6) (4,8)
Annual change 2,1 -1,9 -2,1 8,1 2,0 0,4 1,3 1,6 -1,4 -0,3 1,3 5,4 3,4 1,0 1,5 1,8 3,3 -1,5 3,9 2,2
S.E. (0,85) (1,33) (0,91) (1,56) (0,90) (1,03) (0,94) (0,64) (1,96) (0,64) (1,94) (0,61) (1,08) (1,00) (1,03) (1,50) (0,93) (0,92) (0,82) (1,03)
(5,4) (4,3)
5,1 -2,1
(2,75) (0,91)
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
Indonesia: juga mengalami kemunduran dalam science Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012
OECD average 2006 OECD average 2009 Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay
PISA 2006 Mean S.E. score 498 (0,5) m m 542 (2,5) 393 (5,7) 422 (2,8) m m 490 (3,0) 522 (4,1) 488 (2,8) 511 (1,1) m m 412 (1,1) m m 349 (0,9) 418 (4,2) 479 (3,7) m m m m 532 (3,6) 421 (2,1) 386 (3,0) m m 428 (2,7)
PISA 2009 Mean S.E. score 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 549 (2,8) 383 (3,8) 415 (3,5) 400 (3,1) 494 (3,1) 520 (3,4) 491 (2,9) 511 (1,0) 422 (2,7) 401 (2,0) 369 (3,5) 379 (0,9) 428 (3,4) 478 (3,3) 575 (2,3) 542 (1,4) 520 (2,6) 425 (3,0) 401 (2,7) 429 (3,3) 427 (2,6)
PISA 2012 Mean S.E. score 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 555 (2,6) 382 (3,8) 409 (3,1) 425 (3,0) 502 (2,8) 525 (3,5) 496 (2,6) 521 (0,8) 420 (3,0) 410 (1,1) 373 (3,6) 384 (0,7) 439 (3,3) 486 (2,9) 580 (3,0) 551 (1,5) 523 (2,3) 444 (2,9) 398 (3,5) 439 (3,8) 416 (2,8)
Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - © OECD 2013
18
Teachers’ salaries and mathematics performance
Source: OECD, PISA Results in Focus: What 15-year-olds know and what they can do with what they know, Paris, 2013: 27.
Social protection index (n=35) and SP expenditure as % of GDP Social Protection Index Japan (1) Korea (4) Singapore (6) Malaysia (8) Timor-Leste (11) China (12) Vietnam (13) Sri Lanka (15) Thailand (16) Philippines (17) India (23) Pakistan (24) Indonesia (27) Bangladesh (28) Papua New Guinea (35)
SP expenditure as % of GDP 0.416
0.200 0.169 0.155 0.140 0.139 0.137 0.121 0.119 0.085 0.051 0.047 0.044 0.043 0.005
Japan (1) Korea (5) Timor-Leste (8) China (9) Vietnam (11) Malaysia (13) Thailand (14) Singapore (15) Sri Lanka (16) Philippines (18) India (24) Bangladesh (25) Pakistan (27) Indonesia (28) Papua New Guinea (35)
19.2 7.9 5.9
5.4 4.7 3.7
3.6 3.5 3.2
2.5 1.7 1.4
1.3 1.2 0.1
( ) Rank. Sources: Asian Development Bank, The Social Protection Index: Assessing Results for Asia and the Pacific, 2013.
19
Masa depan makin suram Masa depan kemajuan bangsa ditentukan oleh kemajuan teknologi Bukan sekedar teknologi, melainkan teknologi masa depan Teknologi masa depan: • Nanotechnology • Biotechnology • ICT • Green technology
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank
20
Switzerland (1) Sweden (2) Singapore (3) Finland (4) UK (5) Netherlands (6) Denmark (7) Hong Kong (8) Ireland (9) USA (10) Norway (14) Germany (15) Israel (17) Korea (21) Japan (25) Malaysia (32) China (34) UAE (37) Bahrain (41) Oman (47) Saudi Arabia (48) Russian Federation… Brunei Darussalam… South Africa (54) Thailand (57) Brazil (58) India (64) Viet Nam (76) Philippines (95) Indonesia (100) Sudan (141)
16.8
68.2 64.8 63.5 61.8 61.2 60.5 59.9 58.7 58.7 57.7 56.4 56.2 56.0 53.9 51.7 45.9 45.4 44.4 41.1 39.5 39.3 37.9 37.7 37.4 36.9 36.6 35.7 33.9 29.0 28.1
R&D as a percentage of gross domestic product
Source: Battelle, 2014 Global R&D Funding Forecast, December 2013: 6.
