Hoe onzeker is de toekomst? Prof. dr. Wim J. de Ridder 28 september 2011
!!! DEZE PRESENTATIE
IS EIGENDOM VAN PROF. DR.
WIM J. DE RIDDER EN IS SLECHTS VOOR PERSOONLIJK GEBRUIK DOOR DE ONTVANGER
BESTEMD
!!!
Intelligence looks for what is known to solve problems.
Intelligence looks for what is known to solve problems. Creativity looks for what is unknown to discover possibilities.
Thomas Edison in 1879 "We maken elektrisch licht zo goedkoop dat alleen de rijken nog kaarsen branden."
Thomas Edison's eerste lamp 1879
Beoordeling van de lamp van Edison • Goed genoeg voor onze vrienden in andere werelddelen, maar de lamp heeft geen betekenis voor de praktijk of de wetenschap. – British Parliamentary Committee, over de lamp van Edison in 1878
• Iedereen die zich in dit product verdiept, ziet dat het een pijnlijke mislukking is. – Henry Morton, president van the Stevens Institute of Technology in 1880
Thomas Edison in 1931 I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.
Deel 1: 2020, the end of an era Installation Irruption
Crash
Frenzy
Deployment Synergy
Maturity
1771
Panic 1797
• Formation of Mfg. industry • Repeal of Corn Laws opening 1829 trade • Standards on gauge, time • Catalog sales companies • Economies of scale
1873
• Urban development • Support for interventionism
1920
• Build-out of interstate highways • IMF, World Bank, BIS
1974
1
The Industrial Revolution
2
Age of Steam and Railways
1829
Panic 1847
3
Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering
1875
Depression 1893
4
Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production
1908
Crash 1929
5
Age of Information and Telecommunications
1971
Dot.com Collapse 2008 Credit Crisis
Source: Perez, C., “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”, 2002
Period of Institutional Adjustment
The Sixth Technological Revolution according to Merrill Lynch • SIXTH: From 2003 Age of Cleantech and Biotech In USA and Europe going globa
Source: Merrill Lynch
• Renewable energy led by solar, wind, and biofuels • Energy efficiency • Energy storage technologies • Electric vehicles • Nano materials • Synthetic biology
• Enhanced electricity transmission capabilities • Decentralization of power generation • Connection of electricity and transportation energy infrastructures • Demand/Response management • Increased availability of water and electricity • Extensive gene data banks
The race to reinvent the world starts and ends in China The size of China's green stimulus program is historically unprecedented at about 38% of the over $200 billion announced, and underpinning the country's rise as the largest emerging cleantech market.
Deel 2: Morfologie van een technologische revolutie
The new era: the symbiotic age
symbiosis between men – machine symbiosis between men – men symbiosis between men – society
Deel 3: nieuwe markten
19
Naast intuitieve of trial‐and‐error geneeskunde: get‐it‐right‐the‐first‐time benadering personalised, preventive and participatory medicine 20
IBM: Lab-on-a-chip (2010)
• Medicine 1.0: hospitals – health centres • Medicine 2.0: personal medicine • Medicine 3.0: telemedicine/lab‐on‐a‐chip
• Mobility 1.0: public transport • Mobility 2.0: private transport (cars) • Mobility 3.0: autonomous vehicles, integrated transportsystems
DARPA 2007
2009
2010
Jun.
22 2011
The State of Nevada just passed Assembly Bill No. 511 which authorizes the Department of Transportation to develop rules and regulations governing the use of driverless cars, such as Google’s concept car, on its roads.
A Car That Can Drive Itself at 80 mph Jun. 24 2011 Volkswagen is currently testing a “Temporary Auto Pilot” (TAP) system it claims will enable a car to drive itself at highway speeds up to 80 mph. The system deftly bundles semi-automatic functions monitored by the driver, with other driver assistance systems such as adaptive cruise control and a lane-monitoring system into one integrated function.
• Water 1.0: utilities • Water 2.0: welness, health • Water 3.0: decentralized purification
Reinier de Graaf Ziekenhuis Delft Terugverdientijd 3 jaar
• Energy 1.0: utilities • Energy 2.0: personal energy: solar, wkk • Energy 3.0: smart grids
The Jeju Island Smart Grid (Korea)
Deel 4: Exponentiële ontwikkeling in de elektriciteitsmarkt
Photovoltaic system 'tree' in Styria, Austria
Cell efficiencies
oktober 2010: Helianthos in Arnhem wordt verkocht
november 2010: Solland en Sunergy worden verkocht
Urgenda: particulier initiatief zonnecellen tegen bodemprijs
Prognose 2015: duurzame elektriciteit even duur als fossiele elektriciteit 2020: groei van duurzame elektriciteit hoger dan de groei van de vraag naar elektriciteit 2025: prijs van elektriciteit is laag
Deel 5: Toekomstdenken
Black Swan Phenomenon
The Innovator’s Dilemma Clayton Christensen’s work on “The Innovator’s Dilemma” show that disruptive innovations never come from market leaders
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