Green Innovation: tantangan dan peluang Farhan Helmy Mitigation Working Group
[email protected] Kuliah Umum Bandung, 1 Maret 2011
Outline
▪ Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan? ▪
Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon Growth Strategies, LCGS)
• Power by Example o Green ICT
o Urban Resoration o Pemetaan 100 Desa 1
Stock Taking 2011: Where do we stand? Interests : strong state and corporations, weak society? Management of Commons [forestry, environment, knowledge, disaster] potential of governments and market/private failures Community based Social Innovation [open source, digital contents, disaster management, 3R, etc.] independent from government, strong network but limited scale! Micro-trends as a result of Globalization and the advancement of Information and communication technologies
We!!
Society
Visi masa depan? •
•
• • • •
Peter Senge (2010), The Necessary Revolution: (1). There is no viable path forward that does not taking into account the future generations (2). Institutions matters (3). All real change is grounded in new ways of thinking and perceiption Anatole Kaletsky (2010), Capitalism 4.0: “…global capitalism will be replaced by nothing other than global capitalism. The traumatic events of 2007-2009 neither destroy or diminish the fundamental human urges that have always powered the systems – ambition, initiative, individualisms, the competitive spirit. These natural human qualities will be instead be redirected and reenergized to create a new version of capitalism that will ultimately be even more successful and productive than the system it replaced Thomas L. Friedman(2010), Hot, Flat and Crowded Rhenald Kasali (2011), The Cracking Zone Don Tapscot (2010), Macro Wikinomics: Rebooting Bussiness and the World etc.
Sumbangan emisi Indonesia signifikan secara global Emisi 2005 CO2e Indonesia total
Inggris, Perancis, Itali, Jerman (gabungan)
2.71 GtCO2e
2.8 GtCO2e
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= Transportasi Udara dan Laut Global
1.5 GtCO2e
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Gambut Indonesia
1.8 GtCO2e
~ 1 2.7 = 0.6 (UK) + 0.5 (France) + 0.6 (Italy) + 1.0 (Germany) SOURCE: McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy; Team analysis
4
5
Indonesia telah menyusun rencana pertumbuhan hijau yang dapat menjamin pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan dengan jejak karbon yang lebih rendah
Rencana pertumbuhan hijau CO2 Mitigation
Economic development
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Pada G20 Summit, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono menyampaikan komitmen target penurunan emisi sebesar 26% pada tahun 2020 sehingga Indonesia akan menjadi negara berkembang pertama yang melakukannya
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Tiga propinsi telah merespon melalui penyusunan rencana pertumbuhan hijau bersama DNPI
Institutional enablers Adaptation
Skenario Penurunan Emisi GRK 26% BAPPENAS
Emisi Indonesia diperkirakan bertambah dari 1.72 menjadi 2.95 GtCO2e antara tahun 2000 dan 2020
2,95
2
2,12
Limbah
1,72
1.5
Pertanian
1 Industri 0.5 0 2000
2005
2020
Energi dan Transportasi
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Emisi (GtonCO2e)
2.5
Kehutanan dan Lahan Gambut
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3
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Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 7
8
Emisi di Indonesia diperkirakan meningkat dari 2.1 menjadi 3.3 GtCO2e antara tahun 2005 dan 2030 Proyeksi emisi1, Juta ton CO2e
3,260 38 105
75 151
23 23 60
45 143
2,052
103
31
222
Listrik
760
650
590
LULUCF2
850
970
1,050
2005
2020
2030
129
370 110
5.07% 5.1%
4.97% 5.0% 1 Hanya meliputi emisi langsung dari tiap sektor
Share of global emissions
2 Emisi dari LULUCF berdasarkan pendekatan emisi bersih, yaitu termasuk absorpsi SUMBER: Kurva Biaya penurunan GRK Indonesia
Gambut
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810
96
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442
2,534
Bangunan Semen Minyak & Gas Pertanian Transportasi
9
Carbon abatement opportunities have been prioritized