Global innovation index 2012 (n=141)
Source: INSEAD, The Global Innovation Index 2012.
21
Patent applications as % of China’s owned (2012 = 535,313), Indonesia (2011) = 541 (0.13) Patent applications, residents Patent applications are worldwide patent applications filed through the Patent Cooperation Treaty procedure or with a national patent office for exclusive rights for an invention--a product or process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem. A patent provides protection for the invention to the owner of the patent for a limited period, generally 20 years.
7
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2004
2005
India
2006
2007
Malaysia
2008
Singapore
2009
2010
Thailand
2011
2012
Indonesia
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
H index, 1996-2012
The h-index is an index that attempts to both the productivity and impact of the published work of a scientist or scholar. The index is based on the set of the scientist's most cited papers and the number of citations that they have received in other publications. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindex#Definition_and_purpose
( ) Rank Source: http://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?area=0&category=0®ion=all&year=all&order=it&min=0&min_type=it
22
Indonesia tidak pernah mengalami default
Bagian III Perkuat Jantung dan Peredaran Darah
23
The longest deteriorating period of exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah since 9/2011
Highest 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460
8,500
21-Jan
Sep-24
23-May
21-Jan
18-Sep
20-May
18-Jan
17-Sep
16-May
17-Jan
22-Sep
19-May
19-Jan
22-Sep
24-May
22-Jan
17-Sep
May-20
Jan-19
10-Sep
14-May
14-Jan
30-Aug
2-May
4-Jan
30-Aug
1-May
29-Dec
29-Aug
2-May
29-Dec
26-Aug
8,000
8-Apr
(Rupiah per US$)
13 April 2015 = 12,945
9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500
24-26 Nov 2008 = 12,400
16 March 2015 = 13,237
•
Source: Bank Indonesia
Rupiah menguat terhadap mata uang ini ….
24
US$ billions
Forex reserves dipped by US$32 billions in 2 years, but in last 19 months have shown increasing trend 140 124.6 (Aug'11)
120
115.5 (Feb'15)
100
111.6 (Mar'15) 92.7 (Jul'13)
80 60.6 (Jul'08)
60 50.2 (Nov'08)
40
0
Jan'04 Apr Jul Oct Jan'5 Apr Jul Oct Jan'06 Apr Jul Oct Jan'07 Apr Jul Oct Jan'08 Apr Jul Oct Jan'09 Apr Jul Oct Jan'10 Apr Jul Oct Jan'11 Apr Jul Oct Jan'12 Apr Jul Oct Jan'13 Apr Jul Oct Jan'14 Apr Jul Oct Jan'15
20
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Modal asing tetap deras masuk ke Indonesia, bahkan mencetak rekor baru US$ billions
Direct investment (net)
Portfolio investment (net)
Total
45 41.1
40 35 30 25.8
24.3
25
22.9
23.1
20 15.3
15
13.0 10.3
13.2 11.1
9.2
10 5
3.4
5.2 1.8
15.2
13.7
11.5
12.2 10.9
3.8
2.6
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Bank Indonesia.
25
Indonesia sudah 2 tahun berturut-turut masuk Top 20 host economies untuk FDI 2013, Billions of US dollars 1. United States 2. China 3. Russian Federation 4. Hong Kong, China 5.Brazil 6.Singapore 7. Canada 8. Australia 9. Spain 10. Mexico 11. United Kingdom 12. Ireland 13. Luxerbourg 14. India 15. Germany 16. Netherlands 17. Chile 18. Indonesia 19. Colombia 20. Italy
188 124 79 77
64 64 62 50
Developed economies Developing economies
39 38 37 36 30 28 27 24 20 18 17 17
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page xv.
Untuk jangka menengah makin atraktif: TNC’s top prospective host economies for 2014-16
Developing economies Developed economies
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page 28.