PRELIMINARY
Do it now (potential to be realized by 2015) Start slow, then accelerate (potential to be realized by 2020) Develop now, capture over time (potential to be realized from 2015-2030)
▪ Energy efficiency electronic
▪ ▪
19 120 Mt
▪ Reforestation – mineral soils ▪
▪ ▪ ▪ Fire prevention (397 Mt) ▪ Sustainable Forest Management ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪
103 Mt
▪
▪ ▪
Water heating – commercial buildings
21 Mt
▪ REDD – smallholder agriculture
(195 Mt) (220 Mt) ▪ REDD – Estate crops (185 Mt) Peatland rehabilitation (220 Mt) REDD – timber plantation (185 Mt) Large hydro (28 Mt) Geothermal (27 Mt) 390 Mt 1,230 Mt
▪ Dedicated biomass (16 Mt) ▪ On shore wind (1 Mt)
▪ Solar PV (3 Mt) ▪ Water heating – residential (2 Mt) ▪ Livestock – feed supplement (2 Mt)
High (>25 USD/ton) 0 Mt Readily achievable
▪ Recycling new waste (17 Mt) ▪ LED Lighting (3 Mt)
7 Mt
18 Mt Some challenges Feasibility to capture (in near-term)
SOURCE: DNPI Indonesia Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cost Curve; team analysis
Difficult
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Cost Modest today (0 to 25 USD/ton)
(99 Mt) Rice management – nutrient management (4 Mt)
▪
flooding (20 Mt) Energy efficient passenger vehicles (8 Mt) Energy efficient good carrier (6 Mt) Landfill gas electricity generation (6Mt) Retrofit HVAC (2 Mt) Landfill gas direct use (2 Mt) 50 Mt
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Negative (<0 USD/ ton)
▪ Rice management – shallow
equipment and appliance in residential and commercial buildings (8 Mt) Small hydro (6 Mt) Cropland nutrient management (3 Mt)
10
Potensi penurunan emisi kita cukup tinggi
Proyeksi potensi pengurangan Juta ton, CO2e 3,260 1,161
609
225
Persentase total potensi pengurangan
Gambut
Listrik
87
61
Pertanian Transpor- Minyak tasi
1
2
3
4
5
6
50
26
10
5
4
3
SUMBER: DNPI Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve
56
Lainya
955
Emisi lainnya
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Total LULUCF pengurangan
106
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Indonesia memiliki potensi pengurangan sebesar total 2,305 MtCO2e, sekitar 70% proyeks emisi BAU sebesar 3,260 MtCO2e di tahun 2030
11
Outline
Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?
▪
Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon • Power by Example o Green ICT o Urban Resoration o Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Growth Strategies, LCGS)
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▪
National Commitment to reduce the emission 26 – 41% by 2020 Historical reference (HR) 26%
Emission rate
15%
Future emission scenario (BAU)
Reference Level (RL)
Tradeable NAMAs
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MITIGATION POTENTIAL Commercially available technology ;
2005 (Baseyear)
Environmentally sound policy and regulations
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Past trend and current emission status
Time 2020 (Baseline)
Key Elements of Japan’s New Offset Mechanism
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•Effective and Speedy Decision through Bilateral Processes •Public‐Private Initiative •Wider range of Technologies •Efficient and Flexible Process •Transparent “Additionality” concept •Building blocks towards global regime Bilateral Arrangement •Project and Accounting management •Distribution of Credits •Dispute Settlement
Government of
JAPAN
GGovernment of
Joint Projects business
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Offset Credit
business
Developing Country
GHG Reduction Clean Technologies
4
F/S for Bilateral Offset Mechanism in FY 2010(First) ◆List of FS Projects on August 10
Project
Total Budget in FY2010: 10 million USD
Indonesia Vietnam
The Institute of Energy Economics, Ja Coal thermal power pan TEPCO /Marubeni Co, Coal thermal power
India
Mizuho RI
Coal thermal power
Vietnam
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Co.Co Ltd
Electric power grid
Philippines
JFE Steel Co.
Iron and steel
India
Nippon Steel Co.
Iron and steel
Laos/Myanmar
Taiheiyo Engineering Co.
Cement
Indonesia
Mitsubishi Co.