26
The Economist: Indonesia is the third investment destination in Asia (2013) 73.8
China
India
54.1
Indonesia
53.5
Thailand
38.6
Vietnam
37.7
5.0
32.0
13.9
27.1
43.0
Malaysia
0.7
20.6
18.6
38.5
0.8
16.3
33.9
2.2
25.2
32.8
2.4
26.2
3.3
Increase investment
Still in the market, but will not invest more
Have no plan to invest
Reduce investment
Source: The Economist, Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2013.
First time climbing to the top in 2013, Indonesia beats China in Japanese FDI Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese Manufacturing Companies over the medium term (next 3 years or so) Rank
1997
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
India1st
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
Indonesia
India
2nd
USA
Thailand
Thailand
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
Indonesia
3rd
Indonesia
USA
India
Thailand
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Thailand
Indonesia
Thailand
China
4th
Thailand
Vietnam
Vietnam
Viet nam
Thailand
Thailand
Thailand
Vietnam
Thailand
China
Thailand
5th
India
India
USA
USA
USA
Russia
Brazil
Indonesia
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
6th
Vetnam
Indonesia
Russia
Russia
Russia
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Brazil
Brazil
Mexico
7th
Philippines
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Brazil
Brazil
Russia
Russia
Mexico
Mexico
Brazil
8th
Malaysia
Taiwan
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Indonesia
USA
USA
Russia
Myanmar
USA
9th
Brazil
Malaysia
Taiwan
Brazil
Indonesia
Korea
Korea
Malaysia
Myanmar
Russia
Russia
10th
Taiwan
Russia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan
Malaysia
Taiwan
USA
USA
Myanmar
Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies,” various issues.
27
IHSG 2014 ditutup dgn pertumbuhan tertinggi keempat di Asia, nyaris dengan rekor baru (Jakarta composite index) 5,400
On December 30, 2014 (5,226.947): year to date 22.29% year on year 22.29% New record = 5,246.483 (September 8, 2014) Previous highest = 5,214.976 (May 20, 2013)
5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
Sep-17
6-Feb
28-May
17-Oct
27-Jun
13-Mar
2-Aug
22-Nov
4-Jan
19-Apr
1-Jun
22-Sep
16-Feb
9-Jul
28-Oct
3-Dec
25-Mar
Apr-30
Aug-14
Jan-12
2-Jun
15-Sep
13-Feb
4-Jul
19-Oct
16-Mar
9-Aug
30-Nov
5-Jan
26-Apr
3-Jun
16-Sep
22-Oct
15-Feb
800
IHSG 2014 ditutup dgn pertumbuhan tertinggi ke-4 di Asia, sudah cetak rekor baru 12X tahun ini (Jakarta composite index) 5,600
On April 13, 2015 (5,447.409): year to date 4.22% year on year 13.10% New record = 5,514.787 (March 6, 2015) Previous highest = 5,477.831 (March 2, 2015)
5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
10-Apr
18-Dec
Sep-04
9-May
17-Jan
3-Jun
24-Sep
19-Oct
13-Feb
2-Jul
13-Mar
25-Nov
4-Aug
15-Apr
2-Sep
28-Dec
27-Jan
18-May
Oct-06
Jun-12
Feb-20
4-Jul
29-Oct
17-Mar
16-Nov
30-Jul
11-Apr
20-Dec
30-Aug
10-May
18-Jan
26-Sep
9-Jun
22-Oct
17-Feb
800
28
Global stock markets: Indonesia mencuat lagi As of April 2nd 2014 (year to date), in $ terms Indonesia (IDX) Pakistan (KSE) Egypt (Case 30) Greece (Athex Comp) Denmark (OMXCB) Italy (FTSE/MIB) India (BSE) Thailand (SET) Turkey (BIST) Brazil (BVSP) Singapore Emerging Markets (MSCI) United States (DJIA) Malaysia South Korea (KOSPI) Chile (IGPA) Argentina (MERV) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Mexico (IPC) China (SSEA) Hungary (BUX) Japan (Nikkei 225) Russia (RTS, $ terms)
22.8
18.5 16.5 14.3 14.3 14.3 10.2 9.1 5.1 4.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -2.5 -2.6 -3.4 -4.2 -5.0 -6.3 -7.0 -15.3 Sources: The Economist.