Renewable energy
Philippines
Toshiba Co,
Renewable energy
Thailand
Yazaki Co.
Road transportation
11 Optimum controll off plantl equipment (b(by I Indonesiad T)) 12 Optimum control of plant equipment (by IT) Thailand
Yamatakek Co.
Energy saving at factoryf
Yokogawa Elec Co.
Energy saving at factory
13 Energygy savingg housingg (eco( ‐friendlyy house))
Nomura RI
Product CDM
Highly efficient coal power plant (Ultra super critical) Highly efficient coal power plant 2 (Ultra super critical) Highly efficient coal power plant 3 (Ultra super critical) Reduce power transmission loss by using highl 4 y efficient transformer Introduction of energy efficient technologies a 5 t iron and steel plant Introduction of energy efficient technologies a 6 t iron and steel plant Introduction of energy efficient technologies a 7 t cement plant Geothermal power 8 (new construction/rehabilitation) Geothermal power 9 (rehabilitation) 10 Eco‐friendly driving using digital tachograph 1
China
Covered field
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Main project entities
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Host country
5
F/S for Bilateral Offset Mechanism in FY 2010(Second) Total Budget in FY2010: 10 million USD
◆List of FS adopted on October 20, 2010 Project
Host country
Main project entities
Covered field
Vietnam
TEPCO
Nuclear power
2
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
Indonesia
Arabian Oil Co,
CCS
Mexico
JRI (SMBC, Toshiba Co, Panasonic Co,)
Energy saving at house
Vietnam
Mitsubishi Co,
Energy saving at house
Malaysia/Indonesia
Jcam Agri Co,
Chemistry
Thailand
Mizuho Co,
Chemistry
Maldives
Hitachi Plant Technologies,
Water provision
Nittsu Research Institute
Road transportation
Yasukawa Electric Co,
Energy saving at factory
JRI(SMBC, Toshiba Co,)
Energy saving at factory
3 4 5 6 7
Promotion high efficiency light and energy saving of home appliances Promotion of Home appliances (air conditioner, refrigerator, Water heater, TV, lighjt) Reducing N2O emission by using coating fertilizer Introduction of CHP facility and privately‐owned electrical power facility Energy consumption reduction of air conditioners by using deep seawater
Vietnam /Laos/Malaysia/China
8
Introduction of Digital Tachograph
9
Introduction of high efficiency motor system
10
Introduction of air‐conditioning control system Malaysia
11
REDD+
Laos
Oji Paper Group
REDD+
12
REDD+
Brazil
Kanematsu ltd,
REDD+
Sojitz( Tsukishima Kikai Co,)
Coal power
Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd,
Cement
Ube Industries,
Cement
China
More efficient utilization of low grade coal in Indonesia the power plant Introduction of energy efficient technologies at Indonesia 14 cement plant 13
15
Introduction of energy efficient technologies at Malaysia cement plant
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Introduction of Nuclear power
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1
6
16
Outline
Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?