Global stock markets: Indonesia emerging again As of December 29th 2014 (year to date), in $ terms 45.9 31.4 28.3 25.6 19.4 18.5 15.1 15.0
8.8 6.5 1.9 1.5 -2.0 -4.4 -5.1 -7.8 -7.9 -9.2 -9.9 -10.2 -10.8 -11.3 -13.8 -25.8 -37.7 -44.9
China (SSEA) Pakistan (KSE) Egypt (Case 30) India (BSE) Argentina (MERV) Indonesia (IDX) Turkey (BIST) Thailand (SET) United States (DJIA) Denmark (OMXCB) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Singapore (STI) South Africa (JSE AS) Emerging markets (MSCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Britain (FTSE 100) South Korea (KOSPI) Euro area (FTSE Euro 100) Mexico (IPC) Chile (IGPA) Italy (FTSE/MIB) Malaysia (KLSE) Brazil (BVSP) Hungary (BUX) Greece (Athex Comp) Russia (RTS, $ terms)
Sources: The Economist.
29
Global stock markets: Indonesia emerging again As of April 8th 2015 (% change on December 31st 2014, in $ terms) 25.9 25.0 23.6 15.1 13.3 11.2 10.6 9.5 8.3 7.2 6.6 5.9 5.8 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 -7.7 -12.9 -17.1
Argentina (MERV) Russia (RTS, $ terms) China (SSEA) Denmark (OMXCB) Japan (Nikkei 225) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Italy (FTSE/MIB) Germany (DAX) South Korea (KOSPI) France (CAC 40) Euro area (FTSEEuro 100) Switzerland (SMI) India (BSE) Thailand (SET) South Africa (JSE AS) Australia (All Ord.) Mexico (IPC) Malaysia (KLSE) Britain (FTSE 100) Singapore (STI) United States (DJIA) Indonesia (JSX) Brazil (BVSP) Turkey (BIST) Greece (Athex Comp)
Sources: The Economist.
Utang pemerintah terkendali, nisbah utang turun terus, naik sedikit tahun 2013 % of GDP
100
Securities (RHS)
Loan (RHS)
Debt to GDP Ratio (LHS)
97.9
90 69
80
61
64
69
69
62
62
151
67
63
131
59
141
64
73
77
82
71
71
85
150
100
104
68
200
136
118
40
20
58 58
65
60
30
64
69
70
50
US$ billion
26.2 26.5
83
24.0
50
10 0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
* June 30. Source: Bank Indonesia.
30
Debt to GDP ratio, 2012
Central government debt, total (% of GDP). Debt is the entire stock of direct government fixed-term contractual obligations to others outstanding on a particular date. It includes domestic and foreign liabilities such as currency and money deposits, securities other than shares, and loans. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced by the amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. Because debt is a stock rather than a flow, it is measured as of a given date, usually the last day of the fiscal year. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators, downloaded on June 3, 2014.
Asing percaya prospek Indonesia cerah, lebih banyak pegang SUN jangka panjang Holders of tradable domestic government securities (percent)
34 44
37
37
34
31
Foreign ownership of domestic government securities by maturity (percent)
4
10
12
25 23
33
36
33
30
34
31
31
33
33
36
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
22
8
5
7
19
18
18
28
32
33
45
44
41
2012
2013
25
21 25
38 49
46
38
19
2009 Foreign
Domestic Non-Banks
Domestic Banks
2009
2010
>10 years
2011 >5-10 years
>1-5 years
2014* 0-1 year
* June 30. Source: Bank Indonesia and Ministry of Finance.
31
Global bond issuance On January 8th, 2014 (January 7th, New York Time), The Government of the Republic of Indonesia issued USD denominated bonds: •
Series: RI0124 (Tenor: 10 years; Pricing Date: 7 Januari 2014; Nominal Received: US$2.00 Billion; Coupon Rate: 5.875%; Yield: 5.950%; Price: 99.441%; Maturity date: 15 Januari 2024; Settlement date/issuance: 15 Januari 2014)
•
Series: RI0144 (Tenor: 30 years; Pricing Date: 7 Januari 2014; Nominal Received: US$2.00 Billion; Coupon Rate: 6.750%; Yield: 6.850%; Price: 98.734%; Maturity date: 15 Januari 2044; Settlement date/issuance: 15 Januari 2014)
The total order book for RI0124 and RI0144 is amounted to US$17,5 billion. This transaction resulted in oversubscription as much as 4,4 times. Source: Bank Indonesia.
Indonesia tidak pernah mengalami default
32
Penetrasi kredit di Indonesia masih sangat rendah
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Financial inclusion index
Financial Inclusion Index: The percentage of respondents who report having an account (by themselves or together with someone else). For 2011, this can be an account at a bank or another type of financial institution, and for 2014 this can be a mobile account as well (see yearspecific definitions for details) (% age 15+). [ts: data are available for multiple waves]. * Developing only. Source: World Bank, Global Findex Database (http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Views/reports/tableview.aspx)
33
Stock market capitalization
* 2003 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Size of local currency bonds market: Indonesia is still lagging behind in the long-term financing (% of GDP, December 2014) 250 200
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
17
150
100
203 72
43 32
19
50
57
50 50
61
30 39
0
23
18
35
33
6 31
0 22
2
13
Source: Asian Development Bank, Asian Bond Monitor, March 2015.
34
Size of total local currency bonds market: Indonesia experienced a setback (% of GDP) December 2000
250
December 2014
220
200
150 122 104
102
100 74
50
82
73
76
69 51
48 27
31 37
35
37
22
17
15
0
0
Source: Asian Development Bank.
Bagian IV Ketimpangan
35
Buku yang menyita banyak perhatian
Kuznets curve The Kuznets ratio is a measurement of the ratio of income going to the highestearning households (usually defined by the upper 20%) and the income going to the lowestearning households,[6] which is commonly measured by either the lowest 20% or lowest 40% of income. Comparing 20% to 20%, perfect equality is expressed as 1; 20% to 40% changes this value to 0.5.
36
The fall and rise of extreme inequality over the course of the past century
Source: Piketty, 2014
Piketty’s estimates of global r and g over the long haul
37
Perkembangan perolehan top 10 percent berbentuk huruf U (U shape) Data terbaru tahun 2012, berdasarkan perhitungan Emmanuel Saez (September 2013), perolehan kelompok pendapatan 10 persen tertinggi telah melampaui 50 persen (50.4%).
In August 15, 1971, Nixon announces the end of gold to dollar convertibility
Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, oleh John Cassidy (2014) http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/03/piketty-looks-at-inequality-in-six-charts.html
Selisih antara total income dan wage income berupa pendapatan dari modal Data terbaru tahun 2012, berdasarkan perhitungan Emmanuel Saez (September 2013), perolehan kelompok pendapatan 1 persen tertinggi telah mencapai 23,5 persen.
Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, oleh John Cassidy (2014) http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/03/piketty-looks-at-inequality-in-six-charts.html
38
Ketimpangan di Amerika Serikat memang tak ada duanya di dunia
Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, oleh John Cassidy (2014) http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/03/piketty-looks-at-inequality-in-six-charts.html
Indonesia masuk dalam kajian Piketty. Ternyata lebih buruk dari China dan India
Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, oleh John Cassidy (2014) http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/03/piketty-looks-at-inequality-in-six-charts.html
39
Tahapan kapitalisme Kapitalisme pertanian tatkala surplus pertanian kian membesar sehingga barter tak lagi mampu menyerap exchange yang semakin meluas transaction through the market. Kapitalisme perdagangan (merchantilism) di masa kolonisasi. Kapitalisme indutri I: pemerasan buruh oleh industriawan pasca revolusi industri Kapitalisme industri II: pemerasan buruh lintasNegara oleh TNCs Financially-driven capitalism: globalisasi segalanya dengan mobilitas modal amat deras
We are the 99 percent vs the Tea Party “We are the 99 percent” movement has changed the political landscape: “A huge
Source: http://sandiegofreepress.org/2014/05/capitalism-a-comparison-of-marx-andpiketty/we-are-the-99-percent-2/#.U3jv92r-Kpo
march in support of the “Occupy Wall Street/We are the 99 percent” movement, called by unions and MoveOn, filled Manhattan streets today (October 5, 2011). According to the Guardian: “Thousands of protesters – with conservative estimates putting the number at around 15,000 – marched through Lower Manhattan, ….” .