▪
Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low • Power by Example o Green ICT o Urban Resoration o Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Carbon Growth Strategies, LCGS)
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
▪
Pengembangan Strategi Pembangunan Rendah Karbon
Kerangka Pengembangan Rencana
Rencana LCGS
Institutional enablers
Data “collation” dan pembangunan konsensus
SUMBER: DNPI – Low carbon growth team; team analysis
Institutional enablers • Mengembangkan strategi enablers kritis (e.g., tata ruang, kepemilikan lahan, monev, keterlibatan masyarakat, dll.) • Menaksir biaya total untuk mengimplementasikan berbagai peluang
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 17
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Pembangunan Ekonomi • Analisis keunggulan dan kelemahan kompetitif • Menggali potensi sumber pertumbuhan baru (rendah karbon)
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Mitigasi CO2 • Estimasi emisi saat ini dan masa datang • Menelaah potensi dan kelayakan teknis pengurangan emisi dan biaya implementasi berbagai initiatif mitigasi
Mitigasi CO2
Pembangunan Ekonomi
Faktor2 Kunci
18
85 persen dari emisi Indonesia tahun 2005 diakibatkan oleh kegiatan-kegiatan terkait dengan penggunaan lahan Emisi terkait penggunaan lahan Emisi dari sektor-sektor lainnya
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Rincian emisi Indonesia berdasarkan sumber utama Juta ton CO2e
2,052
1,739
-15%
313
129
550
243
Deforestasi Degradasi
246
Absorpsi1
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763
300
DekomposisiKebakaran gambut gambut
Pertanian
Total terkait Sektor penggunaan lainnya lahan
Total emisi
1 Termasuk absorpsi dari hutan-hutan terkelola dan perkebunan kayu SUMBER: Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve
18
19
Pengukuran 5 mitigasi teratas serta manfaat keekonomiannya Deskripsi
1 Mengurangi deforestasi
Zero Burning
Manajemen 4 Kehutanan berkelanjutan
Penggunaan lahan terdegradasi Meningkatkan produktivitas pertanian Terlibat dalam perdagangan karbon untuk memperoleh kesempatan konservasi hutan
570 MtCO2e
▪ ▪ ▪
Melarang pembakaran sebagai sarana persiapan lahan Membentuk regu pemadam kebakaran Menjamin penegakan tegas dan penalti bagi pelanggaran hukum
310 MtCO2e
▪ ▪ ▪
Rehabilitasi lahan gambut Penyiraman kembali lahan gambut Manajemen pengairan
250 MtCO2e
▪ ▪
Mengurangi penebangan berdampak Manajemen silvikultural
240 MtCO2e
▪ Penghutanan kembali dan konservasi “lahan yang cukup kritis” yang 5 Penghutanan kembali
telah rusak sebagian
SUMBER: DNPI – Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve
150 MtCO2e
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Mengurangi 3 dekomposisi gambut
▪ ▪ ▪
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2
Penguranan, 2030
20
Strategi pertumbuhan karbon secara terperinci telah disusun Rencana Pertumbuhan Rendah Karbon Indonesia
Kalteng
Elemen-elemen Utama LCGS
Strategi-strategi sektor
▪ ▪ Kaltim
Strategi-strategi daerah
▪ ▪ ▪
Besarnya daerah dan penggunaan lahan Emisi dan potensi pengurangan GDP dan ketenagakerjaan
Implementasi dan enabler ▪ Rencana aksi mendetil ▪ Enabler penting yang dibutuhkan ▪ Perkiraan total biaya SUMBER: DNPI; Pemda Kaltim, Pemda Kalteng, Pemda Jambi
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Jambi
Peluang penurunan, proyek pilot, kebijakan yang dibutuhkan Kelapa sawit, kehutanan, pertanuan, batubara, minyak & gas
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Strategi pembangunan ekonomi berkelanjutan ▪ Kelebihan dan kekurangan yang kompetitif ▪ Sumber pertumbuhan baru
Kalteng dan Jambi merupakan propinsi yang menjadi target pengembangan pembangunan ekonomi rendah karbon Diusulkan untuk dikembangkan
LCGS yang sudah dikembangkan Aceh Kaltim Kalbar
Riau
Papua
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Jambi
Kalteng Lampung
Sulsel Jabar
Jateng Bali
SUMBER: DNPI
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
Sumatra Utara
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 21
22
Outline
Stock Taking 2011: tantangan dan visi masa depan?
▪
Profil dan Potensi Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK)Indonesia
• Pengembangan Strategi Ekonomi Rendah Karbon (Low Carbon
• “Power by Example” o Green ICT o Urban Resoration o Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Growth Strategies, LCGS)
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
▪
Dua peran penting intervensi ICT dalam Reengineering proses akan berkontribusi secara signifikan dalam pengurangan emisi GRK: (1). Aksi mitigasi diluar sektor ICT (2). Sektor ICT
Peran (2)
(1).Peran ICT dalam Intevensi aksi mitigasi diluar sektor ICT: konsumsi material konsumsi energi dan listrik mobilitas orang, barang dan jasa efisiensi aktivitas efisiensi ruang penyimpanan limbah
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• • • • • •
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Peran (1)
Sumber: www.smart2020.org
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 23
(2). Measuring, Reporting and Verification(MRV) untuk mendukung aksi mitigasi dari Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF)
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Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 24
(3). Sapporo Initiative: Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)
Research and Technology
•
Capacity Building: Technology/instruments Modeling assessment Integrated initiatives on low-carbon economy, such as Borneo Initiative
Networking:
• • •
International partnership on Indonesia’s Peatland Mapping Low carbon economy Data sharing
Global Negotiation Issues:
•
Leverage of peatland issues. Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 25
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• • •
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
• • • • •
Integrated Indonesia Peatland Mapping Systems to support REDD+ and MRV Thematic and Integrated Research on the ground Open-source based data and tools Japan-Indonesia Consortium Low carbon economy etc
(4). www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net
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Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 26
(5). Green Campus and Urban Restoration (status Desember 2010) Roadmap Development • • •
“Proof of Concept” • •
Green Campus Urban Restoration
Indonesia Carbon Update Network(ICU-Net) • •
Knowledge Warehouse on Green Campus and Urban Restoration Hub of DNPI-Geo-Design Forum on Climate Change Hub of DNPI-Open Source Initiative
Join Publication •
Policy Memo on (1). Green Campus (2). Urban Restoration
. Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 27
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•
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
Institutional Transformation Low Carbon Economy strategic research on Green Campus and Urban restoration Community Engagement
(4). Urban Restoration Program Summary: Dialogue on Green Industry and Green Innovation (Bandung, 15 November 2010)
Indonesia Carbon Update Network (ICU-Net) Asia/Africa Carbon Update Network(AACU-Net)
Public Participation and Rebranding Campaign Green Branding New Urbanism
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 28
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Green Planning: Reengineering Ecological Network Vertical Development Community Engagement
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Green Process Innovation: From Linier Metabolism to Circular Metabolism
Adopting Ecological Network Approach : Bandung City Larger Vegetation Corridor Core Area Connectivity GALERI LIPI
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KASUM
PUSAIR
BS
KAMPUNG
BUTIK SABUGA
BATAN KAMPUNG BONBIN
ITB
ITB CIWALK SALMAN KAMPUNG KAMPUNG Source: BPLHD Jabar, Bandung, 15 Nov.2010
)
PASAR PDAM
PASUPATI
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Biodiversity in Bandung
Inisiatif Pemetaan 100 Desa
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Stakeholders: DNPI (GOI), UI, ITB, USU, Itenas, Hokkaido University(Universitas), Geo-Eye, ESRI, Waindo Spektra, INBIMA (Industri), IA-GD ITB, Sabang Merauke Circle,, etc.
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Data Content • Spatial dynamics, covering interactions among land use and ecosystem that influence spatial changes. • Wealth production systems, covering production systems employed in the area as a result of intensive interactions of technology and economic factors. It may operate as internal interaction or may be as a result of external influence. • Institutional structures, covering factors that drive land use change, such as government policy on industry, tax and subsidy scheme for agriculture development, etc. • Social capital, covering social, economic and institutional factors rooted in the community that may influence individual or community behavior and drive (de/re)forestation and land use change processes.
The Screenshots of Land Cover/Use Changes in Banyumas Region (19902007)
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Finding (2) Trend of Land Use Change Pattern 60%
Percentage of the Area
50% 40% 30%
10% 0%
1995
2000
2005
2007
Forest
17.70%
4.07%
2.53%
1.24%
1.24%
Mix Garden+Plantation
28.18%
38.79%
32.51%
24.92%
22.04%
Settlement
0.63%
13.90%
17.55%
20.23%
23.54%
Paddy Field
7.42%
23.27%
29.64%
43.12%
48.00%
Dryland Agriculture
24.09%
11.13%
7.32%
3.43%
1.00%
(1). In the period of 1990-1995 deforestation is hugely occurred, and has converted more than 80% of forest area and is subsequently followed by land use exchange/shifting among different classes, mainly increasing of mix garden and plantation, settlement and paddy field areas. But, it is decreasing in dry land agriculture area. (2). From 1995 onward, the trend of mix garden and plantation and dry-land agriculture changes are steadily declining. However, settlement and paddy field are still continues to increase, reaching at 23.54% and 48% respectively in 2007 . (3). The rate of change of mix garden and plantation is lower than that of dry land agriculture where closed to the paddy field and settlement areas. This may indicates that land use changes in flat areas most likely occurred as a result of settlement and paddy field expansion. They may strong correlation between land uses, physical constraints as well as other factors/driving force (economy, policy, market access, ownerships, etc.). (4). It seems that since 2005 deforestation is likely to stop and reach stability.