Source: http://coloneldespard.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/%E2 %80%9Cwe-are-the-99-percent%E2%80%9Dmovement-has-changed-the-political-landscape
photo by Twitpic.com
40
Russell Brand about inequality
http://www.upworthy.com/russell-brands-brilliant-quote-about-inequality-in-one-easily-shareable-image
We used to grow together, now we’re growing apart Real Family Income Growth Adjusted for Inflation
Poorest 20%
Richest Top 20% 5%
Poorest 20%
Richest 20%
Top 5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Based on mean family income.
41
US: Real income growth by groups, 1993-2012 America’s great divide
Source: Emmanuel Saez, “Striking it Richer: The Evaluation of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2012 preliminary estimates),” UC Berkeley, September 3, 2013.
Who own what in the USA Bottom 90%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Stocks (%)
15
84
42
Bonds (%)
9
90
55
Business Assets (%)
7
92
71
Assets
42
US economy: “the North Star” The economy hummed along, but many Americans, the ones politicians typically refer to as the middle class, stopped feeling the benefits.
Source: http://swampland.time.com/2013/02/04/the-most-important-chart-in-american-politics/#ixzz2K8Y0orA0
Ketimpangan “pendapatan” memburuk gini index
Trendline-polynomial
0.42
0.41 0.41
0.40
0.41
0.41
0.38
0.38
0.38 0.363
0.36 0.34
0.363
0.355
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.34
0.35
0.329
0.37
0.35
0.33
0.32
0.30
0.32
0.32
0.32 0.32
0.308 0.30
0.28 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2000 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1980 1978 1976 1969 1964 Sources: (1) BPS for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005,2007-2013 see http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php?kat=1&tabel=1&daftar=1&id_subyek=23¬ab=6; for 2004 and 2006 see BPS, Key Indicators of Indonesia, Special Edition 2007. (2) Satish Chandra Mishra, “ Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes and Policy Response, Strategic Asia, March 2009: 17 for 1976, 1984, 1987, 1990, and 1993.
43
Income distribution (%) 49
50 42
40
40
40 34
30 22
20
19
21
17
1963 1964 1967 1970 1976 1978 1980 1981 1984 1987 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
10
20% top
40% Middle
40% Bottom
Source: BPS, and Satish Chandra Mishra, “Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes, and Policy Response,” Strategic Asia, 2009: 14.
Percent
Penguasaan top-20 naik terus 50 Trendline-polynomial
45
40
1963 1964 1967 1970 1976 1978 1980 1981 1984 1987 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
35
Source: BPS, and Satish Chandra Mishra, “Economic Inequality in Indonesia: Trends, Causes, and Policy Response,” Strategic Asia, 2009: 14.
44
Poorer households had lower than average growth in their real consumption over 2002-12
Annual growth rate %
10.0 8.0
6.0
4.87 = Average growth for all households
4.0 2.0 0.0 1
15
29
43
57
71
85
99
Percentiles Source: Badan Pusat Statistik, Susenas 2008-2012.
2008-2012 growth
Growth in mean
Koefisien Gini pemilikan tanah lebih buruk lagi
45
Poverty, unemployment, and growth
7,0 17,4
16,7
17,8
16,6
16,0
15,4 14,2
15 11,5
10
8,1
GDP growth (RHS)
11,2
9,9
9,1
10,3
9,3
8,5
6,0
13,3
8,1
6,1
12,4
11,8 11,4 11,3
5,0 7,4
6,8
6,3
6,0
5,8
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
3,0
2003
0
2002
4,0
2001
5
2000
Percent
20 19,1 18,4 18,2
Unemployment (LHS)
2011
Percent
Poverty (LHS)
Source: BPS.
Percent of population
Jumlah penduduk miskin Sep. 2013 = 28,55 juta
60
60.0
Trendline-polynomial
50
40
30 24.2
20
17.8 11.4 11.3
11.3
2014**
2013*
2012*
2011*
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1980
1978
1976
0
1970
10
* March and September average ** March Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
46
Hampir dua pertiga penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas yang bekerja berpendidikan SMP ke bawah Pendidikan tertinggi yang ditamatkan
2014 2014 kumulatif
2012
2013
SD ke bawah
49.8
48.5
46.8
46.8
Sekolah Menengah Pertama
17.7
17.5
17.8
64.6
Sekolah Menengah Atas
15.1
15.4
16.0
80.6
Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan
8.3
8.9
9.2
89.9
Diploma I/II/III
2.7
2.8
2.6
92.5
Universitas
6.4
6.9
7.5
100.0
* March and September average ** March Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..
Working population by sector
Sector
2012
2013
2014
Agriculture
36.8
35.3
34.6
Manufacturing industry
12.5
12.9
13.0
5.4
6.0
6.1
21.3
21.8
21.8
Transportation, storage, and communication
4.6
4.5
4.5
Finance
2.4
2.6
2.7
15.4
15.3
15.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
Construction Trade
Community, social, and personal services Others* Total Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
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Contribution to GDP and labor absorption and GDP growth by sector, 2013* Share of Share of GDP labor
Sector
GDP growth
Agriculture
14.43
34.70
3.54
Mining and quarrying
11.24
1.32
1.34
Manufacturing industry
23.69
13.20
5.56
Electricity, gas, and water supply
0.77
0.22
5.58
Construction
9.99
5.85
6.57
14.33
21.59
5.93
Transport and communication
7.01
4.57
10.19
Financial, ownership and business services
7.52
2.64
7.56
11.02
15.91
5.46
100.00
100.00
5.78
Trade, hotel, and restaurant
Services Total * Simple average of February and August for labor absorption. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Distribution of workers by sector (%) Sector
2004
2009*
2014**
Agriculture
44.5
41.1
34.6
1.1
1.1
1.4
11.2
11.8
13.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
Mining and quarrying Manufacturing industry Electricity, gas, and water supply Construction
4.7
4.7
6.1
20.2
20.7
21.8
Transport and communication
5.7
5.7
4.5
Financial, ownership and business services
1.2
1.4
2.7
11.1 100.0 97.0
13.2 100.0 106.6
15.6 100.0 118.2
70.6 29.4
69.9 30.1
59.8 40.2
Trade, hotel, and restaurant
Social services Total (million) Memo: Informal workers Formal workers * Simple average of February and August Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
** February.
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Labor productivity differences across sectors remain significant (Sector labor productivity (real terms) compared with labor productivity in agriculture)
Sector
2000-03 2005-08 2009-12
Agriculture
1.0
1.0
1.0
Low-end services
2.4
2.5
2.2
Manufacturing industries
5.7
5.8
5.0
Transport & communication
2.8
3.5
5.5
Financial services
21.5
20.5
14.6
Mining and quarrying
46.8
26.7
18.0
Source: World Bank, Indonesia: Avoiding The Trap, Development Policy Review 2014, p. 6.
Profile of workforce by job status
Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.
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Low quality of growth, 2000-2013 Percent
10
Non-tradable
8 6
GDP
4 Tradable
2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: BPS.
Peranan industri manufaktur terus merosot Percent of GDP 30
29.0 29 28
27.8
27 26 25 24
23
23.7 23.6
22
* First quarter Source: BPS.
50
Percent
Peranan wilayah dalam pembentukan PDB 100
3.3 4.2
3.8 4.5
3.3 4.7
9.5
9.2
9.3
22.4
22.7
23.8
60.6
59.9
58.9
80
60
40
20
0 2004 Jawa+Bali
2009 Sumatera
Kalimantan
2012 Sulawesi
Others
Source: BPS.
Belakangan, Jawa-Sumatera kian mendominasi dalam PDB Nasional Komposisi pembentukan PDB nasional berdasarkan pulau (persen) 100
18.9
18.6
18.2
17.6
23.6
23.7
23.8
23.9
57.6
57.7
58.0
58.5
2013
2014*
80
60
40
20
0
2011
2012 Jawa
Sumatera
Others
* First quarter Source: BPS.
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Manufaktur terkonsentrasi di Jawa+Bali
Source: BPS.
Distribusi jumlah rekening simpanan berdasarkan nilai nominal (Rupiah, May 2014)
Nominal Simpanan ≤ 100 juta
% Rekening 97.78
100 Juta - ≤ 200 juta
1.01
200 juta - ≤ 500 juta
0.67
500 juta - ≤ 1 miliar
0.28
1 miliar - ≤ 2 miliar
0.14
2 miliar - ≤ 5 miliar
0.08
> 5 miliar
0.04
Source: LPS – Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation
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