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1990
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
20%
Causal Model of Demand for Community Forest Management
Living location +
(downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3)
+
Demand for community management
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+
+
Community efficacy to sustainable forest management
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+
Perceived seriousness of deforestation
+
Job dummy (Farmer = 1)
Result of Path analysis Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
R-square=0.137
all sample
Living location
(N=502)
0.152***
0.112* -0.058
R-square=0.123
0.289*** CFI=0.976 TLI=0.780 RMSEA=0.077
(downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3)
-0.070 0.192***
Community efficacy to sustainable forest management
0.205***
R-square=0.087
Job dummy (Farmer = 1)
R-square=0.023
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Demand for community management
0.374***
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-0.169***
Perceived seriousness of deforestation
Path Analysis in 2groups Group: High government trust
Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10:*
R-square=0.115
(N=219)
Living location
0.051
0.181* -0.029
R-square=0.306
0.347*** CFI=0.959 TLI=0.633 RMSEA=0.110
(downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3)
-0.150* 0.174**
Community efficacy to sustainable forest management R-square=0.083
0.223**
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Demand for community management
0.311***
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-0.418***
Perceived seriousness of deforestation
Job dummy (Farmer = 1)
R-square=0.00
Path Analysis in 2groups Group: Low government trust
Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10
R-square=0.242
(N=234)
Living location
0.226***
0.147 0.000
R-square=0.134
0.324*** CFI=0.959 TLI=0.633 RMSEA=0.110
(downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream = 3)
-0.046 0.102
Community efficacy to sustainable forest management
0.244***
R-square=0.081
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Demand for community management
0.500***
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-0.065
Perceived seriousness of deforestation
Job dummy (Farmer = 1)
R-square=0.0
Path Analysis in 2groups Group: High community trust
Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10
R-square=0.100
(N=277)
Living location
0.102
0.184** -0.041
R-square=0.218
0.312*** CFI=0.971 TLI=0.738 RMSEA=0.089
(downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream =3
-0.101 0.168**
Community efficacy to sustainable forest management
0.262***
R-square=0.105
Printed 6/30/2009 9:15:07 AM
Demand for community management
0.310***
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
-0.313***
Perceived seriousness of deforestation
Job dummy (Farmer = 1)
R-square=0.0
Path Analysis in 2groups Group: Low community trust
Significance probability p<0.01:***, p<0.05:**, p<0.10
R-square=0.295
(N=176)
Living location
0.172*
0.086 0.022
R-square=0.146
0.368***
CFI=0.971 TLI=0.738 RMSEA=0.089
(downstream = 1) (middle stream = 2) (upstream =3
-0.033 0.103
Community efficacy to sustainable forest management R-square=0.058
0.192**
Printed 6/30/2009 9:15:07 AM
Demand for community management
0.548***
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
-0.063
Perceived seriousness of deforestation
Job dummy (Farmer = 1)
R-square=0.0
What’s Next?
PENDEKATAN STRATEGIK
•
Pengarusutamaan di tingkat nasional ? “Power by example” (national, sub-national, project, community) Intel Inside, Wall-mart Outside Lumbung Pengetahuan dan Jejaring (Knowledge Warehouse and Information Networking) Reformasi Kurikulum – pengarusutamaan isu perubahan iklim pada kurikulum pendidikan
• • • •
Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSi), www.gesi.org Cool IT, Greenpeace International, www.greenpeace.org Creative Change Education Solutions, www.creativechange.net Common Room Foundation, www.commonroom.info
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 39
Printed 6/30/2009 9:15:07 AM
BEST PRACTICES
Working Draft - Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM
• • • •
In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip (Daniel L. Reardon)
TERIMAKASIH!!
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim
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